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2024-08-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Oil - Bears showed signs of life, rejecting 80 with decent selling. Still an inside bar to Monday and bulls bought it at the bull trend line. Below 78 bears start hoping again, but it’s more reasonable to expect more upside. At the very least a retest of 80 and if bears are strong, they try to keep that resistance. comment: Expected pullback by the bears and bulls bought the bull trend line. Everything in order so far, retest of 80 is expected. If bulls are strong, we will break above for 81 or 82. Below 77.6 bears could get hopeful and again but I doubt it. Daily ema is at 77.2, so that would be their first target. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 77 - 82 bull case: Bulls tried twice at 80.15 and then mostly stepped aside after bears increased the selling pressure on bar 37/38. They bought the bull trend line and want a retest of 80 from here. If they fail to keep it above the bull trend line and 77.6, they risk that 80 was a lower high and bears might try to sell down to 72 again. Since Monday was so strong, more upside is the higher probability outcome over the next days. Invalidation is below 78.6. bear case: Bears generated decent selling pressure and retest the bull trend line. I don’t think they want to fight hard for 79 and will try to keep it below 80 again. If they would manage to break below the bull trend line, their next target would be the daily ema at 77.2. Invalidation is above 79. short term: Bullish above 78.8 for retest of 80. Bearish below 77.6 for more downside. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Sell below bar 37. Can take most off at the double bottom bar 50 + 54 and exit runner once the market reached the bull trend line and refused to trade below it.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
GOLD fell slightly, but the target is the all-time highOn the Asian market on Tuesday (August 13), gold was delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD A slight decrease after a pressure increase close to the all-time peak is the price increase target sent to readers recently. Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East have fueled safe-haven buying, with gold now aiming for $2,500 an ounce once its all-time peak is surpassed. Gold jumped amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to delay any more interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time at its upcoming September meeting, possibly by 50 basis points. Gold started the new week positively in the context of slowing demand for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East are boosting gold demand. Western countries warn that Iran could launch an attack on Israel, which would reduce the possibility of a ceasefire. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Israel placed its military on high alert Monday after learning of preparations by Iran and the militant group Hezbollah. The Wall Street Journal said: "Israel put its military on high alert for the first time this month after witnessing Iran and Hezbollah preparing to launch attacks. Israel does not know whether an attack is imminent." happening or not but they are taking action". Israeli military spokesman Hagari issued a statement Monday evening local time, saying that the Israeli military is “Closely monitoring developments in the region, especially the activities of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanon, and prepare defenses to respond to attacks.” Rising tensions in the Middle East have also created some safe-haven demand, and gold has always been a top choice for traditional haven demand. As we have sent to readers throughout recent publications, gold is receiving active support by the two most important fundamental factors: - On the one hand, the USD has less attractive prospects when the Fed is very close to its first interest rate cut, and the market also has many speculations that the Fed will have more cuts this year. . The cutting cycle begins, the USD's correlation with gold weakens and this is an important driving force supporting gold prices. - On the other hand, gold always reacts positively to market risks, especially geopolitical risks that always create surprises that cause gold prices to skyrocket. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD For the time being, gold is limited by its all-time high and also the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension. However, the gold price has all the technical conditions for a bullish outlook with the main trend being noticed by the trend price channel, the main support is also noticed by the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the short to medium term technical outlook remains bullish, while the RSI crosses above 50 and remains bullish but has not yet reached the overbought, showing that there is still plenty of room for price increases ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bullish with notable levels listed below. Support: 2,450 – 2,448USD Resistance: 2,477 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499 ⚰️SL: 2505 ⬆️TP1: 2494 ⬆️TP2: 2489 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2431 ⬆️TP2: 2436
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Oil crushing it's slippery slope NYMEX:MCL1! After nearly a month of selling, oil seems to be taking back buyer's momentum that first started on July 17th, 2024 and ended on August 6th, 2024. When the creation of the "W" formed shortly after hitting a 10 min supply area, this signaled the last moments of Oil's sell trend. As we go into this week, we see that oil is still coming in hot to take back supply area's that it created on the 1hr timeframe, but it's due for a pullback. Depending on after market movements, we can possibly see Oil start to pullback to continue making buy structure to the upside. Oil has a good possibility to make it back to the areas of 83.50 and 84.50. Since in current time right now as I'm typing this, Oil has already broken 3 LH's (lower high) that were created between July 22nd, 2024 and August 1st, 2024. We can see pullbacks in the range of 78.84 and 77.12 to potentially see continuation of buying movements. Within this outlook, my current analysis is buyers market until price shows other signs.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by eightyfourtrades
1
2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - All went mostly sideways and today had many scalp opportunities in both directions since support and resistance were visible early and respected through the session. If you are not comfortable with those trading days, practice on demo account. These days are common and they can be your bread & butter in between big swings. dax futures comment: Bull wedge broken through sideways movement. Market is in total balance around 17780 and we can only go absolutely neutral into tomorrow. Bulls need a strong breakout above 17850 and then 17900, if they want 18000 again and I can’t see this happening without a really low ppi print. Same argument for the bears, if needs to be hot for this to drop below 17700. current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 17900 bull case: Only thing bulls had going for them today is that they prevented the market going below 17700 but nothing else. They broke outside the wedge bear flag and are risking a breakdown below tomorrow. Their last hope is a soft ppi print tomorrow and maybe the lower bear flag trend line holding (around 17700 right now). Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears printed two consecutive bear doji’s on the daily chart and achieved their main goal today by keeping the market below 18000. Their big bear case would be seriously hurt if bulls can get above the big round number again. Bears now want the wedge bear flag to break down and trade back to 17300 and below. Not more magic to it. You should not make stuff up after the market went mostly sideways. If you want more analysis of this, please read my weekly update. Invalidation is above 18020. short term: Neutral until a decent breakout below the wedge bear flag but then full bear mode again. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940 trade of the day: Short bar 9 while it formed. Was better visible on the 15m tf. Big resistance on round number 17900 and it had a decent signal bar before. Question is, could you have held through the pullback from bar 10 to 12? Today was a ranging day and scalping both directions on clear support was much easier to catch.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Huge bull breakout on low volume. Bulls went above 2500 with ease and next target is a higher high again above 2522. As of now it’s still a triangle and if bears appear tomorrow, odds favor a trade back down. You can’t get bullish above 2500 other than scalps. comment: Clear breakout above the previous channel and a decent channel upwards. Market could not close below the 15m 20ema since bar 23. On the daily chart we are near the upper resistance of the triangle and if bears come around tomorrow, r:r clearly favors them to trade back below 2450 again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2400 - 2536 bull case: Bulls did not meet much resistance by the bears today and we had a bull trend day on low volume. I take those with caution. Bulls next target is a higher high above 2522 and then a retest of the ath at 2536. If they can manage 2522, the ath could fall probably without much resistance and if we see a volume increase, we could potentially go much higher but that’s very low probability, given that 2500 was rejected so many times now on the weekly/monthly chart. Invalidation is below 2490. bear case: Bears stepped aside enough today but need to build much stronger selling pressure now to keep this also a lower high and stay inside the triangle. Will be interesting tomorrow. I do think odds favor them to trade back down but market will probably need either sideways movement above 2500 or a very strong sell signal like the last 2 sell offs above 2500. Bears first target is a close below the 15m 20ema and then trading below the 1h 20ema. Then they can start breaking bull trend lines. I do think much is dependent on the ppi print tomorrow and how most traders interpret it. Invalidation is above 2522. short term: Neutral above 2500. No interest in buying this at the highs. Only a very strong break above 2536 could change that. Waiting for bears to come around and if they can reverse this. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 21 + 18 or long since bar 22 or 23. Double bottom was almost perfect and had 5 consecutive 1h bull bars following it.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Ready for a new trading week with CPI data in focusOANDA:XAUUSD closed slightly down last week, but a recovery over the past two trading days has helped gold prices narrow their losses this week. Investors will receive US CPI and retail sales data next week, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. In addition, developments in the Middle East are also the focus of investors' attention. Yesterday's US unemployment claims data eased fears of a recession and boosted gold prices. Additionally, Federal Reserve commentary this week also supports the view that an interest rate cut may be imminent. After a volatile week, traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in an unusually aggressive way have also weakened. Globally, risk appetite also gradually recovered as the week progressed, tempered by demand for gold, considered a top safe-haven asset. However, Fed policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation has cooled enough to allow interest rate cuts. They will decide the size and timing of interest rate cuts based on economic data rather than stock market turmoil. A big storm is coming, the US CPI will be announced this week as the market focus This week's economic calendar will release US inflation data for July. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in July, while core CPI , excluding fluctuating food and energy prices, will also increase 0.2% month-on-month. On an annual basis, the headline CPI inflation rate is expected to moderate to 2.9% from 3% in June. If CPI rises higher than expected compared to last month, investors can reassess the possibility of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September and help the Dollar strengthen and of course this will be the immediate reaction. immediately because it is expected to decrease. On the other hand, if the data meets or misses market expectations, it could put pressure on the US Dollar, opening the door for another bullish wave for gold. On Thursday, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for July. US retail sales are expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month in July after flat change in June. Significant growth in retail sales could ease fears of a US recession and weigh on gold by supporting the dollar, while negative data would have the opposite effect. CME's "Fed Watch Tool" shows that the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September to be 49%. It is also important to note that in addition to economic data being the focus of attention, readers, investors, and traders also need to pay attention to geopolitical developments. In the current context, focus should be on the situation in the Middle East as signs of escalation continuously appear in the market. Information will be updated with readers through short comments or daily publications. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After receiving support from the key technical area for the uptrend that readers noticed throughout the publication over the past week, the confluence area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the lower edge of the price channel and the The $2,378 technical has pushed gold to achieve its near-term upside target at $2,437. Temporarily, gold's upside momentum is limited at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, price point of $2,437, but it has also achieved full bullish conditions. With the closest support currently noticed by the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, as long as gold remains above the EMA21 the near-term bullish outlook prevails. On the other hand, once gold breaks $2,437 it will continue towards an all-time high with no significant technical resistance beyond this level ahead. All technical and fundamental conditions are supportive of price increases, so cases expecting a correction should be opened with very short-term positions. This week's market is expected to have more complex fluctuations from macro data, and the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price points. Support: 2,408 – 2,400USD Resistance: 2,437 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2443 - 2441 ⚰️SL: 2447 ⬆️TP1: 2436 ⬆️TP2: 2431 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2404 - 2406 ⚰️SL: 2400 ⬆️TP1: 2411 ⬆️TP2: 2416
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax: Bears will get a second leg down but it can take more time to go sideways. Whole week was basically going nowhere and as neutral as can be so you can’t go into next week with a huge bias. Both sides have valid arguments to reach prices above and below Friday’s close. Quote from last week: comment: Thursday and Friday printed two of the strongest consecutive bear bars for months and market stopped around the 200d ema. This selling is different than before and this will be the breakout to new lows, most likely down to the monthly 20ema around 17000-17400. My measured move target from 3 months ago was 17000. My best guess is that we get there over the next 2-8 weeks. Short term I expect a bounce but it’s absolutely possible that we print another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday to get to the monthly 20ema and my measured move target of 17000. comment: Above pretty much described exactly what happened last week and for now all my bearish targets are met. I still expect another test of the lows. These tests can be higher,lower or pretty much the same. You never ever know in advance and you have to trade it as it comes. After that retest we will likely see another pullback to the 20ema or previous pullback highs (right now 17862) and more sideways movement inside the current range. It’s always an obvious pattern that we get another strong leg in the trend direction, when the daily 20ema is close enough or we hit it 1-3 times. Going into next week I am absolutely neutral and I think 17700-17900 is a dead zone for trading. Want to see strong momentum in either direction for me to scalp. current market cycle: Clear bear trend with the break below the previous low on Monday. Market is in W2 and we get a W3 (second leg down) over the next 1-2 weeks. It is still a minor bear trend inside the big bull trend since 2023-10 until the bull trend line around 16850 is broken. key levels: 17000 - 18200 bull case: Climactic selling lead to an expected pullback and sideways movement. Are the bulls showing strength here? All bars since Monday are heavily overlapping and bulls barely made higher highs. The only argument they have going for them is that they bought dips and closed green at the highs of the bars. They are in damage control and need to close the huge bear gap up to 18200. The higher they can get, the better and weaker the bear trend becomes. Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears crashed it down to 17110 and took profits there. They are currently seeing the wedge bear flag as a minor pullback inside the near bear trend. Their target is a measured move down to around 15600 but that’s far away and we have the big bull trend line from 20231-10 a bit below 17000. They want to start testing it because its also where the monthly 20 ema is and the last time we touched it was 2023-11. Two big obvious magnets below and enough reason for a second leg down. My preferred path forward is 1-2 bear bars on the daily chart next week, another pullback to the daily ema around 18000 before another leg down to the big bull trend line below 17000. Invalidation is above 18700. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode. Will see a pullback but I do think it will be a very shallow one and it could stay below 18300. → Last Sunday we traded 17731 and now we are at 17776. High was 17862, so still 400 points below my target. I also wrote that we could crash down on Monday/Tuesday to 17000, which we did. Very good outlook. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback has two sided trading and I think a test below 17500 comes before 18000 but after a low, we should see another try from the bulls to print 18000 again or touch the daily 20ema. At which I will load up on shorts again, if we see bear strength. medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. current swing trade: Waiting for the wedge bear flag to break down and load up on shorts for a second leg down/W3 chart update: Added the wedge bear flag and adjusted the potential current channel we are in. Once the bear flag breaks down, we can draw a new channel but we won’t know for sure which one gets respected by the market until it get’s tested again. Also added the current bear gap to 18200.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Last weeks update is still worth reading because it was so on point and most prices given are still valid. Bears need to keep it below 5400/5450 and bulls want above so the bulls would have retraced much more than the 50% they currently have. Also neutral going into next week. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months. comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday. current market cycle: Bear trend started with the drop from 5600 down to 5119. The second leg will bring us to or below 5000, where I expect much more sideways movement again. That big round number will probably be fought over for the next weeks until more bad news come around or earnings Q3 will show clear deterioration. key levels: 5000-5500 bull case: Bulls already recovered a bit more than 50% of the 480 point sell off and if they get above 5450, the chances of a bear trap and not a bear trend, are bigger than a continuation of the selling. Bulls want exactly that and Monday/Tuesday will be key for the next impulse. A daily close above the 20ema would also turn the momentum in favor of the bulls again. Their target is 5430 and then a daily close above the daily ema. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears need to step in and keep the market below 5430. That’s it. If they get strong selling again on Monday, I do think that below 5300 most bulls will cover and we see a retest of 5200 and lower. Bears still see this as a pullback in a bear trend and 50-60% is a normal retracement. Invalidation is above 5430. outlook last week: short term : Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024. → Last Sunday we traded 5376 and now we are at 5370. Market sold off to 5119 so my read was perfect. Down there I wrote “you can’t get bearish at these lows” and the pullback was expected and written of. Hope you made some. short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there. medium-long term: Same as dax. Want to see a break of this bear flag before I calculate new targets and draw a better channel. We will likely see 5000 before end of October. current swing trade: None. Will load again on shorts on Monday/Tuesday if bears appear again. chart update: Added second bear gap, adjusted the possible bear channel and removed all broken bull trend lines.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bears got follow through but bulls still kept it a higher lower. Best for bears would be to keep it below 2480 or we might as well go to 2510 again. Big triangle on the daily chart and currently exactly at the midpoint of it. Does not get more neutral than this. Quote from last week: comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months. comment : Easy analysis. We are 4 points above last weeks close. We are in a triangle and exactly at the midpoint, again. Market is as neutral as it gets. Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. Either buy low and sell high inside given range or wait for a breakout. current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged key levels: 2400 - 2520 bull case : Bulls bought the dip again and kept it at higher lows. Odds favor a test of 2500 or 2510. It would be very strong by the bulls if they could get above 2522 again. Not more to it currently. Invalidation is below 2400. bear case: Market is neutral around 2470. Bears gave up on Thursday since they only made a higher low and could not get a daily close below 2430. I don’t think many bears want to fight this until we get above 2500 again. If they do, probably not due to technical reasons (by technical I always mean TA - technical analysis) Invalidation is above 2522. outlook last week: short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. → Last Sunday we traded 2469 and now we are at 2473. Perfect outlook. short term: Neutral around 2475. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. Want to see 2500 to look for shorts again. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Most interesting currently. Bulls got right to the upper bear channel and the daily 20ema. Bears have a do or die moment here. If they fail, we can rally all the way back up to 80 and if bulls fail, we likely test back down to at least 72. Quote from last week: comment : Bears are in a hurry and hit my lower target of 73 way ahead of time. My bearish targets are met for now and market is at the bottom of the bear channel and hit a bull trend line. If this won’t hold on Monday/Tuesday, we will see 65 in the next 2-3 weeks. I do think Oil is currently a prime example of why it’s important to learn to read charts and not the f*****g news who wants to tell you every week why Oil is going up due to macro event xyz. Only thing mattering next week is how high the pullback will be to see if we stay inside the triangle or break below. On the weekly/monthly chart the triangle pattern is coming to an end and we will likely see a bigger breakout over the next weeks or months. If this coincides with a macro event, well… You read it here first, many months before the event. comment: Pullback right to the bear trend line and daily 20ema. As foretold. You welcome. Right. Bullish targets met and do or die moment for bears. Bear trend line has to hold or we stay inside the big triangle and targets above will be 79 and then 80. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) - nested bear trend inside could still be valid if we reverse on Monday key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls kept it above 71.5 and bears gave up on Wednesday. Easy so far. Bulls now need a break above the bear channel and a daily close above it to make most bears cover. If they do that, we will likely see a quick move to 80 again. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears need to stay inside the bear channel or the minor bear trend is over. Below 75 I think the odds favor the bears again to trade back to 72 or lower. Given the pattern from the bull trend in June, it’s probably a bit more likely that bears are done for now and we trade back up to 80 but we will find out on Monday. Invalidation is above 78. outlook last week: short term: Neutral and expecting a pullback but need some bull bars first. If market drops below 73, I will scalp short for 70.7 or lower but anything below that is oversold and I’m out. → Last Sunday we traded 73.52 and now we are at 76.84. 70.07 did not get hit but short below 73 was still good for 130 ticks. Pullback after, so another banger of an outlook in Oil. short term: Neutral. Need strong momentum to either side and will join in that direction. Leaning very slightly bullish for a break above 78. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick. It’s done for now and I removed it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD is stable with an uptrendEarly in the Asian trading session on August 9, OANDA:XAUUSD slightly down about 5dollars, currently trading at 2,421USD/oz, equivalent to 0.23% on the day. Gold had earlier rallied on Thursday, supported by solid safe-haven demand and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates sharply in September. Spot gold closed trading on Thursday up sharply at 44.51 USD, equivalent to 1.87%, at 2,427.11 USD/ounce, ending the previous 5 consecutive days of decline. Gold has benefited from speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more sharply than previously estimated. This sentiment was reinforced when the latest macroeconomic data showed that the US economy could face a recession, sparking speculation that interest rates could be cut. 3 times before the end of this year. According to data from CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market sees a 56.5% chance that interest rates will decrease by 50 basis points in September, with a further cut expected in December. Meanwhile, there is about a 43.5% chance that interest rates will be cut by 50 basis points in September. % chance that the Fed will cut 25 basis points. Big news about attacks on Israel Gold's appeal is supported by geopolitical risks that Iran and Lebanon could retaliate against Israel. The latest developments in the Middle East increase geopolitical risks. While market sentiment remains positive, there are concerns about impending retaliation by Iran and Lebanon against Israel. On August 8 local time, Hezbollah in Lebanon announced that it had used Katyusha rockets, heavy artillery shells and guided weapons to attack many Israeli military targets that day. The targets of the attack included the launch pad of Israel's Iron Dome system, the Israeli military barracks in Zarit and the Israeli military base in Kfar Shuba. Israel TV Channel 12 reported that Israel hoped to send a message in this way that Israel was prepared for the conflict to escalate into a full-scale war. Gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic instability. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has recovered rapidly from the key support confluence area noted by readers in previous publications, highlighted by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, the lower edge of the price channel and horizontal support level 2,378USD. Currently, gold's move above the original price of 2,400 USD and EMA21 are positive conditions for an uptrend with the next target at 2,437 USD, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. In case gold breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the target will once again be aimed at the all-time high at $2,484 price point when there is no notable technical resistance ahead. During the day, the trend of gold prices is still bullish and as long as gold remains above 2,400 USD, the short-term technical outlook will continue to be bullish. The prices will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,416 – 2,400 – 2,385USD Resistance: 2,437 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2444 - 2442 ⚰️SL: 2448 ⬆️TP1: 2437 ⬆️TP2: 2432 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2404 - 2406 ⚰️SL: 2400 ⬆️TP1: 2411 ⬆️TP2: 2416
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls kept the wedge alive which surprised me. Consecutive bull bars on the daily chart now but only a slightly higher high. Odds favor a reversal below 17800 for at least 17600. I think there is a decent chance we puke during the Globex session again. Above 17820 I am probably wrong and the bull breakout could work. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls kept the market above 17450 and got a strong close today. For a bull breakout above this wedge bear flag, they need consecutive bull bars above 17800. If they let the market fall below 17700 again, odds favor the bears for at least 17600 and also after 3 pushes up, bears could get a breakout below. Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears were not strong enough to push below 17450 and then stepped aside once bulls printed consecutive 1h bull bars above the 1h 20ema. They need to reverse under 17800 or many bears will give up until at least 18000 and if the momentum is strong enough tomorrow, this could become a very strong bull trend day. The daily 20ema is at 18150 and the breakout price from the June low is 18148. If bears do not prevent the bulls under 18000, we most likely will hit 18150. Odds still favor the bears to keep the wedge bear flag alive and break below instead of above. Invalidation is above 18020. short term: Full bear mode but have to exit shorts above 18020ish and see how high the pullback can go before new shorts. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update 2024-08-06: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: None. If bears show strength again tomorrow, want to get a short around 17900-18000 for tp 17000. trade of the day: I thought long and hard about why I did not long bar 50 or 52 and my answer is always the same, it was a bad buy, high in the trading range and at previous highs after the market had much two sided trading and odds favored the bears to go lower. Not taking that buy was absolutely fine. If you took it, good for you and I hope you made a lot of money.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-08-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much to add after what I wrote in the tl;dr section. So see below. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2400 - 2500 bull case: Bulls have many patterns going for them right now. Biggest is the triangle on the daily chart which held and odds favor the bulls to retest up to 2510ish. I’d be surprised if we get there but that’s only my personal bias talking. Bulls closed above all ema and above the current trading range. They have all the arguments to trade higher yet the 1h chart today looks pretty weak to me, despite the 1.3% gain. Alternating bull/bear bars on the 1h chart do not scream bullish market. Whenever market is giving mixed signals, I just do not trade it. It’s just not worth my energy. Invalidation is below 2450. bear case: Bears kept the market two sided but it still went up 46 points. Bears see this as a marginally higher high to Tuesday and want to reverse from here. They need to keep it below 2475 or bulls will probably buy the momentum for 2500. Bears do not have that many arguments since bulls closed above all ema and reversed from the bull trend line on the daily chart. Invalidation is above 2475. short term: Neutral around 2465, bullish above 2475 for 2500 and bearish below 2450. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: none trade of the day: Same argument for not taking the long as in dax. Buying high in a trading range is a bad buy and market went only 6 points higher than Tuesday. Long since Globex open would have been perfect, as it was a perfect double bottom with Wednesday but not my timezone.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
DXY and Bond Yield still limit GOLDAs market expectations of the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies continue to solidify, higher US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields have sent gold into a correction cycle. significantly reduced. However, bets on a US interest rate cut in September continuing to increase as well as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will still be a solid fulcrum for the possibility of gold price increases. US Treasury yields continued the previous day's rise, recording the largest increase since early June and supporting the US Dollar, which weakened the upward momentum and appeal of gold. non-profit. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against six other currencies, rose to 103.1. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. As market concerns about the situation in the Middle East continue to grow, gold will likely continue to show its appeal as a safe haven. US economic data is sparse this week, traders may focus on today's (Thursday) data on initial jobless claims. In other notable news, China's central bank did not buy gold as reserves for the third consecutive month in July, official data released showed on Wednesday. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 26.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 73.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 15.5%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 51.8%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative 100 basis point yield is 32.7%. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still trying to hold above key technical levels in the area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement confluence with the lower edge of the trend channel and the $2,378 horizontal support, after testing resistance at the confluence of Fibonacci 0.38% and Ema21 were noted to readers in previous publications. The fact that gold maintains its performance above the above support confluence area only shows that the bullish trend still exists on the daily technical chart. However, for gold to have enough conditions for a stable uptrend, it needs to bring price activity above the original price level of 2,400 USD and then the target level will be noticed at EMA21, more than 2,437 USD points. price of Fibonacci 0.236%. During the day, gold is still trending up with the price channel as the main trend and notable technical levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,385 – 2,378USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408 – 2,437USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2407 - 2405 ⚰️SL: 2411 ⬆️TP1: 2400 ⬆️TP2: 2395 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365 ⚰️SL: 2359 ⬆️TP1: 2370 ⬆️TP2: 2375
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 350 points up and then 260 points down. Up move was stronger than I thought and I did not trade it but I nailed the down move. The bull wedge is broken and bulls might retest the breakout at 17600 but that could be the high for tomorrow. I still expect the lows to be retested and today printed another nasty reversal bar on the daily chart. I still expect the lows to hold (it can be a lower low but not close below 17000) but only if this JPN carry blowup did not create an event we are already in. If something broke, next logical support is 16500 but the big bull trend line at around 16800 was last touched in 2023-10 and will most likely not break on the next touch. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls tried 4 times to stay above 17600 and the bull wedge broke in the US session today. If bulls fail to keep the market above 17370, the lows will come fast because many bulls will give up below today’s low. Best bulls can hope for is to stay above that price and go sideways. Their first target is a close above the 1h 20ema which is currently around 17580 and the breakout below the bull wedge. If they keep the market neutral long enough tomorrow, we could try 17600 or higher again but as of now that is very low probability. Invalidation is below 17000. bear case: Bears sold off into the US close again and for tomorrow I do not expect another strong up move in the Globex or early EU session. Too many bulls got trapped again and they will probably wait for a retest of 17100 to look for longs again. Bears target is obvious and since they printed 4 strong consecutive 1h bear bars, they are in control of the market again. Invalidation is above 17650. short term: Full bear mode. Bear flag is broken and retest of the lows probably next medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update 2024-08-06: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: None but will probably look for longs around 17100 trade of the day: Long bar 2 since it was a retest of y close and stay above the bull wedge trend line. Could have closed longs at prior weekly high around 17700 or below bar 56. Next best trade was short bar 62 or bar 66. Decent chance we test the lower wedge trend line again after 3 pushes up.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150. Invalidation is below 5090. bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above. Invalidation is above 5280. short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
USDJPY recovers, downtrend conditionsA sharp shift in Japan's monetary policy, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disappointing US jobs data have pressured global markets since last Friday. . The yen's rapid rise began last Wednesday, when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and laid out a plan to gradually taper its bond-buying program. The US dollar fell nearly 5% against the yen last week and fell further on Monday. However, it recovered slightly by 0.09% on Tuesday and continued to recover on Wednesday. USD/JPY is currently trading around 147. There is a reason the yen could give up recent gains as the market may accept expectations of a US interest rate cut, but it will be more difficult to digest expectations of Japan continuing increase interest rates. Tuesday's data showed Japanese households remained cautious and will struggle to boost aggregate demand enough to keep inflation at 2%. Therefore, it will be difficult for the Bank of Japan to fulfill its desire to continue the cycle of increasing interest rates. However, this is only a subjective assessment, because everything from Japan needs additional information from the BOJ to be able to fully evaluate the path. On the weekly chart, OANDA:USDJPY recovered above 146.385 and above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. However, these recovery levels are not enough for USD/JPY to have bullish conditions when the confluence of the trend price channel (a) and the 0.382% Fibonacci level will be the current closest resistance. For USD/JPY to gain further upside it needs to bring price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and then the target level of around 153,760 price points is the confluence of Ema21 and 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Meanwhile, once USD/JPY is sold off again below 144.520 it will continue to move towards 140.401 in the short term. Currently, technical position conditions for USD/JPY remain bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 144,992 – 144,520 Resistance: 148,654
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is under pressure as Stocks, DXY, Bond yield increaseOANDA:XAUUSD Right at the opening session (August 7), it decreased by 5Dollar to 2,384USD, equivalent to a decrease of 0.25% on the day, as of the time this article was completed. The strength of the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates are the main reasons leading to the sell-off in gold prices. In addition, the recovery in global equity markets has revived the market's risk appetite, which also affected the safe-haven asset gold. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with attacks by Hezbollah in northern Israel, could support safe-haven gold. U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, as a jump in Japanese stocks helped boost sentiment. The Dow increased 294.39 points, or 0.76%, to 38,997.66 points; Nasdaq index increased 166.77 points, equivalent to 1.03%, to 16,366.85 points; The S&P 500 increased 53.70 points, or 1.04%, to 5,240.03 points. On the European stock front, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.08% on Tuesday; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.23% and Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.08%. The Dxy index, which tracks the strength of the US Dollar, also increased to 103,199, equivalent to an increase of 0.26% on the day, a continued increase from the trading day on August 6. Gold is under pressure partly because bond yields continue to increase, with USD10Y increasing to 3,909, equivalent to an increase of 0.33%, similar to Dxy, it also continued the increase of the previous trading session. However, geopolitical issues remain after Hezbollah launched attacks in northern Israel, Valencia added. An escalation of the conflict could boost gold's outlook and even pave the way for a return to $2,400 an ounce. Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah has launched a series of drone and missile attacks on northern Israel. According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market sees a 100% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold returned to test the support level noted by readers in the previous issue. The area is the confluence of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the horizontal support of 2,378USD and the lower edge of the price channel. The above confluence area is an important support area, because if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will be a negative signal for the uptrend, because this means that the uptrend from the inner price channel The medium term was broken under the same double top pattern that formed. Previously, the fact that gold was operating below EMA21 was a technical disadvantage as the EMA21 level would now become resistance in the short term. However, in terms of trend, gold is currently still trending up because the supporting factors are still working well. During the day, the bullish technical outlook from the price channel will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,385 – 2,378 – 2,362USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2416 - 2414 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2409 ⬆️TP2: 2404 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365 ⚰️SL: 2359 ⬆️TP1: 2370 ⬆️TP2: 2375
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-08-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral between 17300 and 17650. Market is trying to find a bottom in a big trading range. As long as market stays below 17900, it’s max bearish. I expect a slow grind to retest the lows over the next 1-2 days and those lows will most likely hold so we can move much more sideways. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls got their pullback but only printed an inside bar on the daily chart, which is weak. Their only goal is to get above 17900 and break above the July low and close as much of the gap to 18150 as possible. First target is 17700 and then the Globex high from Monday at 17732. Invalidation is below 17000. bear case: Bears kept the bounce below the 4h 20ema and below the Globex high from Monday. They want this bear flag to be shallow and mostly sideways before another strong leg down. A measured move down would bring us to 15600 but for that to happen in 2024, we would ne an event or nothing but annihilation of earnings next quarter. My head & shoulders target from 3 or 4 weeks ago was missed by less than 100 points on Monday, I consider this to be close enough. Invalidation is above 17900. short term: full bear mode. Target was 17844 and we got 17110. Play the bear flag for now but the lows will be retested. More sideways movement over the next days or weeks. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: Closed all shorts for 800+ points. Currently not interested in anything but intraday scalps. trade of the day: Shorting the Globex high double top 17650 after the second big bear bar. That was good for 170 points which was a bit lower than the gap to y close.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [05 August - 09 August]This week, the international gold price has continuously increased sharply after opening the week at 2,382 USD/oz due to increasing concerns about the US economic recession and the FED's announcement that it would cut interest rates in September. The gold price climbed to 2,477 USD/oz at one point, but then fell to 2,410 USD/oz and closed at 2,442 USD/oz. The US labor market has been deteriorating further, with the economy adding just 114,000 jobs in July, well below economists' forecasts of 176,000, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. More worryingly, the US unemployment rate in July jumped to 4.3%. This has increased expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting without any further promises. The above economic data will be the echo for the recovery of gold prices next week. From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,437 – 2,431 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484 – 2,475USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2501 - 2499⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2505 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2384 - 2386⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2380
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD trend remains positive, data week is lightDue to weaker-than-expected US employment data and market expectations of interest rate cuts, OANDA:XAUUSD increased more than 1% at the beginning of last week's trading session when the market took profit. As tensions in the Middle East lead to increased safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold has become more attractive to investors. It is up 2.35% this week, showing an overall uptrend. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Fed could cut interest rates as early as September if the U.S. economy grows as expected. Gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, with lower interest rates reducing the opportunity cost of holding the asset and making gold attractive. The latest US Department of Labor released jobs data and 114,000 new workers were added in July, less than the 175,000 expected. The previous data was revised down from 206,000 to 179,000. The data also showed the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3% and average hourly earnings fell by a tenth from 0.3% to 0.2%. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets now see a 22% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, up from 12% previously. The market shows that the Fed will cut interest rates by 86 basis points at the remaining 3 meetings this year. Tensions in the Middle East increased, demand for gold as a safe haven increased, and Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, leading to further escalation of conflict. Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital after attending the inauguration of the new Iranian president, and both Iranian and Hamas officials blamed Israel for the attack. These developments further support gold prices as investors seek safe haven assets amid uncertainty. In terms of short-term forecasts, gold is expected to maintain its bullish trend, driven by risk aversion and dovish Federal Reserve policies. Geopolitical tensions and weak US economic data will support gold prices, Another piece of data to note is U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing that for the week ending July 30, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts were reduced by 9,535 lots to 188,909 lots; Futures contracts decreased by 9,535 lots to 188,909 lots. Economic data and events to watch out for next week Focusing on the market next week, investors will pay attention to the following important events. Monday: ISM Services PMI: to be released on Monday, will provide the market with more information on the state of the services sector in the US. Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision: will be announced on Tuesday and investors will closely monitor its impact on the global monetary policy environment. Wednesday and Thursday: U.S. Bond Auctions: Wednesday and Thursday's 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions will be closely watched, especially after the strong gains of the bond market this week. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold corrects after approaching target level at all-time peak. Note to readers in previous publications that the only closest resistance level was found technically. However, the profit-taking motivation did not cause gold to correct longer, while the support level at the confluence of EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement pushed gold prices to recover above the 0.236% Fibonacci, which should be considered a positive signal for gold prices. On the daily chart, the near-term target for gold prices will still be highlighted by the all-time high, price point of $2,484. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the trend price channel, its technical outlook remains bullish and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,431 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484 – 2,452USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2461 - 2459 ⚰️SL: 2465 ⬆️TP1: 2454 ⬆️TP2: 2449 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2494 - 2496 ⚰️SL: 2490 ⬆️TP1: 2401 ⬆️TP2: 2406
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered after a large correctionOANDA:XAUUSD recovered to above the original price of 2,400 USD after suffering a general decline in the market during the bloody trading session on August 5. In general, in terms of basic and technical trends, the uptrend for gold prices is still will prevail. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets and bet that the Federal Reserve now needs to sharply cut interest rates to spur economic growth. In addition, geopolitical developments in the Middle East are showing more and more signs that escalation is also a huge driving force for gold prices. Economic data US services sector activity recovered in July Activity in the U.S. services sector rebounded from a four-year low in July as orders and employment increased, data showed. The services sector expanded again in July, exiting its worst recession in four years, which may help ease fears of a widespread economic slowdown. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) comprehensive services industry index rose 2.6 points to 51.4, above 50, the index's key boundary. The July data was slightly higher than the average forecast of economists surveyed. The index was boosted by a rebound in services employment, orders and business activity, showing modest growth in the services sector, the economy's biggest pillar. Previously, US Department of Labor data released on Friday showed the unemployment rate rose to a nearly three-year high of 4.3% and job growth slowed significantly. The jobs report increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will make more aggressive interest rate cuts before the end of the year. According to CME's FedWatch tool, a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is certainly imminent. The data also showed that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut lending rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Political geography Gold prices remain significantly supported by rising geopolitical tensions and growing concerns about a global economic slowdown. The conflict in the Middle East appears to have widened, with Iran-backed Hezbollah saying it fired multiple missiles at Israel on Saturday in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in Tehran aimed at assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. In terms of fundamentals, geopolitical tensions have increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered significantly after suffering a large correction yesterday with another retest of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, keeping price activity above the $2,400 raw price is a positive signal for gold prices and staying above EMA21 opens up the prospect of a more extended upside with a short-term target around 2,431 – 2,437 USD. Looking at the overall picture, the structure for the uptrend of gold prices has not been affected with the price channel being the main trend in the medium term. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bullish with notable price levels listed below. Support: 2,408 – 2,400 – 2,385USD Resistance: 2,431 – 2,437USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2426 - 2424 ⚰️SL: 2430 ⬆️TP1: 2419 ⬆️TP2: 2414 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2394 - 2396 ⚰️SL: 2390 ⬆️TP1: 2401 ⬆️TP2: 2406
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading