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#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Strong consecutive bull bars in a trading range but still a lower high. Once bulls break above 2406, market is free to go back above 2440 but I wait for confirmation. Bears not having good arguments here for reversing this. Only a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema would raise the odds for the bears. Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls keeping it above support but can not print consecutive daily closes above the daily 20ema. Will probably see a breakout over the next 1-2 weeks. comment: Bulls got the breakout above and 2 good looking bull bars above the daily 20ema. Above 2407 we can expect bears to give up and a retest of 2460 or higher. Market is amazingly symmetrical. 3 tries to drop below 2300 and we are probably seeing the 3rd try at printing above 2477 over the next days. It’s a big trading range and I will long this above 2407 for 2460+ and will short this above 2460, once market turns around again. Maybe bulls can print a higher high or maybe they don’t, it does not matter since you wait for the clear reversal before shorting again. On the weekly and monthly tf market is having huge tails above the bars and market has not closed a monthly bar above 2350. After this retest of 2460/2500, I expect a deeper pullback to the low of this current bull wedge/channel 2250 and likely even deeper over the next 6-12 months down to the big bull trend line starting 2018, which would be around 2000. current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2407 is broken. If bulls break above, trading range is expanded again up to 2480 key levels: 2300 - 2480 bull case: Bulls are right below the previous high at 2406 and the move up is strong enough to give the odds here to the bulls. Market tried repeatedly to break below 2300 and could not do it, so bears giving up here and want to short higher for better value. Measured move from Thu/Fri would bring us exactly to 2465. Another reason for this up move is the weekly 20ema which is at 2310 and we missed it by a couple of points. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: Bears failed 3 times at 2300 over the past 4 weeks and now want higher prices for better shorts, which means they are mostly giving up. They know that we are in a trading range for 3 months and the r:r for shorts above 2460 is much better than for the bulls. Bears need to keep the monthly closes below 2350 or risk attracting more bulls buying high. Invalidation is above 2510. outlook last week: “short term: Neutral. Play the triangle.” → Last Sunday we traded 2339 and now we are at 2397. Perfect outlook. short term: Neutral until break above 2407. Bullish above medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged current swing trade: Will go long above 2407 and look for shorts above 2460. Chart update: Removed bear trend lines.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202428 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 3 Best looking bull bars very late in the trend, breaking above two strong resistance lines. 75% that this is a bull trap and we break down Mo/Tu below 5580 and be on our way to test the daily 20ema and the lower bull wedge/channel line. Will short this on weakness on Monday. Next 500-1000 points are made to the downside. Can I be wrong? Absolutely and everything can and will happen in the markets. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Yadayadayada. Quote from last week: comment: Bulls got their retest as written and now market is technically free to have a major trend reversal. June was a perfect bull trend from the beginning of the month. Market had 3 legs up with a two legged correction completed now. We could spend more time at the highs in a trading range or have a deeper pullback from here, which is my preferred path forward. The bull trend line will probably be tested around 5460 and there market will decide if it wants to stay above 5400 or get down to 5320/5350. comment: Market tested 5500 twice and since it found no sellers down there, bears stepped aside and bulls printed 3 climactic bull bars very very late in this trend. The odds that this is a legit breakout above multiple resistance lines is very low. Much more likely is a bull trap and market will reverse over the next 1-5 days. current market cycle: Bull trap and the end of this trend is near. Will soon see a deeper pullback and we will form a trading range where the low is 5000. key levels: 5500 - 5630 bull case: Bulls see this AI bubble as legit and markets can only go up. Breaking above the bull trend line from 2023-01 is ok bc Daddy Jensen is signing breasts. That the markets are only held by 7 stocks is also a big buy signal since most eco indicators are puking. Don’t know what to tell you here. Market can obviously go much higher for longer and we can print a couple of higher highs. But I will never join the “this time it’s different” crowd. The only sure thing before bubbles popping is that markets print more and more ridiculous highs while more and more people say “it’s really different this time” and they always popped and always will. That’s the nature of the game. Am I saying you should short this right now? No. Do you want to buy this at 5621? If your answer is yes, I do hope you make money, enjoy my letter and take something from it. Invalidation is below 5580. bear case: 16 Month old bull trend line and couple of more where market want’s to break above on low volume and declining economic activity across the board. Good luck with that. Will never buy into the frenzy. Bull trap most likely and I want to see strong selling before joining. Bears first target is 5500 and shortly after probably the gap close to 5430. Invalidation is above 5630. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until bears get follow through and print lower lows below 5500. I’d short to 5490 and see how market reacts to the daily ema. If the support is weak, more shorting to 5450ish. Absolutely no interest in buying here. → Last Sunday we traded 5521 and now we are at 5621. Meh outlook. Was bearish if market would go below 5500 but it never did, so nothing lost or gained here. short term: Most likely outcome for me is a bull trap above 5600 and we will see a correction over the next weeks. I wait for bear strength before shorting. I will only continue to buy quick momentum scalps if we continue upwards. medium-long term: Bearish if the latest climactic top turns out to be a trap and we trade below 5580 again. If so, we will see a bigger correction down to at least 5450 in the near term and likely also 5300. Still think 5000 will be hit in 2024. current swing trade: None Chart update: Removed the smaller two legged correction and added another bull gap highlighter. Double top did obviously not hold but I still think this is a bull trap and a bigger two legged move sideways to down is more likely.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
3
BTC - Update on my Short / Strategy I suspect that Bitcoin will break down and hit 7,000 to 10,000. I’ve heard many remarks about this being unrealistic or impossible, but the reality is the chart is respecting the prediction and trendlines. While bitcoin can execute a zig zag pattern (34,000 - 45,000 - 8,000) - it technically doesn’t have to. If the TA pattern supports a move to be executed by a measured move, there is no way of stating what’s possible or not in the path towards that level. As an update to my TA - I’d like you to encourage yourself to stay open minded that if that low level is hit, it isn’t an apocalypse - it’s a measured drop from a technical analysis pattern. Assuming this does in fact happen, most people would be too fearful to buy in at that zone - and I am in fact encouraging you to do that. Suspect a resistance level is approximate around 55,700 to 56,000 God speed
Short
by DickDandy
9
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [June 24 - June 28]On Friday (June 21), when data released by S&P Global showed that US PMI data for June were generally better than expected, the US Dollar strengthened and spot gold plummeted more than 38 USD. Spot gold closed down 1.63% at $2,321.64/ounce; Spot gold prices decreased 0.47% this week, with a total trading range between 2,368.74 and 2,306.68 USD. COMEX gold futures closed down 1.45% at $2,373.80/ounce; COMEX silver futures closed down 4.03 U.S. business activity hit a 26-month high in June amid a recovery in employment and a significant reduction in price pressures. The US Dollar Index (Dxy), closed up 0.16% at 105.83 on Friday. • Data released on Friday showed the June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI U.S. prelim was 51.7, the forecast was 51 and the previous was 51.3. • The initial value of services PMI is 55.1, the expected value is 53.7 and the previous value is 54.8. • The initial comprehensive PMI value is 54.6, the expected value is 53.5 and the previous value is 54.5. This is the highest level since April 2022, following May's 54.5. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 65.9% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September, little changed from late Thursday. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and this supports gold prices. Market uncertainty remains extremely high as markets try to guess the Fed's next move. About the Fed this past week Several Fed officials spoke during the past trading week, with many emphasizing that more evidence of cooling inflation is needed before cutting interest rates. These statements supported the trend of the US Dollar during the week. • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that the Fed will bring inflation back to its 2% target, but estimated it could take 1 - 2 years. • Chicago Fed President Goolsby said Thursday that policymakers will be able to cut interest rates if inflation continues to cool as it did last month. In an interview Thursday, Goolsby talked about the May consumer prices report, which showed core inflation fell for the second straight month. • Fed Governor Coogler said Tuesday that it could be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates "later this year" if economic conditions develop as she expects. • St. Fed President Louis Mussallem said in his first major policy speech that it may take "several quarters" of data to support an interest rate cut. • New York Fed President Williams and Fed President Richmond Barkin were reluctant to provide a specific time frame for interest rate cuts, but all officials emphasized the important role of economic data in the process. policy promotion process. • Philadelphia Fed President Harker said Monday that based on his current forecast, he thinks a rate cut this year is appropriate. This underscores the signal that interest rates may remain high. • Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed will wait until December before cutting interest rates. Federal Reserve policymakers have kept borrowing costs at their highest level in nearly a year and appear to be in no hurry to lower them. Just last week, Fed officials expected just one rate cut in 2024, down from three forecast in March. Notable economic data and events next week Tuesday: US consumer confidence index Wednesday: US new home sales index Thursday: Final Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, core durable goods, US pending home sales index Friday: PCE price index, personal income and spending Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold failed to break the channel edge and the key technical point highlighted by readers in Friday's edition, it came under strong selling pressure. Selling pressure to bring gold prices back into position is also very important for the uptrend from the price channel in the short term, the closing level is also around the technical point of 2,324 USD. In terms of closing position, gold has conditions to continue falling with the target level possibly aiming at the original price point of 2,300 USD in the short term, however this will be more positive when the price channel is broken below. Returning to the price channel and falling below the 21-day moving average (EMA21) is a negative sign for gold prices from a technical perspective. The price channel noticed is a downtrend. The overall technical picture is constantly changing with very large price movements occurring regularly, and currently technical conditions are more supportive of the bearish possibility although there is still support in the pipeline. short term mentioned above. In the near term, the technical outlook is temporarily inclined to the possibility of price decline with main pressure from EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.236%. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,320 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 📌Short-term trading plan for next week: on the H1 chart, we will initially watch to sell around the 2342 mark, and buy if the price drops to around the 2260 mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls below 2,330 USD, capital flows into China Gold ETFOANDA:XAUUSD falling rapidly again after recovering in yesterday's trading session, the current drop is around 9$ on the day to below 2,330$ and reported at the time of publication to be finished at 2,325$ or down 0.40%. . Investors are looking forward to US inflation data later this week, which could influence the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The data focus this week is on Friday's US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the labor market is "about" to reach an inflection point and that further weakness will mean a rise in unemployment. Daly's comments showed she was leaning towards a dovish stance, adding: "Inflation is not the only risk we face right now." Four other Fed officials are being closely watched, including Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman, who are expected to speak this week. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 67.1% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in September. According to Bank of America, China Gold ETF continued to see capital inflows, increasing by 253 million USD. This is the 6th consecutive month of capital inflow. China's gold ETF purchases have been driven by stock market weakness, a depreciating local currency and falling bond yields, with holdings now at a record high. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), market forces still appear to provide a solid foundation as about 20 central banks surveyed expect to increase their gold holdings next year. Bank of America said China's physical market was slightly weaker but remained generally supportive, with jewelry sales continuing to hover near seasonal highs. Likewise, China's domestic market prices are still higher than international prices. Another notable piece of data is that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said that as of the week of June 18, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts increased by 11,984 lots to 189,533 lot. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is declining after recovering and approaching the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which is noted as the closest technical resistance on the daily gold price chart. . Although gold has declined, the price decline has not brought price activity below the price channel, the short-term trend price channel, this means gold still has support factors from the lower edge of the price channel and the technical level of 2,324 USD. comments to readers in yesterday's edition. Although gold still has bullish conditions, the lower edge of the price channel produced a significant recovery yesterday and now if it breaks below gold could face further sell-off. same target around 2,305 – 2,300USD, so open long positions should be protected after the price channel breaks below. During the day, gold still has a technical upside prospect with notable positions being listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,320USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344 ⚰️SL: 2350 ⬆️TP1: 2339 ⬆️TP2: 2334 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-07-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - SP500 and Nasdaq outdid themselves today again. You still can’t convince me this is another breakout above. SP500 is still marginally higher and it’s a trading range at the highs. Nasdaq broke above the bull wedge and channel and I absolutely expect it to fail over the next 1-5 days and trade down below 20000. Commodities - Gold had a huge bull break above previous support and above the upper triangle line. The pullback tested that line and market held above. If bulls confirm this tomorrow, we will see 2400 and probably higher again. Oil printed a lower high below 84 but bears would need strong selling from here on and a lower low below 82 to confirm it. Oil could trade more sideways before another breakout to either side. Bitcoin continued perfectly inside the bear trend and dropped below 60000 again. Bulls might try one more time to get above 62000 but if this one fails, decent chance we will test 50000 next. It’s a strong sell the rip market and you should not look to buy. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Strong follow through for the bulls since bears could not keep it below 5580. Made a new ath but still not above 5600. Bulls were strong enough that we can expect 5600 to print at least once. Can they get another push up? I have no idea. Still inside the margins of this trading range at the top but I won’t rule out that we can’t print 5650 or higher. Today’s data was really bad but market did not care. No reason why it should turn around tomorrow on low volume or on a Friday. I won’t get tired writing it. If you are bullish at this stage of this bull cycle, no one can help you. Not saying you should not get long on days like today but your long term longs should have a tight stops. Once the euphoria vanishes, it will go down fast when everyone will look for the exit. It’s as unsustainable as it gets. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 5560 - 5600 bull case: Bulls want to keep the party going and if they can stay above the 1h 20ema, they could do another leg up. No deeper reasoning here. If big green bars appear again, buy. Invalidation is below 5560. bear case: No idea if bears step aside for another leg. Can see this turning here after more sideways movement. I would not expect big swings on a US holiday tomorrow. Invalidation is above 5610. short term: Neutral af again. At multiple resistances I won’t do anything. Will look for longs on strong buying near the 1h ema or the lower bull wedge line. If bears appear, need a break of both mentioned before shorting. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy anything. 5m 20ema was your guide today. Could have literally bought any touch.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD has rising technical conditions, geopolitical risksDespite the increase in the US Dollar and US Bond Yields, spot gold prices still increased by nearly 32 USD in yesterday's trading day, currently reported at about 2,360 USD/ounce. Data released by the US on Thursday showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US in the week to June 15 was 238,000, compared to the previous forecast of 235,000. The number of new homes built in the US in May fell to the slowest level in four years as rising interest rates weakened the housing sector's growth momentum earlier this year. Data showed new home construction in the US fell at an annual rate of 5.5% in May, compared with expectations for a 1.1% increase. In addition, the total number of construction permits in the US in May was 1.386 million, lower than the expected level of 1.45 million. Data last week showed labor market and price pressures were easing, while weak retail sales data released on Tuesday showed economic activity remained sluggish in the second quarter. According to data from CME Fed's "FedWatch," traders currently see about a 64.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Because gold does not yield interest, interest rates are falling, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and driving up gold prices. Rising geopolitical risks have fueled gold's bullish trend. Tensions are rising in the Middle East as Israel threatens to attack Lebanon. Combined with the recently signed agreement between Russia and North Korea through President Putin's state visit, this could increase the appeal of gold as it increases geopolitical risks in the region. , is currently trading near key resistance levels reported to readers in yesterday's edition. Gold is still rising on safe-haven demand as global geopolitical threat levels rise again and global powers move troops on the global strategic chessboard. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is temporarily limited by key resistance that readers noticed in yesterday's edition after gold moved above the EMA21 level and broke out of the price channel. The current $2,364 technical level is the nearest notable resistance and once it is broken gold has the wherewithal to head for a new bull run with a near-term target of $2,400 raw price. On the overall technical picture, gold is technically well positioned to rally with the nearest support noted by the EMA21 level, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, and the $2,345 technical point as previous resistance for now. is to become support. During the day, gold's technical outlook supports the possibility of price increases with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,364USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2400 - 2398 ⚰️SL: 2404 ⬆️TP1: 2393 ⬆️TP2: 2388 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2329 - 2331 ⚰️SL: 2325 ⬆️TP1: 2336 ⬆️TP2: 2341
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-07-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: What a bull day… Just straight up buying all the way up. Market did not touch the 15m ema once since 30mins before us open. Happy for everyone who were long since below 19970 and held. Still a lower high but given the strength of today, some follow through is expected. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 19700 - 20100 bull case: Bulls want a measured move up from the strong buying today, which could bring this to 20600. Sounds insane but that’s what the chart is showing. First target for the bulls is till to make this a higher high again and for that they need to trade above 20273. If they do that, I don’t think this will be stopped until a much higher ath. Invalidation is below 20100. bear case: Not having much for the bears here. They just vanished today since US open. They need to do everything they can to keep this a lower high below 20273 or bulls will make a new ath. IF bears can reverse this, 20000 is the magnet we are oscillating around. I don’t have much fantasy how this market could do another meltup to be honest but price is truth and the chart is screaming “*explicit* your puts” and wants higher. Invalidation is above 20273. short term: Max bullish above 20273 for new ath but inner bear in me hopes this reverses again. I don’t have any open positions on this. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: just buy anywhere around the us open and hold. 15m ema was not touched once.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
#BTCDOMUSDT #1D (Binance Futures) Ascending trendline breakdownBitcoin Dominance is pulling back towards 50MA resistance on daily, seems likely to get rejected next. ⚡️⚡️ #BTCDOM/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: Binance Futures Signal Type: Regular (Short) Leverage: Isolated (6.0X) Amount: 6.0% Current Price: 2374.2 Entry Targets: 1) 2411.5 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 2010.3 Stop Targets: 1) 2612.6 Published By: @Zblaba BINANCE:BTCDOMUSDT.P CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D #Bitcoin #Dominance #Index Risk/Reward= 1:2.0 Expected Profit= +99.8% Possible Loss= -50.0%
Short
by TradingOn
GOLD approaching 2,340USD, technical outlook analysisOn Thursday (June 20) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price once approached the mark of 2,340 USD/ounce, increasing nearly 11 USD during the day. Regarding basic content, there is currently no sudden impact on the market. Earlier Data released on Tuesday showed US retail sales barely grew in May, with last month's data revised down sharply, suggesting economic activity remained sluggish in the second quarter. CME's FedWatch tool shows that the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased slightly to 64.1% from 61% a day earlier. In terms of the overall fundamental picture, the main factor shaping the gold price trend remains the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although gold prices have increased, the current trend is still unclear because the market is waiting for more decisive news. The basic principle is that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, meaning gold prices will benefit when interest rates are lower or expectations of interest rate cuts become stronger. The market is expecting at least one interest rate cut from the Fed. The value of the US Dollar has been fully valued in this. So unless this changes significantly, gold prices are expected to remain supported for a long time to come. However, with a trading week that sees little major macro data, the immediate focus will be on US weekly jobless claims data on Thursday and preliminary PMI figures on Thursday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still maintaining its recovery momentum from the $2,300 level and is now once again testing the technical confluence that is the pressure sent to readers in previous publications in the $2,340 - $2,345 area. This is the price area of ​​the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the upper edge of the trend price channel, horizontal resistance of 2,345USD. As long as gold remains below EMA21 and within the price channel, the technical outlook remains more bearish. On the other hand, if gold falls below $2,324 it will continue to tend to retest the $2,300 - $2,305 area in the short term. Next, a new bearish cycle will be ushered in once the $2,300 level is broken below. It is worth noting that in case the gold price moves above the EMA21, breaking the price channel, the bearish outlook will no longer be positive, but instead the increase could head towards 2,364USD in the short term and more than that. original price 2,400USD. So, for open short positions should be protected behind EMA21, after the $2,345 level is broken. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans to the downside with the following technical levels noted. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2356 - 2354 ⚰️SL: 2360 ⬆️TP1: 2349 ⬆️TP2: 2344 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306 ⚰️SL: 2300 ⬆️TP1: 2311 ⬆️TP2: 2316
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls see the green support line and want to keep it support and keep the market above 2300/2320. They stalled the market long enough that not enough bears want to push their luck, selling the lows here. They also managed to print 2 bars above the daily ema, which makes the market more neutral. comment: Keeping this very short bc the tl;dr almost covered it all. Trading range and a descending triangle. Huge support 2300 and until either that or the upper triangle bear line is broken, it’s as neutral as it gets. Buy low, sell high and scalp. 55/45 imo that bears get a breakout below but do you really want to bet on those odds? I don’t. current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2385 is broken. key levels: 2300 - 2385 / below 2300 comes 2270 in play bull case: Bulls keeping it above support but can not print consecutive daily closes above the daily 20ema. Will probably see a breakout over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: Bears need a strong break below 2300, that’s it. Invalidation is above 2385. outlook last week: “short term: Play the triangle if the support holds. ” → Last Sunday we traded 2331 and now we are at 2339. Triangle held. Good outlook. short term: Neutral. Play the triangle. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged current swing trade: None and won’t enter. Just scalps for me. Chart update: Made the support more obvious.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Ivory Coast Expects Cocoa Rebound Next Season on Better Weather Country expects to harvest 2 million tons in 2024-25 crop year Futures prices have dipped on improved cocoa crop outlook Ivory Coast’s cocoa output is expected to rebound next season — helping ease a global supply squeeze that pushed prices past records — as the world’s top grower banks on better weather. The West African producer is likely to harvest 2 million tons of the chocolate-making ingredient in the 2024-25 crop year that starts Oct. 1, according to people familiar with the matter, who cited early pod counting. The outlook for the upcoming year compares with the 1.8 million tons the International Cocoa Organization estimates the country will harvest by the end of the current season in September. Ivory Coast’s output averaged 2.2 million tons in the five years before 2023-24. The country has already sold 800,000 tons of the 2024-25 harvest on the forward market, the people said, asking not to be named because they were not authorized to discuss the matter. However, they added forward sales have since been paused by the industry regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao. The CCC plans a combination of forward and spot sales in the future, as part of a marketing reform. A mix of bad weather, disease, and aging trees in top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana drove this season’s slump and saw New York cocoa futures soar past $11,000 a ton earlier this year. Prices have since eased on optimism about improving weather conditions in West Africa. Ghana is also expecting a better crop next season. Ivory Coast is also cracking down on the smuggling of cocoa beans to neighboring countries which will help boost supplies, said the people. An estimated 200,000 tons of beans were smuggled this season, they added. A spokesperson for the CCC declined to comment when contacted by phone on Friday.
PEPPERSTONE:COCOA
by Elite_Forex
GOLD recovers from $2,300, limited with main trendOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after falling to $2,300/ounce and rebounded to operate around $2,330/ounce. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds remained below 4.3% after the latest US data, helping gold prices rise on demand after the US Dollar weakened. OANDA:XAUUSD rose Tuesday after U.S. economic data showed a weaker-than-expected retail sales report led to curbs on consumer spending. This suggests the Federal Reserve could begin its easing cycle this year. The US Department of Commerce released retail sales data for May that improved compared to April. This data revived investors' hopes for an interest rate cut after the Fed signaled at its meeting. most recent meeting that current monetary policy is appropriate. Other data showed industrial production improved in May but was revised downward in April. In addition to economic data, Fed officials also speak at press conferences • New York Fed President John Williams said interest rates will gradually decline if deflation continues toward the Fed's annual core inflation target of 2%. While dodging questions about a September rate cut, he added: "I think things are moving in the right direction." • Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin appeared cautious, saying he would need to see more data before easing policy. Later, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she would not be enthusiastic about improving inflation data, adding that now is not the time to cut interest rates. • New St. Fed President Louis Alberto Mussallem said he needs to see how the deflation process progresses before voting to cut interest rates. He added that he favors raising interest rates if inflation stops, even though that is not his baseline forecast. While most policymakers are neutral, US Treasury yields reflect investors starting to evaluate a rate cut. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.219%. In addition to factors such as Macro Data and Fed officials, readers also need to pay special attention to issues such as geopolitical conflicts and precious metal trading activities of leading central banks, which This idea is always reminded through every publication sent to you. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold again recovered from the bearish price target area noticed by readers in previous publications at the support area of ​​2,305 – 2,300 USD. However, the recovery momentum is always limited by the resistance confluence created by EMA21, the 0.236% Fibonacci level and the upper edge of the price channel with the technical point 2,340 - 2,345USD. As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, its technical outlook remains bearish with the condition that a new bearish cycle will be ushered in once the $2,300 raw price level is broken below then target level. The target will be around 2,286 USD in the short term, more than the 2,272 USD price point of the Fibonacci 0.382%. During the day, the technical downtrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2339 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
2024-06-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. gold comment: Daily ema at 2346 and we closed 2339. Bulls can’t close above it and bears can’t break below 2300. Today was strong enough for bulls to try and get a second leg. Measured move is up to 2375ish. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2360 bull case: Bulls first target tomorrow is to stay above the 1h ema and then break above 2350. 2350 is big resistance until broken. If they manage to break it, high probability we see 2360+. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: Need a break below 2300. No better arguments for their case. Bears kinda tried down to 2304 but market stalled so long down there, that bears just gave up before EU open and market just melted higher. Was this a buy vacuum produced by bears stepping aside, rather than strong bulls buying? Will find out tomorrow. Invalidation is above 2350. short term: Odds favor the bulls for a second leg up but 2350 is big resistance until broken. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long anything after bar 6 broke above the range and the 1h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD traded slightly down, main technical trendEntering the first phase of the week, OANDA:XAUUSD decreased slightly due to high US interest rates making gold less attractive. Gold is on the defensive as US Treasury yields rose after Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance. Even so, the US dollar has not received any significant support, and in foreign exchange trading the Dollar is still weaker than other major correlated currencies. • Fed officials say there will only be one rate cut in 2024, via Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari. Over the weekend, the Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari discussed monetary policy, saying it was "a reasonable forecast that the Fed will ease policy by just 25 basis points (bps) in 2024." That would send US bond yields higher, making holding gold less attractive while the federal funds rate remains elevated. • Fed Harker said that based on his current forecasts, he believes a rate cut this year is appropriate, underscoring the signal that interest rates will likely remain high. “If everything goes as expected, I think a rate cut would be appropriate later this year,” Harker said. The data is fine." So we'll still rely on the data." • Philadelphia Fed President now predicts economic growth will slow but remain above trend and the unemployment rate will increase modestly. He also believes that returning to the Fed's inflation target will be a "long process." • China's central bank paused an 18-month gold purchase, which also put pressure on gold prices. China's central bank's gold holdings held steady at 72.8 million ounces in May. In addition, the market is also paying close attention to upcoming comments from New York Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The US will release retail sales data on Tuesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday and preliminary purchasing managers index (PMI) data on Friday. These data are expected to help investors better understand current consumption levels and economic strength. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading modestly with a resistance confluence area created by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance at $2,345, the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and the upper edge. The price channel is the main pressure area. Meanwhile, the current technical trend of gold price is still leaning heavily towards the possibility of a price decrease with the main trend from the price channel. In the immediate future, the support levels for gold prices include 2,305 - 2,300 USD. If the original price level of 2,300 USD is broken below, it will open up conditions for a new decline in gold prices with the target at 2,286 USD in the short term. limit and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level. As long as gold remains within the channel and below the EMA21, its technical outlook remains bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,324 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2339 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Bulls got their expected pullback but on the daily it’s an inside bar. We are in a trading range and the market is probing for the fair price currently. Bulls want back to the highs again and bears want a second leg down to test the big bull trend line 19500ish. I expect more sideways price action tomorrow because I don’t think bears want bulls to get above 20000 before a second leg down. Above 20050 I’m wrong and we will probably get a retest above 20200 before another leg down. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged key levels: 19700 - 20100 bull case: Daily inside bar for the bulls, which means trading range. The buying today was reasonably strong that bulls will try for 20000 tomorrow and if they can get above 20060ish, most bears will probably give up. Current small bull trend line from 19725 has to hold though. Invalidation is below 19830. bear case: Bears shorted new highs and despite the 1% gain, market was two sided. Bears also kept it below 20000 which is the obvious price that both sides will fight for. Bears would need to break the bull trend line from 19725 by either breaking below or sideways out of it. Since bulls are again in massive BTFD mode, sideways will probably the best bears can get tomorrow. If they fail at 20k, I don’t think they will fight for 20080 much harder and they could give up for a quick melt to 20200+ again. Invalidation is above 20080. short term: Neutral 19900-20000, bearish below, bullish above medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 16 + 4. Bar 4 was a huge huge bar and you had to get long there.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil comment: Trading range at the highs but bears printing bigger bars and they broke out of the bull channel that started 2 weeks ago. Measured move down would bring us to around the breakout retest price area 78.5 / 78.8. Bulls still want to break above 82 for 83/84 and test the bear trend lines again. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 80 - 82 bull case: Bulls still see this as a second leg of a pullback around the lower bull trend line and they want to start their third leg (W5) up to 83/84. They need to keep it above 80 or bears might get cheeky and want to push it to the daily ema around 78.8, which would also be a breakout retest. Invalid below 80. bear case: Bears are not able to print two decent looking consecutive bear bars on higher time frames. Until they get much stronger or give up again, best they can probably hope for is sideways around 80. Selling today looks like a leg inside a trading range and not a stronger pullback below 80. short term: Neutral 80-82. It’s moving sideways. Don’t make it more complicated. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Clear key levels given
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds