Get started

Futures

PPI rises, but GOLD is supported by USD and YieldsOANDA:XAUUSD remained strong as the Dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, although data showed US producer prices rose more than expected in April, suggesting inflation remained high. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that his confidence that inflation will continue to cool is no longer as high as it was at the beginning of the year and that the Fed needs to be patient before cutting interest rates. “I would say (the producer price index) is actually quite mixed,” Powell said. As for when the Fed will cut interest rates, Powell noted that the Fed's current restrictive stance may take "longer than expected to take effect and reduce inflation." “I do think the real issue is keeping policy at current interest rates longer than expected,” Powell said. According to the latest producer price index (which measures the price of goods produced by manufacturers), wholesale prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in April, above the market consensus of 0. 3%. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, "core" PPI also rose 0.5% in April, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% increase. However, it is worth noting that the monthly price increase in March was revised down to 0.1% from the initial increase of 0.2%. U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in April as the cost of services and goods rose sharply, prompting traders to cut bets on the first interest rate cut in September. As a basic rule, the newly released PPI data is not beneficial for gold prices. However, because the Dollar and US Bond Yields faked together, gold was chosen and increased in price. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.7% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 3.3%. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. The focus now turns to US consumer price data due today (Wednesday), which could provide clearer guidance on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year . Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has increased significantly after receiving support from EMA21, which readers noticed in previous publications. However, the gains were limited by the price channel with an important resistance level noted at 2,366USD. In the short term, if gold breaks and rises above the $2,366 technical level it will be eligible for further upside with confirmation of a bearish channel being broken above. This means that open short positions should be reasonably protected behind the $2,366 level. On the other hand, at the time this publication was being completed, gold was still trending down from the price channel, with a new downtrend to be opened if gold managed to fall below the EMA21, confirmed by a drop below 2,330USD level, then the target level is noticed at the 0.236% Fibonacci point. In the short term, gold still tends to decrease in price and the bullish case is noted by readers above. Below are the notable technical levels for the day. Support: 2,335 – 2,330USD Resistance: 2,360 – 2,366USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2393 - 2391 ⚰️SL: 2397 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2381 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2321 - 2323 ⚰️SL: 2317 ⬆️TP1: 2328 ⬆️TP2: 2333
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating within a tight range after a strong rally. The market could continue to build out a bull flag pattern or break out directly to new highs. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5329 (major), 5318 (major), 5302-04 (major) Major Supports: 5272-74 (major), 5236 (major), 5208 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5347 (major), 5365-67 (major), 5386-89 (major) Major Resistances: 5404-07 (major), 5450 (major) Trading Strategy Chop Zone Management: The market is consolidating within the 5302-5347 range, with an even tighter range of 5329-5347. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Long Opportunities: Look for a bounce and reclaim above 5317 if the 5309-11 area is tested. If the market dips lower, consider longs at 5302-04, 5272, or 5287 (major). Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, 5342-47 may offer a potential dip, but proceed with extreme caution. Bull Case Bull Flag Continuation: The market may continue to build out the 5309-5342 bull flag pattern, potentially breaking out for a new push into all-time highs (ATHs). Target 5359, then 5375-77 in this scenario. Consolidation and Breakout: If the market consolidates within the 5329-5347 range and breaks out above 5347, it could target the resistances mentioned above. Adding on Strength: Monitor overnight action for potential flagging below 5219 as a possible entry point for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5302 could trigger a deeper retracement, potentially targeting 5272 and lower. Entry Points: Look for a bounce attempt and rejection at 5302, then consider entering a short position around 5300. Remember to manage risk with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024 📈 Renewed Market Rally: The stock market has experienced a renewed record-setting rally, surprising many of Wall Street's top strategists and prompting revisions of year-end S&P 500 targets. This surge reflects robust confidence in market fundamentals and investor optimism. 🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and Commodity Prices: The death of Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has introduced new uncertainties into the oil market, potentially affecting global oil prices. Concurrently, gold futures have reached new record settlements amid growing geopolitical tensions and rate-cut expectations. 🏦 Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook: The minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting are highly anticipated as they may provide further clarity on the timing of potential rate cuts and reveal the level of consensus among policymakers. This release is crucial for understanding the Fed's future monetary policy direction. 💼 Corporate Earnings Reports: Nvidia's earnings report is particularly significant as it is a key driver of the S&P 500's recent growth. Investors and analysts will be closely watching this report to gauge the health of the tech sector and its impact on broader market trends. 📊 Global Economic Indicators: Recent data releases, such as the CPI report and retail sales data, have fueled speculations of a cooling economy. These indicators are essential for assessing the overall health of the economy and potential shifts in monetary policy.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Nasdaq 100 - Futures Day Trading - 15min HypoYesterday we took the all-time high with a liquidity sweep creating a market structure shift on the 15min timeframe. Asia/London session is now in a range market. 8.30 Am we have Canadian CPI news. Careful for manipulation. I will be looking for clear indications and confirmation to trade in direction of the American market open. The overall value migration is up for long term investors, however with this temporary market structure shift model I will be looking for an intraday short when sweeping Asia/London highs.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Aryaman_SmartContracts
Trading Plan for Monday, May 20th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 20th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, consolidating after a historic rally. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5309-11 (major), 5302 (major), 5294 Major Supports: 5267-72 (major), 5232-35 (major), 5208-11 (major), 5150-55 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5329, 5333 (major), 5342-5345 (major) Major Resistances: 5375-77 (major), 5404-07 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation & Pattern Formation: The market is in a post-rally consolidation phase, likely forming a bull flag pattern between 5309 and 5342. Expect choppy trading with potential for breakouts or breakdowns. Long Opportunities: Wait for a test of 5309-11 support, followed by a bounce and reclaim above 5317, as a potential long entry signal. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, wait for a confirmed breakdown of 5302, then look for an entry around 5300 after a bounce or failed breakdown. Level-to-Level Trading: Focus on scalping profits within the range as the market consolidates. Exercise patience and avoid overtrading in this choppy environment. Bull Case Bull Flag Continuation: The market may continue to fill out the 5309-5342 range, potentially leading to a breakout toward new all-time highs. Target 5359 and 5375-77 in this scenario. Adding on Strength: Monitor overnight action for potential flagging above 5309 and below 5219 as a possible entry point for adding to long positions. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A breakdown below 5302, with confirmation from a bounce attempt and rejection, would signal a more significant correction. Use caution with breakdown trades as they are prone to traps. News: Top Stories for May 20th, 2024 🇨🇳 Steady Benchmark Lending Rates in China: Amidst ongoing efforts to stabilize the property sector, China's central bank has maintained its benchmark lending rates. This decision follows a series of bold measures aimed at addressing challenges in the property sector, highlighting the delicate balance the government seeks to maintain in its economic policies. 🏦 Federal Reserve's Upcoming Policy Meeting Minutes: Investors are keenly awaiting the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting. This document is expected to provide critical insights into the Fed's economic outlook and future policy directions, influencing market sentiments and investment strategies. 🌐 Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies: The global trade environment remains tense as geopolitical issues continue to unfold. Notably, the U.S. President's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods has reignited debates over the economic impacts of such tariffs, with potential repercussions for international trade relations and domestic economies. 📉 Global Market Reactions to Mixed Economic Data: As the world economies emit mixed signals, global markets are poised for a potential summertime rally, albeit with an awareness of the risks that could derail such optimism. This scenario underscores the complex interplay of economic indicators and market psychology in shaping investment landscapes. 🏦 Regulatory Adjustments and Financial Sector Implications: Discussions among regulators about reducing proposed capital requirements signify a shift that could enhance the clout of banks. Such regulatory adjustments are crucial as they could affect the stability and operational strategies of financial institutions globally, reflecting broader trends in financial regulation and oversight.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Trading Plan for Friday, May 17th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 17th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market shows signs of fatigue after 10 consecutive green days. Traders are anticipating a pullback and adjusting strategies accordingly. Important Note: It's OPEX Friday, which often leads to choppy price action and pinning (price moving a lot but ending near the starting point). Exercise caution and be prepared for potential traps. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5309-11 (major), 5294 (major) Major Supports: 5271 (major), 5249 (major), 5217-20 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5329-31 (major), 5342 (major), 5361 (major) Major Resistances: 5398-5400 (major), 5433-36 (major) Trading Strategy Post-Rally Caution: The market is overdue for a correction after the recent parabolic move. Prioritize protecting profits and consider reducing exposure. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5309-11, followed by a reclaim above 5314, as a potential long entry point. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. If considering shorts, look for a test and bounce/failed breakdown at 5309-11, then consider shorting at 5306 for a move down the levels, exiting all runners at 5294. Proceed with extreme caution as shorting in an uptrend is risky. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending 5309-11 is crucial for maintaining short-term bullish momentum. A hold here would allow for further base-building and potentially another leg up to 5330, 5342. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5309-11 triggers a more significant dip. Consider shorting at 5306 after a bounce/failed breakdown confirmation, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for May 17th, 2024 🌍 Eurozone Financial Stability Risks: The European Central Bank has issued warnings regarding the fragility of financial stability in the Eurozone amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties during a significant election year. 💼 U.S. Defense Spending Surge: Recent U.S. military budget allocations have reached new heights, with significant implications for global military and defense strategies. 💰 China's Treasury Sell-Off: In a notable shift in financial strategy, China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency bonds, marking a record sell-off that underscores evolving trade and economic relations. 📉 Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Strategy: The Federal Reserve signals a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic recovery. 📈 Global Trade Dynamics: A significant rebound in global trade is anticipated, driven by easing inflation and robust economic activities in key regions, promising a shift in international trade flows and economic recovery.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
Info Edge (India) Ltd Showing Strong Up-Side MomentumStrong operating businesses Strong Operating Cash generation year with a run- rate of c1000 Cr plus (pre Tax) annually and growing. Negative working capital due to advance subscription fees (Rs 925 cr as on 31/12/23) Asset-light business models "Zero" Debt. Well Defined approach towards Financial Investments AIF structure for eventual and self-sustained independent financial investment business. Partnered with reputed Sovereign Fund (Temasek Holdings). AIF contribution commitment is currently pegged at ~USD 212.5m Funds created with a term of 12-14 years. Established Dividend payout track record. Formal dividend policy of paying 25%-40% of standalone cash PAT. Track record of consistent dividend payout for last 16 years. Paid 28% of cash PAT as dividend till date. Info Edge is India’s premier online classified company with a portfolio of brands. It owns various brands in different fields like naukri.com (online recruitment), 99acres.com (online real estate), jeevansathi.com (online matrimonial) as well as shiksha.com (online education information services). It also acts as an investor and has invested in many start-ups in the online space and is actively growing its investment portfolio. Company is almost debt free. Company has delivered good profit growth of 55.9% CAGR over last 5 years B2B revenues (as on date) comprise ~90% of overall Naukri revenue and includes: Resume database access (Naukri & iimjobs) Job Posting (response management) Employer branding (visibility) Application tracking tools (Zwayam) eHire - Resume short listing and Walk-ins Assessment services (Do-select) ■ B2C includes revenue from Job seeker services Career enhancement services (AmbitionBox, Coding Ninjas, Naukri Learning)
NSE:NAUKRILong
by iism-ExpertTrading
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.12 - 5.17Last Week : Last week market opened above 5159.25 - 54.25 Key Resistance and gave a pull back/hold of that area showing us that it was holding as Support now. We knew that from there we could either Fail at or around VAH and pull back under that Key area or we could get through VAH and if we hold above that can bring in more buyers to give us pushes towards the above Edge. We were able to push through VAH during Globex session creating a gap which held above VAH during RTH and gave us the first push to the above Edge. Rest of the week we spent consolidating around the Edge / above VAH without being able to push back in or even tag the VAH area which brought in more buyers to create a cost basis around that area and once selling ran out we pushed for next ranges VAL. As we saw from Fridays action we still have sellers at VAL and could not accept above 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Resistance for now, if we remember that area of 5263.25 - 5282.25 above VAL is our previously created GAP to the downside which we created when we first found the top in April, this gap was filled pretty quick but it was so big and still had Supply above so I decided to keep it and we can see on this retest that we still had Supply in it after spending time away from it. This Week : We are at tricky spot here as we now again have a Cost Basis and Support under us but also have Supply with Sellers above, of course this could be a spot for big reversal or for continuation through VAL inside above Value to start spending time in the BUT it could also be a tricky spot where we will spend time between this Supply and Cost Basis areas until market cleans up and accepts higher or lower. Volatility is down and we are getting closer to Summer trading which could mean even less volatility without big money trying to move the markets too much as we are now in a good spot for lower distribution, we can use the Supply above to keep us under and Supports below to keep us up while we clean up and fill orders. Going into this week we are set to open inside 5249.75- 5199.75 Intraday Range, we are inside Previous Day Range and just at or above T2 Range which to me says watch out for slower smaller range trading. Will it be the case ? we will have to see but what we know from Friday action is that we have buyers at 5234.25 - 30.25 which is the top of our Intraday range mean and we will call current Support, we also have buying at or right under 5240-38 area which kept us above the 34-30 with only one good test of it and we have Selling at 5264.75 - 60.75 which will be our Current Intrarange Resistance if we want to try and accept in the above Range, we also need to watch out for 5256 - 54 or so area as well because we have trapped supply over it on Fridays flush, we could spend some time around these above mentioned areas until we can decide if we will accept in the new Range above or if we will build up enough Supply to fill the buyers under 5234 - 30. Yes 5249.75 - 44.75 is still Key Resistance but for now it could act more as an intraday mean between our buyers and sellers and price may want to keep coming back towards it until we can either accept over 64 - 60 and start balancing in that Mean to show acceptance or we get under 34 - 30 into that Mean to fill the buyers. Careful for smaller ranges and quicker reversals, I have observed for now that with good entries market is giving 7-8 point clean moves until the reversals and chop come in, and will sprinkle in occasional 10 - 12+ moves but going into the beginning of the week I will focus on catching more of these 7 point moves from around the levels and not worry until bigger targets until market will show that it has potential for it because its easy to get caught up waiting for bigger moves and either giving back good profit on reversals or while waiting for continuation and end up ruining mental capital, instead can try and catch 2-3 of these 7-8 point moves and have a nice day. Levels to watch : Current Range 5249.75 - 5199.75 Means 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75 5240 - 38 and Under still has Buying and 34 - 30 can keep acting as Support longer than we want but if we accept under we need to watch out for balancing between the Means If Accept Over 5249.75 - 44.75 we have 5256 - 54 and 5264.75 - 60.75 to watch out and for price to possibly be coming back towards and under 49.75 - 44.75, would need to start balancing between 5264.75 - 5275.25 to show better acceptance in new range but if anything levels here would be Means 5264.75 - 60.75 // 5279.25 - 75.25 Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 IF Accept under Key Support and Edge Low levels are Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 Key Support 5159.25 - 5.25
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
GOLD’s recent period of consolidationGold ended the week higher after a late rally on Thursday and Friday. It had initially pulled back from its all-time high due to trendline resistance. The precious metal is expected to react to the latest US inflation data, which affects Treasury yields, interest rate expectations, and the US dollar. Gold bulls are hopeful that softer CPI data will drive the metal higher and test the all-time high. Gold broke its recent consolidation period, surpassing the resistance at $2,340/oz. Buyers pushed the price to a three-week high on Friday, and gold opened above the 20-day moving average. If it can stay above this level, further gains are expected. The ongoing situation in the Middle East may also contribute to increased demand for gold. In the near future, the trend of gold price is still being noticed by the falling price channel but it also has technical conditions to increase the price, but with the closing price position as shown in the chart, gold can still decrease. adjusted to test the EMA21 and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,335 – 2,330 – 2,305USD Resistance: 2,366 – 2,378USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2393 - 2391 ⚰️SL: 2397 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2381 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2329 - 2331 ⚰️SL: 2325 ⬆️TP1: 2336 ⬆️TP2: 2341
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 16th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 16th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but highly extended and statistically due for a significant pullback after 10 consecutive green days. Proceed with extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5308-10 (major) Major Supports: 5272 (major), 5253-56 (major), 5200-02 (major), 5145-50 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5327-31 (major), 5337 (major), 5370-72 (major) Major Resistances: 5395-5400 (major), 5430-35 (major) Trading Strategy Extreme Caution: 10 green days in a row is statistically rare, and a deep pullback could occur at any time. Long Opportunities: Avoid chasing long entries at current levels. Focus on potential bids at 5308-10 only after a dip and strong reaction (ideally, a failed breakdown of the afternoon low). Consider deeper longs at 5272, 5253-56, or lower majors only on strong confirmations (failed breakdowns of lows, etc.). Short Opportunities: While shorting in a strong uptrend is discouraged, those comfortable with counter-trend trades may consider the 5370-72 zone, but only after a bounce/failed breakdown. Proceed with extreme caution. Prioritize Preservation: Focus on protecting profits and minimizing risk exposure in this highly uncertain environment. Avoid overtrading and wait for high-probability setups. Bull Case Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES needs to hold above 5308-10 on any dips, with a new base forming between 5308 and 5331. This would be the most bullish scenario, leading to a potential test of 5337, 5348, then 5370-72. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5308-10 could trigger a substantial dip. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns at 5272, 5253-56, and lower major supports for potential long entries if the market rebounds. If 5308-10 fails, consider shorts after a bounce/failed breakdown at 5300. News: Top Stories for May 16th, 2024 📈 S&P 500 Hits All-Time High: Yesterday, the S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high, closing at 5,253 points. This reflects investor confidence and market optimism driven by favorable economic indicators and expectations of accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. 🌐 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are preparing for their spring meetings amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. These meetings will address global economic issues, including conflict impacts and strategic economic adjustments. 🏦 UN Economic Update: The United Nations will launch the mid-year update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024. This update will assess global economic conditions, highlighting challenges such as high interest rates, debt difficulties, and geopolitical risks. 📊 Wall Street Analyst Revisions: Wall Street analysts are revising their forecasts for the S&P 500 due to the market's unexpected strength. This reflects the dynamic nature of market expectations and investor agility in navigating the evolving financial landscape. 🌍 Critical Minerals Demand: Global economic discussions are focusing on managing the demand for critical minerals essential for low-carbon technologies. This ties into broader sustainability goals and the economic opportunities and challenges for developing countries.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
US Markets May Rally 60% to 100% On Strong Technical DataI posted a similar video yesterday, but it was taken down because I screwed up the content. So, I'll try to post this video without messing up the content. The US markets (particularly the NAS100 - as shown in this video) will likely continue to move in a strong bullish price trend - even against the multiple divergences and other technical peak/exhaustion patterns over the next 3 to 4+ years. Far too many people simply don't understand the dynamics at play right now, with the superheated US economy and the predatory Fed processes creating this parabolic Bullish price move. Be prepared. Many people will be picking tops for the next 3~4+ years, and you are going to hear a lot of FEAR in their voices. You must attempt to understand the true market dynamics at play and stay away from group-think. Hope you enjoy this video.
FX:NAS100Long
by BradMatheny
4
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought after 9 consecutive green days. Expect high volatility and the potential for a substantial rug pull triggered by the CPI data release. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5257 (major), 5215-17 (major), 5208 (major) Major Supports: 5162 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5096-5100 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5272 (major), 5302 (major), 5329-32 (major) Major Resistances: 5362-64 (major), 5398-5402 (major) Trading Strategy Expect Volatility: Prioritize capital preservation during the CPI release and limit your trading activity. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5257 (if not already broken) or 5215-17 as potential long entry points after a CPI sell-off. Consider the 5162 and 5133-36 zones for deeper longs, but only on quick recoveries and failed breakdowns. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the unpredictable nature of CPI day, avoid shorting unless the market reacts very negatively to the data. Monitor potential back-tests of 5302 or 5329-32, but proceed with extreme caution. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5217-20 holds after the CPI dip, there's potential for continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range, setting up for a later breakout towards 5285, 5294, and 5302+. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5257 (extremely unlikely) to continue upwards with minimal correction. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5217-20, especially if the CPI news is negative, triggers a larger dip. Monitor failed breakdowns at 5162 and 5133-36 for potential long entries. News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024 📉 U.S. April CPI Report Released: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating a slight moderation in inflation with headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.6%. This data is crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). 📊 Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: The CPI data implies a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments. Despite a slight decrease in inflation, the rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, leading to market uncertainty about potential rate cuts (Federal Reserve). 🛢️ Sector-Specific Inflation: Significant contributors to the CPI increase included gasoline and shelter costs, which together accounted for over 70% of the monthly rise. Gasoline prices increased by 2.8% in April due to seasonal factors and changes in refinery practices (USA Today). 📈 Global Inflation Trends: The International Monetary Fund projects a global inflation rate decline to 5.8% for 2024, down from 6.8% in 2023. This trend is attributed to tighter monetary policies and a drop in energy prices, though regional variations persist, with hyperinflation in Venezuela and lower rates in developed economies (IMF). 🌐 Market and Trade Impact: High inflation rates can increase export prices, making goods less competitive globally, while countries with lower inflation may see more stable consumer prices and better trade balances. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to influence these dynamics (UNCTAD).
CME_MINI:ESM2024Long
by spytradingpro
AUDUSD's long-term bearish trend may eventually fadeAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Q2 FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK The Australian Dollar has been weak against the US Dollar in recent years, including 2024. However, there may be some positive news for Australian currency bulls, mainly due to weakness in the US Dollar rather than strong economic performance in Australia. Rising US interest rates and the safe-haven status of the Greenback have negatively impacted the Australian Dollar. Despite the Australian economy performing better than some Western peers during difficult times, this is not reflected in the AUD/USD chart. The US Federal Reserve is confident that interest rates will decrease this year, which has caused the value of the US dollar to decline. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar has shown some improvement. Although Australian borrowing costs are currently high, the Reserve Bank of Australia is hesitant to make any changes until they are certain that inflation will reach their target range. The recent inflation numbers in Australia were lower than last year's peak but still above the RBA's mandate. Therefore, with the possibility of lower US rates and unchanged rates in Australia, the Australian Dollar is expected to receive some support. Relations between Australia and China show signs of improving, but there are limits to this due to Australia's involvement in the 'AUKUS' defense arrangement with the United States and Britain, which China opposes. SIGNIFICANT AUD GAINS MAY HAVE TO WAIT The Aussie may receive support from a weaker Dollar and a less risk-averse market. The full effect may be seen later this year with expected Fed rate cuts. Australian banks predict AUD/USD to be above 0.70 by the end of 2024. If US inflation allows for planned Fed cuts, the Australian Dollar could stabilize and potentially rise cautiously. The view that US rates will decrease may face risks. The length of time it takes for rates to go down could be longer than expected. Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have the potential to decrease risk appetite, even without any other issues arising. Additionally, the currency has been declining against the US Dollar since early 2021, and any increases this year are unlikely to reverse that trend.
by Xayah_trading
4
EURUSD pushed higher on ThursdayEURUSD pushed higher on Thursday after bouncing off technical support at 1.0725, with prices challenging a key ceiling near 1.0790, where the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages intersect. If this barrier fails to contain buyers, the next stop is likely to be trendline resistance at 1.0810. On further strength, we could see a move towards a major Fibonacci threshold at 1.0865. Conversely, should the market undergo a reversal and pullback, initial support emerges at 1.0725, followed by 1.0695. Vigorous defense of this floor is crucial for bulls to stave off a more significant drop; failure to do so could pave the way for a descent towards 1.0645. Subsequent losses may bring into play the April lows at 1.0600.
by Xayah_trading
The Middle East is hot again, GOLD skyrocketedOANDA:XAUUSD jumped as weak US initial jobless claims data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials weighed on the US dollar, along with tensions. New tensions in the Middle East attract risk haven demand. Data released by the United States on Thursday showed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits increased by 22,000 in the week of May 4 to 231,000, the highest level since late August last year and higher than US expectations. economists are 215,000. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US is higher than expected and previous reports, showing that the economy is losing momentum. This could influence the Fed's future monetary policy decisions as they acknowledge that they are focused on a dual mandate (full employment and inflation.) San Francisco Fed President Daly said Thursday that the Fed would consider cutting interest rates if the job market worsens. Interest rates are currently holding back the economy, but it may take "longer time" to bring inflation back to target. Israel said on May 9 that ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip in the Egyptian capital Cairo had broken down and the Israeli army would continue to attack in the city of Rafah, southern Gaza Strip. Israeli officials also said the Israeli delegation left Cairo that day. According to reports from Egypt's Cairo News TV channel on May 9, negotiators from Hamas, Israel, Qatar and the US left Egypt that day after ceasefire negotiations in Gaza entered into. deadlock. According to a Reuters report on May 8, Hamas said on May 8 that it was not willing to make further concessions to Israel in ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. On May 8, Israel continued to use tanks and warplanes to attack the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, and threatened to launch a large-scale attack on this city. . Their troops entered the city through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt on the 7th, cutting off vital aid channels and the only exit for evacuating the wounded. In general, the fundamental picture is leaning towards the possibility of more support for gold prices, especially as the geopolitical situation has new escalation points. This causes shelter demand to cover the market and in all cases of widespread risk, gold is always chosen as the top shelter asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After a long period of accumulation, the gold price finally broke the accumulation triangle in yesterday's trading session, and it is worth noting that gold brought price activity back above the EMA21 level. In the short term, gold is still technically limited by the upper edge of the price channel and this is also the closest current resistance, noted at 2,366 USD. In case the price channel is broken, gold is eligible to continue to increase even more with the highest level at the all-time peak of 2,430 USD. Since the resistance at the upper channel edge is the most notable technical level currently, open short positions should be protected once this level is broken. On the other hand, if gold remains within the price channel, it is still likely to retest the $2,330 technical level in the short term. During the day, gold price is still in the downtrend price channel and technical levels will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,330USD Resistance: 2,366USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2366 - 2364 ⚰️SL: 2370 ⬆️TP1: 2359 ⬆️TP2: 2354 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2317 - 2319 ⚰️SL: 2313 ⬆️TP1: 2324 ⬆️TP2: 2329
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 13 - May 17]Gold prices surged to a three-week high of $2,375 an ounce on Friday due to weak U.S. economic data. The University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer confidence index fell to 67.4, lower than expectations. Additionally, there was an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims, reaching the highest level since last August. Investors are now awaiting next week's US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could greatly affect gold prices and the financial market overall. If inflation data released next week shows a slowdown, it could lead to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Financial markets expect the Fed to begin easing monetary policy in September, which could increase the appeal of gold due to lower interest rates. Traders currently see a 25% chance of a 0.5% rate cut in July, rising to nearly 49% in September. Changes in these expectations could impact gold prices. Data from the CFTC shows a decrease in gold futures contracts in the week ending May 7. Financial data and economic events next week: - Tuesday: US Producer Price Index (PPI), Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak in Amsterdam, Netherlands; - Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI), US retail sales, New York Fed Empire State Survey; - Thursday: US weekly initial jobless claims, US housing starts, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. 📌Gold broke out of an accumulation triangle and has shown two days of significant increases on the daily chart. It surpassed EMA21 and the price channel edge, signaling a potential breakout. If it breaks the bearish channel and goes above $2,366, it could enter a bull run. To confirm bearish conditions, gold would need to fall below EMA21 and stay below $2,330. The current support level is $2,330. The trading plan for next week will consider buying if the price returns to around the 2320 barrier, and selling if the price rises around the 2400 barrier.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
The GOAT Returns - pt1: SPX to 4800I've been away refining my method and have returned to deliver a series of important predictions for the coming weeks. The first is a look at the general market using S&P futures. Here is a summary of this chart: ** 2 key levels (above and below): 5163 was the breakdown level from back in April - a retest of this level for resistance is very bearish, but if it breaks back above it can continue higher to 5260 where it will run into even greater resistance (dashed green path) 5040 is an equilibrium level that needs to hold as support if bulls want to keep this afloat. A direct break below 5040 is bearish. Expectation : A rejection at/around 5163 in the coming week OR a direct break below 5040 will initiate a selloff to 4800 by May 22nd, 2024. Depending on when we get either of the bearish signals outlined above, the earliest the drop to 4800 could occur is by 5/13/2024. ~We are completing a B-wave and the drop to 4800 will be the C wave in this corrective cycle off the April high. The extent of this B-wave will be determined by the parameters listed above (estimated B-wave will be from current peak 5140 to upper resistance 5260, 5140-5163 is the most likely ) ~Major distribution over the past month. I'm out of all longs and waiting for my signal to enter short positions. Not Financial Advice.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by JerryManders
35
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but cautious given the 8 consecutive green days. The risk of a sudden pullback increases as the market becomes more overbought. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235 (major), 5221-17 (major), 5210 (major) Major Supports: 5192 (major), 5174-76 (major), 5144-47 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5262 (major), 5272 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5327-29 (major), 5400-05 (major) Trading Strategy Chop Zone Management: The 5235-5262 zone is a chop area, making it difficult to trade with high conviction. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5235 or 5210 for long entries. Prioritize reactions at these levels, ideally with quick recoveries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5192, 5174-76. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. For those inclined to counter-trend shorting, consider 5272 or 5302 as potential levels, but proceed with extreme caution. Bull Case Uptrend Continuation: As long as 5235 holds (or any breakdown is quickly recovered), the bullish trend remains intact. Focus on a potential base building within the 5235-5262 range, followed by an upside breakout targeting 5272, 5290, and ultimately 5302. Ultra Bull Case: No dip below 5235, with continued basing above it. Reclaiming 5245 could be a signal to add exposure, but only with acceptance and no break above 5262. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5235 would trigger a potential correction. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5231, 5221-17, and 5210 for short entry opportunities, but prioritize a more significant level like 5192 for confirmation and to avoid traps. News: Top Stories for May 14th, 2024 China's Strategic Bond Sale: China initiates a substantial bond sale, aiming for $140 billion to combat its property crisis and stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects. Russia's Economic Resilience: Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy shows unexpected strength, with GDP projected to outpace the U.S. This resilience is attributed to increased non-oil revenues and strategic fiscal management. Indonesia's Nickel Boom: Western car manufacturers are flocking to Indonesia for its nickel resources, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Indonesia's growing importance in the global EV supply chain. Meme Stock Mania Returns: The meme stock phenomenon resurges, with GameStop and AMC Entertainment experiencing significant price volatility following social media activity by influential traders. Global Economic Concerns: Leaders from Serbia, North Macedonia, and Georgia express apprehensions about the requirements for joining international economic communities, potentially impacting regional economic policies. China's Bond Sale and Global Implications: China's upcoming bond sale aims to bolster its economy and could influence global interest rates, foreign exchange markets, and international bond market dynamics. Meme Stock Resurgence and Market Volatility: The return of "Roaring Kitty" to social media sparks a renewed frenzy in meme stocks, leading to dramatic price swings in GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro
Three Factors Keeping Oil Prices in CheckAT A GLANCE: Despite ongoing geopolitical conflict, oil prices and volatility are relatively low A rise in U.S. crude production and weak demand in China are helping oil inventories maintain average levels Considering many factors like the Russia-Ukraine war, OPEC+ cutting production by 3.6 million barrels per day and conflict in the Middle East, many traders might be surprised to find out that oil prices are only around $82 per barrel and that implied volatility on crude options are trading at relatively low levels below 40%. Inventories Remain at Average Levels So why are crude oil prices not higher and more volatile? Part of the answer lies in inventories. Crude and product inventories are right around their seasonally adjusted averages for the past five years. This suggests that at least some cushion exists in the event of a supply disruption. Given that oil production is about 3.5% lower globally than it would have been without OPEC+ production cuts, how is it possible that oil inventories are still at average levels? There are two reasons. First, a boom in U.S. production has replaced about one third of what OPEC cut. The second reason is weak demand. China buys about 10 million barrels per day in the international markets, and its economy has been growing much more slowly than it was a few years ago. Slow growth in China often hits oil prices with a lag of about 12 months and may be among the factors preventing a further rise in global crude prices. Higher Prices Expected? That said, traders are displaying some signs of nervousness. The skew on CME Group’s WTI CVOL index is quite positive at the moment, suggesting that some traders are buying out of the money call options to protect themselves from the possibility of much higher prices. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by CME_Group
2
GOLD enters accumulation when there is little fundamental impactThe story in financial markets focuses on when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy after releasing weak economic data. The U.S. Department of Labor said that nonfarm payroll employment in April was 175,000, lower than expected and lower than March's upwardly revised figure of 315,000. After the data was released, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased to 64.8% from 55% before the report. However, the US Dollar has been boosted by recent hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Nir Kashkari, who said the Fed could continue to raise interest rates and set the stage for higher federal funds rates. if inflation does not continue its downward trend. This week's economic calendar will mainly focus on news from Federal Reserve officials, as well as initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 and a preliminary release of the index. University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. In general, throughout this week there was no data or events of a very sudden nature, so gold is also less subject to fundamental impacts and is suitable for the current state of narrow range movement. Gold keeping its price activity below EMA21 gives it more room to fall. However, with the current market context, without many fundamental impacts, gold prices may continue to move in a narrow range and enter accumulation. The accumulation area is noticed by EMA21 and the Fibonacci 0.236% level, in which EMA21 is the resistance and Fibonacci 0.236% is the support. If gold falls below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will open a new downtrend with the short-term target level being the upper edge of the price channel and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, even if price activity rises above the EMA21 level, gold price will still be limited by the 2,365 level and the upper edge of the price channel because the current technical trend is still down in the short term. During the day, gold has a technical outlook of moving sideways and accumulating with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,322 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362 ⚰️SL: 2368 ⬆️TP1: 2357 ⬆️TP2: 2352 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2289 - 2291 ⚰️SL: 2285 ⬆️TP1: 2296 ⬆️TP2: 2301
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD accumulates and shrinks,the market lacks fundamental impactScarce U.S. economic data will keep investors focused on Federal Reserve officials in the week following last Friday's U.S. jobs report. Gold prices are trading around 2,312USD/oz after reaching a daily high yesterday of 2,321USD/oz. The story in financial markets focuses on when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy after releasing weak economic data. The U.S. Department of Labor revealed that nonfarm payroll employment in April was 175,000, lower than expected and lagging March's upwardly revised figure of 315,000. "Lack of progress" in inflation has pushed back expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut from July to September. However, the market still expects three interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points. in this year. The report said that the lack of progress since the beginning of this year means that it will take longer for Fed policymakers to believe that inflation is continuing to fall toward the 2% target. They expect 3-month and 6-month annualized core PCE to be "near or below" 2% by the end of the year, in which case it would be "too late" to wait until after September to cut rates . This week's economic calendar will take a closer look at news from Federal Reserve officials, as well as initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 and a preliminary release of the index. University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is generally still entering the stage of accumulating attention from readers in previous publications. However, gold prices are also becoming more narrowly accumulated as depicted by the green triangle on the chart. In terms of overall factors, gold prices are more likely to decline because the main trend has not changed, noticed by the short-term downward price channel and the latest pressure from the 21-day moving average EMA21. As long as the gold price remains below the EMA21, it still has enough room to fall in the short term. Meanwhile, gold could open a new bearish cycle if it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, then the target level is aimed around the lower channel edge and upper channel edge, more likely to be the 0.382 Fibonacci level %. Temporarily, gold prices will continue to tend to accumulate without much macroeconomic impact on the market. But the technical conditions still favor the possibility of price reduction as mentioned above. During the day, notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,300 – 2,284USD Resistance: 2,330 – 2,340 – 2,345USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2339 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2268 - 2270 ⚰️SL: 2264 ⬆️TP1: 2275 ⬆️TP2: 2380
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought and due for a pullback. Traders are advised to exercise extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains over chasing further upside. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5236 (major), 5225, 5213 (major) Major Supports: 5202-04 (major), 5186 (major), 5155 (major), 5112-15 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5261 (major), 5272 (major), 5303 (major) Major Resistances: 5329 (major), 5354 (major), 5398-5400 (major) Trading Strategy Pullback Anticipation: Expect a pullback after 7 consecutive green days. Be prepared for a sudden reversal and adjust your strategy accordingly. Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5236, then 5213 for long entries. Look for bounces and reclaims, especially if price dips below 5209. Consider deeper longs at major supports (5186, 5155) only if the market shows substantial weakness. Short Opportunities: While avoiding shorting green candles and breaking trends is advised, monitor back-tests of 5272 and 5303 for potential short entries. Proceed with extreme caution and be prepared for sharp reversals. Consolidation Zone: Focus on the 5236-5261 range as a potential consolidation zone. Monitor the price action closely within this range for clues about the next directional move. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5236 holds, continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range is likely. This would suggest a pause before a potential breakout toward 5272, 5285-88, and ultimately 5303. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5236 and continue building a base overnight for the most bullish scenario. This could trigger a move higher without a significant dip. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5236 triggers a dip, targeting 5213 initially, with potential to extend to the 5186-5115 zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 13th, 2024 1. Corporate Earnings Surge Details: A notable rise in Q1 2024 earnings has been reported among S&P 500 companies, with a majority exceeding analysts' expectations. Impact: This upsurge signals a strong corporate sector potentially boosting market confidence and influencing stock prices. 2. Central Bank Stances on Interest Rates Context: With persistent inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are cautiously maintaining current interest rates. Implications: This strategy aims to control inflation without disrupting economic stability, reflecting a delicate balance in monetary policy. 3. IMF's Global Growth Forecast Forecast: The IMF projects a global growth rate of 3% for 2024, with potential long-term economic challenges. Significance: This modest growth underscores global economic sluggishness, necessitating strategic economic measures. 4. Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Impact Developments: Tensions in the Middle East are intensifying, affecting global markets and commodity prices. Consequences: These geopolitical issues are critical for financial stability, influencing both market volatility and investor sentiment. 5. Key Economic Indicators Release Upcoming Data: Major economic indicators like consumer price indexes and retail sales are scheduled for release this week. Relevance: These indicators are crucial for assessing the economic health of major economies and will influence forthcoming monetary policy decisions.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by spytradingpro