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2/19-2/20 Monday and Tuesday Trading PlanApologies for the formatting today. TradingView has a formatting bug in their editor and this is the only way to publish until it's been resolved. Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish Vanguard's Economic Outlook: U.S. Consumer Health: Entering 2024, U.S. consumers remain financially healthy, potentially bolstering or stabilizing economic growth despite recession risks. S&P 500 Earnings Growth: Earnings Expectations: Wall Street's anticipation of double-digit earnings growth in 2024 and 2025, with the risk of market corrections if these expectations are not met. Stock Market Performance: Bullish Momentum: The S&P 500's continued growth into January 2024, reaching new highs amid a robust U.S. economy and mixed earnings reports. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook: Speculation on Rate Cuts: Market optimism for potential Fed rate cuts in 2024, tempered by analysts' caution over premature expectations. Tech Stock Valuations: Sustainability Concerns: Warnings about the sustainability of gains in major technology stocks, given their valuations. S&P 500 Milestone: Historic High: The index breaking above 5,000, signaling investor optimism and potential for further gains. Asian Currencies and Fed Rate Cuts: Currency Impacts: Potential benefits for certain Asian currencies from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. France's Economic Growth Outlook: Growth Revision: France's lowered economic growth outlook for 2024, with implications for President Macron's economic strategy. European Banks' Profits: Record Profits: European banks' profits exceeding 100 billion, largely benefiting from rising interest rates. Regulatory Actions: Property and Tech Regulations: Expected UK curbs on short-term property rentals and EU fines on Apple, reflecting regulatory trends. Trading Plan for Monday/Tuesday: Support Levels to Watch: Critical Supports: 5016-18 and 4998, serving as pivotal points for market stability and potential shifts. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key Resistances: 5046-48 and 5055-58, acting as barriers to upward market movements and indicators of sentiment shifts. Trading Strategy: Holiday Session Caution: Emphasis on cautious trading during low volume holiday sessions, with a focus on capital preservation and disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels. Tactics: Focus on disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, prepared to adapt quickly to market dynamics, especially in light of holiday sessions and OPEX Fridays. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Short
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 02.11 - 02.16Lets check out market structure from last week and see what we can lean on this week. Last Week : Last week started off at VAL of current HTF Range, market opened Sunday over Key area but wasn't able to hold over which provided sells back towards the Edge but was only able to hit a couple lower targets before it found more buying at and over the Edge which told us we weren't ready to continue lower from there. Once we got over and held 72-67 area as Support which brought in more buying, we took out 88-84 Resistance which trapped shorts below and gave a nice push towards higher targets. We hit resistance at Key Area of 5019-13.75 but market again wasn't able to get back under the mean and instead we created a cost basis, got over Key Resistance and pushed to test VAH. First VAH Test in Pre-market gave a nice sell back into previous Key Resistance but failed to break making it our Support, once selling over 28.50-34 area ran out we were able to continue to next level up at 48.75-45.75 which provided Resistance for the day. This Week : So far Friday market was able to hold VAH and gave a push over it end of day. Going into this week we have a Cost Basis at the Mean area of the HTF Range and we have our Key HTF Edge right above us which is a great spot for profit taking from size longs. This to me is kind of hinting on possible balance action inside our new range which is 5013.75 - 5066. Cost Basis at the Mean could provide the needed Support and the selling from/under the Edge could provide the needed resistance to keep us inside this range until we either have enough Supply/Volume to break back under and continue towards VAL or give another consolidation and if more buying comes in try to push through the Edge. I feel like this Edge is the one that will kind of stop this train from going further, of course we never know and can continue if buying comes in but if not this is a perfect spot for market to find good HTF Resistance and start a distribution process under it filling in the shorts who got trapped on the way up, holding the market here will also bring in new buyers as well who will be looking for continuation higher towards 5100 but if they aren't strong enough to actually push us through this area then that would be our Supply when we are ready to accept back in Value and head for VAL. This might take time to play out and wont be surprised if we spend the whole week in this current Range without acceptance over/under for now. We could see tests out of Key areas but need to be careful for continuations from them. I will be looking to trade back and forth level to level inside this 5066 - 5013.75 Range until I see acceptance over/under. Levels to Watch: Current Resistance 5048.75 - 45.75 Key Resistance 5065.75 - 60.75 IF Accept Over Next Level up is 5077.75-81 Area Current Support 5034 - 31 - 28.50 Area Key Support 5019 - 13.75 Would need to hold under to see anything lower IF it does levels under are 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988-84.25
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2
2/15 Friday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish OPEX Day = High Volatility Things could go either way today, so exercise extreme caution. I do not trade on OPEX days. The last hour of the trading session will be a determining factor on where we're headed next week. Stock Market Outlook: Earnings Growth Expectations: Wall Street's anticipation of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2024 and 2025, coupled with the risk of a significant correction if these expectations are not met, underscores the market's current optimism and potential volatility. Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Speculation: The bullish momentum of the S&P 500 is partly driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot, yet concerns arise that the market may be overly optimistic about the timing and justification of rate cuts. U.S. Consumer Spending: Sustained Strong Spending: Despite the surge in household debt, strong consumer spending supported by job gains and lower inflation fuels speculation about a potential "soft landing" in 2024. Federal Reserve and Inflation: Progress on Inflation: The Federal Reserve's actions have led to a reduction in inflation levels, though still above the target, raising speculation about possible rate cuts in response to economic conditions. Recession Risks: High Recession Probability: Rosenberg's prediction of an 85% chance of a recession in 2024 based on comprehensive economic indicators highlights the underlying risks in the current economic environment. Global Economic Outlook: Challenges to Global Growth: Tight monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty continue to pose risks to global economic growth, with specific challenges facing economies like Japan and expectations of subdued global growth in 2024. Asian Markets: Wall Street's Rally Influence: Asian shares, particularly Japan's Nikkei, reflecting Wall Street's rally despite Japan's economic contraction, emphasize the interconnectedness of global markets. Corporate News: Semiconductor Sector Optimism: Applied Materials Inc.'s bullish revenue forecast highlights the sector's growth potential amid increased investments in semiconductor production. Energy and Commodities: Oil Price Fluctuations: The slight declines in U.S. benchmark crude and Brent crude prices reflect the ongoing volatility in the energy market. Currency Markets: Dollar's Movement: The U.S. dollar's performance against major currencies underscores the currency market's sensitivity to economic data and policy decisions. 📈 Trading Plan for Friday: Support Levels to Watch: Key Supports: 5010 and 4998-5000, serving as crucial points for gauging market stability or signaling potential shifts. Resistance Levels to Watch: Critical Resistances: 5046-48 and 5063-65, acting as barriers to upward market movements and indicators of potential shifts in sentiment. Trading Strategy: OPEX Friday Caution: The emphasis on capital preservation and cautious trading in light of OPEX Friday and the recent market rally. Bull Case: Monitoring the market's ability to maintain above key support levels for a continued rally, with an eye on reclaiming resistance levels for sustained momentum. Bear Case: Preparation for a downward trend should key support levels, particularly 4998-5000, fail to hold, signaling deeper market corrections. Tactics: Focus on disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, prepared to adapt quickly to market volatility and OPEX day dynamics. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Short
by spytradingpro
2/15 Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish U.S. Economic Projections: Rosenberg's Recession Warning: Forecasts an 85% chance of a recession in 2024, highlighting financial conditions and the yield curve as critical indicators. Global Economic Outlook: Tight Monetary Policy Impact: The World Economic Situation and Prospects report underscores the impact of tight monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty on global growth. Japan's Economic Status: Shift in Global Rankings: Japan's economy contracted, marking a technical recession and positioning it as the world's fourth-largest economy. Stock Market Movements: Market Optimism vs. Volatility: Despite recent gains, there's caution over volatility and market corrections tied to central bank actions. Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin's Resurgence: A significant recovery for Bitcoin, reflecting renewed investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. Corporate Earnings and Job Cuts: Mixed Corporate Sentiment: A strong earnings season faces pressure from potential rate cut delays and job cuts in response to economic conditions. Inflation and Monetary Policy: Central Bank Challenges: Inflation data has led to uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline, impacting markets and treasury yields. Geopolitical Tensions: Stability Concerns: Ongoing conflicts and tensions underscore the importance of geopolitical stability for economic confidence. 📈 Trading Plan for Thursday: Support Levels to Watch: Key Supports: 5010, 4998-5000, and 4984, serving as crucial points for maintaining current market stability or signaling potential shifts. Resistance Levels to Watch: Critical Resistances: 5018 and 5034-36, acting as barriers to upward market movements and indicators of potential shifts in sentiment. Trading Strategy: Post-Inflation Data: The unexpected inflation report necessitates a cautious trading approach, with emphasis on navigating potential volatility. Bull Case: Monitoring the market's ability to maintain above 5010 and potentially reclaim key resistance levels for a continued rally. Bear Case: Preparation for a downward trend should key support levels, particularly 4998-5000, fail to hold, signaling deeper market corrections. Tactics: Focus on disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, prepared to adapt quickly to market volatility following economic data releases. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Short
by spytradingpro
5
2/14 Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish U.S. Economic Projections: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Outlook: Projects a slowdown in 2024 with a potential rebound in 2025 as the Federal Reserve lowers rates. The 2024 deficit is anticipated to be smaller than previously estimated, indicating a cautious approach towards monetary policy. Stock Market Performance: Inflation's Impact: Unexpectedly high January inflation led to significant market corrections, with the Dow experiencing a notable drop. Tech stocks, including giants like Apple and Amazon, were particularly affected. Interest Rates and Inflation: Federal Reserve's Stance: The anticipation of the Fed's rate cuts has been postponed due to the inflation report, affecting Treasury yields and the overall market sentiment. Investment Trends and Strategies: 2024 Outlook: Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with AI in finance, digital currencies, and sector-specific strategies being highlighted as key investment trends. Corporate News and Global Market Trends: Corporate Movements: Notable acquisitions and earnings reports, such as KKR's stake in Cotiviti and ABN AMRO's profit beat, influence market dynamics. Global shares showed mixed responses to U.S. inflation data. Recession Concerns and Geopolitical Factors: Economic Risks: Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and concerns over a potential recession in 2024 continue to pose uncertainties for the global economy. 📈 Trading Plan for Wednesday: Support Levels to Watch: Critical Supports: 4928-33 and 4956, serving as pivotal points for market stability or indicating potential downward trends. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key Resistances: 4969-71 and 5018, acting as barriers to upward movement and indicators of market sentiment shifts. Trading Strategy: Post-Inflation Report: Given the market's reaction to the inflation data, traders should adopt a cautious approach, prioritizing capital preservation. Bull Case: Focus on the market's ability to reclaim key resistance levels, particularly 5018, for a potential rally towards 5057 and beyond. Bear Case: Prepare for further declines if support levels, especially 4928-33, fail to hold, potentially signaling deeper market corrections. Tactics: Emphasize disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, with readiness to adapt to market volatility post-inflation report. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Short
by spytradingpro
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. For gold i updated my weekly chart and bears proved me very wrong. Here my quote from the weekly outlook: short term: slightly bullish to top of triangle, invalid below 2030 Obviously they did break below big time and now bulls are doing everything they can to keep this above 2000. bull case: Bulls have to keep this above 2000 or bears will take over and push this to 1950. Since we are in a big trading range for a long time, odds favor the bulls for a short term bounce, probably to around 2020/2023 where market decides what’s it gonna be next. bear case: Bears broke out of the triangle and closed the bullish gap, now they need follow through. If they are strong, they should be able to keep it below 2030 and then sell to their first target 1990 and then 1950. short term: bearish - expecting some smaller bounce before more down medium-long term: odds for the bears risen significantly today. if they can get follow through, we will form a proper bear channel soon from which we can calculate new lower targets below 1900. still neutral until follow through trade of the day: short below the CPI bear spike for bet on follow through
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
2/13 Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish Catalyst: The latest CPI results will be released this morning at 8:30 AM (EST). U.S. Economic Projections: Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Forecasts slower economic growth in 2024 with unemployment rising due to tight monetary policy, but expects growth rebound in 2025 as Federal Reserve lowers interest rates. Global Stock Market Movements: Fluctuations observed with the S&P 500 reaching record highs, driven by optimism and big tech performance. Nikkei 225 also sees significant gains. Interest Rates and Inflation: Inflation easing may lead Federal Reserve to begin rate cuts later in the year, fostering hope for resolution against inflation. Investment Trends and Strategies: Trends focus on AI's impact on finance, performance of digital and cryptocurrencies, and outlook for tech and ESG funds. AI in Finance: Vanguard incorporates AI into quant stock funds, highlighting the trend of AI integration into investment strategies. International Developments: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's engagements in the UAE and Qatar aim to deepen bilateral ties. Corporate Bonds and Insurance: U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds expected to offer impressive returns in 2024, while insurers may focus on margins over growth. UK Market and Employment: The UK's unemployment rate falls, indicating a tight job market. Wage growth and unemployment trends remain critical. 📈 Trading Plan for Tuesday: Support Levels to Watch: Critical Supports: 5034, 5018-20, and 4959, indicating pivotal points for maintaining bullish momentum or indicating potential bearish shifts. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key Resistances: 5048-50, 5057, and 5070-76, serving as potential targets for upward movement or reversal points for bearish trends. Trading Strategy: CPI Day Caution: Emphasize capital preservation, acknowledging potential volatility from CPI data release. Bull Case: Focus on holding above 5018-20 for bullish continuation, eyeing targets at 5057 and 5076-80. Bear Case: Watch for breach below 5018-20, indicating a shift towards bearish sentiment and potential deeper sell-off. Tactics: Emphasize disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, with cautious engagement in new positions given expected market volatility from CPI data. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024Short
by spytradingpro
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today we witnessed a perfect bull trap above the recent new all time highs for US markets. Here is the most important quote from my weekly outlook i posted yesterday: We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. The higher highs maybe higher than i anticipated, yet the thesis was and is perfect and if bears can get follow through the next days, the highs are in for maybe a decade. sp500 Quote from yesterday’s weekly outlook: We could easily see a 200 point drop to the daily 20ema because no one wants to be left holding the bag buying at the ath and the market is overdue for some sort of minor correction. Bears wont get a bigger one until we have traded more sideways at the highs. Biggest question now is the monthly close and if bears manage to close it below 5000, i think its very likely that the highs are in for the year. Targets for the bears next week are 5000, 4950, 4900. Market rallied hard and fell harder afterwards to close below Friday’s close. Perfect bull trap. bull case: Bulls made another ath and have many support lines to buy from. As long as they keep it above 5025, bulls are still in control. They want to trade back up from the lower bull channel trend lines for at least a retest of 5050 or 5066. bear case: Bears stepped aside for the opening rally to a new ath, just to aggressively sell the double top bar 13 at 5065. The sell off was strong enough to expect a second leg and a measured move would bring us right back to 5000. They trapped many late bulls and many more will have stops around 5020/5000. So if bears can generate good follow through, we might see more big profit taking. Next target below 5000 is the daily 20ema around 4940. short term: sideways to down medium-long term: medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: long from the open because it was right at the 1h 20ema and bar 9 was a good 15m bull signal bar and short bar 13 (was a perfect double top on the 5m chart)
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
2/12 Monday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral Economic Data Releases: S&P Global Market Intelligence: Anticipated inflation and GDP data across Western economies, with U.S. CPI figures, UK GDP, inflation, labor market statistics, and Japan's GDP data in focus. Australia's Employment Data: Expected to show job growth, albeit at a softer pace. Market Sentiment and Indices: S&P Global Investment Manager Index: To provide insights into risk sentiment influenced by central bank policies, notably the Fed. S&P/TSX Composite Index: Watched closely alongside Canadian dollar and benchmark yield movements. Corporate News: Galp Energia SGPS SA: Warned of lower earnings for the year. Gilead Sciences' Acquisition: Announced a $4.3 billion deal for CymaBay Therapeutics. Market Movements: S&P 500: Indicating a strong bull market since October 2022 with 10 new highs in 16 days. Diamondback Energy's Acquisition: A significant $26 billion deal with Endeavor Energy Resources. Commodity Prices: Silver and Gold Prices: Declined amidst diminished expectations of Fed rate cuts. Global Market Updates: US Equities: Reached a more than two-year peak despite regional bank concerns and China’s market pressures. China's Consumer Prices: Highlighting deflation pressures with the fastest pace decline since the global financial crisis. Financial Services News: Oil Market: Observations on investors dumping oil following a U.S. refinery shutdown. U.S. Treasury Market: Treasury yields dipped as key economic data and Federal Reserve officials' comments are awaited. 📈 Trading Plan for Monday: Support Levels to Watch: Critical supports at 5039-40, 5028, and 5018-20, indicating pivotal points for maintaining bullish momentum. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key resistances at 5047, 5054, and 5065-70, serving as potential targets for upward movement. Trading Strategy: The strategy emphasizes capital preservation, acknowledging the chop range and potential for volatile movements. Bull Case: Focus on maintaining above 5028 for bullish market continuation. Bear Case: Watch for breach below 5028, indicating potential shift towards bearish sentiment. Tactics: Emphasize disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, with cautious engagement in new positions given the expected market chop. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
5050 - Objective achievedConsidering the projection outlined for the future SPX in a previous analysis, I realize that the target pointed out by SETUP on the long-term chart has been reached. Therefore, I think we have nowhere else to go up without at least having a small correction towards the 4685 region if I only consider the graphical analysis. See the image below. Despite "reaching" the target, SETUP still shows that the index has a small strength to surpass this mark and reach the 5058 region, which can be seen as a buying trap for the most unsuspecting trader. Coming to the short-term chart, the SETUP used indicates that we are in an extremely overbought region, therefore, it shows that the index is losing strength and that it really needs to make a correction. See below. Do your analysis and it's good business. Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss! See other graphical analyzes below.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MacD_Bollinger
SP500: Outlook for a new high at 5100 before the crash.On the U.S. stock market front, there has been a significant increase in the S&P 500 index, which closed the session with a gain of 0.76% compared to the values before January 29. The opening was in line with the closure of the previous session, but during the day, there was a strengthening, culminating in the closure near the day's highs. Analysis of Status and Trend: From a short-term technical perspective, the Standard & Poor's 500 index shows an expansion of positive performance in the curve, with the first resistance area identified at 4,949. There is a potential risk of correction towards the target level of 4,885.7. The forecasts indicate an increase in the bullish trendline towards the resistance area of 5,012.4.
SP:SPXShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
2/9 Friday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral Global Market Update: Steady European and U.S. stock-index futures amidst anticipation for U.S. inflation data signal cautious market sentiment. Canada-EU Trade Talks: Potential impact on trade dynamics and market sentiment could emerge from discussions at the CETA Joint Committee in Brussels. 📝 Today's Recap: Canadian Economic Data: Upcoming jobs numbers and senior loan officer survey results are likely to influence market perspectives on Canada's economic health. Earnings Reports: Earnings from Enbridge Inc., Telus Corp., Magna International Inc., and PepsiCo Inc. offer insights into sector-specific performances. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Sports Betting Legislation: The slow legalization process in states like California and Missouri impacts the betting market and related sectors. Tesla's Elon Musk Compensation: Court ruling on Musk's compensation package raises discussions on executive remuneration and company performance correlation. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: 5009, 5000-4999, 4990: Key supports, with a focus on maintaining above 4990 for bullish market continuation. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: 5018, 5035, 5050: Critical resistances, indicating potential targets for upward movement if bullish momentum persists. 📅 Trading Plan for Friday: Approach: Capital preservation with minimal trading, acknowledging the current chop range and potential for volatile movements. Bull Case: Maintaining above 5000 signals continued bullish sentiment, targeting upward movements towards 5028 and beyond. Bear Case: Breach below 5000 may indicate a shift towards bearish sentiment, with potential for a pullback to lower support levels. Tactics: Emphasize disciplined trading within identified support and resistance levels, with cautious engagement in new positions given the expected market chop. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making trading decisions.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
2/8 Thursday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral RBI Monetary Policy (February 2024): Keeping repo rates unchanged indicates RBI's cautious stance on inflation, impacting market sentiment and future interest rate expectations. Banking and Financial Services Trends (2024): AI's growing influence, interest in digital currencies, customer experience focus, and cybersecurity concerns shape the financial sector's future. 📝 Today's Recap: Economic Trends and U.S. Financial Landscape (2024): Observations from SIEPR on economic challenges and policy questions, alongside investors' focus on Federal Reserve's decisions, provide insights into potential market directions. Global Economic Updates: Interest rate decisions by global central banks, including the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, alongside China's economic strategies, offer a broad perspective on global market trends. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: U.S. Jobs Report and Economic Growth: Strong job additions and GDP growth reflect economic resilience, potentially influencing Federal Reserve's future rate decisions. Danske Bank and CaixaBank Strategies: Strategic moves and forecasts by major banks underscore the banking sector's adaptability and future growth prospects. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: 5009, 4990, 4984 (Major), with a focus on 4984 as a critical support for maintaining the current market rally. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: 5018, 5035, 5048 (Major), indicating potential targets for upward movement if the market maintains its bullish trend. 📅 Trading Plan for Thursday: Approach: Cautious trading strategy amidst ongoing market analysis, with an emphasis on responding to key support and resistance levels. Bull Case: Maintaining support at 4984 crucial for the continuation of the market rally; targeting upward movements towards 5018 and beyond. Bear Case: Watch for failure at 4984 as an indication of potential market correction; short opportunities arise if major supports are breached. Tactics: Prioritize level-to-level trading, with a focus on major support and resistance levels for high-probability setups and disciplined profit-taking. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic; consult with a professional before making trading decisions. Risk management is essential.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today was the day i started talking about around 2 weeks ago. The price action of the last 6 days was conclusive and i had no doubt market will reach the given bullish targets for more bear pain. SP500 e-mini futures printed 5020 and printing a new ath tomorrow is highly probable. I hope you played it and made some. Quote from 2024-01-21 short term: up up up - can’t see this not printing 5000 in the next days or 2-3 weeks. Can markets reach even higher targets or will we get big profit taking and a correction? That’s the million dollar question and i can’t answer it for you, nor can anyone else. We are in the business of following big institutions and the given price action, not fortune telling. Other furus give you sensational clickbait targets which suit your bias, i won’t. My bullish bias has concluded with today and i see absolutely no reason to buy anything at these highs anymore. I am neutral short term until bears show up and bulls begin to take profit. After a first correction with follow through, i will evaluate lower prices but it’s unreasonable to talk about any bearish targets for now. sp500 bull case: Bulls printed 5020 and they want to party to continue. Can they even print higher prices? For sure but are you willing to buy the highs here? I’m not. Odds favor a new ath but you need a far better entry than 5015-5020 to have a good r:r for this. bear case: Bears need to show strength. Their first target is a close below 4980 (1h 20ema is around 4982) but i think the best they can hope for is a trading range at the highs before we get a major trend reversal. Today was 0 bearish price action, only bulls who took profits imo. short term: sideways medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: Tight trading range in EU session let to nothing, wait for breakout and enter above a good signal bar, breakout bar 27 should have been the long of the day. no reason to exit until close
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
The importance of trading with the trend + Suppy/Demand zonesA trend can be defined with price action or indicators. Understanding that all indicators lag and price behaviour is key I prefer price action to tell me if we are up trending, down trending or trading in a range. Before understanding the basics of market structure it is important to know that its more likely for a trend to keep going on than for the trend to reverse. That is why professional traders look for areas to jump on the trend not areas to go against it. Also, keep in mind what time frame are you using to define the trend, for example, if your trades don't last more than an hour would you jump on the weekly chart trend ? what happens in 1 hour won't affect the weekly chart. So if you are trading the 5 or 15 min chart you can trade with the trend of the 1 or 2 hour chart. How to define the trend ? • An up trend is when price is making higher highs and higher lows • A down trend is when price is making lower highs and lower lows. • If there is no way to define the trend then you can say it is in a trading range with no clear direction. When has the trend changed ? To explain a trend change we will consider the chart below. First we can notice a clear up trend making higher highs and higher lows (1,2,3) then we create a new lower low (4) where we break below previous higher low (2) then price fails to create a new higher high and instead creates a lower high (5), finally when price breaches the previous lower low at (6) we can consider a change of structure. opposite situation happens in a down trend market. ABCD CORRECTION PATTERN There is a very common pattern that pretends to be a change of structure but really it is just a correction pattern to continue the uptrend. Look at the example below. An up trend creates a higher high (A) and a higher low (B). Then creates a lower high (C) and finally a lower low (D) before continuing its up trend. What did not happen that the trend didn't change ? If the high after (C) had been also a lower high and then it breaks below (D) and (D) acts further as resistance then the trend had changed. What is more important here is to understand that trading a continuation of the trend has a higher probability of working, on the example shown the correction ended right at a 4hr demand zone that was valid because the trend was still skewed to the upside.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by FTWTraders
2
2/7 Wednesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish U.S. Jobs Report (January 2024): Significant job additions indicating robust economic activity, potentially affecting Fed's interest rate decisions. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision (January 2024): Rates held steady, with future cuts indicated, impacting investor sentiment and market strategies. Innovation Economy and Geopolitical Risks: Influential trends and uncertainties shaping market dynamics and investment decisions. 📝 Today's Recap: Housing Market and Supply Chain Developments: Challenges in housing affordability and ongoing adjustments in global supply chains are key factors affecting market trends. Stock Market Outlook and Banking Sector Movements: Continued bullish momentum with caution advised due to potential interest rate cuts and strategic moves in the banking sector. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Global Economic Trends and Financial Services News: Insights into economic challenges, policy questions for 2024, and strategic moves by financial institutions shaping the financial landscape. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: 4970, 4962-65, 4956, 4947 (Major), 4939, 4930-34, with particular interest in 4930-34 and 4909 for potential long positions. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: 4977, 4982, 4990-93 (Major), 5007, 5018, with emphasis on 4990-93 and 5018 for potential short positions or caution areas. 📅 Trading Plan for Wednesday: Approach: Cautious trading strategy amidst forming bull flag pattern and awaiting clear market direction post-job report and Fed's decision. Bull Case: Support at 4947 and 4962-65 pivotal for maintaining upward momentum; targeting moves towards 4977 and 4990 upon successful base building. Bear Case: Watch for failure at 4962-65 as an early warning, with significant attention on 4947 for potential deeper retracement or short setups. Tactics: Prioritize trading within the identified range, with a focus on high-probability setups and strict discipline around major support and resistance levels. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic; consult with a professional before making trading decisions. Risk management is crucial.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
PEPE Possible Cup and Handle Patternin my next limit order that I promised you last month, I have chosen PEPE because I am currently interested in how PEPE forms the cup and handle pattern. Of course to be more sure when you can get in would be the breakout as it sometimes happens that a coin only fakes the cup and handle. However, I have now personally bought Pepe here and placed further limit orders. This is also a Good Sample or Tutorial for you guys to see how the Cup and Handle Pattern works. Cheers
Long
by ML-Master
2
2/6 Tuesday Trading Plan📊 Market Sentiment: Neutral to Bearish Economic Positivity vs. Recession Risks: Ongoing discussions about potential economic slowdown amidst optimistic indicators. U.S. National Debt: Concerns over $34 trillion debt and its sustainability. Gold Prices: Driven to all-time highs by geopolitical tensions, banking uncertainties, and Fed's interest rate policies. Layoffs and Job Market: Over 720,000 layoffs signal caution among employers. Housing Market: Expected slight increase in median home prices. 📝 Today's Recap: Housing Market and Fed Policies: Fed's steady interest rates amid rising housing costs. China's Stock Market: Rally following government's increased stock purchases. Corporate Earnings: Meta's earnings growth and dividend introduction. Banking Sector: AI's transformative potential in banking for 2024. 🌍 Global Financial and Economic News: Investment Trends for 2024: Forbes highlights AI's impact on the financial sector. Financial Market Outlooks: Diverse predictions for 2024, from stock valuations to GDP expectations. 📉 Support Levels to Watch: 4965, 4954, 4947 (Major), 4942, 4930, 4915, 4908 Notable for potential bids: 4930 and 4908-4915 cluster. 📈 Resistance Levels to Watch: 4970, 4986-4990 (Major), 5018, 5028-5033 Key for potential shorts: 4986-4990 and 5028-5033 zones. 📅 Trading Plan for Tuesday: Approach: Conservative post-rally strategy, focusing on high-probability setups within the new base range. Bull Case: Maintain supports at 4965 and 4947 for base building; target upward moves to 4990 and beyond on breakouts. Bear Case: Watch for failure at 4947, signaling deeper retracement; consider shorts on breakdowns with tight risk management. Tactics: Emphasize level-to-level trading, particularly around 4965 and 4947 supports, and 4986-4990 resistance for potential reentries or reversals. 🛑 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Market conditions are dynamic; consult a professional before making trading decisions. Risk management is essential.
CME_MINI:ESH2024
by spytradingpro
GOLD is under pressure from Treasury bond yieldsGold prices fell on Monday, pressured by rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, following a series of solid US economic data, including January nonfarm payrolls and ISM Services PMI. Comments from Federal Reserve policymakers that an interest rate cut in March was unlikely also contributed to the decline in bullion prices. From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD slipped below the 50-day simple moving average following Monday's pullback, but managed to hold above horizontal support at $2,005. For precious metals sentiment to improve, this technical floor must hold; otherwise, sellers may become bolder to start attacking the $1,990 level. On further weakness, attention turns to $1,975. In the event of a bullish reversal in the coming days, which seems unlikely given the lack of positive catalysts and growing headwinds, the 50-day simple moving average is at $2,032 will be the first line of defense against further advances. Looking further out, the next important ceiling is $2,065, followed by $2,085, the late December high.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood evening and i hope you are well. Markets went sideways today, as was expected and laid out yesterday. We are forming many triangles, which means that prices are converging and we get a break out soon. Bears tried a bit but bulls bought it, which confirms my thesis of higher prices. I still expect a bit more sideways movement. If i had to guess, i’d say we reach the tops before Opex and crater into or afterwards. But that’s guesswork and you should not trade on such things. Let’s look at me painting and how the sp500 did today. Sell vacuum to support from the open down to 4937, which was 5 points above Friday’s open. Bulls bought it and bears stepped aside. We closed 11 points below the open. Daily 20ema + 15m 20ema is pretty flat and we are in multiple triangles. Odds just scream more sideways until breakout. bull case: Yesterday i said a pullback is in order and we will probably trade sideways, that was pretty spot on. Now we wait for the bull breakout and a new ath or a couple. I have no doubt market will print them. bear case: Still not much. Best they can hope for is a trading range and stop the advance but they are weak and when that changes, you will notice. It’s still BTFD. short term: Sideways to up. Look for longs. medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: Short from the open after bar 37 and exit on a bull bar. Buy the 3 bar reversal (bar 39, 40, 41), latest bar to long 44
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds