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Continue to adjust, pay attention to $2,400 level, FOMC minutesIn the Asian market on May 22, spot gold suddenly dropped in the short term but did not affect the main trend. Gold price fell sharply from the highest level of the session as of the time this article was completed, which was 2,426 USD/oz, and set a new intraday low at 2,412 USD/oz. OANDA:XAUUSD fell from record highs earlier this week as the Federal Reserve became cautious about cutting interest rates. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East still boost safe-haven demand, which could limit the decline in gold prices. Fed Governor John Waller said Tuesday that it will take "several more months" of good inflation data before considering an interest rate cut. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Tuesday he is in no rush to cut interest rates but wants to wait longer to ensure inflation doesn't start to fluctuate. Fed officials warned the Fed needs more evidence that inflation is easing before it starts cutting interest rates, emphasizing that the Fed could keep interest rates high for a longer period of time. This could boost the US Dollar and put gold prices in US Dollars under pressure. Gold's decline may be limited amid US-China trade tensions, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and strong demand from central banks and buyers in Asia, which could support gold subsidy. Later in the trading day on Wednesday, gold traders will closely monitor the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Goolsby's speech from Federal Reserve officials. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has adjusted down, but the downward adjustments are not damaging the main uptrend with the uptrend from the short-term price channel and the main uptrend trend. During the day, the uptrend in gold prices will be noticed by support levels from 2,410 – 2,400 USD and as long as gold remains in the price channel, it will still have a technical upside prospect. Even if gold is sold off below the 0.236% Fibonacci extension, the decline will still be limited by support from the trend and EMA21. Overall assessment, the technical picture for gold prices will continue to lean towards the possibility of price increase with short-term technical levels noted as follows. Support: 2,410 – 2,400USD Resistance: 2,430 – 2,450USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2443 - 2441 ⚰️SL: 2447 ⬆️TP1: 2436 ⬆️TP2: 2431 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2396 - 2398 ⚰️SL: 2392 ⬆️TP1: 2403 ⬆️TP2: 2408
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Can we go back to reality?Congratulations NVDA, because you delivered everything you could deliver in terms of good results, however, can we get back to reality? Will the Black Monday that we experienced in 1987, in the DOW JONES index, be experienced again in 2024, and thanks to NVDA and technology companies? We know what happened between 1980 and 1985 to the American economy, right? It is known that in the 1980s and early 1990s, dollars could circulate freely around the world, so much so that we had a global economic miracle, and the world was swimming in booming growth. But, at the current moment, dollars can no longer circulate freely around the world (FED, China, Russia) and continue contributing to global growth? Therefore, the technological war we are experiencing today (chips and electric cars), diverted dollars to these sectors, further inflating this bubble that is about to burst. Speaking of electric cars, China is firmly dumping its electric cars around the world at very reasonable prices (as it has no intention of breaking its internal market – control), once and for all destroying the automobile industry in many emerging countries, oh my, no? Let's go graphics. Monthly: NVDA has reached the three golden levels of the FIB of the SETUP used, so there is nowhere else to go. So, SPX, get ready. The red lines are resistance points. Weekly: With the brilliant financial report recently released, prices are ready to seek the golden region of this chart period. The red lines are resistance points. Daily. Prices have reached the region of 100% of the bullish pivot. The red lines are resistance points. Do your analysis and good business. Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss. See other graphical analyzes below.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by MacD_Bollinger
GOLD corrects, uptrend remains stable, market newsOn the Asian market, gold is delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly dropped sharply from the session's high of 2,433.13 USD/ounce. Gold price has just touched 2,410 USD/ounce, setting the lowest level of the day as of the time this article was completed. News of the death of the Iranian president has increased tensions in the region and gold prices have increased due to safe-haven demand. However, comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Michael Barr put pressure on gold prices. Barr, the Fed vice chairman for regulatory affairs, said Monday that interest rates will need to remain at current levels for longer to bring inflation back to the sustainable target level. “The Fed needs to give tightening policy more time to continue to work,” Barr said. New geopolitical news in the Middle East New news from the Middle East situation on May 20, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court applied for an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galante on suspicion of war crimes. According to the prosecutor's statement, prosecutors have "reasonable grounds to believe" that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Galante are responsible for the "war crimes and counterattacks" that occurred. in the Gaza Strip “from at least October 8, 2023”. Traders are monitoring developments in the Middle East after Iran's president and foreign minister were killed in a helicopter crash. Additionally, in Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer, King Salman is being treated for a lung infection. In general, the market is lacking truly notable developments that create significant fluctuations, so gold is likely to correct, but in terms of the overall picture, although gold prices are limited in their upward momentum by comments from officials. Fed, but it still has a lot of fundamental room to increase prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has corrected significantly from its new all-time high set yesterday, a correction that was also price point to the 0.382% trend-following Fibonacci extension. However, the gold price still has an uptrend mainly from trend and a short-term uptrend from price channel and all the support and technical conditions support the possibility of price increase. Once gold breaks the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level, it will continue to open a new bullish cycle with a new era high targeted at the 0.50% Fibonacci point. As long as gold remains above the original price point of 2,400 USD and the 0.236% Fibonacci level along the price channel, it still has short-term bullish prospects. During the day, the uptrend in technical gold prices will be noticed again by the following price levels. Support: 2,400 – 2,398USD Resistance: 2,422 – 2,430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2457 - 2455 ⚰️SL: 2461 ⬆️TP1: 2450 ⬆️TP2: 2445 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2389 - 2391 ⚰️SL: 2385 ⬆️TP1: 2396 ⬆️TP2: 2401
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD trended lower on ThursdayEURUSD trended lower on Thursday after an unsuccessful attempt to clear the resistance at 1.0725, with prices moving back towards the 1.0700 handle. Traders should closely monitor this support area in the coming days, as a break below it could trigger a pullback towards 1.0645 and potentially even 1.0600. In the event of a bullish reversal from current levels, the first technical ceiling worth keeping an eye on in the near term is situated at 1.0725, followed by 1.0755. Further upward momentum will draw attention to the 1.0800 zone, where the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages currently intersect.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD is at risk when the ECB lowers interest ratesBULLISH US DOLLAR FORECAST OANDA:EURUSD - The mighty dollar is back as CPI data impacts policy paths - EURUSD at risk after the ECB laid out the conditions for lowering rates THE MIGHTY DOLLAR IS BACK AS CPI DATA IMPACTS POLICY PATHS The US dollar is back in the FX market following strong CPI data, leading to a reevaluation of the world's reserve currency. The data was released on Wednesday, with prices trading above key levels and indicating a potential for the dollar to quickly close the gap, which it did. The dollar index has surged, breaking through resistance levels as markets predict fewer interest rate cuts this year. This suggests only one cut is expected before the end of the year. The dollar is expected to remain strong due to the anticipated escalation in the Middle East following US President Joe Biden's announcement of an imminent attack by Iran in response to Israel's strike on an Iranian embassy in Damascus. OANDA:EURUSD AT RISK AFTER THE ECB LAID OUT THE CONDITIONS FOR LOWERING RATES The ECB statement confirmed that the governing council will not pre-commit to any rate path but will respond to incoming data. Prominent ECB officials have expressed a preference for a June cut. The statement brought joy to the doves as it acknowledged the potential for interest rates to be lowered if inflation dynamics align with target goals. EURUSD broke through key technical levels including the 50 and 200-day SMAs, the 38.2% Fib retracement, and the psychological level of 1.0700. The close below the 23.6% Fib retracement suggests a possible move towards the 2023 low. However, the pair is nearing oversold territory (RSI), which may pose a challenge to further downward movement. The EURUSD is expected to weaken in the medium term, but in the meantime, it may slightly ease back due to oversold conditions and lack of impactful US economic data next week. A positive ZEW figure could help the euro recover some recent losses as sentiment and confidence indices improve.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD has bearish conditions, important confluenceAt the latest policy meeting, the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged but left no doubt about its intention to move to more easing. The guidance prompted traders to increase bets that the organization led by Christine Lagarde will launch an easing campaign at the next monetary policy meeting in June. The prospect of the ECB being ahead of the Fed on monetary easing could be detrimental to EUR/USD in the short term. Just a few weeks ago, there were signs that the FOMC could also act in June, but a series of hotter-than-expected US inflation measures and labor market data have skewed this scenario. , causing a repricing of interest rate expectations and benefiting the US Dollar. On the daily chart, OANDA:EURUSD there are technical conditions that fully support the possibility of a bearish price with the main trend formed from price channel (a) and maintaining price activity below the EMA21 level. While EUR/USD's decline may temporarily be limited by the support confluence of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and the lower edge of the price channel (a) along with the 1.06367 horizontal support, it still has plenty of room to fall. Technical price. A new bearish cycle could be opened once the lower edge of price channel (a) is broken below with the target level then around 1.05232 in the short term. Upward corrections, as long as they do not break the technical points 1.06854 – 1.07234, EUR/USD still has a short-term decline prospect, and these are also considered targets for short-term correction recovery. Looking ahead, EUR/USD still has the main technical trend to the downside and notable technical levels will be listed as follows. Support: 1.06423 – 1.05232 Resistance: 1.06954 – 1.07234
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD advanced on MondayEURUSD advanced on Monday, clearing both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages near 1.0785. If this bullish breakout is sustained, overhead resistance stretches from 1.0805 to 1.0810. While overcoming this barrier may pose a challenge for bulls, a move beyond it could lead to relatively clear sailing towards 1.0865, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 selloff. Conversely, if sellers mount a comeback and drive the pair below the previously mentioned simple moving average indicators, sentiment towards the euro could start souring, creating the right conditions for a pullback towards 1.0725 and 1.0695 thereafter. Additional losses below this crucial floor could trigger a descent towards 1.0650, May’s trough.
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD remained subdued late in the weekEURUSD remained subdued late in the week, unable to sustain its upward momentum after Wednesday’s bullish breakout, with the exchange rate seesawing but holding steady above 1.0865. Bulls need to keep prices above this area to prevent a resurgence of sellers; failure to do so could result in a pullback toward 1.0810/1.0800. On the other hand, if buying momentum resurfaces and the pair moves higher again, overhead resistance can be spotted near 1.0980, a key technical barrier defined by the March swing high. Should the pair continue to strengthen beyond this point, buyers might gain confidence and target 1.1020, a dynamic trend line extending from the 2023 peak.
by Xayah_trading
BTC - Short Trade DetailsI suspect a massive short on bitcoin to take place. This is because DXY is showing a bearish breakdown on the monthly - with only a small upwards movement left before anticipated rejection from this bearish retest. This means an extended bull market - and this weekend period utilized to wipe long positions prior to this occurring. There are two major short entry points I can decipher on the chart. The first is 69,250 - which seems to be keeping price below at the moment. The second possibility is an initial move up to 69,900 to 71,000 and rejection from this location. My short targets in white are quite drastic. However again, DXY is showing signs of supporting a very lengthy bull market spanning the next 1-2 years. This to me serves as a justification for these extreme lows to be hit, otherwise I would not be suggesting something so drastic. This HTF bearish trend line supports targets as low as 8,000 - and it’s entirely possible that we don’t see a low that severe, however it is supported by a chart trend line and as such I will be taking it seriously until proven invalid. Happy trading.
Short
by DickDandy
2
Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 24th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market has transitioned from a rally to a short-term dip. Bulls are attempting to defend key supports, while bears are looking for further downside continuation. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5265 (major), 5253 (major) Major Supports: 5230-35 (major), 5202 (major), 5177 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5293 (major), 5302 (major) Major Resistances: 5317 (major), 5380 (major), 5400 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Rally Dip: The market is now in a short-term dip after a prolonged rally. Exercise caution and avoid chasing longs or shorts. Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5274 for potential long entries. Consider failed breakdowns at 5265 or a dip and reclaim at 5230-35 for more aggressive long entries. Short Opportunities: Consider shorts at 5317 (if the market rallies strongly) or on failed breakdowns below 5265 after a bounce/retest. Exercise caution and take profits level-to-level. Focus on Reactions and Price Discovery: Wait for confirmation signals and clear reactions at key levels before committing to any trades. Bull Case Defending Support: Bulls need to defend the 5265-72 zone to prevent further downside and maintain the possibility of a bounce. Reclaiming Resistances: If bulls reclaim the 5293 and 5302 levels, the dip could be considered over, opening up a potential move towards the previous highs. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5265 could trigger further selling, targeting 5230-35 and potentially deeper levels. Look for bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 24th, 2024 📈 U.S. Durable Goods Orders: The latest data shows an unexpected increase in April, suggesting resilience in manufacturing despite economic headwinds. 🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Their Economic Impacts: Recent surveys indicate that geopolitical risks are a top concern for global family offices, with significant implications for asset allocations in North America and Asia Pacific. 🛡️ Shifts in Safe Haven Assets: In an environment of growing debt concerns, investors are increasingly turning to gold over traditional government bonds, marking a significant shift in safe haven preferences. 🌎 Climate Change and Economic Impact: A session at the 10th World Water Forum highlighted the severe economic repercussions of climate change and water scarcity in Laos, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable water management solutions. 📊 Global PMI Data Releases: The release of the S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI reports provides critical insights into the economic conditions of the services and manufacturing sectors, which are key indicators of overall economic health.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.19 - 5.24Last Week : Last week Market opened under the VAL of this 5368 - 5207 HTF Range with our Sellers being in Value/VAL and Cost Basis/Supports at the lower Edge. We spent few days consolidating between VAL and the Edge with a move on Tuesday that first failed to hold under 5230s pre market and then afternoon push over VAL trapping the shorts under Value. Wednesday data brought in Volume and market continued higher through next Key Area putting the squeeze on and pushing us in/through VAH, from there one more target was left to test the Edge and see if we push through it and accept or we get a response in opposite direction, discussed last week before the tag that first tests of these bigger HTF areas often provide good response in opposite direction which gave us a tag/ supply build under Edge and a move back to VAH with Friday closing the week with filling the buyers with that Supply around VAH. This Week : Few things we know so far going into this week, of course depending where we will open and what we do in Globex but for now we are inside 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range, we are inside T2 Range with buyers in/under VAH and Trapped Supply/Sellers still could be over 30s and closer to the Edge Bottom of 5348. So far it looks like market has chosen 5368 - 5207 to be our HTF Range going forward until we will be ready to move out of it again which tells me we may spend time balancing around it back and forth while we distribute and fill orders as we will have buying and selling in it from Trapped Shorts and Trapped Longs/New Longs who will be looking for continuation out of this Range. For us to see continuation higher out of this HTF Range we would need to either build a base under the Edge bottom or see a strong bid through it trapping more sellers under AND start balancing over 5256 - 52 area without coming back in, until then holding under the Edge will mean weakness BUT it doesn't mean we will just sell back down that easily as well, we have to consider that we are at ATH with no overhang above us and no real Volume built up here just yet that would give us stronger moves lower. With that in mind there is a chance that we might spend some time in and around this current Intraday Range of 5341 - 5290.25 building that Supply. As been mentioned over last few weeks, have to be careful of smaller ranges and quicker/smaller moves, especially now that we might have both sides starting to be trapped and looking to be trading in and out of their size around here. IF Volume does come in and we accept back inside the Value and start holding under VAH we could see a move all the way back towards VAL to fill in the buyers in those areas, our Size Shorts would be trapped in Value and under VAL where we could expect absorption if we get there but careful as it could take time there as well. IF we don't get the Volume to push us through the above Edge or the Volume to give us acceptance and continuation under 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support then we could spend quite some time around this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range with pushes out of it being bought or sold back inside it. Levels to Watch : Current Range 5341 - 5290.25 5341 - 36 Key Resistance 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means for the Range 5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support If we are to just balance around this intraday range then we could see pushes out of the Means towards Key Areas and then returns back towards/into the Means, this is what I will be watching for unless it shows acceptance under/over Key Areas. If Accept over 5341 - 36 next Range 5386.50 - 5336 5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means and Edge Top 5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance If Accept under 5295.50 - 90.25 5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 Means and VAL 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Hawkish RBNZ meeting buoys NZDUSDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has warned about high domestic inflation despite having one of the highest interest rates among major central banks. The committee discussed raising rates but acknowledged that the economy can't handle it. As a result, markets have postponed expectations of a rate cut to November. The NZD/USD has been steadily rising since April, even after breaking above the longer-term trendline resistance. While the Kiwi dollar is approaching overbought conditions, there is still potential for short-term gains. The next major resistance level is at 0.6200, but first, a test of yesterday's high at 0.6152 is needed. If there is a pullback, prices could settle around the 0.6050 level, which aligns with the 200 SMA.
by Xayah_trading
CPI continues to push, new short uptrend, raw price $2,400Data showed US consumer prices rose less than expected in April, raising the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the dollar weakened and US Treasury yields fell, gold prices rose because expectations of interest rate cuts will make haven assets like gold more attractive. A gauge of core U.S. inflation cooled in April for the first time in six months, a small step in the right direction for Fed officials looking to start cutting interest rates this year. Bureau of Labor Statistics data also showed that year-over-year gains fell to a three-year low. The Fed is attempting to ease price pressures by weakening demand across the economy. The report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that, after seasonal adjustment, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.4% year-on-year in April, matches expectations. The CPI in March increased by 3.50% over the same period last year. US CPI in April increased by 0.3% over the previous month, lower than the expected 0.40%, and CPI in March increased by 0.40% over the previous month. This is the first time in 6 months that the US CPI growth rate has decreased. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see about a 74% chance the US will cut interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After breaking the $2,366 level yesterday, gold has also confirmed the breakout of the falling price channel and now the target increase could be aimed at the raw price point of $2,400 in the short term and more to the $2,417 level. In addition, gold also forms an increasing price channel in the short term and this will technically be the trend price channel for gold prices in the near future. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the outlook is technically bullish. During the day, the uptrend in gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,377 – 2,366USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2417USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409 ⚰️SL: 2415 ⬆️TP1: 2404 ⬆️TP2: 2399 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2364 - 2366 ⚰️SL: 2360 ⬆️TP1: 2371 ⬆️TP2: 2376
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3 Fed officials released many comments, GOLD has a narrow rangeOANDA:XAUUSD after a correction on Thursday, it remained within a short-term uptrend and the market was affected by some comments from Fed officials. Three senior Fed officials said the central bank should keep interest rates high longer as policymakers await more evidence of slowing inflation, suggesting officials are in no rush to cut interest rates. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have supported the dollar and put pressure on gold prices, limiting the upside potential for gold prices. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin all said Thursday that inflation could take longer to reach the 2% target. • Mester said Thursday at an event in Wooster, Ohio: “Incoming economic information suggests that it will take longer to reach the inflation target, we have many limitations and need to maintain longer policy,” said Mester, who has the right to cast a deciding vote this year. • Williams, the Fed's "No. 3 voice," made similar comments in an interview with Reuters published on Thursday, saying he saw no reason to adjust monetary policy bad right now. “I don't expect to see the greater confidence we need to see in the short term that inflation is moving towards the 2% target,” Williams said. • Barkin told CNBC on Thursday that demand will need to cool further for inflation to reach the Fed's target. He noted that commodity inflation has dropped significantly as supply chains have been repaired. “To get to 2% sustainably in the right way, I think it's going to take a while,” said Barkin, who also has a vote on policymaking this year. • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that officials will “need to be patient and let restrictive policies work.” Fundamentally, gold is being constrained by comments from Fed officials yesterday, but looking ahead it is clear that the longer term path remains supportive as market sentiment Overall, it shows that the Fed will cut interest rates. Once interest rates are cut, gold prices will continue to increase because gold prices priced in Dollars will become more attractive when the US Dollar weakens. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is trading in a fairly narrow range after yesterday's short correction. However, the main short-term trend is still maintained as an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend. As long as gold remains above the 21-day moving average EMA21, it is still supported in the medium term. Only when gold is sold off below EMA21 to return to operating within the price channel will a more negative situation be eligible to occur, meaning that open long positions should be protected behind EMA21. On the other hand, at the present time gold is still expected to increase with a short-term target level at the original price of 2,400 USD and more than 2,417 USD. During the day, the rising prospect of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,376 – 2,366USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409 ⚰️SL: 2415 ⬆️TP1: 2404 ⬆️TP2: 2399 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2356 - 2358 ⚰️SL: 2352 ⬆️TP1: 2363 ⬆️TP2: 2368
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD edged back into the green TuesdayOANDA:GBPUSD ANALYSIS AND CHARTS - GBPUSD edged back into the green Tuesday - The UK’s March PMI saw upward revision, signaling the first growth in twenty months The British Pound slightly rebounded against the US Dollar on Monday due to unexpected strength in domestic manufacturing. However, the Pound remains below last week's trading range against the Dollar, as strong economic data from the US pushed it down. The Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in March, surpassing market expectations and indicating expansion in the sector. The US Dollar gained against the Pound, driven by positive performance and the UK Purchasing Managers Index reaching its highest level in twenty months. The Dollar is expected to remain strong this week, with the Federal Reserve indicating a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts. Market focus will be on Chair Jerome Powell's comments and any potential impact on the Dollar. The week will end with the US nonfarm payrolls release. March is expected to have seen 200,000 new jobs created, keeping the unemployment rate at 3.9%. OANDA:GBPUSD Technical Analysis The very broad trading range seen since late November is starting to look more like a plateau on the path lower, even if, of course, that is far from confirmed so far. The downtrend channel from the highs of March 8 looks far more solid, at least in terms of its lower bound and, if Sterling bulls can’t keep prices above that, a test of important retracement support at 1.2510 looks likely in the coming weeks. A durable break below that will take GBP/USD back into territory not seen since the end of last year and is likely to signal heavier falls. For now, near-term resistance comes in at March 25’s opening low of 1.25894, with some pause in the downtrend likely of bulls can force the pace above this level. Channel support lies at 1.25090.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD sold off this weekGBPUSD sold off this week, slipping below a technical floor at 1.2430 and hitting its lowest point since November. With bearish momentum prevailing, there's potential for accelerated losses in the short term, possibly prompting a revisit of 1.2320 – a major Fibonacci support level. Prices may bottom out in this area before reversing higher; but in the case of a breakdown, a move towards 1.2168 could unfold. Alternatively, if sentiment shifts back in favor of buyers and cable rebounds off its current position, resistance zones can be identified at 1.2430 and 1.2525 subsequently. Upside clearance of these levels could boost upward impetus, creating the right conditions for a rally towards the 200-day simple moving average at 1.2570.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD mounted a moderate comeback on WednesdayGBPUSD mounted a moderate comeback on Wednesday, bouncing off support in the 1.2430 region. If the pair extends its rebound in the coming trading days, resistance awaits at 1.2525, followed by 1.2575 near the 200-day simple moving average. On continued strength, the next key level to watch is 1.2645. Alternatively, if sellers return and trigger a market selloff, support is visible at 1.2430. To prevent a larger drop, bulls must protect this floor tooth and nail; any lapse could usher in a slump towards 1.2325. Further losses beyond this point might refocus attention on the October 2023 lows near 1.2040.
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD falls back into prior trading range as USD maintains bidPOUND STERLING ANALYSIS - Sterling in focus ahead of lower anticipated UK inflation – BoE up Next - OANDA:GBPUSD falls back into prior trading range as USD maintains bid STERLING IN FOCUS AHEAD OF LOWER ANTICIPATED UK INFLATION – BOE UP NEXT UK inflation, expected to drop before the Bank of England's monetary policy update, is crucial for achieving the target of 2% inflation. Services inflation remains high with limited progress. The Monetary Policy Committee is unlikely to change their stance even if inflation exceeds estimates. Market expectations favor a rate cut in August, while current rates at 5.25% have strengthened the pound. The committee's vote split will be closely monitored if the hawks decide to join those calling for a hold on interest rates. The Fed will provide an update on its monetary policy and new economic projections. The dot plot, showing where officials see interest rates at the end of 2024, will be crucial for the market. Both Powell and Bailey are expected to maintain a consistent message. The image below provides the year-to-date performance of various currencies against the dollar: OANDA:GBPUSD FALLS BACK INTO PRIOR TRADING RANGE AS USD MAINTAINS BID In March, GBP/USD broke out of its trading channel and reached a new high. However, the recent rise in US inflation has strengthened the dollar against several G7 currencies. The GBP/USD pair is now testing the previous high as support. Price action may be volatile due to upcoming central bank meetings, with the Bank of Japan being the only likely mover. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is the next dynamic level of support followed by the bottom of the trading range at 1.2585. Topside resistance appears at 1.2800 followed by the high 1.2893
by Xayah_trading
GBPUSD fails to build after the recoveryUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:GBPUSD - U.S. dollar displays rangebound behavior ahead of high-impact events on Friday - US PCE data and Powell’s speech on Friday will be key for markets - Thinner liquidity conditions are expected later in the week because of a bank holiday The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, moved within a narrow range on Tuesday, displaying a lack of clear direction, but ultimately managed to eke out tiny gains. Mixed U.S. Treasury yields and a sense of caution among market participants contributed to the muted price action, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of high-impact events on the U.S. economic calendar later this week. The release of core PCE data on Friday is significant as it provides insights into consumer prices. Fed Chair Powell's speech on the same day will be closely watched for clues on the timing of the first rate cut of 2024. However, market reaction may be delayed due to the bank holiday and Easter Monday in Europe, causing investors to hesitate until a clearer picture emerges. Forex trading during holidays may not be normal due to reduced liquidity, which can increase price swings. Even routine trades can disrupt the balance between supply and demand. It is advised to be cautious while trading in the upcoming days. OANDA:GBPUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD failed to sustain its rebound from Monday and moved lower, unable to break above trendline resistance and the 50-day simple moving average at 1.2675. If this rejection is confirmed in the coming days, a retest of the 1.2600 level could happen soon, with further potential losses towards 1.2510. On the other hand, if buyers step in and push the pair higher, there is resistance at 1.2675 and then at the key psychological level of 1.2700. Breaking through this technical barrier might be challenging, but a decisive breakout could strengthen upward momentum and potentially lead to a rally towards 1.2830.
by Xayah_trading
USOIL - Short or Buy? Break down or retracement up? Technicals 1. We have been stuck in a range on a higher time frame for quite some time now. 2. On a higher time frame we failed to confirm a break-up from a trendline dating back to March 2022, which was the COVID-19 highs. A failed break-up of this mega trendline is normally a sign of big reversal or retracement. & we did just that ;-) question is, is this a reversal or just a retracement because I see also a trendline from DEC 2023 which we trade just under. IMO we have not fully confirmed that break down. 3. Visible in my chart we see that we are since then on a big down sloping channel which is still respected. Fundamentals 1. My bias is slightly bearish long term because I think the US economy & other major economies will be in a recession which will give downside pressure on the price of OIL 2. Conflict in the Middle East seems to have not a significant impact as of now on the price of USOIL. Will this change? Till I see major escalation happening I don't see that it will have greater impact than it already has. US also is less energy dependent so therefor geopolitical will impact less. 3. Bullish sign is that OPEC is still holding strong on OIL cuts and China is still strong. Summer season will also give some upside pressure because of demand. Trade 1. The first trade, which is a buy option, I will take if I see buyers really taking over to push price up 2. The second trade, which is a sell, I will take if we confirm a break and retest of the weekly low. Great trading all of you Greetingz, Simba Trades
FX:USOILSPOT
by Simba_Trading
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 22nd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating within a tight range. Expecting a breakout, but with heightened anticipation due to Nvidia's upcoming earnings after the bell. Important Note: Nvidia earnings after the bell could significantly impact market direction and volatility. Be prepared for potentially large, unpredictable moves. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5335 (major), 5329, 5322 (major), 5307 Major Supports: 5300-02 (major), 5272-68 (major), 5235-40 (major), 5217-21 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5346-49 (major), 5369 (major), 5401-03 (major) Major Resistances: 5412-15 (major), 5438 (major), 5472-76 (major) Trading Strategy Nvidia Earnings Watch: Exercise caution and be prepared for significant volatility following Nvidia's earnings announcement. Consolidation Breakout: The market is coiling up for a potential explosive move. Focus on the 5302-5347 range for a potential breakout in either direction. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5329, 5322, or 5300-02 if they hold after potential tests. Consider taking profits level to level, especially given the heightened risk environment. Short Opportunities: Avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends, as the win rate is typically low in such scenarios. However, for those comfortable with counter-trend trades, monitor 5412-15 as a potential shorting zone if price rallies significantly after earnings. Bull Case Bull Flag Breakout: The current consolidation range could be interpreted as a bull flag. An upward breakout above 5347 would target 5369 and 5401-03, potentially leading to a strong upward move. Holding Support: If the 5322 support level holds, expect further consolidation and a potential breakout later. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5302 would trigger a deeper retracement, potentially retesting the 5272-68 (major) and 5235-40 (major) zones. Shorting Opportunity: If 5302 is tested and followed by a bounce and acceptance of lower levels, consider entering a short position around 5299 for a level-to-level move down. News: Top Stories for May 22nd, 2024 🌐 IMF Highlights Cybersecurity Risks to Financial Stability: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning about the increasing threat of cyberattacks, which pose a significant risk to global financial stability. This underscores the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures across the financial sector. 🏦 Federal Reserve's Cautious Stance on Inflation: Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting reveal a cautious approach towards inflation, with officials prepared to adjust interest rates if economic data warrants. This has implications for future monetary policy and market expectations. 🌍 Global Trade Prospects Brighten: Reports from the IMF, WTO, and OECD suggest a rebound in global trade, driven by easing inflation and a robust U.S. economy. This recovery follows a slowdown in 2023, with significant implications for global economic growth. 📊 Economic Outlooks and Forecasts: Various economic outlooks from entities like J.P. Morgan and Deloitte provide insights into future economic conditions, highlighting the ongoing adjustments in response to geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and policy shifts. These forecasts are crucial for strategic planning and investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
EURGBP rose uncharacteristically on FridayEUR/GBP rose unusually on Friday as risks of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran eased. In addition, it is seen that inflation will decrease sharply to the target level in the coming months, sending a dovish signal to the market. The bank needs to remain restrained in its policy stance. However, he echoed Ramsden's comments by saying that the committee is seeing signs of a downward shift in the persistent component of inflation dynamics. EUR/GBP appears to have found resistance around 0.8625 and has traded lower after the PMI data, even heading lower than the 200 SMA. A return to former channel resistance is potentially on the cards at 0.8578. Prices settled into the trading range as central bankers mulled incoming data and the prospect of a first rate cut appeared a fair distance away. Longer-term, the ECB is on track to cut rates in June, meaning sterling will extend its interest rate superiority and is likely to see the pair test familiar levels of support.
by Xayah_trading