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2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is valid so far. Big red box is the open bear gap on the daily chart. 5500 would be a very good place for the bears to step in and make it resistance. I expect 5462 to be tested tomorrow and hopefully 5400 also. Odds favor the bears as long as we stay below 5540. current market cycle: trading range - if we drop below 5390, we are in a bear trend inside the big trading range. key levels: 5400 -5540 bull case: Bulls had a decent pullback today but it was still an inside bar. They need follow through and prices above 5540 to make more bears cover their shorts. Bulls had 3 good legs up today but bears were equally strong. Most of the move upwards was during the Globex session. Until bulls break strongly above 5500, they don’t have many arguments on their side. Invalidation is below 5460. bear case: Bears sold the rips today and kept the market mostly in balance around the open price 5462. They need to step in to keep the market below the current bear trend line and the 4h ema. Since we have formed a triangle, market is in balance between 5450-5500. The higher time frames support the bears for a second leg down. For tomorrow I expect the triangle to continue some more until we get a breakout and odds favor the bears. I think 5500 is a decent place to short with SL 5540 or 5560. Invalidation is above 5540. short term: Bearish as long as we stay below 5540. I want at least a retest of the lows 5400 but I hope for a bigger second leg down to 5000/5100. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Not yet. Will watch tomorrow’s price action and short on weakness. trade of the day: Longing 5450 was good all day and shorting above 5480. Looks way easier on the 15m tf than it was. Almost always is.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
WTI continues to be under pressure, notable data this weekTVC:USOIL remains under pressure, after data showed weaker-than-expected US employment data in August, which was mixed with support from OPEC+ oil producers delaying supply increases. US government data showed job growth in August was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, suggesting the Federal Reserve may not need to cut interest rates very significant this month. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, less than expected to increase by 160,000. (July's increase was revised down to 89,000, the smallest increase since December 2020). As for the geopolitical situation, as the Israeli army battles Hamas-led rebels in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, medics said on Saturday that Israel's military assault on Gaza has killed at least at least 61 people in 48 hours. The warring parties continue to blame each other for the failure of mediators including Qatar, Egypt and the US to broker a ceasefire. The United States is preparing to present a new proposal, but the prospects for a breakthrough appear slim as the differences between the two sides remain wide. In general, there are still no notable new points regarding the geopolitical situation, so it will have less impact on the market than before. This week will release OPEC's monthly crude oil market report, EIA's monthly short-term energy outlook report and IEA's monthly crude oil market report, which are the focus of the US oil market. this week and the market will pay special attention to them. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL still in a downtrend with technical conditions leaning towards the possibility of a price decrease. First, the long-term technical trend of WTI crude oil will be noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). Although WTI crude oil stopped falling after reaching the 1% trend-following Fibonacci extension that readers noticed in the previous issue, this is not a trending support so once WTI crude oil Breaking below the 66.96USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci will condition the price to continue falling. The next target level of WTI crude oil will be noticed at 64.55 – 63.66USD. As long as WTI crude oil remains in the price channel and below the EMA21, it still has a main bearish trend with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 66.96 – 64.55 – 63.66USD Resistance: 68.84 – 69.77USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY trending down, Yen supported by BOJ attitudeAlthough US non-farm data in August was not as expected. But the Bank of Japan has recently taken a hawkish stance on interest rate hikes, which has also significantly helped the yen's recovery. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 jobs last month, while July's gain was revised down to 89,000. On the weekly chart of OANDA:USDJPY The downtrend still prevails but is temporarily limited by the technical level of 141,682. Note to readers in the previous issue for USD/JPY. Although USD/JPY is recovering, the weekly trend is being shaped by the price channel and once USD/JPY breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level it will be eligible to continue falling with the next target level being possible. can reach 134,526 price points of fibonancci 0.786%. As long as USD/JPY remains within the price channel and below the EMA21, the main outlook remains bearish and the recovery levels should only be considered a short-term technical correction. In addition, the confluence point between the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.50% Fibonacci level will be the current closest resistance. USD/JPY downtrend will have important positions in trading as follows. Support: 141,682 – 140,401 Resistance: 144,528 – 147,120
Short
by Xayah_trading
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Very strong breakout below previous support around 70 and market is on it’s way to test the 2024 low 64.46. Oil has not traded below 63 for more than a year. Bulls are in pain but some pullback is expected next week. Quote from last week: comment: Not much changed. On the weekly it looks more bearish than it is. Until one side get’s a daily close above or below previous lows/highs, market continues to contract and the breakout is near. Weekly ema is flat as can be. Either scalp to both sides or wait for the breakout. Bears want to get below 70 and bulls want 78 and higher. Odds favor the bulls around 72 to trade back up to at least 76. comment: Bears did surprise me big time on Monday where they closed below the August low but the bigger surprise was the follow through on Tuesday where they closed below 70. That was the lowest close for 8 months and bears just sold it relentlessly on every small rip. We are now 4% away from the January low and given the strong selling on much higher volume, we will likely test below 65$ next week. All pullbacks last week were mostly sideways and every time market got near or touched the 4h 20ema, it sold off big time. Any pullback the bulls get, bears will probably continue and try to keep 70 resistance. Selling 67.67 is probably not a good idea so I what for Monday and if we can get near the 4h ema again and there I’d look for weakness. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 60-72 bull case: Bulls are really trying if you look at the 1h chart but every rip bigger than 100 ticks is sold heavily by huge bear bars. Right now at 67.67 I don’t think we are at a bigger support level where bulls want to fight this. Could happen on Monday but I think many more bulls wait for 65 to be hit before longing this. First objective for the bulls is to make the market go sideways and then get a 4h bar close above the ema. Anything above 71 would surprise me. Invalidation is below 67. bear case: Bears broke strongly below very big previous support and trying to test the 2024 at 64.46. They are in total control of the market until bulls can close a bull bar above the 4h ema. So we have a clear target with 65 or even 64.46 and a clear invalidation level of the max bearishness with the 4h ema. Invalidation is above 70.32 outlook last week: short term : Bullish above 75, bearish below 73. Bulls want 77 and bears want 72 or lower. → Last Sunday we traded 73.55 and now we are at 67.67. Clear levels given, hope you took shorts below 73. short term: Full bear mode but a pullback is expected. Good r:r shorts are to be found around 69-70. Above 70.32 we will see a more complex pullback and I’d be out of shorts and wait. medium-long term: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade : None chart update: Added currently valid bear trend lines
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Neutral. All bull wedges broken but the broad bull channel continues. Market only moved sideways, so no deeper meaning to this. Bears could not get a single daily close below the daily ema. Unless that changes, bulls are heavily favored to try 2600. Bears are only allowed to speak again once they have a daily close below 2500. Quote from last week: comment: Weekly inside bar. I am not lazy but I do not see any value in making up more words to fill the page so you can stay busy longer reading this. Market is neutral around 2530. Bulls need a daily close above 2570 and bears one below 2500. That’s it. Structure is still bullish. We have a big bull wedge on the weekly/monthly chart, nested bull wedges on lower time frames and sort of a bull channel upwards. I very slightly favor the bears to test 2500 again but only because bears closed last week at the lows. Daily ema held for 3 weeks now and there is no reason why it should break now and we are only 10 points above it. comment: 4th week between 2500 and 2570. 3rd consecutive bear bar on the weekly chart but does that mean this is bearish? Hell no. Bears still have no daily close below the daily ema and until that changes, bulls are in control but only barely anymore. The longer a trading range continues, the more neutral the market becomes and the odds for both sides are 50/50 again. No deeper meaning to this until we break below 2500 or above 2570. current market cycle: Trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months. Bulls are currently still trading above the previous highs, which is sort of confirmation of the breakout but I am not 100% convinced. Need a daily close above 2570 for that. —unchanged key levels: 2400 - 2570 bull case: Bears not doing enough so bulls are happy to continue. They want 2600 next and have all arguments on their side as long as they stay above 2500. Only updated 2517 to 2500. Still unchanged bull case for weeks now. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. Exactly the same sentences as last week. —unchanged Invalidation is above 2570. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient. → Last Sunday we traded 2527 and now we are at 2524. Hope you did not longed the highs or shorted the lows. Spot on outlook that was. short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient. —unchanged because we moved 3 points from Friday’s close to Friday’s close. medium-long term: Above 2570 I will update this. Until then we are in a trading range 2400-2570. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed bull gap to 2490. It’s still there on the weekly but it currently does not help with the daily/weekly updates.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024. Quote from last week: comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows. Invalidation is below 5390. bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out. Invalidation is above 5540. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. → Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday. short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Full bear mode. Bull trap and of August after making a new ath. Market is clearly in a hurry to go down again. Stairs up, elevator down. Most likely the bear gap to 18750 will stay open and every short sl has to be around that price. 1. tp is 50% pullback 18000 and as of now I expect a pullback there or more sideways movement. Below 18000 we will see 17400 fast. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls printed a new ath and if you would look at the RSI, which I don’t, it would show a divergence. You really really don’t need the RSI to tell you that. Even so, market could go higher and there is no reason to short this yet. I am 90% certain this is not a W1 of a new bull trend that will break above the bull wedge but rather a retest of the highs, in this case a higher high, and it will reverse soon enough. A bigger pullback is overdue but that does not mean you can short this yet. comment: Selling is already too strong for a pullback in a bull trend. We are in a big trading range and on our way to test the lower range somewhere between 17000 - 17500. Do we get there in a straight line like we went up in August? Highly unlikely but so was the climactic selling and the insane reversal over the past 5 weeks. current market cycle: big trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: As expected, the first decent selling on Monday and bulls are running for the exits. Climactic buying, followed by climactic selling. I don’t expect the bulls to fight this, like the bears did not fight anything from 17400 to 18990. The 50% pullback at 18000 is a decent target where the bulls could try to stall it and hope for a bounce. At this point it’s useless to try to call a top or anything beyond the next 2 weeks. If anything, it’s 50/50 if we make another ath this year or not. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears came around right below 19000 and produced strong enough selling to trigger many stops. Bulls are fearful that we test all the way back down to 17000 and that’s why we don’t see much resistance from them. In any bear case over the next weeks, the bear gap to 18730 has to stay open. On the weekly chart it’s now an expanding triangle which is a form of a trading range. To hit 17000 over the next 1-2 weeks would be amazing for the bears again but I highly doubt they could get the market below, without any serious deterioration of macro schmackro stuff. Something has to break for this market to trade back to not maximum overvalued bubble territory. If you don’t think dax above 18000 is bubble territory while gdp is -0.3% for 2023 and flat at best in 2024, I can’t help you. Invalidation is above 18700. outlook last week: short term: Neutral again. I’m confident we will reverse soon but it’s too early to be looking for shorts. Bears need to start making lower lows and lower highs before I start. What do I need to go long? Only scalps after pullbacks for me. Very little interest in buying up here because I do not see this going to 19200. → Last Sunday we traded 18906 and now we are at 18301. It was too early for shorts last Sunday but during Tuesday’s session it became clearer that the market wanted to go down. short term: Bearish but only on momentum again. Any pullback has to stay below 18700. Next targets for bears are 18000 and below that is 17500. Fun times ahead. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Decent to be in swing shorts now. Stop has to be 18700 or even 19000. Will join the bears on Monday, if they go straight below 18270 or on a decent pullback to 18500. chart update: Nothing. Removed the bull wedge and added the bear gap.
XETR:DAXShort
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 09 - Sep 13]This week, international gold prices fell from 2,507 USD/oz to 2,471 USD/oz in the first sessions of the week. After that, gold price recovered to 2,529 USD/oz, then dropped to 2,485 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,497 USD/oz. Recent US economic data has played an important role in shaping developments in the gold market. The US August jobs report fell short of expectations. While economists predicted 160,000 new jobs would be created in August, the actual number was only 142,000 jobs. However, the published data was lower than forecast but still higher than the previous period. The US unemployment rate in August decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%. But this is still high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year ago. These labor market figures, along with recent US inflation reports, have reinforced expectations that the Fed is about to cut interest rates. This prediction is further fueled by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Conference on August 24, in which he noted that it is time for monetary policy to adjust. In the medium and long term, many economic experts believe that gold prices will increase sharply because the more the FED cuts interest rates, the more the USD and US Treasury bond yields will weaken, increasing the appeal of gold. . Furthermore, central banks have been and are continuing to buy gold reserves. Technically, there is no debate about the uptrend of gold as the Weekly time frame technical chart clearly shows this. However, this rising wave is reaching the resistance level around the fibo expansion mark at fibo 161.8. In theory, it is possible that the price reaching this mark will have reversal phases, which are corrective declines to consolidate the uptrends. next bullish period. The next fibo milestone will be around 2,590-3,000 usd/oz. Next week, the market will pay attention to US August CPI data, and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting. 📌Currently, considering the H4 technical chart, the gold price is still moving sideways in a wide range, specifically fluctuating from 2,470 - 2,530 usd/oz. If the resistance level of 2530 is broken, in the immediate future the gold price will rise around the round resistance level of 2600. In case the support level of 2470 is broken, the gold price will fall back to around the threshold of 2,430 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.500 – 2.503 – 2.530USD Resistance: 2.484 – 2.470USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2429 - 2431⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2425
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Outlook for new era level, most important data of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD remains in a strong uptrend after yesterday's breakout, an outlook for a new bull run and weekly target levels. On this trading day, the market will receive the most important data of the week and will create major fluctuations in the entire financial market in general, and the gold market in particular. On Thursday, as weak US ADP jobs data weighed on the US Dollar, gold futures broke out strongly towards the weekly target level. The United States releases the ADP jobs report on Thursday, showing private sector employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 99,000 in August, a new low since January 2021, lower many expected and months before. Today (Friday), the market will receive the US nonfarm payrolls report for August. Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 160,000 in August, following an increase of 114,000 in July. Investors also need to closely monitor US unemployment data. Surveys show the US unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2% from 4.3% in August. If the unemployment rate in August is equal to or higher than July, gold prices will receive important fundamental support due to the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates even more sharply, which could completely push up gold prices. all-time high or refresh all-time high. On the other hand, if non-farm payroll data is lower than expected or equal to the previous month, gold prices will be strongly supported by this when both employment data and unemployment rate are released at the same time. The current basic trend of gold will still maintain an uptrend when supported by most macroeconomic conditions such as geopolitical risks with many potential driving forces for price increases, supported by the path of policy changes of the Government. Fed and the weakening of the USD as well as US bond yields. The basic picture will shape the trend for quite a long time, but it will be the main trend that shapes all technical changes. Analysis of technical prospects for CITYINDEX:XAUUSD Gold is still aiming for the weekly upside price target presented to readers in Sunday's weekly edition, and as price activity is above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension it should qualify for a bullish outlook. in short term. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up but still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, within the price channel and above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it is still trending up in the short term. More broadly, as long as gold remains within the price channel, any pullback should be considered a technical correction and not the primary trend. During the day, the rising prospect of gold prices will be noticed by the following levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2533 - 2531⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2537 →Take Profit 1 2526 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2521 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2496 - 2498⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2492 →Take Profit 1 2503 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2508
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD corrects, recovers and stabilizesOANDA:XAUUSD recovered and stabilized after a significant correction yesterday. At one point, gold dropped sharply by about 33 US Dollars, but up to now, the recovery momentum has helped gold return to a short-term technical uptrend. The August manufacturing PMI index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday remained below 50, a sign of economic slowdown. However, the employment component of the report improved slightly. ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 from 46.8 in August, below expectations of 47.5. After the release of the ISM report, US 10-year Treasury yields (US10Y) fell, leading to a weakening of the USD. Affected by the decline in US bond yields and the USD, gold prices recovered after hitting a low of 2,473 USD/ounce. This week will continue to be highly volatile due to the impact of a series of US economic data with the release of JOLTS job openings, ADP employment changes and non-farm payrolls (NFP) data to be released. • JOLTS U.S. job openings are expected to be 8.1 million in July, down from 8.184 million in June. • US ADP employment growth in August is expected to increase to 150,000 from 122,000 in July. • In addition, employment growth in US non-farm payrolls in August is expected to increase from 114,000 to 163,000, while the unemployment rate may decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%. If the US jobs report is weaker than expected, it will prompt market assessments of faster interest rate cuts to reappear, which will further support gold prices and continue to create pressure on investors. with USD. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold had a significant correction decline in yesterday's trading session, on the daily chart, the gold price still has enough room to rise, as it receives support from the confluence area of EMA21, Fibonacci extension 0.618% and the bottom edge of the price channel, a very important area for the short-term uptrend was noticed by readers in a short comment yesterday. In the short term, if gold moves above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, there will be conditions for a new bullish cycle and the upside outlook for the weekly target is fixed at 2,531 – 2,544USD. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, and within the price channel, it remains technically bullish in the short term. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is showing signs of bending and pointing up, a signal that the bullish outlook is becoming positive. During the day, gold's uptrend is noted by the same technical levels. Support: 2,471 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2516 - 2514⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2520 →Take Profit 1 2509 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2504 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2459 - 2461⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2455 →Take Profit 1 2466 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2471
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Jobs data is coming, GOLD recovers around 2,500USDOANDA:XAUUSD continues to recover significantly after a sharp adjustment at the beginning of the week, fueled by lower economic data that means the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates more aggressively in the near future. On this trading day (Thursday), the market will receive the release of ADP employment data, which is expected to buck short-term trends. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the number of job openings fell to 7.67 million from a downward revision. 7.91 million last month. Data were below expectations of all expected surveys. The JOLTS job vacancy report was one of the labor force indicators that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen valued most when she was chair of the Federal Reserve. This index is also labor market data that the Fed is very interested in. Readers can refer to the fact that the Fed has recently mentioned a lot about employment issues, by most important officials. The US employment change (ADP) report, initial jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report will be released later this week. This trading day the market will first pay attention to the US ADP data, which will continue the important data week and provide short-term trends. US ADP employment growth in August is expected to increase to 150,000 from 122,000 in July. Additionally, U.S. nonfarm payrolls job growth in August is expected to increase from 114,000 to 163,000, while the unemployment rate could fall from 4.3% to 4.2%. If jobs data is weaker than expected, this will continue to push gold prices higher and create pressure on the USD. Employment data has been closely watched so far, but in this period it will be even more important because it is a visible "directional arrow" to evaluate the path of interest rate cuts by the Reserve. United States of America. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold remains stable with the main uptrend in the short, medium and long term. After receiving support from the key confluence area noted by readers in the previous issue at the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, EMA21 and the lower edge of the price channel, it rose to reach the recovery target level. initial price point at 2,500USD. Looking ahead, if gold manages to move above the $2,500 base price and break above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension it would qualify for a weekly upside target of $2,531 in the short term and beyond to 2,544USD. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices remains unchanged at notable levels and will be listed for readers as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503 – 2,531USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2516 - 2514⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2520 →Take Profit 1 2509 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2504 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2459 - 2461⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2455 →Take Profit 1 2466 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2471
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. dax futures comment: Bears kept the 140 point gap to Tuesday’s close open and that shows strength. Bulls could not get a bar above the 1h ema today and I’d be surprised if it stays that way. Bears are in control and they want a second leg down. A measured move would bring us to almost exactly 18000. Absolutely favoring the bears to do that instead of bulls getting above 18800 again. current market cycle: huge trading range (below 18500 the minor bear trend inside the range is confirmed) key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case : Bulls can be happy if they can keep the market going sideways. Today’s open price was not tested and we closed above the daily ema, which shows some strength by the bulls. For higher prices bulls need a strong 1h close above the ema and that’s all I can come up with for the bulls right now. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears have the big round number 18500 to break for lower prices. They are clearly in control again and they want to stay below the 1h ema for a measured move down to 18000. Below 18570 I expect many bull stops to be hit and we will test 18500 and there I expect bulls to come around more strongly again and trying to hold it. We already have a decent looking bear channel or wedge on the 1h tf. I want to see what the Globex session brings and then I will decide tomorrow morning if I do a swing short for 18000 with a stop 18800/18850. Invalidation is above 18750. short term: Bears are in control and the odds favor a second leg down. Above 18700 I get more neutral and below 18570 I expect 18500 to follow soon and if bears break that, we will likely get the big second leg. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: Will decide Thursday morning if I do a swing short. 18000 would be my first tp and stop at least 18820. trade of the day: Buying the open was by far the best one. Otherwise shorting 18670 the next best thing.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Many of the same arguments as for dax. Very strong leg down and bears want another one. Measured move target would be 5350-5370. Market closed 5 points above the open, so a big nothingburger but both sides made money today. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls made money today if they were quick to take profits but the problem is, that the pullback was not high enough to seriously question the bear case. Bulls need to fight for 5500 or we get the second leg down. Same easy if-this-then-that scenario for most indexes. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears confirmed the leg down with lower lows and a shallow pullback, which they sold again. They closed below the daily ema and also left a bear gap open, though a small one. First target below 5500 is 5420 which is the 50% pullback from the bull rally. Invalidation is above 5666. short term: Bearish. Below 5500 I become full bear again but can also see this going a bit more sideways. I do expect this week to close deep red and below 5500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope and will only do on bigger swing short it will probably be dax. trade of the day : Very strong open and longs were good. After that it was so two sided and no obvious amazing trade. In hindsight it was an obvious short but not as it was happening imo. Market had strong two sided trading during news releases. After bar 11 close I expected market to close nearer to the open price and scalped some shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
POPCAT: Our Next Crypto Swing PlayIt's been a while since we posted any crypto swing trades. The last few months have been particularly challenging for swing plays, and we made very good profits just by scalping in August. However, we've been closely monitoring the higher time frames, and we believe we've found a potential play with POPCAT. For this trade to work out, we need BTC to behave, but so far, everything looks good, and the depth of the retracement is consistent with prior pullbacks. Recently, POPCAT has shown a change in structure after what seems to be a completed Wave (2). We want to bid on this continuation with a wider stop loss because there's a 12H FVG below that is relatively important for altcoins. There's a chance that we tag this FVG before rising higher, though a body close below it would invalidate our bullish outlook. Therefore, we're cautious but still want to place this bid, and we will DCA down if necessary. We'll keep you updated whenever we make any moves. As for targets, we're looking to go above the high of the latest COS, then the fair value gap above, and finally, a continuation above the current Wave (1). If we get this far, we would let it run as a moonbag, but we'll keep you informed regardless.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc