8.18.2024 Weekend Pre-Market Analysis Platinum Platinum pre-market analysis.
Setup out zones and levels to prep for the week ahead on Platinum.
Look for structure setup on the lower timeframes to get into the trade.
Futures
8.18.2024 Gold Extended To ATHsGold has extended to all time highs. It has broken through out top zone, so we no longer have a top zone as resistance.
Drew a channel on the chart that it may turn at. We will need to see a change in structure (Lower Highs/Lows) in order to short it, back to out previous zone it had broken.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [19 August - 23 August]This week, international gold prices have increased quite strongly. After falling slightly to 2,432 USD/oz, international gold prices soared to over 2,500 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,507 USD/oz.
International gold prices increased sharply this week because the market expected the FED to definitely cut interest rates at its September meeting. In addition, tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, causing many investors to worry that this tension could lead to a war in the Middle East, increasing the haven demand for gold. In addition, the USD declined as the Atlantic Council's USD Dominance Monitor Report said the USD's share in global reserves reached 58% by 2024, down 14% compared to 2002 as many countries Countries, especially members of the BRICS bloc, seek to stay away from the USD.
The focus for the gold market next week will be the Jackson Hole conference. The FED Chairman will provide assessments and updates on the US economy and the outlook for the FED's monetary policy.
If at the Jackson Hole conference, the FED Chairman continues to affirm that he will cut interest rates in September, it may push gold prices higher next week. However, if the FED Chairman changes his tone again, saying that the FED needs to continue monitoring the economic situation before cutting interest rates, it will cause gold prices to decline next week.
📌Technically, on the H4 technical chart, the extended Fibonacci shows that the gold price can reach the Target around 2,590-2,600 USD/oz. Short-term trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns around 2470, and sell around 2590.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.470 – 2.484USD
Resistance: 2.4600 – 2.544USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2469 - 2471⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2465
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [12 August - 16 August]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to fall sharply on Monday due to the Nikkei index falling 12%, leading to a sharp decline in global stock markets, forcing investors to sell gold to supplement their deposits. stock investment. At one point, the international gold price dropped to 2,364 USD/oz. However, immediately after that, gold prices continuously recovered because investors expected the FED to cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points in September. Accordingly, gold price climbed to 2,436 USD/oz and closed at 2,430 USD/oz. This may be a stepping stone for gold price increases next week.
In the coming week, there are quite a few important economic data that can strongly impact gold prices, such as the US Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). ) announced on Wednesday, followed by retail sales, a preliminary survey of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan for August... In which, PPI, CPI are forecast to continue to decrease slightly, creating favorable Conditions for the FED to cut interest rates next September may support gold prices next week.
In addition, many FED officials, such as Mr. Bostic, Musalem, Harker, and Goolsbee, will give speeches on monetary policy. However, according to many experts, most of these officials support the FED in cutting interest rates. This is also considered one of the driving forces for gold prices next week.
Technically, from a long-term perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend across time frames when prices are still above the moving average lines (EMA34, 89). However, a divergence signal has appeared on the D1 frame, while on the Weekly frame, the price of gold is quite far away from the EMA lines (the price can adjust to or move sideways with a wide range waiting to intersect with the average lines). The above 2 signals recommend that we should not join the buying side at this time. If we are buying, we should wait for price corrections.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.408 – 2.400USD
Resistance: 2.437 – 2.453 – 2.484USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2501 - 2499⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2505
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2374 - 2376⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2370
Oil slips again and Geopolitical tensions rise In my last post about Oil, I said that "Oil has a good possibility to get back to the range of 83.50 and 84.50", but also "Oil had broken 3 LH's that were created between July 22nd, 2024 and August 1st, 2024". I also mentioned that "we can see a pullback in the ranges of 78.84 and 77.12". In my outlook at the top of the week, I said that I was on the buyer's side until price showed otherwise. Now, price is showing signs of not continuing buys but settling into seller's territory.
In this latest out look, I'm going to give you my insight on where the market can possibly go going into next week. Around early 6AM, price broke the HL from last Friday that shot Oil up all the way to the 77.89 area on this past Monday. On Tuesday, price created the "M" formation signaling that sellers were now starting to step in that sent the market selling for the rest of the week. On today Friday, August 16th, Price hit a demand area that sent price shooting past the HL that i stated early in my typing. This could potentially mean that we are now in seller's territory for a minute depending on how the markets may move going into next week. We did leave a gap above after yesterday's sell movement that can send price back that way from Monday going into Tuesday depending on market conditions. I believe if price goes back that way it can be just to create a LH, IF price doesn't make buying structure. Right now my current outlook is bias until the market finds its footing from Monday-Tuesday.
Amid Oil selling from the technical side, Oil is facing rocky streets from fear of the United States economy as investors are getting ready to brace for interest rate cuts and other things going on in different countries. From Fed Powell, to Iran retaliation, and to China's weak economy, Oil is in some unpredictable territory especially with a lot of geopolitical tensions rising. Next week news combined with technicals will give a greater outlook on Oil.
GOLD still has all the conditions for price increasesUS economic data was stronger than expected and markets predict these data could influence the extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The USD and US bond yields increased, causing gold prices to encounter some difficulties for expectations of price increases.
OANDA:XAUUSD gave up gains earlier this week, after US inflation data showed inflation eased in July. However, gold remains near all-time highs set last month. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have increased 19%, mainly due to optimistic market expectations about loosening monetary policies and gold purchasing activities of central banks.
The latest data released by the United States shows that the core consumer price index (CPI) in July, which is a price index that excludes food and energy costs, fell to its lowest level compared to the same month last year. since the start of 2021. This suggests inflationary pressures have eased, supporting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month.
U.S. retail sales rose 1.0% last month after falling 0.2% in June, the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau said.
In particular, a report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans newly applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in a month.
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%.
The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 59.1%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 36.2%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative yield of 100 basis points is 4.8%.
As a non-interest-paying asset, gold prices typically increase when interest rates fall. As inflation slows, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will increase, further boosting gold's appeal. In addition, gold purchasing activities of central banks around the world have also become reliable support for gold prices.
In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical instability is also a major factor driving gold demand. Tensions in the Middle East and conflict between Russia and Ukraine have increased gold's appeal as a safe haven asset.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is slowing down after a string of highly volatile trading days with price activity around the key technical area of $2,455 – $2,448.
Although gold has strong downward corrections at times, in terms of the overall technical chart, it still has the main prospect of price increase. With the price channel as the main trend and main support from the EMA 21.
The fact that gold keeps its price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level allows it to continue to increase with a short-term target of around 2,471USD, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci extension.
As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 21 EMA, its technical outlook remains bullish, while the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached overbought levels and is above 50 indicating There is still a lot of room for price increases ahead.
Note: From 2023 until now, gold has had huge fluctuations because traders must always be ready for trading sessions with large amplitudes.
Unlike previous years, when 2-3% trading days were very rare and it took a lot of time for gold to fluctuate like that. But in a market context with many sudden fundamental impacts, the price of gold can completely change 2-3% in just a few hours.
The best advice is just to be patient and look for solid positions and strictly manage the trade size relative to the trading account.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish with notable levels listed below.
Support: 2,448 – 2,426USD
Resistance: 2,471USD
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment
What a time to be alive. Panic selling and now panic buying. Many markets are close to completely reversing the move from last week and Monday. For bulls to just slice through the bear trend line and every technical resistance there was, is something you will not see often on a daily chart. You can’t be anything but max bullish, since every small dip is bought. Until that stops and no one knows when, you have to look for longs.
tl;dr
Indexes - As mentioned above. Look for longs until we start making lower lows again and breaking 1h 20ema. SP500 made almost 9% in 8 days. If you are nerdy, go find other examples of something like that happening, after a equal move down before. Truly astonishing.
dax futures
comment: Bears lost and bulls got a give up bar today. Complete meltup and can’t be anything but max bullish going into tomorrow. So far dax respect no resistance and you can’t expect it to start tomorrow. Everything can happen, so a reversal is never out of the question but it’s not the probable thing for tomorrow. Obvious target above is now the August high at 18633.
current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend (very very low chance this is still that) - more likely we are in a giant trading range 17000 - 19000. We know once we break above 18400
key levels: 17000 - 19000
bull case: Market was going nowhere but the data release at 2:30 pm CET did the trick and we just melted higher until market transitioned into a trading range. No selling pressure anywhere. Bulls want a measured move up to 18500 or higher. 1h 20ema should not be hit or market should not have any close below it.
Invalidation is below 18200.
bear case: Bears gave up today, which most likely means that we get follow through tomorrow and go big green into the weekend. I can’t see bears coming around at 18300. More likely they try 18500 or 18600 but it’s a rough guess. Just do not look for shorts.
Invalidation is above 18700.
short term: max bullish for 18500 or higher.
medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time.
Update: Will update this on the weekend. If we stay below 18700, small chance it could still be valid but if we go above, it’s just one giant trading range for longer.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying 18000 was good.
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Insane price action tbh. Technically lower lows and lower highs but 40 points down and then 30 points up is also something special. I do think the 2519 highs can hold but it’s only reasonable to be neutral while the market oscillates that hard around 2500.
comment: Neutral after today but market is still contracting. Lower highs and higher lows means market is undecided and the triangle is big enough for another 5-10 days inside it. Bears have a reasonable argument that the 2519 high can hold and we are in the upper third of the triangle, shorts are favored.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 2400 - 2536
bull case: Bulls prevented the climactic sell off for 40 points and retraced most of it. They need a higher high above 2510 to retest 2520. 1h 20ema is completely flat. Not more magic to it right now.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears are statistically favored for shorts in the upper third of the trading range. That’s about it for now. They need a 1h close below 2490 to test 2480 again and then hope for follow through down.
Invalidation is above 2522.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 2510 and bearish below 2480 but just for scalps.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 2510 was good for many days now and continues to be so.
#BTCUSDT.P Daily trades// scalp setup LONG X5# hello TRADERS , hope you’re doing well
This our scalp setup for today no further analyses of the entry since this position is lower-timeframe Based
######### POSITION SETUP ########
recommended leverage: X5
ENTRY POINT :58300
SL:57672
TP:59829
### Not financial advice disclaimer ###
#You can use leverage at your own responsability and according to your risk management strategy
## remember to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research. always, trade with caution
## Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions
Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis
#Make sure you follow and activate the notification to catch the move instantly
If you have any questions, or any Coin to analyse you can write them in the comments section below.
#####We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC)
revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the functioning of the most powerful HIGH frequency trading algorithms
very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps of straight to the target
Join US!!
********* WAKE-UP NEO =) follow the white rabbit********
GOLD recovers after adjustment by CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after a slight decline when the latest US CPI report dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply next month.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report Wednesday saying the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year in July. Economists surveyed previously expected the index to increase 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year. Excluding food and energy costs, U.S. core CPI in July rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-over-year, both in line with expectations. .
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "Fed Tracker" shows that the market now expects a 35% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, compared with a 50% chance before the data release. US CPI data.
However, a rate cut in September is a certainty; Current data shows that the Federal Reserve initially only intended to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which has disappointed markets where expectations for a 50 basis point cut were previously higher. Cutting interest rates will more or less bring support to gold prices when the USD loses important support from the high interest rate environment.
On the other hand, the geopolitical situation still has many potential risks and gold is always a safe haven asset when geopolitical developments become complicated.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, although gold has corrected downwards before, maintaining price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension is a positive signal for the short-term uptrend.
In the immediate future, gold will be limited by the technical level of 2,455 USD noted by readers in yesterday's edition and once gold breaks this level, it has the potential to increase further to the target level then around. Fibonacci extension level 0.618%.
In a negative case, gold could be sold below the $2,426 technical level if support at $2,448 is broken below. So traders who buy gold should be prepared for this scenario, but the main trend will still be bullish because 2,426USD is also the confluence of Fibonacci 0.382% and EMA21.
As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, its technical outlook remains bullish with notable positions listed below.
Support: 2,448 – 2,426USD
Resistance: 2,471USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2461 - 2459
⚰️SL: 2465
⬆️TP1: 2454
⬆️TP2: 2449
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426
⚰️SL: 2420
⬆️TP1: 2431
⬆️TP2: 2436
BTC to 34,200 - But that’s not the bottom I anticipate Bitcoin to drop a correction sequence - 34,500 level as a first low
From here, we should watch for a major resistance to hold around 43,000 - this indicates a further drop to the 10,000 level
If Bitcoin drops at speed we know why - DXY is seeing a major breakdown and bearish retest. This indicates an extended 1-2 year bull market - prior to which to market has interest in recollecting liquidity at these ultra lows
This is my take on the market and has been for months. I expect this to happen in the short term timespan
2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Another grind higher and most markets are at big round numbers and near their daily 20ema. Tomorrow one side will give and I have no opinion who will win this. I think it’s absolutely 50/50.
dax futures
comment: Expanding triangle nested inside the bull wedge right under 18000. Bears are in do or die mode at this price and at least showed some selling pressure today but everything is bought. Until we see consecutive bigger bear bars below 17900, all is bullish. Bulls need a strong breakout above 18000 but the daily 20ema is at 18046 and that will be the biggest resistance so far.
current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend
key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is 17700 - 18000
bull case: Bulls refuse to let the market go down and yet today closed again almost exactly at the opening price. The EU session is absolutely not buying this rally and yet we grind higher. Bulls tried to get a decent close above 17970 today but failed miserably. I have no imagination how they could strongly break above 18000 but since we are right under it, it is a real possibility. Bulls only target left for now is a daily close above the daily ema which is at 18050ish. If they achieve that, we are probably free to melt to 18300.
Invalidation is below 17850.
bear case: Bears are trying but they are not doing enough. Since the daily volume is atrocious, I do think many traders are sidelined and waiting rather than buying the dip. Will see tomorrow and Friday on where we close this week. Bears have their do or die moment again at 18000. Either reverse or give up and let the bear gap close to 18200. I don’t have any reasonable arguments for the bears on why we would suddenly trade below 17800 again. For now they are not doing enough.
Invalidation is above 18050.
short term: Neutral until breakout to either side. Bullish above 18050 and bearish below 17850.
medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying 17900 and selling 17970. Trading range price action. Buy low, sell high and scalp.
#BTCUSDT.P Daily trades//Bitcoin scalp setup X10# hello TRADERS , hope you’re doing well
here is a wonderful scalp entry
BTC just reached an high OB short, the correction was realy deep wich represents an amazing opportunity
**** this position is lower-timeframe Based
######### POSITION SETUP ########
recommended leverage: X10
ENTRY POINT :61308
SL:61552
TP:59675
### Not financial advice disclaimer ###
#You can use leverage at your own responsability and according to your risk management strategy
## remember to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research. always, trade with caution
## Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions
Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis
#Make sure you follow and activate the notification to catch the move instantly
If you have any questions, or any Coin to analyse you can write them in the comments section below.
#####We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC)
revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the functioning of the most powerful HIGH frequency trading algorithms
very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps of straight to the target
Join US!!
********* WAKE-UP NEO =) follow the white rabbit********
DXYSELL on the theory markets ranges 70% of the time, and SELL on the theory markets retraces half of the previous leg 90% of the time.
I would get in now.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Time For Pullback
WTI Oil may pull back from a recently broken
daily structure resistance that turned into a support now.
As a confirmation, I see a double bottom pattern on an hourly time frame.
I think that the price can bounce to 79.25 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Ready, focus on CPI data this trading dayThe US dollar and US bond yields rose slightly after US producer price data reinforced hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, while gold prices hovered near highs all-time record set in July.
OANDA:XAUUSD attracted some profit-taking as it approached monthly highs tested earlier on Tuesday and pared Monday's sharp gain of more than 1%.
Overall positive sentiment in equity markets has dampened demand for traditional safe-haven assets and weighed on precious metals amid a market focus on closely watched inflation data. of America.
In terms of the fundamental picture, gold still has a lot of support to become a top priority
Investors remain concerned about the possibility of broader conflict in the Middle East and the impact of the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In addition, the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will no longer support the US Dollar (USD) and will act as a favorable tailwind for gold prices.
Data released Tuesday showed U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in July, suggesting inflation continued to slow.
Traders now await US consumer price index (CPI) data for July today (Wednesday) and retail sales data due (Thursday) for further impetus to the move. The next policy stance of the US central bank.
Today (Wednesday), investors will receive more important US consumer price index (CPI) data. Markets generally expect that if inflation continues to show signs of slowing, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance.
Surveys show that the annual US CPI increase in July is expected to remain at 3.0%. Annual core CPI growth is expected to slow to 3.2% from 3.3% last month.
If the CPI data is lower than expected, this will further pave the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and support gold prices.
On the geopolitical side
According to sources from Reuters, Iranian officials said: Only a ceasefire in Gaza can delay retaliation
Three senior Iranian officials said that only a ceasefire in Gaza during negotiations expected to take place this week will prevent Iran from retaliating against Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its territory, Reuters reported. news on Wednesday.
A senior Iranian security official, said Iran would launch a direct attack with allies such as Hezbollah if the Gaza talks fail or if Iran believes Israel is delaying the talks. .
Over the weekend, Hamas expressed doubts whether ceasefire negotiations could continue. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months but have failed to reach a final ceasefire agreement.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After gold decreased and corrected from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension towards 2,455 USD, as noted by readers in yesterday's edition, it has now recovered slightly and lost the corrective downward momentum.
In the short, medium and long term, the technical structure as well as the trend is still an uptrend. With gold breaking above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will open a new uptrend. With a short-term target at 2,484 USD (all-time high) and more than the original price of 2,500 – 2,505 USD.
As long as gold remains above the $2,455 – $2,448 area, it will still have a bullish short-term technical outlook, and the main trend is noticed by the price channel and the main support is noticed by the EMA21.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still bullish as the Relative Strength Index is still a long way from reaching the oversold area, showing that there is still room for growth ahead. And the notable prices will be listed again as follows.
Support: 2,455 – 2,448USD
Resistance: 2,471 – 2,484 – 2,500USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499
⚰️SL: 2505
⬆️TP1: 2494
⬆️TP2: 2489
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426
⚰️SL: 2420
⬆️TP1: 2431
⬆️TP2: 2436
2024-08-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - My bearish bias got obliterated today. While dax is still 100 points below the daily 20ema, sp500 and nasdaq closed above theirs. Overall much stronger buying than expected and what bears should have allowed imo. Maybe it was front running CPI or a solid short squeeze, it does not matter. All patterns allow for some over-/undershoot so bears could technically still sell off again and we have seen the highs for this pullback but that’s as low probability as it gets. More likely for sp500 is a retest of 5000, if bulls want it bad tomorrow and CPI probably has to be cold as well. Today’s US close was bullish af and we can’t expect anything but more bear pain tomorrow. Anything below 5400 would be a huge surprise again.
dax futures
comment: Not much new stuff to tell you. The wedge bear flag is alive but market is still below the daily ema. Bulls want 18000 and bears have to keep the gap to 18200 open or this bear trend loses much of it’s strength. Play the bear flag as seen in my weekly post, until clearly broken. Bears need a huge surprise tomorrow. Can’t be anything but bullish after today’s price action.
current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend
key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 18000
bull case: Bulls closed the us session at the highs and above 17900, which was previous resistance. They want the strong momentum going for 18000 tomorrow. For that they should keep it above 17850 or bears see it as a failed breakout and want to trade down to 17740 again. Bulls are in control.
Invalidation is below 17850.
bear case: Bears see the EU open and close which were 10 points apart. They need to stall this during the Globex session and generate huge selling pressure to keep this below 17900 again. If they fail, 18000 is almost a given. Most likely is that we see sideways movement at the highs before the US cpi release and depending on that, big up or big down but I have no idea how market will interpret the number to either side, so I will be flat as always and wait for a breakout and follow through.
Invalidation is above 17950.
short term: Neutral until a decent breakout out of the wedge bear flag. Bear case was hit hard today. If we stay at the highs and cpi is low, most likely much much more upside again.
medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time.
current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940 Update: -136 on the short. Flat again.
trade of the day: Decent selling to a new weekly low from the open and selling bar 31 was reasonable. Stop had to be new high of the day. Could you have bought bar 41,42 or 43? I don’t think so. Huge selling and the first 3 bull bars forming a low 1. Buying that is usually low probability. Getting out of shorts above bar 42 was good though. Buying 47 was good because the low 2 did not trigger and bar 47 was way to strong for bear comfort. Market then never had a 15m close below the 15m ema again.
2024-08-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bears showed signs of life, rejecting 80 with decent selling. Still an inside bar to Monday and bulls bought it at the bull trend line. Below 78 bears start hoping again, but it’s more reasonable to expect more upside. At the very least a retest of 80 and if bears are strong, they try to keep that resistance.
comment: Expected pullback by the bears and bulls bought the bull trend line. Everything in order so far, retest of 80 is expected. If bulls are strong, we will break above for 81 or 82. Below 77.6 bears could get hopeful and again but I doubt it. Daily ema is at 77.2, so that would be their first target.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 77 - 82
bull case: Bulls tried twice at 80.15 and then mostly stepped aside after bears increased the selling pressure on bar 37/38. They bought the bull trend line and want a retest of 80 from here. If they fail to keep it above the bull trend line and 77.6, they risk that 80 was a lower high and bears might try to sell down to 72 again. Since Monday was so strong, more upside is the higher probability outcome over the next days.
Invalidation is below 78.6.
bear case: Bears generated decent selling pressure and retest the bull trend line. I don’t think they want to fight hard for 79 and will try to keep it below 80 again. If they would manage to break below the bull trend line, their next target would be the daily ema at 77.2.
Invalidation is above 79.
short term: Bullish above 78.8 for retest of 80. Bearish below 77.6 for more downside.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Sell below bar 37. Can take most off at the double bottom bar 50 + 54 and exit runner once the market reached the bull trend line and refused to trade below it.
GOLD fell slightly, but the target is the all-time highOn the Asian market on Tuesday (August 13), gold was delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD A slight decrease after a pressure increase close to the all-time peak is the price increase target sent to readers recently. Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East have fueled safe-haven buying, with gold now aiming for $2,500 an ounce once its all-time peak is surpassed.
Gold jumped amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to delay any more interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time at its upcoming September meeting, possibly by 50 basis points.
Gold started the new week positively in the context of slowing demand for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East are boosting gold demand. Western countries warn that Iran could launch an attack on Israel, which would reduce the possibility of a ceasefire.
The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Israel placed its military on high alert Monday after learning of preparations by Iran and the militant group Hezbollah.
The Wall Street Journal said: "Israel put its military on high alert for the first time this month after witnessing Iran and Hezbollah preparing to launch attacks. Israel does not know whether an attack is imminent." happening or not but they are taking action".
Israeli military spokesman Hagari issued a statement Monday evening local time, saying that the Israeli military is “Closely monitoring developments in the region, especially the activities of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanon, and prepare defenses to respond to attacks.”
Rising tensions in the Middle East have also created some safe-haven demand, and gold has always been a top choice for traditional haven demand. As we have sent to readers throughout recent publications, gold is receiving active support by the two most important fundamental factors:
- On the one hand, the USD has less attractive prospects when the Fed is very close to its first interest rate cut, and the market also has many speculations that the Fed will have more cuts this year. . The cutting cycle begins, the USD's correlation with gold weakens and this is an important driving force supporting gold prices.
- On the other hand, gold always reacts positively to market risks, especially geopolitical risks that always create surprises that cause gold prices to skyrocket.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
For the time being, gold is limited by its all-time high and also the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension.
However, the gold price has all the technical conditions for a bullish outlook with the main trend being noticed by the trend price channel, the main support is also noticed by the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the short to medium term technical outlook remains bullish, while the RSI crosses above 50 and remains bullish but has not yet reached the overbought, showing that there is still plenty of room for price increases ahead.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bullish with notable levels listed below.
Support: 2,450 – 2,448USD
Resistance: 2,477 – 2,484USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499
⚰️SL: 2505
⬆️TP1: 2494
⬆️TP2: 2489
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426
⚰️SL: 2420
⬆️TP1: 2431
⬆️TP2: 2436
Oil crushing it's slippery slope NYMEX:MCL1!
After nearly a month of selling, oil seems to be taking back buyer's momentum that first started on July 17th, 2024 and ended on August 6th, 2024. When the creation of the "W" formed shortly after hitting a 10 min supply area, this signaled the last moments of Oil's sell trend. As we go into this week, we see that oil is still coming in hot to take back supply area's that it created on the 1hr timeframe, but it's due for a pullback. Depending on after market movements, we can possibly see Oil start to pullback to continue making buy structure to the upside. Oil has a good possibility to make it back to the areas of 83.50 and 84.50. Since in current time right now as I'm typing this, Oil has already broken 3 LH's (lower high) that were created between July 22nd, 2024 and August 1st, 2024. We can see pullbacks in the range of 78.84 and 77.12 to potentially see continuation of buying movements. Within this outlook, my current analysis is buyers market until price shows other signs.
2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - All went mostly sideways and today had many scalp opportunities in both directions since support and resistance were visible early and respected through the session. If you are not comfortable with those trading days, practice on demo account. These days are common and they can be your bread & butter in between big swings.
dax futures
comment: Bull wedge broken through sideways movement. Market is in total balance around 17780 and we can only go absolutely neutral into tomorrow. Bulls need a strong breakout above 17850 and then 17900, if they want 18000 again and I can’t see this happening without a really low ppi print. Same argument for the bears, if needs to be hot for this to drop below 17700.
current market cycle: bear flag inside the bear trend
key levels: 17100 - 17900 - smaller tf range is probably 17700 - 17900
bull case: Only thing bulls had going for them today is that they prevented the market going below 17700 but nothing else. They broke outside the wedge bear flag and are risking a breakdown below tomorrow. Their last hope is a soft ppi print tomorrow and maybe the lower bear flag trend line holding (around 17700 right now).
Invalidation is below 17700.
bear case: Bears printed two consecutive bear doji’s on the daily chart and achieved their main goal today by keeping the market below 18000. Their big bear case would be seriously hurt if bulls can get above the big round number again. Bears now want the wedge bear flag to break down and trade back to 17300 and below. Not more magic to it. You should not make stuff up after the market went mostly sideways. If you want more analysis of this, please read my weekly update.
Invalidation is above 18020.
short term: Neutral until a decent breakout below the wedge bear flag but then full bear mode again.
medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time.
current swing trade: Small short from 17808. SL 17940
trade of the day: Short bar 9 while it formed. Was better visible on the 15m tf. Big resistance on round number 17900 and it had a decent signal bar before. Question is, could you have held through the pullback from bar 10 to 12? Today was a ranging day and scalping both directions on clear support was much easier to catch.
2024-08-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - Huge bull breakout on low volume. Bulls went above 2500 with ease and next target is a higher high again above 2522. As of now it’s still a triangle and if bears appear tomorrow, odds favor a trade back down. You can’t get bullish above 2500 other than scalps.
comment: Clear breakout above the previous channel and a decent channel upwards. Market could not close below the 15m 20ema since bar 23. On the daily chart we are near the upper resistance of the triangle and if bears come around tomorrow, r:r clearly favors them to trade back below 2450 again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2400 - 2536
bull case: Bulls did not meet much resistance by the bears today and we had a bull trend day on low volume. I take those with caution. Bulls next target is a higher high above 2522 and then a retest of the ath at 2536. If they can manage 2522, the ath could fall probably without much resistance and if we see a volume increase, we could potentially go much higher but that’s very low probability, given that 2500 was rejected so many times now on the weekly/monthly chart.
Invalidation is below 2490.
bear case: Bears stepped aside enough today but need to build much stronger selling pressure now to keep this also a lower high and stay inside the triangle. Will be interesting tomorrow. I do think odds favor them to trade back down but market will probably need either sideways movement above 2500 or a very strong sell signal like the last 2 sell offs above 2500. Bears first target is a close below the 15m 20ema and then trading below the 1h 20ema. Then they can start breaking bull trend lines. I do think much is dependent on the ppi print tomorrow and how most traders interpret it.
Invalidation is above 2522.
short term: Neutral above 2500. No interest in buying this at the highs. Only a very strong break above 2536 could change that. Waiting for bears to come around and if they can reverse this.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 21 + 18 or long since bar 22 or 23. Double bottom was almost perfect and had 5 consecutive 1h bull bars following it.
Ready for a new trading week with CPI data in focusOANDA:XAUUSD closed slightly down last week, but a recovery over the past two trading days has helped gold prices narrow their losses this week.
Investors will receive US CPI and retail sales data next week, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. In addition, developments in the Middle East are also the focus of investors' attention.
Yesterday's US unemployment claims data eased fears of a recession and boosted gold prices. Additionally, Federal Reserve commentary this week also supports the view that an interest rate cut may be imminent.
After a volatile week, traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in an unusually aggressive way have also weakened. Globally, risk appetite also gradually recovered as the week progressed, tempered by demand for gold, considered a top safe-haven asset.
However, Fed policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation has cooled enough to allow interest rate cuts. They will decide the size and timing of interest rate cuts based on economic data rather than stock market turmoil.
A big storm is coming, the US CPI will be announced this week as the market focus
This week's economic calendar will release US inflation data for July. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in July, while core CPI , excluding fluctuating food and energy prices, will also increase 0.2% month-on-month. On an annual basis, the headline CPI inflation rate is expected to moderate to 2.9% from 3% in June.
If CPI rises higher than expected compared to last month, investors can reassess the possibility of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September and help the Dollar strengthen and of course this will be the immediate reaction. immediately because it is expected to decrease.
On the other hand, if the data meets or misses market expectations, it could put pressure on the US Dollar, opening the door for another bullish wave for gold.
On Thursday, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for July. US retail sales are expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month in July after flat change in June.
Significant growth in retail sales could ease fears of a US recession and weigh on gold by supporting the dollar, while negative data would have the opposite effect.
CME's "Fed Watch Tool" shows that the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September to be 49%.
It is also important to note that in addition to economic data being the focus of attention, readers, investors, and traders also need to pay attention to geopolitical developments. In the current context, focus should be on the situation in the Middle East as signs of escalation continuously appear in the market. Information will be updated with readers through short comments or daily publications.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After receiving support from the key technical area for the uptrend that readers noticed throughout the publication over the past week, the confluence area of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the lower edge of the price channel and the The $2,378 technical has pushed gold to achieve its near-term upside target at $2,437.
Temporarily, gold's upside momentum is limited at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, price point of $2,437, but it has also achieved full bullish conditions. With the closest support currently noticed by the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, as long as gold remains above the EMA21 the near-term bullish outlook prevails.
On the other hand, once gold breaks $2,437 it will continue towards an all-time high with no significant technical resistance beyond this level ahead.
All technical and fundamental conditions are supportive of price increases, so cases expecting a correction should be opened with very short-term positions.
This week's market is expected to have more complex fluctuations from macro data, and the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price points.
Support: 2,408 – 2,400USD
Resistance: 2,437 – 2,484USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2443 - 2441
⚰️SL: 2447
⬆️TP1: 2436
⬆️TP2: 2431
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2404 - 2406
⚰️SL: 2400
⬆️TP1: 2411
⬆️TP2: 2416
