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2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: One again we saw a huge Globex sell spike but now follow-through. Bulls are on their way to 6100 and there we will see how many buyers we can find to retest the ath 6186. Plan is simple, trade the bull channel/expanding triangle until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range (obvious bull trend on lower time frames) key levels: 6000 - 6100 (above 6100 comes 6200 into play) bull case: Bulls are in BTFD mode and making higher highs again. 6100 is their next target and the last resistance until 6186. Problem for the bulls is that we get decent sell spikes and holding through them is tough. That is probably why we see bigger profit taking when we print new highs. Invalidation is below 6000. bear case: Bears ask themselves how many pushes on whatever time frame bulls can honestly get. The 6100 likely won’t hold but how many are willing to buy above 6100 when we could easily pull-back 100 points. We will find out tomorrow. Bears don’t have many arguments. We have a clear bull pattern upwards and the best they can hope for is to scalp short on new highs for a decent pull-back. Until bears can close consecutive bars below 6000, I would not look for bigger shorts. Given the current erratic price action due to orange man tweets, it’s a wild ride. Trade smaller and with wider stops. Invalidation is above 6120. short term: Bullish for 6100, then Neutral until clearly breaking out above again. Targets above are 6186 and then 6200. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 6000, duh. Otherwise literally every touch of the 1h 20ema.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ES Futures Trade Idea - Trump Inauguration MLK weekMacroeconomic News: US markets were closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. ES, NQ and YM futures saw mild gains yesterday, RTY futures outperformed. As the 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump took the oath of office promising to protect the border, address inflation, and restructure trade policies. In addition to withdrawing from the Paris Climate Treaty and signing orders to cancel 78 Biden-era acts, he also started energy production reforms, such as drilling for oil in the Arctic. Trump discussed agreements over TikTok ownership, threatened global tariffs, and suggested imposing duties on the EU, Canada, and Mexico. He urged a speedy conclusion to the conflict in Ukraine and gave top priority to evaluating China's adherence to trade agreements. Trump stopped importing oil from Venezuela, emphasized energy independence, and lifted sanctions on Israeli settlers. The goal of bold measures is to put American workers and security first. Following yesterday's strong selling pressure, which was brought on by the announcement that President Trump would not impose tariffs on the first day of his presidency, the dollar is now showing signs of recovery. Nevertheless, Trump's statement that he is considering 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and believes they would be implemented on February 1st shattered trade confidence overnight. In our opinion, buy the rumor-sell the fact, sell the rumor-buy the fact, will likely be a key theme during Trump’s presidential term. ES Futures update: As we can see in the chart above, ES futures are currently above our Line in the Sand, Yearly Open at 5,949.25. ES futures also made a higher low on Jan 13th, 2025 compared to Nov 4th, 2024 swing low. ES futures formed a bull flag after the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Price has now broken out of the bull flag channel. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Jan 6th Weekly Hi: 6,068.25 Jan 13th Weekly Hi: 6,051.50 Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25 Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115 Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155 All time highs: 6,184.50 Scenario 1: Breakout continuation Price has broken out of bull flag formation from the Dec 18th, 2024 FOMC announcement. Break above current area of consolidation marked in Blue zone forming the area between Jan 6th and Jan 13th Weekly Highs. Price heads towards R1, R2 and R3 targets. Scenario 2: Further consolidation Price further consolidates this week awaiting a catalyst to trend higher next week. Strong earnings season propels US futures and stocks higher. We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
GOLD skyrocketed, Trump's influence provided strong supportIn the Asian market today, Tuesday, January 21, influenced by Trump's tariff comments that stimulated risk aversion, OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly jumped to 17 USD in the short term and are currently approaching the mark of 2,725 USD/ounce. Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States in the Oval Office of the Capitol. US President Trump recently announced that he plans to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada no later than February 1, possibly up to 25%, and reiterated his view that the two neighboring countries America's neighbors are allowing illegal immigration and drugs into the United States. Complaining about fentanyl and migrants crossing the northern U.S. border, Trump called Canada a “very bad abuser” and said the target date for tariffs would be “I think February 1st. " Trump made the remarks shortly after returning to the Oval Office to sign a series of executive orders. The executive orders cover everything from regulation to energy to immigration. This is an early sign that Trump has increasingly focused on trade since taking office. These comments have stimulated risk aversion in the market to increase rapidly. Not only did gold strengthen, but the safe-haven Dollar also increased strongly. Impacting the market, we can see that recently both gold and Dollar, which have a negative correlation, have increased in price together. Trump's sweeping trade tariffs are expected to spur further inflation and spark a trade war, which could increase gold's safe-haven appeal. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has approached the $2,725 level that was the initial upside target noticed by readers in the previous issue, followed by the $2,730 price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Technically, gold still has all the conditions for price increases with the trend being noticed by the green price channel, main support from EMA21 and the nearest support is the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Meanwhile, the uptrend of the Relative Strength Index also creates an uptrend and is still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. Moving forward, the technical outlook for gold remains bullish and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,700 – 2,693USD Resistance: 2,725 – 2,730 – 2,750USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2746 - 2744⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2750 →Take Profit 1 2739 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2734 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2684 - 2686⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2680 →Take Profit 1 2691 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2696
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2025-01-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bull channel is what you should trade for now. I do think the top is near though. My plan for tomorrow is to see if market stalls more around 21170/21200 and if bears come around to short this down to 21000 again. There I expect bulls to appear again and try another higher high. The bull channel is valid until broken and if bears could break it, first target would be 20850. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20900 - 21200 bull case: Bulls want to continue inside the bull channel. That’s it. Look for pull-backs to long if bulls print a good signal bar. 21200 is my max target though, so I don’t expect market to go much beyond. Invalidation is below 20100. bear case: Bears need to break the bear channel. That’s also everything there is to this right now. Bulls are in full control until then and you should look to long this much more than shorting. It’s overbought, climactic, bubbly, yesyesyes and all of that. Does not matter one single bit until we clearly see much bigger selling pressure. Invalidation is above 21250. short term: Neutral in the middle of the channel but otherwise bullish until bulls clearly lost interest buying above 21000. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. Bears need to do much more before I want bigger shorts again. trade of the day: Buying 21000 has been profitable 3 times today. Trade the channel.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: We have touched the bear trend line and my bullish targets are met. The daily bar closed on it’s low and is decent enough for bears to get potential follow-through into the end of the week. I would want either very strong confirmation for shorts below 73 or a lower high below 75 before I short this. No interest in longs. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 75.5 bull case: Bears are not getting anywhere with this weak selling. It does look much more like a pull-back that will be bought soon than a bear trend that will accelerate. Bulls want to keep it above 76 and try again to get above 80. They are trading far above the daily ema and inside a perfect bull channel. They have all the arguments to buy this tomorrow and make bears cover again. 75 is a possibility but I would be very cautious with longs below. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: 3 consecutive daily bear bars but they are overlapping and market is still above 76. The next touch of this bull channel will most likely be bought and bears know it. Best they can hope for here is to stay below 77 and go sideways for longer. Invalidation is above 80.5. short term: Looking for longs around 76 for target 80. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. Trade the bull channel until it’s clearly broken again. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Market did not find acceptance above 77.4 today and the sell-off at 2 p.m. cet was strong enough to just short it but it was going fast and I also missed it because I’m dumb.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
BITCOIN AT ATH IS SHOWING WHO IS THE KING OF THE JUNGLETechnical Analysis Rising Wedge Pattern: The chart displays a rising wedge pattern (bearish reversal structure). The price is likely at the breakdown point from the wedge. Key support and resistance lines are marked, showing potential pullback zones. Indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index): Shows overbought conditions as it hovers near 70. A pullback or consolidation may occur to relieve overbought pressures. Stochastic Oscillator: The oscillator is in the overbought zone, signaling a potential short-term reversal or cooling-off period. Money Flow Index (MFI): Indicates significant inflows of capital, but nearing overbought conditions, suggesting caution. Price Levels: Key support zones: $95,697, $91,721, and $88,671 (blue horizontal lines). Key resistance zones: Wedge top (~$108,000) and further price targets above $112,000 and $120,000. Trend Analysis: The overall trend appears bullish in the medium term. A short-term retracement (to test lower support levels) is anticipated before further continuation upward. The breakout target from the rising wedge suggests a potential correction to the $95,000–$96,000 range, followed by an upward move. Trading Plan Entry Strategy Scenario A: Retracement to Support Zones If Bitcoin pulls back to $95,000–$96,000, consider opening a long position, as this level aligns with historical support and a confluence of demand zones. Scenario B: Bullish Continuation If Bitcoin breaks above $112,000 with strong volume, open a long position targeting $120,000 and higher. Stop-Loss Placement: Place a stop-loss just below $94,500 for long positions to minimize risk, as a breach below this level could signal further bearish movement. Take-Profit Levels: Primary Target: $112,000 (previous high). Secondary Target: $120,000 (psychological level and technical extension). Risk Management: Limit risk to 1–2% of your trading capital per trade. Avoid over-leveraging as the rising wedge breakdown could result in increased volatility. Monitoring the Trade: Keep an eye on macro indicators (e.g., interest rate announcements, broader market sentiment). Watch for divergence in RSI or Stochastic Oscillator, which could indicate trend exhaustion. Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. A short-term correction is likely to test support levels before resuming its bullish trend. The outlined trading plan provides strategies for both pullback and breakout scenarios, ensuring disciplined risk management.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by elfabiiani
3
GOLD is supported, but watch out for TrumpIn the weekend trading session on Friday (January 17), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot price decreased by 12 USD due to factors such as the recovery of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities of investors, along with some pressure from important technical areas. TVC:DXY Rising prices have put pressure on gold prices, but with uncertainty over incoming President Donald Trump's policies and markets once again betting on further interest rate cuts, Gold remains in favor. Weakly tilted to the upside as prices broke above the key level of $2,700. OANDA:XAUUSD hit a new high in more than a month on Thursday, just $65.60 shy of October's all-time high of $2,790.15. Gold prices rose 0.5% this week, the third straight weekly gain, after weaker-than-expected U.S. core inflation data on Wednesday fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. capacity many times. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice before the end of this year, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying there could be further interest rate cuts if economic data weakens further. Trump's policies make the market worried The market is currently eagerly awaiting Mr. Trump's inauguration on January 20, which is expected to bring challenges to the gold market. Trump's strong rhetoric about supporting US manufacturing through trade tariffs continues to keep the US Dollar Index (Dxy) above 109 points, while also raising concerns about inflation and anxiety about a global trade war. Aggressive markets will pay close attention to tariffs and fiscal spending policies, as these policies will directly affect economic growth, fiscal deficits and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed. This week has been a pretty quiet data week. However, the event of Trump taking over the White House will be the focus, bringing expected market fluctuations that are huge fluctuations that traders need to pay special attention to. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: US Presidential Inauguration, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims, Friday: S&P Flash PMI data, US Existing Home Sales Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has not yet been able to surpass the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, a position that is important resistance for a continued uptrend that readers noticed in the previous issue. Gold has also decreased and corrected since being under pressure from the 0.236% Fibonacci level, but in general, the downward momentum is not significant with technical conditions still tilting in favor of price increases. In the coming time, as long as gold remains in the orange price channel, above EMA21 and POC Volume Profile, it still has a bullish outlook. Meanwhile, the up trending RSI maintained its activity above the 50 level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead. Once gold breaks the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it could open a new bullish cycle targeting $2,750 in the short term, more than the all-time high. The technical uptrend of gold will be noticed again by the following levels. Support: 2,693 – 2,676USD Resistance: 2,730 – 2,750USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2745 →Take Profit 1 2734 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2729 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2666 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2671
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.20 - 1.24Market closed outside of Value after failing under 6074 - 54 HTF Edge. We are set to open inside 6064 - 23 Intraday Range unless market gaps under/over after Mondays Holiday but if we open inside it then that tells us we are over Value and there are two thing we can do here, continue grinding/balancing inside the Intraday Range and try to push towards/into above Edge ? Or do we find more selling over Value that would bring us back into/under VAH, if we get under VAH we would be under Daily Stops so that could trigger moves towards the Mean/VAL of the range. If we do get back inside the Value we could find support and holds around it BUT careful if we take out out and get under Value, that can bring in more weakness for lower targets where we would watch for any continuation. IF the strength from last week stays, for us to see any bigger prices out of this HTF Range we would need to hold over VAH and have a strong push into or over the above Edge that would stay over, until then we have December supply trapped over 6050 - 74 so we may stay under this area and most of December Supply is valued over 930 - 70s and we have January month end approaching which means if more size needs to lighten the bag that could trigger some lower destinations.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [January 20 - January 24]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD fluctuated strongly, increasing from 2,656 USD/oz to 2,724 USD/oz, then decreasing and closing at 2,702 USD/oz. The main reason is due to the prediction that Donald Trump may implement his tariff commitments after his inauguration, increasing the risk of inflation in the context of the FED maintaining current interest rates. If this policy is implemented, the risk of a US-China trade war and global economic instability will increase, even leading to stagflation. These factors may continue to support gold prices to increase next week. Mr. Trump can promote expansionary fiscal policy, increasing US public debt and the risk of global financial instability, thereby strengthening gold's role as a haven. However, next week's gold price may decrease if Mr. Trump delays or delays the imposition of tariffs, although this possibility is considered very low. In the short term, gold prices may increase with the USD due to the impact of Mr. Trump's policies, instead of having a negative correlation as before. However, in the long term, if inflation increases sharply, forcing the FED to raise interest rates to curb inflation, this will put downward pressure on gold prices. Next week, in addition to Mr. Trump's inauguration, the US will also release weekly unemployment claims and S&P Flash PMI data and existing home sales... However, these economic data may will not have much impact on the gold price trend next week. 📌In terms of technical analysis, if the gold price next week surpasses the threshold of 2,725 USD/oz, it can continue to conquer the strong resistance area at 2,790 USD/oz, and the gold price next week could even exceed 2,800 USD/oz. /oz if Mr. Trump's tariff commitment comes true after his inauguration. Meanwhile, the important support level for gold price next week is at 2,650 USD/oz. (Around the moving average EMA34, 89) Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,700 – 2,693 – 2,676USD Resistance: 2,730 – 2,750USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2791 - 2789⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2795 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2645
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
SL HIT ON NASDAQAs I post my winning trades, I'm going to post my losing one, so people, especially beginners know that trading isn't always wins and wins, and no strategy always brings back profits for you. Every strategy has downsides and upsides, this is the first thing I teach to my students who fully understands it. In case you wondered how I trade, I'm a reversal based trader. hich means I trade reversals, ans as every strategy it works 80% of the time and having a losing day of the week, but the unforgivable thing is to let your emotions take over your trading and lose all the profits you made. The first thing I teach is don't let your emotions take over your trading, and don't make more than 2 losing trades a day. STICK TO THE PLAN. Follow for more!
FX:NAS100
by YassineAnalysis
GOLD is close to the target level of 2,730 USDIn the Asian trading session, today's weekend January 17, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains a strong trend, gold price is currently around 2,716 USD/ounce, close to the previous target increase at 2,730 USD/ounce. OANDA:XAUUSD rose to a more than one-month high on Thursday as the latest U.S. economic data weighed on U.S. Treasury yields and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 11 increased by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted level of 217,000. Economists had expected 210,000 initial jobless claims last week. Slightly weaker-than-expected US core CPI data led to a sharp fall in real yields, which should support further gains in gold prices on inflation fears and repricing of taper expectations interest rate. Federal Reserve officials said data showed inflation in the US was continuing to slow, but they also noted growing uncertainty in the coming months as they wait for early policy signs. from the incoming administration of US President Donald Trump. Potential tariffs from the Trump administration could exacerbate inflationary pressures. The dollar fell, moving slightly from recent highs, as cooling US inflation data pulled bond yields down, continuing to support gold prices. And this is what we can most easily see about the alignment in these correlations in the market. Meanwhile, geopolitically, the ceasefire and hostage agreement between Israel and Hamas has weakened demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Last year, as tensions in the Middle East increased, gold hit several new highs on safe-haven demand and expectations that major central banks like the Federal Reserve would ease monetary policy further. again. But this is not enough because geopolitical factors can have a sudden impact, but they are never sustainable long-term causes. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has continued to break out, approaching the target level of 2,730 USD. Note to readers in the previous edition the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Along with that, the uptrend is still dominating the daily chart, the uptrend price channel is highlighted by the green price channel, and the uptrend RSI maintains its above activity. The 50 level is still quite far from the overbought area, showing that there is still wide room for price increases ahead. The main support is still at the POC Volume Profile level and the EMA21 line. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future. Currently, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level has also become the closest support currently. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following notable technical levels. Support: 2,700 – 2,693USD Resistance: 2,730USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2736 - 2734⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2740 →Take Profit 1 2729 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2724 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2684 - 2686⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2680 →Take Profit 1 2691 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2696
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Supported by data, GOLD skyrocketed with room to increaseDue to weaker-than-expected US core inflation data, the US Dollar TVC:DXY weakened and the market also rekindled expectations that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not be over yet, gold prices increased sharply. Technical factors also continue the upward price structure. US inflation is lower than expected The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, slightly above the 0.3% forecast. of economists. The overall CPI inflation rate increased by 2.9% over the same period last year, in line with expectations. Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.2% year-on-year, slower than November data and below economists' median estimate of 3.3%. economic survey by Dow Jones. Gold prices were supported and jumped by weaker-than-expected US core inflation data, causing US Treasury yields to fall sharply. Core CPI was slightly lower than expected. This is a positive signal for gold because the corollary is that the Fed will not necessarily rule out cutting interest rates, although the possibility of cutting interest rates in January is not high, but some rate cuts Capacity is still expected before the end of the year. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but because it earns no interest, its appeal to investors diminishes in higher interest rate environments and vice versa in low interest rate environments. Focus on key US economic data Today (Thursday), financial markets focus on US retail sales, data on initial jobless claims and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Economists expect U.S. retail sales to rise 0.6% month-over-month in December, down from 0.7% in November. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise from 201,000 to 210,000 in the week ending January 11. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after ending the technical correction and receiving support from the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level that readers should pay attention to in previous publications, gold has continued to increase to continue. current bullish cycle. With an active position above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level gold is likely to continue rising with a subsequent target at around $2,730 upon breaking the $2,700 base price. In the short term, gold has achieved its target increase at 2,700 USD, however, the room for price increases is still quite wide ahead with the Relative Strength Index pointing up, operating above 50 and still at quite far from the overbought level. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still bullish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,693 – 2,676USD Resistance: 2,700 – 2,730USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2725 →Take Profit 1 2714 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2709 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2672 - 2674⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2668 →Take Profit 1 2679 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2684
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: The bull channel is clear and valid until broken. I do think a bigger pull-back is overdue but until then, bulls are in control. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2670 - 2770 bull case: Bulls want to print above 2761 and make a new high above the December high. If they can get it, we could see more upside to 2800 since there is no more resistance afterwards. the bull channel is tight and no matter how you count it, we had at least 3 legs up and betting on a 4th is a losing strategy in most cases. Invalidation is below 2700. bear case: Bears doing not enough and if they fail at 2761, we will go 2800+ again. Not much to interpret here. We are still in a bull channel on the 1h tf and bears would need a 1h bar close below the 20ema for a start. The previous times we got above 2740, we printed huge bear reversal bars and I am hoping for another one tomorrow. Bears are also seeing this as at least 3 legs up and they want another decent pull-back for at least 50 points like the prior ones. Invalidation is above 2765. short term: Neutral. Waiting for bears to come around here at big resistance. If they fail, we see 2800 soon. No bigger interest in buying this. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 1h tf at 2722 before EU open. Otherwise just any pullback to the 1h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above. Invalidation is below 5950. bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish. Invalidation is above 6020. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD recovers to original target, paying attention to US CPIOANDA:XAUUSD recovered strongly and is currently traded quite narrowly. US PPI data has reinforced investor confidence in the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further this year. In addition, Trump's report on tariffs also affected the USD, helping push gold prices higher. On Wednesday, investors are focused on the US CPI, which is expected to cause a big swing in the markets. US PPI data and Trump's tariff report influence the USD US PPI unexpectedly came in lower than expected in December, driven by lower food costs and firm service prices, which may help ease concerns about persistent price pressure. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the U.S. PPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in December, an increase less than the 3.5% expected. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.5% year-on-year, below expectations of 3.8%. US PPI increased 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the 0.4% increase in November and below market expectations of 0.4%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged from the previous month, missing economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase and the previous month's 0.2% increase. After the US PPI data was released, the US Dollar fell again. A weaker US Dollar makes gold more attractive. Bloomberg reports that members of US President-elect Donald Trump's incoming economic team are discussing gradually increasing taxes month by month to increase their negotiating leverage incrementally, while also helping to avoid rising inflation. mutation. One idea is to build a progressive tax schedule with monthly increases of about 2% to 5%, said people familiar with the matter. The plan would also need to rely on executive powers granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This news also affected the US Dollar, causing gold prices to recover. Pay attention to US CPI Investors are now waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday to analyze the Fed's policy direction. The US CPI is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.9% in December, higher than the previous month's 2.7% increase, while the month-on-month CPI increase in the month 12 is expected to be 0.3%. . If Wednesday's US CPI report is lower than expected, it could increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will ease policy this year, which would benefit gold. And of course the opposite effect is if the data is higher than expected. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but due to its non-interest-bearing nature, a high interest rate environment weakens its investment appeal. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading very narrowly but as mentioned to readers in previous publications that gold has achieved the initial technical conditions for a possible price increase. With the short-term trend formed by the green price channel and support from EMA21, POC Volume Profile. After the previous correction, gold has also recovered from the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level to reach the initial target at 2,676 USD, the next target will be around 2,693 - 2,700 USD. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index maintained above 50 is a positive signal for an uptrend in the near future while still quite far from the overbought area. During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable points will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,664 – 2,650USD Resistance: 2,676 – 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2694 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2689 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2645 →Take Profit 1 2656 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2661
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-01-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral around 6000. Market is close to the daily 20ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. I won’t even think about longing this but it’s obviously wrong to short too early. As long as bulls keep it above 5950, they are good and in full control of the market. Targets above are 6030 and then 5050. If bulls break above the bear trend line, there aren’t many reasons why we could not just melt to 6100+. comment: Huge bull day but right at multiple prior resistances. Bad buy no matter how you put it. I would actually not be surprised if we trade below 5950 or lower tomorrow. We have been going wildly up and down in this bear wedge/channel and that pattern is valid until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls got the big move from the CPI news and they want to test the bear trend line and break above it. It’s just not a good buy and hoping for a breakout. I won’t make stuff up here. If bulls break above 6020, next target is 6068 and then 6100. Invalidation is below 5795. bear case: Bears need anything to stop the rally. They have good arguments with the daily ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. They came around the prior weeks and until that bear trend line is broken, I expect them to keep this a lower high as well. It would be pretty funny if we completely reverse today before we go into the weekend. Invalidation is above 6030. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 15m chart around 5956 was good.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
MNQ CPI News Drop Rallies the marketLooks like price has seen an impressive Bullish reaction today from the 0830 news drop that took out the past days highs that was housing a ton of BSL. Conveniently, price seems to be drawing into the D SIBI and is in close proximity to the High from Wed 08 Jan 2025. I can see price trading into the SIBI and finding some sort of rejection. Now to go forward does this make my Bias Bullish leaving the focus on the SSL at 20640.00? No not just yet because I would like to see how price trades and respects the three Premium Arrays being the D -OB, D Volume Imbalance, and the D SIBI. If price is Bullish then it should see little resistance from the CE level and the MT of the D -OB but if price is Bearish then we will see it respect a Premium Array and then continue lower. So far there is a nice sweep on SSL and the CPI rally could be the Displacement and MSS that price needed to make to turn things around to become Bullish and start to hunt the Highs for BSL from the Mon and Tue highs of last week.
CME_MINI:MNQH2025
by ProphetTheTrader
1