SELL NASDAQYou can sell on NASDAQ/NAS100/NQ with the same levels I set on the chart.
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Futures
GOLD is under pressure as the Middle East cools downOn the Asian market today Tuesday (November 12), spot gold has basically stabilized after yesterday's decline and the gold price is currently at about 2,619 USD/ounce as of the time this article was published. complete.
OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery has had a large decline as demand for US Dollars continues to increase. Trump's victory in the 2024 election and signs that the Republicans will take full control of Congress have boosted the US Dollar and this will create pressure on gold as a non-producing asset. Yields are directly correlated with the US Dollar. This was brought to the attention of readers many times in publications evaluating the case of Trump winning the US Presidential election.
News point
The latest data from the US "Capitol Hill" shows that the US Republican Party now wins 218 seats in the House of Representatives, more than half of them, and has won control of the House of Representatives. This means that the Republican Party has won comprehensively, taking control of the House, Senate and the presidential election.
On November 5, the United States held its four-year general election. In addition to electing a new president, this general election also re-elected all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 seats in the Senate. To become the majority party in the House of Representatives, it needs at least 218 seats.
In addition to the US, tensions in the Middle East also seem to be easing, which also reduces market risk aversion and negatively impacts gold prices.
Israel on Monday said it was making progress in ceasefire talks with Lebanon and suggested Russia could play a role in preventing Hezbollah from rearming through Syria, Reuters reported.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel's war against Hezbollah is not over. He said the main challenge to any ceasefire agreement would be implementation, despite "some progress" in negotiations.
Sa'ar said Israel is working with the United States to reach a ceasefire agreement. He said Israel wants Hezbollah to stay north of the Litani River and cannot rearm. The basic principle of any ceasefire agreement must be that Hezbollah cannot bring weapons from Syria into Lebanon.
Israel Today reported on Sunday that significant progress had been made in diplomatic negotiations on a Lebanese ceasefire proposal, which would require Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and ban deployments near the Israeli border , while the Israel Defense Forces will return to the international border.
About monetary policy
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, traders now predict a 68.5% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, compared with about 80% before Trump's election victory.
Trump's fiscal plan could reignite inflation and widen the budget deficit, while traders have reduced bets on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
This week, the US economic situation will affect gold prices. Traders will be watching for comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as the release of key data such as consumer and manufacturer inflation and retail sales.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues its downtrend with the price channel noticed by readers in previous publications as a short-term trend. The rallies were very weak as the technical structure tilted completely towards the downside.
The nearest resistance is noticed at the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down from 50 and is still far from the oversold level, showing that there is still wide downside space ahead.
On the other hand, the nearest support level at the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level is also the location of the original price level of 2,600 USD. Once this level is broken below gold, there will be conditions to continue falling even more with the following target. That's about $2,588 in the short term, more than the 1% Fibonacci price point of $2,548.
During the day, the technical outlook leans towards the bearish trend and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,610 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,640USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2665
→Take Profit 1 2654
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
→Take Profit 1 2606
↨
→Take Profit 2 2611
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.10 - 11.15.24Last Week :
Last week market opened under 5792 - 72 Edge which meant weakness to start the week and gave us moves towards lower VAH but again we kept getting buying at and under Previous Distribution Balance low and inside Value. We knew to be careful and that holding over 730s meant there is no need for larger supply to sell out. 724 was also an important area on Daily TF as it was the bottom of Daily Edge which we broke out of after our roll gap in September, we tested it but there was no break or any continuation under it. We knew if market gets back over 790s that could bring back strength to push back in Previous Value which is what we got on Tuesday leading into Election Results. Election Globex gave a huge move which continued higher towards 930s - 770s ranges Edge, took it out, consolidated and rest of the week we got lower volume grind higher into a new range to finish the week with a failure over new Value.
This Week :
Not easy to trade ATHs especially if we get them every few weeks or months and of course this move could be viewed as strength to bring in more buying that can keep us in this range or even continue grinding higher BUT something to keep in mind as few things are lining up here.
We have made an Edge to Edge push on Daily TF ( reaching big Edge areas more often than not provides reaction in opposite direction ) , we have extended away from Daily MAs with a strong impulse that gave us blow off the top sort of move over our Previous Highs consolidation, we have finished the week with a failed or sort of failed push over VAH since we didn't fully come back in and held over 920s , we didn't reach new ranges top.
Now all this doesn't mean we can't hold and continue balancing/grinding higher towards that Edge top and over still BUT if all this buying over 930s was from all the late buyers/traders who sat on their hands during the election days, came in saw areas holding and were buying for continuation to make money off momentum then they were also probably unloading as it went higher and might not have plans to hold this up long term unless market continues in their favor. If market does not continue in their favor and we get back under VAH / 620s then we could see this thing start moving towards their cost basis, we have Poor Globex low holding one of them up around the Mean of the Range, if that gets taken we will look for continuation towards VAL which has another cost basis and a base below it which could give us covering/holds in that area BUT I would not trust those areas for a longer term position, if market cant keep holding over the Mean/VAL of this range then we could see it come all the way back into lower Edge and maybe even under our Previous Highs to signal a failed new ATH break out. Will this all happen in a week or will it be a slow process is for us to find out, we don't really have market moving data to start the week and if we don't get new buying to keep pushing us then we at least can look for this process to start and see how it goes.
On the other side for this move to stick and to think higher prices from here we would want to see us hold over VAH or at least push back towards the Mean/Hold over and get back over VAH as we need to get over 640s and test the upper Edge with holds inside or right under the Edge after the test, until this happens I will lean more towards a move back inside Value towards VAL and potentially finding our top around here.
2024-11-11 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bulls need a strong move above 19600 for higher prices and bears a 1h bar close below 19500. Leaning very slightly bullish because overall market environment. On the daily chart the market is printing alternating bull/bear bars so your guess is as good as mine when this will end. For now it’s best to scalp and fade the extremes.
dax futures
comment : Slightly bullish bias was right and market just want higher since Globex open. 19600 was rejected as it was last week but at least bulls made higher lows and higher highs again. 19500 is a tough spot for a trade as of now. If bulls can keep it above that price, that would bring much higher prices in play. If we close a 1h bar below, we likely test down to 19350 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 19700
bull case: Bulls had a decent day but inside prior range and they got rejected at previous resistance. Buying above 19500 was not profitable so far and that did not change today. Best for bulls would be to make 19500 support and poke 19620 enough times until bears give up. It’s currently in a week channel upwards or a trending trading range or whatever you want to call it, it does not matter because you trade them the same.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears need a 1h bar close below 19500 or more bulls will join the buying above 19500. The rejection from 19600 was reasonable strong but in an overall maximum bullish environment, this market will have a hard time going down. If we look at the last 3 bears legs down, they get weaker and I do think many bears will give up, if bulls try to push through 19600 with force. Another way to look at this from the daily tf is that bears prevented the bulls from a daily close above 19500 for 2 weeks now. This can only continue so much until bulls give up. Both sides have reasonable arguments and this is almost always the case in trading ranges.
Invalidation is above 19800.
short term: Neutral. Bulls need a strong move above 19600 for higher prices and bears a 1h bar close below 19500. Leaning very slightly bullish because overall market environment.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Any long before EU open with stop 19250 was reasonable and then after the move above 19500 it was tough. At that point 19600 was very likely but stop was very far away for a limited upside. The sell off from 19620 down to 19450 was much stronger than I expected.
Options Blueprint Series [Basic]: Corn Futures and PPI InsightsIntroduction to Corn Futures Market Sentiment
Corn Futures are capturing the interest of traders as technical indicators and economic fundamentals align in a potential bullish setup. Currently, the Corn Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a Commodity Channel Index (CCI) bullish crossover, indicating a possible uptrend in prices. Corn Futures have followed suit with an earlier CCI bullish crossover, adding strength to the view that Corn prices could see upward momentum in the coming months.
As Corn Futures reflect early signals of a shift in market sentiment, this article explores a straightforward yet effective Bull Call Spread strategy using June 2025 options. By leveraging these CCI signals and key resistance levels, traders could position themselves to benefit from a potential rise in Corn prices while maintaining a controlled risk profile.
Corn Futures Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Understanding the specifications of Corn Futures is essential for managing both position size and margin requirements effectively. Here’s a quick breakdown:
Price Tick Size: The minimum fluctuation is 0.0025 cents per bushel, equivalent to $12.50 per tick.
Margin Requirement: Approximately $1,000 per contract, although this can vary based on broker and market conditions.
Analysis of Key Indicators and Market Setup
Two primary indicators support the bullish case for Corn Futures: the CCI bullish crossover in both the Corn Futures and the Corn PPI. The CCI, a momentum-based indicator, identifies potential trend reversals by highlighting overbought and oversold conditions. The recent CCI bullish crossover in Corn Futures suggests early buying pressure, while the subsequent crossover in the Corn PPI confirms this trend on the economic front.
This alignment between technical and economic indicators provides a potentially unique opportunity for options traders to capture potential upward movement, particularly as Corn prices approach critical resistance levels in front of a potential breakout.
Identifying Key Resistance Levels for Corn Futures
Resistance levels play a crucial role in setting realistic targets and managing expectations. In the current Corn Futures landscape, the primary resistance level for the front contract is observed around 550. For our target contract, ZCN2025 (July 2025), this resistance translates to approximately 485 due to the effects of contango/backwardation.
These resistance levels serve as benchmarks for setting exit targets in a Bull Call Spread. If Corn prices rally towards this zone, it could provide a favorable exit opportunity while maintaining a controlled risk-to-reward structure.
The Bull Call Spread Strategy Setup
In this setup, we employ a Bull Call Spread using options with a June 20, 2025, expiration date. This strategy is ideal for capturing moderate upside movement while limiting downside risk through a capped loss. Here’s the specific setup:
Long Position: Buy the 460 Call for a premium of 25.41.
Short Position: Sell the 490 Call for a premium of 15.87.
By buying the 460 Call and simultaneously selling the 490 Call, we establish a Bull Call Spread that allows us to benefit from price increases up to the 490 strike level. This setup reduces the net cost of the trade while capping the profit potential at the 490 strike price, aligning with our outlook based on resistance levels.
Net Premium (Cost): 25.41−15.87=9.54.
Reward-to-Risk Analysis
A Bull Call Spread provides a straightforward way to define both maximum profit and loss at the outset. Here’s a closer look:
Maximum Profit: Achieved if Corn Futures price rises to or above the 490 strike level at expiration = (490−460)−9.54=20.46.
Maximum Loss: Limited to the net premium paid = 9.54.
Breakeven Point: 469.54, calculated by adding the net premium to the 460 strike.
This structure results in a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 2.14:1.
Forward-Looking Trade Plan and Execution Strategy
This Bull Call Spread strategy is structured with specific entry and exit conditions in mind:
Entry Condition: Triggered once the ZC1! (continuous Corn Futures contract) surpasses the prior month’s high at 434'2. This confirmation aligns the technical breakout with the ongoing bullish trend indicated by the CCI and PPI crossovers.
Target Exit: Based on the resistance level, the target for this trade is 485 on the ZCN2025 contract. Reaching this level would allow for a strategic exit with a maximum profit potential.
Alternative Exit: If Corn Futures prices fail to sustain the breakout or if technical indicators weaken significantly, an early exit can be considered to limit losses or preserve gains.
By setting these clear parameters, the trade plan maintains discipline, helping traders avoid reactive decision-making and align with the predefined strategy.
Risk Management Essentials
Effective risk management is crucial, especially when trading options. Here are some best practices:
Stop-Loss Strategy: For options traders, a stop-loss can be set based on a percentage of the premium paid or by monitoring underlying futures price action.
Position Sizing: Limit the size of the position relative to the account balance to avoid overexposure. This is especially relevant for volatile markets like Corn.
Discipline and Emotional Control: Stick to the plan, avoid emotional reactions to market noise, and adhere to entry and exit conditions.
Risk management ensures that even if the trade does not perform as expected, losses are limited and capital is preserved for future opportunities.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Also, some of the calculations and analytics used in this article have been derived using the QuikStrike® tool available on the CME Group website.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Nvidia Bearish again! [S2]----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***ALL ANALYSIS, SIGNALS, AND ANY CONTENT IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES
ONLY AND ARE NOT MEANT TO BE PROFITED OFF.***
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I called the top last time, and now I call it again. Last time we hit TP1 and going towards TP2 but then the election interfered. Now lets see what will happen!
Nvidia is bearish once again, the TA remains the same. Got some bear flags showing along with bearish divergences. Also some custom indicators are pointing down as well.
Nvidia pumped and made a new high thanks to Donald J. Trump.
But I believe the FOMO in the market caused from the election is weaning down plus TA is point down too we should see a decent dump.
$146.50-$148.50
TP1: $142.93
TP2: $134.65
TP3: $131.75
Tight Stop Loss: $149.50
Good Stop Loss: $151.25
Loose Stop Loss:$154.50
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***ALL ANALYSIS, SIGNALS, AND ANY CONTENT IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES
ONLY AND ARE NOT MEANT TO BE PROFITED OFF.***
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN IS EXPLOADING BIG TIME. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS + TRADE PLANPrice Action & Trend:
Bitcoin's current price is around $80,853.
The trend is notably bullish, as the price has been in an upward movement with higher highs and higher lows over the past month.
The recent price surge indicates strong bullish momentum, potentially aiming for higher resistance levels.
Indicators:
Market Cipher B: This indicator shows divergences and momentum shifts, often used for trend reversals.
Current green dots indicate bullish momentum, and the increasing wave strength suggests strong upward pressure.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is around 74.81, which is within the overbought zone (above 70). This could mean a potential correction or consolidation period might be approaching, as prices may have risen too quickly.
Stochastic RSI:
The Stochastic RSI shows a value around 89.86, which is also in the overbought zone. This indicator further supports the potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation.
HMA Histogram (Hull Moving Average):
The histogram shows bullish momentum, but there are hints of divergence, which could indicate a slowdown in bullish strength.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest strong support is around $72,000. A more significant level sits at approximately $63,000.
Resistance: With Bitcoin at $80,853, the next major resistance is likely near $85,000 and then potentially $92,000.
Volume:
Although volume data isn’t available in this chart, the current price movement suggests significant buying pressure, likely driven by strong sentiment and high interest.
Trading Plan
Long Position (Buy):
Entry: A conservative entry would be to wait for a pullback around the $78,000-$80,000 range, which could act as a minor support in the current bullish setup.
Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss just below $72,000, as a break below this level could indicate a shift in trend.
Take Profit: Set a target near $85,000 initially. If bullish momentum continues, the next target would be $92,000.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Ensure a minimum risk-reward ratio of 2:1 for this trade to manage risk effectively.
Short Position (Sell):
Given the overbought conditions on both the RSI and Stochastic RSI, a short-term short position could be considered.
Entry: Consider shorting near $85,000 if the price reaches this level quickly without consolidation.
Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss above $87,000 to protect against a continued breakout.
Take Profit: Target a pullback to the $78,000 region or further down to $72,000 if bearish signals strengthen.
Risk Management:
Limit exposure to a small percentage of the portfolio per trade (e.g., 1-2%) to manage volatility.
Monitor key indicators (RSI, Stochastic, Market Cipher B) for any signs of trend exhaustion or divergence that could signal a reversal.
Market Sentiment & News Monitoring:
Keep an eye on market news that could impact Bitcoin’s price, such as regulatory announcements or macroeconomic factors.
Bitcoin’s price can be highly sensitive to sentiment-driven events, so being adaptable to changing market conditions is essential.
WTI crude oil has bearish conditions prevailingTVC:USOIL continued to decline during the Asian trading session on Monday (November 11), trading around 70.03 USD/barrel. As the storm's impact on the supply side waned, sentiment in favor of rising oil prices faded.
At the same time, the US Dollar index is strong and rising, putting pressure on WTI crude oil and global demand is expected to show no signs of recovery. Under many resonances, the positive outlook for WTI crude oil is still quite dim.
It is currently near the integer mark of $70. If it falls below again, a return to the previous low is likely. Essentially, continue to pay attention to changes in inventory data, as well as whether the US Dollar Index (Dxy) continues to exert strong pressure on oil prices.
On the daily chart, after crude oil TVC:USOIL Under pressure from the area around 72.39USD, readers should note that in previous publications, the recovery momentum has weakened. Meanwhile, moving below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and the RSI pointing down from the 50 area will be quite good signals for bearish expectations. The first target level for bearish expectations is $68.77 in the short term, ahead of $68.11 and $66.44. Currently, WTI crude oil has technical conditions that are completely inclined to the downward trend with the price channel being the long-term trend.
During the day, the downtrend of WTI crude oil will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 70 – 68.77 – 68.11USD
Resistance: 70.56 – 72.39USD
The downtrend of GOLD is still dominantUnder pressure from the strengthening of the US Dollar TVC:DXY and as markets digest the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory on US interest rate expectations, OANDA:XAUUSD fell again on Friday (November 8) after recovering. Biggest weekly drop in months.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but said it would adopt a cautious strategy for further cuts. Trump's victory has raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more slowly and in smaller amounts because of the former president's tariff policies.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the election results would have no "short-term" impact on monetary policy. So far this year, expectations of a half-basis-point interest rate cut starting in September have supported gold's record recovery.
Although OANDA:XAUUSD considered a safe haven from inflation but a possibility for higher interest rates has reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Due to Trump's tariff policy, his election has led to market speculation that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could be smaller and slower.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide advance guidance on monetary policy and left options open at future meetings. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates.
Powell acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains limited as officials aim to lower interest rates to neutral levels.
In terms of Friday's economic data, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index showed US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November and an index measuring US expectations Households on the future rose to their highest level in more than three months.
Specific data shows that the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States increased to 73.0 in November, much higher than the previous value of 70.5 and expectations of the market is 71.0.
Additionally, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's expectations index in the US rose to 78.5 in November, the highest since mid-2021.
These surveys were conducted between October 22 and November 4, before Mr. Trump was elected president of the United States.
Overall assessment of the current fundamental picture is that Gold is suffering from two main impacts as President Trump is likely to boost the USD due to his tariff policies and economic trends, this is not true. Gold's correlation with the US Dollar is beneficial. On the other hand, gold is supported by the Fed's interest rate trend, and the market's expectations of continued interest rate cuts.
However, in the short term, with Trump newly re-elected, the need to create an impression may dim the market's attention to the Fed and gold will be under more pressure from the USD's potential.
According to official data released last Thursday, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) chain of stopping gold purchases extended to the sixth month in October.
China's gold reserves reached 2,063.84 tons at the end of last month. However, the value of this gold reserve has increased thanks to the continuous increase in gold prices. As of September 30, the value of the country's gold reserves had increased to $191.47 billion, up from $182.98 billion at the end of August.
About this week's economic calendar
Next week's economic calendar is relatively light, with major economic news events including US core October CPI data on Wednesday, PPI report on Thursday and data on claims weekly unemployment claims as well as US retail sales data on Friday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak on Thursday, his first opportunity to comment on the incoming administration and central bank independence. These events will be the focus of market participants and could have an impact on the gold market.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold stopped recovering after reaching EMA21, the most recent key resistance level noted by readers in previous editions.
Currently, the weakening momentum is also limited with the closing position still above the $2,684 technical point which is the nearest horizontal support and then the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Although the downward momentum is limited, in general the trend and technical conditions are still leaning towards the possibility of a decrease in price with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and important resistance at EMA21, on the other hand, The relative strength index (RSI) is also bending downward from the 50 area, showing signs that there is still ample room for price decline ahead.
Judging from the technical chart, gold tends to decline in price and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
→Take Profit 1 2714
↨
→Take Profit 2 2709
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2635
→Take Profit 1 2646
↨
→Take Profit 2 2651
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 11 - Nov 15]Last week, after opening at 2,738 USD/oz, gold prices increased slightly to 2,749 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,643 USD/oz after Donald Trump announced his re-election as President. America. In the next trading session, gold price recovered to 2,710 USD/oz when the FED announced to continue cutting interest rates by 0.25%. However, the recovery momentum of gold prices was not sustainable, gold prices quickly dropped to 2,680 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,684 USD/oz.
The reason why Donald Trump's re-election as US President caused gold prices to plummet is because: First, investors expect that Mr. Trump will be able to intervene soon to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, tension on the Korean peninsula,... Because during his first term, Mr. Trump almost did not let any fierce fighting occur. This will reduce the haven role of gold in the eyes of investors.
Second, during the election campaign, Mr. Trump pledged to impose a 60% tax on goods imported from China and impose a 20% tax on goods imported from other countries. If Mr. Trump carries out this commitment, it will push up the prices of US consumer goods, causing inflationary pressures to return, forcing the FED to raise interest rates, helping the USD increase sharply compared to other major currencies, causing Gold price dropped sharply.
Mr. Trump's victory may continue to have a negative impact on gold prices in the short term, but this impact may gradually decrease, because Mr. Trump will officially take office early next year. Therefore, US economic data may receive more attention from investors because it directly impacts the prospect of cutting interest rates by the FED.
This week's economic calendar is quite bleak, especially when compared to this week's major events. The main economic news and events to monitor will be CPI, PPI, October retail sales, and US weekly unemployment benefit claims data. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will also give a speech next Thursday.
📌From a technical perspective, on the H4 chart, the price of gold is forming a head and shoulders pattern, however, confirmation is needed when the 2642 support zone is broken. If this price model is true, the gold price may drop to an area approaching 2,530 USD/oz. In the opposite case, the gold price will still maintain its upward momentum if the price trades above the 2710 threshold, and at the same time breaks through the peak level at 2,790 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral between 68 - 73. Bulls have no tried to have a daily close above 73 for a month and could not get it. Friday’s bear bar looks like the turning point from which we will test lower. First bear target is a daily close below 70, followed by 68 and then 67. I doubt we get below 66.8 and rather print another nested triangle.
Quote from last week:
comment: The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken.
comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 68 - 73
bull case: Bulls failed so many times below 73 now, they will probably only try again at 68 or even lower. We are making higher lows since September, so for now I expect buyers to step in above 67.5. If bulls keep it above 70, I would be surprised and we chop more between 70 and 73 until one side clearly gives up.
Invalidation is below 66.7.
bear case: Bears established strong resistance under 73 and we still have an open gap there. Their next target is to get a daily close below 70 to make much more bulls cover and then I expect the selling to accelerate down to 68 or even 67. Funny thing to watch currently is that the daily, weekly and monthly 20ema are as flat and close together like I have never seen it on markets before. This market is in absolute balance between 70 and 72. Mean reversion strategies for Oil must have made a killing in 2024.
Invalidation is above 73.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
→ Last Sunday we traded 69.49 and now we are at 70.38. Good outlook but it’s not hard to be neutral and be right about it in this market.
short term: Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral. Market only went lower through spikes, which were followed by a pullback. This is not as strong as it looks and I do think it’s likely that bears get disappointed next week. 2600 is possible but that is the lowest I can see this going for now. Any long closer to 2626 is an amazing trade. I have an open bull gap there and I highly doubt bears will be able to close it. For now bears have turned the daily 20ema into resistance and if you want higher probability on your longs, wait for a breakout above 2725.
Quote from last week:
comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price.
comment : Bear surprise because they just melted through 2700 and the bull trend line on Wednesday. Bulls retested the bull trend line and got rejected. Bears were also strong enough to keep the market below the daily 20ema and as long as that is the case, bears are in control for now. 2600 is my lower target for the bears and sideways 2600-2720 is the most likely path forward imo.
current market cycle: Best guess right now is a bigger trading range 2600-2800.
key levels: 2600 - 2800
bull case: Bulls failed at 2700 and if they don’t close a daily bar above 2720 soon, we could test down to 2600, which is where I expect many more buyers to enter the market again. We have an open bull gap, the October low and the weekly 20 ema in the price area. I do think the closer you can long to 2600, the better the trade.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears had 2 spikes down now and they could get a third before I see this going higher again. Bears know that each sell spike was followed by a bull bar, so the trend down is weak and will likely find it’s bottom soon. Bears will likely wait for another pullback higher to daily 20ema and/or bear trend line around 2710, before trying for a third leg down.
Invalidation is above 2730.
outlook last week:
short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2749 and now we are at 2694. Good outlook, market got even 50 points lower than my target. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral around 2700. If we stay below 2720, I can see a third leg down to retest 2650 or even go down to 2600/2620. Above 2730 I favor the bulls to go higher again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2600 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more.
Update: Changed 2700 to 2600, since market broke strongly below 2700 already. Trading range is still my preferred path forward, just the lower end went down 100 points.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear trend line
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures : Bullish. Breakout was strong with follow through and I have a measured move target to 6400+ and a trend line that runs through 6200. Even if we get a pullback, the first one will most likely be bought and we retest 6050. What would the bears need to make this the ultimate bull trap? One giant bear bar that closes below 5850 could do it but how likely is that? It’s absolutely reasonable to not buy into this madness and wait for bears to come around. I would be surprised if we closed 2024 above 6000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax.
comment : Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play)
bull case: With 6000 my bullish targets were met but this does not look like it’s reversing anytime soon. If bulls keep it above 5850, we are free to go up to 6100/6150. A measured move from last week up gives us 5300 and I even have a measured move target at 6500ish from the August rally but that is obviously very far fetched for now.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Bears have nothing as of now. The rally last week was strong enough to expect more upside and bears could not trade more than a bar below the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. The best they can hope for is that the bull trend line above us, holds and market does not go much above 6050. My bullish targets were met with 6000 but the market obviously broke strong enough above it. Bears have no decent reason to sell this right now.
Invalidation is above 6100.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5758 and now we are at 6025. Well, at least I was not bearish.
short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bear lines, adjusted bull trend line and added bull channel
Scinarios for $SPX till the election year ends Bearish daily candle on Friday 25th Oct but watching RSI signals its showing some support to the up-trend line from Aug low . This setup suggested continuation upward trend up to next week and election week then signal can be more clear!.
Above 5855 is bulish entry and below 8750 is bearish one.
6000 target still valid but i will recommend 5920 to take profit
for downplay 5640 is last support which is related to FED pivot cutting . good luck
Russell 2000 Futures Ascending Triangle (15m)Ascending Triangle breakout will lead to further breakouts into ATHs with price targets of:
- 2337
- 2615 (ATH)
- +++
SL would be a breakdown of the triangle and rejection to reenter the pattern, although bullish structure could remain in place
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Intraday Bearish Movement
Crude Oil may drop from the underlined blue resistance.
As a confirmation, I see an inverted cup & handle pattern on an hourly time frame.
Goals: 71.20 / 70.84
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOMC and Powell support GOLD, bearish outlook still prevailsOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading rose nearly 2% yesterday when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as market predicted, causing the US Dollar to plunge and giving gold a boost.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, while policymakers noted a "broad deterioration" in the job market. Officials voted unanimously to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Trump's presidential election victory will not directly affect monetary policy.
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have put pressure on the US dollar and bond yields, while boosting the investment appeal of non-yielding gold.
FOMC content
In their monetary policy statement, officials acknowledged the economy is growing steadily despite slowing labor market conditions. They admitted inflation was close to the Fed's 2% target but still remained slightly high.
Fed policymakers also noted that the risks to achieving their dual mandates were “roughly balanced” but acknowledged uncertainty about the economic outlook.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement said: "The Committee believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are balanced and that there is uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee concerned about the risk of achieving his dual mandate."
While policymakers noted “progress” in achieving the inflation target, they neglected to mention “becoming more confident that inflation can move steadily toward 2 percent.” sustainable”.
“Labour market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low,” the Fed statement said.
Powell said the election results would not affect decision-making in the short term and that there was flexibility in future policy direction.
At his post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell avoided giving specific guidance on the future direction of interest rates, leaving room for flexibility at the December meeting and beyond. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates. He acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains restrained as officials aim to return interest rates to neutral levels.
Regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, Powell said if the labor market weakens or slows as it approaches neutrality, the Fed could accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. However, he clarified that no final decision has been made yet.
Powell also said that in the short term, the presidential election results will not directly affect monetary policy.
General assessment
The Fed's 25 basis point cut boosted gold prices, on the other hand, Powell made very clear statements about the possibility and prospect of cutting interest rates and this is not beneficial for the US Dollar.
A very basic knowledge is that the US Dollar is controlled by the Fed and not under the power of the US President. Therefore, even in the event that Trump is elected and boosts the US Dollar, it will still be restrained by the policy of cutting interest rates. Only if Trump can completely eliminate the Fed will the US Dollar have nothing to show for it. prevent. Of course, this is without precedent, nor has any President been able to do this.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has recovered strongly from the 0.618% Fibonacci level confluence with the lower edge of the channel, it is still in a downtrend with the price channel as the short-term trend.
On the other hand, gold's upward momentum has also been limited by the EMA21 level, and it still has enough bearish conditions when the Relative Strength Index is also showing signs of folding down from the 50 level area.
If gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the potential to fall a bit further with a short-term target of around 2,684 USD rather than 2,668 USD.
However, in case gold moves above the EMA21 level it will tend to increase further to test the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Therefore, for open selling positions should be protected above EMA21 quite "strictly."
During the day, gold still has a bearish technical outlook with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,684 – 2,668USD
Resistance: 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2736 - 2734⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2740
→Take Profit 1 2729
↨
→Take Profit 2 2724
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2672
→Take Profit 1 2683
↨
→Take Profit 2 2688
GOLD established a falling structure after a sharp declineOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable after yesterday's plunge. The current gold price is about 2,660 USD/ounce. Previously on Wednesday (November 6), after Trump was elected President of the United States, investors rushed to buy US Dollar, OANDA:XAUUSD plummeted to its lowest level in 3 weeks.
As sent to readers in many articles about the election of Trump, a shock decline in gold is inevitable because Trump's "steering wheel" will support the Dollar from general economic policies.
Trump's victory will boost the dollar as he is expected to propose new tariffs that could cause a spike in inflation and cause the Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle.
Fed decision upcoming
After cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time.
The US economic calendar today (Thursday) will focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The Fed is expected to reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%.
Trump and the Fed
Trump's economic policy proposes imposing taxes, increasing the fiscal deficit, and reducing taxes. His economic advice conflicts with the Fed's anti-inflation policy. Therefore, the Fed will be forced to take a very cautious approach when loosening monetary policy.
The risk of rising inflation after Trump introduced new taxes could slow the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is very important because Trump and the Fed are becoming opposing, it is likely that Trump will destroy all previous efforts of the Fed to curb inflation.
For more than 70 years, the Federal Reserve has operated as an independent government agency in the United States, but this tradition may soon be overturned. After declaring victory on Wednesday (November 6), Donald Trump is preparing to talk about "interest rates" after taking office in January 2025, insisting his intuition is better than the Chairman of the Reserve Federal Powell.
For more than 70 years, the US central bank has operated as an independent government agency. When officials meet to decide interest rates, they will not need to consult with the president and other elected officials. That's because, as the former Fed chairman famously said, “The job of the central bank is to get rid of the drinking bowl just as the party is getting started.”
In other words, they have to make unpopular decisions that ultimately seek to bring long-term benefits to the economy. However, once President-elect Trump returns to the White House, the independence the Fed has maintained for many years could be compromised.
Trump's statement was posted on CNN: “I think the president should at least have a say. I feel very strongly,” Trump said about the Fed's interest rate decision at a press conference in August.
Trump added: “I make a lot of money, I'm very successful and I think in many situations I have better abilities than the people at the Fed or the president.”
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After yesterday's strong price drop, gold has all the technical conditions to decrease in price through the price channel. The fact that gold was sold below the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21) caused the bullish price structure to be completely broken.
Currently, gold is recovering slightly after receiving support from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, and once this level is further broken below, gold tends to continue to decline with a subsequent target level of around 2,600 USD around the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement area.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index continues to point downward after breaking the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for gold as the RSI's next target is 25. Showing that the downward momentum remains quite wide in the front.
In the near future, technically, gold has the potential to decrease in price with the price channel being the short-term trend.
As long as gold remains in the price channel and below the EMA21 level, the bearish outlook will still be prioritized, and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,640 – 2,645USD
Resistance: 2,668 – 2,684 – 2,697USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2708 - 2706⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2711
→Take Profit 1 2701
↨
→Take Profit 2 2696
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2637 - 2639⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2633
→Take Profit 1 2644
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bullish read was perfect and good for 300+ points. Now the air gets thinner again. Above 19500 longs are probably not a good trade since the downside is sub 19100 and upside probably limited to 19700 max. If market holds above the 1h 20ema tomorrow, I’ll try longs but if now, we could see some profit taking again.
comment : Hope you took the amazing longs today. Now it’s very tough to be a bull above 19500. We have big rejections from 19500 and 19600 on Wednesday and we have to assume that these prices continue to be resistance. If you want to buy this you would have to risk down to 19080 to make maybe 100 points. Not a good trade. I would rather try to scalp for 10-20 points than coming up with good trades from 19500. I will look for longs near the 30m or 1h 20ema, if they show to be support. No shorts until US starts the selling too.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18900 - 19700
bull case: Bulls want to retest 19650 and then also the ath at 19802. No reason to not get there because we have multiple measured move targets or patterns that lead there or higher. 20000 is still possible, if we get follow through buying tomorrow. If you are thinking “this can’t go higher, the german economy is a dumpster fire and all news are beyond bad blablabla” I got bad news for you. This has nothing to do with any logical reason to trade near the ath. Everyone who wanted to short this because of logical reasons already has and market is moving where the least resistance is. Call it a pain trade if you will. We have 2 years of negative GDP print and dax is going for 20000. Stop looking for reasons why markets are doing stuff. Senseless waste of time and energy.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears want to keep 19500-19650 resistance to prevent more bulls to join for 19800 or 20000. I would not look for shorts to be honest. US markets are unstoppable and you would try to short during a euphoric wave. I do think below 19400 more bulls would cover again and we can trade to 19100 again but I would only join them on strong momentum but I still favor the bulls to print 20000 rather than bears selling this down below 19200 again.
Invalidation is above 19700.
short term: Neutral. Leaning slightly bullish if we just continue higher and we have a clear support with the 30m or 1h 20ema.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: Took most off on 19500, leaving runner for 20000.
trade of the day: I called the long and long it was.
2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. All bullish targets are met for me and I will not long anything above 5980 anymore. Too early for shorts, wait for bears to come around with force. Blow-off top with 6050 or 6100 is not out of the question, so best to join on momentum or sit on hands. Next big points will be made to the downside.
comment: All my bullish targets are now met and I would not look for longs above 5980. I got one more measured move higher to 6160 but that’s just beyond insane to expect this to be hit. But so was 6000 and here we are. All bubbles burst eventually, so will this.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels: 5720 - 6013
bull case: Bulls got 6000 and now want to continue and make this look like a real breakout above the bull wedge to trap many weak traders into longing this above 6000 and make them exit liquidity. At least that’s what I see potentially happening here. No interest in longs up here or looking for arguments for bulls. This is the biggest bubble there ever was. Next big points will be made to the downside.
Invalidation is below 5720.
bear case: Bears still don’t have much. The selling will start once enough bulls begin to take profits. Market is trying again to break above a multi week bull pattern and those rarely succeed. Don’t try to be an early bear and burn your account. This could easily go 50-100 points higher before turning. Measured move down from 6000 to 5730 leads exactly to the September low, where the bull trend line started. If we hit that price in 2024, you read this here first.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term : Neutral. Scalps only for me until bears come around big time.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
Update 2024-11-07: Blow-off top happening right now and 6013 could be the end of it, I don’t know. Next comes the correction before bulls try another run at the highs during santa rally.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buy anwhere. Again. 1h 20ema not touched since Tuesday. Trends do not get stronger than this.
SELL ON USOIL As usual here is our trade for today on CRUDEOIL/CL/USOIL, you can enter by setting the same SL and TP as mine!
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Nifty Bank Index Analysis (30-Minute Chart)Key Observations:
1.Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
The chart shows a clear downtrend from around 54,497 to the recent low near 50,279.
Key retracement levels include:
23.6% Retracement : Around 53,497, indicating minor resistance.
38.2% Retracement : Near 52,882, a level that has acted as resistance multiple times.
50% Retracement : Around 52,385, which has been retested recently.
78.6% Retracement is seen at 51,180.8, a key level of support.
2.Moving Averages (MA):
The 30-minute chart shows price movement interacting with multiple MAs.
The 200-period MA is an essential indicator of trend direction and resistance/support.
Shorter MAs like the 20 and 50 periods can highlight entry points during trend reversals.
3.Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: 52,389.90 and 53,497.15. Breaking these could signal bullish momentum.
Support: 51,195.90 and a lower support at 50,279.50, which marks the recent low.
4.Trendline Channels:
The index is moving within a channel, with an upward support trendline. The price respecting these levels might suggest range-bound movement with breakout potential.
3.Volume Analysis:
Recent volume spikes align with price testing key resistance levels, hinting at possible rejection or continuation if volume sustains.
