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GOLD could still rally, even if PCE is higher than expectedThe weakening US Dollar, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and geopolitical developments will still be the main driving forces driving gold prices to increase in the near future fundamentally. Last Friday, Mr. Powell said “it is time to adjust policy,” sending a strong signal about cutting interest rates. Rising tensions in the Middle East are also creating momentum for gold prices to recover. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated over the weekend and concerns that the conflict could widen will be a factor in boosting gold prices. On Tuesday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the United States believes Iran is “ready” to take retaliatory actions against Israel, so the United States has increased its military deployment. in the area. The US message to Iran is not to retaliate against Israel and there is no reason to escalate the situation or provoke a regional war, but if Iran attacks Israel, the US is ready to defend Israel. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders see a 65.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September and about a 34.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut. The market is now awaiting the release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the key inflation report and the Fed's preferred inflation measure, on Friday. A surprise higher-than-expected inflation data could impact Fed policy expectations, but the Fed will certainly cut interest rates in September and could cut rates again this year. . Therefore, even if data shows a return of inflation, it will not be considered a pressure on gold, and may be an opportunity for a short-term correction in gold prices, opening up opportunities for those who wait buy. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is correcting gently in early Asia today (Wednesday, August 28) to 2,517USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of about 0.29% as of the time of writing. However, the technical structure does not have any changes with the tendency to increase both the value in the short term and on average over a number of periods. In the short term, the gold zone remains above the 0.786% Fibobacci extension level, it still develops a bullish outlook towards the target of interest when you read the weekly output at 2,531USD in the short term, more Another 2,544 USD. There aren't any negative signs for gold prices and the intraday bullish trend will be noticed by the following notable devices. Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2561 - 2559⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2565 →Take Profit 1 2554 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2549 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2478 →Take Profit 1 2489 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2494
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
NVDA New ATH Inbound Technical reasons for a move to the upside are as follows 1 - 1 Fib Extension gives us $155 TR Pocket pull gives us $154 - $157 for more confluence, and finally we have Pivots at $152. All aligning in the same region I expect price to eventually gravitate to the upside . Not necessarily all on earnings day but never say never . Market structure is also in a bullish uptrend HTF. With that in mind we have these strong technicals/confluence to expect all time highs to be taken out $140.76.*ATH come Earnings Release. I dont advocate blindly longing up here though as the last opportunity to long was back in July but if you trade the INDEX Futures then you can use this as a potential compass into taking a Long * NQ for example . I dont look at Fundamentals but it was brought to my attention that the CEO has been selling vast amounts of stock which is publicly displayed if you care to investigate . So its possible that he knows something that we dont and maybe the results that are announced tomorrow dont meet expectations . if thats the case then of course be prepared for a move to the downside before continuation to the upside but bear in mind that NVDA have beaten expectations 4 X previously and have lucrative partnerships in the tech space and AI is still in its infancy so anything can happen . I remain bullish on the sector and NVDA especially Results are announced after market close Wed 29 Share and Like to support my work
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by SJTRADESFUTURES
2
2024-08-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Yeah I spare you your time. Markets have no idea where to go right now but I think Nvidia earnings can move it for good. Absolutely no opinion on those earnings and how market will react. I don’t like to gamble on such things. sp500 e-mini futures comment: I won’t conjure much words today for a market inside a 50 point triangle. Clear support and resistance visible. Either scalp it to both sides or wait for the breakout. No opinion on which side the breakout will happen. Both sides have arguments and I won’t try to guess it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5600 - 5670 bull case: Bulls want to get above 5670 and to make the bears give up so they can print a new ath or at least 5700 again. I do think many bulls will give up below 5550 but that’s far away for now. Currently no more magic to it. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears coming through with selling spikes rather than consecutive bear bars or sustained selling. I think many stops will be around 5675-5680 and market would probably print 5700 fast then. If Nvidia misses and market pukes, below 5580 I will heavily favor the bears to reverse the madness. Invalidation is above 5675. short term: Neutral as it gets. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap at the open anywhere below 5619. Second best was any long around 5628 since market is trying hard to show you this is support for now. Selling 5649 was also decent. Trading range with clear support and resistance. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Morning and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Breakout above happened as written in my weekly update. Only looking for longs now. Want 79 and then 80 before I expect a more complex pullback. quote from my weekly update: short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. comment : Bulls just continued on Monday and my 75.1 target was easily passed through. That trade was good for 200+, hope you made some. We are now at a minor bear trend line around 77.6 and I’d be surprised if we can just melt through that as well. The 1h ema was not touched once since Thursday’s US session. Very strong move by the bulls and decent chances we see 79 this morning. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 75 - 79 bull case: Bulls did what I expected in my weekly outlook and their next targets above are 79 and then 80. I do think 80 can happen today or tomorrow. If bulls can break above current August high 78.99, bears will probably step aside enough for 80 to come fast. Invalidation is below 76. bear case: Bears did not want to fight this after their leg down and market move’s freely higher without any fight. News weren’t on their side either yesterday. Where could we expect a bigger pullback? 78 is a big maybe. 79/80 is where I expect it more but do not look for any fades until bears closed a bear below the 1h ema. You would be trying to short a strong bull trend and that’s mostly gambling. Invalidation is above 78. short term: Bullish for 78 and most likely 79/80 as long as we stay above the 1h 20ema. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Longing the breakout above 75.1 as I wrote in my weekly update. Was good for 200+.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-08-26 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Morning and I hope you are well. No update yesterday after hours since I was so sick I just had to sleep. That was the first miss since almost a year ago or 202 publishes if you will. Update would not have been any different since Globex did not move anything much. tl;dr Indexes - Most markets moved sideways so I will not pretend there is much value to extract out of the price action. We will have a bigger breakout soon and I have absolutely no idea to which side since I am not a fortune teller or a social media jack who posts pictures with a Lambo. They seem to be very sure of every move the market makes. You decide which is more reasonable. dax futures comment: Market is staying above 18600 but 18700 is resistance. Will probably see a breakout today or tomorrow. No deeper meaning in this sideways chop. I lean slightly bearish to get below 18600 again. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls are too weak to push above 18700 but keeping it above 18600 makes the market completely neutral. Bulls want to stay inside the bull channel which leads to 19000. Not much more to it. Play the range. Invalidation is below 18600. bear case: Bears also too weak to get below 18600 and currently the 1h 20ema is big support. Bears need a strong close below 18600 to have any argument on their side. Invalidation is above 18720. short term: Overall more bullish than bearish but the 100 point range is as neutral as it gets. I scalp and wait for the breakout. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Buying near 18600 since it was support many many times.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
WTI is less affected by conflictAs tensions in the Middle East continue to emerge, oil prices may continue to be supported by short-term geopolitical risks. However, this sudden impact is gradually easing. Next, crude oil traders should still pay attention to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision and further developments in the Middle East. Ceasefire talks in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian militia Hamas went ahead as scheduled on Sunday, showing relative calm after the exchange of fire. Israel eased security restrictions in the country on Sunday evening, hours after previously declaring a state of emergency and closing the main airport. Although the Middle East supplies about a third of the world's crude oil, oil market fundamentals have not been significantly affected by this conflict. Mainly for crude oil traders, they will still need to pay attention to the principle of supply and demand in the market "usually regulated by OPEC", and monetary policies related to USD when WTI crude oil is traded. priced in USD. Geopolitical risks and expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next month combined to push WTI crude oil prices to a recovery late last week. In a speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave the clearest signal yet that the job of containing inflation is complete, saying “the time has come for change.” policy", reinforcing market expectations of a possible interest rate cut next month. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL is still limited by pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and is still in a falling price channel. Although WTI crude oil has recovered significantly, current technical conditions are still more bearish than bullish, with a new bearish cycle possibly being ushered in as it falls. below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, and the latter target is 72.32 in the short term and above that is 71.68SUSD. Meanwhile, for WTI crude oil to have enough bullish conditions, it would at least need to break above the technical level that acts as horizontal resistance at 77.58USD confluence with the upper edge of the price channel, then the short-term target is around 78.11USD and more than 79.62USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is showing signs of bending after recovering to the 50% level and this should be seen as a signal that there is still further downside ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil is more bearish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 74.71 – 72.32SUSD Resistance: 75.66 – 76.59 – 77.58USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Bears answered last weeks question on Monday but bulls kept the market two sided and bears gave up at the double bottom below 72. Bulls are creating decent bull bars again and last time they did this we went above 78. Above 75 odds favor the bulls for more upside to at least 77 but we are still low enough for bears to come around and test 72 again. Leaning bullish if market stays above 74. Quote from last week: comment : Bull and bear legs alike get shorter, market is contracting further. Triangle is valid since 2022. We are in the last weeks of it. If we get a huge event where we see Oil prices skyrocketing over the next 3-4 months, you read it here first. Play the range is the name of the game. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls printed a nice double bottom around 71 and are on their way up again. They want at least 77.5 and test the minor bear trend line starting from 2024-07-18. The last two reversal from prices below 72 both went without any pullback on the daily chart so I expect this one to just go up as well. No side is currently fighting the other too much. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears got their early move below 74 and just went for 72 again. No bigger fight for 72 so bulls are doing the reversal again. There is a low chance that bears come around and want to keep it below the daily ema at 75 but i doubt it. If they do, best they can hope for is a test of 71.5 again. Above 75.1 I expect an easy and fast trade up to at least 77. Invalidation is above 75.1. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Again. What can you do. → Last Sunday we traded 75.54 and now we are at 74.83. Low of the week was 71.47 and my target was 71/72. Hope you made some. short term: Bullish above 75.1, bearish below 74 for retest of 72 or lower. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 70 and 80. No more updates until market makes higher highs or lower lows again. current swing trade: None chart update: None
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
1
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bulls bought the first pullback and I expect bears to try again. Market went sideways which shows strength by the bulls to keep it above 2500. Next week will be important because so far the highest monthly close was 2472 and a monthly close above 2500 would confirm the breakout again. Bears need consecutive bear bars below 2500 and bulls a daily close above 2550. Neutral going into next week. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got a new ath but the highest monthly close so far was 2473 and there is no reason to expect a huge breakout above 2550 with follow through. If it happens, hopp along but odds favor the bears for another reversal like so many times in the last 4 months. No matter how you interpret the patterns on the chart, all favor a reversal and betting on a breakout after 4 months of trading range price action is a losing strategy in the long run. I am neutral and wait for bears to show strength but will join the bulls on a strong breakout above 2550. comment : Did we learn anything from a sideways week? We have a bullish pattern and a technical textbook pullback a bit above the ema. Bulls bought it and that is bullish. But only a break above 2570 is confirmation. Resistance is always that until it breaks, no matter how strong you think the trend is/looks/feels and this trend inside a 5 month trading range is not strong so far. Bulls are trying the breakout and the monthly close will be the most important for them. If they manage their first close above 2500, it would be a confirmation and buy signal going into September. What could be a potential target above? Since the trading range was mostly between 2300 - 2500ish, we can do a measured move up and that would bring us to the ballpark around 2700. current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged key levels: 2400 - 2550 bull case: Bulls raised their odds of this breakout being real last week. Next week is their do or die moment for this. It’s either break above 2550 and get a daily close above or fail again and trade back down to the lower bull wedge or even 2300. I do think 2540-2570 is a dead zone for trading long. If we get near 2520-2530 I consider buying but not above. Odds currently favor the bulls slightly. Invalidation is below 2500. bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. If you are short Gold right now, don’t come to me hoping for bear porn. I’m long past that phase in Gold. Do I still think this is overvalued and can crash below 2000 again? Bet. Will this save your underwater shorts? Hell naw. Get out now or latest at 2571. Invalidation is above 2571. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2550. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470. → Last Sunday we traded 2537 and now we are at 2546. Bulls got above 2550 but big rejections only. Neutral outlook was perfect since we closed 9 points above last week. short term: Exactly the same as last week. Bears had a pullback and bulls bought it. Inherently bullish but only if bulls can break above 2570. Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2570. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None. chart update: Added bull wedge trend line and measured move target #1.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202435 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 53 points to a new ath is a small spike at this point. Whenever a market is this close to an obvious magnet, it’s reasonable to assume that it will get there. Will it be a big difference if the high stays below 5700 or goes above 5721? Not really. You simply can not short this and put your stop a tick above the previous ath. Bulls are in control and until bears print consecutive bear bars below 5600, it stays that way. Quote from last week: comment : Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. comment : Bears produced the first bigger bear bar after almost 10% in 10 bars. It was also the first pullback (price goes below the previous bar low) in this bull trend inside the bigger trading range. As I wrote for dax, I can not be anything but neutral going into next week since we are at previous resistance after a very climactic move up. Bulls want a new ath and bears to keep it a lower high. Volume is picking up again and bears build some decent selling pressure on Thursday + Friday. On the 4h chart you can see 5 legs up without much of pullbacks. Will find out next week how many bulls are interested in buying above 5600. current market cycle: Bull trend inside bigger trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: Bulls closed the bear gap and are free to print a new ath. Bears are not doing enough to make more bulls take profits, so naturally they keep on buying any small dip and pushing it higher. Technically we have two bull trend lines pointing to higher targets above 5721 with one even going to 5900-6000. Can this happen? For sure. After this climactic down than even more climactic up, everything is possible. Is it likely? No. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears see it as a big trading range and we are at the highs again. They start scaling into shorts above 5600. They know the market is overdue for a bigger pullback again and they will add higher, even if we print a new ath. If they can keep this a lower high and print below 5600, I do think we could see more bulls covering their longs. For now bears can mostly hope for a sideways market and stopping the advance. On the monthly chart bears produced a decent doji in July and they want this months bar closing near 5500 to not generate a good buying signal for September. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. → Last Sunday we traded 5578 and now we are at 5652. 5600 was no bigger resistance. Bulls printed a green week but bears came around and starting making the market more two sided again. short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. I don’t think bears want July to close above 5600. medium-long term : Can’t be too bearish after the reversal but same as dax again. Even if we do a new ath, I expect at least 5200 to be hit again this year but probably 5000. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed bear gap and added the possible 5 wave series and a potential bigger two legged correction but that is pure speculation as of now.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [26 August - 30 August]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase quite strongly from 2,485 USD/oz to 2,531 USD/oz. After that, the gold price dropped to 2,470 USD/oz, then increased to 2,518 USD/oz and closed at 2,512 USD/oz. Gold prices continued to rise sharply this week because FED Chairman Powell signaled his readiness to cut interest rates in the upcoming meetings at the Jackson Hole Conference. Mr. Powell said that it is time for interest rates to be adjusted downward to support economic recovery. Although Mr. Powell did not specify a specific timeline or scale of interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, he emphasized that FED officials are laying the foundation for looser monetary policy. In the context that the FED will certainly cut interest rates in the upcoming meeting, many experts believe that short-term gold prices may continue to increase even higher. However, it may be difficult for gold prices to avoid times when investors take profits, causing gold prices to have downward corrections. Next week, the gold market will focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) for July; GDP in the second quarter; Consumer confidence... In particular, PCE is expected to increase only 0.2%; GDP remains at 2.8% as initially forecast. If as predicted, these data will not have much impact on gold prices next week. 📌Technically, technical indicators are still showing an upward trend in gold prices in the short term. Accordingly, the important support level for gold prices next week is at 2,470 USD/oz. Meanwhile, if it exceeds 2,530 USD/oz, next week's gold price will widen its path towards the 2,590-2,600 USD/oz range. The trading plan for next week will be to sell around the 2590 mark and buy if the price drops to 2442. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.470USD Resistance: 2.600 – 2.530USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2441 - 2443⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2437
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered after adjustmentOANDA:XAUUSD spot has adjusted down below the original price mark of 2,500SUSD and is trying to recover. This trading day, investors will have new information from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, which is expected to cause a major fluctuation in the gold market. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday showed that the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of August 17 was higher than expected and previous figures. . Data from S&P Global showed business activity remained steady even as US manufacturing activity fell for a second straight month. US manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 again in August; Services PMI increased to 55.2, exceeding expectations. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield in particular rising 6.5 basis points to 3.865%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the USD against six other currencies, rose and profit-taking could be the main reason gold prices fell below $2,500/ounce ahead of Trump's speech. Powell. Previously, the minutes of the final meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday unexpectedly showed that the "vast majority" of FOMC participants supported easing policy at the September meeting. if the data matches expectations. The minutes show that policymakers are increasingly convinced that inflation risks are tilted to the downside, while risks to achieving maximum employment have increased. The "Jackson Hole Symposium", the annual meeting of global central banks, will be held starting Friday and the market focus will shift to the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech Jerome Powell at today's meeting (Surday). Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole is expected to lay the foundation for monetary policy direction for the remainder of 2024. Today (Friday), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole. Traders need to pay close attention to this event, because it will bring much stronger volatility. In a context where the market is unpredictable and increases and decreases of 2-3% are no longer strange or rare, traders need to be prepared for scenarios of price movements of 2-3% in the short term. short time. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has corrected below its original price of $2,500, the downside momentum has been limited and recovered from the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension above $2,484, continuing support from the support level of 2,484USD towards a short-term increase at 2,500USD. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still tends to increase in the short term, while the long-term trend is fixed by the price channel and medium-term support from EMA21. In the immediate future, the target will be 2,500 – 2,503 USD, the area of ​​​​the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. Once gold breaks the 0.786% Fibonacci level it will continue to qualify for a bullish outlook with the next target after that at around $2,531, more so than $2,544. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains unchanged with the main trend being bullish and notable points are listed as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503 – 2,510USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2502 - 2500⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2506 →Take Profit 1 2495 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2490 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2461 - 2463⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2457 →Take Profit 1 2468 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2473
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
4
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong day by the bears for most markets and on higher volume too. After climactic moves, many traders keep tight stops and won’t let the market run too much against them because they want to secure their profits. Does that mean the market is reversing? Probably not. But deep pullbacks are always possible. In trading rangs the daily 20ema and the 50% (midpoint of the range) are always magnets, so always mark them on your chart. For tomorrow I expect more volatility since we have BOJ Ueda + FED JPOW speaking. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Huge day for the bears by closing below 5600. I do think it would be fitting if we close the week with a huge bear reversal candle below 5550 or even 5500. Can we get there? Unlikely but not impossible. Could we also close above 5721? You bet. No one knows where we are going because market has moved in such extremes the past two weeks, that absolutely everything is possible tomorrow. Odds still somewhat favor the bulls to close the week above 5600 but just slightly. Daily ema is around 5500 and that are two good reasons for market to test that price. Anything above 5640 would surprise me tbh. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5500 -5670 bull case: Bulls tried to fight it today but the down moves saw a big increase in volume and bulls could not keep the market above 5600. They need to stay above this price or risk much more downside because I do think many stops will be around 5580-5595 tomorrow. Their first target is a 15m bar close above the ema and then the 1h ema to turn the market neutral again. 50% pullback from today is 5625 and that is also a magnet for tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: Bears surprised me today because the strength of the selling was not expected. Market grinded higher first but since the US open we just saw big selling coming through and every rip was sold. If bears do not keep the momentum going tomorrow, they risk another reversal and potentially another meltup to a new ath but that will strongly depend on Jpow and Ueda and how the market will interpret their speeches. Can you forecast this? Don’t bother. Mark key levels on your chart and hop along on the breakout tomorrow. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: 5600 is neutral and I wait. Bears need follow through selling below 5580 and bulls a strong reversal. Above 5625 I will consider longs. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Sell US open. No reason not to and no reason to exit until 5600 where market stalled too much.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-08-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Bears created a pullback but could not even touch 2500. It’s a little less bullish as of now because the bull trend line broke but market is still above 2500 and the daily 20ema so odds favor another the bulls. If bears create follow through below 2500, I turn bearish for 2450 or lower. comment: Neutral again at 2520 because we are right above the bull trend line from early August and near 2500, which is huge support for now. Odds favor the bulls to test the upper bear trend line around 2540 again. If bears manage to go into the weekend below 2500, this bull leg is most likely over again and we will test back to 2450 or lower. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2500 - 2570 bull case: Bulls still see this above 2500 and inside a trading range at the highs. They are trading above the daily ema and the bull trend line is still valid. I do think the bears will not fight them for 2500 on the first try, so odds favor the bulls to stay inside the current expanding triangle and test back to the upper trend line around 2540. A weekly close above 2540 would be max bullish. Invalidation is below 2490. bear case: Bears finally produced more selling pressure and closed at the lows. Whenever bears printed consecutive bear bars above 2500 over the past 4 months, market was not able to hold above and sold off again. Bears expecting this time to be the same, despite the new ath. They want a reversal to 2400 and their target for tomorrow is a close below 2500. Invalidation is above 2550. short term: Neutral between 2500-2520, bullish above and bearish below. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling below bar 8 was decent. Stop had to be above bar 3. Market held below the 1h ema and there was decent selling pressure before.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD corrects, accumulates around 2,500 USD, still positiveOANDA:XAUUSD adjusted slightly downward during the early Asian trading session on August 22, maintaining price activity around the original price of 2,500USD. But overall, the overall picture still shows that gold is fully supported and the price drops are only corrective after a long period of price increases. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting released Wednesday showed policymakers were inclined to cut interest rates in September, and some participants believed the conditions for a rate cut had been set. Available in July. “Some believe that recent developments in inflation and rising unemployment support a 25 basis point reduction in the policy rate target range at the meeting,” the meeting minutes said. or they may support such a decision. If data continue to be in line with expectations, further policy easing at the next meeting may be appropriate.” The current U.S. unemployment rate is higher than the 4% unemployment rate that Federal Reserve officials predicted this year in their updated economic forecast in June. It is also higher than the unemployment rate. 4.2% that Fed policymakers expect by the end of next year. Additionally, revised nonfarm payrolls data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the number of people employed in the United States over the past year through March was initially revised down to 818,000, here This is the largest downward adjustment since 2009. This trading day, traders will need to focus on US economic data, with initial jobless claims, PMI data from S&P Global and US housing data. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US is expected to increase to 230,000 in the week of August 17, up from 227,000 the previous week. Business activity data published by S&P Global shows that the preliminary value of the US services PMI in August will decrease slightly from 55 to 54. The preliminary value of manufacturing PMI in August is expected to remain unchanged. changed at 49.6. In addition, US existing home sales in July are expected to increase from 3.89 million units to 3.93 million units. However, all macro focus will be on tomorrow's event, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold continues to adjust cumulatively around the original price of 2,500 USD, in general the short, medium and long-term trends remain unchanged with an overall uptrend. On the other hand, gold is also maintaining above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level and this is considered a positive signal for gold to continue towards its next short-term targets of around 2,531USD in the short term and beyond. target level 2,544USD. Even in the event that gold is sold below the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will still receive support from the previously broken era high of $2,484. During the day, the trend of gold prices did not change with an uptrend and the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for growth. Notable technical levels for the intraday uptrend are listed below. Support: 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2553 - 2551⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2557 →Take Profit 1 2546 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2541 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2468 - 2470⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2464 →Take Profit 1 2475 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2480
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
BTC USD Daily trades// scalp setup long# hello TRADERS , hope you’re doing well This our scalp setup for today no further analyses of the entry since this position is lower-timeframe Based ######### POSITION SETUP ######## recommended leverage: X5 ENTRY POINT :60374 SL:59666 TP:61870 ### Not financial advice disclaimer ### #You can use leverage at your own responsability and according to your risk management strategy ## remember to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research. always, trade with caution ## Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis #Make sure you follow and activate the notification to catch the move instantly If you have any questions, or any Coin to analyse you can write them in the comments section below. #####We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC) revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the functioning of the most powerful HIGH frequency trading algorithms very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps straight to the target Join US!! ********* WAKE-UP NEO =) follow the white rabbit********
Long
by LEETRADERS
2024-08-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - All green, all good. Bulls want more climactic buying but have to settle with grinding it up. Bears are not building enough selling pressure to print consecutive bigger bear bars on higher time frames. Only look for longs until that changes. As of now, there is no reason not to expect much higher prices and new ath. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Much two sided trading today but bulls closed it green and they are making higher highs and higher lows. We are close to 20000 and will most likely hit it tomorrow. Market is not stopping so looking for shorts is a bad strategy right now for most traders. Bears built decent selling pressure today but to no avail. Market refuses to go lower as of now. Above 20000 I don’t think bulls have any resistance until 20200 but that is weak resistance at best so it’s not totally out of the question that we will just continue in an almost straight line to 21000. For bears there is nothing but pain right now. They would need a strong 1h close below 19700 for a start and many stops would probably be below 19450-19500. current market cycle: Bull trend in bigger trading range key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls only see a 15% up move from the lows and absolutely no reason to exit longs anywhere. They want to dance while the music is playing. Buying is becoming climactic and this increases the odds of a pullback. 20000 is a big round number and we could see the start of some profit taking there but for now I have my doubts. Invalidation is below 19500. bear case: Bears are not doing much. They tried multiple times today to keep the market from advancing too much and at least they kept it below 20000 but as long as they are not even touching the 4h 20ema, they have to content with scalps and taking quick profits. The best bears can hope for is to keep it below 20000 but the odds of that are low. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Can’t be anything but bullish above 19700. Below I turn more neutral medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Between the orange lines was decent two sided trading but many many weird spikes and difficult trades to take. Buying 19800 was probably the best today.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
#BTCUSDT.P Daily trades//setup 1/5RR LONG X3 LEVERAGE# hello TRADERS , hope you’re doing well This our TRADE setup for today no further analyses of the entry since this position is lower-timeframe Based ######### POSITION SETUP ######## recommended leverage: X3 ENTRY POINT :58822 SL: 57730 TP:64500 ### Not financial advice disclaimer ### #You can use leverage at your own responsability and according to your risk management strategy ## remember to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research. always, trade with caution ## Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis #Make sure you follow and activate the notification to catch the move instantly If you have any questions, or any Coin to analyse you can write them in the comments section below. #####We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC) revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the functioning of the most powerful HIGH frequency trading algorithms very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps straight to the target Join US!! ********* WAKE-UP NEO =) follow the white rabbit********
Long
by LEETRADERS
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above. dax futures comment: Bears printed multiple bars below the 1h 20ema. What a time to be alive. Bulls took profits on the insane meltup but bought 18400 again, which has a bull trend line running through it. As long as that holds, bulls are good. If bears come around again tomorrow, open of the week is a magnet at 19379 and the low of the week at 18347. Tomorrow evening we get the FOMC minutes, so best to be flat going into it. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls took a breather and kept it above 18400, which is still above the 4h 20ema and max bullish. Below 18347 I think we will see more profit taking and some bigger move down, maybe to the daily ema at 18170. For now bulls remain in control and higher prices are expected as long as above daily ema and the bull trend line intact. For tomorrow I expect mostly sideways movement between 18400 - 18550. Invalidation is below 18340. bear case: Bears stopped the train for now and got near the open of the week, which is good for them. They probably made the market more neutral going into FOMC tomorrow evening. If they could break below the bull trend line, we could see 18300 but everything below would be a huge surprise. They probably wont fight the bulls for 18400 too much and come around above 18500 again. Technically the bears can be hopeful because the high is still a lower high below the start of August at 18650 which was also the high tick for the month so far. Invalidation is above 18650. short term: max bullish - only look for longs as long bull trend line is intact and we are above 18300. Below we can look for lower targets like the daily ema but it will probably be just a pullback in this bull trend (inside the big trading range on the daily tf) medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nopety nope nope. Only long scalps currently. trade of the day: I fought the bears too many times today. Denial is the death of your account. It was just bearish since the opening reversal below bar 31. 32 was strong enough to expect more downside but it was also the low of the Globex trading range. Tough to take. Market could not print more then tails and bar 54 above the 15m 20ema and bears had no reason to exit their shorts anywhere. Bad trading on my part today.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Long
by priceactiontds
2
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small stop in the meltup but bulls bought it above the bull trend line. Same as for dax that I do not expect anything below 5600 for now and it should not go above 5650 before FOMC or you can consider me surprised. If anything, I’d bet on a bull breakout and not for strong bears. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5600 - 5650 bull case: Bulls are currently buying the 2h 20ema and did so today. If they keep it above 5600 then 5650 is probably a magnet for tomorrow. On the 1h chart posted today was a two legged pullback down to the current channel and odds favor the bulls to trade back up. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Bears are happy with stopping the advance and scalps. They took profits at new lows today and the market was barely red on the daily chart. I absolutely expect bears to come around big time again but just not right now. Can JPOW surprise the markets this week or can the market look for an excuse to sell it hard again? Sure. Is this more likely than a continuation up? No. Invalidation is above 5650. short term: max bullish above 5600. Below I turn neutral and wait. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling above 5635 was good multiple times but only for scalps tbh.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
GOLD slows down but the trend remains unchangedUS dollar falls to 7-month low and yen hits one-week high, Federal Reserve's Kashkari (hawkish) says he is optimistic about interest rate cuts, a a change from the official's stance in June. OANDA:XAUUSD Spots hit another record high on Monday, and although they later fell, a weaker US dollar and tensions in the Middle East limited the extent of the correction. TVC:DXY , which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, fell to 101.97 and touched 101.85, its lowest since January 2, on Monday's trading day. The market's focus will be on whether Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday indicates that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Another key focus will be whether Powell signals that a rate cut is possible at each meeting. Powell also may not be in a hurry to release details this week, as August employment and inflation data have yet to be released before the Fed's September meeting. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve, recently stated that he is open to cutting interest rates at the next meeting due to the growing possibility of excessive labor market weakness. This is a change from his stance in June. Kashkari said the discussion about cutting interest rates has changed because “inflation is progressing and the labor market is showing some worrying signs.” He believes there is no reason to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points because the layoff rate remains low and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is not showing a clear worsening trend. Geopolitically Russia's Investigative Committee announced on Monday that a bridge on the Sem river, which flows through the Kursk region, was destroyed in a Ukrainian attack. The Ukrainian military said the attack was aimed at disrupting Russian supply lines and making it more difficult to mobilize Russian troops and weapons. Later, Ukrainian President Zelensky elaborated on his goals, saying in his speech: "Now, the top priority in our overall defense operations is to destroy the as much of Russia's war potential as possible and carry out maximum counter-offensive operations. This includes establishing a buffer zone within Russia's territory." Hamas rejects the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East Hamas accused the US of "continuing the fight for Israel" after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted transitional proposals for a ceasefire in Gaza and called on Palestinian groups to do the same on one's own. However, Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan said the Palestinian group would only “agree to implement” Biden's UN Security Council-backed proposal, which was accepted last month. Medical sources said Israeli forces had killed at least 35 Palestinians in Gaza in the past 24 hours and Kamal Adwan Hospital warned that 11 children were at risk of death due to fuel shortages, which could lead to close the door. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After renewing its all-time peak, gold had certain but insignificant adjustments and maintained its price activity around the original price of 2,500 USD. In terms of structure on the daily chart, gold is still being supported for an uptrend with the main trend being noticed by the price channel and main support by EMA21. Meanwhile, the nearest support level is noticed in the area of ​​2,484 – 2,471 USD, sent to readers in the weekly publication. As long as gold remains above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level, it still has short-term bullish prospects. On the other hand, once gold maintains stability above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, it will tend to continue to increase for a period of time. new period and the target after that is about 2,544USD. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish. But traders also always need to be ready for strong and widespread fluctuations in the current market context. Notable price points are listed below. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,503 – 2,509 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2536 - 2534⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2540 →Take Profit 1 2529 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2524 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2474 - 2476⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2470 →Take Profit 1 2481 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2486
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#BTC USDT 1H TF analysis + Swing trade Setup x5 # hello TRADERS , hope you’re doing well this is our analysis of BTC in 1H TF BTC just reached an OB of a supply after making A market structure shift we expect price to drop bellow the equilirium area and target the main internal liquidity shown on the chart we may swing this position to target the main internal liq down bellow trade may go fast due to the news coming today ######### POSITION SETUP ######## recommended leverage: X3 ENTRY POINT :61298 SL:62762 TP:54470 ### Not financial advice disclaimer ### #You can use leverage at your own responsability and according to your risk management strategy ## remember to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research. always, trade with caution ## Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis #Make sure you follow and activate the notification to catch the move instantly If you have any questions, or any Coin to analyse you can write them in the comments section below. #####We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC) revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the functioning of the most powerful HIGH frequency trading algorithms very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps of straight to the target Join US!! ********* WAKE-UP NEO =) follow the white rabbit********
Short
by LEETRADERS
2024-08-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - That reversal is something you will not witness often while you are alive. I don’t think there are many arguments beside’s “short squeeze” that could produce such a violent move but then again, who cares why. In my weekly outlook I wrote that I can only be neutral going into this week and all was looking decent until US opened and market almost went up again in a straight line. At this point I am fairly certain that in the next 2-6 weeks you will read about funds closing because they got caught so hard on this. Train is not stopping so look for decent entries when market refuses to go down again and ride the big wave up. dax futures comment: I wrote that best for bulls would be to stay above 18000 on a pullback and a measured move could bring us to 18800. Market can’t trade below the 1h 20ema and bulls are just unreal currently. Only look for longs until bears can do a 1h bar close below the 1h ema. Next targets above are 18800 and then 19000. Insane strength. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls are just in a big hurry without any bears around. Must pump the market as fast as high as it can get. Please don’t look for macro reasons here, you are out of your mind if you try to come up with rational arguments. Just find an ema that is holding and long it. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Nothing. When bears manage to print a bar close below the 1h 20ema, I will look for bearish targets. As of now it’s 18400 they have to conquer but who on earth would short this right now. Unless we get a huge event and scared traders, this won’t stop until new ath is reached. Small chance we see a bigger pullback on the big bear trend line around 18750. Invalidation is above 19000. short term: max bullish - only look for longs until bears print a bar close below the 1h 20ema medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nopety nope nope. Only long scalps currently. trade of the day: Long EU open and never look at it until US close. Doji at the 1h 20ema, so go long above it. There were two decent targets above, gap close to Friday and last weeks high. Both are magnets, no reason to exit anywhere. When in doubt, zoom out.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Long
by priceactiontds