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GBPUSD is experiencing bearish conditions due to a dovish BoEBritish private sector business activity grew in June at its slowest pace since November last year, according to the latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI report. According to Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global, the slowdown partly “reflects the uncertainty surrounding the business environment in the run-up to the general election.” UK service sector inflation remains high “still evident in the survey, but will at least ease from the current 5.7% pace in the coming months.” UK government bond yields continue to fall, boosted by dovish moves by the Bank of England. Financial markets are currently pricing in a 50/50 chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the BoE's monetary policy meeting in August and a total cut of just under 50 basis points this year. On the daily chart, OANDA:GBPUSD has technical conditions that support the possibility of a bearish price with pressure from the newly formed short-term price channel, the price channel and the break below the price channel indicate an uptrend for GBP/ The USD is no longer technically functional. Additionally, GBP/USD is also under pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21), along with the RSI pointing down but still quite far from the oversold area. This shows that there is still a lot of room for technical downside for GBP/USD. With price activity below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement and within the price channel, GBP/USD is expected to decline further in the near term with a short-term target level of around 1.25956 price points of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. In the short term, technical conditions lean bearish for GBP/USD and technical levels are in focus again as follows. Support: 1.25956 Resistance: 1.26650 – 1.27400
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD attempts to hold 1.0700OANDA:EURUSD ANALYSIS - Focus returns to Europe and France in particular in the lead up to the elections - Will the ECB step in to calm widening bond spreads considering Frances debt load? - EUR/USD fails to capitalize on Mondays reprieve – downside risks remain WILL THE ECB STEP IN TO CALM WIDENING BOND SPREADS CONSIDERING FRANCE'S DEBT LOAD? With the focus shifting back to Europe, particularly France, the campaign for the upcoming parliamentary elections is in full swing. The rising popularity of Marine Le Pen's National Rally party has concerned markets, as they see it as a potential unpredictable force impacting European bond markets. The risk premium applied to riskier nations like Italy and France is reflected in the French-German spreads, while investors have turned to safer German bonds. Keep an eye on any sell-off in periphery nations' bonds as it could lead to a weaker euro when France goes to vote. The ECB's Chief Economist, Philip Lane, described the recent bond market movement as "repricing" and not chaotic. The ECB introduced a new tool to address any potential fragmentation in the bond market in 2022, which involves purchasing bonds from qualifying member states if borrowing costs become uncontrollable. France's debt to GDP ratio is currently above the EU's recommended 60%, which may complicate their eligibility for assistance if spreads get out of control. OANDA:EURUSD ATTEMPTS TO HOLD 1.0700 BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS REMAIN On Monday, the pair attempted to break through the 1.0700 level, but concerns about momentum and downside risks persist. The price is currently trading below the 200 simple moving average and is likely to retest 1.0700. Key support levels are at 1.0600 and potentially even 1.0450, which was the low point of the major decline in 2023. EU inflation data has been declining despite a slight increase in May. The ECB is considering another interest rate cut. Today, ZEW economic sentiment fell short of expectations at 47.5 (slightly better than last month's 47.1). Inflation expectations have increased due to the slightly higher May figures.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD ticked up on TuesdayEURUSD ticked up on Tuesday but failed to decisively push past confluence resistance between 1.0865 and 1.0880, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement of last year's decline intersects a key short-term descending trendline. Traders should continue to watch this ceiling in the coming days, bearing in mind that a bullish breakout could set the stage for a rally toward 1.0980. In the event of sellers successfully defending the technical zone at 1.0865/1.0880, we could see downside pressure drive the exchange rate down toward support at 1.0810. The pair may stabilize around this floor during a pullback before resuming its ascent. However, if a breakdown occurs, a retest of the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0790 could be imminent, with attention then transitioning to 1.0775.
by Xayah_trading
1
EURUSD remains tight as the market can take cues from PCE dataThe lack of US data last week resulted in lower volatility, benefiting the dollar and treasury yields. Low volatility favors higher yielding currencies in the FX market. The upcoming US PCE data could impact the dollar's performance. Better than expected survey data on Friday revealed a decrease in inflation expectations, causing temporary weakness in the dollar and a rise in EUR/USD. This recovery in EUR/USD may lead to bearish movement next week. If inflation in the eurozone, particularly in Germany, continues to weaken, the euro could face pressure midweek. Many ECB officials have expressed a preference for a 25 basis point cut next month, which could lead to further easing leading up to the June ECB meeting. In contrast, the May Fed meeting minutes showed a more hawkish approach and lack of confidence in reaching the Fed's 2% inflation target, supporting a stronger US dollar and higher US yields. The upcoming EU inflation data could cause the Lower German pair to trade lower. This could be further influenced by disappointing PCE inflation. If there is no new swing high at the beginning of the week, it may lead to a bearish move for the rest of the week. A sell-off could occur if the pair drops below 1.0800, while a bullish continuation would require surpassing the recent high of 1.0895 on a daily closing basis.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD has broke back of interests for the weekEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence in the euro zone inflation being under control. In contrast, the recently released Fed minutes indicate a negative impact on the committee's confidence in achieving 2% inflation and suggest that it will take more time to recover. The minutes were recorded before the latest US CPI data, highlighting that a single positive print is not enough for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts seriously. EURUSD was expected to give up last week's gains as the FX market focused on higher yielding currencies like the US dollar, Pound Sterling, and the Kiwi dollar. Despite breaking out of an ascending channel, EURUSD traded slightly higher in the London AM session following improved European flash PMI data for May. German manufacturing data showed signs of improvement, moving closer to the neutral 50 mark, and there was a slight increase in sentiment in the services sector as well. Channel support, now resistance, serves as the nearest challenge to dollar strength heading into the end of the week. 1.0800 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) present downside levels of interest.
by Xayah_trading
2
$ES top in?We got a large reversal today which makes me think that top is in for this cycle. As you can see from the chart, price went over resistance and closed back below it which is extremely bearish. From here, I think we'll see a move down to the first support at $4800, then I think it's likely that we bounce higher to make people think we're going to see another move higher, but instead of having a sustained trend, we'll roll over down to new lows. My base case is that we'll see the lowest supports at $2750-2900 before we see any sustainable bull market trend form. Let's see how it plays out.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by benjihyam
GOLD driven by CPI, next eye on PPI dataThe release of the US inflation report shows that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. The US Dollar fell sharply and gold prices reached a 6-week high then corrected slightly in the Asian trading session today Friday (July 12). CPI data reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut • US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in June, with the smallest annual increase in a year, reinforcing the view that disinflation is back on track and prompting the Federal Reserve to take action an important step in cutting interest rates. • The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-over-month in June, the first decline since May 2020 US seasonally adjusted CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in June, below market expectations of 3.1%, the lowest since June last year. • Additionally, the seasonally unadjusted core CPI in the US recorded an annual increase of 3.3% in June, below market expectations of 3.4% and the lowest level since April /2021. • The seasonally adjusted monthly core CPI rate in June was 0.1%, below market expectations of 0.2% and the lowest since August 2021. CME Group's (CME) Federal Reserve interest rate tracker shows that after the release of US CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 92.6%, significantly higher than Wednesday's 70%. Since gold does not earn interest, falling interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and increase the investment appeal of the precious metal. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has attended US Senate and House committee hearings over the past 2 days, and his testimony shows that the Fed is getting closer to a decision to cut interest rate. Today (Friday), investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After reaching and breaking the original price level of 2,400 USD, the target increase noticed by readers in previous publications, gold is also making certain adjustments. And the $2,400 raw price point now becomes the closest support on the daily chart. The bullish technical structure of gold prices remains unchanged with all supporting factors from the trend price channel, support level at the original price point of 2,400 USD and maintaining price activity above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). In addition, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price increases in the near future. As long as gold remains within the trending price channel, the main technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical points listed below. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,424 – 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2441 - 2439 ⚰️SL: 2445 ⬆️TP1: 2434 ⬆️TP2: 2429 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2379 - 2381 ⚰️SL: 2375 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2391
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD increased about 1%, the third consecutive week of increaseWorld gold prices decreased but still maintained the 2,400 USD/oz mark in the trading session on Friday (July 12) and completed the third consecutive week of increase thanks to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon interest rate cuts. Some experts predict that gold prices could re-establish an all-time record in the next few days. This week, world gold prices increased by about 1%, marking the third consecutive week of increase. On Thursday, gold prices reached their highest level in 6 weeks, thanks to motivation from a statistical report showing that the US consumer price index (CPI) in June unexpectedly decreased. The data reinforces the view that the downward trend in US inflation has resumed and increases the likelihood that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in September. A report from the US Department of Labor on Friday showed that PPI - a measure of wholesale inflation - increased 0.2% in June compared to the previous month, higher than the 0.1% increase forecast by economists. reported in a survey by Reuters news agency. In May, this index moved sideways compared to April. However, the above report basically did not change interest rate expectations. Data from CME's FedWatch Tool shows that traders still bet on a more than 93% chance of the Fed lowering interest rates in September. The world's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust had its second consecutive week of net gold purchases this week, but the net purchase amount only reached 0.3 tons of gold. Data from the fund's website shows that at the end of Friday, this fund was holding approximately 835.1 tons of gold. The prospect of lower interest rates has put downward pressure on the USD this week, causing the Dollar Index to fall 0.34% on Friday, closing the week at 104.08 points - according to data from MarketWatch. For the whole week, this index decreased by 0.75%, bringing the total decrease in the past month to nearly 1.4%.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Exploring Bearish Plays w/ Futures, Micros & Options on FutureIntroduction The WTI Crude Oil futures market provides various avenues for traders to profit from bullish and bearish market conditions. This article delves into several bearish strategies using standard WTI Crude Oil futures, Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contracts, and options on these futures. Whether you are looking to trade outright futures contracts, construct complex spreads, or utilize options strategies, this publication aims to assist you in formulating effective bearish plays while managing risk efficiently. Choosing the Right Contract Size When considering a bearish play on WTI Crude Oil futures, the first decision involves selecting the appropriate contract size. The standard WTI Crude Oil futures and Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contracts offer different levels of exposure and risk. WTI Crude Oil Futures: Standardized contracts linked to WTI Crude Oil with a point value = $1,000 per point. Suitable for traders seeking significant exposure to market movements. Greater potential for profits but also higher risk due to larger contract size. TradingView ticker symbol is CL1! Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for WTI Crude Oil futures is approximately $6,000 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions. Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures: Contracts representing one-tenth the value of the standard WTI Crude Oil futures. Each point move in the Micro WTI Crude Oil futures equals $100. Ideal for traders who prefer lower exposure and risk. Allows for more precise risk management and position sizing. TradingView ticker symbol is MCL1! Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for Micro WTI Crude Oil futures is approximately $600 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions. Choosing between standard WTI Crude Oil and Micro WTI Crude Oil futures depends on your risk tolerance, account size, and trading strategy. Smaller contracts like the Micro WTI Crude Oil futures offer flexibility, particularly for newer traders or those with smaller accounts. Bearish Futures Strategies Outright Futures Contracts: Selling WTI Crude Oil futures outright is a straightforward way to express a bearish view on the market. This strategy involves selling a futures contract in anticipation of a decline in oil prices. Benefits: Direct exposure to market movements. Simple execution and understanding. Ability to leverage positions due to margin requirements. Risks: Potential for significant losses if the market moves against your position. Mark-to-market losses can trigger margin calls. Example Trade: Sell one WTI Crude Oil futures contract at 81.00. Target price: 76.00. Stop-loss price: 82.50. This trade aims to profit from a 5.00-point decline in oil prices, with a risk of a 1.50-point rise. Futures Spreads: 1. Calendar Spreads: A calendar spread, also known as a time spread, involves selling (or buying) a longer-term futures contract and buying (or selling) a shorter-term futures contract with the same underlying asset. This strategy profits from the difference in price movements between the two contracts. Benefits: Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions. Potential to profit from changes in the futures curve. Risks: Limited profit potential compared to outright positions. Changes in contango or backwardation could hurt the position. Example Trade: Sell an October WTI Crude Oil futures contract. Buy a September WTI Crude Oil futures contract. Target spread: Decrease in the difference between the two contract prices. In this example, the trader expects the October contract to lose more value relative to the September contract over time. The profit is made if the spread between the December and September contracts widens. 2. Butterfly Spreads: A butterfly spread involves a combination of long and short futures positions at different expiration dates. This strategy profits from minimal price movement around a central expiration date. It is constructed by selling (or buying) a futures contract, buying (or selling) two futures contracts at a nearer expiration date, and selling (or buying) another futures contract at an even nearer expiration date. Benefits: Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions. Profits from stable prices around the middle expiration date. Risks: Limited profit potential compared to other spread strategies or outright positions. Changes in contango or backwardation could hurt the position. Example Trade: Sell one November WTI Crude Oil futures contract. Buy two October WTI Crude Oil futures contracts. Sell one September WTI Crude Oil futures contract. In this example, the trader expects WTI Crude Oil prices to remain relatively stable. Bearish Options Strategies 1. Long Puts: Buying put options on WTI Crude Oil futures is a classic bearish strategy. It allows traders to benefit from downward price movements while limiting potential losses to the premium paid for the options. Benefits: Limited risk to the premium paid. Potential for significant profit if the underlying futures contract price falls. Leverage, allowing control of a large position with a relatively small investment. Risks: Potential loss of the entire premium if the market does not move as expected. Time decay, where the value of the option decreases as the expiration date approaches. Example Trade: Buy one put option on WTI Crude Oil futures with a strike price of 81.00, expiring in 30 days. Target price: 76.00. Stop-loss: Premium paid (e.g., 2.75 points x $1,000 per contract). If the WTI Crude Oil futures price drops below 81.00, the put option gains value, and the trader can sell it for a profit. If the price stays above 78.25, the trader loses only the premium paid. 2. Synthetic Short: Creating a synthetic short involves buying a put option and selling a call option at the same strike price and expiration. This strategy mimics holding a short position in the underlying futures contract. Benefits: Similar profit potential to shorting the futures contract. Flexibility in managing risk and adjusting positions. Risks: Potential for unlimited losses if the market moves significantly against the position. Requires margin to sell the call option. Example Trade: Buy one put option on WTI Crude Oil futures at 81.00, expiring in 30 days. Sell one call option on WTI Crude Oil futures at 81.00, expiring in 30 days. Target price: 76.00. The profit and loss (PnL) profile of the synthetic short position would be the same as holding a short position in the underlying futures contract. If the price falls, the position gains value dollar-for-dollar with the underlying futures contract. If the price rises, the position loses value in the same manner. 3. Bearish Options Spreads: Options offer versatility and adaptability, allowing traders to design various bearish spread strategies. These strategies can be customized to specific market conditions, risk tolerances, and trading goals. Popular bearish options spreads include: Vertical Put Spreads Bear Put Spreads Put Debit Spreads Ratio Put Spreads Diagonal Put Spreads Calendar Put Spreads Bearish Butterfly Spreads Bearish Condor Spreads Etc. Example Trade: Bear Put Spread: Buying the 81.00 put and selling the 75.00 put with 30 days to expiration. Risk Profile Graph: This example shows a bear put spread aiming to profit from a decline in WTI Crude Oil prices while limiting potential losses. For detailed explanations and examples of these and other bearish options spread strategies, please refer to our published ideas under the "Options Blueprint Series." These resources provide in-depth analysis and step-by-step guidance. Trading Plan A well-defined trading plan is crucial for successfully executing any strategy. Here’s a step-by-step guide to formulating your plan: 1. Select the Strategy: Choose between outright futures contracts, calendar or butterfly spreads, or options strategies based on your market outlook and risk tolerance. 2. Determine Entry and Exit Points: Entry price: Define the price level at which you will enter the trade (e.g., breakout, UFO resistance, indicators convergence/divergence, etc.). Target price: Set a realistic target based on technical analysis or market projections. Stop-loss price: Establish a stop-loss level to manage risk and limit potential losses. 3. Position Sizing: Calculate the appropriate position size based on your account size and risk tolerance. Ensure that the position aligns with your overall portfolio strategy. 4. Risk Management: Implement risk management techniques such as using stop-loss orders, hedging, and diversifying positions to protect your capital. Risk management is vital in trading to protect your capital and ensure long-term success. Conclusion In this article, we've explored various bearish strategies using WTI Crude Oil futures, Micro WTI Crude Oil futures, and options on futures. From outright futures contracts to sophisticated spreads and options strategies, traders have multiple tools to capitalize on bearish market conditions while managing their risk effectively. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
2024-07-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment : No deeper analysis needed today. Could have sold anywhere and made money. Tomorrow will be key for next week. Best case for the bears is a weekly close below 19700 but anything below 20000 would suffice. current market cycle: climactic bull trend with overshoots is done. Market will probably range some before we begin a new bear trend over the next months. key levels: 20000 - 21000 - if we break below 20000, next support is 19700 bull case: Bulls see this as a deep two legged pullback but since they are still trading around 20000 and inside the bull channel, their premise lives on. They want a strong reversal tomorrow and since bears were in pain for so long, any good bounce above 20100/20200 could make most bears exit their shorts. Bulls want a retest of the broken channel, which would also be a retest of the ath 20983. After a -3% day, anything in this section is low probability and the best bulls can hope for is to find support and go sideways. Invalidation is below 19700. bear case: Bears are now trading below the multi month and year patterns market broke above, which indeed was a bull trap. The selling was strong enough to let the bulls know the trend is long gone and they are scrambling to secure their profits. Their next target is to break below the bull trend line and below 19700, where many many more bull stops will be. Odds heavily favor the bears for more sideways to down price action. Invalidation is above 21000. short term: Bearish. I think we can hit 19800 and/or the bull trend line. Can we go deeper? Not likely but anything can happen. If the bull trend line breaks tomorrow, this will go full panic selling and the next support would be the 50% pb from the whole bull trend since April, which is 19180. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 20800. trade of the day: Sell anywhere and go away until US close. Chart was drawn last Sunday and the big red arrow the week before or so. C target might be couple points too deep but you get the idea.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
2024-07-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes all read except DJI. Given the overbought conditions especially for the russel, tis was expected. Tech selling continued and is accelerating. For Nvidia all but 1 remaining bull trend line are broken and if bears can close the gap down to 114, they can probably print 100 over the next weeks. My measured move target 96 is from 2024-07-06. Selling today was strong enough to expect more tomorrow, especially going into the weekend. Commodities - Gold printed a rather neutral doji on the daily chart after a new ath 2488. Will we sell off from here or can they go 2500? I don’t know. 2500 is an obvious magnet but Opex is around the corner and maybe too many yolo’d into 2500 calls. Oil got the expected bounce to 83, which I have been writing about since Sunday. Buying was strong enough for follow through tomorrow but bears need to keep it below 84 or this is not a pullback anymore. Bitcoin - Market has still not touched the 4h 20ema since Saturday. Very strong buying by the bulls but it gets weaker. I don’t know if they can break out above again without a deeper pullback first. It’s also very bullish, that nasdaq sells off while btc stays above 62000. Should only look for longs as long as market stays above the 4h ema. dax comment: Will change from dax cfd from EasyMarkets to dax futures from now on. Market opened below y close and quickly filled the gap before bears took over and grinded it down. 18500 was bought as expected but the two legs up were so strong, that bears did not try to force another test of 18500 and market went mostly sideways, which is a neutral signal going into tomorrow. The bear channel is holding properly but bears would need a weekly close below 18500 for more selling next week. Market has formed a triangle with the bull trend line and the most recent bear channel resistance line and market will break out tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart - technically bears traded back into the triangle) key levels: small range 18500 / 18900 - If 18500 is broken for good, next support is 18360 bull case: Bulls bought where they had to and stopped a bigger sell off. They need to break the bear channel for another test of 18900 or higher. They bounced at the daily 20ema yesterday and today they closed above it again, which means that bulls are technically still in control but if they do not reverse it tomorrow, it’s night night. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears now had 3 decent legs down to 18500 and market then oscillated around the 50% pullback from the recent bull trend, which is 18570. As long as the bears keep it mostly below the 1h 20ema and inside the bear channel, they are good and market will continue down. Their target is a weekly close below 18500, which would make most bulls cover and it would be a strong sell signal going into next week. Invalidation is above 18720. short term: Neutral between 18500 - 18650. Bearish below and bullish only on a strong break above the bear channel. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 18700, added to shorts 18900. Will hold this till Cathy closes ARKK or the big short 2.0 is announced. —unchanged trade of the day: Longs from the strong open were decent but you had to think fast. After the gap close market quickly reversed and since it reversed right at the 1h 20ema, that was your hint to look for shorts next time market gets near it.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds
BTC will surge direct 72500$ Hi folks, as usual we are sniping a golden entry on btc Bitcoin tested the support area and grabbed liquidity from there. The price will pump hard due to the FOMo coming with news, The resistance area is $62,800, and the support area is $63,900 Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC) a revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the reasoning logic of the most powerful trading algorithms that control all financial markets . very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps of the checklist until you reach the target
Long
by LEETRADERS
BTCUSDT, Wed 17 Jul, Bitcoin price movement since 1st of July! From the study of this process according to ICT concepts, it can be seen: - The price has entered the discount zone and has touched the 62% level. - And the price has been reversed. - EQL formed near the 50% level and all bystops above it have been cleared. Therefore, I predict that we will have a sharp downward movement on Thursday. The entry point or low-risk trigger will be below the QL and below the open price on Monday, July 1st. And I will expect a target price of 58,200 or even 57,200. The above content is just a theory and does not constitute any offer to buy or sell or trade. Wish for a low-loss trade
Short
by kevin13433
2024-07-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: In my weekly post I expected a pullback to the bull trend line and that bulls would buy it again. That happened and then some. Very strong buying and market is right under prev ath 2477.1. It’s strong enough to expect more upside and we can probably print 2500 tomorrow. Where are the bears? Gone and waiting for bulls to start profit taking. You will see consecutive big bear bars and know when they appear. Will be a decent tripple top to short. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2500 bull case: Bulls want a new ath and all the stops too close above it. 2500 would be a nice round number to reach. After that I don’t have anything for the bulls. It’s a trading range since April and such big trading ranges happen before the final flag and this one here is probably it. I would not bet on another strong bull trend above 2500. Invalidation is below 2400. bear case: Bears stepping aside enough and letting the higher high happen. They will probably wait for the bulls to begin the profit taking before shorting aggressively. Since the highest monthly close is from May and below 2350, I don’t have much arguments for the bulls until they close a month above that price. Invalidation is above 2510. short term: Bullish af. Don’t look for shorts. Go long on strong momentum and see how high this can go. 15m 20ema is my stop on any long as long as it holds. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long anything around the 1h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
2024-07-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market closed near the open, so neutral. Bulls printed another ath but got another big rejection for 50 points. Bears need lower lows and follow through selling or we continue inside the broad bull channel. Friday’s and Today’s daily bar look bad enough for the bulls so I think bears are favored slightly to get to 5640 or lower tomorrow. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5500 - 5720 bull case: Bulls buying every dip and staying near or above the 1h 20ema. Despite the many rejections above 5700, bulls are in control and poke higher each day. Clean broad bull channel and until bears break below and make lower lows again, bulls are heavily favored. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Big up, big down, market went nowhere today, despite another ath. Bears desperately need lower lows below 5600, otherwise every dip is bought. First bear target are consecutive closes below the 1h 20ema and then a retest of 5640, which is Friday’s open and near the bull channel line. Invalidation is above 5720. short term: Neutral and fading the extremes. Selling above 5700 continues to be profitable. Not interested in buying this. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: Short 5700. Will also hold this until Tesla goes bankrupt or Cathy closes her trashcan of a “fund”. trade of the day: Shorting above 5700 was good for 48 points. Was previous resistance and still is. Daily close above 5700 would change that.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 14th —>July 19th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/14/2024) **SPX**- As we predicted last week, market was bullish, We also saw lower than expect CPI and PPI data which pushed the chance of a rate cut to 88% in September. Due to the chance of rate cut actually happening, we are seeing rotation into small cap stocks and industrials. Next resistance $5626 and $5655 Next support $5490 and 5385 Weekly Sentiment = Slightly Bearish **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY- As rate cut chances increase and JPY FX started to increase, we are starting to see weakness in the dollar. Next resistance $105 Support $104 Sentiment = Oversold **Put to call Ratio: 1.56 —> 1.31 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 54—>56**
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 08 - July 12]After gold retested the $2,364 level it broke this technical level over the weekend and headed towards the original price point of $2,400. As sent to readers in recent publications, in terms of technical factors, gold price still has enough conditions for a bullish outlook with the main support being noticed at the EMA21 moving average line, The fact that gold prices are operating above the 21-day moving average makes this moving average a reliable support. On the other hand, in the short term the 0.236% Fibonacci level is also a notable support point; Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that the upward price momentum is still widespread. In the immediate future, the target level will still be noticed at the original price point of 2,400 USD, this is an important price point where the gold price can make short-term downward adjustments here. However, once the original price level of 2,400 USD is broken, gold will continue to move towards 2,449 USD in the short term. The bullish outlook for gold prices will be highlighted again by the following technical points. Support: 2,364 – 2,350 – 2,345USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,449USD 📌The trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns to test around the 2335 barrier, and to sell if the price approaches the 2440 area.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
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