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2024-09-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Sideways. I won’t write much about this. Markets refuse to go lower but also not much higher. Best now is to wait for the clear breakout that will likely happen this week. I have zero bias to which direction it will go. I am not a fortune teller. Both sides have reasonable arguments, despite this being one of, if not the biggest asset bubble in history. comment: Market continues to contract. Many lines on my chart but all of them are valid until broken. Will see a bigger breakout tomorrow and or Friday. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19000 - 19200 bull case: Bulls are somewhat very slightly favored since we are making higher highs and higher lows but barely. Not much changed since last Thursday. We are near the ath and market refuses to go down. Structure on the daily chart has potential for a breakout above. Wait for it to happen or scalp small. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears try but once market begins to stall they are out. Their only objective is to keep the market below the ath or near it. Not much more to say until they print something below 19000 again. Everything below 18800 would be amazing for the bears and would probably end this bull move. Invalidation is above 19250. short term: Neutral and waiting for the breakout. Bulls want above 19250 (roughly 19100 on xetra) and bears below 18800. Everything in between is a dead zone where market is in balance. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 19000 or shorting near 19100. Bear trend line from 19195 was decent to short.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
Data and the risk of widespread conflict, GOLD finds new peaksAs tensions in the Middle East and US consumer confidence worsen, increasing gold's safe-haven appeal OANDA:XAUUSD , along with falling US Treasury bond yields and a weakening US Dollar, gold prices have once again renewed their all-time record high. In terms of data The Conference Board reported Tuesday that U.S. consumers' views of the economy worsened in September as concerns about jobs and business conditions grew, with the index Consumer confidence recorded its largest drop in more than three years. The Conference Board reported that the US consumer confidence index fell sharply to 98.7 in September from 105.6 in August, the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Survey of Dow Jones had forecast the number to be 104. Iran's President warned Israel to conduct heavy air strikes Israel announced that it launched a large-scale airstrike against "Hezbollah targets in Lebanon" on September 23, hitting more than 1,600 targets. Israel continued to conduct new air strikes in many places in Lebanon on September 24. According to Britain's Reuters, on September 23 local time, Iranian President Pezhiziyan said in New York, USA that Israel hopes to draw the Middle East into the conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah that has lasted nearly a year. past, by provoking Iran into "total war" and warning that its consequences would be "irreversible". Asked whether Iran would retaliate after Hamas Politburo leader Haniyeh was killed in an attack in the Iranian capital Tehran in late July, Pezeshizyan said: "They will respond in the appropriate way." at the appropriate time and place." As fighting between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and the Israeli military escalated sharply, Hezbollah has urged Iran to launch attacks on Israel in recent days. A direct Iranian attack on Israel would significantly further destabilize the region and could draw the United States into war. The US Federal Reserve's beginning to loosen monetary policy also pushed up gold prices because gold does not generate interest and lowering interest rates can reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Major investment banks expect gold's record price increase to continue through 2025 due to large capital inflows into gold ETFs and expectations of further interest rate cuts from central banks the world's largest. The basic picture has not changed as gold is still a comprehensively supported choice, both in terms of macro data, monetary policy and geopolitical developments that are increasingly new and complex. more complicated with the risk of spreading. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is having its fifth consecutive day of price increases, the next target level will be the $2,672 mark as the $2,645 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension was quickly broken during the trading day. Yesterday. It is difficult to trade at the present time even though the main trend is still bullish with the price channel as the short-term trend. However, the Relative Strength Index has peaked in the overbought area, suggesting that there may not be much room left for the price to rise. In principle, the market will not move in a straight line, so during this time there is a basis to expect a short-term correction without changing the trend. The correction will likely be limited by support points from the 0.786% Fibonacci in the short term, and more so the 0.618% level. However, it must be reiterated that all technical and fundamental conditions are pointing in the same direction of price increase, and the uptrend with the expectation of short-term adjustment and of gold prices will be noticed by high levels. following technique. Support: 2,645 – 2,624USD Resistance: 2,672USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2694 →Take Profit 1 2684 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2679 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2607 - 2609⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2603 →Take Profit 1 2614 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2619
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2024-09-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Bull channel from my weekly update was not steep enough. 2700 next. Only look for longs. Can’t stop, won’t stop. comment: Gold broke above my drawn patterns, again. Unreal strength but not unexpected. In my weekly I wrote you should only look for longs. How high can this get? 2700 is almost a given at this point and big round numbers are always decent for a pullback or some stalling. Any long would need a stop 2645 as of now. Can wait for pullbacks to long this. last 10 days has 1 bear bar. Don’t try to be smarter than the market and short it. Although it’s becoming climactic and a pullback is expected, it can go further, so don’t pick tops. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 2645 - 2700 bull case: Bulls in full control. New low would be below 2645 and that’s far away. I look for pullbacks near ema to long it. Invalidation is below 2540. bear case: Bears want a pullback but will probably have to wait for 2700 now. Best they currently get is to stall the market and make it go sideways. I expect this around 2700 next. There is absolutely no reason to look for shorts on this. Invalidation is above 2710. short term: Max bullishness. medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 2650. There were 4 chances where market clearly showed support around that price. Don’t long the first touch of such levels but above the second is good.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
GOLD is still looking for new peaks, PCE is the focus this weekAt the end of the last trading week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased above 2,620 USD/oz, continuing the existing upward momentum due to expectations that the US will continue to cut interest rates and increasing tensions in the Middle East. On Wednesday (September 18) local time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut after concluding a two-day policy meeting in Washington. , lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.75%-5%. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since March 2020. Fed officials expect interest rates to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% in 2025. In a statement, policymakers said they would consider “adjustments “addition” to interest rates based on “upcoming economic data.” They also noted that inflation "remains high" and that job growth has slowed. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in his post-FOMC press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a new pace of rate cuts.” Next week, several Fed officials will speak and it is expected that these statements will have a short-term market impact. • Next Monday, Bostic, the FOMC 2024 voting committee and Atlanta Fed President, will speak on the economic outlook. • Next Tuesday, FOMC 2026 voting committee member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will give a speech. • Next Thursday, Boston Fed President Collins will host a virtual meeting on central bank supervision and financial inclusion, and Fed Governor Coogler will attend. • Next Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will broadcast a video to open an event. • Next Thursday, the FOMC permanent voting committee and New York Fed President Williams will speak. Federal Reserve Governor Barr will speak next Thursday. • Next Friday, FOMC 2026 voting committee and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will have a conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Barr Next Friday, FOMC 2025 voting committee, Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Coogler spoke. Next week's data focus will be on August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Next Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for August, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. If the core PCE price index rises 0.3% month-on-month or above expectations, that could boost the dollar and put pressure on gold. On the other hand, weak data could put immediate pressure on the USD and support gold prices to rise further. Economic data to watch next week Monday: S&P Flash PMI Tuesday: US consumer confidence Wednesday: New home sales in the United States Thursday: Durable goods orders, third quarter GDP, weekly unemployment claims; US pending home sales Friday: US PCE Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to find new all-time highs with conditions tilting towards the upside. From the long-term price channel and the EMA21 line, they point towards an increase in price. Using Fibonacci extension to follow the trend, gold temporarily closes weekly below 0.618% and this is also the confluence point with the upper edge of the price channel. Once this level is broken, gold will tend to increase further towards the 2,645 USD area, the price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The relative strength index RSI is pointing up with a large slope without showing signs of weakening from the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price growth ahead although not much. However, in the current trading environment, strong corrections can still occur quickly with the levels of 2,610 - 2,600 - 2,595USD being the closest current supports. Finally, gold's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,610 – 2,600 – 2,595USD Resistance: 2,631 – 2,645USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2588⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2582 →Take Profit 1 2593 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2598
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Geopolitical tensions escalate, GOLD is heading to a new peakOn the Asian market on Tuesday (September 24), spot gold continued its recovery trend. The current gold price is at around 2,634USD/ounce, close to the historic high reached the previous trading day. According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 48.6% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 51.4%. The market is pricing in a higher likelihood of a 50bps interest rate cut by the Fed in November, which weakens the US Dollar and supports gold prices in terms of correlation. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical risks stem from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, as well as U.S. political instability ahead of the November election and recession concerns. The economy will support the safe haven price of gold. Gold is known as a traditional safe haven whenever risks appear in the market, while currently political and economic instability appears. dense. Therefore, the basic trend of gold prices will still be upward. Israel launched airstrikes on so-called Hezbollah weapons sites in southern and eastern Lebanon on Monday, killing nearly 500 people and raising the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. The Pentagon said Monday that the United States will send more troops to the Middle East as violence increases in the region, the Associated Press reported. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is supported by the trend from the short-term price channel and is currently continuing to recover after a slight correction yesterday. Currently, gold is moving towards the initial target increase noticed by readers in the weekly publication at 2,645USD which is the confluence of the edge on the price channels and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. At 2,645USD, it is expected that there will be certain adjustments but will not affect the main short-term trend of price increase. The relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought area on the daily chart so there may not be much room left for the price to rise and is in line with expectations of a downward correction from the aforementioned confluence. Notable technical levels for the day are listed below. Support: 2,624 – 2,613 – 2,610 Resistance: 2,634 – 2,645USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2588⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2582 →Take Profit 1 2593 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2598
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
China's policies, Middle East developments support oilWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL reached over 72 USD/barrel supported by the Chinese Government's lightning-fast policy support for the economy and the situation in the Middle East is very tense. All of these geopolitical factors are driving oil prices even higher. In addition, natural conditions also threaten supply from the US, the world's largest crude oil producer, pushing oil prices up. China's massive stimulus policy Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced a series of stimulus measures at a press conference in Beijing today (Tuesday), a clear sign of the broadest effort yet by the Policymakers aim to achieve an annual growth target of around 5% this year. This is the largest stimulus measure since the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic. The measures announced today include: boosting bank lending to consumers and businesses and cutting the People's Bank of China's key short-term interest rate, which will support growth and energy demand in the world's largest oil importer. New developments in the Middle East Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon on Monday, Lebanese authorities said air strikes killed 492 people and forced tens of thousands to flee their homes. Oil prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts because this region (Lebanon) plays an important role in oil production. The attack risks bringing OPEC oil producer Iran, which backs Hezbollah, closer to a conflict with Israel and could trigger a wider war in the Middle East region, which in turn could continues to push for support for crude oil as supply is threatened. In particular, this conflict could completely involve Iran, a major member of OPEC, and could further disrupt crude oil supplies from the Middle East. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is showing the initial conditions for a bull run with the RSI steeply upward sloping past 50, along with price activity moving upwards. the 21-day moving average which acted as resistance previously. However, WTI crude oil will need to temporarily break the 72.65 USD level to fully confirm the technical conditions for a bullish cycle with a short-term target level of around 74.39 USD. In the short term, the trend of WTI crude oil is more inclined towards price increases with notable positions listed as follows. Support: 70.90 – 70.49 – 69.37USD Resistance: 72.65 – 74.39USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - 230 ticks surprise downside by the bears but bulls prevented the ugly daily bar, which leaves us with a neutral bear bar. Market closed above the daily ema and right at the bull trend line that was broken earlier. Selling was strong enough to expect a second leg but anything below 69 would surprise me. comment: Finally some decent selling again. Bears need to keep it below 71 to trap many late bulls buying too high. I have a measured move target around 67.2 but for now I doubt we get that low. Selling today was strong enough to expect a second leg. Given the fast move upwards, I would not look to buy this dip and wait until market has found a better bottom than 69.5. current market cycle: trading range inside big broad bear channel from the daily chart key levels: 69.5 - 72 bull case : Bulls bought the lows but need to get above 70.60 to stay inside the bull channel. They would also need to close the current bear gap to 70.8ish to have better arguments to trade back up. They prevented the worst by closing above the daily ema and not letting the bear bar looking too good so market is pretty neutral going into tomorrow. Above 70.7 I favor the bulls for 71 or 72 again. Invalidation is below 69.5. bear case: Bears want a second leg down to 68 or lower. If they can generate strong follow through tomorrow, many bulls could cover their longs and the selling might accelerate. For now it’s low probability and more likely is more sideways movement and some oscillating around the daily ema. Invalidation is above 70.7. short term: Neutral between 70-71, bearish below 69.5 and bullish above 70.7. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade: None trade of the day : I was in denial of the strength of the selling. 2m ema was not touched and that could have been the trade of the month. Bar 41+42 formed a double top with the bars 2-4 and bar 43 was strong enough to flip market always in short. Very bad trading on my end to not take it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Talk about pinning at a specific price. Most markets moved inside tight trading ranges between last week’s close and today’s open price. Was it bulls scaling into longs because we will rip higher (accumulation) or bears selling the highs because we crater soon (distribution)? Yes. We have learned nothing today and you can move on now. dax futures comment: Dax was the anomaly today and surprised me with the strong close. Market refused to go down while most others chopped in tight ranges. The 50% pb from Friday’s selling is 19030 and we closed at 19000. Anything above 19100 would be very bullish but I favor the bears to retest at least 18900 tomorrow. That outlook is somewhat low probability until bears can break outside of the current bull channel on the 15m tf. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18800 - 19200 bull case: Market refused to go down after the EU open reversal and we had a spike and channel bull trend day. As long as the bull channel is alive, bulls are fine. Their targets above are 19100 and then 19200 obviously. Given the atrocious pmi data earlier today, this rally feels off and is likely a squeeze. Does that help with trading? No. Can go much higher than anyone expects but right now anything above 19100 would surprise me, again. Invalidation is below 18970. bear case: Bears tried a couple of times today but were not strong enough to even retest the open price after we went above 18980 during the EU session. We are near the 50% pb and it’s possible that they come around tomorrow and try to get down to 18800 but as of now they don’t have good arguments. Their first target is to make the market go sideways and break out of the bull channel. Then they need a strong close below 19000. On the daily chart nothing changed after today. Invalidation is above 19100. short term: Neutral and bearish once the bull channel is broken for at least a retest of 18900. Bullish above 19100 for 19200 or higher. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 18850 was profitable on Friday and so today. Bar 29 was a perfect signal bar and 30 the entry bar. Stop 1 tick below the signal bar and that was good for 200+ points. I was too busy looking for shorts that I did not take many good long setups. Bad trading on my part.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024Short
by priceactiontds
BOE may still warn of inflation, GBPUSD raises new targetThe British pound (GBP) will continue to outperform after the Bank of England signaled that it will maintain its restrained approach to interest rate cuts. Bank of England Governor Bailey said the central bank needs to be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or too much. He also said that since the August meeting, inflationary pressures in the UK have continued to ease and overall economic performance is in line with expectations. The Bank of England certainly seems not to be on the Fed's side and will not send a signal to lift its inflation warning. The British pound will likely continue to perform well in the near term, based on fundamentals. On the daily chart, OANDA:GBPUSD in the main uptrend with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 level as the main support. The current position of GBP/USD above the 0.50% fibonacci extension shows that it could still continue to increase briefly in the near term with the 0.618% Fibonacci level, 1.33717 price point as the target. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit of room for price growth ahead. As long as GBP/USD remains within the price channel, the main outlook will remain bullish and in the short term notable levels for a bullish outlook are listed below. Support: 1.33009 – 1.32301 Resistance: 1.33717
Long
by Xayah_trading
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bulls got a clean breakout but they need follow through on Monday/Tuesday. The current channel fit’s nicely but we only know market is respecting it when we see a pullback. If this breakout is strong, bulls would not let the market fall below 2600 again. A weaker trend would pull back to the daily ema around 2600 before continuing. As long as we hold above the daily ema there is a very good chance we will see 2700 next. Small chance this trend is accelerating and breaking above the drawn channel and we would see 3 strong legs up which could lead to 2800. Quote from last week: comment: Finally the breakout above and the 2600 print. All bullish targets are now met for me so no interest in buying this high. I think the odds that bulls break above the wedge and start a new bull rally are very low and much more likely is a trap over the next 1-5 days and then a reversal down to at least 2540. That’s all I have to write about this right now. comment: I always think about wrong outlooks much more than about right ones. In this case, was the “no interest in buying this high“ the right call here and I would come to a yes in every scenario. Of course it was wrong and market made another 50 points but risk reward was so off, not taking it was the right move for me. Anyhow. Bulls confirmed another bullish structure and we have a bull wedge inside a very bullish channel upwards. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 2570 - 2700 bull case : Bulls had the fastest and most shallow two legged pullback there is on Tuesday/Wednesday and continued with max bullishness for 2650. By now every bear has given up and we will truly find out how high this can go over the next months. As of now my preferred pattern is the bull channel and since we are at the highs, bulls would need another strong bar like Friday to break above it. Can they get it? Absolutely. Am I betting on it? No. Invalidation is below 2570. bear case: No idea where and how strong they come around. Will most likely be more bulls taking profits rather than strong selling. Lower bull trend line is 50 points lower and I doubt we hit it on Monday. Buying 2640 is a bad trade and bears know it but I rather wait and see where we go. On the 1h tf we have not traded below it since Thursday’s Globex session. Currently very hard for bears to make money so make your life easier and look for longs. Invalidation is above 2660. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. I need to see bear strength before selling this. No interest in longs above 2600. → Last Sunday we traded 2610 and now we are at 2646. Meh outlook because bulls were much stronger and broke above again but I also advised against shorts until bears come around. They did not. short term: Neutral. I won’t be buying 2646. Need a pullback. medium-long term: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None. chart update: Added bull wedge.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
#202439 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Similar structure to dax. Nested bull wedges inside a big broad bull channel. The current bullish structure has a potential to lead to much much higher prices but I favor the trading range continuation more. The bull wedge will break over the next 2-3 days and we will likely have an answer on the next direction. Bulls need a strong break above 5800 and bears below 5670. Quote from last week: comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. comment: Bears did absolutely nothing last week except selling highs. Not a single daily bar below the previous one. Very strong buying with resulted in an obvious new ath on Thursday. Are bulls done or will we get hit 5800? Most likely we will hit it because of the obvious liquidity grab (stop running) above it. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5670 - 5850 bull case: We are trading around the ath. Will the market find more buyers to push this even higher? We are inside nested bullish patterns and bulls are favored but buying near the ath without a better pullback is not the best trade you can do right now. On lower tf you can find reasonable longs but not on the daily. I’d rather wait for a breakout of the smaller wedge and see where the market wants to go. I do think bulls can print 5800 and some next week. Most outrages target I have on sp500 is 6144 but I will only address this once bulls close a weekly bar above 5800. Invalidation is below 5670. bear case: Bears want the breakout below the wedge and test the daily ema around previous support 5670. If they are strong, they could hit 5600 next week but as of now the bears have nothing to support this but hope. Best they can probably get is some sideways around 5760. Invalidation is above 5810. outlook last week: short term: Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. → Last Sunday we traded 5629 and now we are at 5762. I leaned bearish but only if… If never came true since bears could not get a lower low all week. My read that above 5670 it’s a long, was good for 110. short term: Neutral around 5760. No interest in buying besides small long scalps on the 5m or lower tf for 5800. Market is contracting in a tight range, best not to do anything and wait for a clear breakout. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None chart update: Only bullish pattern left and added an outrages measured move target.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 23 - Sep 27]This week, after opening at 2,579 USD/oz, the international gold price dropped to 2,546 USD/oz, but then continuously increased sharply beyond the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz to 2,625 USD/oz and closed the week. at 2,622 USD/oz. International gold prices increased sharply because the FED cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points and signaled that it would further cut interest rates by about 200 basis points in the next 2 years. FED Chairman Powell said the FED will not rush to sharply loosen monetary policy and noted that the FED is currently in the process of readjusting its monetary policy. Mr. Powell's comments show that the FED will not be too hasty in cutting interest rates, but will adjust monetary policy according to a specific roadmap. This may somewhat cause confusion among investors, causing them to take profits from gold investments that have yielded large profits, causing gold prices to adjust and accumulate in the short term. However, with the FED's roadmap to cut interest rates, gold prices are expected to continue to increase sharply in the near future. 📌Technical analysis indicators, such as MACD, RSI... are showing that gold price is in the overbought zone in the short term. However, the upward momentum of gold prices is still there, with no signs of reversal. The attractive area for gold prices seems to be the round block of 3,000 USD/oz, corresponding to the Fibo level of 261.8 calculated according to the Weekly chart. From a narrower perspective, looking at the H4 chart, in the immediate future, the gold price may continue to maintain its upward momentum to conquer the next resistance level around 2,690 - 2,700 USD/oz, before decreasing and adjusting again. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.595 – 2.600 – 2.610USD Resistance: 2.645 – 2.624USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2695 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2515
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD surpassed the 2,600 USD/oz markOANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply in the trading session on Friday (September 20), with spot gold prices officially surpassing the important barrier of 2,600 USD/oz for the first time in history. The possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to cut interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East act as direct catalysts for this breakthrough in gold. At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market increased by 36.3 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 1.4%, closing at 2,622.4 USD/oz. The Fed's move to lower interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday is "fueling" gold prices. This precious metal is a non-interest bearing asset, so it benefits in a falling interest rate environment. According to data from CME's FedWatch Tool, interest rate futures traders are betting on a 100% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in both its November and December meetings. In addition, this year, global investors are also actively buying gold to hedge against lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East and some other places. The trend of net buying gold by central banks to diversify foreign exchange reserves away from the USD also contributed greatly to the increase in gold prices. Israel announced that it had killed a senior commander and important figures of Hezbollah in an airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, raising concerns about the risk of widespread war in the Middle East. However, US President Joe Biden still believes that the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement for the Gaza Strip is realistic. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased 26%, the largest increase in a year since 2010. Some analysts believe that this record increase in gold prices may soon turn into a correction state. The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six other major currencies, increased 0.12% on Friday, closing at 100.74 points. However, the index has decreased 0.37% this week and decreased nearly 4.8% in the past 3 months - according to data from MarketWatch.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continues to be strong, geopolitical tensionsOn Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, starting an easing cycle and gold prices rose accordingly. Traders are ignoring the rise in US Treasury yields, which are inversely correlated with gold, and gold is still aiming for $2,600 raw price or perhaps a new all-time high. grand. Readers can review the Federal Reserve's policy analysis in yesterday's publication linked below. Tensions in the Middle East and ceasefire negotiations are positive for gold “Gold is considered a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, and because gold is not subject to interest, it often thrives in low interest rate environments.” The Wall Street published an exclusive report on Thursday, local time, The Wall Street said senior US officials had said a ceasefire and hostage release was within reach, but now here they admitted that they did not expect Israel and Hamas to attend. "There is no chance of achieving this now," the Saudi official said shortly after the pager attack on Hezbollah. "Everyone is waiting and watching to see what happens after the election. Conclusion The results will determine what the next government can do." Failure to reach an agreement will harm the "job" of current President Biden. According to Gaza's Health Ministry, the war has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, mostly women and minors. According to the latest report by Agence France-Presse, Lebanese Minister of Public Health Firas Abyad said that communication equipment explosions occurred in many places in Lebanon on September 17 and 18 local time. , leaving 37 people dead and nearly 3,000 injured. On September 19, Hamas issued a statement thanking Hezbollah for its support in Lebanon. Hamas said that Hezbollah's resolute stance in Lebanon "has undermined Israel's efforts to sabotage the resistance movement in the Gaza Strip." Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After adjusting and recovering, gold currently has all the conditions to aim for the target increase at the original price point of 2,600 USD that was previously achieved. In the short term, $2,600 will remain the target resistance, however once gold breaks above the $2,600 base price it could continue to rise another $12 to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The uptrend will still be the main trend with the price channel and support from EMA21. As long as gold remains in the price channel, price drops should only be considered short-term corrections without damaging the main trend. . Maintaining above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension is also a positive signal for gold prices in the short term technically. During the day, the bullish outlook will be noticed by the following levels. Support: 2,582 – 2,575 – 2,561USD Resistance: 2,600 – 2,612USD In the current trading environment, large fluctuations often occur. It can be said that these fluctuations are so large that looking for so-called optimal entry positions too close will bring the risk of being "swept out". " Therefore, along with finding reasonable entry locations, optimization also needs to be emphasized in the process of controlling volume and transaction density. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2616 - 2614⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2620 →Take Profit 1 2609 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2604 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2564 - 2566⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2560 →Take Profit 1 2571 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2576
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
2024-09-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Big news first. There is no reason why markets could not continue higher. Tis what I wrote yesterday. So you have been warned I guess. Indexes - Huge gap up and go on most markets during the Globex and EU session. Right now we are mostly trading between the 15m and 1h 20ema and that’s my absolute worst spot to trade. Markets held at the highs and closed there, so bulls have all the arguments on their side, yet tomorrow is Opex and those max bullish options probably won’t be green at the end of tomorrow. So now bullish outlook from me after today. dax futures comment: Another one. Gap up today and market kept going. 19000 (xetra) is a nice round number and we could stall here or reverse. Another higher target would be 19260 (big green bull trend line on the daily chart). This would also align with the futures ATH at 19204 while futures are trading around 30 points above xetra. Long story short, don’t sell this yet. After such a strong day you simply can not hold a bearish bias. current market cycle: broad bull channel but also a big trading range on the daily chart on futures key levels: 18800 - 19200 bull case: Bulls had an amazing day. Futures ath from May is 19204 and there is no reason we can not get it. Tomorrow is opex and those days are always special. Don’t get trapped tomorrow and only take AAA setups. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears gave up during the globex session. They would need a strong 1h close below 18900 and then a gap close to 18730 to have better arguments. On the 1h tf we are currently in the C of the two legged correction and right at the 1h 20ema. It’s a buy signal if bulls reverse and we could go sideways overnight. Don’t get trapped into taking those kind of bad shorts. Some bears argue that we are at the top of the trading range on the daily/weekly chart and at the top of the current bull channel on 1h chart. Is this enough to sell this? Not after such a strong day today. You need confirmation below the 1h ema. Invalidation is above 19100. short term: Neutral but mostly looking for longs until bears trade below 18900. Bulls are in full control but that does not mean I want to buy high in hopes of going higher. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Market held strongly above 18800 with many tries to get below. Bar 32 was a give up bar by the bears and a decent buy signal. You were then buying high in a trading range but the context was good enough to expect at least 18920 but market never looked back. 19040 was also clear resistance and shorting this price was profitable many times today.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by priceactiontds
After Powell's speech, GOLD prices plummetedAfter the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery soared to 2,600.15 USD/ounce, reaching a new era record high. But after Powell's speech, gold prices plummeted, currently trading around 2,563 USD/ounce. Powell said at the press conference that the 50 basis point rate cut “is not a fixed pace of new rate cuts.” On Wednesday local time, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting in Washington, lowering its target range. target the federal funds rate down to 4.75%-5%. This is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since March 2020. Fed officials expect interest rates to fall to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% in 2025. This decision to cut interest rates was not supported by all FOMC members. The statement shows that one person voted against the 50 basis point rate cut and Fed Governor Bowman, who voted against it, supported the 25 basis point rate cut. Thus, Bowman became the first Fed governor since 2005 to vote against the decision of a majority of FOMC members at the FOMC interest rate meeting. Summary of Jerome Powell's speech Powell said: "We are recalibrating our policy stance; nothing in our (economic) forecasts suggests that we are rushing to act; Fed economic forecasts are basic forecasts; the actual actions we take will depend on how the economy develops. If appropriate, we can speed up or slow down the pace of interest rate cuts , or even choose to pause; this 50 basis point cut does not mean we are rushing to act.” “I don't see any signs right now that the likelihood of a recession has increased,” Powell said. I don't see that. You will see the economy growing at a steady pace, see inflation decreasing. You'll see the workforce, the market remain at a very stable level, so I don't see that right now." Powell's indication that if appropriate, the Fed could speed up or slow down the pace of rate cuts, or even choose to pause this 50 basis point rate cut, does not indicate the Fed is ready to act. This has damaged market sentiment that the Fed will cut interest rates more aggressively in the future, which has weakened gold prices. But it does not mean a basic trend because the basic trend will still be bullish, because the path to cutting interest rates by the Fed is still very long and data will continue to be the next catalyst. The reason to say that the path to cutting interest rates is still very long is that readers can pay attention to the details that "in the shortest term", Fed officials expect interest rates to drop to 4.4% by the end of 2024. and down to 3.4% by 2025. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold corrected significantly on yesterday's trading day after renewing its all-time high in the $2,600 area, this was also the target increase that readers noticed in the weekly publication. Technically, the adjustment from the original price level is not an unusual sign of the trend. The current trend of gold price is still bullish with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 as the main support. As long as gold remains within the price channel, the technical outlook remains bullish. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up, showing that momentum and room for price growth are still ahead. Once gold breaks above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension it will be in position to retest the all-time high once again and gold sustaining price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension is a positive signal for the trend. short-term upward trend. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price points. Support: 2,561 – 2,546 – ​​2,540USD Resistance: 2,582USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2586 - 2584⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2590 →Take Profit 1 2579 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2574 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2524 - 2526⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2520 →Take Profit 1 2531 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2536
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
gold idea hidden orders sitting a bit higher $$$ #BookMap "Your income is directly related to your philosophy, not the economy." — Jim Rohn This emphasizes the importance of mindset and attitude in achieving financial success. We have orders sitting at the the top, you probably could see them if you were using book map so I would buy and set a trailing stop loss as price rises up VWAP will help us enter and exit so no need to list entry and exit THanks and out - Trade God
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeGod003
1
2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Bull trap above the bull wedge as I wrote. Bears confirmed it with the close today. I look for shorts tomorrow and expect 2560 or lower to be hit tomorrow. Anything below 2540 would be a huge surprise and we could see an acceleration down to 2500. If bulls reverse this and trade back above 2610, bears will most likely give up until we hit 2700. comment: Another spike and new ath but huge rejection. I do think the rejection was strong enough to expect follow through and test the lower bull wedge trend line around 2550/2560. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 2550 - 2630 bull case: Bulls tried to break above the bull wedge and failed. Odds now favor a retest of the lower trend line (daily ema is also there), where I expect buyers to step in more strongly again. If bears somehow fumble this again, bulls would need a reversal of the huge 1h bar and get back above 2600. The longer bulls can stay around 2600, the better. Invalidation is below 2540. bear case: Bears want to keep the momentum strong tomorrow (after the 50+ point rejection from the new ath) and test down to 2550. If they somehow manage to break below 2540, we could see an acceleration down to 2500/2520 but I highly doubt that. Since we had a spike up and then a huge spike down, the dominant pattern is still the bull wedge and there is not much more magic to it than what I described. Bears absolutely need to keep it below 2600 to have a chance of lower prices. Invalidation is above 2605. short term: Neutral until bears get follow through below 2570 or 2600 is clear resistance now. medium-long term: 7 consecutive months where Gold barely went below previous month’s low. Strong buying on the monthly chart but also the third push up we are currently in. I highly doubt bulls get another one so if it continues, it’s without me. I am waiting for a bigger correction. current swing trade: None trade of the day: How could you predict those spikes today? You can’t. How can you trade them? Only viable could have been shorting the spike above 2620 but those are hard to take. You would need a wide stop and scale in. One time you short it correctly and make the trade of the week and next time you blow your account if you are not humble enough. Today was no obvious good trade to be honest.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Look at the daily chart and then you can’t be anything but neutral after yesterday and today. Consecutive doji bars with huge tails above and minor tails below. I don’t care about the new ath on the cash index since I trade the chart in front of me and that’s where the ath was in July and due to contract switch it’s now at 5782 while today hit 5756. The high was high enough to qualify as a tripple top now and we can sell off or make a new one above 5800. The dominant feature is the bull wedge and we are kinda closer to the middle than to the top or bottom. I can see this going either way to be honest. Ask yourself this, has the market a reason to sell off right now after the big rate cut? Answer was no before and definitely no after the cut. Does not mean it can not happen anyway. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge) key levels: 5660 - 5800 bull case: Bulls made another higher high and a higher low. Does not look that good for bulls to buy the close 5680 but it sure as hell does not look bearish. As long as support and resistance are holding, I lean bullish and scalp long. Market is still trading above the 4h 20ema and obviously the daily, so bulls remain in control. Obvious targets above are 5782 and then 5800. Invalidation is below 5665. bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5665 and that’s they only target for now. Until they can achieve that, they have no good arguments on their side. I do think market will spend some more time in this area before we see another breakout. If bears would get below 5665, their next target is the daily 20ema at 5640 and below that is the bull trend line around 5570. Invalidation is above 5810. short term: Neutral between 5665 - 5782. Big range but that’s today’s range where we wildly went up and down multiple times. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 5690 and selling 5720 but you needed wide stops to trade this.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
NQ idea $$$ no need for MapBook "Perseverance is not a long race; it is many short races one after the other." — Walter Elliot I predict will be heading back to the support level where market makers left sellers looking very sad. (19415 area) If you were looking at Bookmap which I am not 9 times out of 10 it would show there are orders waiting in at area. They have to drop price and come back and get that liquidity they left down in the 19415 area. (W) formed Thanks and hopefully this information benefits you .... like share and follow chat !!!! #TradeGod
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by TradeGod003
3
Triple Your Trade Accuracy with This Simple Trick Like a PROGood Morning Tradingview, Apologies for the delay in my recent posts over the past two days. Unfortunately, this was due to an oversight on my part. I missed a key detail in the trading platform's rules and mistakenly included my watermark on the charts. As a result, several of my posts were removed, and I was temporarily unable to post for 24 hours. I completely understand and respect the platform's guidelines, but I wanted to keep you informed and ensure you're not left wondering about my absence. Here’s a breakdown of potential entry points and trade management based on the chart I've shared, aligned with multi-touch confirmation and The Trinity Rule. We'll focus on how to approach both the bullish and bearish scenarios with structured decision-making: 1. Bullish Scenario (Green Path): The price currently appears to be testing a weekly trendline (third touch), which often signals a potential bullish continuation after the third touch confirms a reversal or trend continuation. Here's how to structure the trade: Entry Point: Wait for a Breakout: If the price breaks and closes above the upper consolidation zone, look for a confirmed breakout with momentum. Avoid entering prematurely, as false breakouts can occur. Confirm with Retest (Higher Probability Entry): After the breakout, wait for a potential retest of the consolidation zone or the top of the ascending wedge. A retest that holds (with rejection wicks or bullish engulfing patterns) adds confirmation for a long position. Reduced Risk Entry: You can enter with a smaller position on the breakout and add to the position on the retest, increasing exposure as the price confirms your bias​​. Stop-Loss Placement: Place the stop-loss just below the consolidation zone or below the retested area. This level serves as your risk threshold, accounting for potential fakeouts. If you are entering after the third touch of the trendline, the stop-loss can be placed below this key level to minimize risk​. Take-Profit Targets: First Target: Aim for the next key resistance zone at around 2,576 based on historical price action. Second Target: If momentum is strong, hold a portion of the trade for a larger move toward 2,592 (upper resistance). Trail the stop as price continues to move upward​. 2. Bearish Scenario (Yellow Path): If the price fails to break above the current consolidation and rejects the trendline, it indicates a potential bearish reversal. The descending path might target the 1-hour liquidity zone around 2,541, where you can expect the price to react. Entry Point: Breakout of Consolidation: If the price breaks below the consolidation, this signals a bearish continuation. Enter on a confirmed breakout, with a strong bearish candle close below support. Aggressive Entry: You may consider entering on the third rejection at the top of the consolidation, especially if there's a clear bearish reversal pattern (e.g., shooting star or bearish engulfing)​​. Reduced Risk Entry: Wait for the price to break below the consolidation and enter on a retest of the broken support, confirming the bearish momentum. This provides a lower-risk entry with better confirmation​. Stop-Loss Placement: Above the consolidation or the most recent swing high where rejection occurred, giving enough room for market fluctuations. Ensure that the stop isn’t too tight, as you could get caught in price noise​. Take-Profit Targets: First Target: The 15-minute liquidity zone around 2,560 is a reasonable first target, where you may partially close your position. Final Target: The key 1-hour liquidity zone at 2,541 is the more substantial target for a full bearish continuation. Be mindful of how price reacts near this zone; you may want to take profits before a reversal happens​​. Management Tips: Scaling In and Out: Whether bullish or bearish, consider splitting your position into smaller entries. This allows you to enter part of the trade with confirmation and add more as price action continues in your favor. Use of Flags for Re-entries: After the initial breakout in either direction, look for flags or continuation patterns to re-enter the trade or add to an existing position. For example, after a bullish breakout, wait for a flag and enter on the next wave up​​. Regular Monitoring and Adjustments: As the price moves in your favor, trail your stop-loss to lock in profits. This is especially important during strong momentum moves to avoid giving back profits to the market. Psychological Considerations: Avoid FOMO: Don’t rush into trades if you're unsure about the breakout or failure of a level. Let the price action confirm your bias. Avoid Overtrading: Stick to your Rule of Three guidelines. Ensure at least three confirming factors align with your analysis before entering​.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Adlercon333