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#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Last weeks update is still worth reading because it was so on point and most prices given are still valid. Bears need to keep it below 5400/5450 and bulls want above so the bulls would have retraced much more than the 50% they currently have. Also neutral going into next week. Quote from last week: bear case: Bears made it clear that this bull trend is over with another huge bull trap. Right now the channel down looks decent enough if we ignore Friday’s tail. Bears could force another drop to 5300 early next week but I think a bounce and more sideways is more reasonable to expect. I am very confident in loading up on shorts on the next pullback and hold until we hit 5000/5100, which will likely happen over the next weeks/months. comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday. current market cycle: Bear trend started with the drop from 5600 down to 5119. The second leg will bring us to or below 5000, where I expect much more sideways movement again. That big round number will probably be fought over for the next weeks until more bad news come around or earnings Q3 will show clear deterioration. key levels: 5000-5500 bull case: Bulls already recovered a bit more than 50% of the 480 point sell off and if they get above 5450, the chances of a bear trap and not a bear trend, are bigger than a continuation of the selling. Bulls want exactly that and Monday/Tuesday will be key for the next impulse. A daily close above the 20ema would also turn the momentum in favor of the bulls again. Their target is 5430 and then a daily close above the daily ema. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: Bears need to step in and keep the market below 5430. That’s it. If they get strong selling again on Monday, I do think that below 5300 most bulls will cover and we see a retest of 5200 and lower. Bears still see this as a pullback in a bear trend and 50-60% is a normal retracement. Invalidation is above 5430. outlook last week: short term : Full bear mode. Pullback is expected and I will load up on shorts. This will go much lower in 2024. → Last Sunday we traded 5376 and now we are at 5370. Market sold off to 5119 so my read was perfect. Down there I wrote “you can’t get bearish at these lows” and the pullback was expected and written of. Hope you made some. short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there. medium-long term: Same as dax. Want to see a break of this bear flag before I calculate new targets and draw a better channel. We will likely see 5000 before end of October. current swing trade: None. Will load again on shorts on Monday/Tuesday if bears appear again. chart update: Added second bear gap, adjusted the possible bear channel and removed all broken bull trend lines.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Bears got follow through but bulls still kept it a higher lower. Best for bears would be to keep it below 2480 or we might as well go to 2510 again. Big triangle on the daily chart and currently exactly at the midpoint of it. Does not get more neutral than this. Quote from last week: comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months. comment : Easy analysis. We are 4 points above last weeks close. We are in a triangle and exactly at the midpoint, again. Market is as neutral as it gets. Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. Either buy low and sell high inside given range or wait for a breakout. current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged key levels: 2400 - 2520 bull case : Bulls bought the dip again and kept it at higher lows. Odds favor a test of 2500 or 2510. It would be very strong by the bulls if they could get above 2522 again. Not more to it currently. Invalidation is below 2400. bear case: Market is neutral around 2470. Bears gave up on Thursday since they only made a higher low and could not get a daily close below 2430. I don’t think many bears want to fight this until we get above 2500 again. If they do, probably not due to technical reasons (by technical I always mean TA - technical analysis) Invalidation is above 2522. outlook last week: short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. → Last Sunday we traded 2469 and now we are at 2473. Perfect outlook. short term: Neutral around 2475. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. Want to see 2500 to look for shorts again. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr wti crude oil: Most interesting currently. Bulls got right to the upper bear channel and the daily 20ema. Bears have a do or die moment here. If they fail, we can rally all the way back up to 80 and if bulls fail, we likely test back down to at least 72. Quote from last week: comment : Bears are in a hurry and hit my lower target of 73 way ahead of time. My bearish targets are met for now and market is at the bottom of the bear channel and hit a bull trend line. If this won’t hold on Monday/Tuesday, we will see 65 in the next 2-3 weeks. I do think Oil is currently a prime example of why it’s important to learn to read charts and not the f*****g news who wants to tell you every week why Oil is going up due to macro event xyz. Only thing mattering next week is how high the pullback will be to see if we stay inside the triangle or break below. On the weekly/monthly chart the triangle pattern is coming to an end and we will likely see a bigger breakout over the next weeks or months. If this coincides with a macro event, well… You read it here first, many months before the event. comment: Pullback right to the bear trend line and daily 20ema. As foretold. You welcome. Right. Bullish targets met and do or die moment for bears. Bear trend line has to hold or we stay inside the big triangle and targets above will be 79 and then 80. Not more magic to it. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) - nested bear trend inside could still be valid if we reverse on Monday key levels: 70-80 bull case: Bulls kept it above 71.5 and bears gave up on Wednesday. Easy so far. Bulls now need a break above the bear channel and a daily close above it to make most bears cover. If they do that, we will likely see a quick move to 80 again. Invalidation is below 75. bear case: Bears need to stay inside the bear channel or the minor bear trend is over. Below 75 I think the odds favor the bears again to trade back to 72 or lower. Given the pattern from the bull trend in June, it’s probably a bit more likely that bears are done for now and we trade back up to 80 but we will find out on Monday. Invalidation is above 78. outlook last week: short term: Neutral and expecting a pullback but need some bull bars first. If market drops below 73, I will scalp short for 70.7 or lower but anything below that is oversold and I’m out. → Last Sunday we traded 73.52 and now we are at 76.84. 70.07 did not get hit but short below 73 was still good for 130 ticks. Pullback after, so another banger of an outlook in Oil. short term: Neutral. Need strong momentum to either side and will join in that direction. Leaning very slightly bullish for a break above 78. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None chart update: Two legged correction was almost perfect to the tick. It’s done for now and I removed it.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD is stable with an uptrendEarly in the Asian trading session on August 9, OANDA:XAUUSD slightly down about 5dollars, currently trading at 2,421USD/oz, equivalent to 0.23% on the day. Gold had earlier rallied on Thursday, supported by solid safe-haven demand and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates sharply in September. Spot gold closed trading on Thursday up sharply at 44.51 USD, equivalent to 1.87%, at 2,427.11 USD/ounce, ending the previous 5 consecutive days of decline. Gold has benefited from speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more sharply than previously estimated. This sentiment was reinforced when the latest macroeconomic data showed that the US economy could face a recession, sparking speculation that interest rates could be cut. 3 times before the end of this year. According to data from CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market sees a 56.5% chance that interest rates will decrease by 50 basis points in September, with a further cut expected in December. Meanwhile, there is about a 43.5% chance that interest rates will be cut by 50 basis points in September. % chance that the Fed will cut 25 basis points. Big news about attacks on Israel Gold's appeal is supported by geopolitical risks that Iran and Lebanon could retaliate against Israel. The latest developments in the Middle East increase geopolitical risks. While market sentiment remains positive, there are concerns about impending retaliation by Iran and Lebanon against Israel. On August 8 local time, Hezbollah in Lebanon announced that it had used Katyusha rockets, heavy artillery shells and guided weapons to attack many Israeli military targets that day. The targets of the attack included the launch pad of Israel's Iron Dome system, the Israeli military barracks in Zarit and the Israeli military base in Kfar Shuba. Israel TV Channel 12 reported that Israel hoped to send a message in this way that Israel was prepared for the conflict to escalate into a full-scale war. Gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic instability. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has recovered rapidly from the key support confluence area noted by readers in previous publications, highlighted by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, the lower edge of the price channel and horizontal support level 2,378USD. Currently, gold's move above the original price of 2,400 USD and EMA21 are positive conditions for an uptrend with the next target at 2,437 USD, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. In case gold breaks above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the target will once again be aimed at the all-time high at $2,484 price point when there is no notable technical resistance ahead. During the day, the trend of gold prices is still bullish and as long as gold remains above 2,400 USD, the short-term technical outlook will continue to be bullish. The prices will be noticed again as follows. Support: 2,416 – 2,400 – 2,385USD Resistance: 2,437 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2444 - 2442 ⚰️SL: 2448 ⬆️TP1: 2437 ⬆️TP2: 2432 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2404 - 2406 ⚰️SL: 2400 ⬆️TP1: 2411 ⬆️TP2: 2416
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls kept the wedge alive which surprised me. Consecutive bull bars on the daily chart now but only a slightly higher high. Odds favor a reversal below 17800 for at least 17600. I think there is a decent chance we puke during the Globex session again. Above 17820 I am probably wrong and the bull breakout could work. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls kept the market above 17450 and got a strong close today. For a bull breakout above this wedge bear flag, they need consecutive bull bars above 17800. If they let the market fall below 17700 again, odds favor the bears for at least 17600 and also after 3 pushes up, bears could get a breakout below. Invalidation is below 17700. bear case: Bears were not strong enough to push below 17450 and then stepped aside once bulls printed consecutive 1h bull bars above the 1h 20ema. They need to reverse under 17800 or many bears will give up until at least 18000 and if the momentum is strong enough tomorrow, this could become a very strong bull trend day. The daily 20ema is at 18150 and the breakout price from the June low is 18148. If bears do not prevent the bulls under 18000, we most likely will hit 18150. Odds still favor the bears to keep the wedge bear flag alive and break below instead of above. Invalidation is above 18020. short term: Full bear mode but have to exit shorts above 18020ish and see how high the pullback can go before new shorts. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update 2024-08-06: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: None. If bears show strength again tomorrow, want to get a short around 17900-18000 for tp 17000. trade of the day: I thought long and hard about why I did not long bar 50 or 52 and my answer is always the same, it was a bad buy, high in the trading range and at previous highs after the market had much two sided trading and odds favored the bears to go lower. Not taking that buy was absolutely fine. If you took it, good for you and I hope you made a lot of money.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-08-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much to add after what I wrote in the tl;dr section. So see below. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2400 - 2500 bull case: Bulls have many patterns going for them right now. Biggest is the triangle on the daily chart which held and odds favor the bulls to retest up to 2510ish. I’d be surprised if we get there but that’s only my personal bias talking. Bulls closed above all ema and above the current trading range. They have all the arguments to trade higher yet the 1h chart today looks pretty weak to me, despite the 1.3% gain. Alternating bull/bear bars on the 1h chart do not scream bullish market. Whenever market is giving mixed signals, I just do not trade it. It’s just not worth my energy. Invalidation is below 2450. bear case: Bears kept the market two sided but it still went up 46 points. Bears see this as a marginally higher high to Tuesday and want to reverse from here. They need to keep it below 2475 or bulls will probably buy the momentum for 2500. Bears do not have that many arguments since bulls closed above all ema and reversed from the bull trend line on the daily chart. Invalidation is above 2475. short term: Neutral around 2465, bullish above 2475 for 2500 and bearish below 2450. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —adjusted 2450 to 2500 current swing trade: none trade of the day: Same argument for not taking the long as in dax. Buying high in a trading range is a bad buy and market went only 6 points higher than Tuesday. Long since Globex open would have been perfect, as it was a perfect double bottom with Wednesday but not my timezone.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
DXY and Bond Yield still limit GOLDAs market expectations of the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies continue to solidify, higher US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields have sent gold into a correction cycle. significantly reduced. However, bets on a US interest rate cut in September continuing to increase as well as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will still be a solid fulcrum for the possibility of gold price increases. US Treasury yields continued the previous day's rise, recording the largest increase since early June and supporting the US Dollar, which weakened the upward momentum and appeal of gold. non-profit. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against six other currencies, rose to 103.1. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. As market concerns about the situation in the Middle East continue to grow, gold will likely continue to show its appeal as a safe haven. US economic data is sparse this week, traders may focus on today's (Thursday) data on initial jobless claims. In other notable news, China's central bank did not buy gold as reserves for the third consecutive month in July, official data released showed on Wednesday. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 26.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 73.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 15.5%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 51.8%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative 100 basis point yield is 32.7%. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still trying to hold above key technical levels in the area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement confluence with the lower edge of the trend channel and the $2,378 horizontal support, after testing resistance at the confluence of Fibonacci 0.38% and Ema21 were noted to readers in previous publications. The fact that gold maintains its performance above the above support confluence area only shows that the bullish trend still exists on the daily technical chart. However, for gold to have enough conditions for a stable uptrend, it needs to bring price activity above the original price level of 2,400 USD and then the target level will be noticed at EMA21, more than 2,437 USD points. price of Fibonacci 0.236%. During the day, gold is still trending up with the price channel as the main trend and notable technical levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,385 – 2,378USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408 – 2,437USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2407 - 2405 ⚰️SL: 2411 ⬆️TP1: 2400 ⬆️TP2: 2395 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365 ⚰️SL: 2359 ⬆️TP1: 2370 ⬆️TP2: 2375
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 350 points up and then 260 points down. Up move was stronger than I thought and I did not trade it but I nailed the down move. The bull wedge is broken and bulls might retest the breakout at 17600 but that could be the high for tomorrow. I still expect the lows to be retested and today printed another nasty reversal bar on the daily chart. I still expect the lows to hold (it can be a lower low but not close below 17000) but only if this JPN carry blowup did not create an event we are already in. If something broke, next logical support is 16500 but the big bull trend line at around 16800 was last touched in 2023-10 and will most likely not break on the next touch. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls tried 4 times to stay above 17600 and the bull wedge broke in the US session today. If bulls fail to keep the market above 17370, the lows will come fast because many bulls will give up below today’s low. Best bulls can hope for is to stay above that price and go sideways. Their first target is a close above the 1h 20ema which is currently around 17580 and the breakout below the bull wedge. If they keep the market neutral long enough tomorrow, we could try 17600 or higher again but as of now that is very low probability. Invalidation is below 17000. bear case: Bears sold off into the US close again and for tomorrow I do not expect another strong up move in the Globex or early EU session. Too many bulls got trapped again and they will probably wait for a retest of 17100 to look for longs again. Bears target is obvious and since they printed 4 strong consecutive 1h bear bars, they are in control of the market again. Invalidation is above 17650. short term: Full bear mode. Bear flag is broken and retest of the lows probably next medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update 2024-08-06: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: None but will probably look for longs around 17100 trade of the day: Long bar 2 since it was a retest of y close and stay above the bull wedge trend line. Could have closed longs at prior weekly high around 17700 or below bar 56. Next best trade was short bar 62 or bar 66. Decent chance we test the lower wedge trend line again after 3 pushes up.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
2024-08-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear flag broke and we on our way to retest the lows. After hours sold off another 22 points so far. If the Globex session is bad enough, we can make new lows but for now I expect them to hold. We are in a very volatile environment and it’s hard to forecast anything. The daily chart shows a clear picture imo. Huge rejections on anything above 5250 but also below 5200. Bears had a climactic sell off and bulls are trying to find the bottom. I think more sideways inside the given range is the most reasonable outlook and everything else a surprise. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls had two very decent legs up today to make 120 points, just to see another huge sell off into the close down to 5200. 5240 is the mid point of the recent trading range at these lows and a magnet for the next pullback. I do think most bulls got reasonably disappointed by the bull trap today and want to look for longs at the lows again, so probably not until we get around 5150. Invalidation is below 5090. bear case: Bears trapped the bulls as my subtitle stated yesterday. They want a retest of 5119 and maybe 5100. I expect the lows to hold but you always have to calculate with market surprises. Only if something broke badly will we see more sellers than buyers below 5120. More reasonable is that we move sideways and get another pullback to > 5300 before another leg down. Bears want the market to stay below the bull wedge breakout 5280 or they risk another test of 5300 and or above. Invalidation is above 5280. short term: Bearish until we retest 5120, then neutral and waiting for bulls to come around for another pullback. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
USDJPY recovers, downtrend conditionsA sharp shift in Japan's monetary policy, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disappointing US jobs data have pressured global markets since last Friday. . The yen's rapid rise began last Wednesday, when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and laid out a plan to gradually taper its bond-buying program. The US dollar fell nearly 5% against the yen last week and fell further on Monday. However, it recovered slightly by 0.09% on Tuesday and continued to recover on Wednesday. USD/JPY is currently trading around 147. There is a reason the yen could give up recent gains as the market may accept expectations of a US interest rate cut, but it will be more difficult to digest expectations of Japan continuing increase interest rates. Tuesday's data showed Japanese households remained cautious and will struggle to boost aggregate demand enough to keep inflation at 2%. Therefore, it will be difficult for the Bank of Japan to fulfill its desire to continue the cycle of increasing interest rates. However, this is only a subjective assessment, because everything from Japan needs additional information from the BOJ to be able to fully evaluate the path. On the weekly chart, OANDA:USDJPY recovered above 146.385 and above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. However, these recovery levels are not enough for USD/JPY to have bullish conditions when the confluence of the trend price channel (a) and the 0.382% Fibonacci level will be the current closest resistance. For USD/JPY to gain further upside it needs to bring price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and then the target level of around 153,760 price points is the confluence of Ema21 and 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Meanwhile, once USD/JPY is sold off again below 144.520 it will continue to move towards 140.401 in the short term. Currently, technical position conditions for USD/JPY remain bearish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 144,992 – 144,520 Resistance: 148,654
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is under pressure as Stocks, DXY, Bond yield increaseOANDA:XAUUSD Right at the opening session (August 7), it decreased by 5Dollar to 2,384USD, equivalent to a decrease of 0.25% on the day, as of the time this article was completed. The strength of the US Dollar and US Treasury bond interest rates are the main reasons leading to the sell-off in gold prices. In addition, the recovery in global equity markets has revived the market's risk appetite, which also affected the safe-haven asset gold. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with attacks by Hezbollah in northern Israel, could support safe-haven gold. U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, as a jump in Japanese stocks helped boost sentiment. The Dow increased 294.39 points, or 0.76%, to 38,997.66 points; Nasdaq index increased 166.77 points, equivalent to 1.03%, to 16,366.85 points; The S&P 500 increased 53.70 points, or 1.04%, to 5,240.03 points. On the European stock front, Germany's DAX30 index closed up 0.08% on Tuesday; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.23% and Europe's Stoxx 50 index closed up 0.08%. The Dxy index, which tracks the strength of the US Dollar, also increased to 103,199, equivalent to an increase of 0.26% on the day, a continued increase from the trading day on August 6. Gold is under pressure partly because bond yields continue to increase, with USD10Y increasing to 3,909, equivalent to an increase of 0.33%, similar to Dxy, it also continued the increase of the previous trading session. However, geopolitical issues remain after Hezbollah launched attacks in northern Israel, Valencia added. An escalation of the conflict could boost gold's outlook and even pave the way for a return to $2,400 an ounce. Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah has launched a series of drone and missile attacks on northern Israel. According to CME's "FedWatch" tool, the market sees a 100% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold returned to test the support level noted by readers in the previous issue. The area is the confluence of the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the horizontal support of 2,378USD and the lower edge of the price channel. The above confluence area is an important support area, because if gold is sold below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will be a negative signal for the uptrend, because this means that the uptrend from the inner price channel The medium term was broken under the same double top pattern that formed. Previously, the fact that gold was operating below EMA21 was a technical disadvantage as the EMA21 level would now become resistance in the short term. However, in terms of trend, gold is currently still trending up because the supporting factors are still working well. During the day, the bullish technical outlook from the price channel will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,385 – 2,378 – 2,362USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,408USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2416 - 2414 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2409 ⬆️TP2: 2404 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2363 - 2365 ⚰️SL: 2359 ⬆️TP1: 2370 ⬆️TP2: 2375
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2024-08-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral between 17300 and 17650. Market is trying to find a bottom in a big trading range. As long as market stays below 17900, it’s max bearish. I expect a slow grind to retest the lows over the next 1-2 days and those lows will most likely hold so we can move much more sideways. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 17100 - 17800 bull case: Bulls got their pullback but only printed an inside bar on the daily chart, which is weak. Their only goal is to get above 17900 and break above the July low and close as much of the gap to 18150 as possible. First target is 17700 and then the Globex high from Monday at 17732. Invalidation is below 17000. bear case: Bears kept the bounce below the 4h 20ema and below the Globex high from Monday. They want this bear flag to be shallow and mostly sideways before another strong leg down. A measured move down would bring us to 15600 but for that to happen in 2024, we would ne an event or nothing but annihilation of earnings next quarter. My head & shoulders target from 3 or 4 weeks ago was missed by less than 100 points on Monday, I consider this to be close enough. Invalidation is above 17900. short term: full bear mode. Target was 17844 and we got 17110. Play the bear flag for now but the lows will be retested. More sideways movement over the next days or weeks. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. Update: 17110 was hit and my bear targets are done for now. We need to form a proper channel and move much more sideways to up before we will get the second big leg down. Measured move target is 15600 but as of now, I can’t see this being hit in 2024, without an event. current swing trade: Closed all shorts for 800+ points. Currently not interested in anything but intraday scalps. trade of the day: Shorting the Globex high double top 17650 after the second big bear bar. That was good for 170 points which was a bit lower than the gap to y close.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Short
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [05 August - 09 August]This week, the international gold price has continuously increased sharply after opening the week at 2,382 USD/oz due to increasing concerns about the US economic recession and the FED's announcement that it would cut interest rates in September. The gold price climbed to 2,477 USD/oz at one point, but then fell to 2,410 USD/oz and closed at 2,442 USD/oz. The US labor market has been deteriorating further, with the economy adding just 114,000 jobs in July, well below economists' forecasts of 176,000, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. More worryingly, the US unemployment rate in July jumped to 4.3%. This has increased expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting without any further promises. The above economic data will be the echo for the recovery of gold prices next week. From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,437 – 2,431 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484 – 2,475USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2501 - 2499⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2505 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2384 - 2386⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2380
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD trend remains positive, data week is lightDue to weaker-than-expected US employment data and market expectations of interest rate cuts, OANDA:XAUUSD increased more than 1% at the beginning of last week's trading session when the market took profit. As tensions in the Middle East lead to increased safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, gold has become more attractive to investors. It is up 2.35% this week, showing an overall uptrend. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the Fed could cut interest rates as early as September if the U.S. economy grows as expected. Gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, with lower interest rates reducing the opportunity cost of holding the asset and making gold attractive. The latest US Department of Labor released jobs data and 114,000 new workers were added in July, less than the 175,000 expected. The previous data was revised down from 206,000 to 179,000. The data also showed the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3% and average hourly earnings fell by a tenth from 0.3% to 0.2%. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets now see a 22% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points on September 18, up from 12% previously. The market shows that the Fed will cut interest rates by 86 basis points at the remaining 3 meetings this year. Tensions in the Middle East increased, demand for gold as a safe haven increased, and Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, leading to further escalation of conflict. Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital after attending the inauguration of the new Iranian president, and both Iranian and Hamas officials blamed Israel for the attack. These developments further support gold prices as investors seek safe haven assets amid uncertainty. In terms of short-term forecasts, gold is expected to maintain its bullish trend, driven by risk aversion and dovish Federal Reserve policies. Geopolitical tensions and weak US economic data will support gold prices, Another piece of data to note is U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing that for the week ending July 30, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts were reduced by 9,535 lots to 188,909 lots; Futures contracts decreased by 9,535 lots to 188,909 lots. Economic data and events to watch out for next week Focusing on the market next week, investors will pay attention to the following important events. Monday: ISM Services PMI: to be released on Monday, will provide the market with more information on the state of the services sector in the US. Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision: will be announced on Tuesday and investors will closely monitor its impact on the global monetary policy environment. Wednesday and Thursday: U.S. Bond Auctions: Wednesday and Thursday's 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions will be closely watched, especially after the strong gains of the bond market this week. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold corrects after approaching target level at all-time peak. Note to readers in previous publications that the only closest resistance level was found technically. However, the profit-taking motivation did not cause gold to correct longer, while the support level at the confluence of EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement pushed gold prices to recover above the 0.236% Fibonacci, which should be considered a positive signal for gold prices. On the daily chart, the near-term target for gold prices will still be highlighted by the all-time high, price point of $2,484. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the trend price channel, its technical outlook remains bullish and notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,431 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484 – 2,452USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2461 - 2459 ⚰️SL: 2465 ⬆️TP1: 2454 ⬆️TP2: 2449 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2494 - 2496 ⚰️SL: 2490 ⬆️TP1: 2401 ⬆️TP2: 2406
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD recovered after a large correctionOANDA:XAUUSD recovered to above the original price of 2,400 USD after suffering a general decline in the market during the bloody trading session on August 5. In general, in terms of basic and technical trends, the uptrend for gold prices is still will prevail. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets and bet that the Federal Reserve now needs to sharply cut interest rates to spur economic growth. In addition, geopolitical developments in the Middle East are showing more and more signs that escalation is also a huge driving force for gold prices. Economic data US services sector activity recovered in July Activity in the U.S. services sector rebounded from a four-year low in July as orders and employment increased, data showed. The services sector expanded again in July, exiting its worst recession in four years, which may help ease fears of a widespread economic slowdown. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) comprehensive services industry index rose 2.6 points to 51.4, above 50, the index's key boundary. The July data was slightly higher than the average forecast of economists surveyed. The index was boosted by a rebound in services employment, orders and business activity, showing modest growth in the services sector, the economy's biggest pillar. Previously, US Department of Labor data released on Friday showed the unemployment rate rose to a nearly three-year high of 4.3% and job growth slowed significantly. The jobs report increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will make more aggressive interest rate cuts before the end of the year. According to CME's FedWatch tool, a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is certainly imminent. The data also showed that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut lending rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Political geography Gold prices remain significantly supported by rising geopolitical tensions and growing concerns about a global economic slowdown. The conflict in the Middle East appears to have widened, with Iran-backed Hezbollah saying it fired multiple missiles at Israel on Saturday in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in Tehran aimed at assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. In terms of fundamentals, geopolitical tensions have increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered significantly after suffering a large correction yesterday with another retest of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, keeping price activity above the $2,400 raw price is a positive signal for gold prices and staying above EMA21 opens up the prospect of a more extended upside with a short-term target around 2,431 – 2,437 USD. Looking at the overall picture, the structure for the uptrend of gold prices has not been affected with the price channel being the main trend in the medium term. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bullish with notable price levels listed below. Support: 2,408 – 2,400 – 2,385USD Resistance: 2,431 – 2,437USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2426 - 2424 ⚰️SL: 2430 ⬆️TP1: 2419 ⬆️TP2: 2414 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2394 - 2396 ⚰️SL: 2390 ⬆️TP1: 2401 ⬆️TP2: 2406
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD heads to era levels, pay special attention to NFPOANDA:XAUUSD continues to trade with an uptrend, heading towards all-time levels as markets eye upcoming US nonfarm payrolls data, to be released today (Friday) this week. FED Although the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Wednesday, Chairman Jerome Powell said rates could be cut in September if the US economy grows as expected. Recent economic data supports interest rate cuts, but Fed officials remain skeptical about the reflation process and say they want to see more data. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%. As an effective traditional economic and geopolitical risk hedge, gold typically performs well and finds support in low interest rate environments. In terms of economic data US ISM manufacturing data fell for a fourth straight month and initial jobless claims rose last week, again raising concerns that the US economy could fall into recession . According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, initial jobless claims rose from 14,000 to 249,000 in the week ended July 27. The survey forecast was for 236,000. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Thursday that the ISM manufacturing index fell 1.7 to 46.8 in July. A reading below 50 indicates industry activity is contracting. The latest data was weaker than all surveys expected. Traders now await Friday's US jobs report for further direction on Fed policy. It is expected that the US will create 175,000 new jobs in July and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. If non-farm data falls short of expectations, the US dollar could suffer, thereby stimulating further gold price increases. Political geography According to many sources, Iran may attack Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this week. The United States is preparing for an Iranian attack on Israel in the coming days. We need to remember the time in 2019 when Iran also attacked Israel in retaliation for the assassination of the leader of Iran's special forces, and at this time gold increased significantly. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian political and military officials said Iran would retaliate for Haniyeh's assassination. A senior Israeli official said the Israeli intelligence community predicted Iran would launch a large-scale missile attack on Israel. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold fell and received support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement area it recovered and continued the main uptrend approaching all-time levels. Note to readers in yesterday's edition. In the short term, there is no more notable level of technical resistance than the all-time high at $2,484, while the closest support is at $2,437 and the main trend is an uptrend highlighted by the channel. price and moving average EMA21. In addition, the relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up, showing that the momentum and room for price increases are still wide. As long as gold remains above $2,437, it still has short-term upside prospects. Meanwhile, even if sold below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the downward momentum will still be limited by the confluence of support from EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.382%. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish with notable technical levels listed as follows. Support: 2,437 – 2,431USD Resistance: 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2476 - 2474 ⚰️SL: 2480 ⬆️TP1: 2469 ⬆️TP2: 2464 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2420 - 2422 ⚰️SL: 2416 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2432
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD price slipped because investors took profitsOANDA:XAUUSD decreased during the trading session on Friday (August 2), because investors took profits after this precious metal had a sharp increase in price during the trading session. Analysts believe that gold prices may soon exceed 2,500 USD/oz because the risk of a US economic recession may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates more strongly than expected. However, gold prices have risen 1.8% this week as demand for hedging increases amid heating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and investor expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates next year. September - a move that will create a more favorable environment for gold prices. According to the latest statistics, the US job market decelerated stronger than expected and the unemployment rate increased to the highest level since October 2021. The nonfarm payrolls report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of new jobs in the month was 179,000 jobs, compared to the number of 185,000 new jobs that economists reported in a survey by the firm. Dow Jones news. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from 4.1% previously. The report caused US Treasury bond prices to increase sharply while the USD exchange rate plummeted, creating support for gold prices, helping this precious metal avoid the risk of a deep decline due to profit-taking pressure. Along with that, the USD dropped sharply, with the Dollar Index falling 1.15%, closing the week at 103.22 points. This is the lowest level of this index since March. All week, the Dollar Index decreased 1.05%. This week, an important driving force for gold prices was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's announcement on Wednesday that interest rates could be cut as soon as September if the US economy performed as expected. With the recently released gloomy employment report, many experts believe that the Fed may have to reduce interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at the September meeting, instead of 0.25 percentage points.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2024-08-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. Since today was a very special day again, I need to see futures opening later and the Asia session in the morning to give more updates. So only a short one on sp500 and will write more tomorrow morning. comment: 3 days, -8%. This is either due to an event happening right now or a very climactic but short lived selling, which could produce a huge bounce upwards. 5000/5100 were my targets which I was not sure about if we could get there in 2024 but getting there in a couple of days is something special. I do not know the reasons for the selloff and neither do you or anyone else. Don’t fool yourself because random bro on twitter said it’s because of the jpn carry trade or whatever. All we know is that people are running for the exits and we almost had the first limit down day since covid. current market cycle: Bear trend key levels: 5000 - 5300 bull case: Bulls stopped the selling at 5119, which was in the area of the May low. And in between my lower target of 5200 and the most obvious big support 5000. If this is not an event where all technicals are out of the window, a pullback will happen, that’s the nature of markets. Bulls printed a textbook inverted head & shoulders and the target for that is 5420. The 50% pb from the ath to recent low is 5418. I am not saying that we get there tomorrow but bear trends have violent pullbacks and it’s absolutely possible to see that price again. For now bulls should be happy with holding above 5200 and going sideways. Invalidation is below 5100. bear case: Bears produced 3 extremely climactic bear bars on the daily chart and that is unsustainable. Market needs a pullback and everyone knows it. Market touched the 1h 20ema twice today for the first time since Thursday. The bear wedge already broke and market is trying to find a bottom. If bears are strong and this selling is the end of it all, any pullback will be violently sold again and market will probably not see 5350 or higher again. If this is not the end all be all, we get a healthy pullback to form a proper channel, which will lead us to 5000 over the next weeks. That is the reasonable and my preferred path forward. If bears go full panic mode, we see 5000 today and probably a bit lower just to get all stops below, before a bounce. This was most likely leg 2 (W3) of this current bear trend. Invalidation is above 5460. short term: Can’t be bearish at these lows. 5100/5200 will most likely hold and we trade in the given range for some time or see a bigger pullback to 5400ish. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Can futures predict market movements?I was wondering if futures can predict market movement. Here's a monthly chart showing two values: * green: the difference between ES futures and SPX, divided by SPX to keep it proportional in a rising market * orange: SPX itself It shows: 1. Futures fluctuate over the 3-month cycle 2. SPX declines after peaks in the difference between ES futures and SPX - see 2001, 2008, 2018. Over-optimism? 3. But there was no peak before the decline in 2022 !? 4. Bulls want to see the difference well below zero - see 2003-04, 2001-17 and 2020-22 5. In 2023 the difference between ES futures and SPX is back to levels seen in 2000 and 2007, which preceded drops in SPX of around 46% and 52% Not trading advice. Do you own research
SP:SPX
by lavoriamo
GOLD increased strongly after FOMC, pay attention to NFPAfter the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, OANDA:XAUUSD surged toward all-time highs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that US jobs data will begin to play an important role in setting monetary policy. Economic data U.S. economic data showed private hiring slowed in July, according to ADP's latest jobs change report. Additionally, building permits improved after a decline in May, while the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which the Fed uses to measure wage inflation pressures, fell in the second quarter. year 2024. FOMC The Federal Reserve once again decided to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. This is the 8th consecutive meeting of the Federal Reserve without adjusting interest rates. Powell said deflation has “extended” and noted downside risks to the labor market. “We think the current labor market is unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure,” Powell added, saying that if they see a decline in the job market, “we will respond.” Following these comments, Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report will be a key link in the Fed's move to focus more on employment. After Powell's speech, market participants were pricing in a 70 basis point (bps) interest rate cut later this year. Fed policy statement In their monetary policy statement, Fed officials noted that "The Committee believes it would be inappropriate to lower the target range until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving toward 2% sustainably and the risks associated with dual mandates have become more balanced.” Traders should pay special attention to the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) data for July and nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which will be released on Thursday and Friday. Geopolitical risks escalate Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the New York Times reported on Wednesday that three Iranian officials said Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered Iran to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the leader's murder. Hamas Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran and Hamas accused Israel of carrying out the assassination. The report indicates that three Iranian officials, including two members of the Revolutionary Guard, said Khamenei issued the order at an emergency meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council this morning. Wednesday. Not long ago, Iran announced that Haniyeh had been killed. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold increased significantly, reaching the target level at 2,437 USD and breaking this level, the gold price is now fully qualified to move towards an all-time peak. The current correction cycle has technically ended with the closest support for gold prices being noticed at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point. The main trend is noticed with the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as gold remains above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, it still has enough room to rise in the short term with the target level being an all-time high. Meanwhile, even if gold corrects below $2,437, the decline will be limited by the confluence of the Fibonacci 0.382% and EMA21. During the day, gold's technical outlook is bullish with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,437 – 2,408USD Resistance: 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2475 - 2473 ⚰️SL: 2479 ⬆️TP1: 2468 ⬆️TP2: 2463 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2420 - 2422 ⚰️SL: 2416 ⬆️TP1: 2427 ⬆️TP2: 2432
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
USDJPY continued its upward trajectory on MondayUSDJPY continued its upward trajectory on Monday, consolidating above the 156.00 handle. Should this momentum pick up later in the week, resistance appears at 158.00, followed by 160.00. It's important to exercise caution with any ascent towards these levels, considering the possibility of FX intervention by Japanese authorities to bolster the yen. Such a move could quickly send the pair into a tailspin. Alternatively, if selling pressure resurfaces and prompts the pair to reverse course, initial support is positioned at 154.65. While prices are expected to stabilize around this zone during a pullback, a breakdown could precipitate a swift decline toward 153.15. If weakness persists, attention could turn to trendline support and the 50-day simple moving average near 152.50.
by Xayah_trading
USDJPY is once again approaching the 160 levelJapanese officials recently intervened in the foreign exchange market as the USD/JPY exchange rate approached the 160 level. However, this time the upward movement has been more gradual and less volatile, prompting no action from Japanese officials. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading above 157.00 and has rebounded strongly off the 50-day SMA in early May. The issue of yen weakness is likely to persist due to the significant interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, supporting the carry trade.
by Xayah_trading
1