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Factors supporting WTI crude oil, weekly outlook analysisThis week, the crude oil market, especially WTI crude oil, experienced a series of fluctuations, ultimately ending the weekend trading session with a slight decrease in WTI crude oil futures prices. Despite pressure from a stronger US Dollar, growing US oil demand and falling fuel inventories supported crude markets, while geopolitical tensions added to market uncertainty. The strength of the US Dollar has had a significant impact on the crude oil market. The dollar hit a seven-week high against major currencies, making dollar-denominated crude more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially curbing oil demand. Global. However, strong US economic activity, especially business activity hitting a 26-month high in June, has provided some support to oil demand. WTI crude oil increased 3.23% this week to 80.52 USD/barrel. Brent crude oil increased 2.53% this week to $84.18/barrel. Supply and demand dynamics: Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that total petroleum product supply increased significantly last week to 21.1 million barrels per day, indicating that the US oil market is tightening. The arrival of the summer driving season, along with falling inventories, has pushed U.S. gasoline futures higher, reflecting growing demand. Geopolitical factors: Geopolitical tensions, especially the conflict between Israel and Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, have added pressure on crude oil markets. These events have raised concerns about supply disruptions, which could pressure oil prices. General opinion: Rising oil demand over the summer and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to be key factors that continue to drive crude oil markets, especially WTI crude. In addition, readers also need to pay attention to outstanding developments in the Fed's monetary policy because it will also affect oil prices because crude oil is priced in US Dollars. Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is gaining important upside potential with an uptrend formed and noticed by the price channel. On the other hand, WTI crude oil is still stable above the 0.382% Fibonacci level, showing the possibility that it will continue towards the next Fibonacci level at 0.236% in the near future. Along with that is support from the EMA21 moving average. In the short term, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel, above the EMA21, and the RSI has not reached overbought levels, it still has a bullish technical outlook. Notable levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 80.04 – 77.70USD Resistance: 82.94USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: The bull trend line around 5430 held and market bounced for 150 points since yesterday. The 50% pb from this recent sell off was 5578 and today’s high was 5588, while closing at 5556. Tells you that market is respecting the 50% pb and could not close the month above it, which is good for the bears. Where does this leave us going into August? Absolutely neutral imo. Bear trend line is broken and the big bull trend line held. Bulls want a retest of 5700 and bears to stay below the 50% pb and sell off again, because at this angle they have a decent channel downwards to 5000. My channel on the chart was drawn last week. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. key levels: 5400 - 5600 bull case: Bulls had the expected bounce and yesterday I said the selloff after hours was most likely a bear trap. So it was and bull want to keep the momentum going and closing the bear gap to 5640 next. If they can close that, they will most likely also retest 5700 but as of now, they could not close above 5600 and are under the 50% pullback. Had they closed the month above 5600, I would be much more bullish going into August. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears kept it below the 50% pb, around the daily ema and technically bulls just got a breakout retest of 5560. The selling into today’s close was strong enough to not expect an easy melt up through 5600 tomorrow. Bears also have going for them, that with this lower high, they have formed a proper channel, which could lead us to 5000 over the next months. 5570ish is the current price and the worst place to trade. Can go either direction and I will wait for strong momentum to either side. Invalidation is above 5600. short term: Neutral af. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-07-31 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: July is behind us, so let’s take a look at the daily chart since the weekly and monthly do not help in any way, analysing this. For dax it’s easy today because we absolutely have no Idea when it wants to go where, since my calculated 50% of this range is 18520 and market closed July at 18608. Absolutely neutral. We know for sure that the recent bull trend is over and we are in a trading range. We are in the middle of the triangle on the daily chart and you have to play the range until it’s clearly broken. Does the weekly or monthly chart tell us anything different? Absolutely not. The daily 20ema is completely flat and we just have to wait for one side to gain control and make new highs or new lows. Bullish above 18800 and bearish below 18100. Going into August I do expect more volatility and even if Bulls get another ath, odds are great that we will make new lows below 17800 over the next 2 months. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls made lower highs this week but could not get one close above 18600. They are weak as the bears and that is why we are mostly moving sideways. Bulls tried enough to get above 18700 by now and I do think they will give up tomorrow/Friday and we test 18300 or lower again. They would need a strong move above 18800 for higher prices. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Bears are weak too but at least they mostly keep it below 18600. They need to start producing lower lows again and test back to 18300. I do think odds favor the bears over the next weeks for lower lows but as of now, market is in absolute balance. First target for the bears tomorrow is a 1h close below 18500. Invalidation is above 18700. short term: neutral. Bullish above 18700 and bearish below 18500. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. —unchanged
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
GOLD rose 1% after US inflation dataGold prices increased 1% on Friday (July 26), as US Government bond yields fell due to optimism that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates in September, after data showed that inflation in the US increased slightly in June. At the end of the trading session on July 26, the spot gold contract increased 1% to 2,388.05 USD/oz, after hitting the lowest level since July 9, 2024 on July 25. Gold futures contracts added 1.2% to 2,381 USD/oz. US economic data was mixed to weaker today, showing inflationary pressures and weakening economic activity, paving the way for the Fed to lower interest rates twice this year. Fed policymakers on July 26 got fresh evidence of progress in the fight against inflation, raising expectations that they will use next week's meeting to signal a rate cut. Rates start in September. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals. The US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis said the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in the US in June inched up 0.1% compared to the previous month, after remaining unchanged in May. After the inflation data, the 10-year US Government bond yield fell to its lowest level in a week. Meanwhile, physical demand in India, the world's second largest consumer, received a boost when the country reduced import taxes on precious metals earlier this week. Gold prices in India also surged to its highest level in a decade this week.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD fell more than 1%, the bullish structure was threatenedEarly in the Asian trading session on July 25, OANDA:XAUUSD decreased more than 1%, as of the time the article was completed, gold was trading at 2,372USD, equivalent to a decrease of 25Dollar during the day. Former New York Fed President Dudley (who enjoys perpetual voting rights on the FOMC and is known as “the Federal Reserve's third in command”) wrote: I have long been in the “hold interest” camp. high yield for longer periods of time. But times have changed and things have changed now so I changed my mind. The Fed should cut interest rates, preferably at its interest rate meeting next week. Gold traders are now awaiting second-quarter US GDP data today (Thursday), as well as the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, as this is the gauge Fed's preferred inflation. Reuters quoted sources as saying on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan may discuss whether to raise interest rates at its July 30-31 meeting and announce a plan to nearly halve its bond purchases. votes in the next few years. Although gold has been supported by news from India which has reduced import duties on gold and silver from 15% to 6%. But the main reason why gold prices are still being sold off is partly due to profit-taking motivation, and partly because the possibility of Trump's election will support the Dollar. Trump is known as the President with a gay tariff stance. harshly. The main factor currently supporting gold prices is market expectations that the Federal Reserve may actually decide to cut interest rates before September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is trading at a very dangerous price position for bullish expectations. As the current price activity falls below most important supports from the trending price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). Given its current position, gold is still likely to continue to sell off more towards the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, which is also the nearest support level. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing down but still quite far from the oversold point, showing that the room for price reduction is still quite comfortable. Gold can only have enough conditions to increase in price when it surpasses the area of ​​2,400 - 2,390 USD, which is also considered the current pressure area. During the day, gold has conditions to fall further with notable prices that will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,362USD Resistance: 2,385 – 2,390 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2415 - 2413 ⚰️SL: 2419 ⬆️TP1: 2408 ⬆️TP2: 2403 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2349 - 2351 ⚰️SL: 2345 ⬆️TP1: 2356 ⬆️TP2: 2361
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-07-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Down, up, down up. Today was up where open was almost the exact low of the day. Market stalled around 18550 and it’s critical for the bears that it stays a lower high below 18650. Bears need to break the bull trend line for lower prices. Shorting above 18550 and buying 18500 was king today. Can not be anything but neutral going into tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart) key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls made around 100 points from eu open to close. Looks more like a leg in a trading range than strong buying. Bulls want a higher high above 18657 but I highly doubt that they get it. Market is in breakout mode. Watch the triangle on the daily chart. There are 2 potential bear trend lines above which can act as magnets. 18600 and 18660ish. I do think that if bulls can break above 18660 again, they can test the bear trend line from the ath around 18800. Invalidation is below 18480. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 18500 but bulls poked enough that they stepped aside and shorted above 18550 again. Bears need to keep this a lower high or risk a breakout out of this triangle. Their first target is a break below the bull trend line below 18480. Invalidation is above 18560. short term: neutral. Bullish above 18600 and bearish below 18480. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. —unchanged trade of the day: Long since EU open or shorting above 18550 and buying 18500. Clear support and resistance today but tbh, not a fun day to trade this.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-07-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Gold had a huge bull day and my line in the sand for bears was 2436. Market now broke above it 2 times and the buying into US close was strong enough for a second leg which could bring us above 2480 again. Still a trading range on the daily chart and anything above 2300 is good for the bulls. Probably another try at printing 2500 over the next days. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2500 bull case: Bulls want a new ath and all the stops too close above it. 2500 would be a nice round number to reach. After that I don’t have anything for the bulls. It’s a trading range since April and such big trading ranges happen before the final flag and this one here is probably it. I would not bet on another strong bull trend above 2500. Above was written last week and is valid as ever. Bulls do not want to drop below the 1h 20ema again or the chop continues. They want the momentum continuing and another strong break above 2460 for the second leg up. Invalidation is below 2440. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 2440 but market made higher lows and on the strong buying at bar 13, they stepped aside enough to let the market rip into US close. I don’t think many bears want to battle between 2450 and 2480, so I expect this becoming a quick move up before they see value in shorting again. Below 2440 I am wrong and bears showing strength again. Invalidation is above 2460. short term: Bullish af again. Want to see a proper channel form, that we can grind to 2480 or 2500. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Tricky. Bar 10 was strong enough to expect more upside but the pullback afterwards on bar 11+12 was deep enough to trap many traders out. Bar 13 was the long to be in while it formed but tricky in any case.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
USDJPY took a breather on ThursdayFollowing a robust rally earlier in the week, USDJPY took a breather on Thursday, displaying a lack of clear direction but maintaining a steady position above 155.00. If gains resume, resistance looms at 158.00 and 160.00 thereafter. Traders, however, must view movements towards these levels with caution, as Tokyo may step in again to support the yen, which could precipitate a swift reversal. On the flip side, if the bullish scenario fails to materialize and prices begin to head lower, the first support to keep an eye on appears at 154.65. On continued weakness, all eyes will be on 153.15, followed by 152.30-152.00, an important technical range, where the 50-day simple moving average aligns with a medium-term ascending trendline.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY surged to multi-decade highs around 154.80Earlier in the week, USDJPY surged to multi-decade highs around 154.80 before retracing slightly from those lofty levels as the weekend approached. If the downward reversal gains traction in the upcoming trading sessions, support looms at 153.20 and 152.00 thereafter, with 150.80 possibly becoming a focal point if these price thresholds are breached. On the flip side, if USDJPY resumes its climb, resistance is likely to materialize near 154.80, followed by 156.00, the upper boundary of a short-term rising channel in place since December of last year. While the pair maintains a bullish outlook, it's essential to proceed with caution given the overbought market conditions and the increasing probability of FX intervention by the Japanese government.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY rebounded from Fib0.618% levelOn Friday (July 5), data from the US Department of Labor showed that US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 jobs in June. The May data was revised sharply downward to show an increase of 218,000 jobs, compared to the previous value of 272,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, slightly above expectations of 4.0%. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed US jobs growth slowed slightly in June while the unemployment rate rose, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates capacity in September. Data-wise it is not favorable for the USD and this creates some pressure on USD/JPY. But the general picture is that USD/JPY still tends to increase fundamentally because the interest rate difference between the Fed and BOJ is still very large. On the daily chart, after OANDA:USDJPY correction since testing the edge on the price channel (a), the correction also received support from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. Note to readers in the previous issue. The 0.618% Fibonacci level acts as short-term support, while the EMA21 moving average and trend price channel (a) act as main supports and are also the main trend of USD/JPY. In the short term, as long as USD/JPY remains above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will remain supported and the possibility of a downside correction will remain limited and the target level in the near term is aimed at the 0.786% Fibonacci level. In case USD/JPY falls below 160.204 it has room to correct a bit more with EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.50% as targets. However, during the day the uptrend of USD/JPY will still be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 160,204 – 159,896 Resistance: 161,951 – 162,464
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered strongly by IndiaOANDA:XAUUSD Strong recovery, Gold price reached 2,418 USD/ounce during the Asian trading session on July 24. Spot gold ended a four-session losing streak as India's move to cut import taxes on gold and silver is expected to boost global gold demand. India plans to significantly reduce import duties on gold and silver The Indian government on Tuesday announced plans to reduce import tax on gold and silver from 15% to 6%. The move could boost retail demand and help curb smuggling in India. “To increase the domestic value addition of gold and precious metal jewellery, I propose to reduce customs duty on gold and precious metals,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her budget speech on Tuesday. silver down 6%.” Increased gold demand in India could push up global gold prices because India is the world's second largest gold consumer. In addition to news from India, falling US bond interest rates is also a positive signal for gold. Gold prices recovered, due to falling US Treasury bond yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.5 basis points to 4.24%, which is a positive signal for gold. Traders are awaiting key US economic data, including June inflation and Q2 GDP, to gauge the Fed's next move. According to CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 96.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Since gold does not earn interest, cutting interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby making gold more attractive to investors. Pay attention to important US data The focus this week will be on US second-quarter GDP data on Thursday and the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, as this is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. A weaker PCE is expected to be positive for gold, mainly because the market will be more confident that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, up to now, gold is having its second day of recovery since profit-taking pressure caused gold prices to adjust to the important support area around 2,390 - 2,400 USD. Attention readers before. Gold prices also achieved the initial target recovery level at the $2,416 area noted in yesterday's publication and with the current momentum, the next target level will be around $2,430. If gold breaks the 2,430 USD level, the bullish outlook will continue to open up with a new cycle and the subsequent target level of about 2,465 USD, the price point of the 0.328% Fibonacci extension. As long as gold remains above EMA21 and within the trend price channel the main trend remains bullish and the bullish structure is not affected, pullbacks do not take gold price below EMA21 then it should only be considered as short-term adjustments. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,420 – 2,430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432 ⚰️SL: 2438 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2422 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2372 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2379 ⬆️TP2: 2384
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
2024-07-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Lower low again after market formed a perfect double top with Globex high, which was couple of ticks above Globex open. Market is going down but barely. Bears taking profits at new lows and wait for market to go higher again before they sell it. 1h 20ema is a roller coaster. Need to trade small, have wide stops and wait for decent pullbacks. current market cycle: trending trading range or broad bear channel, whatever you prefer to call it key levels: 74 - 78 bull case: Bulls buying new lows and making money. That’s about it. They are too weak to push to make new highs and bears will probably stop at bigger resistance which I think is below 74. Invalid below 73. bear case: Bears in control but they are taking profits at new lows and thats why the channel down is so broad and we have two sided trading. Play the bear channel until it’s clearly broken. Do not try to be a rocket scientist here and start with macro schmackro stuff about oil. It’s going down, look for shorts. Be Forest Gump and not Cathie Wood. Invalid above 78. short term: Bearish. Play the channel. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: Still short since 82.69. trade of the day: Selling the double top Globex and EU high at 77.6. Had to get short latest at bar 42 but better 41 since it was also a head & shoulders or the top of the trading range. More than enough reasons to sell.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-07-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Decent selling by the bears today. I expect follow through tomorrow but mostly sideways markets going into US close tomorrow. Earnings is a gamble imo and I don’t do that. I’m playing the bear channel and will be flat once market stalls. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls also bought new lows here and scalped. They bounced at the 50% pb from last week and now they want to go mostly sideways to break out of the bear channel. I don’t think they want to die on that hill. They had a decent pullback last week and know that bears want at least 18300 again. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears did ok today but closed barely below Friday’s close. They want to continue the channel down to 18300 but I don’t think many traders want to have big positions going into tomorrow’s US close given the earnings releases. Play the channel until it breaks. Invalidation is above 18560. short term: Bearish as long as the bear channel holds. 1. Target below is 18300 medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. —unchanged trade of the day: Trading range from Globex until US opened. Best trades were shorts from EU open bar 28 for gap close and can exit bar 37. Next best short was bar 52, follow through selling after a two legged pullback right below the 15m 20ema.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 28th —>Aug 2nd)**DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast** --- Hello Investors! 🌟 This week was marked by significant economic and political developments, driving volatility in global stock markets. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈 **Market Overview:** The week began with a surprise rate cut by China’s PBOC, but this was quickly overshadowed by President Biden’s announcement that he was dropping out of the race. The Democratic Party swiftly rallied around Kamala Harris, with endorsements pouring in from state governors and, ultimately, the Obamas. By the end of the week, Harris appeared to have secured the nomination. The political developments contributed to a 'Trump-trade' sentiment, with small-cap value stocks continuing to outperform mega-cap technology shares. The cool June CPI and subsequent soft data points have also fueled expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year, underpinning this market rotation. The US yield curve steepened notably, with the 2-10 year spread popping above -15 bps, while the VIX rose sharply through Thursday. A letter from former NY Fed President Dudley may have increased investors’ expectations for a Fed rate cut. The Bank of Canada cut rates for the second straight meeting, while global PMI readings indicated some softening, particularly outside the services sector. Pulte’s home orders fell short of analyst expectations, and June existing home sales missed targets despite rising supply levels. Richmond Fed data was weak, and several major industrial and chemical companies cut their outlooks. June PCE data indicated “further progress” for the Fed, echoing concerns about discretionary spending and a softening consumer pushing back against price hikes. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📉 S&P 500: Down by 0.8% - 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 0.8% - 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 2.1% - 📈 Russell 2000: Up by 3.3% **Economic Indicators:** - **US Yield Curve:** Steepened significantly with the 2-10 year spread popping above -15 bps. - **June Existing Home Sales:** Missed expectations despite rising supply levels. - **Richmond Fed Data:** Indicated economic weakness. - **June PCE Data:** Showed progress in cooling inflation. - **Bitcoin Prices:** Climbed ~5% ahead of Former President Trump’s appearance at a crypto conference. - **Dollar and Yen:** The dollar remained steady, while the Yen rose amid speculation of a potential BOJ rate hike. **Corporate News:** - **Google and Tesla:** Earnings reports did little to curtail volatility. Tesla missed estimates and Google’s YouTube ad revenues fell short, leading to a decline in AI enthusiasm as Google's AI monetization efforts didn't meet investor expectations. - **Ford Motor:** Shares tumbled after a significant earnings miss, with the company continuing to lose money on each EV it produces. - **3M:** Shares surged after posting a big earnings beat, despite noting softness in consumer discretionary demand and mixed industrial end markets. **Looking Ahead:** Next week will feature several key events: - **Fed Rate Decision** - **Powell Press Conference** - **U.S. Jobs Report** - **Earnings Reports:** Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Meta ( NASDAQ:META ), Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ), ExxonMobil ( NYSE:XOM ), Chevron ( NYSE:CVX ), Boeing ( NYSE:BA ), and McDonald's ( NYSE:MCD ). As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟 ### **Market Forecast (Updated 07/28/2024)** **SPX** - TSLA reported poorly on their earnings + weak guidance from GOOGL drove the market down. Money continued to Rotate into Small Caps from tech sector last week. With FOMC this week, we could potentially see a bottom in the market by Friday as we are pretty oversold at this point. Next resistance $5505 and $5653 Next support $5423 and 5285 Weekly Sentiment = Oversold **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY-Currently, the market is looking at 2-3 rate cuts by the end of the year, But we should get a clear picture from FOMC chair this week on exactly what they are thinking. JPY is also starting to gain strength, Both of these things could weaken the DXY. Next resistance $104.78 Support $104 Sentiment = Crossover to downside **Put to call Ratio: 1.15—> 1.28 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 49—>45** ! (prod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com) **BTC:** Crypto market has been pretty strong and testing resistance, Trump spoke very highly of crypto as well but he also flip-flops a lot. The key thing to watch here is the Dollar index, if that continues to drop, we could see btc test new highs. However, we have a huge trendline at 68k and if we can break over it, it could start a bigger bull run as well. Google our "DIYWALLST 2024 Crypto Forecast" for our favorite alt coins.
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
The market focuses on GDP, PCE, GOLD recovers around $2,400OANDA:XAUUSD fell below its original price of $2,400 on Monday (July 22) as the dollar strengthened slightly, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while markets waited for more data US economists and Federal Reserve officials commented this week to clarify the interest rate cut schedule. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 97.4% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 5.8%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 91.7% and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 2. 4%. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold, and are an important support for gold prices. Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he would withdraw from the US presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate in the November election. But it forced a reassessment of risks in the markets. financial markets, affecting gold prices on Monday. As noted to readers in yesterday's edition, if Trump is re-elected, gold will be under certain pressure in the short term because Trump has a harsh tariff stance. But there will not be fundamental pressure because gold will still be supported by the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) gradual interest rate cuts. Markets are currently focused on second-quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) data released on Thursday, as well as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold fell to levels around the original price point of $2,400, an area that will be noted as a very important support area. The area around 2,400USD is a very important support area because this is the confluence of many technical indicators from EMA21, the lower edge of the medium-term rising price channel and the 0.236% Fibonacci level. If gold can recover to maintain price activity above its original price of $2,400, then overall the bullish structure has not been broken and there is still upside potential. The upward momentum will become clearer if gold can bring price activity above 2,430 USD, at which point the target level will be around 2,465 USD in the short term. As long as gold remains above EMA21 and within the price channel, the medium-term technical outlook remains bullish, which means long protection levels should be placed behind EMA21. During the day, the prospect of recovery with the main uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,416 – 2,430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2434 - 2432 ⚰️SL: 2438 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2422 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2372 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2379 ⬆️TP2: 2384
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears made another amazing trade selling above 2440 and since this was the third time, they are confident they can push the market lower to at least 2300 again. The selling was strong enough for a second leg and right now a measured move would bring us exactly to 2300. Coincidences huh. Every time someone tells you technical analysis does not work, just nod and make money. It’s not worth the discussion. comment: Bears got their second leg down and the buying has been lackluster at best. Leaning heavily bearish until bulls trade strongly above the daily 20ema again. It’s a tight channel down and already much stronger than the previous sell offs from > 2400. As long as the channel holds, I’m full bear. No deeper analysis needed. current market cycle: trading range on the daily chart but small bear trend inside, which could bring us to 2300. key levels: 2300 - 2488 bull case: Bulls are very weak. The pullbacks they printed so far were doji’s and inside bars. Until they can print a big bull bar closing on it’s high, they have no reasonable arguments for a reversal. 2300 is much more likely than a strong breakout above the bear channel. Expecting more buyers to step in around 2300/2310. Invalidation is below 2290. bear case: Increased volume on the sell off and every rip is sold. Play the channel as long as it holds, bears have every argument on their side. The odds that we break below 2300 this time are decent, since market now tried 3 times to hit 2500 and market will only try one thing so many times until it does the opposite. Invalidation is above 2436. outlook last week: “ short term: Full bear mode if we close below 2360 over the next 1-2 days. At least down to 2300 but decent chance we drop lower this time and start a new bear trend.” → Last Sunday we traded 2399 and now we are at 2381. Low of the week was 2352, outlook was good for 47. short term: Full bear mode continues as long as the bear channel holds. Look for shorts near the top and take profits at new lows. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None. Will short on weakness on Monday. chart update: Added bear channel.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Increased volume on the down move is telling you that this one is the real one. Over the next months, market will test down to the bull trend line from 2023-10, which is also where the weekly 20ema is. Friday we stopped around the smaller bull trend line and it’s a decent place to expect some pullback before we be on our way to 5400/5450 comment: Low of the week was 5432 and I wrote 5400/5450, +121 points. For most letters/rooms/subscriptions you have to pay good money for those outlooks, if you even get them this accurate. Hope you made some. current market cycle: Bull trap triggered. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600 key levels: 5400-5600 bull case: Lower lows and lower highs. Bulls stopped the selloff where they had to and their last bull trend line before only the one from the covid low remains. I do think the two legged correction is good for now for the bears and a bounce is due. Since both sides have reasonable arguments, I think it will come down to earnings. If the mag7 report good and their outlook stays good, we bounce higher. If they fail or some fail, we move sideways. Slightly favoring a higher bounce to form a proper channel downwards. Decent chance bulls might close both bear gaps. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below. Invalidation is above 5600. outlook last week: short term: Bearish but also expecting a pullback first. Same as dax. → Last Sunday we traded 5553 and now we are at 5499. Low was 5432. Bearish was right. Pullback was right. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move. medium-long term: First target for this section was 5450 and that will be hit over the next days or 2 weeks. After that is 5300 over the next 3-8 weeks and 5000 could be hit again in 2024. —update: 5450 was hit mid July. Next comes 5300 over the next 2-6 weeks. current swing trade: Took profits on the swing short from 5700. Will add again above 5550. chart update: Added my preferred bear channel for the next weeks.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls and bears alike knew the recent high at 18900 was a bad buy and they tried to save their bull case on Tuesday but once Wednesday came around and 18700ish was resistance the third time, they gave and we only produced lower highs since. Best bulls can hope for now is to keep it above 18000 and bounce at the weekly 20ema which is exactly right under Friday’s close and that the bull trend line from April will hold. Market expects a pullback and bulls want it to go above 18600, which increases the odds of this being a continuation of the triangle, rather than a new bear trend. comment: Bulls got to 18774, which was way too high for it being a pullback in a bear trend. Market is in a descending triangle where the support is 18200ish. Since we are in the middle of it, worst place to trade. Both sides have reasonable arguments for Monday but this pattern will break next week to one side or the other. Given the many upcoming earnings, I won’t predict them, nor gamble on a trade before market is showing the direction. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 5 month trading range. —update: 5 months now instead of 4. Will break soon. key levels: small range 18000 / 18900 bull case: Bulls had a two legged pullback which got higher than the bears would have liked, which increased the odds of a continuation of the trading range. No side is strong enough to keep the market above or below the daily 20ema, so we are neutral af. You don’t need to analyse it further. Save your mental capacity on other markets and wait for a clear breakout. Invalidation is below 18147. bear case: Bears lost control on Tuesday where they allowed the market to go 200 points above the daily 20ema. They got a strong reversal from above 18700 down to 18200 but there they took profits again and the range continues. 18500 is a bad spot for everyone. Maybe strong bears will respect the minor trend line we formed and trade back down from here to retest the lows but that’s a weak argument at best. The other bear trend line around 18400 is a more reasonable expectation. If we get there, I expect bears to show strength again, just as bulls will probably buy 18200 again. Below 18200 comes 18000 and 17840 in play. Invalidation is above 18785. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode. Will try to catch the bounces as good as one can but the big money will be made to the downside over the next months. Short term we will see a bounce that should stay below 18500/18600 and from there I expect another big leg down to 17800. → Last Sunday we traded 18298 and now we are at 18535. High of the week was 18774 and the low was 18200. Said we get a bounce to 18500/18600 and the high was 18774. Almost perfect outlook since the downside was not as deep but we will get there in the next days/weeks. short term: Neutral. Can see this going both ways and I don’t gamble. No bigger interest in buying this but rather waiting for weakness above 18600 to short again. medium-long term: Time to update this section. I called for 17000 for couple of months now and I said, any short around or above 19000 is amazing. The highs held and now we will see how low we can get in 2024. 17100 is still my first bigger target and should be reached in 2024. At this point it does not make sense to call lower targets. —unchanged since 2024-07 current swing trade: Took some profits on my shorts at 18300 and would add above 18600 again. Chart update: Added minor bear trend lines and adjusted the lower bull trend line but I don’t think market is respecting it that much. Support around 18200 and a descending triangle is more likely.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
Joe Biden, gives up re-election, USD is temporarily supportedUS President Joe Biden on Sunday abandoned his difficult re-election bid under growing pressure from members of his Democratic Party and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him as party candidate on November 11. Biden will face Republican candidate Trump in the presidential race in the November election. If officially nominated, Harris, 59, will become the first black female presidential candidate of the major parties in American history. “Kamala Harris, as a potential Democratic presidential candidate, her policy ideas cover many areas such as tech regulation, big tech companies, climate and energy. quality as well as artificial intelligence.” If former US President Trump wins a second term, Trump's tariff stance will have a major impact on the market (Trump is known as the US President with a harsh tariff stance, demonstrated by his term in office). Trump had a trade competition with China, which had a deep impact on the market and major fluctuations continuously occurred. During this period, the admin also had to monitor each status line of "this President, very tired".) 1. If Trump is elected, precious metal gold and silver may come under temporary pressure as the Dollar strengthens from Trump's harsh tariff stance. In this context, the Dollar should be considered a safe haven and continue to be promoted. 2. Even if Trump is elected, gold prices are still unlikely to sustainably decline or, more accurately, have a long-term fundamental downward trend by central banks such as the Federal Reserve and Banks The European Central Bank, along with many other major Central Banks, will enter a cycle of cutting interest rates. For this orientation, gold may be temporarily under pressure because the possibility of Trump being elected is very high. According to Bloomberg, Trump's success rate of returning to the White House is more feasible than most other candidates. . In a context where Joe Biden, the representative of the Democratic Party, has given up his difficult re-election effort. However, this impact is not a long-term impact because the Fed's interest rates will have to be cut gradually, and of course this is beneficial for gold prices in the medium and long term. The gold price target will continue to be focused on the $2,500 mark, and technical analysis and more market information readers can review in the weekly publication linked below.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
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