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GOLD hits upside targets, temporarily capped by $2,672OANDA:XAUUSD continues to get stronger, reaching the short-term target level at 2,660USD and aiming for the next target levels at 2,672 - 2,685USD. Boosted by falling US Treasury yields, investors cautiously await more data that could provide a fresh assessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see about a 95.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November. Market attention will be focused on US retail sales data, industrial production data and weekly jobless claims data due out later this week. Gold prices have risen more than 29% year-to-date, with optimism about interest rate cuts fueling recent gains. Gold prices are also supported by strong purchasing power from central banks and safe-haven demand amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The latest news from Israel, two Israeli officials said on October 15 local time that although Israel's attack on Iran is not expected to target nuclear facilities and oil facilities, it could including missile and drone launchers, Iranian warehouses and factories, military bases, government buildings and other targets. Iran on October 1 launched a large number of ballistic missiles into Israel, attacking Israeli military and security targets in response to a series of previous Israeli attacks and assassinations. In security consultations involving Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Galante and other ministers, a comprehensive agreement was reached on the course of action against Iran, timing and intensity a response is possible, but the details still require final Cabinet approval before the action can be taken. Gold itself does not generate interest, but it has the potential to increase in price during times of geopolitical and economic instability. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered and increased to achieve most short-term targets from 2,660 USD to close to the 2,672 USD area. Temporarily, technically, the gold price is still limited by the level of 2,672 USD. However, maintaining above 2,660 USD will be a positive condition in the short term for the possibility of a technical price increase in the near future. Once gold breaks $2,672 it will be on track to continue rising more with a target then around $2,685 or so making new all-time highs. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up from 50 and is still far from the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price growth in terms of momentum. As long as gold remains within the channel and above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook, and notable intraday levels are listed below. Support: 2,660 – 2,643USD Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2690 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2674 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2642 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2638 →Take Profit 1 2649 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2654
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Harmony one is going up! Technical analysis + trade plan by BFChart Overview Timeframe: 4-hour (Binance Exchange) Price as of Analysis: $0.01346 Volume: 3.744 million ONE Formation: Falling Wedge pattern Chart Patterns and Indicators: Falling Wedge: A falling wedge pattern is typically a bullish reversal pattern, indicating that the current downward trend is weakening and a potential breakout to the upside could follow. The narrowing of price action shows a decline in both support and resistance levels, with lower highs and lower lows. The breakout is anticipated above the wedge resistance, potentially marking the beginning of an uptrend. The VMC Cipher B indicator is similar to the MACD and shows signs of bullish divergence, meaning that while the price has been declining, momentum is building for a potential reversal. The RSI is hovering around 50.25, which is neutral but can indicate momentum is shifting. If RSI starts increasing above 55, it will confirm bullish momentum. Stochastic Oscillator is currently at 35.30, this shows the asset is near the oversold zone but still in neutral territory. A move above 40 may confirm a bullish trend reversal. The HMA histogram shows early signs of turning bullish as the color changes and bars are in the process of shifting positive. Volume has decreased over the wedge formation, which is typical of such patterns. An increase in volume after the breakout will serve as confirmation for a stronger upward move. Potential Price Targets: Immediate Resistance: $0.01360 - This is the wedge resistance. A breakout above this level confirms the pattern. First Target: $0.01550 - Based on previous price levels, this area is the next resistance once the breakout occurs. Second Target: $0.01750 - This aligns with the previous significant high and could be a target after the first resistance. Risk Factors: Stop-Loss: It’s crucial to place a stop-loss below $0.01200 (below the previous support levels) to manage risk in case of a false breakout. Volume Confirmation: Ensure that the breakout occurs with significant volume, as low-volume breakouts may lead to a reversal back into the wedge. Trading Plan 1. Entry: Enter a long position after a confirmed breakout above the $0.01360 resistance with strong volume confirmation. A 4-hour candle close above this level should confirm the breakout. 2. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss slightly below $0.01200 to manage the downside risk in case the falling wedge pattern fails and the price reverses. 3. Profit Targets: First Target: Set a take-profit around $0.01550 to capture the first major move after the breakout. Second Target: For those with a higher risk appetite, target $0.01750, which aligns with the next resistance. 4. Position Size: Risk only 1-2% of your trading capital on this trade. Given the potential volatility and the falling wedge pattern, it's essential to manage position size conservatively. 5. Monitoring: Keep an eye on the volume and the RSI/Stochastic Oscillator. If RSI rises above 55 and Stochastic confirms the upward movement, the breakout should gain more strength. Monitor for any potential fake breakouts. If the price fails to close above the resistance on the 4-hour chart, consider delaying the entry until clear confirmation is given. The Harmony (ONE/USDT) chart is showing a potentially bullish falling wedge formation, indicating that a reversal from the recent downtrend could occur soon. A breakout above $0.01360 with confirmed volume is crucial for confirming the uptrend. If confirmed, Harmony could target $0.01550 and $0.01750 in the near term, but it's important to employ tight risk management through proper stop-loss placement.
Long
by elfabiiani
1
2024-10-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax futures comment: A daily bear bar closing on it’s low. What a time to be alive. Kinda in the middle of the channel now, which is a bad bad place to trade. Both sides have valid arguments. I would rather sit on hands and only scalp on momentum than initiate trades around 19600. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls can be happy a decent dip came which they can now buy. Will they buy 19600 or will they wait? I am not sure but would you really want to buy 19600 now in hopes of a climactic continuation above 19800? Hard to make that a good trade. I do think the rally was fueled by momentum, that is gone now. Invalidation is below 19500. bear case: Bears finally got a decent day and they want/need follow through tomorrow. Obvious targets to hit next are 19350ish (breakout price) and the potentially much bigger support at the daily 20ema and the bull trend line around 19300-19350. If we get there, I highly doubt bears will push their luck and we see another strong move up. On the 1h tf, the first target for tomorrow is the open of the week 19536 and that is also where a smaller bull trend line is. Can be bigger support and bears could also give up there. Hard to make a bigger bear case for now but it’s worse for the bulls to blindly buy this just because we dipped some. Invalidation is above 19800. short term: Bullish but a bit more neutral right now, until we know where the next support is and bulls come around again medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19500 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19491 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally. Update 2024-10-13: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 19750 was not the hard part about the short trade but holding through bar 38 - 52 was. Had to get short bar 32 or latest 33. Can you hold afterwards? Tough. Open price was an obvious magnet when we hit 19650, so do you want to hold through a 60 point up move when you are short? I did not. Could have gone short below bar 57 but then you see the spike and hope for more and when you hold, market reverses bad again and you are underwater or break even at best. Then you do what? The 15m 20ema was decent to short then but all in all tough because market wanted lower but also produced many big tails below the bars that touched 19600.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
Technical Analysis for Numerico (NWC/USDT) + TRADE PLANTechnical Analysis for Numerico (NWC/USDT) The price is showing a breakout potential at the top of the channel, which may signal a trend reversal. Descending Channel Pattern: Resistance: The upper trendline shows where the price has faced rejection multiple times. The resistance level is gradually declining. Support: The lower trendline indicates strong support, where buyers have consistently entered the market, preventing further decline. Breakout Potential: The price appears to have tested the upper trendline of the channel. The arrow pointing upward suggests the possibility of a breakout above the descending resistance, which would indicate a bullish reversal. Indicators: Volume: A spike in volume supports the possibility of the breakout. A breakout with increased volume is generally a stronger confirmation of the trend change. VMC Cipher B: This momentum oscillator shows a shift from negative to positive momentum, implying that the buying pressure is gaining strength. RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index is around 58.66, indicating that momentum is neutral to slightly bullish. RSI above 50 usually signals increasing buying pressure. Stochastic RSI: The stochastic RSI is currently in the overbought zone (91.21), which might signal some short-term correction, but the overall momentum remains strong. HMA+ Hist: HMA (Hull Moving Average) shows that the histogram is close to zero but shifting upward, which could imply a possible change in trend direction soon. Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate Support: $0.0719 (marked by the horizontal blue line). Resistance Zone: Around $0.0753 (upper edge of the channel). Great Entry Point: The label indicates that a long entry is ideal around the breakout zone, with an upward arrow suggesting that this level ($0.0721) could offer a solid risk-reward ratio for buyers entering before a potential upward movement. Trading Plan Entry Point: Enter the trade at the breakout above $0.0721 (highlighted as the "Great Entry Point"). If the price closes above this level on the 4-hour timeframe with significant volume, it will confirm a bullish breakout. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss slightly below the recent support of $0.0719, at approximately $0.0690, to minimize risk in case the breakout turns into a false breakout. Profit Targets: First Target: $0.0800 – This level aligns with a previous resistance zone and would be a conservative target for short-term traders. Second Target: $0.0850 – If momentum remains strong, the price may continue toward this higher level of resistance, providing a larger reward. Risk Management: Ensure a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 2:1. For example, if the stop-loss is set at $0.0690 (risk of approximately 3%), aim for the first target at $0.0800 (a reward of approximately 10%). Use position sizing techniques to risk only 1-2% of the portfolio per trade, to ensure long-term sustainability and avoid major losses in case of unexpected market moves. Monitoring & Adjustments: Watch for volume confirmation during the breakout. If the volume diminishes, consider closing the position early, as it may signal a weakening breakout. Adjust the stop-loss to breakeven once the price hits the first profit target, ensuring a risk-free trade for the remaining portion of the position. Conclusion: The technical analysis for NWC/USDT suggests a bullish breakout from the descending channel pattern, with indicators supporting a potential upward move. Entering at the breakout level of $0.0721 with proper risk management offers a promising opportunity, especially with a positive shift in momentum.
Long
by elfabiiani
1
Goatseus Maximus is meme NO.1 for this bull run! TA+TRADE PLAN🚀🚀🚀 MEMECOIN No.1 FOR THIS BULLRUN 🚀🚀🚀 Goatseus Maximus is primed to be the KING OF MEME COINS this season! With a powerful symmetrical triangle pattern, an incoming breakout, and massive hype potential, GOATSEUS MAXIMUS is set to dominate the market. This coin isn’t just riding the meme wave—it’s about to surf it to HUGE GAINS! 🌊💎 Get ready for the next big thing in crypto. With strong technicals, an upcoming bullish breakout, and a dedicated community, GOATSEUS MAXIMUS is about to hit the moon! Don’t miss the ride of a lifetime! 🌕✨ Goatseus Maximus is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern during an overall uptrend, a continuation pattern that often precedes a breakout in the direction of the prevailing trend. In this case, given the prior upward momentum, the odds are in favor of a bullish breakout. Key Technical Insights: Symmetrical Triangle: The price has been consolidating within the triangle, making higher lows and lower highs. This signals market indecision, but as the triangle narrows, an imminent breakout is expected. Volume Spike: The volume shows a notable increase (175.9K), a positive signal that a strong move may follow soon, potentially confirming the breakout direction. Indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 54.21, the RSI suggests the coin is in a neutral zone, with more room for an upside move before hitting overbought territory. Stochastic Oscillator: Sitting at 57.79, it shows momentum is gradually turning positive, which aligns with a potential breakout to the upside. Support and Resistance Zones: Support: The orange zone between $0.08 - $0.10 acts as a solid support area where buyers could step in. Resistance: The current resistance levels are projected near $0.16 and $0.20. A breakout from the triangle could push the price toward these levels. Trading Plan: Entry Strategy: Enter long on a confirmed breakout above the upper trendline of the triangle (above $0.14 - $0.15). Ensure that volume supports the breakout to avoid a false move. Consider setting a pending buy order slightly above the triangle resistance line at $0.1505 to catch the breakout early. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just below the lower trendline of the triangle (around $0.105) to protect against invalidation of the pattern. Alternatively, if the price breaks below the support zone near $0.08, consider exiting, as this would signal bearish momentum. Profit Targets: First Target: $0.18, aligning with the next significant resistance zone. Second Target: $0.24, based on the measured move from the base of the triangle, offering a strong risk-to-reward ratio. Risk Management: Ensure that the position size adheres to a 2-3% risk of your total portfolio. Monitor volume and price action closely for any signs of reversal after a breakout.
Long
by elfabiiani
1
Bitcoin is going up, short consolidation phase TA+TRADE PLANBitcoin's price action against USDT on a 1-hour timeframe with several technical indicators and key levels. Here is my technical analysis + trade plan by Blaž Fabjan Ascending & Descending Trading Channels: The price is moving between ascending and descending channels. This can indicate phases of higher highs and higher lows (ascending) followed by lower highs and lower lows (descending), which often signals periods of short-term consolidation or corrections. Resistance Levels: Multiple resistances are clearly marked on the chart around the price of $68,556.87 and $67,000. The price has struggled to break above these levels multiple times, making it a critical zone to watch for future price action. Support Levels: Support is visible around $61,758.48 and $60,301.68, representing strong areas where the price previously rebounded. These levels are essential for managing downside risk. Consolidation Phase: The price appears to be consolidating after rejecting the upper resistance line. This phase suggests market indecision or preparation for a breakout. VMC Cipher_B Divergences: Divergences in this indicator show potential weakening of the bullish trend, which could signal a pullback. The green and red dots suggest possible points of reversal, important for catching trend changes. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is at 52.96, indicating the market is neutral but slightly leaning toward the bullish side. If RSI breaks above 70, this could signal overbought conditions, while a drop below 30 would indicate oversold. Stochastic Oscillator: Currently in the oversold region (18.22), indicating a possible upward reversal soon. This could hint at a short-term bullish move. HMA (Hull Moving Average) Histogram: The HMA is showing a mixed trend, but the upward slope hints at mild bullish momentum that needs confirmation from price action or volume spikes. Trading Plan Entry Points: Long Position: Look for a breakout above $67,000 or $68,556.87, especially with strong volume confirming the upward move. You could set a buy stop order slightly above these levels to capture the momentum. Short Position: If the price rejects resistance and breaks below $64,500 (the recent low), this could indicate a further decline toward support levels around $61,758.48 or lower. Stop-Loss: For long trades, place stop-losses just below $64,500 to minimize risk in case of a fake breakout or false bullish signal. For short trades, place stop-losses above $67,000, as a break above this could invalidate the bearish trend. Profit Targets: Upside Targets: First target is around $70,000 (a psychological round number and historical resistance), followed by $71,000. Downside Targets: The initial target for a short would be $61,758.48. A break below could see prices test $60,301.68, the lower boundary of this channel. Risk-Reward Ratio: Ensure that any trade maintains a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2. For instance, if you risk $1,000, you should aim for a reward of $2,000. Additional Confirmation: Wait for additional signals, such as volume spikes or confirmation from indicators like RSI or Stochastic, before entering a position. The market could continue to consolidate before choosing a direction. Time Horizon: Given that this is an hourly chart, these trades are more suited for short-term to medium-term traders. Ensure to adjust your stops and targets as the market evolves, and check for any upcoming fundamental events (like economic news or regulatory updates) that could impact Bitcoin's price. By following this plan, you can manage your trades effectively, balancing risk and reward while being prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Long
by elfabiiani
2
2024-10-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - In my weekly post yesterday I wrote “max bullish” a couple of times and I hope you did not short this today. Bulls are in absolute control and they have no reason to stop buying every small dip. You can not be a bear on the hope that this madness will stop eventually. It can go much further than you can imagine. Strong day, strong close, can only expect higher prices until bears print consecutive big bear bars on higher time frames. My best guess is still a blow-off top this week, which can mark the top before we see a bigger correction. Today felt like we are already in it. dax futures comment: Bulls got follow through and confirmed Friday’s bullishness. There is nothing bearish about this so don’t waste time looking for bear arguments. You never want to be the first in trading unless you are a big institution who needs to scale into positions because you literally move the market otherwise. 19700 is almost a given but buying high is not the way to go here. Wait for decent pullbacks. Today the 30m 20ema was perfect to buy on 3 occasions. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls are close enough to 20000 and bears absent to enough to expect that we get there. We have formed a proper channel where the lower trend line is around 19600. If that holds, it’s max bullish again but we could also reach the bigger trend line around 19500 before going higher again. Since bulls literally bought every dip since Wednesday, expect for them to continue to do so. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Best they can hope for is sideways movement and maybe get down to the 1h 20ema. Anything below 19500 would surprise me. Their target is to test the 1h 20ema and the lower bull channel line around 19600ish. If they somehow break that, their next target would be the price area around 19550. Invalidation is above 18720. short term: Max bullish until bears come around. Look for longs. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06: 3 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19500 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Not so sure about 19491 being the high, since liquidity could see a bigger increase and upside could be higher. We will likely have another 10%+ correction this year and a possible year end rally. Update 2024-10-13: Possibility of a blow-off top to 20000 is there. If we get there, it will be the short opportunity of the decade. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Close of last week held during Globex, EU opened could not even get down there, that was the last big hint bulls mean business and you should get long. Only real tricky thing today was to either hold through bar 32 - 34 or get long again on bar 49 or 54.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-10-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - In my weekly post yesterday I wrote “max bullish” a couple of times and I hope you did not short this today. Bulls are in absolute control and they have no reason to stop buying every small dip. You can not be a bear on the hope that this madness will stop eventually. It can go much further than you can imagine. Strong day, strong close, can only expect higher prices until bears print consecutive big bear bars on higher time frames. My best guess is still a blow-off top this week, which can mark the top before we see a bigger correction. Today felt like we are already in it. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Break above both bull wedges. Could this be a bull trap? I highly doubt that. 6000 will very likely be hit this year. current market cycle: max bullish key levels: 5860 - 6000 bull case: Bulls are in full control and we can only expect higher prices, given the strength of this follow through buying. We have a small channel which will likely break overnight and the next bull trend line is around 5890 already and aligns nicely with the 1h 20ema. Next obvious target is 6000. Invalidation is below 5880. bear case: Nothing really. Can they prevent 6000? Doubt it. Can they get a deeper pullback before we get there? Also doubt that. Anything below 5880 would surprise me. If they get it, 5850 is their next target and bigger support. Invalidation is above 6050. short term: Bullish af. Don’t look for shorts. Buy on pullbacks when bulls come around again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade : None trade of the day: Globex oscillated around last week’s close and after bar 10 it could not even touch the 15m 20ema again. Could have bought anywhere and made money except 15m before US close.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: Vega-Neutral Gold Play1. Introduction Gold is currently in an uptrend, presenting a potentially favorable environment for bullish traders. However, with implied volatility (IV) sitting around its mean, there’s uncertainty about whether IV will rise or fall in the near future. In such a scenario, traders may want to neutralize their vega exposure to avoid being negatively affected by changes in volatility. This article focuses on setting up a Call Ratio Spread, a bullish option strategy that provides positive delta while allowing for further adjustments that could keep vega neutral. This allows traders to capitalize on Gold’s potential uptrend while minimizing risk from changes in implied volatility. 2. Current Market Context The Gold futures market shows strong levels of support, which reinforces the bullish outlook. On the continuous Gold futures chart above GC1!, we observe key support levels at 2646.2 and 2627.2-2572.5. These levels could act as price floors, helping the uptrend continue if tested. Similarly, when examining the contract-specific below chart for GCQ2025, we identify supports at 2725.4 and 2729.5-2705.5. These levels provide solid ground for bullish trades on this specific contract, giving traders additional confidence in entering long positions. With implied volatility near its average (see the chart below), the market’s future volatility direction is unclear. Traders using options may choose adapt to this environment, ensuring that changes in volatility do not work against them. 3. Options Strategy: Call Ratio Spread To take advantage of Gold’s uptrend while neutralizing the risk from changes in volatility, we could employ a Call Ratio Spread. This strategy offers a bullish stance while maintaining vega neutrality, protecting the trader from swings in implied volatility. Setup: Buy 1x 2600 Call at 256.15 Sell 2x 3500 Calls at 23.32 Expiration: July 28, 2025 This configuration generates positive delta, meaning the strategy will benefit from upward price movement. At the same time, by selling two calls at a higher strike, we offset the vega exposure, ensuring that changes in volatility won’t dramatically affect the position. The strike prices and expiration selected help create a risk profile that works well in a bullish market. The maximum gain potential occurs if Gold continues to rise but stays below the higher 3500 strike, while the vega neutrality minimizes any volatility risks as the trade begins. Notice the breakeven point for this strategy is 2809.5, meaning the trade becomes profitable if Gold exceeds this level by expiration. 4. Why Use Micros? Traders looking for a more flexible approach can consider using Micro Gold Futures (symbol: MGC) instead of standard Gold futures contracts. Micro Gold Futures offer smaller contract sizes, which translate into lower margin requirements and a more precise way to control risk. This makes them an attractive alternative for traders with smaller accounts or those looking to scale into positions gradually. Additionally, Micro Gold Futures allow traders to fine-tune their exposure to Gold without the larger capital commitment required by standard contracts. For those implementing strategies like the Call Ratio Spread, Micros provide a cost-effective way to execute similar trades with a lower financial commitment. Contract Specs and Margin Requirements Gold Futures (symbol: GC) represent 100 troy ounces of gold, and their margin requirements can vary depending on market volatility and the broker. Typically, the initial margin requirement for a standard Gold futures contract is around $10,000 to $12,000, but this can fluctuate. For traders seeking more flexibility, Micro Gold Futures (symbol: MGC) offer a smaller contract size, representing 10 troy ounces of gold. The margin requirement for Micro Gold Futures is significantly lower, usually in the range of $1,000 to $1,200, making it a more accessible option for those with smaller accounts or those looking to fine-tune their exposure. 5. Risk Management As with any options trade, managing risk is essential. In the case of a Call Ratio Spread, the primary risk comes from the naked short calls at the 3500 strike price. If Gold rallies aggressively beyond 3500, the trader faces unlimited risk due to the uncovered nature of the short positions. To mitigate this risk, traders should consider using stop-loss orders or adjusting the trade if Gold's price approaches the 3500 level too quickly. Another way to eliminate the unlimited risk component to the upside would be to convert the Call Ratio Spread into a Call Butterfly by buying an additional call above the 3500 strike price, effectively capping the risk. This adjustment still allows for positive delta exposure while limiting potential losses if Gold moves sharply higher. Additionally, monitoring implied volatility is key. While the position starts with neutral vega exposure, this will change as the underlying asset price moves and time passes, especially as expiration approaches. The vega exposure can increase or decrease depending on these factors. If maintaining the vega-neutral characteristic is a priority, further adjustments—such as rolling options or modifying strike prices—could be made to keep the position aligned with the trader’s volatility outlook. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
USDJPY has bullish technical conditionsThe latest economic data suggests the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again next month, but a larger cut is being underestimated. Therefore, US bond yields remain stable and the wide spread between Japanese government bond yields and US bond yields continues to support the US Dollar. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY The uptrend is noticed by the price channel and the nearest support level at 148.113 of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Temporarily, USD/JPY's upside momentum is limited by the upper channel edge, once USD/JPY breaks above the channel it will continue to trend upward towards the 150.739 levels in the short term, more than 151,866. Even if the 0.382% Fibonacci level is not enough to support USD/JPY in the short term, it still has other support slightly lower at 147.113 – 146.424. As long as USD/JPY remains above EMA21 and within price channel, it still has a bullish technical outlook with notable technical points listed below. Support: 148.113 – 147.112 – 146.424 Resistance: 149,364 – 150,739 – 151,866
Long
by Xayah_trading
WTI affects the Middle East and storms in the USOil prices were volatile but posted a second straight weekly gain last week as investors weighed potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and the impact of Hurricane Milton on fuel demand in Florida. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased to 75.56 USD/barrel. Although US President Joe Biden has advised against attacking energy facilities in OPEC's third largest producer, the possibility of prolonging the conflict in the Middle East and there are increasing signs of this spreading will make the market nervous. Unrest in the Middle East has increased price volatility and prompted hedge funds to increase their net long positions. At the same time, a statement from the US Treasury Department said that in response to Iran launching ballistic missiles towards Israel on October 1, the US is expanding sanctions on the oil and chemical industry. Iranian oil. Hurricane Milton swept through Florida and into the Atlantic last Thursday, killing at least 10 people and leaving millions without power, putting pressure on prices. Nearly a quarter of Florida's 7,912 gas stations were without fuel as of last Wednesday morning, as drivers stocked up on gas earlier this past week ahead of the storm. Florida is the third largest gasoline consuming state in the US, but the state has no refineries and therefore must rely on imports. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL slight correction after recovery and limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Up to now, WTI crude oil still has technical price increasing conditions with the main trend from the price channel, main support from EMA21. The confluence of the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level is the closest current support for WTI crude oil on the daily chart. If WTI crude oil breaks above the 0.50% Fibonacci level, it will have conditions to continue rising with the target level then being around 79.03USD. As long as WTI crude oil remains above the EMA21, it remains technically bullish in the short term, and the highlights are listed below. Support: 73.77 – 72.39USD Resistance: 76.40 – 76.84USD
TVC:USOILLong
by Xayah_trading
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bulls bought the daily 20ema and now we had gigantic up and gigantic down, means gigantic confusion. I favor another sideways to down movement for the second leg of the two-legged correction before bulls can try 77 or higher again. 75-76 is a bad spot to trade imo. Downside target is 74 or 73 and everything below would be bad for bulls. Quote from last week: comment: Wild, wild market currently. New low below 66.9, just to reverse for 13.95% or 925 ticks. You won’t see that move too often per year. So now what? Tough. Friday’s bar has a big tail above and we broke above the bear trend line, which could very well be a bull trap. A look at the monthly and weekly chart never hurts. They are both showing the same continuation pattern of a contracting market, since we did not break the lows below 63. Next bigger high which will most likely hold is the July one at 80.71. As of now bulls turned the market neutral again, where the middle of the potential range could be 72 if we use the July high and the September low. comment : Bullish doji on the weekly with big tails above and below. 71.5 is a good low and likely to hold. I do expect another try by the bears though. Only question now is will we see 77+ before 74? I don’t know. So watch for momentum and hope along. I still favor the bulls for at least a retest of 77/78 but I do think we can hit 80 again. Given the strength of the move up, it is reasonable to expect a bigger second leg to 80 or higher. current market cycle : trading range (triangle on the weekly tf) key levels : 71 - 80 bull case: I continue to be bullish until bears can reject 77 or 78 again. Bulls now have formed a proper channel up and we are likely in W2 in a potential W5 series. Don’t trade based on that wave series because right now it’s a very rough guess. Invalidation is below 71.3. bear case: Bears had an amazing pullback last week and had to take profits on those 690 points. I don’t think we will see bigger bears coming around to fight for 75-76 they likely wait for 77/78 again. Otherwise I don’t have any arguments for the bears here. Invalidation is above 79. outlook last week: s hort term: Neutral. I would not short 74.38 right now but favoring the bears for a pullback but only on weakness. Will only turn more bullish above 76 or around 72/73 (if bulls buy it). Pullback could go as deep as 70. → Last Sunday we traded 74.38 and now we are at 75.56. Neutral was good. Big up, big down, big confusion. Likely to trade more in the middle of that range, which we are doing. short term: Neutral but expecting a retest of 77 and higher again. The closer to 74 you can long this, the better is what I think. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-06 : That bear trend is over and we are again in the big trading range 64 - 78/79. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed bearish two legged correction and added a potential 5-wave series.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Also max bullish. Bulls closed 8 points below the ath. Strong buy signal going into next week but the issue (again) is that you are buying above the bigger bull wedge and at the very high of a nested one. Waiting for a pullback to go long is the much more reasonable trade instead of buying near 5860. The wedge has room to 5900, so 6000 is a valid year end target. Bear case begins below 5750. 5800-5850 is neutral. Quote from last week: comment: Much bigger range than the previous week with wild moves the whole week. Bears sold it with spikes, followed by bulls who bought every dip. End result was 5800 again and now what? We are near the ath and can easily make a new one. The high was also high enough to count as a decent lower high and we sell off from here. Given the strong bull bar on Friday, we have to give the higher odds to the bulls to get follow through above and we will probably make a new ath. comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5750 - 5900 bull case: Bulls want 5900 and have all the arguments on their side. That still does not make buying 5859 a good buy. It’s possible that bulls break above both wedges and continue for 5900 and much higher, is it likely though? I doubt it. What, no more text? We have two perfectly fitting patterns and are trading at the very highs. I have given precise invalidation prices. Don’t think more words will make this better. Just as more trades probably won’t make you more money. Quality over quantity. Invalidation is below 5750. bear case: Bears have nothing until they close below 5750. We are at the highs but so what? 5 Consecutive weekly bull bars say it all. Don’t look for shorts when bears do not make money other than scalping on time frames below 15m. When these two wedges break below, we will see a decent correction again and it’s possible over the next weeks but as of right now, bears are in pain and nothing else. Invalidation is above 5910. outlook last week: short term: Neutral 5750 - 5850, big range but we are in the middle of that given range and both sides have reasonable arguments. If bulls get follow through above 5800, long scalps are a decent trade for 5830 or a bit higher. Right now I would not trade it. → Last Sunday we traded 5800 and now we are at 5859. Neutral range but I wrote above 5800 a long is good for 30 points or more. Good outlook. short term : Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update : None
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.13 - 10.18Last Week : Interesting week we had as many different things happened and it was fun to watch. Last week Globex opened and made a return back into distribution balance, RTH flushed the inventory back into VAL but we again were able to hold VAL into the close and Tuesday Globex rotated back inside balance which brought buying and gave us another failed attempt out of balance top but market was able to hold over the 80s and supply which brought in more buying and triggered a short covering stop run into next Value which held and gave some continuation to close the week. This Week : Friday market attempted a push for VAH into 5840 - 80s Intraday range. We were able to hold around the mean of the of the range into the close but we can see it ended with a Poor high and Weakness into into 50s. IF we are to accept in this new range then we would see price holding over 840s, over Value if that will be the case then we could continue trading in this range over VAL and start building up for an attempt at VAH test. BUT we have to be careful as mentioned last week and week before that previous distribution range was a very interesting area and with current PA we might not be fully done with it, of course we will have to see what the market will actually do. Which means if we don't accept inside/over Value then this push could find its way back under 40s into VAL, IF we will be holding under 30s with Supply above that could trigger more weakness to get us back towards the Edge and eventually if we will have the supply find a way back into Previous Balance. Something to note this week is Volume has been low, we don't have any market moving news until Thursday so need to be careful for more a slow leak back in instead of a quick return if it is to happen, holding over 830s would or 860s would change the weakness.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 14 - Oct 18]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD have continuously decreased in the early sessions of the week to nearly 2,602 USD/oz because market expectations about the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED) began to change. . Last week's strong jobs report, combined with a higher-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), forced the market to temper expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Fed next month. However, economic experts note that the slowing US economy will continue to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, albeit at a slightly slower pace. This combined with US consumer sentiment falling to 68.9 points, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict remaining complicated, pushed gold prices back up to 2,661 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,657. USD/oz. Although the FED may reduce the pace of interest rate cuts in the near future, investors should not forget that US monetary policy is only one factor affecting gold prices. Notably, many central banks have officially announced they will continue to buy gold reserves. As central bank demand continues to dominate the gold market, new questions are being raised about where all that money is going and what impact it has on the dollar. Certainly, reducing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries will cause the USD to gradually depreciate. In addition, BRICS member countries are promoting local currency swaps and using electronic currencies in international trade, also creating significant downward pressure on the USD. In addition, the record high level of US public debt is weakening the purchasing power of the USD. The USD has been under a lot of downward pressure, so of course it will positively support gold prices in the medium and long term. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, there are continuous periods of sideways accumulation, then continuously creating new high prices afterward. And this time is no exception if the price breaks the peak of 2,685 USD/oz. Currently, the support level is established around the circular resistance level of 2600, while the resistance level is around the 2685 mark. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2625 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to increase beyond the 2700 threshold. In case the support mark of 2600 is penetrated, the gold price will temporarily decrease and adjust below the level of 2555. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.555 – 2.600 – 2.625USD Resistance: 2.700 – 2.685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2554 - 2556⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2550
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
NG1: Will We See a Rebound or a Breakout?🔍 Analyzing NG1: We are approaching a critical support level that could determine our next move. Option 1: A rebound from this level could present a strong buying opportunity, indicating a potential uptrend. Option 2: If we break below this support, the next level could act as a key pivot point, prompting a reevaluation of our strategy. I’m closely monitoring for long entry opportunities to capitalize on any bullish reversals. Let's stay sharp!
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by WaveRiders2
GOLD rose for two consecutive sessions after inflation dataOANDA:XAUUSD rose on Friday (October 11), after US inflation data reinforced the prospect of lower interest rates this year, keeping the dollar below recent peaks, amid haven demand. Safety stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also boosted gold. At the end of the trading session on October 11, the spot gold contract increased 1% to 2,656.09 USD/oz, increasing for the second consecutive session. Gold futures contracts added 1.3% to 2,674.40 USD/oz. The PPI producer price index in the US was unchanged in September, showing that the inflation outlook remains favorable and supporting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates next month. The PPI data looks friendly to precious metals bulls and shows that the Fed is still on track to lower interest rates this year. This data comes after CPI data in the US rose slightly higher than forecast last month, however, the annual inflation increase was at the lowest level in more than 3 and a half years. The dollar steadied below a 2-month peak on Friday. On the physical front, gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in two months this week as the upcoming festive season attracted some buying of copper jewellery. Gold holdings of ETFs increased to nearly 95 tons in the third quarter. This means ETFs are contributing positively to gold demand again for the first time in 10 quarters.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers strongly from support area, eye US PPIOn Friday (October 11) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price has just exceeded 2,645 USD/ounce, increasing more than 15 USD during the day. While US CPI data was slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. This caused the US Dollar index to decrease significantly. In addition, tensions in the Middle East also attracted a wave of safe-haven gold buying. On Thursday, although US CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. Data on Thursday showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) in September rose 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations for a 2.3% increase. Core CPI increased by 3.3% over the same period last year, exceeding expectations and the 3.2% increase in August. Additionally, US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, a similar increase to the previous month and above the consensus estimate of 0.1%. The US core CPI growth rate in September was stable at 0.3% over the previous month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. The data also showed the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims last week rose to the highest level in more than a year, reflecting a weakening labor market partly due to a rise in jobless claims. strong in Michigan and the effects of Hurricane Helene. OANDA:XAUUSD supported by broad-based risk aversion and a softer USD ahead of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data released later on Friday. On Thursday evening local time, the Israeli security cabinet held a meeting to decide how to respond to Iran's large-scale missile attack on Israel on the 1st of this month. Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of Israel's security cabinet, said the security cabinet would "make the right decision" to prevent another Iranian attack. Gamliel told Israeli public broadcaster Kan that revenge was imminent and could happen at any time. US and Israeli officials told Axios that US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved closer to the scope of Israel's planned retaliation against Iran during their phone call on Wednesday, media reported. American news agency Axios reported on Thursday (local time). The Biden administration admits that Israel will soon launch a major attack on Iran. Pay attention to PPI data US annual PPI growth in September is expected to slow to 1.6% while year-on-year core PPI growth in September is expected to increase to 2.7%, compared to previous growth of 2.4% in August. PPI data is almost as influential as CPI data and is also expected to create strong fluctuations in the market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered significantly from the key support area that readers noticed in the publications before gold adjusted down to the 2,608 – 2,600 USD area. The recovery gains achieved the initial target at $2,634 and broke this level, which would qualify gold to continue towards the next target at $2,660 in the short term. There are no changes in the technical structure that support the upside, with the Relative Strength Index also folding upward from 50, which is seen as the closest support in terms of momentum. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,634 – 2,630 – 2,626USD Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2685USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2663 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2667 →Take Profit 1 2656 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2655 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2618 →Take Profit 1 2628 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2633
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Confirmed Bullish Reversal WTI Crude Oil looks bullish from both daily/intraday perspectives. On a daily time frame, I see a confirmed breakout of a resistance line of a wide horizontal parallel channel and a trend violation and reversal. On a 4H time frame, I see a retest of a recently broken resistance of the channel with a consequent strong bullish movement and change of character CHoCH. I believe that the market will continue growing. Next resistance - 77.0 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILLong
by VasilyTrader
1
GOLD is affected by the Middle EastAs recent jobs data prompted investors to lower expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, and as tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing, gold prices fell. strong but it seems this is just a profit-taking move and not a downtrend with solid conditions. Following last week's positive jobs report, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool, the market currently predicts an 86.8% chance of a 25% rate cut. basic point. Markets will focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting to be released on Thursday, followed by US consumer price index data on Thursday and producer price index data on Thursday. out on Friday. US inflation data due out on Thursday is expected to show price pressures continuing to ease, but there is little further push for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further in the meantime. next time. Therefore, the current gold price trend is temporarily governed by geopolitical developments. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting. The market will have additional trading materials from the meeting minutes. The Federal Reserve almost unanimously agreed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting. In addition to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, many Federal Reserve officials will speak during this trading day, including Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson, Fed Chairman Richmond Barkin, Fed Chairman Atlanta Bostic, Fed President Dallas Logan and Chicago Fed President Gu lsby. Regarding the situation in the Middle East, Lebanese Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem said in a televised speech at an undisclosed location on Tuesday that he supported the efforts of the National Assembly Speaker. Lebanon Berri aimed to promote a ceasefire without specifying Hezbollah's proposal. It is worth noting that this is the first time that Hezbollah does not consider ending the war in Gaza a prerequisite for ending fighting in Israel and Lebanon. OANDA:XAUUSD known for its stability and as a tool to prevent geopolitical and economic risks, and when geopolitical risks show some signs of cooling down, gold also falls due to weakening shelter demand. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is correcting but there are also signs of recovery from the EMA21 level, the key support level you will pay attention to throughout these publications. With the main trend from the price channel and the EMA21 level not being broken below, gold's technical outlook still has conditions for price increases. In the short term, holding above $2,608 – $2,600 provides room for gold to recover with the nearest target at $2,634 and more to $2,660 once it breaks above initial resistance at $2,634. The relative strength index RSI points down with a moderate slope and is close to the area of ​​the 50 level, the 50 level is considered the closest support level currently, the RSI pointing up from this level will be considered a signal price increase. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, it still has enough upside and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,608 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,660USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2590 →Take Profit 1 2601 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2606
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
BITCOIN IS GOING UP! TA + TRADE PLAN BY BFTechnical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) on the Chart by Blaž Fabjan Falling Wedge Continuation Pattern The falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern, often indicating a potential upward breakout after a period of consolidation. Resistance and Support Lines: The chart shows a clear resistance line sloping downward and a support line also trending downward. The price is approaching the apex of the wedge, where a breakout is likely imminent. Indicators Analysis: VMC Cipher B (Market Cipher Indicator): The divergences on the VMC Cipher B show a series of green dots, which are often used to indicate potential long entry points. The momentum appears to be turning positive, with the indicator suggesting possible bullish divergence. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The current RSI is at 39.81, which indicates a moderately oversold condition. An RSI below 40 often suggests that the market is near the bottom, and a potential reversal to the upside is likely. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator shows 43.44 and 47.50 (K and D lines), hovering near the oversold region but not yet fully bottomed out. A crossover or upward movement from these levels would provide additional confirmation of a bullish reversal. HMA+ Histogram: The HMA (Hull Moving Average) histogram shows recent red bars, indicating negative momentum, but it appears to be narrowing, suggesting that the selling pressure is weakening. A transition from red to green bars would confirm a shift toward bullish momentum. Potential Breakout Scenario: Given the falling wedge pattern and the technical indicators approaching oversold conditions, there is a strong likelihood of a bullish breakout. The volume is not provided in the chart, but price action suggests decreasing volatility before a potential breakout. The breakout direction is likely to be upwards, targeting the $65,000 to $67,500 resistance zone initially. Trading Plan by Blaž Fabjan: Entry Strategy: Wait for Confirmation of Breakout: Enter a long position once the price breaks above the resistance of the falling wedge pattern (around $61,500-$62,000). RSI needs to cross above 45 to confirm momentum is shifting to the upside. Ensure that the VMC Cipher B shows green dots and the Stochastic Oscillator shows a bullish crossover before entering the trade. Stop-Loss Strategy: Place a stop-loss just below the support line of the wedge, which would be approximately around $59,000, to protect against a false breakout or further downside. Profit Targets: First Profit Target: $65,000 (previous swing high and a significant psychological level). Second Profit Target: $67,500 (the next key resistance level after the breakout). Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for a minimum 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio. For an entry near $62,000 with a stop loss at $59,000, the first target at $65,000 gives a decent risk-to-reward ratio, with the potential for higher gains if the price continues to climb. Trade Management: Trailing Stop: Once the price reaches the first target, move the stop-loss to breakeven (entry point) to lock in profits and manage risk. Monitor the RSI and VMC Cipher for signs of exhaustion in momentum once the price nears the second target. Alternative Scenario: If the price fails to break above the wedge and breaks below the support line, consider reversing the position or waiting for further confirmation of a bearish trend before shorting. By following my plan, traders can capitalize on the potential upward breakout from this falling wedge continuation pattern while managing their risk effectively.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by elfabiiani
1