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GOLD price slipped because investors took profitsOANDA:XAUUSD decreased during the trading session on Friday (August 2), because investors took profits after this precious metal had a sharp increase in price during the trading session. Analysts believe that gold prices may soon exceed 2,500 USD/oz because the risk of a US economic recession may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates more strongly than expected. However, gold prices have risen 1.8% this week as demand for hedging increases amid heating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and investor expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates next year. September - a move that will create a more favorable environment for gold prices. According to the latest statistics, the US job market decelerated stronger than expected and the unemployment rate increased to the highest level since October 2021. The nonfarm payrolls report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of new jobs in the month was 179,000 jobs, compared to the number of 185,000 new jobs that economists reported in a survey by the firm. Dow Jones news. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from 4.1% previously. The report caused US Treasury bond prices to increase sharply while the USD exchange rate plummeted, creating support for gold prices, helping this precious metal avoid the risk of a deep decline due to profit-taking pressure. Along with that, the USD dropped sharply, with the Dollar Index falling 1.15%, closing the week at 103.22 points. This is the lowest level of this index since March. All week, the Dollar Index decreased 1.05%. This week, an important driving force for gold prices was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's announcement on Wednesday that interest rates could be cut as soon as September if the US economy performed as expected. With the recently released gloomy employment report, many experts believe that the Fed may have to reduce interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at the September meeting, instead of 0.25 percentage points.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning. comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways. Invalidation is below 5100. bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend. Invalidation is above 5460. short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Can futures predict market movements?I was wondering if futures can predict market movement. Here's a monthly chart showing two values: * green: the difference between ES futures and SPX, divided by SPX to keep it proportional in a rising market * orange: SPX itself It shows: 1. Futures fluctuate over the 3-month cycle 2. SPX declines after peaks in the difference between ES futures and SPX - see 2001, 2008, 2018. Over-optimism? 3. But there was no peak before the decline in 2022 !? 4. Bulls want to see the difference well below zero - see 2003-04, 2001-17 and 2020-22 5. In 2023 the difference between ES futures and SPX is back to levels seen in 2000 and 2007, which preceded drops in SPX of around 46% and 52% Not trading advice. Do you own research
SP:SPX
by lavoriamo
GOLD increased strongly after FOMC, pay attention to NFPAfter the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, OANDA:XAUUSD surged toward all-time highs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that US jobs data will begin to play an important role in setting monetary policy. Economic data U.S. economic data showed private hiring slowed in July, according to ADP's latest jobs change report. Additionally, building permits improved after a decline in May, while the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which the Fed uses to measure wage inflation pressures, fell in the second quarter. year 2024. FOMC The Federal Reserve once again decided to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. This is the 8th consecutive meeting of the Federal Reserve without adjusting interest rates. Powell said deflation has “extended” and noted downside risks to the labor market. “We think the current labor market is unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure,” Powell added, saying that if they see a decline in the job market, “we will respond.” Following these comments, Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report will be a key link in the Fed's move to focus more on employment. After Powell's speech, market participants were pricing in a 70 basis point (bps) interest rate cut later this year. Fed policy statement In their monetary policy statement, Fed officials noted that "The Committee believes it would be inappropriate to lower the target range until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% sustainably and the risks associated with dual mandates have become more balanced.” Traders should pay special attention to the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data for July and nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which will be released on Thursday and Friday. Geopolitical risks escalate Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the New York Times reported on Wednesday that three Iranian officials said Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered Iran to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the leader's murder. Hamas Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran and Hamas accused Israel of carrying out the assassination. The report indicates that three Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guard, said Khamenei issued the order at an emergency meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council this morning. Wednesday. Not long ago, Iran announced that Haniyeh had been killed. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold increased significantly, reaching the target level at 2,437 USD and breaking this level, the gold price is now fully qualified to move towards an all-time peak. The current correction cycle has technically ended with the closest support for gold prices being noticed at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point. The main trend is noticed with the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as gold remains above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it still has enough room to rise in the short term with the target level being an all-time high. Meanwhile, even if gold corrects below $2,437, the decline will be limited by the confluence of the Fibonacci 0.382% and EMA21. During the day, gold's technical outlook is bullish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,437 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2475 - 2473 ⚰️SL: 2479 ⬆️TP1: 2468 ⬆️TP2: 2463 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2420 - 2422 ⚰️SL: 2416 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2432
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY continued its upward trajectory on MondayUSDJPY continued its upward trajectory on Monday, consolidating above the 156.00 handle. Should this momentum pick up later in the week, resistance appears at 158.00, followed by 160.00. It's important to exercise caution with any ascent towards these levels, considering the possibility of FX intervention by Japanese authorities to bolster the yen. Such a move could quickly send the pair into a tailspin. Alternatively, if selling pressure resurfaces and prompts the pair to reverse course, initial support is positioned at 154.65. While prices are expected to stabilize around this zone during a pullback, a breakdown could precipitate a swift decline toward 153.15. If weakness persists, attention could turn to trendline support and the 50-day simple moving average near 152.50.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY is once again approaching the 160 levelJapanese officials recently intervened in the foreign exchange market as the USD/JPY exchange rate approached the 160 level. However, this time the upward movement has been more gradual and less volatile, prompting no action from Japanese officials. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading above 157.00 and has rebounded strongly off the 50-day SMA in early May. The issue of yen weakness is likely to persist due to the significant interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, supporting the carry trade.
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY forming a downtrendThe risk of Japan raising interest rates combined with recent suspected intervention in the foreign exchange market has supported the Yen's recovery. If US second quarter GDP and June PCE data are unimpressive then OANDA:USDJPY is expected to continue to decrease. Even though S&P Global announced on the same day that the US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July rose to 55.0, the highest since April 2022, the market is still continuing to short USD/JPY ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting. On the daily chart, since OANDA:USDJPY broke below the price channel and found bearish conditions taking price activity below the EMA21 and below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it has formed a trend channel. decreasing direction. In the short term, the fact that USD/JPY remains in the price channel and is below the 0.382% Fibonacci level shows that there is still room for price decline to continue towards 151.128, the price point is the confluence of the lower edge of the price channel. and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. As long as USD/JPY remains in the price channel, the short-term trend will still be downtrend, on the other hand if USD/JPY falls below and breaks below the 0.50% Fibonacci level, a new short-term bearish cycle will be in place. opens with further targets at 148.570. During the day, the bearish outlook for USD/JPY will be highlighted by the following technical levels. Support: 151,875 – 151,128 Resistance: 153.119 – 153.685
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY trend, pay attention to BOJ decision this weekTraders are preparing for a series of market events this weekend, including policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, as well as Friday's jobs report. Six of the United States. The yen is recovering significantly mainly because of growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this week and some official yen purchases by the Bank of Japan in recent weeks helped boost the yen. As for the US Dollar, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week, but will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in September. Although the FOMC will not meet in August, Fed Chairman Powell could take advantage of the Jackson Hole meeting of central bank presidents in late August to prepare for an interest rate cut. By then, there will be more inflation data and the July jobs report released for policymakers to consider the conditions for cutting interest rates in September. Judging from the current market atmosphere, although the yield gap between the United States and Japan is expected to narrow as a result, the long-term arbitrage advantage will not be easily eroded. Because after all, the US is still the force that dominates the fluctuations of the currency market. Once the US changes its attitude towards cutting interest rates, the Japanese Yen will face many obstacles on the way to reversing its decline. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY continues to recover after receiving support from 151.875 and the recovery is temporarily limited by the technical point 154.734. It is worth noting that if USD/JPY manages to break the 154.734 level it will tend to approach the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level as the Relative Strength Index is bending upward from the oversold area, indicating room to trade. Price increases are very wide. Currently, the trend of USD/JPY is still noticed by the trend price channel and long-term pressure is noticed by EMA21. If it is sold below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, the next target level will be around 151.875. Thus, the level of 154,734 will be an important technical point for the downtrend of USD/JPY in the short term so the levels to protect open positions should be placed behind this technical level. During the day, the trend of USD/JPY will be noticed again by the following prices. Support: 153,865 – 151,875 Resistance: 154,734 – 156,850
by Xayah_trading
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Aug 4th—> Aug 9th)Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw volatility surge to levels not seen in over a year, with UST yields sliding to their lowest in months. Renewed concerns about wider conflict in the Middle East, coupled with fears of a rapidly decelerating US economy potentially leading to a recession, resulted in a forced recalibration in the markets. Let's delve into the key events that shaped this volatile week. 📈 **Market Overview:** Volatility spiked dramatically as geopolitical tensions and economic concerns dominated headlines. Renewed fears about a broader conflict in the Middle East and the possibility of a more severe recession in the US led to significant market movements. The FOMC held rates steady, disappointing those hoping for a rate cut. Chairman Powell's focus on employment risks suggested that the committee is nearing a time to reduce restrictiveness, but his message didn't align with the rapidly declining labor indicators. The week ended with a weak July employment report, following a disappointing ISM manufacturing report that spooked markets on Thursday, resulting in risk-off flows and a more dovish outlook towards the Jackson Hole Symposium. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📉 S&P 500: Down by 2% - 📉 Dow Jones: Down by 2.1% - 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 3.4% **Economic Indicators:** US Treasury yields dropped amid a slew of softer economic readings, with the yield curve steepening significantly: - **2-10 Year Spread:** Rose above -10 bps as futures markets and investment houses now foresee a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September and potentially more than 100 bps in cuts by the end of 2024. - **JOLTS Job Openings:** Showed the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels. - **ADP Employment Data:** Missed estimates, with annual pay growth slowing to its lowest level in years. - **Weekly Initial Jobless Claims:** Hit a 1-year high at 249K. - **ISM Manufacturing:** Missed estimates across the board, with the employment component registering its weakest reading since June 2020. - **July Employment Report:** Payrolls, hours worked, and wages all missed estimates, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, triggering the Sahm recession indicator for the first time since the pandemic. **Commodity Prices:** - **Crude Prices:** Rose early in the week due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran but sold off later on rising recession fears. - **Gold Prices:** Climbed ~10% through Thursday due to a weaker US dollar but fell sharply after the Friday employment report. - **Bitcoin:** Also sold off sharply after the employment report. **Corporate News:** - **AI and Consumer Spending:** The themes of AI investment and weakening consumer spending dominated earnings reports. - **Nvidia:** Criticized by Elliott Management, suggesting AI is overhyped and in a bubble. - **Arm Holdings and Intel:** Reinforced concerns with Arm guiding lower and Intel announcing a fresh turnaround plan after poor results. - **Apple and Meta:** Reported better quarterly results, affirming significant capex growth for AI in the coming year. - **Consumer Sector:** - **McDonald’s:** Missed earnings and reported negative same-store sales, highlighting competition for value meals and deal-seeking consumers. - **Amazon:** Echoed similar sentiments about deal-seeking consumers, with capex increases tied to AI spending. - **Procter & Gamble:** Reported mixed results, noting market challenges expected to persist until the second half of next year, particularly in China.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears made another amazing trade selling above 2440 and since this was the third time, they are confident they can push the market lower to at least 2300 again. The selling was strong enough for a second leg and right now a measured move would bring us exactly to 2300. Coincidences huh. Every time someone tells you technical analysis does not work, just nod and make money. It’s not worth the discussion. comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months. current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months key levels: 2300 - 2536 bull case: Bulls showed weakness during the week before but somehow managed to turn the market around this week on bad looking daily bars. Unusual to say the least. I do think every time the patterns looks bad, it’s more due to the other side stepping aside than one being particularly strong. Anyhow, Market retested the ath again and printed a lower high 14 points lower. It’s the 5th time the bulls tried and failed. Do they get more or will they give up now? I don’t know. I thought the drop that started 2 weeks ago from the ath was decent enough to bring us to 2300 again but they failed at a higher low. So we are in a triangle and in the middle of it. Market is neutral between 2450 - 2490. Invalidation is below 2290. bear case: Not much to add because market is neutral. Bears need follow through on Monday to test the bull trend line below at around 2425. There is not much more to read out of this at the moment. Things change when bulls get a strong close above 2536 or bears print lower lows below 2390 again. Invalidation is above 2536. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode continues as long as the bear channel holds. Look for shorts near the top and take profits at new lows. → Last Sunday we traded 2381 and now we are at 2469. The bear channel broke on Tuesday and my invalidation was on point but my outlook was not. Always know your risk and start every trade from a risk point of view and now from a profit point of view. You will most likely never hit 90% winners consistently so get used to losers and don’t let them influence you in a bad way. short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed bearish pattern and added the triangle we are in
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
BTC - Watch for this correction Pattern to form This is the same chart I’ve been presenting for a few months now. Bitcoin has been showing interest in correlating with DXY’s major breakdown to sweep these Uber low zones. So long as we are respecting these trendlines, I’m convinced that Bitcoin will form a pattern approximate to these levels: 58,700 to 34,500 34,500 retrace up to 42,000 to 45,000 Rejection at this 42,000 to 45,000 zone indicated a drop to the ultra lows - 6,000 to 10,000 So far the price action and chart formation is pointing in this direction. I advise at least to keep an open mind, and understand that while most will expect bitcoin to go to zero. A sweep of these lows is just clearing liquidity prior to a 200k plus Bitcoin over the next 1-2 years. If this happens, buy 6-10k level We should see volatility the remainder of this Sunday and into Monday
Short
by DickDandy
1
#202432 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Climactic selling below the possible bear channel. I do think a bounce is more likely than another strong bear day on Monday/Tuesday. Can go a bit lower to 5270 but we will touch that upper bear channel again or at least the daily 20ema. Bounce could go as high as 5500 again. Best case for bears would be to stay below 5450. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. comment: Everything about this possible new bear trend I already wrote above, no new stuff to add here. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered on 2024-07-17. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600. On the weekly or monthly chart, the selloff during July/August will be the first leg of this bear trend. key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Bulls got a huge bounce last week for 169 points but the bears sold it violently again for a 269 point drop. Not stuff that happens during bull trends. Bulls are running for the exits and I do think market won’t get above 5600 anytime soon again. Bulls best hope now is to go sideways and turn the market neutral again. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. → Last Sunday we traded 5499 and now we are at 5376. Market started neutral and had big two sided trading, so outlook was good. short term: Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024. medium-long term: 5300 over the next weeks (will likely happen in August). Afterwards another pullback before we go down to 5000/5100 in 2024. current swing trade: Out of all shorts which I had since 5700. Will load again on anything above 5500. chart update: Bull trend line now clearly broken but bear channel stays for now. Removed bear gap #2. Whenever you see many lines in an area on my charts, it means that much happened there and it’s an area of importance. Expect pullbacks/bounces in those areas. Adjusted the 50% pb from 5601 to the recent low 5331.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
7
#BTC scalp setup short you can use leverage# hello folks , hope you’re doing well here is a wonderful scalp entry BTC just reached an area of strong rejection and cleared internal liquidity in LTF and now his is aiming the external one down bellow the previous low. #You can use leverage at your own responsability and according to your risk management plan Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC) a revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the reasoning logic of the most powerful trading algorithms that control all financial markets . very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps of the checklist until you reach the target ********* WAKE-UP NEO =) follow the white rabbit********
Short
by LEETRADERS
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [29 July - 02 August]This week, the international gold price increased from 2,383 USD/oz to close to 2,432 in the first 2 trading sessions of the week, but then continuously decreased, at one point down to 2,353 USD/oz. After that, gold prices recovered and closed the week at 2,387 USD/oz. Gold prices decreased in the last sessions of this week as investors took profits from profitable positions, because they are still concerned about short-term risks when the Central Bank of China has still temporarily stopped buying gold in the past 2 months. Next week, there are two factors that are likely to have a strong impact on gold prices: the FED's July meeting taking place on Thursday and the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report being released on Friday. In particular, the FED will definitely keep interest rates at the current level. However, what the market is interested in is whether FED Chairman Jerome Powell will change his tone on monetary policy direction. With the recently released US economic data, it is likely that the FED Chairman will still support the plan to cut interest rates in September. This may support gold prices next week. Technically, on the H4 chart, you need to pay attention to two resistance levels, with support established around 2350, while resistance is at 2430. Next week, if the support level 2350 is broken, it is likely Gold price falls to the 2300 level. If the basic information supports the gold price, we need to see the gold price exceed 2430 to maintain the upward momentum. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,300 – 2,323 – 2,350USD Resistance: 2,475 – 2,430USD 📌The short-term trading plan for next week will be to sell around 2431, buy around 2323. Then continue to wait to sell around 2475, wait to buy around 2300.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Middle East escalates, GOLD recovery limited by 2,400 USDWhen tensions in the Middle East suddenly escalated over the weekend, after the opening of the Asian trading session on Monday (July 29), spot gold prices jumped by 15 USD in the short term and gold prices sometimes exceeded past the mark of 2,400 USD/ounce. On July 27, a rocket attack hit a soccer field in Megidar Shams, a town in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers playing soccer. 44 others were injured. This was Israel's worst civilian loss since Hamas launched attacks on villages and military bases in southern Israel from the Gaza Strip last October. On the night of July 28, local time, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement saying that after a 4-hour meeting, the Israeli government's Security Cabinet meeting ended late at night on the 28th and the meeting authorized Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Prime Minister of Israel. Despite recent volatility, gold maintains its underlying bias toward solid gains as markets increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by the end of the quarter. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market has fully priced in a September rate cut. The latest inflation data won't stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in September. The Fed is increasingly expected to lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September, at least at its meeting on this week. While the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting will be the main economic event this week, some attention will also be directed to the U.S. Department of Labor due to July nonfarm payrolls data. announced on Friday. In addition to cooling inflation, expectations of slowing growth in the US labor market will cause the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before the end of the year. The Fed is not the only central bank holding a monetary policy meeting this week. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, with market expectations that the central bank will also cut interest rates. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting later on Tuesday. Notable economic data and events Tuesday: US consumer confidence; JOLTS Jobs; Monetary policy decisions of the Bank of Japan Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Payrolls; US Pending Home Sales, Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision; US weekly unemployment claims, ISM manufacturing PMI Friday: US nonfarm payrolls Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has recovered, temporary gains are still limited by the original price level of 2,400 USD, which is also noted as an important target resistance level. For the gold price to have adequate conditions for upside, it needs to break above the $2,400 technical level and the next targeted target level at $2,408 in the short term, more so than the $2,437 price point. of Fibonacci retracement 0.236%. Temporarily, gold is not yet qualified to form a complete bullish cycle, while once gold falls below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level it will tend to retest the 0.618% Fibonacci level, and a Once the $2,362 level is broken below, a new bearish cycle is likely with a target around $2,329. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans more to the downside with conditions for a new bullish cycle noted above. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,385 – 2,378 – 2,362USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2414 - 2412 ⚰️SL: 2418 ⬆️TP1: 2407 ⬆️TP2: 2402 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2377 - 2379 ⚰️SL: 2373 ⬆️TP1: 2384 ⬆️TP2: 2389
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has more technical pressure, ready for major eventsOn Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day meeting and announce its interest rate decision. The market generally believes that this meeting will not make a decision to cut interest rates but will provide guidance for an interest rate cut in September. The fact that the Fed will not cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting has been fully priced in by the market, so interest rate guidance in September and the end of the year will be the focus of this FOMC meeting. Traders prepare for a series of market events, in addition to a midweek policy decision from the Federal Reserve, decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, as well as the nonfarm payrolls report. The US economy on Friday will also have a significant impact on the general market and the gold market in particular. In Asian markets on July 30, OANDA:XAUUSD recovered from the $2,378 level noted by readers in the weekly edition, but overall it needs to recover much more strongly to be able to get the conditions for Expectations of a new bullish cycle. The point worth noting is that the original price level of 2,400 USD will be the nearest resistance and is also very important. If gold breaks and maintains above this level, it will have enough conditions to technically increase in price. The target level after breaking $2,400 is $2,408 in the short term and more likely is $2,437. Meanwhile, currently, the gold price still has a more bearish position with initial resistance from EMA21 and the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level at 2,385 USD. Once gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will open a new downtrend with the target level then being around 2,329USD. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the oversold level, showing that there is still room to decline. During the day, the current position is heavily tilted to the downside with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,378 – 2,362USD Resistance: 2,385 – 2,390 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2419 - 2417 ⚰️SL: 2423 ⬆️TP1: 2412 ⬆️TP2: 2407 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2351 - 2353 ⚰️SL: 2347 ⬆️TP1: 2358 ⬆️TP2: 2363
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD fell slightly after reaching initial target, FOMC, PowellOANDA:XAUUSD decreased slightly after a significant recovery period, at the Asian trading session on July 31, gold decreased slightly from the Fibonacci level of 0.382% to 2,405USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of about 0.25% on the day. Middle East News On the evening of July 30 local time, an Israeli drone attacked a Hezbollah target in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. It is known that the drone fired 3 missiles, causing a building to collapse. Currently, attacks in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital have left 3 people dead and 74 others injured. The Israeli military announced it killed a top Hezbollah commander in an airstrike in Beirut on Tuesday in retaliation for a cross-border rocket attack three days ago. As sent to readers in the weekly edition, new points are emerging in the Middle East situation, and escalating geopolitical risks are always a potential motivating support for shelter demand. safe. Pay attention to the FOMC and Jerome Powell The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting ends Wednesday's trading session, with markets expecting the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged but could signal policy easing as early as September. At 01:00 Hanoi time on Thursday, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision, at 01:30 the same day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. Investors will need to closely scrutinize the Fed's policy statement and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for any information that supports expectations of the first rate cut in September. Previously, on July 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a dovish signal during an interview at an event at the Economic Club of Washington. Powell said second-quarter economic data gives policymakers more confidence that inflation is falling toward the Fed's 2% target. The comments could pave the way for interest rate cuts in the near future. At that time, Powell indicated that he would not wait until inflation reached the 2% target to cut interest rates, because the impact of monetary policy has a lag, and keeping interest rates too high for a long time will cause problems. Excessive inhibition for the economy. He further explained that if we wait until inflation reaches the 2% target to cut interest rates, we may have to wait too long because the tightening monetary policy is currently being applied, or the current tightening policy will still continue. impact and can push the inflation rate below 2%. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has surpassed the original price level of 2,400 USD, after reaching the initial target level, please pay attention to the weekly publication at 2,408 USD, the price point of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382%, and the upward momentum. The price of gold is also limited by this level. In the immediate future, keeping above the original price of 2,400 USD will be a positive signal for gold. But for gold prices to qualify for a longer bull run it needs to break above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level then target around $2,437. In the short term, gold will be supported by the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the lower edge of the price channel. During the day, the trend of gold prices is providing the conditions for a bullish outlook and notable technical points are listed as follows. Support: 2,400 – 2,390 – 2,385USD Resistance: 2,408 – 2,437USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432 ⚰️SL: 2438 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2422 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2387 - 2389 ⚰️SL: 2383 ⬆️TP1: 2394 ⬆️TP2: 2399
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Yesterday I was neutral until one side clearly gains control again and boi did the bears deliver today. 600 point drop from Wednesday high and a close below 18200. This is the biggest bear bar for many months and will be part of W1/leg1 of the new bear trend. We will most likely make new lows below 17800 next week. We have a nice looking bear channel that leads to the July low, from where we can expect the W2/two legged correction to form a broader channel which we can grind down to at least 17000 over the next weeks. If bulls somehow manage to break above 18400 again, I am wrong and we continue inside the trading range which we have been in for 5 months now. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) / probably the new bear trend has started today. key levels: 17800 - 18400 bull case: Yesterday I wrote that bulls could not get a single close above 18600 and market can test one direction/price only so much before it tries the opposite. Bulls gave up today and now we test the lows. The best bulls can hope for is to keep it above 17800 and continue inside the trading range. Given that we just had many earnings releases and the negative GDP print, I absolutely favor the bears. Invalidation is below 17800. bear case: Bears closed below the recent 33 bars and demonstrated strength. This selling will most likely get another leg down but now the primary goal for the bears is to keep any pullback shallow and preferably below 18300 to create two big bear gaps. Bear gap #2 will get smaller tomorrow but it should stay open, otherwise bears might fumble it again. Invalidation is above 18300. short term: full bear mode for 17844 or lower. There I expect a pullback to form a broader channel we will grind down over the next months. Buckle up. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Had shorts from 18700 and added 18900. Took most off today and leaving a runner for 17844. trade of the day: Short since bar 7, no ifs or buts. Bar closed below the previous 35 bars and at it’s low. Perfect signal and entry bar.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
WTI crude oil recovered nearly 5%, supported but still limitedTVC:USOIL rebounded sharply nearly 5% on Wednesday, far from the nearly 2-month low reached on Tuesday after the assassination of the leader of Hamas in Iran, investors fear the conflict in the Middle East could widen and the volume US crude oil inventories boosted. The Federal Reserve sent the market a signal in September to cut interest rates, and the US Dollar index dropped sharply, also creating momentum for oil prices. Government data showed US crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels last week, while the market expected a decline of 1.1 million barrels. Crude oil inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since January 2021. The news that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran has increased tensions in the Middle East overnight. The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% on Wednesday, which also supported oil prices. The Fed kept interest rates steady but left open the possibility of reducing borrowing costs at its next meeting in September. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ alliance consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia will meet today (Thursday). The alliance is expected to maintain current production policies and lift some output cuts starting in October. During this trading day, investors also need to pay attention to deeper market developments regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, pay attention to new news on the geopolitical situation, pay attention to the US ISM manufacturing PMI for July and initial unemployment numbers. US claims for the week ending July 27. On the daily chart of WTI crude oil, despite a very strong recovery since the lower edge of the confluence price channel with the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level, WTI crude oil is currently limited in its recovery by the Fibonacci 0.50%. Meanwhile, the bearish structure is still unaffected with the price channel as the main trend and pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as WTI crude oil maintains price activity within the channel and below Ema21, the technical outlook remains bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 77.10 – 75.07USD Resistance: 78.52 – 79.94USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading