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#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Bearish. 5730 was expected support and if bears are strong, 5800 stays resistance now. Expecting more sideways movement before another impulse down. Next target for bears is 5600 and bulls need a daily close above 5800. Thursday’s selling was strong enough for more downside but could also just have been distorted price action since it was end of the month. Friday was disappointing for bears already, which is why I think the selling is not as strong as hoped. Quote from last week: comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870. comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5700 - 6000 bull case: 6000 remains bulls target but if we get a daily close below 5700, we will likely see 5550 before 6000. If we stay above, we will continue sideways. Invalidation is below 5700. bear case: Bears need to keep the pullback shallow and probably below the daily ema 5830. If they manage, their next target is 5670 which is the weekly 20ema and below that is 5555 for the measured move target, 50% retracement and July low. Invalidation is above 5830. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000. → Last Sunday we traded 5846 and now we are at 5758. Outlook was ok. short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Added current valid bear trend lines and a potential bearish wave series down to 5555.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 04 - Nov 08]This week, after rising to 2,790 USD/oz, OANDA:XAUUSD then continuously dropped sharply to 2,733 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,736 USD/oz. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US's October non-farm payrolls (NFP) report showed that the country only created 12,000 jobs, significantly lower than the forecast of 100,000 jobs due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. recent storms. Although the US economy created fewer jobs than expected, the country's unemployment rate in October remained unchanged at 4.1%. Meanwhile, wage inflation increased. Specifically, average hourly earnings increased 0.4% last month, higher than the forecast of 0.3%. In particular, the US's basic Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for October - the FED's favorite inflation measure - remained at a high level of 2.7%, unchanged from the level of July and October. All of the above economic data show that the FED is in a difficult position when production activities decline sharply, the labor market weakens, but inflation remains continuously high. However, many forecasts are likely that the FED will still cut interest rates by another 0.25% next week, but will cautiously announce the direction of interest rate cuts in the next meetings. In addition to the FED meeting, next week there will also be the US Presidential election on November 5. According to forecasts of many experts, it is likely that Donald Trump will be re-elected as US President. If Mr. Trump becomes US President in the next term, he will impose strong tariffs on imported goods as promised during the election campaign. This will push inflation up, forcing the FED to delay interest rate cuts, and may even have to raise interest rates again. Thus, next week's gold price is at risk of being double-impacted by the FED meeting and the US presidential election. 📌Technically, in the H4 chart, gold price still shows a clear uptrend when the price trades above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if gold prices still trade above the 2720 threshold, we can expect gold prices to continue to maintain an upward trend. In case the price will return to a downward adjustment cycle if the 2710 support zone is broken, correspondingly in the H1 chart, the gold price forms a head and shoulders model. If this model is correct, the gold price will find its way back around mark 2650. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.700 – 2.710 – 2.720USD Resistance: 2.786 – 2.768 – 2.745USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2776 - 2774⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2780 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2645
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD prices fall under the weight of yields and exchange ratesWorld gold prices fell in the trading session on Friday (November 1) under pressure from rising US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate. However, the need to hedge risks ahead of the US presidential election next week helps limit the decline in gold prices. At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market decreased by 7.9 USD/oz compared to the closing level of the previous session, equivalent to a decrease of 0.29%, to 2,736.5 USD/oz - according to data from the exchange. World gold prices decreased by 0.44% this week. On Thursday, spot gold prices set an all-time record at more than 2,790 USD/oz. The main source of downward pressure on gold prices this week is the increasing trend of US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased nearly 10 basis points on Friday, reaching 4.382%, the highest in the past 4 months - according to data from CNBC news agency. Yields increased due to falling bond prices as investors strongly sold US Treasury bonds ahead of the US presidential election next Tuesday. The reason leading to investors selling US debt is concerns about the increasing federal budget deficit whether Mr. Donald Trump or Ms. Kamala Harris are elected. The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of six other major currencies, increased 0.33%, closing Friday's session at 104.32 points - according to data from MarketWatch. This week, the index increased by 0.06%, bringing the total increase in the past month to 1.75%. The USD is increasing in value because this currency is also promoting its role as a safe investment channel in the context of the approaching US election.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has conditions to increase with expectations of recoveryOn Thursday (October 31), some traders chose to take profits, causing gold prices to fall again, falling 2% and reaching a low of 2,731 USD/oz. As of the time of writing, Friday, November 1, gold has recovered to 2,746 USD/oz. Safe-haven demand ahead of the US presidential election has pushed gold prices up for the fourth consecutive month, and gold prices have increased about 4% in the past month. Previously, strong economic data released by the US increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve could cautiously cut interest rates in the coming months. Meanwhile, PCE data showed PCE inflation at 2.1% year-on-year, the lowest since early 2021 and slightly above the central bank's 2% target inflation rate. Before the taper, gold prices had risen by more than a third this year due to central bank buying and safe-haven demand due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Uncertainty about the US presidential election has also highlighted the value of gold as a safe-haven asset. In 2024, gold's gains are driven by economic uncertainty, central bank buying and geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East. Gold prices are now entering a historic year as expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and central bank demand will further support gold prices. Therefore, do not worry about price drops because in terms of fundamental long-term trends, gold is still strongly supported. During this trading day, traders need to pay attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and October Unemployment Rate data. Surveys predict 108,000 new jobs will be added, compared with 254,000 last month. The Nonfarm payrolls measure the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding agriculture. Job creation is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity. Figures that are much higher than expected or equal to the previous period will be considered a positive signal for the USD and continue to add pressure to the gold downtrend. Meanwhile, data at or below is expected to support gold's return to the bullish cycle and the continuation of its long-term uptrend, ending the ongoing bearish correction. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, yesterday's correction caused gold to swing below the short-term rising price channel noted by the price channel on the chart. However, gold is also approaching a notable support level sent to readers in yesterday's edition at $2,725 when gold has the conditions for a correction. Although the price dropped significantly, the mid- and long-term trend is still bullish with specific conditions such as stable price activity in the price channel, stable activity above the EMA21 level. During the day, if gold can hold above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will have the potential to increase further with a short-term target of about 2,768USD, the price point is the confluence of the lower edge of the channel © and the 0.382% Fibonacci level. The expectation for the intraday trend is a recovery with a target level of around 2,768 USD, along with which notable price points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,745 – 2,725USD Resistance: 2,768USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2765 - 2763⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2769 →Take Profit 1 2758 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2753 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2714 - 2716⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2710 →Take Profit 1 2721 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2726
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is close to the current level of 2,758 USDOn Tuesday (October 29) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price just touched 2,757.74 USD/ounce, setting a new intraday high and approaching the previous historical high. Traders prepare to release key economic data that will help set the tone for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. Although tensions in the Middle East appear to have cooled, the Uncertainty about the US election still supports gold prices. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at its two-day meeting starting November 6. Jobs and inflation data, as well as if the results of the US presidential election are contested, This could influence the Fed's decision. The market still expects policymakers to cut interest rates by 25bps at their November meeting. Lower borrowing costs are typically positive for gold, which does not yield a yield. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to be about 98.4%. When the presidential election between Harris and Trump was still too close, gold had 3 consecutive weeks of increases despite the increase in US Treasury bond yields and the USD, which often puts pressure on precious metals, losing correlation. This describes both gold and USD as having separate supports. According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, China's gold consumption decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 as high prices suppressed jewelry demand. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has had 3 consecutive days of increase and is heading for the 4th day of price increase after adjusting and taking support from the short-term price channel and the 1% Fibonacci level. Currently, gold is close to the all-time peak set previously, once gold breaks the $2,758 level which is also the target increase since gold corrected down from this level, it will have enough room to continue. upside with the next target around 2,768USD in the short term, more than the 2,786USD price points of the Fibonacci 0.382% and 0.50%. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up with no signs of weakness as it approaches the overbought area, suggesting that bullish momentum remains solid, and as long as gold remains within the channel it will continue to trend. short-term upward trend. However, in case it is sold below 2,700 USD, it will open up expectations for a medium-term correction down cycle with the target at the area of ​​the EMA21 moving average. In the current market context, this scenario is quite unlikely. During the day, the bullish technical outlook for gold prices will be brought into focus again by the following notable levels. Support: 2,745 – 2,741 – 2,725USD Resistance: 2,758 – 2,768 – 2,786USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2774 - 2772⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2778 →Take Profit 1 2767 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2762 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2730 - 2732⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2726 →Take Profit 1 2737 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2742
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
Conditions for a correction cycle, pay attention to US PCEAt the time of writing on Thursday (October 31), spot gold was at 2,783 USD/ounce, after reaching a previous record high of 2,790 USD/ounce. Gold prices rose nearly $13 on Wednesday as uncertainty over the US presidential election fueled safe-haven demand. Today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator and is expected to trigger a big fluctuations in the market. It is expected that the US PCE price index in September is expected to increase by 0.2% over the previous month and 2.1% over the same period last year. Surveys also show that the core PCE price index in the US in September is expected to increase 0.3% over the previous month and 2.6% over the same period last year. Also on the same day, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of October 26 will be released, expected to be 230,000, compared to 227,000 the previous week. Following the release of the PCE data, investors will need to focus on the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The focus this week is on jobs data and if strong non-farm payrolls data will support the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in December. However, in case NFP data is lower than expected Expected results will be positive for gold prices. Details about this data will be sent to readers in tomorrow's publication. Today we will focus on US PCE data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold corrected slightly from the area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci extension you noticed in yesterday's edition and the temporary correction was not significant. Maintaining below the 0.50% Fibonacci level gives gold the ability to decrease a bit more with a short-term target of around 2,768 - 2,770 USD where the price point of the 0.38% Fibonacci confluences with the upper edge of the price channel. In terms of the main trend, gold still has a main trend of increasing prices, but in terms of market structure, gold has also had a long period of price increase where the market will not be able to move in a straight line. Therefore, traders need to be ready for downward corrections, and must also note that during the past 2 years, corrections of hundreds of prices or more have occurred quite frequently. This makes us (traders) have to adapt to the current market environment, the appropriate measures are still volume control and appropriate opening positions and strict protection levels. Currently, if gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it would open up a short-term correction with a near-term target around $2,745 as the RSI attempts to turn Go below Level too buy. RSI below is overbought so it is considered a negative signal for gold price. During the day, the main outlook remains bullish but there are expectations for the above downside correction and notable comments are listed below. Support: 2,770 – 2,768 – 2,757 – 2,745USD Resistance: 2,786 – 2,790USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2803 - 2801⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2807 →Take Profit 1 2796 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2791 BUY XAUUSD SCALPING PRICE 2756 - 2758⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2752 →Take Profit 1 2763 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2768 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2749 - 2751⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2756 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2761
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
MYM1! Bullish Price Action for 10/31 This week’s overall trend for CBOT_MINI:MYM1! appears bearish, but during the NY session, we’re seeing strong bullish moves, often exceeding 200+ ticks. Given this pattern and the respected supply zone, I anticipate similar price action tomorrow (10/31). I plan to enter at the 8:30 CST open, aiming for a 250-tick gain, and then sell as price reaches the supply area for a target of 280 ticks. This is my first posted idea, so let’s hope it plays out as expected. Let’s collect those ticks!
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Long
by GeneralJWS
5
2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here. dax futures comment: Daily chart now looks really bad. Next support is around 19000-19100. If bears fail to generate follow through tomorrow, we could retest the bull trend line even up to 19600 again but as of now I heavily favor the bears to go deep red into the weekend. current market cycle: trading range more likely than start of a bear trend but we only know once we reach 19000 and see if it’s support or not key levels: 19000 - 19800 bull case: Bulls gave up today after the market failed to print a better close yesterday. Since they have been trying to go above 19800 for so long now, I do think many will wait for a deeper pull back to at least 19000 before buying again. They could try to retest the bull trend line up to 19600 but as of now, it’s a stretch. Got not much for the bulls here. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears now have the best setup in a long time. Clear trend line break and market has tested the highs more than enough. Bears next target is 19000 where we could expect bigger support. 19000 is the previous October low and an exact measured move from the current range down. I will watch futures open in an hour and will likely get on some swing shorts. Invalidation is above 19620. short term: Bearish for 19000 if we stay below 19620. My bullish targets are met with this lower high and trend line break. Expecting a deeper pull back before a year end rally. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Globex marked the high of the day and market just sold off. 19300 was expected to be bigger support and market showed a decent reaction where one should have covered shorts.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-10-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many bull trend lines are gone for good. Bears closed at the lows and they desperately need follow through tomorrow. If nq won’t keep the markets afloat tomorrow and drops below 20400, we will likely see a big sell off with 20200 or lower. Dax looks done, clear break of the trend line, swing shorts are juicy here. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bull trend line is now also broken and once market prints below 5800, this is over until year end rally might try 6000 again. Same logic as dax but market is not as bearish after today. Bears need follow through below 5820 and then 5800, if they get it, buckle up. Bulls obviously want to reverse up like the past 2 weeks and trade above 5900 again. current market cycle: triangle probably broken - entering bigger trading range key levels: 5800 - 5870 bull case: Bulls need to stay above 5830 or we test 5820, followed by 5800. Today’s close does not look good. Before the close I heavily favored the bulls to reverse this again but then we saw couple of sell spikes which erased the previous lows. Market turns neutral again above 5865. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears need follow through. No surprise. 5800 is the target for tomorrow, once they get it, market is free to fall down to 5730-5740. Interesting day ahead of us. Invalidation is above 5920. short term: Leaning bearish if we stay below 5865. Best chance for bears in a long time. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 5880 and buying 5850 has been profitable for many days now. So it was today.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
Microsoft (MSFT): Can Earnings Sustain the Trend Channel?With Microsoft set to report earnings, investors are keenly watching updates on AI-related spending, especially growth within Azure and Copilot, as well as broader financials. A significant focus will be on capital expenditures (Capex) for generative AI initiatives, expected to rise from $9.92 billion a year ago to an estimated $14.74 billion in this recent quarter. Beyond revenue and earnings, the market is waiting to see how these hefty investments are shaping the company’s growth trajectory. Technically, NASDAQ:MSFT continues to test the lower bound of its trend channel—a level that may weaken with repeated retests. The stock’s reaction to earnings will reveal if this support can hold. The formation suggests a potential head and shoulders pattern, particularly if NASDAQ:MSFT dips below the neckline support at $388 with declining volume. For now, we’re maintaining our cautious outlook. If Microsoft fails to hold its key support levels, it may confirm the bearish trend we’ve been observing. As always, we’ll provide updates if any significant developments occur after the earnings report.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by freeguy_by_wmc
GOLD new era levels, pay attention to today's GDP dataOn Asian markets on Wednesday (October 30), OANDA:XAUUSD delivery maintained its uptrend during the day and the gold price has now reached $2,780/ounce once again refreshing its all-time high and heading towards the target technical point noted by readers in yesterday's publication . OANDA:XAUUSD Continuing its upward momentum from the previous session, spot gold rose more than $32 on Tuesday due to uncertainty over the US presidential election and conflict in the Middle East, as well as expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve, has enhanced the investment appeal of gold. During this trading day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. This is the most important economic data of the day and is expected to cause big fluctuations. on the financial market in general and gold in particular. Current market expectations suggest that the initial value of US real GDP in the third quarter is expected to grow at a quarterly rate of 3%. If GDP data is higher than market expectations, this could cause gold to correct short-term declines or react lower after a long streak of gains and support the USD. On the other hand, GDP data was much lower than expected, which should be supportive for gold and could see it continue to find new all-time highs. Ahead of the Fed's next policy meeting on November 6-7, traders will need to closely monitor more US economic data later this week including inflation and employment data. could provide direction for the Fed's 2025 outlook. Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Because gold does not generate interest, it tends to perform better in low interest rate environments and is considered a hedge against market volatility and risk. According to Bloomberg, the latest news coming from the situation in the Middle East, Israel launched an attack on a residential building in the northern Gaza town of Beit Lahiya on Tuesday, killing at least 93 Palestinians or more. missing. The US called it a "terrible incident". Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the latest report by Britain's Reuters on Wednesday said that the Gaza Ministry of Health announced that Israel had launched an attack on a residential building in the northern town of Beit Lahiya Gaza on Tuesday, leaving at least 93 Palestinians dead or missing, and 10 injured. Medical staff said at least 20 children were among the dead. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The technical chart continues to show that gold has the ability to increase in price comprehensively with the price channel currently trending in the short term. Gold has also had 4 consecutive days of gains after correcting from $2,758, it is heading for the 5th day with an active position that brings a lot of upside prospects. Currently, gold has broken above the price channel while maintaining price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci extension, which provides it with room to continue further gains with a subsequent target of around $2,786 Fibonacci price points. extended 0.50% attention to readers in yesterday's edition. As long as gold remains in the price channel, it will still have a short-term bullish outlook, along with that, once gold breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci level it can continue to increase further towards the original price level of 2,800 USD, Fibonacci point 0.618% at 2,804USD. The relative strength index (RSI) has just broken above the overbought area, but has not yet peaked nor shown any signs of weakening, so in terms of momentum, prices can still be bullish with expectations of a correction around the area. The price point area was 2,800 USD when RSI peaked. During the day, the bullish outlook for gold will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,774 – 2,768USD Resistance: 2,786 – 2,800 – 2,804USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2801 - 2799⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2805 →Take Profit 1 2794 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2789 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2740 - 2742⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2736 →Take Profit 1 2747 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2752
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2024-10-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Mixed and still undecided. Not one broke out of their patterns today and I expected the breakout last Friday. Dax faked to the upside to sell off to the bull trend line again while nasdaq printed a strong bullish outside bar and is now near the top of the bull wedge. All patterns are still valid and the only constant is that bears are not able to generate follow through selling, so naturally market tries the opposite. dax futures comment : Daily chart says it all. Bulls not strong enough to close a day at the highs but bears even weaker and not able to print lower lows. 19600 is the middle of the range and mean reversion pays. I still lean more bullish than bearish for another run at the ath. current market cycle: late bull trend key levels: 19400 - 20000 bull case: Bulls broke above the minor bull channel but it was a trap and market sold off to near the bull trend line. As long as this line holds and market makes higher lows, I favor the bulls to retest the ath or go higher for 20000. The current trading range is fairly tight, so there is no deeper meaning to what the market is doing. No side has an advantage and we are waiting for the next impulse. Play the range until it clearly stops working. Invalidation is below 19490. bear case: Bears had a decent sell off today but market closed only 40 points lower. Bears need to start printing lower lows but most bears use the lows to cover and scalp out of positions. Invalidation is above 19750. short term: Bullish below 19600 for at least 19700. Stop is 19490 medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. Right now there is no selling pressure. I am confident that we will hit 17000 in 2025 but timing is more important than price, so let’s not waste brain capital on being bearish for now. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying before EU open was good if you were awake. The selling after the open surprised me big time and I absolutely did not expect bears to be able to get all the way down to below 19600. Good for you if you took it. Best trade was obviously selling 19700 and just holding. Was tough to take if you were long before, because the breakout look good enough.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-10-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - 2800 is close, nothing is stopping this. BTFD. I expect bigger profit taking around 2800. gold comment: I gave the 2800 target a long long time ago and we are close. Only question is, where do you enter new longs? We have a decent channel upwards where the lower trend line is around 2760. Market also respected the 1h 20ema today. We have a big bull trend line from July right above us and that should be resistance until clearly broken. I can’t see this breaking above it, so I would rather buy on pullbacks and I do think there is a very good chance we will see a bigger correction once we reach 2800. current market cycle: late bull trend key levels: 2750 - 2800 bull case: Bulls want 2800, that’s it. Any pullbacks should stay inside the current channel and not go below 2760. The rally has become climactic and we can expect a pullback/correction soon. Invalidation is below 2760. bear case: Bears see the pattern which lead to around 2800 and it’s a big obvious number. Not many want to short this until market has reached it and they see more bulls taking profits. That is why we are currently in a big hurry to get to the target and bears are not fighting it. On the monthly chart this rally is beyond climactic already and I seriously don’t know if Gold ever printed bigger gains in 4 months or even 4 straight big green months at all. This price action is unsustainable and we will see a bigger correction over the next months. Invalidation is above 2810. short term: Bullish and you should not look for shorts until we have touched 2800 and bears build much greater selling pressure. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the breakout around US open above 2770, which was a textbook breakout and good for 160 ticks. Also legit was buying the 1h 20ema, which could have been more profitable but with more risk since your stop had to be wider.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
DreamAnalysis | Identifying Key Triggers For ADA✨ Welcome to Today's Analysis! Today, I’ll be analyzing ADA/USDT and identifying key triggers for trading opportunities in both spot and futures markets. 📅 Daily Timeframe Analysis In the daily timeframe, ADA/USDT has been in a prolonged downtrend since reaching a high near the resistance level at $0.6660. After about 200 days of decline, the price has now reached the significant support level of $0.3150. This level has proven to be a crucial area of support, experiencing numerous interactions with candlesticks over time, which has slightly weakened its strength. 🔽 If ADA/USDT breaks below this level, it may drop further to the next support level around $0.2770. This area serves as the last stronghold, and a breakdown here could trigger sharper declines. Conversely, a rebound from the support level could lead to bullish triggers at $0.4041 and $0.4649, though these setups carry higher risk. I will use volume and RSI confirmations for entry to mitigate this risk. 🔼 Currently, the volume appears to be consolidating, indicating limited momentum in the market. A confirmed volume spike alongside a support break would suggest a strong bearish move, while a volume increase on a rebound would signal a potential bullish reversal. The primary bullish trigger would be a breakout above $0.4041 for spot trades, with potential targets at $0.4900 and $0.5700. ⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe Analysis Moving to the 4-hour chart, we can see that the $0.3150 support aligns closely with $0.3286 in this timeframe. The price has recently bounced off this level and is currently attempting a pullback. If the pullback establishes a lower high, it will validate the breakdown and we can target $0.2770 next. 📉 In the event of a fake-out (where the price breaks support and then re-enters the range), a recovery above $0.3500 would indicate that buyers are stepping in to push the price higher. In this case, we could anticipate a move toward the upper range, with a long position triggered upon a break of $0.3669. A higher high, confirmed by an RSI move above 50, would strengthen the long setup. 📈 If momentum picks up, we can also aim for the key resistance at $0.4123, offering a solid opportunity for an extended long position. ❌Disclaimer This is not financial advice; it is merely my personal opinion on how the coin might move. Always conduct your own research before making any decisions.
by DreamAnalysis
BITCOIN TODAY - STILL THE KING OF THE CEREMONY (TA+TRADE PLAN)Price Levels and Resistance Zones: The chart shows several key resistance and support levels marked by blue horizontal lines. Major Resistance Levels: $73,654.77 $71,552.73 $69,730.95 Support Levels: $65,947.27 $60,061.54 $52,774.45 Bitcoin is currently trending upward, with price action near $70,734.95, approaching the resistance zone at $71,552.73. VMC Cipher B Divergences: The VMC Cipher B indicator shows bullish momentum with green dots, signaling possible upward continuation. The RSI and Stochastic lines are also above mid-levels, suggesting continued bullish momentum. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI (14, close) is at 77.25, indicating overbought conditions. This could mean a possible retracement or consolidation in the short term. However, a strong uptrend may continue if Bitcoin maintains support levels above 70. Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic (14, 1, 3) is also at a high level, around 86.19, indicating overbought conditions. This aligns with the RSI and could signal a need for caution on long positions until the oscillator moves back to a neutral or oversold region. HMA+ Histogram: The histogram indicates some bullish divergence, but recent bars are turning red, signaling a potential pullback or pause in momentum. Monitoring this for further bearish signs is essential, especially if it crosses below zero. Trading Plan Short-Term Strategy: Entry: Consider entering a long position on a pullback to support around $69,730.95 if bullish signals persist. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss below the $65,947.27 support level to limit potential downside risk. Take-Profit: Target $71,552.73 as the primary take-profit level. If momentum remains strong and BTC breaks above $71,552.73, consider holding for $73,654.77. Medium-Term Strategy: Entry: Buy on confirmation of a breakout above $71,552.73 with strong volume. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss slightly below the breakout level at $69,730.95. Take-Profit: Set a take-profit target around $73,654.77. If Bitcoin breaches this, reassess the position for potential gains towards higher levels. Risk Management: Position Sizing: Risk no more than 1-2% of the trading account on each trade. Trailing Stop: Implement a trailing stop if Bitcoin strongly surpasses $71,552.73, to lock in gains while allowing for additional upside. Monitoring Indicators: Keep an eye on RSI and Stochastic Oscillator for any signs of bearish divergence or weakening momentum. Monitor VMC Cipher B for any shift in green dots to red, which could indicate potential retracement. Overall Market Sentiment: Given the current uptrend and approach to resistance, Bitcoin shows bullish sentiment. However, indicators suggest overbought conditions, so caution is advised.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by elfabiiani
1
2024-10-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Gigantic bear gap with Globex open and market closed 370 ticks down or a bit more than 5%. 1h 20ema is resistance until clearly broken. Bulls are in a world of hurt here. 66.5 is the next lower target before we go for 65. Bulls need anything above 68 again. comment: Market has now went from doing 18% upwards, going down 14% and leaving two bear gaps open. The October low is at 65.74, which will likely be hit over the next 1-2 days and if it does not hold, we will test 64 again. Bulls need to break above the 1h 20ema and then 69. I don’t think they can get much higher than that tomorrow or I’d be surprised big time. Huge difference between bulls and bears on the daily chart, is that bear bars have big tails below and market is still going down hard. Bull bars close on their highs but bulls are getting slaughtered. Could be bulls who bought the 1st of October spike, scaling in and they probably have their stops either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. Either case, it will be interesting to see the market reaction if we drop below those prices. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 63 - 78 bull case: Couple of ways to try to draw the bear trend line with the lows of the past 3 weeks but all are ugly. Bulls who buy this are probably scaling into positions and their stops are either around 65 or below the September low 63.46. If they can keep the market above 65 and quickly trade back above 69, there is a chance the lows can hold and that we have printed a higher low but those odds are bad after a -5% day. Best they can probably get is sideways movement between 66 and 69. Invalidation is below 65.74. bear case: Bears only got the market 80 ticks lower than the Globex spike, which is confirmation of this sell off. Their lower targets are the October low 65.74 and then the September low 63.46. We have an ugly bear channel with almost all bear bars having big tails below them, which shows buying pressure but bears are still selling this down hard. Which is a bit unusual I think. After such a strong bear day, follow through is expected and until bulls have clearly broken above 68 again, that price was decent to short today. For tomorrow I want to see if we have formed a tighter channel than the big one visible on the daily chart and if market is respecting an ema (currently the 1h held). I would not short below 67 but rather on pullbacks. Invalidation is above 69. short term: Max bearish. Can’t remember when I have last seen a 200+ tick futures gap that stayed open. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling around the EU open was ok once we broke below 68.3.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
GOLD and Silver Futures OUTLOOK for the week of Oct. 28, 2024Coming into this week we can see both Gold and Silver are trading away from bullish imbalances, also forming SMT's off those imbalances. We also see that both commodities have CISD's coming off the same lows. In my opinion Gold is showing relative strength, given the fact that it has a failure swing at the lows, while the contrary for Silver. My focus will be towards gold being the stronger pair to long in this scenario. Looking forward to a productive week. Bless.
COMEX_MINI:SILZ2024Long
by chaarate
2
JASMY AT A PERFECT ENTRY POINT FOR A LONG POSITION! TRADE PLANTechnical Analysis by Blaž Fabjan Pattern Identification: The chart displays a falling wedge pattern , a bullish reversal pattern often signifying a potential trend change from bearish to bullish. The price action is currently testing the upper boundary of the wedge pattern, indicating that a breakout could be imminent if there’s sufficient buying momentum. Support and Resistance: Support Line: The lower green line in the falling wedge acts as support. This line has been consistently respected, indicating strong buying interest at those levels. Resistance Line: The upper green line marks the resistance level within the pattern. A breakout above this line would be considered a strong bullish signal. Volume Analysis: There’s a noticeable decrease in volume within the wedge, which aligns with typical falling wedge characteristics. Look for a volume increase on a breakout to confirm the move. Indicators: VMC Cipher: Divergences and buy signals have been detected, showing signs of potential momentum shifts. RSI: At around 41.07, the RSI is approaching the neutral zone (50), suggesting the potential for further upside if it breaks above 50. Stochastic: Currently around 60.48, indicating upward momentum and possibly further bullish action if it continues moving up. HMA+ Histogram: Showing minor bullish signals that could align with a breakout confirmation. Entry Signal: The wedge breakout zone is highlighted as an “Amazing Entry Point.” The suggested entry is around the resistance line in the pattern, currently close to $0.01743. Trading Plan Entry: Enter a long position once JASMY/USDT breaks and closes above the falling wedge resistance line with increased volume. This would be near or slightly above the $0.0175 level, depending on price action confirmation. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly below the wedge’s recent support level or just below the most recent swing low at around $0.016 to mitigate risk. Take Profit Levels: First Take Profit (TP1): Set around the recent swing high near $0.019. Second Take Profit (TP2): For a more extended target, aim around $0.0205, where the price previously found resistance. Final Take Profit (TP3): Around $0.022, aligning with previous higher resistance levels. Risk Management: Calculate position size to risk no more than 1-2% of your trading account per trade. Monitor volume closely, as a breakout with low volume may indicate a false breakout, in which case exiting the trade early could be advisable. Alternative Scenario: If the price fails to break the resistance and moves back within the wedge, refrain from entering. In this case, wait for a possible retest of the support level around $0.016 as a secondary entry point. Summary Pattern: Falling Wedge (Bullish). Buy Zone: Above $0.0175, confirmed with volume. Stop Loss: Below $0.016. Take Profit Targets: $0.019 (TP1), $0.0205 (TP2), $0.022 (TP3). btw: VERY GOOD ENTRY POINT AT THE MOMENT!
Long
by elfabiiani
1
BITCOIN is the KING and upward movement is highly expected!Technical analysis and trade plan by Blaž Fabjan Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance Levels: 72,198.87 USDT 68,556.87 USDT 64,591.15 USDT Support Levels: 66,333.98 USDT 61,758.48 USDT 60,301.68 USDT 56,902.49 USDT The key levels indicate potential areas where price action could face resistance or find support, which might serve as entry or exit points. Indicators: Wave Cipher Divergences: Wave Cipher shows divergences suggesting a possible upward momentum. Positive divergences with green dots could imply bullish continuation. Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI currently reads 55.19, indicating a neutral zone, leaning slightly bullish if it moves towards 60. This suggests Bitcoin isn't overbought or oversold and could continue a gradual trend. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic shows a value around 70.52, close to the overbought region (above 80). If it breaks further upward, it may signal an overbought state, potentially leading to a correction. Hull Moving Average (HMA): HMA appears to trend slightly downwards, showing a bearish trend in the short term. The value of -6.58 indicates a bearish momentum, which may warn of a potential short-term pullback before any significant uptrend resumes. Price Action: The chart shows a potential breakout attempt around the 66,333.98 USDT level, where price action previously tested and retraced. A consolidation near this level could suggest that bulls are preparing for an upward push, especially if price breaks above 68,556.87 USDT. Volume Analysis: Volume shows a steady, moderate increase, supporting the upward trend. This moderate volume increase without large spikes could imply gradual accumulation rather than distribution. Trading Plan Long Position (Bullish Scenario) Entry: Consider entering a long position if the price breaks and holds above the 68,556.87 USDT resistance level with volume confirmation. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss slightly below the 66,333.98 USDT support level to mitigate risk in case of a false breakout. Targets: Target 1: 72,198.87 USDT — aligns with a strong resistance level and provides a conservative target. Target 2: 75,553.67 USDT — the next significant resistance level, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Short Position (Bearish Scenario) Entry: Consider shorting if the price fails to hold above 66,333.98 USDT and shows bearish confirmation, such as a breakdown with high volume. Stop Loss: Set a stop loss above 68,556.87 USDT to avoid risks from potential false breakdowns. Targets: Target 1: 61,758.48 USDT — a nearby support level that provides a logical take-profit point. Target 2: 60,301.68 USDT — serves as a secondary target if the bearish trend strengthens. Risk Management: Given the proximity to resistance and support levels, using a risk/reward ratio of 1:2 or higher is advisable to maintain favorable trade setups. Monitor Divergences: Keep an eye on divergences in the Wave Cipher, RSI, and Stochastic Oscillator for potential trend reversals or continuations. News and Market Sentiment: Be mindful of broader market sentiment and news events, as these can influence Bitcoin's price behavior, particularly near key levels. This trading plan provides a structured approach to capitalize on potential breakouts or breakdowns, balancing both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Long
by elfabiiani
1
USDJPY needs to pay attention to the BOJ meeting on ThursdayThe Bank of Japan will make a decision on interest rates this Thursday and the market currently expects the bank to leave interest rates unchanged. At about 10:00 Hanoi time on October 31 (Thursday), the Bank of Japan will hold an interest rate decision. As fears of a recession in the US ease, the Bank of Japan may signal that its policy outlook will be less dovish. Recent data shows that Japan's core inflation remains under upward pressure, but the Bank of Japan will likely continue its "wait-and-see" approach at this week's meeting. The market will closely monitor the quarterly outlook report, as well as changes in the Bank of Japan's assessment of risks to the US economy and the recent depreciation of the yen. Technically, after being limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, OANDA:USDJPY has dropped to get more support from the upper edge of the price channel. Along with that, maintaining price activity above the 0.618% Fibonacci level will be a positive signal for the uptrend in the near future. Currently, USD/JPY is likely to test the 154.525 level in the short term, more so than the 155.222 level with an upward trend from the near-term price channel. However, the room for USD/JPY's price increase is no longer too wide as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching the overbought level, signaling corrections to occur. But as long as USD/JPY remains in the price channel, it still has an uptrend in the short term, and as long as it stays in the price channel and maintains price activity above EMA21, it still has an uptrend in the medium to long term. The current price drops should be considered a short-term correction without changing the main trend. In the immediate future, the uptrend of USD/JPY will be noticed by the following technical points. Support: 153.365 – 151.866 Resistance: 154.525 – 155.22 2
by Xayah_trading
WTI creates a price gap, room for price declineTVC:USOIL dropped sharply in the Asian trading session today, October 28, at press time WTI crude oil maintained a decrease of 3dollars on the day, equivalent to 4.18% and is currently trading at 68.6USD/barrel. The current risk aversion in the geopolitical situation has subsided. Israel's weekend retaliatory strike against Iran bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear infrastructure without disrupting energy supplies, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and further weakening pressure on the supply side, at the same time causing disadvantages for rising oil prices. With the US election approaching and demand expected to show no signs of recovery, some fundamental pressures have returned, causing the energy market to fall into a negative state again. Technically, on the daily chart of TVC:USOIL It created a GAP jump right at the opening of trading earlier this week and recovered slightly from the upper edge of the price channel. Although WTI crude oil recovered, it still has not reached the closest support level with the target of around 67.14 - 66.44USD, so WTI crude oil still has the ability to fall further before "filling the GAP". Usually, price gaps are filled, but this is sometimes not immediate, it can happen over the next one or more months, the important thing in trading is that it depends on the trend. WTI crude oil has been under pressure from the EMA21 moving average. Note to readers in the previous issue of WTI crude oil, along with that, the Relative Strength Index broke down from the 50 level, showing that The downside potential is very wide and the slope of the RSI also shows a huge downward momentum. Technically, WTI crude oil has enough pressure to decrease in price with main resistance at EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Along with the downtrend, notable technical levels of WTI crude oil will be listed as follows. Support: 67.14 – 66.44USD Resistance: 68.59 – 69.73 – 70.56USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading