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2024-09-04 - priceactiontds - short daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bearish bias confirmed. Bulls getting nervous by now. More bad data releases and markets are leaving bear gaps unclosed. Today we also made lower lows and the pullbacks were shallow. All good for the bears and the odds of another strong leg down and a measured move got higher today. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Many of the same arguments as for dax. Very strong leg down and bears want another one. Measured move target would be 5350-5370. Market closed 5 points above the open, so a big nothingburger but both sides made money today. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls made money today if they were quick to take profits but the problem is, that the pullback was not high enough to seriously question the bear case. Bulls need to fight for 5500 or we get the second leg down. Same easy if-this-then-that scenario for most indexes. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears confirmed the leg down with lower lows and a shallow pullback, which they sold again. They closed below the daily ema and also left a bear gap open, though a small one. First target below 5500 is 5420 which is the 50% pullback from the bull rally. Invalidation is above 5666. short term: Bearish. Below 5500 I become full bear again but can also see this going a bit more sideways. I do expect this week to close deep red and below 5500. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope and will only do on bigger swing short it will probably be dax. trade of the day : Very strong open and longs were good. After that it was so two sided and no obvious amazing trade. In hindsight it was an obvious short but not as it was happening imo. Market had strong two sided trading during news releases. After bar 11 close I expected market to close nearer to the open price and scalped some shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
POPCAT: Our Next Crypto Swing PlayIt's been a while since we posted any crypto swing trades. The last few months have been particularly challenging for swing plays, and we made very good profits just by scalping in August. However, we've been closely monitoring the higher time frames, and we believe we've found a potential play with POPCAT. For this trade to work out, we need BTC to behave, but so far, everything looks good, and the depth of the retracement is consistent with prior pullbacks. Recently, POPCAT has shown a change in structure after what seems to be a completed Wave (2). We want to bid on this continuation with a wider stop loss because there's a 12H FVG below that is relatively important for altcoins. There's a chance that we tag this FVG before rising higher, though a body close below it would invalidate our bullish outlook. Therefore, we're cautious but still want to place this bid, and we will DCA down if necessary. We'll keep you updated whenever we make any moves. As for targets, we're looking to go above the high of the latest COS, then the fair value gap above, and finally, a continuation above the current Wave (1). If we get this far, we would let it run as a moonbag, but we'll keep you informed regardless.
Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Huge bear surprise today. The strength of the selling was absolutely unexpected. Bulls closed August at the very high and had all the arguments to print new ath but as of now, this selling is different and new highs are now very unlikely. Most daily charts printed a huge outside down bar, closing at the lows and below the daily ema. If bears get follow through tomorrow, they have taken control of the market and we might take the elevator down again. sp500 e-mini futures Here is the quote from my weekly update: bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us. comment : Market went only down today and did not touch the 15m ema, so it only makes sense to talk about the daily chart. Bears did exactly what they needed to do in order to make more bulls take profits. Now comes the most important part. If they let the bulls have a bigger pullback, this might go above 5650 again but if it stays below 5600 and we print 5490, that would certainly hit the last stops and could accelerate this down hard. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls are running for the exits. They want to secure the profits from the insane reversal over the last weeks. I expect many more stops around 5490 and bulls need to prevent the market from getting there. Bulls have the slight hope this was an early sell climax with a bear trap below the daily ema and the expanding triangle. If they can get above 5600 again, their case is valid and we could get back above 5640 again. Invalidation is below 5490/5500. bear case: Bears have all arguments on their side, if they keep the pullback shallow and print below 5500 tomorrow. Seasonality is on their side this month and since the market is in a very volatile state, it’s possible to see 5000 this month. The first bigger target for the bears is obviously every round number, so 5500 but I do think 5400-5420 is the real target because that is the 50% pb from the recent bull rally. I will look to see if the 1h ema will hold tomorrow. Max bearishness would be to go sideways between 5500-5560 until bears want the bigger second leg down. Invalidation is above 5660. short term: Bearish but I expect a pullback before another leg down. Need to see how strong bulls are tomorrow. First bigger target for the bears is 5400. medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Sell anywhere and hold. Sounds a lot easier than it is but those are the hard facts. If you struggle to do that, you need to come up with strategies to force yourself to swing part of your position and not close until a clear signal appears. Today had no signal to exit shorts.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-09-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Huge day for the bears. Both bull trend lines I had on my daily chart are now broken. 70 should be bigger resistance for now though. I expect the market to go sideways 69.5 - 71 for more time before another impulse. If bears manage to get below 69.5 tomorrow, that would bring 67 in play and really bad for the bulls. Neutral inside given range after such climactic selling but will join either side on strong momentum. comment : Very interesting day for the bears. We broke below the triangle and are at the huge support price 70. Bulls need to step in big here or next stop is 67. If bulls come around big time and bears fail to keep it below 72, they could face a bear trap and another move back up inside the trading range. Big day tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle now) key levels: 70 - 73 bull case : Bulls are in do or die mode tomorrow. Fail at 70 and we will go 67 next. If they could generate strong buying, bears could fear a trap and exit longs. Most reasonable outlook is some sideways to up movement tomorrow. Bulls need anything above 72. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears are now in full control of the market and they want to break below 70 and retest the December and January close/open prices around 67. Oil has not traded below 70 since June and there only for 2 days. Bears would need a big surprise again to break the 70 price. On the 1h chart there is a clean bear channel, which would go as high as 73.5 as of now. That channel is my preferred pattern for now. Invalidation is above 73. short term: Neutral. Expecting some sideways to up movement unless bears print a 15m bear bar below 70. Bears in control. medium-long term: T riangle is dead. 70 has to hold or we might be in a new bear trend to 60 or lower. Will update after this week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting the double top above 74. Had to get short latest below 73 when the 15m or 1h bear bar closed.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Data Week, attention to jobs gets special attention from the FedOANDA:XAUUSD fell about 1% as the USD and US Treasury bond yields increased sharply after US inflation data matched expectations over the weekend. However, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy in September and geopolitical tensions still pose many risks, gold still has a lot of potential fundamental support. Gold prices closed slightly lower last week but still maintained the 2,500 USD/ounce mark. This week, investors will receive US ISM data and non-farm payrolls reports, which are expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. The latest data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, in line with economists' forecasts. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Signs of steady buying from central banks in emerging markets also supported prices. Also notable is data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing that as of the week of August 27, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts increased 69 lots to 236,818 lots. Next Tuesday, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August will be a highlight in US economic data in the early days of the week. The market expects the overall PMI to rise to 47.8 from 46.8 in July. If the index is above 50, that could directly boost the US dollar and put pressure on gold in the short term. ADP employment changes and ISM services PMI data will also be released on Wednesday and Thursday, but the market reaction to these data is likely to be immediate and short-lived. A positive surprise data will support the USD and negative data pressure the USD ahead of the widely anticipated August jobs report next Friday. US nonfarm payrolls (NFP), due out next Friday, are expected to increase by 163,000 in August after a disappointing increase of 114,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2 % from 4.3% and wage inflation, measured by changes in average hourly earnings, is expected to increase 0.3% from the previous month. NFP data next week will be the main focus, because during the Jackson Hole conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members also focused a lot on employment data in the near future. It is expected that next week the market will have significant turbulence when NFP data will be the center of the big storm. Economic data to watch this week Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, US JOLTS vacancies Thursday: ADP employment data; US ISM services PMI, US weekly initial jobless claims Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold had a correction late last week, overall the daily chart of gold prices still shows a solid uptrend. With the price channel making an upward trend in the short term, as long as gold remains in the price channel and above the EMA21 moving average, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future, with targets still being fixed at 2,531USD in the short term and more to the point of 2,544USD. Although the Relative Strength Index is pointing down, it has not yet reached the overbought level before turning down, and the slope is negligible, so this is not considered a signal of pressure and support. for this Indicator is noted at 50%. The fact that gold closed above 2,484 USD and the original price level of 2,500 USD shows a positive technical outlook, and the uptrend in the near future will be noticed again by the following price points. Support: 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2551 - 2549⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2555 →Take Profit 1 2544 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2539 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2512 - 2514⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2517 →Take Profit 1 2505 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2495 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2484 - 2486⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2479 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2470 - 2472⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2467 →Take Profit 1 2475 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bulls confirmed the breakout with a strong monthly close above 2500. There are multiple nested wedges currently and I would not buy into the highs but rather wait for a pullback or a breakout above 2570. Last thing you should do right now is to look for shorts until bears come around big time. Last time bears even touched the weekly ema was end of February. Quote from last week: comment: Did we learn anything from a sideways week? We have a bullish pattern and a technical textbook pullback a bit above the ema. Bulls bought it and that is bullish. But only a break above 2570 is confirmation. Resistance is always that until it breaks, no matter how strong you think the trend is/looks/feels and this trend inside a 5 month trading range is not strong so far. Bulls are trying the breakout and the monthly close will be the most important for them. If they manage their first close above 2500, it would be a confirmation and buy signal going into September. What could be a potential target above? Since the trading range was mostly between 2300 - 2500ish, we can do a measured move up and that would bring us to the ballpark around 2700. comment: Weekly inside bar. I am not lazy but I do not see any value in making up more words to fill the page so you can stay busy longer reading this. Market is neutral around 2530. Bulls need a daily close above 2570 and bears one below 2500. That’s it. Structure is still bullish. We have a big bull wedge on the weekly/monthly chart, nested bull wedges on lower time frames and sort of a bull channel upwards. I very slightly favor the bears to test 2500 again but only because bears closed last week at the lows. Daily ema held for 3 weeks now and there is no reason why it should break now and we are only 10 points above it. current market cycle: Trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months. Bulls are currently still trading above the previous highs, which is sort of confirmation of the breakout but I am not 100% convinced. Need a daily close above 2570 for that. key levels: 2400 - 2570 bull case: Bears not doing enough so bulls are happy to continue. They want 2600 next and have all arguments on their side as long as they stay above the daily ema at 2517. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. Exactly the same sentences as last week. Invalidation is above 2570. outlook last week: short term: Exactly the same as last week. Bears had a pullback and bulls bought it. Inherently bullish but only if bulls can break above 2570. → Last Sunday we traded 2546 and now we are at 2527. High of the week was 2564. 19 point miss over a week is as good as it gets. short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient. medium-long term: Above 2570 I will update this. Until then we are in a trading range 2400-2570. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed unnecessary lines and made the bullish structure more clear.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Current bullish leg looks more like a leg in a trading range than something of a new bull trend that breaks above the previous ath. It’s 50/50 if bulls can print a new ath or this stays a lower high. It’s too high to buy for anything but intraday and too early to short unless you short small and have a stop above 5800. It’s a bullish structure but you would be buying very high in a potential trading range. Bad R:R. Quote from last week: comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls need to break above 5670 if they want a new ath and it look’s very good after Friday. If they fail on Monday, I have my doubts that they can get it. Bulls are still clearly in control of the market or we would have been trading below the daily ema already. Will be interesting to see how many bears come around above 5700 and bulls taking profit, if we get there. Invalidation is below 5550. bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. Same observation as last week. Until bears print consecutive daily bear bars or stronger 1h bars below 5650, bulls remain in control. If bears somehow manage to print a bigger engulfing bear bar on the daily chart, especially if it closes below 5600, that would probably be enough to make many more bulls exiting their longs. Interesting week ahead of us. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. → Last Sunday we traded 5652 and now we are at 5661. 9 points off. I do think that was a perfect outlook. short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs. medium-long term: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Big ABC correction is pure speculation. Don’t bet on it. I do think the climactic bull rally is over and market is going sideways before the next bigger breakout. Only above 5750 can bulls dream about a breakout above the big bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
/NQ Bullish Looking at the 4 hr /NQ I see a very Bullish pattern regardless of the anticipated events. Technically speaking you can see that big Inverse Head & Shoulders and a falling wedge on the potential "right shoulder" which serves as more confirmation of the bullish incoming trend. My plan is to watch the market on Tuesday and see what happens at mkt open and get in on the dip and HOLD till the inverse head & shoulders fully forms. My Target prices are as listed on the chart. My ultimate goal with every bullish confirmation is to have 10 contracts before exiting the position. Let's see what happens?!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Gus-On
GOLD accumulates with an overall upward trendOANDA:XAUUSD decreased again, after yesterday's recovery and the market in general is still accumulating with an upward trend both fundamentally and technically. At the Asian session on August 30, as of the time this article was completed, gold was trading at about 2,513USD/oz, a decrease equivalent to more than 7 dollars on the day and about 0.31%. Investors are awaiting data on US PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. At 19:30 Hanoi time today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for July will be published, which may provide further assessment of the pace of rate cuts in September, including the pace of the upcoming rate cut cycle. Surveys show the US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2% monthly in July, after rising 0.1% in June. The US PCE price index is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.6% in July, following a 2.5% increase in June. In terms of core data, the survey shows that the US core PCE price index in July is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month, after increasing 0.2% in June; increased at an annual rate of 2.7%, compared with a 2.6% increase the previous month. As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers. From a technical perspective, the technical structure has not changed throughout the past week and readers can review this week's most recent publications below. The target for the week remains unchanged for gold to surpass its all-time high of $2,531 and refresh its new all-time target of $2,544. During the day, the technical prospect of gold price increase will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2551 - 2549⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2555 →Take Profit 1 2544 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2539 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GC GOLD Buy BOXBeen a while since posting my thoughts here, I have been working on something that is GOLD. Supply and Demand can often be overlooked. Trading can often be over complicated. Back up and study the basics. Supply and demand characteristics of the market are the most rudimentary but often the best way to creaete a system that brings forth consistent gains. How many traders are actually profitable. Find a system that works for you it could start with a simple supply and demand type strategy. Here we have price reacted perfectly off of the supply zone, (Yes I took that short position from the top and have the screen shot to prove it just ask if you want to see it). Now will we enter a demand zone and reverse. My plan is to simply wait, I took my profits and now I just wait until my alerts are hit and my criteria is met to go the other direction. What will you do? Leave it in the comments I am happy to be back posting and look forward to more!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Verum0
2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bulls bought the big after hour dip yesterday and had a big rally but damn that was some big and fast selling in the last 2 hours of the US session. What did we learn today? Shift into Dax and DJI, since they just melted again and new ATH on both (dax xetra, not futures though) and rest of the markets made lower highs and lower lows. Still absolutely neutral imo but if bears get follow through tomorrow, the highs are probably in for this bull leg. dax futures comment: 3 clearn pushes up to a new xetra ath and volume is picking up again. Time for a reversal. Can you short this yet? I think so but stop has to be 19050ish and we are still above many bull trend lines. If you want higher probability, wait for bears to make lower lows again. Absolute ripper of a bull leg since early August and given the atrocious volume, had to be a short squeeze. I expect the next 2000 points will be made to the downside over the next 10 weeks. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels : 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls were relentlessly buying this but now with a new ath and all the remaining bear stops hit, market is free to do whatever. Bulls could do a blow-off top 19100/19200 before strongly reversing but i favor a retest of 19000 tomorrow before sideways to down movement. Bulls want to stay above 18800 as long as possible. Invalidation is below 18800. bear case: Bears want to trap as many late bulls as possible but before more bears come around and more bulls begin to take profits, we would need to start breaking bull trend lines and producing consecutive bear bars on higher time frames. The daily chart tells you everything you need to know as a bear right now. Below 18800 bears start to have some arguments but as of now, expect BTFD to continue until it has clearly stopped. Invalidation is above 18800. short term: If you get bullish at a new ath, no one can help you. Trend is your friend and all that but betting on another leg up is gambling at best. Scalp long if the momentum is there but get out early. This can and probably will turn soon. Absolutely neutral as of now and only touching it if one side is clearly in control. Caught a 60 point drop today, very happy with that. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nope but long term shorts are looking juicy. trade of the day: Buying the open was again very profitable. Long above bar 29 was very reasonable. Shorting below bar 72 was also a good trade, one which I took.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - News again which let the market rip for 285 ticks but above 67.7 we saw bigger profit taking and a decent pullback to the 30m ema. Kinda in the middle of the range and I am not trading there. Also no opinion on where to go next. Around 77 I favor bears to get back down again and around 74 I favor the bulls. Trading range price action. comment : Bulls had the news on their side today and strongly reversed from 74 for almost 3$. I expect another test of 77 tomorrow and there market decides if it wants to break above the weekly high 77.59 or trade back down to 74. Can also very well close exactly at the mid point 75.5. Neutral around 75-76, bearish near 77 and bullish around 74. Fade the extremes as long as market is making lower highs and higher lows. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 74 - 77 bull case: Bulls got near the bear trend line again and found more sellers than buyers. They want at least a retest of 77 and poke the trend line. Since no side has any control for many weeks now, I don’t expect this to change tomorrow. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears stepped aside after the news release but come through near the bear trend line. They defended it and want to keep this below 77 / 77.59. 76 is a bad short, so the closer to 77 they can get, the better the math. Invalidation is above 76.2. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 76.2 for retest of 77 and then wanting to fade the extremes as mentioned in the comment. medium-long term : We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long bar 7 or 8. Very strong bull bars after a climactic bear bar 7 which made a decent double bottom with bar 8 from Wednesday.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Positive technical position, GOLD will pay attention to US PCEFinancial markets in general are closely watching key inflation data from the world's largest economy for clues about the scale of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September. PCE data by The US release on Friday will also be the main data focus this week. With an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September almost certain, attention also turns to the pace of future adjustments, and how intense they will be. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 65.5% chance of the US cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a 34.5% chance of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Investors are now awaiting US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday. If Friday's PCE data is lower than expected, it could fuel expectations of a more dovish Fed, creating bullish potential for gold. And even if the PCE is higher than expected, it won't change the outlook for a Fed rate cut in September, so a higher-than-expected increase in PCE would only be temporary. limit the upward momentum of gold prices, or create short-term corrections that do not fundamentally affect the main uptrend. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold remains stable with near-term bullish conditions despite a sudden short-term correction yesterday that did not affect the technical uptrend. The structure has not changed with an uptrend in both the short, medium and long term with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The fact that gold remains above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension is a positive factor for the bullish price target noticed by readers in the weekly publication at 2,531 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,544 USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit more room for price increases. As long as gold remains within the price channel, declines should only be considered a short-term correction and a short-term buying opportunity. During the day, the technical prospect of gold price increase will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2521 - 2519⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2525 →Take Profit 1 2514 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2509 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - The triangle broke above but bears sold it hard for a retest of the minor bull trend line at 2530. We are now in a nested wedge and the bigger but broader bull channel. Market is mostly moving sideways though. Expecting for the wedge to break tomorrow and it could go either way. gold comment: Globex session sold off for 24 points before EU opened. Market went mostly sideways afterwards but stayed below the 1h ema. I consider the triangle broken since we made a higher high again but it does not matter. Now its an ascending triangle and you trade them the same. Advice? Wait for the breakout and do not lose money in trading ranges unless you are super profitable trading them. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2500 - 2570 bull case: Bulls bought the bull trend line and kept it above 2530, which is still max bullishness. No more reading into this trading range at the highs. BTFD is going strong, don’t look for shorts. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Bears trying but failing. Best they can hope for is the market to continue to go sideways until it’s more neutral. Invalidation is above 2570. short term: Neutral between 2530-2570, bullish above and bearish below. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged for many months. Will do on update next weekend. current swing trade : None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 9 + 13 but only for a scalp. If you weren’t short during Globex, best not to trade afterwards.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Some decent selling today but tis just a dent compared to the bull rally from the previous 3 weeks. Nvidia numbers were in line but the buyback should have been good enough for more euphoria and instead nasdaq puked for 200 points. I do think bears are favored tomorrow but will need follow through below 19200 on nasdaq. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Market continues inside the bull flag and the longer it goes on the more neutral market becomes. Nvidia numbers were in line but market puked 200 points, despite the 50b buyback. Since it recovered most of it as of now, I think we have to wait for tomorrow’s US session for a clear direction but I do think bears chances are very good that we have seen the lower high at 20025 and we go lower from here. I want confirmation below 19200 tomorrow. If bulls can get above 19500 again, they are favored for 19600 or higher again. current market cycle: Bull flag inside the bigger trading range key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case : Bulls want a new ath but Nvidia earnings did not help their case. Still a bull flag after the insane reversal. I wait for tomorrow’s price action. Bulls need to get above 19500 for more upside. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears hope for armageddon. They need to keep this below 19500 to keep their chances of more downside decent. Getting short between 19350 - 19500 is risky but can work. Validation for more downside is a 1h close below 19200. If bears manage that, we could have a bloody day tomorrow. Invalidation is above 19500. short term: Neutral. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling the open was pretty decent I guess. There was no reason to exit until we hit 19400 and after that, market just went sideways.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD is supported, Powell is dovish, geopolitics is complicatedWith the impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish comments, the USD continued to be less attractive and gold returned to closing weekly above the original price of 2,500 USD, opening up a positive outlook for the following week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that it is time to adjust policy, signaling that an interest rate cut is imminent. This can be considered the strongest signal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's interest rate cut. And of course that is enough for gold to continue to increase in price. Quoting Powell: "The time to adjust policy has come. Confidence that inflation is heading towards 2% has increased. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in the labor market. We will do so." everything possible to support the labor market and get there." New geopolitical point According to Israeli media reports, an Israeli air force control tower on Mount Melon in northern Israel was attacked by Hezbollah missiles, with one missile fired directly at the facility. Israel has carried out a series of attacks in southern Lebanon in recent times. However, hopes for an agreement faded when Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas blamed each other and failed to reach an agreement after more than 10 months of war in the Gaza Strip. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset, and ongoing global instability has prompted investors to turn to gold to seek protection from market risks and fluctuations. As these tensions continue to increase, gold prices will receive even more support. Main basic focus Overall, the gold market is currently fully supported fundamentally, with the USD having a weaker future as the Fed's interest rate cut time approaches, and the cutting cycle will last longer. not ending soon or just a short-term adjustment. On the other hand, geopolitical developments are more complicated with prolonged wars in Ukraine - Russia and the Gaza Strip,... is also a very important factor promoting safe haven psychology, gold is known as a valuable asset. The most effective communication shelter. Overall, in a simpler way, in the long run, gold will continue to have a basic upward trend, even when the geopolitical conflict cools down, which will only create short-term profit taking. In the coming time, the Chinese Central Bank will likely reduce the amount of physical gold purchases in the second half of the year and will focus more on gold ETF purchases, and this should be considered a solid support move when China China is the world's leading gold user and hoarder along with India. Data focus this week The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data next Friday, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. Higher than expected data could be seen as a supportive move for the USD in the short term, while lower or equal data is expected to continue to support gold prices higher into the end of next week. Additionally, US GDP data on Thursday could also bring some volatility to the market. The economic calendar needs attention this week Monday: US durable goods orders Tuesday: US consumer confidence Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, US second-quarter preliminary GDP Friday: US PCE index Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continued to close above the $2,500 raw price after receiving support and a post-corrective recovery from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the $2,484 technical level acting as the closest support for short-term uptrend. The overall chart still shows that gold has all the technical conditions for an uptrend in the long, medium and short term with the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel and medium-term support from the EMA21 along with the trend. short-term from the price channel. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, with the weekly close above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, next week's uptrend will be directed towards $2,531 in the short term and more than 2,544USD. The level of 2,544USD will still be the target for price increases in the near future. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that there is still technical room for price increases to be achieved. the above mentioned goals. In the coming time, the uptrend of gold will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2552 →Take Profit 1 2541 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2536 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2489 →Take Profit 1 2500 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2505
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has corrections near record highs, main trendAfter Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a dovish signal, the market has finished pricing in an interest rate cut in September. At the same time, gold continues to be supported by safe-haven demand Due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, gold prices are making certain adjustments near record highs. Last Friday, Mr. Powell supported the impending interest rate cut, saying that the continued cooling of the job market would not be positive and this is notable support that is easy to see. for gold in the current situation. Gold is a notable example where geopolitical risk aversion increases investor demand for safe-haven assets. • Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah fired rockets at each other over the weekend in one of the biggest border clashes in more than 10 months. Hezbollah fired hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel early Sunday morning, and the Israeli military said to prevent a larger attack, it used about 100 warplanes to attack. Lebanon. Top US generals said on Monday that the short-term risk of a wider war in the Middle East had diminished following a firefight between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, according to the latest news at Reuters. • On Monday morning, explosions occurred in many places across Ukraine. Ukraine's military has warned of a large-scale Russian missile and drone attack, following a wave of early morning drone attacks. The Ukrainian military said 11 Russian TU-95 strategic bombers were flying in the air and confirmed they had launched multiple missiles. The Kyiv Post said Russia launched the largest missile attack since the Russia-Ukraine war, and thousands of people in Kiev poured into the metro station. Although gold has adjusted downward, the basic factors still show that the upward trend in prices will continue to dominate the gold market and the basic trend in the near future. With support from policy, interest rate directions as well as geopolitical risks continue to appear new. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is experiencing bearish corrections during the Asian session today, Tuesday August 27 but the technical trend remains unchanged with conditions tilted strongly towards a bullish outlook. In the short term, as long as gold remains above the original price of $2,500 and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it still has bullish prospects with a short-term target of $2,531 and more to the $2,544 level. However, in case the 0.786% Fibonacci level is broken below, the impact of the technical correction could go a little deeper with a target drop to $2,484 in the short term. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged and notable levels are listed as follows. Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2552 →Take Profit 1 2541 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2536 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2489 →Take Profit 1 2500 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2505
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
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