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#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Day and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: My take last week was, that as long as bears keep it below 5400, we could be in a trading range. Bulls used the pullback on Tuesday for a new ath and got a strong follow through on Wednesday to pulverize that previous ath and trade above 5500. That target price was my first measured move target from early 2024 and it could continue up to 5600. Market refused to print a bear bar on Thursday and Friday which leaves the market maximum bullish going into next week. The big issue with that long trade is, you are buying right under the ath in a buy climax, in multiple wedges, far far above any ema. This trade risk:reward equation is as bad as it gets but the probability is high. But what is your target? You can join momentum but all of my calculated targets end at around 5600. Buying pullbacks is the reasonable thing to do until it stops working. My final thoughts on the market this week is the following chart, which speaks for itself. This is peak bubble behavior and the next 1000-2000 Points will be made on the downside. So given the current pattern of the s&p500 I do think we are in the last blow-off top of this bull cycle and will enter a trading range which will evolve into the new bear trend once we break below 5000. This market is made up of 7 stocks which get all the liquidity. My best guess on the path forward over the next months is in the weekly chart below. We will probably spend more time between 5000 - 5600 to form a credible top. A head & shoulders top would be the most probable outcome. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory again. Will end over the next weeks. key levels: 5400 - 5600 bull case: Bulls buying it all on the 7 stocks. Volume on this up move since May is absolute atrocious but that does not help anyone so far. It’s only going up and as long as bulls keep making money literally buying every dip, we continue up. I have 3 wave series leading up to 5500-5600 and all end there. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: What do the bears have going for them? Nothing and if anything, pure speculation and low probability stuff. The chart is showing multiple wedges, we are clearly in multiple third pushes up (W5) and volume is drying up. Once the institutions begin taking profits on the magnificent 7, we will see big moves down to end the trend and enter a trading range. The bull trend line around 5300 will be hit in the next 2-4 weeks and afterwards I think we will form a lower high before we will be on our way to 5000 again. As of now I think bears want to see a big climactic bull bar to 5600 before they begin shorting again. Invalidation is above 5620. outlook last week: “Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday.” → Last Sunday we traded 5355 and now we are at 5502. 5500 was my target if bulls trade above 5400 and I hope you made some of those 100 points. Good outlook it was. short term: No interest in buying here unless it’s a momentum scalp. I will look for weakness and a trade back to a test of the daily 20ema which is around 5400. Bulls are still heavily favored in terms of probability. medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. 5600 could be hit but the next bigger points are made trading back down to 5300 and 5000 over the next weeks/months. current swing trade: None Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Two-legged correction down to 5000 over the next 4-8 weeks, followed by a last lower high before the next big bear trend will begin. That’s only price-wise but not time wise. Could get there much faster or much slower.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#LTCUSDT #1h (OKX Futures) Descending trendline breakoutLitecoin printed a dragonfly doji on 50MA support, looks bullish for the days to come. ⚡️⚡️ #LTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: OKX Futures Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (9.0X) Amount: 4.8% Current Price: 78.97 Entry Targets: 1) 78.32 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 81.98 Stop Targets: 1) 76.49 Published By: @Zblaba CRYPTOCAP:LTC OKX:LTCUSDT.P #Litecoin #PoW litecoin.org Risk/Reward= 1:2.0 Expected Profit= +42.1% Possible Loss= -21.0% Estimated Gaintime= 2-3 days
Long
by TradingOn
DXY - Long Trade Idea (ICT)Hi guys! I feel like the Dollar Index is primed to move higher. It has so far been acting how I have anticipated, respecting institutional order flow. Let's breakdown what has happening, and my thought process around it. In May, price retraced after a consolidation, engineering equal highs. This bodes well for my bullish outlook. Price bottomed it's retracement on the 7th June 2024. If you check the Dollar futures chart took out buyside liquidity and created an SMT divergence on the DXY chart. Because of this, I am more confident in price not coming down to take out the relative equal lows below. Price expanded from there, and retraced into a weekly wick CE coupled with a daily bullish Orderblock, halting in its tracks and expanding higher again. The sudden drop and equally sudden recover adds additional confluence to my bullish outlook, not because of the "strength" but because of the manipulation of sentiment. Now we are re-entering a previously used weekly SIBI for the potential of using it as an iFVG. We did not close the weekly conventionally higher than the actual iFVG, as I would usually like, but the bullishness of the previous week's candle leaves the idea open of us expanding higher in the coming week with little retracement below it's open, therefore creating a BISI that may or may not be used later. As for targets, first is the previous month's high that is coupled with equal highs. The two other targets are a weekly swing high that goes way back, and a New Week Opening Gap which is deeper into the general liquidity void residing above. If you enjoyed this analysis, leave a like or a comment. If you want to learn how to analyze like this, check out my profile for more videos and information. Happy Trading! - R2F
TVC:DXYLong
by Road_2_Funded
2024-06-12 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment What a time to be alive. Bulls got another huge breakout to the upside which opens new targets above. There is a reasonable chance that this bubble continues much further than anyone could ever dream of, just like all the Nvidia employee’s who sold their stock < 100. Couple more days and half of the sp500 will be made of 7 companies. Bears are not getting any help from the news side and bulls are just peak euphoric. Buying everything anytime is making money, so this will continue until it stops. Dax, Russel2000 and DJI are not participating which speaks to the concentration of the price advances to a small basket of stocks. Commodities had big reversal days, producing bad looking bull bars on the daily chart. Gold was rejected at the daily 20ema and Oil reversed after peaking above the bear trend line from April. I expect more weakness tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: My daily chart is ugly, yes i know. Works though. I have painted 3 wave series for you, which all end around 5500-5600. I won’t write more about this. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5300 - 5600 bull case: Bulls did it again. A minor pull-back is expected though. Given that tomorrow is Friday, I would not be surprised if we do another 1-2% day to just get this bull trend over with. Straight melt up. Anything below 5360 would be a huge surprise. Invalidation is below 5360. bear case: CPI came in soft and the FED is not having any effect on markets currently. Melt up was inevitable. Bears not doing anything and waiting for more bulls to show signs of exhaustion and profit taking. 5500-5600 is where I expect selling pressure to rise again. The 38 point drop from ath 5454 was a bit unexpected tbh but the 1h ema held. Invalidation is above 5460. short term: As long was the 1h ema holds and market stays above 5400, it’s max bullishness. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just higher lows since Globex, market showed signs of knowing the CPI print, because it went max long into the release and every one tick dip was bought.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Should I buy Axis Bank in FNO for positional trade?It is said that RSI has the power to fool you... There is a bearish divergence in the daily chart of Axis Bank Fut but if you notice, RSI has gone up tin the overbought zone multiple times but hasn't broken the 30 mark on the downside. RSI basically indicates strength and it not breaking the oversold range at 30 means that the stock has strength and that the divergence may be false. Secondly, the candles are trading comfortably above 21 and 50 EMA which is again a buy signal. Now, let's talk about Fibonacci retracement. The stock in in an uptrend and there was a retracement as expected. The prices went down and took support at 0.382 (1092.95) and bounced right back up and easily crossed not only 0.50 (1122.50) and 0.618 (1152.05) but looks like it is holding strong above it. Now, if this continues, the upside can easily be around 1247.70 and 1315.80 but then there is selling pressure as well so I will watch the support at 1122.50 which is the 0.50 level because 50 EMA stands above it at 1169.93.
NSE:AXISBANK1!Long
by travellingtradermumbai
#ES_F Day Trading Prep for Week 6.09 - 6.14Last Week : Last week it looked like we found balance inside the Value of 5368 - 5207 Range and I was early trying to call a potential Intraday balance range to be spending time around, instead market pushed back into VAH which was the spot where many were shorting the first time around and most likely the spot where a lot were shorting on that move inside Tuesday Globex/Wednesday RTH expecting a bigger move down but instead market failed to get back under VAH and pushed out trapping and squeezing shorts into the upper Edge again. We spent Thursday and Friday Globex building Supply inside it which got flushed back down under the Edge and Key area of 5341 - 36 but that was all the supply we had for now and we were able to get back inside 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range and find balance inside it as we pushed above the Edge hit Key area and came back inside the Means of the range to close inside the Edge. This Week : Maybe this will finally become our range to find longer term balance in ? Market has been ripping up and down through intraday ranges back and forth without spending too much time in each, it has been a while since we had longer term balancing action and after big moves and everyone getting used to expansions to the upside and downside I think Market needs that and has been looking for a place to do that. Of course we have to be careful and adapt if things change but so far what the structure is showing us is that we are at ATH and at Key HTF Area, we don't have strong size buyers up here who want to keep pushing us higher as we saw from fails at and over this 5368 area, we can see that buyers most likely put together their cost inside lower Value above VAL after we flushed it and came back in, meaning here smart long will be sellers but for now this is the only supply that we have since are at ATH which means for any bigger back fills or moves lower we either need SIZE sellers which we might not get up here since its Summer time and they don't see any structure or build up of enough supply which they could later use to cover lower with if they would sell up here since market ran out of Supply lower. IF this is the case then this will potentially be our Balance area here between above VAL and VAH of lower HTF Range, this tells us that any moves to or under Key Supports could find their way back inside the Edge and moves above the Edge top and above 5386 - 81 Key Resistance that don't find acceptance in or above VAL would find their way back inside the Edge as well. We are in a new month and this area could be our balance for some time, and we have to be careful with looking for too much continuation above or below these areas for time being. To see acceptance higher we would need to see market build up over Edge top and take out VAL and balance around 5397 - 5412 area without coming back in, and to find acceptance lower again we would need to be able to hold under Key Support and push back into VAL without coming back over, until then will be looking to trade 5386.50 - 36 Intraday Range. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5386.50 - 5336 5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance 5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means - where price will want to keep returning towards and balance between 5341 - 36 Key Support IF Accept over Key Resistance, range is 5432 - 81.50 5432 - 27 Key Resistance 5401.50 - 5397.50 // 5416 - 12 Means IF Accept under Key Support, range 5341 - 5290.25 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Middle East heats up, GOLD recovers despite USD strengthDespite the strength of the US Dollar, spot gold OANDA:XAUUSD still increasing strongly and stably. Growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and falling US bond yields have provided bullish momentum for gold prices. In addition, tensions in the Middle East have stimulated gold prices to attract safe-haven buying. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 3 basis points to 4.297%, the lowest since April, after the U.S. ADP jobs report was weaker than expected. Data released Wednesday showed U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in May, consistent with a recent cooling trend in the labor market. Data released Wednesday by the ADP Research Institute, a subsidiary of private employment agency ADP, and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab show the number of private sector jobs in the United States. rose 152,000 in May. The median forecast of economists surveyed was for a rise of 175,000. Markets speculate that the slowing economy will create conditions for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Traders in the federal funds futures market are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by about 50 basis points by the end of the year. Iran's latest threat: Israel must "pay with blood"! Summary of content related to the situation in the Middle East: Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, threatened to retaliate against Israel on Wednesday (June 5). Earlier this week, Israel launched an attack in Aleppo, Syria, killing an Iranian adviser. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the technical level that served as support noted by readers in the previous issue at $2,324. However, the upward momentum is temporarily limited by EMA21, an important technical point that is currently acting as the nearest resistance. For gold to have enough technical conditions for a wider price increase in the near future, it needs to surpass the EMA21 level and then the target level is noted at the original price point of 2,400 USD. Currently, the trend of gold prices is mainly to increase with the above conditions for price increase. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,358 – 2,344 – 2,340 – 2,324USD Resistance: 2,375 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2381 - 2379 ⚰️SL: 2385 ⬆️TP1: 2374 ⬆️TP2: 2369 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2338 - 2340 ⚰️SL: 2334 ⬆️TP1: 2345 ⬆️TP2: 2350
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Dax continues with daily new lows in a two-sided market. Nasdaq made another ath 48 points higher and broke above it’s wedge. Mixed markets going into tomorrows CPI and FOMC releases. I expect nothing less of a firework to either direction. For sp500 and nasdaq I expect a complete blow-off top if CPI is not really hot and then only Jpow can save the bears. For nasdaq at this point the 20000 target is absolutely reasonable and in reach. If the numbers align tomorrow, we will see more bear slaughter. Commodities had a trading range day. Gold is trying to grind higher but new highs get sold off hard on bigger volume and oil is keeping it above 77, which is very bullish imo. Bulls can probably get another leg up to 80 again. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Bulls got their big leg up to a new ath again. It’s still not breaking clearly above 5400, which would make all bears capitulate so we can melt to 5500 or higher. It’s a clear trading range with small higher highs. Everything below 5340 is bought, so you know exactly where to buy. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5387 bull case: Again, I can not go full-bull because we are still inside the trading range. Tomorrow will bring a big move to either side. Bull targets have been in my weekly chart for many months now. On the daily chart you can draw multiple bull wedges and market broke above the smallest today. Confirmation would be above 5400. Invalidation is below 5360. bear case: Bears had a rather strong EU session but bulls gave em the finger with bar 10 and a 40 point reversal. They need to keep it below 5400 or I think many stops will be triggered and bears will give up. If bears get help from CPI or Jpow tomorrow, 5300 is the obvious first target and below that comes last week’s low 5200. TBH I can see a move down to 5155, which is the 50% pb from this trading range 4935 - 5385. If CPI prints hot and Jpow hammers on top, the market will have to react because it is not positioned for any risk what so ever. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: Bearish here at 5386 for at least 5355 again. Invalid above 5400. Don’t trade tomorrow’s news events. It’s mostly gambling. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long 5340 or since bar 10. No if’s or buts. Has worked the last days so expect it to work again until it clearly stops working.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
EURGBP eyes support ahead of UK CPI printEURGBP initially began the year in a fairly well-defined trading range but showed bullish impetus after breaking out of the consolidation pattern. However, bullish momentum appeared lacking, as the pair struggled to maintain a steady directional move and has since shown a penchant towards mean reversion. 0.8635 proved too high to handle for the pair previously but the most recent bullish advance fell short of that, finding resistance around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) before heading lower. The current spate of selling is showing signs of fatigue as the pair attempts to trade higher after four successive days of losses. The pair could find itself propped up by trendline support, which caught the bottoms in April and earlier on in May. Keep an eye out for UK CPI tomorrow where there is an expectation of a notable move lower from the prior month. With such optimism, comes the potential for disappointment if the actual data fails to reach the low levels anticipated which may see sterling lift in the moments after the print. April data has the potential to surprise to the upside as this is the month when annual price rises and index-linked increases are implemented. On the other side of the equation, if the CPI data prints inline or lower than consensus estimates, EURGBP may rise off support as markets clear the way for a Bank of England cut sooner rather than later.
by Xayah_trading
Published weekly, PCE cools down but does not yet support GOLDAlthough PCE data shows inflation has cooled, gold prices OANDA:XAUUSD Still reversed Friday's gains and fell to close at $2,327/ounce. PCE data was in line with market expectations, but core PCE data was below analysts' expectations, suggesting inflation in the US is cooling faster than the market expected. So fundamentally the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates sooner rather than later increases. Lower interest rates tend to be positive for gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and precious metal prices increase following data releases. However, gold prices marked their weekly decline as the weekend trading session ended. Data that Fed officials received this week confirm that inflation remains on a bumpy but downward path, but policymakers are unlikely to change their view and are expected to continue continues to emphasize that they need to see more evidence of this. Government data released Friday showed the Federal Reserve's favored measure of core inflation cooled in April and rose at its slowest pace this year. First-quarter GDP growth was revised downward, with data showing a surprise drop in consumer spending in April. The reports painted a picture of the economy slowing, in line with what policymakers want to see, dispelling concerns that prices are rising rapidly, but officials may want to More such evidence in the coming weeks. Only then will the decision to cut interest rates have many prospects of being fundamentally realized. U.S. monthly headline PCE in April was in line with expectations at 0.3%, while annual headline PCE was also steady at 2.7%. Monthly core PCE fell to 0.2% in April from 0.3% in March and annual core PCE was unchanged at 2.8%. Personal income fell to 0.3%, down from 0.5% the previous month. Personal spending decreased from 0.7% to 0.2%. Chicago's PMI in May was 35.4, lower than the previous value of 37.9, significantly lower than the forecast of 41. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Watch tool, federal funds futures pricing data shows a 45.2% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September and a 25% probability of a rate cut. basis points (bps) is 47%. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that during the week of May 28, net long positions in COMEX gold held by speculators fell by 14,751 contracts to 179,221 contracts. Fundamentally, it is clear that gold has certain conditions that support its ability to increase in price while macro data is still supporting the Fed to cut interest rates sooner. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of precious metals, especially gold. Noteworthy data and events next week Monday: US ISM manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: US ADP Employment Change, Bank of Canada interest rate decision, ISM services PMI Thursday: European Central Bank interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has had multiple recovery sessions from technical levels that acted as support for readers' attention throughout the previous issue at the price point of 2,324USD; but recoveries are limited by the 21-day moving average (EMA21), and EMA21 is also the current closest technical resistance. The weekly close was also right at the nearest support level at $2,324, a support level that has powered previous rallies but it has also been tested quite a few times and once it broke below, gold There are conditions to continue to reduce more with the target level then being around 2,305 - 2,300 USD. The RSI strength index is pointing down without reaching the oversold area, which shows that there is still technical room to the downside so the best possible area to start buying should be around 30% of the index. this newspaper. The case where the gold price has enough conditions to recover further is when it can surpass the EMA21. In the near future, in terms of technical factors, gold will lean more towards a bearish outlook. And the notable technical levels will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,340 – 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2346 - 2344 ⚰️SL: 2350 ⬆️TP1: 2339 ⬆️TP2: 2334 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2299 - 2301 ⚰️SL: 2295 ⬆️TP1: 2306 ⬆️TP2: 2311
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD rises but limited by EMA21, pay attention to ADP and NFPThe US manufacturing industry lost more momentum and increasingly fell into a state of contraction. This data led to an increase in interest rate cut expectations, the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields fell, and the gold market regained momentum and remained around 2,350 USD/ounce. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced that the US manufacturing index fell to 48.7% in May, down from 49.2% in April. The data was weaker than expected, with consensus predicting the index will improve slightly to 49.8. The gold market has seen some initial buying momentum as it recovers from lows, disappointing economic data has created fresh buying in the market. Markets increasingly expect that the slowing economy will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, even as inflation remains relatively high, higher than the Fed's target of level 2 inflation. %. The market expects an 82% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in November. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank will almost certainly cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.75% on Thursday, likely potentially become the first major central bank to cut interest rates this cycle. Investors are now looking forward to the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and US nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered again and maintained price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can be considered a positive signal. However, the recovery momentum is also limited by the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As noted to readers in previous publications, in order for the gold price to have more basis for its rising prospects, it needs to bring price activity above EMA21, then the short-term target level is noticed. at original price of 2,400 USD. Temporarily, at the present time, the gold price is not yet qualified to increase in price, but on the other hand, the short-term technical trend is more inclined towards the possibility of price decrease. And notable technical points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,340 – 2,324USD Resistance: 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2376 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2380 ⬆️TP1: 2369 ⬆️TP2: 2364 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2324 - 2326 ⚰️SL: 2320 ⬆️TP1: 2331 ⬆️TP2: 2336
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Can see a diamond pattern on the 1h tf and the recent triangle we are forming. Market is in breakout mode. The move from bar 36 - 44 was strong but afterwards market was in a weak bull channel above the 15m 20ema. The buying above 5360 was weak and I expect bears to trade back down to 5350 tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5330 - 5385 bull case: In my weekly outlook I was more bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500. After today’s price action above 5360, I’m not so sure. If bulls can break above 5380 and the ath 5385, sure they can get it but today’s highs were not bought eagerly. Bulls remain in full control, trading above 15/60 and daily 20ema. Invalidation is below 5350. bear case: Bears see today’s bull channel as a weaker one, which already had 4 pushes to the upper trend line. They want a reversal below the ath tomorrow and test back down to at least 5350 and then the open of this week at 5347. I expect bears to keep the market inside the triangle for most of tomorrow and going into the CPI release. Invalidation is above 5400. short term: neutral inside given range. Bulls would need to break strongly above 5380 for me to go long up here. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long double bottom bar 18 + 36 on bar 39. 15m 20ema held so you could have held into close.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
2024-06-10 - a daily price action after hour update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Markets went mostly flat today. Dax sears tried and were rejected again and sp500 and nasdaq made higher lows and lower highs. Markets are forming triangles which means we are in breakout mode again. No surprise moving into CPI and FOMC this week. I expect more sideways movement until then. Commodities all green, while Gold is flat, Oil continued the pull-back big time to get back to 78. Bulls strength surprised me tbh. The pull-back is already too strong for the bear trend to continue much further. Oil trading range is probably 72 - 80 for the next weeks. wti crude oil comment: Don’t long at the top of a expanding triangle and after a huge buy climax. In my weekly outlook I wrote that we will hit the daily ema at around 77 again but I obviously did not expect it to be done so fast. Oil was still in a trading range until the breakout above 76.23 but bulls kept at it and the 15m ema held into US close. Since we are at the top of the expanding triangle, I am not interested in buying up here. A pull-back is reasonable here but as of right now, bulls are in full control until bears break below the 15m ema and one should not short into such a strong trend. 78 should be bigger resistance. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 72 - 80 bull case: With today the bear trend concludes imo, since the move was too strong to be part of the bear trend. The 72.48 low could be retested over the next days to weeks but the downside is probably limited to around that area. Bulls want the strong momentum to continue and get most bears stops above 80. It would be insanely strong, if they could break above the bear channel in one giant move over two days. It’s very low probability that this will happen. If it does, we are probably facing an macro event over the next days. Invalid below 70 bear case: Bears gave up above 76.3 and market moved fast to 78. If bears can not keep it below 78, we will probably melt more up to 80. My line in the sand for bears was around 77-77.5 but bulls melted through. Not many arguments for the bears here until they get below the 15m ema and stop the market from making higher highs. short term: Bullish af. If this continues, we see 80 soon. If we see 79 in Globex, the chances of an event are big imo. Something is up. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 86 (could also be 87 but for now I see the spike above 83 as a failed breakout of the triangle. We hit the lower trend line and now we will test back up to above 83. —will update this Wednesday current swing trade: None trade of the day: I had no interest in buying above 75.5 and under 76.3 but missed the big breakout. Bad trading on my part. Had to get long since bar 9 or latest bar 10.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: Monday and Tuesday were bullish dojis on the daily chart but bears finally gave up on Wednesday where we did all of the points gained for last week. I said that the bear case was weak at best and that stays the same, until bears will get below the breakout bar and price of 5300. That levels needs to become resistance, for bears to have a shot. I do think the price action speaks more of a leg inside a trading range and we just made a higher high, but if bulls can get above 5400, that take is wrong and we are in W5 which could bring us to 5500/5600. current market cycle: Bull trend or trading range. It’s unclear. We do not get consecutive bull trend bars on the daily chart since first half of May. The daily chart makes higher prices but only through spikes, followed by pull-backs or dojis. This is not behaving like a leg in a strong bull trend. key levels: 5300 - 5400 bull case: Market refuses to go down but it’s not as bullish as it seems. A deeper pull-back is around the corner imo. Bulls are still in full control and could get another spike up, if market chooses to front-run the events or interpret the news as bullish. Chart is clear imo, W5 can lead to 5500 or higher but for that to happen, bulls need a strong break above this wedge top. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears gave up on Wednesday after trying on Monday and Tuesday. The only thing they had going for them over the last 15 weeks was, that they kept weekly closes below 5300, which should have been bigger resistance. Looking at the weekly and monthly chart, it’s just bullish, despite the up moves getting weaker and bulls only get single spikes and no follow through. No matter if we get a W5 up, market will have a deeper pull-back like the one from April to below 5000. We will at least touch the bull trend line again over the next couple of weeks, if not break it. Bears need consecutive daily closes below 5300 for that to happen. Invalidation is above 5400. outlook last week: “ Neutral until bulls get follow through. I do think bulls are favored but we are right at the upper bull flag line and it’s a weak bear trend inside this bull flag until bulls stop the lower lows and make higher highs again. ” → Last Sunday we traded 5295 and now we are at 5355. 5260 was my target for the bears and the weekly low as 5246. The lows held and bulls pushed it above 5350, which was my bullish target. So both prices I laid out got hit. short term: Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. If bulls can break strongly above 5350, it’s obviously a continuation of the bull trend and my next target would be 5500/5560. —unchanged current swing trade: Not interested in buying up here, except intraday scalps. If CPI comes in hot, I will initiate new long term shorts. Chart update: Removed the bull flag, that’s it.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. wti crude oil futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears sold 80 again and will probably take profits here at 77 or try to get 76 again. If they get a breakout below, we will probably test 75, which is a price I thought we would test for 5-7 weeks now. It’s a bad sell here at 77 for bears so best they can get is sideways movement. comment: Fair to say that bears surprised me big time on Monday with the huge follow through selling through previous bigger support. 72 stopped the fall and created an expected bounce. I do think this was W5 and my bearish targets are all met for now. Market should move sideways to up from here. On Friday we got a perfect retest of the breakout price of 76 and that was resistance for now. Worst case scenario for bulls would be to stay below 76. The bull trend line will get retested and should hold for now. current market cycle: Bear trend which could transition into a trading range here key levels: 72-78 bull case: The best the bulls can hope for, is for the lows to hold and to move sideways and hit the daily ema again. They failed at keeping it above 75, which was huge support. Last bear leg inside this bigger trading range was 11 weeks long from high to low and we are currently at 9 weeks. Bulls will want to find support here around 70-72 and trade back up to at least 78 over the next 8-12 weeks. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Huge bear surprise imo on Monday and bears want to keep it max bearish and they will do that by keeping the market below the breakout price around 76 and below the daily ema. They want a retest of 72.5 again and poke the bull trend line enough for bulls to give up there. If they actually get an acceleration of this bear trend, which is the low probability thing, they could retest 70 next and below 70 comes 67 as support. Invalidation is above 80.5. outlook last week: “R:R is on the bull side here at the bottom of this range. I wait for confirmation on Monday before going long for 80 again. Below 76 we could get to 75 but that would require strong momentum for me to go short down here.” → Last Sunday we traded 76.99 and now we are at 75.53. High of the week was 77.52 so the uber bearish price action, was surprising to me. I did not advise you to be bullish, unless there confirmation for the bulls and obviously that did not happen. So my bearish target of 75, if we go below 76, was alright but way too short of 72.48. Not a good outlook. short term: Neutral because I think we will hit the daily ema again and a retest of 72.5ish. I am not a fortune teller so I don’t know which comes first. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 73 and 83. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. Market will probably move more inside this big range until we get a new big cycle to either side. current swing trade: None chart update: Added my pretty bear channel, adjusted 5-wave series and added a two-legged pullback, which we are probably in as of now. The red ABC is how I imagine it to play out price-wise, not time wise. We should see a retest of the lows as well as the daily ema. I don’t know which comes before what or when. Also adjusted the big bear trend line from 2022.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
#202424 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - goldGood Day and I hope you are well. old futures Quote from last week: bear case: The smaller bull trend line was clearly broken and retested and the higher time frames also give more sell than buy signals. It’s a two-legged correction here to the ema and that is a perfect sell signal. They want follow through on Monday for target 2300. comment: This market behaved as I said it would. The high of 2406 was a bit higher than expected but overall read was perfect. We are in W3 which should lead a bit lower to around 2270ish before we get another sideways to up movement. If W4 stays below 2350, W5 should bring us to at least 2200. That is a 120 point move in Gold for you. Let’s see how it will play out. Small possibility that 2300 stays support and we move more sideways. Would reevaluate my take on this then. current market cycle: trading range until break below 2300 , which would confirm a bear trend, probably down to 2200. I favor the bears heavily here but leave room for 2300 being stronger support than I think it is. key levels: 2300 - 2400 / below 2300 comes 2270 in play bull case: Bulls continued in the expanding triangle and got their retest of 2400, just to be violently sold by the bears. Twitter and news salespeople want you to believe it was due to news that China won’t buy any more Gold. But how do they explain the W1 from 2477 down to 2334? That started 2 weeks ago. Only objective now for the bulls is to keep it above 2300, otherwise 2270 comes next. Invalidation is below 2300. bear case: My bear channel tells how you I feel about Gold. Now bears need to print lower lows and keep the pull-back for W4 mostly sideways and under 2350. I fully expect to hit 2200 over the next weeks and then we will find out how many people want to buy Gold again. Invalidation is above 2360. outlook last week: “Still preferring that second leg down to 2200. Bearish below 2340 and neutral 2340-2390.” → Last Sunday we traded 2345 and now we are at 2325. My target to the EMA was on point and good for about 30 points and my downward target to 2270 is still valid. Good outlook. short term: Bearish. Big bear surprise on Friday and I expect follow through. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged current swing trade: Short from 2374. SL is 2406. Chart update: I like my new bear channel. I trade it and I made money so far with it. Hope you can make some too with it.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
GOLD continuing downtrendOANDA:XAUUSD reached a peak of $2,450 in May but has since fallen over 4%. This shift indicates a change in investor sentiment, with bullish investors likely seeking other opportunities. The weakness in gold may persist due to factors like inflation and the US central bank's restrictive stance. Traders watching short positions should pay attention to the $2,335 support zone. This area combines important technical indicators, such as a key trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May rally. If the price decisively falls below $2,335 with above-average trading volume, it would be a strong selling signal. If the price drops below $2,335, the next important level to watch is the 50-day simple moving average at $2,325. Breaking this support could lead to a further decline, with potential downside targets around $2,265, which is a critical Fibonacci level near this month's lowest point. If bulls regain control and prices rise, resistance at $2,365 and $2,377 may pose a challenge. However, surpassing this level could change bearish sentiment and potentially lead to a rally towards $2,420. Further strength could even bring the all-time high back into play.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD moves sideways ahead of Fed's favorite inflation dataDuring the trading session on the Asian market on Friday (May 31), spot gold decreased slightly, currently at 2,339 USD/ounce. On this trading day, investors will receive the most important economic data of the week, US PCE inflation data, which is expected to stimulate the market trend. Gold prices recovered some of Wednesday's losses on Thursday after the US gross domestic product (GDP) showed the economy was slowing. US GDP data has revived hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year. Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the US quarterly real GDP rate in the first quarter was 1.3%, below the previous baseline value of 1.3%. .6%, reflecting lower-than-expected consumer spending. Personal spending, the main growth driver of the US economy, increased by 2.0%, compared to the previous initial value of 2.5%. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that 219,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the week ended May 25, compared with expectations of 218,000 and a previous figure of 215,000. U.S. economic growth was slower than in the fourth quarter of last year, suggesting that higher borrowing costs set by the Federal Reserve are having an impact on the economy. Meanwhile, the US Department of Labor revealed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is increasing. These two factors have weakened the Dollar in the short term. Today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for April will be released. Surveys show that the US PCE price index in April is expected to increase 0.3% monthly and increase 2.7% year-on-year. In terms of more important core data, surveys show that the US core PCE price index for April is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. . As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers which in turn impacts the underlying trend of gold prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Technically, gold is still mainly moving sideways due to the lack of a fundamental impact to create a surge, but overall, it has the conditions to decrease in price due to price activity below EMA21 and an uptrend. in the medium term was broken before. Although the recovery from the technical level of 2,324 USD was noticeable to readers in yesterday's edition, it is also limited by the EMA21, and for gold to be eligible to continue its recovery, it needs to at least reach Price activity is above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). On the other hand, gold is likely to fall more towards $2,305 – $2,300 once $2,324 is broken below. During the day, the technical trend of gold price leans more towards the possibility of price decline with notable levels being listed as follows. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD Resistance: 2,345 – 2,353USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2376 - 2374 ⚰️SL: 2380 ⬆️TP1: 2369 ⬆️TP2: 2364 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308 ⚰️SL: 2301 ⬆️TP1: 2313 ⬆️TP2: 2318
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
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