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USDJPY is close to 151.958The Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased its policy interest rate to 0.00-0.10% in March, bringing interest rates out of negative territory. Although the yen was expected to increase, the market witnessed a decline in the yen, causing the OANDA:USDJPY exchange rate to increase. Although the Bank of Japan gave limited guidance on further policy tightening, markets viewed the move as a moderate interest rate hike, so the yen's depreciation fueled sentiment. that the central bank could intervene to support the yen. In addition to great nonfarm payrolls data, hawkish speeches from Federal Reserve officials helped US bond yields reach their highest level in more than four months and also supported USD/JPY. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit 4.42% on Monday, its highest since November 27. Higher US bond yields and the USD push USD/JPY higher still. On the daily chart, OANDA:USDJPY has not yet broken the confluence resistance level by the upper edge of the price channel (a) and the 1% Fibonacci level of 151,958 to qualify for a new bullish cycle. While USD/JPY still has a primary bias to the upside, sustained activity below 151.958 provides room for short-term downside corrections without changing the primary uptrend. In the long term, the main trend of USD/JPY is up with the main price channel (a) as the long-term trend and the short-term uptrend supported by EMA21. The main uptrend in USD/JPY will be highlighted by the following technical levels, and traders should also pay attention to the possibility of a slight correction occurring. Support: 150,767 – 150,102 Resistance: 151.958
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY edged lower on WednesdayUSDJPY edged lower on Wednesday, stepping off its multi-decade high established in the previous session when the pair hit 154.78. Should the downturn reversal gain momentum later this week, support can be spotted at 153.20 and 152.00 thereafter. Below these levels, 150.80 may become a focal point. Conversely, if USDJPY resumes its rally, resistance looms at 154.78, followed by 156.00, the upper limit of a short-term ascending channel. Despite the pair’s bullish bias, caution is warranted due to overbought market conditions and the growing possibility of FX intervention by the Japanese government.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY broke above the 152.00 resistance levelThe US dollar surged on Wednesday due to higher-than-expected US inflation numbers. This led to USDJPY reaching new highs for 2024 and its strongest level since 1990. The March Consumer Price Index report showed persistent inflation in the North American economy, reducing expectations for a June FOMC rate cut. Headline CPI increased by 3.5% YoY, surpassing forecasts and accelerating from February's 3.2%. The core gauge, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, also exceeded expectations at 3.8%, indicating a potential increase in price pressures. Wall Street reacted swiftly, pushing U.S. Treasury yields upwards across the board on bets that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to maintain a restrictive position for an extended period. Against this backdrop, the U.S. 2-year yield jumped more than 20 basis points, coming within striking distance from recapturing the 5.0% psychological mark. Traders also adjusted their view on the FOMC’s trajectory, pushing back on the timing and magnitude of future reductions in borrowing costs. That said, futures contracts now price in less than 40 basis points of easing for the year, with the first potential cut likely occurring in September. The table below shows current meeting probabilities. Fed Chair Powell recently downplayed inflation concerns at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum. However, recent high CPI figures may prompt a reassessment of policy outlook and lead to more hawkish rhetoric, which could benefit the U.S. dollar. While the dollar may consolidate in the short term, it's uncertain if it can continue to appreciate against the yen as Japanese authorities may intervene to support their currency. OANDA:USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDJPY broke through resistance at 152.00, reaching its highest level since June 1990. Without intervention, speculators may attack the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel near 155.70. If prices fall below 152.00, support is expected at 150.90 and failure to defend this area could lead to a retracement towards the 50-day moving average at 150.00, with channel support near 149.25 being closely watched.
by Xayah_trading
2
USDJPY does not show a clear directionUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:USDJPY - U.S. dollar loses ground on Monday ahead of high-impact events later in the week - Core PCE data and Powell’s speech on Friday will be the center of attention - This article examines the technical outlook for USD/JPY The dollar fell slightly on Monday, but losses were limited by higher U.S. Treasury yields. Traders took profits after last week's strong performance, while others held back due to upcoming high-impact events like the release of core PCE data and a speech by Powell on Friday. OANDA:USDJPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY showed no clear direction on Monday after last week's surge, with the pair hovering just under last year’s peak at 152.00. A breach of this barrier might prompt Japanese authorities to intervene in support of the yen, potentially limiting the breakout's longevity. Nevertheless, absent FX intervention, a surge beyond 152.00 could set the stage for a push towards 154.40. Alternatively, if bears wrest control from bulls and initiate a reversal, support can be spotted at 150.90, followed by 149.75 subsequently. The pair might stabilize around these levels upon a retest, but if a breakdown occurs, a drop towards the 50-day simple moving average at 148.90 could be in the cards.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY is trading within a limited rangeOANDA:USDJPY FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY traded within a confined range on Thursday, lingering just below overhead resistance at 152.00. This technical barrier warrants close attention, as a breakout might prompt intervention from the Japanese government to support the yen. Should such a scenario unfold, a rapid reversal below 150.90 could occur ahead a possible drop towards the 50-day simple moving average at 149.75. In the event that USD/JPY takes out the 152.00 level and Tokyo refrains from intervening, opting instead to allow market forces to find a new equilibrium for the exchange rate, buyers might gain confidence to launch a bullish attack on 155.25, a key barrier created by the upper boundary of an ascending channel in place since December of last year.
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 25th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 25th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining short-term control. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5088-92 (major), 5082, 5077 (major), 5067 Major Supports: 5054-57 (major), 5033-36 (major), 5005-10 (major), 4966 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5104 (major), 5115-20 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5171-75 (major) Major Resistances: 5191 (major), 5225, 5240-45 (major) Trading Strategy Trading the Chop Zone: The 5088-5115 range is currently a choppy, congested zone. Exercise caution with overtrading and consider sniping within the zone over chasing direction. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5088-92 or 5077. After earnings, focus on bids cautiously within the range, prioritizing the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs at major levels. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5115 or the major 5171-75 zone if reached. Given earnings, a breakout of the current flag pattern is possible and could be considered, but use caution. Profit-Taking: With Meta earnings, use level-to-level profit-taking on any position. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the current bull flag structure (5088-5115) is critical. Look for a base building within this range or a breakout. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5133-36/5155 zone for a potential run to the next major target, 5171-75. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5077 triggers the downside move. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 25th, 2024 Earnings Releases Meta Earnings: Reports weak revenue guidance, drops 16%.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
AUDNZD entered a period of consolidation as prices fell slightlyAUDNZD entered into a period of consolidation as prices eased in the form of a bull flag pattern. After yesterday’s close, a bullish continuation appears on the cards for the pair despite today’s intraday pullback from the daily high. A move below 1.0885 suggests a failure of the bullish continuation but as long as prices hold above this marker, the longer-term bullish bias and the prospect of a bullish continuation remains constructive. One thing to keep in mind is the risk of a shorter-term pullback as the RSI approaches overbought once more. Upside target appears at 1.1052 (June 2023 high) and 1.0885 to the downside.
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 22 - April 26]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD increased mainly due to escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. Gold prices recorded a fifth consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak since January 2023. Despite strong gains in the dollar and bond yields, expectations of an interest rate cut in 2024 have faded. decline. Israel's response comes a week after Iran's drone and missile attacks on Israel pushed gold prices to a record high of over $2,426 an ounce. Recent statements from Fed officials suggest there is no rush to cut interest rates in the short term. This view is echoed not only by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell but also by John Williams of the New York Fed and Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed). According to Kitco, in addition to persistent inflation, it is important to emphasize that the continuously tightening labor market reinforces the view of a strong economy, supporting the "soft landing" scenario, indicating that the The expected first interest rate cut will be delayed. It is worth noting that the market focus has shifted slightly from Fed policy to geopolitical risks, influencing investor strategies and gold pricing. Israel reportedly struck back at Iran on Friday morning, hitting a military site with drones, but it was limited and did not appear to cause much damage. Gold prices rose nearly 1.6% after concerns about widespread conflict in the Middle East disrupted global markets following the above event. Fed officials agree that interest rate cuts are not urgent. The market currently predicts the probability of an interest rate cut in September is about 67%. High interest rates make holding non-yielding gold less attractive. Next week is a week of little economic data of note, as traders focus on March U.S. new home sales on Tuesday and March durable goods on Wednesday. On Thursday, there will be the release of the first quarter US GDP report, quarterly PCE data, weekly initial jobless claims and pending home sales data. The week's most notable data will appear on Thursday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold remains stable with technical conditions supporting an upward price trend as reported to readers throughout recent publications. The short-term uptrend is noticed by the price channel and the medium-term trend is noticed by the EMA21. The weekly close above the 1% Fibonacci extension opens up the prospect of continued upside next week with a near-term target of $2,400 full price and beyond all-time highs. Currently, there are no notable resistance points to set expectations for a possible downward adjustment. If gold is sold off below 2,365 USD, it will have conditions to technically adjust downward to the target level. then at the 0.786% Fibonacci extension point. The trading plan for next week will consider buying if the price falls and adjusting to around 2320, and selling if the price increases to reach 2473. Looking ahead, gold remains tilted towards the bullish case and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,382 – 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417 – 2,431USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 24th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls maintaining control after yesterday's rally but price action becoming more complex after a trend day. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5095-5100 (major), 5082, 5076 (major), 5067 Major Supports: 5056 (major), 5047-45 (major), 5027 (major), 4996-5000, 4966 (major), 4945-49 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5120 (major), 5136 (major), 5171 (major), 5190 (major) Major Resistances: 5220 (major), 5246 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Trend Caution: After a significant move yesterday, be aware of complex price action and increased potential for traps. Prioritize caution over conviction. Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of post-trend days, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5090 (after it's reclaimed) or on major supports (5056, 5046-45). Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5136 and particularly 5171 for shorting. A breakdown below 5076 could open up downside targets, with level-to-level profit-taking. Risk Management: Scale back position sizing and be prepared to potentially take some losses while price discovery takes place. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5045 zone is encouraging for bulls. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5120/5136 zone for a potential run to the next major target, 5171. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5095, within a bull flag pattern, could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5045 triggers the downside move, while a short-term failure of 5076 could lead to a dip. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 24th, 2024 Economic Environment IMF Global Financial Stability Report highlights optimism and lingering risks. US Dollar's strength despite expectations of decline. Economic indicators: Focus on upcoming employment report, CPI report, and Bitcoin halving. Stock Market Updates S&P 500 performance: new highs followed by a downturn due to inflation concerns. Additional Market News Boeing's quarterly performance and supply chain stabilization. Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of earnings reports, economic data, and the critical battle at the 5040 resistance. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly. Let me know if you'd like any changes!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
EURGBP increased at the beginning of the week but has reversedEURGBP rallied earlier in the week but reversed its course on Thursday after failing to clear trendline resistance at 0.8570, with prices dropping towards the 50-day simple moving average at 0.8550. The pair is likely to stabilize around current levels before mounting a comeback, but in the event of a breakdown, a dip towards 0.8520 and potentially 0.8500 could be around the corner. Alternatively, if bulls manage to reassert dominance and push the exchange rate higher, resistance emerges at 0.8570 as mentioned before. Breaking through this technical obstacle could set the stage for a surge toward the 200-day simple moving average near the 0.8600 handle.
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at key resistance after yesterday's recovery day. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5040 (major), 5032, 5020 (major) Major Supports: 4996 (major), 4959 (major), 4938 (major), 4903 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5057 (major), 5081 (major), 5102 (major), 5115 (major) Major Resistances: 5129 (major), 5141 (major), 5167 (major), 5186-90 (major) Trading Strategy The 5040 Battleground Continues to be critical. Observe for breakouts or breakdowns with close attention. Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5040 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5032 or on major supports (4959, 4938). Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5081 and particularly 5102 for shorting. A breakdown below 5020 could open up downside targets. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5040 zone is encouraging for bulls. Re-tests and quick recoveries signal buying strength. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5081/5102 zone for a sustained recovery attempt. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5057 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5020 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4975 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 23rd, 2024 Economic Environment US GDP growth and the impact of interest rates on corporate America. IMF projections for global economic growth and inflation expectations. Bond market signals regarding Federal Reserve policy. Market Analysis Upcoming economic data releases: GDP estimate and key inflation measure. Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of earnings reports, economic data, and the critical battle at the 5040 resistance. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
GOLD spiked higher, falling narrowly short of the all-time highOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS - Gold spiked higher, falling narrowly short of the all-time high - FX markets captured the flight to safety while US equity markets were shut - Gold volatility index eyed ahead of the weekend OANDA:XAUUSD SPIKED HIGHER, FALLING NARROWLY SHORT OF THE ALL-TIME HIGH Gold prices surged on Friday morning following reports of an Israeli strike on Iran, raising concerns of a broader conflict. The uncertainty in the Middle East has contributed to the increase in gold prices, approaching its all-time high of $2431. Although gold remains overbought on the daily chart, the bullish momentum seems to be slowing down. The support level is at $2360, with further interest around $2320. Despite a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, central bank buying continues to support the upward trend in gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 22nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears at a crossroads. Geopolitical risks remain a factor, and market reaction to earnings reports and economic data will be crucial. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 4996-5000 (major), 4990, 4975 (major), 4966 Major Supports: 4958 (major), 4937 (major), 4904-08 (major), 4878 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5013, 5027 (major), 5039, 5045 (major) Major Resistances: 5081 (major), 5108 (major), 5125-30 (major), 5146-50 (major), 5190 (major) Trading Strategy Geopolitical Awareness: Remain vigilant about weekend news developments and potential market impact. Long Opportunities: Due to potential volatility, exercise caution with long positions. Prioritize bids at 4975 (a reaction may signal buying strength) or on failed breakdowns of overnight lows at 4963. For deeper longs, focus on major supports (4937, 4904), utilizing the knife-catch protocol. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of 5045, 5081, and particularly 5108 for shorting. A breakdown below 4958 could open up downside targets. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to regain control by reclaiming 5045 and pushing back into the red channel/flag around 5108 for a sustained recovery attempt. Holding Support: Defending the 4996-5000 zone is encouraging for bulls. If 4958 holds on a retest, it may signal a relief bounce. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5013 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Observe closely to ensure it's not a backtest for a downside rejection. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 4958 triggers the downside move, likely targeting 4937 or lower. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 22nd, 2024 Economic Environment IMF Global Financial Stability Report highlights optimism and expectations for policy easing. Verizon earnings report provides insights into the telecommunications sector. Focus on big tech earnings and their potential impact on market trends. Monitoring of economic indicators: commodity currencies, Asian shares, European currencies, and industrial output data from Poland, Taiwan, and China. Market Focus Sector analysis: Focus on communication services and energy sectors. Upcoming economic events: employment report, CPI report, and Bitcoin halving. Additional Market News Earnings season: Focus on major bank reports. Regulatory and legal updates: SEC activities and discussions on college debt and retirement planning. Reminder: The market is reacting to a mix of geopolitical events, earnings reports, and economic data. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly. Let me know if you have any further questions or would like changes made!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
GOLD remains stable, two important fundamentalsOANDA:XAUUSD continuing to adjust after approaching the original price of 2,400 USD, the target price increase noticed by readers in yesterday's publication is also a resistance that causes gold prices to adjust but overall it does not change. trend with the expectation of entering the accumulation phase. Iran said its military is ready to respond to any Israeli attack. Geopolitical instability continues to support gold and if the situation escalates it will continue to keep gold prices stable. Only when central banks stop buying, or the geopolitical situation cools down, gold prices will only decrease because market psychology will enter a risk-taking phase. Top US central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, on Tuesday declined to offer any guidance on the timing of interest rate cuts, instead says monetary policy will need to be restrained for longer. After a series of unexpectedly high inflation, on April 16, Powell signaled that the Fed would wait longer than expected before cutting interest rates, marking another significant change since his shift in focus. focus on loosening policy in December 2023. Powell's latest policy shift poses a dilemma for central bank governors gathered in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. As sent to readers in yesterday's edition, the market is being negatively affected by two important fundamental factors. - Gold is supported by risk aversion from the escalating geopolitical situation in many places around the globe. - Gold is under pressure because inflation macro data remains unexpectedly high and the possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates high for a longer period of time. This makes gold very difficult to navigate at the present time because both of these factors can bring market shocks and create huge technical fluctuations. Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has continued to correct after approaching the original price level of 2,400 USD, in general the technical conditions supporting the possibility of price increases have not changed. With a short-term uptrend from the price channel. Even if the price channel breaks below it would only open up the possibility for another correction where bullish conditions are still present with the main long-term trend from EMA21. In case the price channel is broken below gold could fall further to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The current chart is still tilted to the upside but it may enter an accumulation phase with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,356 – 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2428USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Geopolitical conflicts escalated, GOLD rose above $2,400OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery suddenly increased sharply. Spot gold has just increased to 2,415 USD/ounce, it has increased more than 35 US Dollars during the day. Previously, US media reported that the US confirmed that an Israeli missile hit an Iranian facility. The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was 1,426 lots traded within one minute from 08:43 to 08:44 Hanoi time on April 19, with a total contract value of 346 million USD. According to the latest report of the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) today Friday, April 19, a US official confirmed to the media that an Israeli missile hit a target in Iran. Meanwhile, US intelligence said officials could not confirm reports of air strikes in Syria and Iraq. ABC reported that a senior US official told ABC News that Israel launched missiles at Iran as a retaliation attack against Iran. Israeli military officials previously announced that Iran launched an attack on Saturday and launched more than 300 missiles and drones at targets across Israel. All but a few were intercepted by Israel and its allies, including the United States, officials said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country's war cabinet have held several meetings since the attack on Iran, with ABC previously reporting that at least two previous attacks had been called off. With current geopolitical developments, the market in general and the gold market in particular will temporarily be less affected by moves from monetary policy. Gold is considered the safe haven asset of choice in contexts of geopolitical conflict, and it becomes even more attractive if conflicts escalate. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved all target price increases after 3 days of accumulation with a short-term upward trend from the price channel that has been noticed by readers throughout the previous editions maintained. maintain stability. The bullish structure remains unchanged with a short-term upward trend from the price channel and medium-term from the EMA21. Temporarily, gold has enough conditions to retest its all-time peak if it continues to maintain above the original price of 2,400 USD. This means the current all-time high is considered the nearest resistance level, which is also the nearest target upside. Meanwhile, the 1% Fibonacci extension now becomes the closest support level. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,365 - 2,382USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429 ⚰️SL: 2435 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2419 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2335 - 2337 ⚰️SL: 2331 ⬆️TP1: 2342 ⬆️TP2: 2347
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD reached target gainsAlthough the dollar and US Treasury yields rose as US retail sales rose more than expected in March, tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand, and at the same time, the market Expecting that the Federal Reserve will be able to delay interest rate cuts this year, gold prices did not extend last week's decline but continued to increase. Iran launched drones and explosive missiles late on Saturday, the first attack by another country on Israel in more than three decades, raising fears of a wider regional conflict than. Israeli officials support retaliation, but the United States makes clear it will not engage in any offensive action against Iran, limiting the immediate market reaction and limiting further gains of gold. The market now expects fewer than two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the end of this year, compared with three previously expected. With inflation remaining high, market participants have now pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to September. This remains supportive of a rise. US Treasury yields, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.61%. Higher bond yields weigh on gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold investments. However, in the current context, this is not a steady pressure and should only be considered a factor limiting the strong increase in gold prices. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 77.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0 ,8%. The Middle East prepares for an Israeli "retaliation" attack on Iran after an Israeli war cabinet meeting. The Israeli Air Force said it had completed "preparations" and that an attack on Iran was "imminent". (according to Zerohedge) US officials say they believe Israel will conduct operations against Iran today. (according to Wall Street Journal) Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Hezi Halevi said during an inspection of Nevatim Air Base on Monday that Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel “will be responded to.” The Times' front page headline was changed to "War Cabinet decides on serious attack on Iran, hopes not to trigger regional war". Previously it was “Times of Israel”. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after the downward correction, gold has achieved all of the target gains noted by readers in the weekly publication and the structural support for the bullish outlook remains unchanged. Temporarily, the nearest target level is noted at the original price level of 2,400 USD. Once this raw price level is broken, gold will tend to continue to increase to the all-time peak previously established. The original price level of 2,400 USD is also the closest resistance in the short term, and as long as gold continues to maintain above the 2,382 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, reaching 2,400 USD is inevitable. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows. Resistance: 2400 - 2428USD Support: 2358 - 2345 - 2330USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2409 - 2407 ⚰️SL: 2413 ⬆️TP1: 2402 ⬆️TP2: 2397 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2357 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2353 ⬆️TP1: 2364 ⬆️TP2: 2369
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD may enter an accumulation phaseOANDA:XAUUSD remained steady as safe-haven demand due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East offset weakening expectations of a US interest rate cut this year. Data on Monday showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in March. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose for a second straight session, with rising bond yields putting pressure on gold as they increase the opportunity cost of investing in metals. However, gold has remained strong over the past few weeks despite rising bond yields due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a safe-haven asset, gold has seen growing demand from investors and central banks amid global economic uncertainty and growing geopolitical tensions. On the one hand, investors are still concerned about the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after Iran attacked Israel over the weekend. On the other hand, speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer has limited demand for gold. Traders are now relying on US macro data and speeches from influential members of the Fed, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, to find trading opportunities. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said recent inflation data suggests it may take longer for the central bank to feel confident enough to cut interest rates. Powell pointed out that the Fed has lacked more progress in fighting inflation since inflation fell sharply late last year. If price pressures continue, the Fed could leave interest rates unchanged “for as long as necessary.” “Recent data clearly does not give us greater confidence but instead suggests that achieving that confidence may take longer than expected,” Powell said in his latest statement. After Fed Chairman Powell said that recent data showed no progress in inflation, this new point caused interest rate cut expectations to continue to decline. According to the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 98%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0% and the probability of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points version is 2%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 84.8% and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 14.9%. The market context is making trading decisions much more difficult, as two important market fundamentals are creating profoundly opposing influences. On the one hand, gold is supported by rising geopolitical risks that increase safe-haven demand for precious metals, on the other hand, gold is under pressure because the Fed's interest rate expectations are having new points due to data. Does macroeconomics favor the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer? These two opposing factors may create a state of accumulation in the near future, with gold prices increasing and decreasing within certain limits and this will be described through the technical analysis section below. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold received support from readers in yesterday's edition at $2,365, it continued to rise but was limited by the original price level of $2,400 which was also a resistance point. target for short-term increase expectations. At this time, the $2,400 level is also the closest notable technical resistance level and once this level is broken it will open up expectations towards the previously established all-time high. Will consider selling around the Fibo 100 mark, corresponding to the resistance threshold of 2430USD. Technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the long-term trend from EMA21. As long as gold remains above the 21 EMA, it remains in a long-term bullish trend. In the short term, influenced by fundamental factors, gold may enter an accumulation phase with main resistance at 2,400 USD and support at 2,365 USD. It is worth noting that if the $2,365 level is broken below gold will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci extension of the $2,331 price point. Recently, gold has been traded at a very large margin, so preparations are needed from managing trading volume and open positions/protecting open positions. The expectation of cumulative sideways with an uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,331 - 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 - 2430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429 ⚰️SL: 2435 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2419 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2351 - 2353 ⚰️SL: 2348 ⬆️TP1: 2358 ⬆️TP2: 2363
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GBPJPY was largely flat on ThursdayGBP/JPY was largely flat on Thursday, trading slightly below trendline resistance at 192.70. Bears need to protect this ceiling tooth and nail; any lapse could spark a move towards the 2024 highs at 193.55. On further strength, a jump towards the psychological 195.00 mark cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, if the pair gets rejected from its current position and pivots to the downside, support stretches from 190.60 to 190.15, where a rising trendline converges with the 50-day simple moving average and April’s swing lows. Additional losses below this floor could reinforce bearish impetus, opening the door for a drop towards 187.90.
by Xayah_trading
1
📈SAND Futures: Short-Term Trading Analysis⚡️🔍Exploring SAND, a metaverse venture with long-term potential, we shift our lens to short-term trading prospects within SAND futures, scrutinizing a 4-hour timeframe. 📈Beginning with candlestick analysis, SAND witnessed a notable decline post-breaking the 0.5629 support, settling near 0.382, thereby forming a consolidation zone between 0 and 0.382. The duration of this range remains uncertain. 💥RSI, after touching a support level at 13, now stabilizes around 50, signaling a reset amid price stabilization. Await RSI's confirmation as it forms a new structure. Meanwhile, volume diminishes post-reaching the 0.4050 floor, synchronizing with the consolidation phase, implying reduced activity during price correction. 📉For potential short positions, monitor a breach below 0.4050, presenting potential entry points, with an initial target set at 0.3647. Conversely, exercise patience for long positions, awaiting confirmation near 0.4710 or a bullish move followed by a correction. 📝Stay vigilant as SAND's short-term trajectory unfolds, capitalizing on emerging opportunities while navigating market dynamics. 🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2
by itsparham96
Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 19th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling at the critical 5045 support zone . A decisive break in either direction will set the tone for the next market move. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5044-46 (major), 5039, 5033 Major Supports: 5020, 5013 (major), 5000, 4990-95 (major), 4959 (major), 4937 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5054 (major), 5066, 5077-5082 (major) Major Resistances: 5112-5115 (major), 5150-55 (major), 5177-80 (major), 5203 (major) Trading Strategy Focus on the 5045 Zone: This zone has become a battleground. Observe closely for breakouts or breakdowns, as these will trigger the next directional move. Long Opportunities: Due to the choppy nature of the 5045 zone, direct bids are less reliable. Consider bids with a failed breakdown at 5039 or only at major support levels, particularly 5013 and 4990-95. Prioritize the knife-catch protocol for deeper longs. Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of the 5077-82 zone, or more reliable setups at 5112-5115 and 5150-55 for shorts. A breakdown below 5039 offers short potential, targeting 5013. Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze. Bull Case Holding Support: Bulls need to defend the 5045 zone to maintain control. Relief Bounce: If 5045 holds, a bounce to 5082 and potentially 5112-15 is possible, with further upside potential to 5150-55 if momentum is sustained. Adding on Strength: Breaks and acceptance above 5054/5060 could offer opportunities for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5039 triggers the downside move, likely heading towards 5013 and potentially 5000. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting. News: Top Stories for April 19th, 2024 Economic Environment Inflation remains a factor despite a decline. Corporate profits show resilience. Potential for a record-breaking expansion cycle in the US. Uncertainty surrounding persistent inflation or negative economic news. Reminder: The market is reacting to the battle at the 5045 level. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro