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2024-09-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Strong second leg up (daily tf) and bulls even tried to break above the bear flag but for now I doubt the breakout will be succesful. We are right in the middle of the broad bear channel and odds are 50/50 for either side. Above 72 odds rise for the bulls and below 69.5 I favor the bears again. comment: In my weekly outlook I wrote that if 65 holds, bulls are favored for 73 or 74. High today was 71.92. I doubt bulls are strong enough to break above the bull channel and make the pullback even steeper. 50% pullback from the selloff since 77 is around 71.5, so we are right in the middle of the broad bear channel. Odds favor the bears to test the lower bull channel around 70.5 again. If bulls fail there and bears can break below, we will likely see a retest of 67 or 66. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 66 - 74 bull case: Bulls got decent follow through and they want an endless pullback for the bears and keep going until they hit the upper bear trend line around 74.5. They are trading above the 4h 20ema and every touch of it is bought. As long as they keep it above 70, higher prices are expected. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears see this bear flag with 3 pushes up as done and the 50% pb is high enough to try for a continuation of the bear trend. Don’t be among the first to join them. Confirmation would be a 15m bar close below 70 and a break below the bull channel. Invalidation is above 72. short term: Neutral around the 50% pb 71.5. Bearish below 70 and bullish above 72. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-08: Bears broke below multi month support and want a retest of 64.46 or lower. Right now the selling is a bit too steep to be sustainable. When we get a more complex pullback and form a decent channel, I will write a longer update here. Can this bear trend be the start of a bigger where we see Oil below 50$ again? I have absolutely no idea but the current daily chart can not not lead to that conclusion. current swing trade : None trade of the day: Buying the 4h 20ema is profitable again.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Many new highs but also a deep pullback and we closed around the middle of the daily range. Are we smarter than yesterday? We know that bulls remain in control since we are trading above most higher tf ema but bears also sold off for 1% today on the sp500. I keep my neutral stance and wait for the FOMC debacle to be over with. No one knows where markets will go on either 25 or 50bps. Be more like Elsa, let it go. You don’t have to gamble away hard earned profits on max confused and undecided markets. dax futures comment: Bulls got above my given target 18750 in my weekly update but got rejected for almost 200 points. Market is still neutral imo and I don’t expect this to change until some hours after FOMC. Since the market is so confusing and no one knows where rates might go, we can expect traps before and after FOMC. I refuse to trade much tomorrow. current market cycle: big bull wedge on the daily tf and bull channel on the 1h tf key levels: 18600 - 18900 bull case: Bulls printed 18800 and this could have been it before FOMC. We are 270 points below the ath (xetra) and we could easily get there. That’s also the only target left for the bulls. As long as the bull channel holds, they are in control and favored for higher prices. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears reversed much of today’s gains and did so in a fast manner. Bulls still bought it again, like the previous week. Bears need to start making lower lows again or bulls continue to btfd. Bears first target is to get below 18600 which would also break the bull channel. If you look at the daily chart we have many tails above and below bars. Bulls are grinding higher but it can reverse quickly imo. 1h ema is pretty flat, so don’t get trapped selling low or buying high. Invalidation is above 18820. short term: Neutral. Only scalping small positions until we know how market thinks FOMC is to be interpreted. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Globex lows held and the long after the double bottom around 18680 was good. Also selling the second try by the bears when bulls failed at 18800 (double top) but it’s hard to be this flexible on bigger swings. If you took one of those, you probably had an amazing day.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Detailed Support and Resistance Analysis Here is my latest structure analysis and important key levels to pay close attention to on WTI Crude Oil. Vertical Structures Vertical Resistance 1: Falling Trend Line Horizontal Structures Resistance 1: 71.46 - 71.90 area Resistance 2: 73.80 - 74.30 area Resistance 3: 76.00 - 77.60 area Resistance 4: 79.60 - 80.16 area Support 1: 63.80 - 65.70 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILShort
by VasilyTrader
1
Important data, GOLD traded quite narrowly ahead of FOMCOANDA:XAUUSD there are many fluctuations but still maintain the main uptrend, on this trading day the market will receive US retail sales data, this data will have a certain influence on the decision of the Federal Reserve (FED) this week. Today (Tuesday), the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for August. Economists expect US retail sales to fall 0.2% monthly in August, after rising 1% in July. US retail sales data typically has a greater impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold. August data is expected to be lower than July's positive data and is expected to guide the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, favoring a 50 basis point cut instead of a 25 basis point cut. copy. Of course, this is negative for the US Dollar and positive for gold. While retail sales data will be the primary focus today, the focus this week is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due to be announced on Wednesday. According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has jumped to 67.0%. Less than a week ago, the market believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while only 25% believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This is a signal that the possibility of a 50bps cut on Wednesday is becoming more solid. Since gold does not yield interest, a low interest rate environment can reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is more beneficial for gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Temporarily, gold is still trading in a fairly narrow range but the main uptrend has not changed technically with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 moving average as the main support. Gold's short-term uptrend is limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, which readers noticed in the weekly publication on Sunday. For gold to have enough conditions to increase in price further, it needs to bring price activity above 2,582 USD, and this is also the current closest resistance level. Even if gold has not been able to break the $2,582 level to reach the next short-term target level at the original price point of $2,600 and beyond the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it still has a bullish bias. However, corrections can still occur because the technical principle is that the market will not be able to move in a straight line, and the immediate correction in the short term will be limited by the Fibonacci 0.50% price point of 2,561. USD, this is considered the closest support level currently. During the day, gold's uptrend may encounter short-term corrections with notable price levels listed below. Support: 2,575 – 2,561USD Resistance: 2,600 – 2,612USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2610 →Take Profit 1 2599 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2594 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2544 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2540 →Take Profit 1 2551 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2556
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-09-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Since today was a very slow day, my weekly update is more interesting than today’s daily update (in case you haven’t read it). Indexes - Disappointment for the bulls was my assumption for today and that we got. Boring sideways movement in tight trading ranges. DJI was the only market with strength, printing a new ath but closing below 41700, so probably mostly a liquidity grap. Wednesday we have FOMC and I don’t expect markets to move far away from their current ranges. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small green doji on the daily chart. Not much to comment about. Market closed 11 points above the open price and mean reversion was profitable today. I expect the triangle on the daily to hold until FOMC. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 -5670 bull case: Please see my weekly update. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears got 1 decent bear bar on the 1h chart and bulls bought it. Until bears can print 3-4 consecutive bear bars on the 1h tf, they have nothing going for them. Best they can hope for is to stay below 5670 Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Neutral between 5600-5670 and I don’t expect a break of this range until FOMC. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying bar 39 low was perfect but any bar from 39-46 was ok. Market clearly did not want to go lower then open price is always an obvious magnet on ranging days.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
WTI recovered insignificantly, bearish factors prevailedWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL opened down to 68.94 USD/barrel as of the time this article was completed. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last Thursday that global crude oil demand is cooling while output outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ( OPEC+) continues to increase. According to IEA data, the organization predicts non-OPEC+ crude oil production will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2025. The fact that supply is continuously expanding while market demand is not enough to compensate is the most noticeable pressure on the oil market at the present time. West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 15% this quarter on concerns about falling demand. The International Energy Agency said that global consumption growth in the first half of the year reached its lowest level since the epidemic. In that context, OPEC+, an organization of oil producing countries, postponed plans to relax supply restrictions, and Libya's oil output continued to decline. About supporting factors With the recent conflict in Libya and a series of geopolitical crises in recent years, the market is not without upside potential, although these factors have not yet had a profound enough impact on the market. common school. Combined with the fact that the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates at its meeting next week after the labor market showed signs of slowing and traders are more optimistic that policymakers policy will cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Lower borrowing costs could support economic growth and increased energy demand. These may provide negligible fundamental support in the near term. However, the oil market needs to pay more attention to Supply - Demand and OPEC+ factors. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil recovered but remained in a long-term downtrend noted by the price channel and pressure from EMA21. Crude oil's fall below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart would open the door for a new bearish cycle with the target then at $67.25 in the short term, more so than $65.2. On the other hand, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel, the downtrend remains dominant, but maintaining price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci level will be the factor that pushes it to recover a little further with resistance near highest at 70.9USD. Looking at the overall picture, the trend of WTI crude oil is to decrease in price with technical levels that will be noticed again as follows. Support: 68.74 – 67.25USD Resistance: 70.28 – 70.90USD
TVC:USOILShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continuously sets new peaks, conditions for 2,600 USDEnd of last trading week, OANDA:XAUUSD Spots hit a new all-time record high, building on the strength and momentum received from Thursday, as the market bullishly priced in the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. . Gold prices have surged this year, driven by the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, central bank buying and strong safe-haven demand from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. pushed up gold prices. Safe-haven demand has pushed gold up more than 24%, driven by geopolitical crises and economic uncertainty, as well as strong central bank buying. Last week, the World Gold Council said global physical gold exchange-traded funds saw capital inflows for the fourth consecutive month in August. As the Federal Reserve's next meeting on September 18 approaches, markets are paying close attention to the possibility of the US cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020. Low interest rates tend to support gold and creating pressure on the USD. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows investors now see a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a 50% chance of a 50 basis point cut next week in US interest rates. Looking ahead, the gold market this week will focus on important events such as the Fed's interest rate decision and the revised Dotplot chart, comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the post-FOMC press conference, expected will create big fluctuations in the market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold achieved the target increase sent to readers in the issue at the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension and the upward momentum slowed, narrowing below this level. Looking at it comprehensively, gold is still completely capable of continuing to increase in price as the Relative Strength Index points up with a large slope but has not gone above the overbought level, showing that there is still room for upward momentum. still ahead. In the short term, as long as gold remains within the price channel and above the EMA21, its trend remains bullish and pullbacks that do not break these supports should only be considered technical corrections without change trend. In the immediate future, if the gold price is pushed above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will have enough conditions to continue to increase to the original price of 2,600 USD and more than the 0.786% Fibonacci price point of 2,612 USD. The uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,561 – 2,567USD Resistance: 2,590 – 2,613USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2601 - 2599⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2594 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2589 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2553 - 2555⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2549 →Take Profit 1 2560 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2565
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400. Quote from last week: comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 - 5700 bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. → Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook. short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 16 - Sep 20]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased quite sharply, from 2,485 USD/oz to 2,585 USD/oz and closed at 2,579 USD/oz. The reason international gold prices increased sharply this week is because the market expects the FED to strongly cut interest rates at its meeting next week, with a cut of up to 50 percentage points. However, considering economic data and the current US economic situation, the FED can only cut interest rates by 25 percentage points. This week, we saw the US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than the expected increase of 2.6% and down sharply from the increase of 2.5%. .9% in July. However, core CPI, excluding energy and food prices, increased by 3.2%, a slight increase compared to July's data. Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate in August decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%, although this figure is still high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year ago. In particular, GDP in the second quarter in the most recent adjustment increased to 3% over the same period last year, much higher than the previously announced 2.8%... All of the above data shows that although the US economy has slowed down, inflation is cooling down, and the labor market is still difficult, it cannot fall into a short-term recession. Therefore, the FED will likely only cut interest rates by 25 percentage points. In principle, when the FED cuts interest rates, gold prices will increase. However, the increase in gold prices next week will depend on the level of interest rate cuts by the FED. Currently, there is only about a 43% chance that the FED will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Therefore, if the FED only cuts interest rates by 25 percentage points, next week's gold price could still rise above the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz, but then will be under pressure from investors to sell and take profits. If the FED cuts interest rates by up to 50 percentage points, gold prices next week could increase far beyond the threshold of 2,600 USD/oz. While the Fed's decision will be the focus of the gold market next week, other important economic data could also cause some volatility in gold prices next week, such as manufacturing figures. , housing market and retail sales data. In addition, after the FED's monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their monetary policy decisions. 📌Technically, in the short term for the H4 technical chart, after a period of cumulative sideways movement, this week the gold price has broken out of the old peak at 2530 and far exceeded this resistance level. In the immediate future, the gold price will correct. Recovering the round resistance level of 2600. However, divergence signals have appeared on almost all time frames from Weekly, Daily, H4... (Divergence does not mean the price will decrease. Divergence in the financial market In general, the forex market in particular reflects that buyers are no longer interested in high prices. However, there has been no profit-taking action, so the price divergence gives us a warning not to participate buy more, although the price may continue to break to new highs) Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.530 – 2.561USD Resistance: 2.613 – 2.582USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2601 - 2599⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2605 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2523 - 2525⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2519
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
$BTC doing exactly what we said...Was away and have not posted here in some time. Was away and had a few things neded to take care of. Please see profile for more info on that. Will consolidate everything we have said on #Bitcoin over last few days. CRYPTOCAP:BTC was worth a shot early this week or late last week. We bought overnight Sun - Mon. Mid 60's is likely around the corner. Don't see #BTC in the high 60's but 67k is definitely possible. Buy volume is still WEAK. Not crazy about that BUT at least it has been more buys, sellers might be done for now.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
1
Nq1! Nasdaq Long term ForecastWhile many switch to a bullish bias for CME_MINI:NQ1! because of expectations of a interest rate cut on 18th of September, I remain bearish because markets price in before these events and the rate cut was expected for a long time. We see on the daily chart a double bottom, which is market makers' favorite liquidity to take out. Again on the daily chart, we see that price took out the buy-side liquidity and now is in the Daily Optimal Trade Entry of the last down move. I expect to see the double bottom to be taken out in the upcoming weeks. Please note that this can take a lot of time and we can still see a full recovery to All Time Highs before we take out the double bottom. You can boost the idea for free if you have a paid plan and if the idea helped you. Thanks for reading I wish you all good and safe trades.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by TradeConfirmed
2
Achieving the target increase, highest GOLD of all timeOANDA:XAUUSD The increase reached all target levels sent to readers for many weeks and established a new era peak. The uptrend did not change both fundamentally and technically after PPI inflation data was published. After the European Central Bank announced its monetary policy on Thursday and the United States released relevant macroeconomic data, spot gold prices rose to a record high and are currently maintaining their upward momentum. during the Asian trading session on September 13. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on Thursday, but President Christine Lagarde downgraded expectations for another rate cut next month, saying the central bank will decide on policy action Next is based on economic data. The Euro has risen stronger than the USD and this is also an unfavorable impact for the USD. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims for the week ended September 7 were 230,000, up 2,000 from the previous reporting period and higher than last year. Market expectation is 225,000. Other data on Thursday showed the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.7% year-on-year in August, less than the 1.8% expected while core PPI rose 2.4% over the same period last year, also lower than the expected level of 2.5%. The lower-than-expected PPI inflation data boosted market sentiment with more confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates significantly next week. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold achieved all of the target increases sent to readers in the multi-week issue at 2,531 – 2,544 USD, it set a new era record and continues to price increase. In the immediate future, using trend-following Fibonacci extensions shows that the closest target level that gold can aim for is 2,582 USD, the Fibonacci 0.618% price point. On the other hand, even if gold corrects lower, the losses will be limited by the 0.382% Fibonacci price point of $2,540, or more than $2,531. However, the trend of gold in the short, medium and long term will still be price increase. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has short-term upside prospects with the EMA21 level being noted as key support for the time being. During the day, the bullish outlook for scum prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,544 – 2,540 – 2,531USD Resistance: 2,582 – 2,600 – 2,612USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2584 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2579 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2518 - 2520⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2514 →Take Profit 1 2525 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2530
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong follow through by the bulls after another nasty bear trap. On lower time frames we got some sell spikes but mostly due to bulls taking profits and not strong bears shorting. Bullish price action can’t be denied and on the daily charts we are moving closer to the shallow bear trend lines from the ath and we are mostly inside triangles. Daily charts tell the story and it’s bullish so we can’t expect a strong bear reversal tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is still my preferred pattern for now. Tomorrow we could see 5640 but anything above is uncertain. At that level I would get out of most longs. Currently I don’t have any interest in selling, since we have seen many bear traps. Today bears could not close a 1h bar below the 20ema, so look how market behaves if we get there again tomorrow. Buy on strength and don’t get fooled into shorts on strong selling. It was strong but disappeared in an instance and bulls melted higher again. current market cycle: t rading range and also minor bull trend inside since we are making higher lows and higher highs key levels: 5400 -5650 bull case: Bulls bought 5550 until bears gave up. The selling around the open was strong enough to trap many bears and that’s why the move up was so violent again. Bulls are in full control until we make lower lows again. Targets above are obvious. Next one is open of the month + high of the month around 5670 and above that is the ath 5721. Last time we got above 5600, market did go sideways for 10 days and this time we could see a breakout above or below somewhat faster. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 5580 but since they could not close below the 1h for 3h, they gave up and market moved up in a perfect small pullback bull trend which held above the 1m 20ema for an hour and 35 points. So what’s next for bears? Do or die moment around 5650 to keep it a lower high. If they fail, we most likely print a new ath. Rough guess is that bears won’t try to close the week with a red bar but just keep it below 5670. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Max bullishness as long as the 1h 20ema is not broken and until we hit 5650/5660. I’d close longs there on any weakness and probably won’t do anything until next week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Only intraday scalps currently. Still think next 500 points are made to the downside and not up. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap on the US open was as perfect of a trade as it gets.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - There it is. Another break above, which was expected more than bears breaking below 2500. Bulls want 2600 and I expect more profit taking and more sideways movement at that level. No interest in selling it. gold comment: New ath, which I have been writing about for many weeks now on the premise that as long as bears could not even break below 2500, there was no alternative to being bullish. The breakout was a matter of when and not if. Market refused to close below the daily ema for 5 days despite touching it 4 times. That’s strong bulls scaling into longs. What’s next? We are at the top of the bull channel and every time market made a new high, bulls took bigger profits. Will this time be different? I doubt it. Can bulls break above the bull channel for much higher prices? Doubt that too. Will look for weakness and scalp some shorts tomorrow. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 2500 - 2600 bull case: Bulls want 2600 and somewhat above to run stops. Nothing unexpected. I highly doubt that have bigger interest in printing much higher than 2600, given the previous sell offs after new ath. 15m 20ema was not touched on the whole move up, so look for longs once we get there before we hit 2600. Invalidation is below 2550. bear case: Bears gave up above 2560 and I can’t see them coming around big time below 2600 so don’t waste energy on looking for shorts until it’s clear that bulls have no interest in buying anymore. Bears need a break of the 15m and 1h ema to begin with. Invalidation is above 2610. short term: Bullish for 2600 and then only interested in shorts again. medium-long term: Will update on the weekend. Bulls are clearly much stronger than most expected. Market refuses to go down. current swing trade: None trade of the day : If in doubt, zoom out. 1h chart showed only strength since Globex. Buy anywhere and make money.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
USD & GOLD Market Review September 12, 2024Real Volume Analysis of Gold in the Gold Future => Looking at the chart shows that the market is still very interested in the BULL position and especially the HIGH position at the peak. Analyze Macroeconomic News with USD Chart Yesterday we had CPI inflation data, important data to prepare for the September FOMC meeting next week. What are the data announced yesterday? - At a glance, we have good data for USD, when one index is higher than expected: 0.3 > 0.2 - But looking closely, we have conflicting data when a 3-star CPI index has lower actual data than before: 2.5 < 2.9 ==> However, USD still increased and maintained a higher mark in the current week. If combined with last week's NONFARM news, we have a rising price channel forming for the USD. ==> But because the CPI data is not standard, I predict that the USD cannot break to the top of 102. Instead, it only sideways around 101.5 and 101.9 SPDR Gold Trust Analysis 2 consecutive days this week, also the first transaction in September. SPDR Gold Trust continues to increase its gold reserves as GOLD continues to increase in price. Comparing the SPDR and GOLD charts during the US session, we see that the trading volume is at the end of the session and at high prices. ==> Shows that SPDR is still increasing reserves at a high level Gold Strength Analysis GoldStrength chart compares to Gold. GoldStrength is the valuation of Gold in many gold markets in many countries. This is also the reason why we can see GoldStrength has a bullish breakout structure before GOLD. Because countries are in the process of cutting interest rates, gold prices in countries such as EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, USD, .... are increasing due to weakening local currencies. That's why Gold and USD can increase in phase. => Gold Strength had breakthroughs earlier than current Gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
After CPI, focus on PPI and GOLD towards targetOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered after falling in yesterday's trading session due to the impact of US data, but these impacts will not be too negative for gold's uptrend in terms of both fundamental and technical aspects. . The US CPI report creates obstacles for the Fed's ability to cut interest rates by 50bps • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month in August, in line with market expectations. • US CPI in August increased by 2.5% over the same period last year, decreasing for the 5th consecutive month, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous level of 2.9%. • However, it is worth noting that core CPI in the United States increased 0.3% month-on-month in August, the largest increase in 4 months and a higher increase than the expected increase of 0.2%. . (Typically the core inflation rate reflects underlying inflation better than the overall CPI). • US core CPI increased 3.2% year-on-year in August, in line with forecasts. Higher-than-expected US core inflation data will become an issue for the Federal Reserve over the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the next FOMC. The focus now is on monthly core CPI data, which tends to raise concerns about persistent inflation. This could completely cause the FOMC to appear in the near future to oppose a strong interest rate cut, or no 50bps cut. According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, markets now assess an 87% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, compared with a 71% chance before the CPI data was released. This metaphor will change over time, especially after data is released, describing how market sentiment is leaning towards the Fed's interest rates. Markets will now focus on the release of the US producer price index and initial jobless claims today (Thursday). Basically, as we have sent to readers throughout recent publications, even if the impact of the data is not good, gold will still receive support from monetary policy, because the Fed will have to start the cycle. interest rate cut period. Some readers have asked, how much will gold increase and when will it increase? I certainly will not be able to answer this question. But it can be easily seen that gold will still have conditions to increase until the Fed stops reducing interest rates, and when the Fed stops reducing interest rates, I don't know anymore because I have some friends in the US but don't. Who is Jerome Powell? Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold corrected downward in yesterday's trading session and received support from the support confluence area noticed by readers at EMA21 and the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, It has recovered and continued its short-term uptrend. The target level and short-term upside structure are unchanged with a target of $2,531 in the short term, more than $2,544 to set a new all-time high. The relative strength index RSI is pointing up, still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. During the day, gold's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2546 - 2544⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2550 →Take Profit 1 2539 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2534 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2489 - 2491⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2485 →Take Profit 1 2496 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2501
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-09-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: I try to stick to the only important pattern for me right now. Huge triangle, fits the unclear and erratic direction of the current price action. 19600 will likely be tested again because bulls just bought too strongly today. I’d be surprised if we break above 19700 though. If we do, no reason not to print 20000 or a new ath. current market cycle: trading range - triangle on the daily chart key levels: 18300 - 19800 bull case: Bulls trapped many bears today and printed a nasty reversal. I think most bears already gave up and we are free to trade to at least 19600. Problem with longs is the stop. Right now you would have to do 18600 and that’s just dumb. So should you wait for a pullback? Yes. Invalidation is below 18900. bear case: Do bears have any arguments until 19600? I don’t think so. There is a minor trend line running 19300ish but its weak. The bigger trend line from the ath is more likely and there I expect more resistance from the bears. If bears somehow manage to drop it below 18900 again, market is probably neutral again. Invalidation is above 19300. short term: max bullish for 19600, if bulls come around again tomorrow. Would like to see a pullback to the 1h or at least 15m ema. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade : Nope. trade of the day: Buying 18600 was profitable since Monday.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-09-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - What a bear trap that was. Many decent double bottoms and then straight up melting. Many markets did not even touch the 3m 20ema on the move up. Bulls took full control again imo and I expect the highs to be retested, if not broken. SP500 the strongest of the ones I trade. Very very low chance of this being a bull trap after a bear trap and we reverse hard tomorrow but at this point of the chop, I won’t rule anything out. dax futures comment: Dax is not looking that strong like the sp500 does. Technically it’s currently just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and odds still favor the bears for another leg down. If the bulls break above 18550, that changes and bulls are favored to trade back to 18800 and above. Very important day tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range until either 18550 or 18200 broken key levels: 18200 - 18550 bull case: Strong reversal after the double bottom around 18220 today. If bulls generate follow through above 18550 tomorrow, many bears could give up and we see an acceleration upwards. Invalidation is below 18400 (not sure about the invalidation level as of now). bear case: Bears need a bit of a miracle tomorrow to prevent the bulls from breaking above 18550. The bear channel is gone and the 4h ema too. What arguments do bears have? Well, the current price action is wild in both directions. Since Friday we are in a 400ish point trading range. Technically, on the daily chart, it’s still just a two legged pullback to the daily ema and bears could try to get another leg down, I just highly doubt those arguments are better than the bullish ones. Invalidation is above 18550. short term : I wait for the breakout above given price. Bears would need to trade below 18400 before I think about shorts again. 18500 is a bad spot to enter new positions. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this. current swing trade: None. trade of the day : Short near the 4h ema was once again a very good trade. Buying the double bottom bar 4 Tuesday and bar 4 today.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
Dow Jones (YW): Key Levels to Watch Before CPI ReleaseThe Dow Jones (YW) is approaching crucial levels ahead of the upcoming CPI data release. The chart highlights key red and green lines where price action could intensify, offering potential buy and sell opportunities. Traders should stay alert as volatility may spike following the data. What’s your take on these levels? Share your thoughts, and follow for more timely insights! *Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly!*
CBOT_MINI:YMU2024
by Remora_traders
CPI data focus, GOLD targets price increaseOANDA:XAUUSD Break above $2,500 and stabilize above this key raw price, which is beneficial to the uptrend and has been the target level that has been of interest to readers over the past several weeks. This trading day, notable is the US CPI data today and the European Central Bank policy meeting tomorrow. Today (Wednesday), the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August will be released. This will be the last important macro data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September. Whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points may depend on this . Surveys show that the US annual core CPI growth rate in August is expected to decline from 2.9% to 2.6%, while the annual core CPI growth rate is expected to maintain at 3.2%. If CPI increases from last month, US Treasury yields could rise again, putting gold under some pressure. On the other hand, if the data is at or below market expectations, it will cause the US Dollar to continue to sell off, helping gold move higher. Unless CPI is much higher than expected, the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. If month-over-month CPI growth is lower than expected, a 50 basis point cut is possible. will happen. Geopolitical risks have a new point Israel may have 'accidentally killed' US activists in attack on Palestinian camp, leaving 19 dead. Israel's military said Tuesday that a U.S. activist killed in the West Bank last week may have been shot "indirectly and unintentionally" by Israeli soldiers, a move that drew strong condemnation from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken strong. Israel said it has opened a criminal investigation into the murder of 26-year-old Seattle activist Aysenur Ezgi Eygi. Blinken condemned the deadly shooting when asked about it at a news conference in London and said the United States would make clear to allies that such behavior was "unacceptable." According to AP News, Palestinian officials said Israel attacked a crowded Palestinian camp in the Gaza Strip early Tuesday morning local time, killing at least 19 people and injuring 60 others. Elsewhere, Reuters reported that Ukraine carried out its largest drone attack to date in the Moscow region on Tuesday, killing at least one person and destroying dozens of homes and businesses. forcing about 50 flights to be diverted from airports around Moscow. Obviously, geopolitical risks are still present, and every time the market is quiet it appears as a huge supportive force for gold prices. Therefore, considering the current geopolitical context, gold is always supported, because gold is always the leading safe haven asset whenever risks appear in the market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues its uptrend with the previous two consecutive days of gains from the key near-term support area that has been presented to readers over the past several periods, at the EMA21 level confluence with the lower edge of the price channel and 0.786% Fibonacci Extension level. On the other hand, the horizontal support level at 2,484 USD is also a reliable short-term support level for the uptrend. There is not much change in the upward structure of gold prices, the multi-week target levels continue to be fixed at 2,531 USD in the short term and more at 2,544 USD. The relative strength index RSI is also bent upward with a pretty good slope, this is a positive signal depicting the wide room for price growth ahead. During the day, the rising prospect of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2546 - 2544⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2550 →Take Profit 1 2539 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2534 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2495 - 2497⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2491 →Take Profit 1 2503 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2508
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading