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2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Big down, big up, big confusion. Market closed 60 points above where it opened but still a bear day. Since we broke below the shallow bull trend line on the daily chart, this is no longer a triangle and bears increased their chances of making new lows below 17844 over the next days. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18200 - 18700 bull case: Bulls bought the new lows and rallied for 270 points. Tells you that bears are fine with taking profits at new lows and bulls still in btfd mode. Bulls want a second leg up, like they did on Monday & Tuesday. Measured move up would bring us exactly to the high of the week 18774. Invalidation is below 18200. bear case: Bears need to trap bulls buying the dip there under 18500 or they risk another high above 18700. Since bears closed the us session below the 1h 20ema, I give the better odds to the bears for follow through selling below 18200. A weekly close below 18000 would be amazing for the bears. Invalidation is above 18500. short term: Neutral until I see follow through selling below 18350. Both sides have reasonable arguments and the market was two sided all week, with big swings in both directions. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. Update: 400 points in profit, will take most off around 18000-18100 and see where Market wants to go. trade of the day: Tricky day again. The bing selling began 3 a.m. CET so long before EU opened. I joined the bears at around 7 a.m. and caught a 80 point ripper down. There was no bullish price action and just selling going on. Then came the hard part below 18300. It was obvious market was trying to bottom and to exit shorts but taking the long was hard. You have to be really mentally flexible to take the other side after such a strong move. Trade of the day was the long bar 13. Bar 9 was strong enough but bar 10 did not trade above it. Bar 11 + 12 were good signal bars and 13 was the follow through. That was good for 200 points. I missed it.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: A trading range after a strong move is more often than not the final flag. Yesterday we formed a late trading range and bulls had a strong move up today, which makes me believe that the sell into the close was the final flag, rather the start of another leg down. Market is at huge support with the bull trend line from October and no one expects it to break on the first try. Can we dip below before a stronger pullback? Sure. Odds still favor the bulls for a pullback, at least to the 4h again, like the bull spike today. I have drawn 2 potential paths forward but as always, wait for the market to show its direction and not guess it and most certainly do not trade before it’s happening. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped. Enjoy the ride down. key levels: 5400 - 5560 bull case: Bulls got a strong bounce to the 4h 20ema today. Tomorrow they want to defend the bull trend line from 2023-10 and keep the market above 5500, which is still max bullish if you look at higher tf. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are in control of the market and in full STR mode. The bounce today was strong but bears reversed it even harder. They are trading below all important ema and their only target for the rest of the month is to break the big bull trend line, which would put bulls in panic mode. Such important trend lines mostly have to be poked at a couple of times before market can break through. If they step aside for another pullback higher, they need to keep it below 5533 or market will test 5560/5570 again. Invalidation is above 5533. short term: Slightly bullish with a clear invalidation price of 5430. Odds slightly favor the bulls for a second leg up and go sideways around 5500. If bears manage to break below the bull trend line, next support is at 5300. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Closed my swing short from 5700 at 5450. I expect a pullback and will short it again. trade of the day: Buying the opening reversal from 5432. On the 5m chart bears just quickly gave up and market made 97 up. Very strong 3 bar reversal and difficult to take after the 40 point drop from the open. Taking the short afterwards was probably easier and better. Market turned at the 4h 20ema and only spent 1h at around 5520 before bears printed a strong 15m bear bar which was strong enough to go short as it closed. On the chart it was bar 13
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Copper (HG) - Look for Longs?While the decline in copper persists, @HG is nearing areas of previous demand on intermediate-term timeframes. Specficially, we will be watching the industrial metal's action between the prices of 4.1130-4.0605 (with hypothetical stop lower @ 4.0250). Given the current momentum and potential add'l downside per larger timeframes, we recommend watching for micro-TF trend violation/reversal confirm signals before establishing positions. This idea is bolstered by a backdrop more broadly of metals having pulled back and a AMEX:USD that looks vulnerable vs. physical assets over the longer-term. Of course "Dr. Copper" is more closely linked to the global economy vs. GC (which we like better), but price, ultimately, remains undefeated + copper will become a value buy at some point... Godspeed, JHart
COMEX:HG1!Long
by LionHart_Trading
GOLD adjusted down significantly, the basic trend did not changeAlthough market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September continued to increase, gold prices remained very volatile and had a significant correction session. Gold prices hit a record high of $2,483 on Wednesday amid positive interest rate cut expectations, but failed to hold on to gains as investors booked profits. This, along with the increasing possibility of former US President Donald Trump being elected, has stimulated capital flows into the US Dollar, creating some additional pressure, causing gold to adjust downward. US jobs data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed more people than expected applying for unemployment benefits, indicating slowing economic growth. Coupled with a flurry of data last week showing inflation moving toward the Fed's 2% target, the data is starting to attract policymakers' attention. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed a larger-than-expected increase in first-time unemployment claims in the United States last week, but there were no significant changes in the markets. labor. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that in the week ending July 13, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased to 243,000, higher than The expected number is 230,000 and also exceeds 223,000 last week. The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was 636 lots traded immediately within one minute from 07:03 to 07:04 Hanoi time on July 19, with a total contract value of 155 million USD. Overall, the basic picture has not changed much with positive factors still supporting the possibility of gold price increases. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD As noted to readers in yesterday's edition, gold has suffered a downward correction after the Relative Strength Index operated in the overbought area, indicating that the room for price increases is no longer too great. large and require adjustments after a long period of price increases. Currently, gold is also operating quite low but does not affect the main trend of price increase with the price channel as the short-term trend and long-term trend. In the short term, the fact that gold can recover to maintain above the technical level of 2,430 USD will be a good sign for it. On the other hand, if gold recovers back above $2,449, it will mark the end of the downward adjustment cycle. During the day, gold could continue to correct further once it is sold below $2,420 with a subsequent downside target of around $2,400. The downward correction cycle from the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 2,420 – 2,400USD Resistance: 2,430 – 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2466 - 2464 ⚰️SL: 2470 ⬆️TP1: 2459 ⬆️TP2: 2454 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2409 - 2411 ⚰️SL: 2405 ⬆️TP1: 2416 ⬆️TP2: 2421
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovers after correcting from record level, trend stabilizOANDA:XAUUSD revised down from record highs but growing optimism about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September and a weaker US Dollar still stimulated gold demand. On the economic front, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey showed the U.S. economy growing at a modest pace entering the third quarter. The latest edition of the “Beige Book” was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond based on information collected on or before July 8. Wage growth was moderate or modest in most jurisdictions, but the rate of price growth is generally moderate. There was little change in consumer spending and almost every jurisdiction cited retailers cutting prices or consumers buying only essentials. Although gold prices have eased from record highs but remain at record highs, expectations of a Fed rate cut getting closer and yields continuing to gradually decline, coupled with a weaker US Dollar, remain. will continue to be the main support factor for gold prices. Many Fed policymakers said they were increasingly confident that price increases were on track and returning to the Fed's target level after stronger-than-expected price data earlier this year. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the time for the Fed to cut interest rates is "near," but uncertainty about the direction of the economy makes it unclear when short-term borrowing costs might fall . According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the market is currently pricing in a 98.1% chance that the US will cut interest rates in September. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold and put pressure on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold had a downward correction yesterday to retest the support area that readers noticed in the previous issue around the 2,449 USD area, the gold price has recovered and continues to stabilize with the trend. increase. In the short term, the technical structure does not show any notable resistance, while the Relative Strength Index is also approaching the overbought area, showing that the room for price increases is no longer too large. The fact that the room for price increases is no longer too wide, pushing gold prices to enter the accumulation phase after the recent strong increase cycle. However, the main trend for gold prices will still be an uptrend with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 2,449 – 2,431USD Resistance: 2,483USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2474 - 2472 ⚰️SL: 2477 ⬆️TP1: 2467 ⬆️TP2: 2462 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2429 - 2431 ⚰️SL: 2425 ⬆️TP1: 2436 ⬆️TP2: 2441
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 22 - July 26]During the last weekend, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD decreased due to the strengthening of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities in the market. The gold market once again ended this week in a key price position, testing key support at the original price point of $2,400/ounce. Before that, the price of gold hit a record high this past week, largely due to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. XAUUSD is now closely correlated with interest rate expectations, and gold's rise to a record high coincides with expectations that the Federal Reserve will launch its easing cycle in September. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a more than 98.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of precious metals, especially Non-Yield Gold. yield. The only thing that could derail gold's fundamental uptrend is a surprise rise in inflation, which would make investors question the possibility of interest rate cuts. However, in reality, recent data along with comments from the Fed all show that the scenario of a sudden increase in inflation approaching the Fed's 2% target is very unlikely. Investors will have to wait until Friday for the release of the June Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index. Last month, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed inflation rising 2.6%. In addition to key inflation data, the market will first focus on US gross domestic product (GDP) data. In terms of central bank operations, the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Economists believe weaker inflation data will create room for the central bank to cut interest rates. Economic data to watch next week Tuesday: Existing home sales Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy decision, PMI preview, new home sales Thursday: GDP growth, durable goods orders, weekly unemployment claims Friday: Core PCE, personal income and expenses Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has corrected down for three consecutive sessions since its all-time high last week, and now closes weekly at a very important support point, the original price of $2,400. The level of 2,400USD is both the original price and the horizontal support and the bottom edge of the short-term trend price channel. Once gold continues to be sold below the original price of 2,400 USD, it will risk falling further with the target level then at the 21-day moving average (EMA21). However, with the closing position right at 2,400 USD, the short-term technical uptrend from the still undetermined price channel has been broken. Meanwhile, the long-term trend of gold is still completely tilted towards the possibility of price increase. In the near future, gold has conditions that lean towards an uptrend with main support from EMA21 and the price channel while the short-term trend and short-term support level is at 2,400USD. The recovery target in the near term will initially be noticed at $2,431. As long as gold remains above EMA21, price drops should only be considered corrective, profit-taking moves in the market without changing the main trend. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,400 – 2,397 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,431USD 📌The short-term trading plan for next week will first consider buying around 2350, selling around 2450.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: On such a strong bear day, there is no need for any analysis on lower time frames. The 15m 20ema held since Globex and selling anywhere could have made you a lot of money today. I updated my daily chart to show the most reasonable next targets. The old ath was 18223. So another 1000 drop for a retest of that. Just let that sink in. Rough outlook for the next months from me is the following, bounce 19200ish for 19600 but staying inside the bear channel. Touch of the 2023-10 bull trend line around 19000 where we probably see a bigger bounce and more sideways movement. After that is pure bull slaughter down to 18000 and from there I will calculate new targets but the bull trend line from the 2020 and 2023 will most likely be hit in 2025. current market cycle: climactic bull trend with overshoots is done. Market is in a deeper pullback which is a bear trend on a smaller tf but we will most likely transition into a trading range first before we enter the big trading range on the monthly chart again. key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls see the 3 pushes down inside a tight bear channel on the daily chart. The last pullback was good for 400 points and they want to rally from the 50% pb of the bull trend that started in April and which is most likely over. We are also trading right at the weekly 20ema. They are technically inside the bull channel which lead to the ath, so their bull premise is still valid. Odds favor the bulls for a pullback at 19200. Pullback targets above are 19600-19700 Invalidation is below 18900. bear case: Bears are back with a vengeance. Very tight bear channel down with huge bear bars closing on their lows. Bears are in full control of the market and their next target is to trade back below 19000 and hit the bull trend line from October. They just reached the 50% pb, weekly 20ema and the lower bear channel line. 3 good reasons to take profits by the bears and let the market have a pullback, so they can short higher again. Invalidation is above 21000. short term: Neutral. I think we can hit 18800 and/or the bull trend line. Can we go deeper? Not likely but anything can happen. Odds favor the bulls for a bouce. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: Short since 20800. Update: closed the swing short at 19250. Hope you made some. trade of the day: Sell anywhere and go away until US close.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
BONK TRADE SETUPHello Folks !! We can see BONK in a lower trend for the last two days. Currently, it is trading at .0283 and still in a downtrend. We can see immediate support between .274 to .0279. We will wait till the price touches this point and put p [roper SL. IN case the channel breaks upward, we can see short term movement of around 20% and 40-50% in the long run with targets between .032 to .038 Until then, stay tuned and trade with caution, ensuring strict STOPLOSSES!! This is not financial advice, please do your own research before investing, as we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits. Please like, share, and comment on this idea if you liked it.
Long
by ScramblerG
USDJPY with an uptrend, conditions towards the peak of the eraThe Bank of Japan said last Friday that it would begin reducing its bond purchases, but the reduction remains limited. So, from a fundamental perspective, this is not stimulating the Japanese yen at all. Show transactions OANDA:USDJPY is still watching for signs of how the Japanese government will intervene to support the yen to continue its appreciation. Meanwhile, the USD will still be strong because the market is pricing the Fed will only cut interest rates once this year, and Fed officials are sending hawkish messages about "high interest rates for a while". longer". Technically, the bullish structure of OANDA:USDJPY there are no changes compared to previous publications sent to you. Temporarily, USD/JPY is limited by the technical level of 158.011 and once USD/JPY maintains above this level, it will provide conditions for USD/JPY to continue to increase towards its all-time peak. Regarding the overall picture, USD/JPY still has the main trend of increasing prices with the price channel (a) being noticed as the main trend and the EMA21 moving average as short-term support. As long as USD/JPY is still trading with the above support levels, the bullish trend should not change and each pullback should only be considered a technical correction. USD/JPY's uptrend will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 157,224 – 156,657 Resistance: 158.011 – 160.236
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY adjusted sharply downTaking advantage of the weak US consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday to push the US Dollar down in price on the foreign exchange market, the Japanese government intervened, causing USD/JPY to plummet. The amount of intervention by the Japanese government that day amounted to 3.57 trillion yen (22.43 billion USD), less than 3 months since the last intervention. Friday's move in USD/JPY could be the result of continued intervention. It seems that the Bank of Japan will take advantage of good opportunities from time to time (for example, when major US economic data is released and the market takes advantage of the dollar's devaluation trend) to conduct unusual intervention. to achieve goals quickly, with accurate results and save costs. However, to substantively change the trend of the Yen, it still depends on whether the Bank of Japan can resolutely take some major measures, such as stopping bond purchases or significantly increasing interest rates at the meeting. interest rate meeting at the end of July, which could completely reverse the yen's downtrend. If the Japanese government remains cautious about the major issues mentioned above, it will be difficult for the Yen to recover. On the daily chart, although USDJPY has moderated significantly, it still does not technically qualify for a bearish trend. Specifically, USD/JPY's decline was limited by the technical level of 157.224 and the 0.382% Fibonacci extension; On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the oversold level but is curving upward, showing that the downward momentum and room for price declines is not too much. However, a drop below the EMA21 also creates pressure on the price increase, while the nearest resistance level is noticed at the 0.50% Fibonacci level confluence with the lower edge of the price channel (a). If USD/JPY can recover above the 0.50% Fibonacci it will have the potential for a further recovery to the EMA21 area. As long as USD/JPY is not sold below 157 it still has room to rise technically, in case it is sold below 157 it will be more bearish with 155 as the next target, So the point to protect the long position should be placed behind the level 157. Looking ahead, the technical trend of USD/JPY still offers upside with notable technical points listed as follows. Support: 157.224 – 157.209 – 157 Resistance: 158.616 – 160.204
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes pulled back as expected and laid out in my weekly post yesterday. Although a bit stronger and faster than I expected. Dax for example already reached it’s 50% pullback to the tick and bears want this to be the high and reverse hard from here. Commodities - Gold is also trying to find a bottom after the big rejection. Doji on the day so no deeper analysis needed. Set alarms when market breaks above or below today’s range. Oil bears tried the follow through selling but bulls actually closed the day above the minor bear trend line support again. So bears are not as strong as they could be. Still lower lows and lower highs. Bitcoin - BTFD in full force, Doji on the daily. No deeper analysis, bulls are in control, please read my weekly post. dax futures comment: 18600 is my line in the sand for bears. If they keep it below, odds are good, that we are in a bigger down move. If bulls continue up, it’s a triangle on the daily chart and we can expect more sideways movement. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18300 - 18700 bull case: Good bounce by the bulls today and they closed at the highs. They expect follow through buying tomorrow and if they can a 1h close above 18600, many bears will give up on a new bear trend and stronger selling. Market did not have a candle close below the 15m 20ema today. Find those ema early in the day and grind them up or down. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears stopped the market at the absolute last point to keep the sell off thesis alive. 50% pb was hit to the tick. They need a strong overnight reversal or early in EU session. So probably more upside above 18620 and down again below 18500. Invalidation is above 18620ish. short term: Full bear mode to hell. Shorter shorty term is neutral as stated above. Bullish scalping above 18620 and full bear below 18500 again. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged trade of the day: Long bar 32. Strong breakout of prev range and market never looked back.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
2024-07-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not too much to add after the dax analysis. 50% pb for sp500 is 5632, so market has some room higher. Daily 20ema is around 5600 and I do think the odds of the market turning down again to test the lows or make lower lows, is higher than going above 5630. current market cycle: Trading range until 5500 is clearly broken. But bubble has popped and is now deflating. Enjoy the ride down. key levels: 5540 - 5620 bull case: Bulls want at least the 50% pb and as long as they stay above the bull trend line 5575ish, their bull case is valid. One market broke above the 1h 20ema, it could not get a close below it and that’s strength by the bulls. They need follow through tomorrow and probably some force to get above 5632. That price is the 50% pb and also the breakout price, so two good reasons to go there again. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Bears need a proper channel for more downside, so they stepped aside enough today for bulls to get a bounce. Their target now is to stay below 5632 and not let the bulls gain too much hope again. No deeper analysis today, please see my weekly post. Invalidation is above 5660. short term: Neutral until market found the lower high and trades back down. Should be around 5630. If the minor bull trend line is broken, bearish to 5500 and below 5500 is hell. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”. trade of the day: Bulls made more money today. Buying anywhere near the minor bull trend line or at the 15m 20ema was good enough. Buying bar 45 or latest 47 was a very good trade.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD recovers from $2,400, Powell continues to supportOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after correcting and testing support at the $2,400 base price point on Monday. At the time this article was completed, gold was trading at 2,430USD/oz, an increase equivalent to 0.31% of more than 7Dollar on the day. Gold price rose for a third straight week but fell short of its daily high as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell kept his promise and did not provide expected guidance. Gold opened slightly lower on Monday after Trump's assassination over the weekend increased his chances of winning the November election. This gave slight support to the US Dollar, although concerns have eased and gold continued its upward trend, pushing gold prices to a multi-week high of $2,439/ounce. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a dovish signal on Monday. Powell said second-quarter economic data gives policymakers more confidence that inflation is falling toward the Fed's 2% target. The comments could pave the way for interest rate cuts in the near future. Powell said he will not wait until inflation reaches the 2% target to cut interest rates, because the impact of monetary policy has a lag, and keeping interest rates too high for too long will limit them too much. economic growth rate. He further explained that if we wait until inflation reaches the 2% target to cut interest rates, we may have to wait too long because the currently applied tightening monetary policy will still have an impact and can push up interest rates. Inflation is below 2%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly declined to give guidance on when the Fed might cut interest rates, but acknowledged that significant progress had been made in controlling inflation. She noted growing confidence in getting closer to the 2% inflation target and said more information was needed before making a decision on interest rates. She noted that she had seen progress toward her goal, but had not yet achieved it. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0.0%, the probability of cutting interest rates for the first time is about 99.7%. Lower interest rates will be significantly beneficial for precious metals, especially non-yielding gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold adjusted and retested the original price area of ​​2,400 USD, which was the support that readers noticed in the publication last week, gold has recovered and currently maintains its price activity around 2,430 USD. by the time the article is completed. In terms of technical structure, there are not many changes compared to the previous issue sent to you with most of the technical conditions supporting the possibility of a price increase. The main trend of gold price is noticed by the price channel, as long as gold remains above EMA21, the technical outlook will still be bullish. Heading towards all-time highs, gold prices currently have no technical resistance ahead, and the nearest notable support levels remain around the $2,400 raw price. This means that, technically, very large fluctuations can continue to occur, but the upward price trend will not change. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,418 – 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2401 - 2399 ⚰️SL: 2405 ⬆️TP1: 2394 ⬆️TP2: 2389 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD continues to refresh all-time highs, with no resistance"Dovish" comments by Federal Reserve officials reinforced market expectations of a US interest rate cut in September. Investors flocked to gold, the safe-haven asset and Gold prices increased further and continuously reached new all-time records. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Monday that recent inflation data has reinforced policymakers' confidence that price pressures are on track to remain low, reassuring markets. market that a US interest rate cut will take place in September. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly also said "confidence is rising" and inflation is moving toward the U.S. central bank's 2% target. Lower US interest rates are putting pressure on the dollar and bond yields, increasing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Gold prices are up more than 19% this year after rising 13% in 2023. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 6.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0.0%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 93.3%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 6, 7%. According to a recent report from ANZ Bank, it is worth noting that India's gold demand could help prolong the current bull run and push gold prices even higher. India is the world's second largest gold market. In the first 5 months of 2024, India's gold imports increased by 26% over the same period last year, with 230 tons of gold flowing into the country. This is despite prices reaching record highs. There are many reasons why gold has become the top choice at the present time, basically, readers can re-read recent publications via the link below to get more information. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has continued to make new all-time highs and looking ahead there is currently no technical resistance left, with all price structures still tilted strongly to the upside. Currently, the closest support is the all-time high broken yesterday, the $2,449 level is notable support which if gold corrects below this level it is likely to retest the $2,431 area or more 2,400USD but the uptrend is unchanged. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also operating around the overbought area, showing that there is not too much room for price increases. A good signal for the downward adjustment momentum is that the RSI is bent downward. from the 80% area. Overall, even though downward corrections may occur, the bullish structure and uptrend are unchanged, as long as gold remains within the price channel, and EMA21. However, we (short-term traders) will have to face a very volatile market, the only thing that can make trading better is to be patient and control the intensity/appropriate trading volume to adapt to the current market context. Gold's uptrend will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,449 – 2,431USD Resistance: (No resistance level found) 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499 ⚰️SL: 2505 ⬆️TP1: 2494 ⬆️TP2: 2489 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2417 - 2419 ⚰️SL: 2413 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2429
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3 key factors push GBPUSD to continue its bullish outlookSince the beginning of this year, the pound has been one of the best performing currencies. There are three factors that are driving sterling's strength and these are likely to continue to support gains in sterling over the medium term. 1. Interest rate difference Interest rate differentials are the main fundamental driver of currencies and are currently having a positive impact on GBP. The real interest rate in the UK is 3.25%, compared to 2.5% in the US. Rising real interest rates in the UK relative to the US are currently driving GBP/USD strength and this is likely to strengthen further. Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 90% and the market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates more than twice this year. For comparison, the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in August is 57% and the market expects the UK to cut interest rates less than twice this year. 2. Forecasting economic growth and inflation The UK's growth outlook has improved in recent weeks. After flat GDP growth in April, GDP growth in May was 0.4%, contrary to the 0.2% growth forecast. It also reduces the possibility of the Bank of England cutting interest rates, because it is unlikely that the Bank of England cuts interest rates while raising GDP and CPI estimates. The Bank of England may wait until the new government's first budget before cutting interest rates, which could also benefit sterling, especially as high interest rates do not appear to be a deterrent the UK's continued recovery since last year, when the economy entered recession. 3. Political risks Political risks that have limited sterling's rise in recent years are likely to decline as the Labor government enacts pro-growth policies and builds closer ties with the EU. This will not boost sterling in the short term and its impact on the currency is difficult to predict. However, with the UK now looking politically stable, especially compared to France and the US, sterling is likely to attract "safe haven" funds in the coming months. OANDA:GBPUSD technical outlook analysis Temporarily, GBP/USD's upside momentum is being limited by the upper edge of the price channel and the 1.29959 technical level but in the overall picture, GBP/USD has no technical factors bringing pressure. However, the Relative Strength Index is folding at the overbought level, showing that the room for growth is no longer strong and it is possible that GBP/USD will face some corrections without affecting the trend. main increase. In the short term, the nearest support level is at the 0.618% Fibonacci extension point, which if GBP/USD falls below this level it will tend to correct downwards to test the price point of 1.28924 in the short term. On the other hand, once GBP/USD breaks the 1.29959 resistance level it will be eligible for a new bullish cycle with the target level then at 1.30519 price points of the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. During the day, the bullish outlook for GBP/USD remains unchanged with a correction to be noticed by the following price points. Support: 1.29582 – 1.28924 Resistance: 1.29959 – 1.30519
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD accelerated to the upside this past weekGBPUSD accelerated to the upside this past week, briefly reaching its highest level in nearly two months at one point before the weekend. If the rally continues and gains momentum in the coming sessions, resistance is likely to appear at 1.2720, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline. Further strength could then direct focus toward the 1.2800 mark. On the flip side, if the upward impetus fades and sellers regain control of the market, confluence support extending from 1.2615 to 1.2585 could offer stability in case of a pullback. If tested, traders should watch closely for price reaction, keeping in mind that a breakdown could give way to a move towards the 200-day simple moving average hovering around 1.2540.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD rallied early on TuesdayGBP/USD rallied early on Tuesday, briefly reaching its highest point since March 21, but gains were short-lived as sellers quickly pushed the pair down from the psychological 1.2800 level, driving it towards 1.2755. If this ceiling holds in the near term, bulls may start bailing, creating the right conditions for a move toward 1.2700. Further weakness could shift focus to 1.2635. Conversely, if buyers manage to reclaim dominance in the coming days and take out resistance at 1.2800, the upward momentum could intensify, propelling GBP/USD towards 1.2895 – the March peak. While overcoming this ceiling might be difficult, it is still feasible. On that note, upside clearance of this barrier could result in a rally towards the 1.3000 handle.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD holds firm despite hawkish FOMC minutesUK inflation data for April showed a slower-than-expected decrease in consumer inflation. However, services inflation, which has been persistently high, exceeded the estimated level predicted by analysts and economists. This unexpected outcome caused a delay in the expected rate cut from August to November, with only one rate cut now anticipated for this year. As a result, the pound and Gilt yields increased, leading to a rise in GBP/USD. GBP/USD briefly rose above 1.2736 but was pulled back down by hawkish FOMC minutes. It is now trading higher again, showing resilience around the 1.2736 level. With both the BoE and Fed leaning towards a more hawkish stance, a significant move may be challenging without another catalyst. The upcoming US PCE data at the end of next week could provide that catalyst. For now, the pound is pushing higher.
by Xayah_trading