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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Potential Scenarios For Next Week 🛢️ Crude Oil is consolidating after a strong bullish wave. The price formed a horizontal range on a daily. Next week, wait for a breakout of one of the boundaries of the range for a confirmation. Bearish violation - a daily candle close below a support of the range, will give you a strong bearish signal. A bearish continuation will be expected to 83.0 level then. Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the resistance of the range - a daily candle close above, will push the prices higher to 89.0 level. Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILLong
by VasilyTrader
7
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 08 - April 12]This week, international gold prices continued to increase sharply, from 2,228 USD/oz to 2,330 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,329 USD/oz. There are currently 3 main factors that are causing gold prices to increase sharply beyond expectations. There is the need to buy gold by central banks, the upcoming interest rate cuts by the FED and other central banks around the world, and finally, extremely strong geopolitical tensions on many fronts. battles, including the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. Of the three factors mentioned above, the biggest concern is the significant increase in geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in the Middle East as Iran may retaliate against Israel for the country's suspicion of bombing the University of Israel. Iranian embassy in Syria. This has significantly increased the role of gold as a haven. In addition, the purchase of gold by central banks will also create long-term leverage on gold prices, especially when central banks of the BRICS bloc are stepping up gold purchases to ensure their own payment system. to avoid dependence on the US and the West. In addition, when central banks, especially the FED, begin the process of cutting their basic interest rates, gold prices will also gain momentum. Notably, the US labor market in March unexpectedly grew strongly, with non-farm employment figures (NFP) reaching 303,000 jobs, much higher than Reuters' forecast of about 200,000 jobs. This will give more motivation for the FED to cut interest rates for the first time next June after a long series of interest rate increases. From the beginning of 2024 until now, international gold prices have increased about 17% after surpassing the resistance mark of 2,000 USD/ounce in mid-February. Thus, compared to the above increases, international gold prices will remain There is plenty of room to increase further when the FED cuts interest rates this year. Notably, the strong increase in gold prices often takes place before the FED starts cutting interest rates. March CPI and PPI - important US inflation data, published next week may also have a strong impact on gold prices next week. According to forecasts, US CPI in March will increase by about 0.2%. If this data is as expected, or even increases below 0.3%, it will be positive news for gold prices next week, because this data will prompt the FED's plan to cut interest rates in June. to become more convincing. On the contrary, if March CPI increases to 0.4% or higher, it will be a matter of concern. This makes it possible for the FED to continue delaying its plan to cut interest rates, negatively impacting gold prices next week. 📌Technically, gold price has increased beyond the medium-term price increase channel on the weekly chart, which is a positive signal, showing that the gold price increase in the medium and long term will continue. However, the price has gone quite far from the moving averages, while the RSI... is already in the overbought zone. This poses a risk of profit taking for gold prices in the short term. Accordingly, the important support levels for gold prices next week are at 2,250-2,200-2,100 USD/oz. Meanwhile, the 2,400 USD/oz area will be an important resistance zone. The trading plan for next week will consider the buying watch around 2250, the selling watch around the round resistance mark of 2400.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD approaches $2,356 again, geopolitics, CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD has corrected from all-time highs but still maintains a bullish trend. Gold prices are expected to reach additional record highs in the near future. Tensions in the Middle East pushed gold prices up sharply. Hamas official Ali Baraka said Hamas had rejected Israel's latest ceasefire proposal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a video statement on the evening of April 8, local time, saying: “If the Israeli army wants to completely defeat Hamas, it must enter Rafah, the southernmost point of the Strip Palestinian Gaza, and conduct significant activities, this will happen and will be announced in advance.” Netanyahu also said he had received a detailed report on the negotiations in Cairo and that Israel "is continuously working to achieve its goals, starting with the release of all detainees and winning complete victory over Hamas." Markets are also watching key US inflation data due out this week. Inflation data is expected to provide further guidance on the Fed's interest rate cut roadmap and could be the next driver for gold prices. The US consumer price index (CPI) for March will be released on Wednesday. According to a survey of economists, the US general CPI in March will increase by 0.3% over the previous month, slightly lower than 0.4% in February; US core CPI in March is expected to increase by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Analysis of gold price prospects OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has corrected since approaching the 1% Fibonacci extension at $2,356, which readers noticed in the weekly edition, it has since taken support from area of ​​the 0.786% Fibonacci level and increased again to approach the $2,356 level once again. A position being tested many times means that the effectiveness of that technical position will no longer be much. However, at the present time, the level of 2,356USD still serves as the closest notable resistance level. The main trend of gold price remains unchanged with the main uptrend from all technical indicators. Expecting a downside correction should be targeted in the short term with the nearest support at the $2,311 – $2,300 area, while defending open positions expecting a downside correction should be placed behind the level. 2,356 USD. During the day, the technical outlook of gold prices will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2328 - 2313 - 2303USD Resistance: 2348 - 2354 - 2360USD In recent times, we (Traders) always have to be mentally ready to face major fluctuations in the market, it has become very normal for gold to move 1% to over 2% every working day.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.07 - 04.12Last Week : Last week to start the week we attempted the move under VAL but only had enough selling to break under and come back in which gave us another rotation higher back towards VAH. We needed more supply or stronger sell Volume to come in to attempt a move at the lower Edge. We knew going into the week that we had Supply/Sellers at/over VAH and buyers wouldn't want be paying prices over Value. Move Wednesday RTH hold over VAL and Thursday Globex trapped more buyers on the way to VAH and when buyers ran out everyone rushed for the doors which gave us a nice flush through VAL and once we took out the Support there more volume came in to extend towards the Edge. We did break the Edge and closed under but no stronger sell volume came in overnight and once RTH opened we saw the Edge hold and another rotation from Edge back to VAL. Attempted a push inside Value but this time around we saw sellers Inside Value under the Mean. This Week : This might be a tricky week as many will expect either a continued grind higher after failed break down out of the range or more selling to come in and take us back to the Edge and possibly under. Yes either of these scenarios could happen but we have to be careful because it could be a slow start to the week with no market moving data Monday/Tuesday then Fed Minutes Wednesday and bigger data dropping Thursday. So far the structure is telling us that we have buyers under Value and inside/under HTF Edge which is an important area for any prices under and also telling us that we have trapped more supply inside Value/Mean area of the Range which might not have all sold out yet. To me it means that its very possible to go back to tighter ranges again as price might want to stay around this VAL Over/Under area without making any big moves away from it just yet. We did close Friday inside 5249.75 - 5295.50 range which is what we will need to focus on now until we move out of it and accept in different range. 5249.75 - 44.75 is Key Support for this range but if buyers are trying to get product under value we could be seeing extensions under but watch out for price to keep wanting to come back towards or over it if we do. Extensions away from VAL into the Value could also be met with Supply and might make price keep coming back inside VAL area. It's too early and tricky to really call it right now but last week made big moves and wont be surprised to see smaller balances this week to clean up and start getting ready for next moves which can take time. If this will be the case we will have to see if Mid/End of week will give us clear direction out of this area or if we will continue trading around this Current Range until next week. To attempt moves higher towards VAH we would need to hold over 5279.25 - 75.25 and get through Key Resistance at 5295.50 - 90.25 To attempt moves under VAL towards Edge and under we would need to accept under 5249.75 - 44.75 and get through 5234.25 - 30.25 - 27.50 areas Levels to Watch : Current Range Levels - Key Resistance 5295.50 - 90.25 // Resistance 5279.25 - 75.25 5264.75 - 60.75 Could act as an intrarange mean that could draw the price towards it. 5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support If we accept under Key Support we will look at 5249.75 - 5204 - 5199.75 Range Levels inside 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 15.75 Key Support 5204.25 - 5199.75 If we hold VAL and enough buying comes in go take us back to VAH we again need to be careful of sellers over 90s but if anything levels above would be 5306.50 - 10.50 // 5324.75 - 20.75 and Key Resistance 5341 - 36
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Sanity Check: Channeling Silver's Recent (+ not so recent) MovesChannels are an incredible tool for technical analysis. Today we're going to put them to the test with the recent moves up in silver, as it looks like the precious metal is currently sitting at a decision point that can (still) go either way. MEASURING IMPLICATIONS OF CHANNELS The real power of channeling is greater than just working with a supportive/resistive trend line; there are measuring implications that are often remarkably accurate in forecasting. Once a (valid) channel is broken, tested, and confirmed to have broken, the subsequent move is usually between .5-1.0 the width of the broken channel. You can think of that .5 level as a micro channel within a channel. Depending on this week's close outside of the bullish channel, we can safely say the weight of evidence lies in favor of bullish continuation. If that does indeed materialize, silver could have an incredible run just around the corner, especially as markets continue to price out cuts. **Two partial retraces are circled to illustrate their significance in indicating a faltering channel. Important to note that the first circle (the bearish partial retrace) is only useful in hindsight, as the uppermost channel was not valid at the time.
COMEX_MINI:SIL1!Long
by LamboSoup
Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, April 12th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with bulls and bears battling over the key support at 5191 in the red flag pattern. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Defending the Flag: The red flag pattern with support at 5191 or 5184 remains the key focus. Bulls must defend this zone. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also signal potential for longs. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in highly volatile conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191, ideally with any dips below 5184 quickly reclaimed. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible for a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, stick to level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 12th, 2024 Economic Data & Interest Rates Mortgage rates rise above 7% due to inflation concerns. High-yield savings accounts offer some protection against inflation. Mixed signals on the timing of Fed rate cuts. Earnings & Bank Stocks Big banks report Q1 results, providing insights into the financial sector. Focus on JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Market Outlook & Analysis S&P 500 hits new highs, strong Q1 performance. April historically a bullish month. Corporate profits and analyst ratings in focus. Global Markets Japan's 5-year bond yield surges. Singapore's GDP growth remains modest. Rising concern over global financial fraud and scams. Reminder: The market remains volatile. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
GOLD increased sharply despite rising US bond yieldsThe week ahead presents many ‘high importance’ risk events ranging from US CPI data to central bank decisions in Canada, New Zealand and the European Union. The FOMC minutes of the March meeting will also provide more insight on Fed thinking, although, the trend of hotter US data may diminish the impact of what was discussed during the March meeting. TVC:DXY IN FOCUS AHEAD OF CPI DATA, NFP BOOST PROVED SHORT-LIVED Friday’s hotter-than-expected jobs data for March initially sent the dollar higher but the catalyst failed to hold into the close. US CPI data will definitely draw a huge focus from the market due to the stubborn PCE figures and generally robust US data that may delay rate cuts even further. THE RISK OF A BROADER CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST TRIGGERED OANDA:XAUUSD SAFE HAVEN PUSH Gold has gone from strength to strength despite rising US yields. The greenback (DXY) registered a minor decline last week but US 2-year and 10-year treasury yields rose for the week. The prospect of rates remaining on hold for longer, has the potential to see more hawkish repricing for treasuries that increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing commodity. Recent escalations in eastern Europe and the Middle East raise the allure of gold due to its safe haven properties but the market has returned to massively overbought territory, hinting at a potential cooling off period at the start of the week in the absence of further escalation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, April 11th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as the market continues to digest the hotter-than-expected CPI report and its implications for the Federal Reserve's actions. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5200, 5191 (major), 5184, 5178, 5171 (major), 5162. Major Supports: 5157, 5147, 5123-26 (major), 5103, 5096 (major), 5050-53 (major). Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5207, 5212 (major), 5230 (major), 5243-46 (major), 5269 (major). Major Resistances: 5287 (major), 5302-04 (major), 5321 (major), 5352 (major), 5392 (major). Trading Strategy Flag Structure in Focus: The red flag pattern established since the March 31st ATH remains crucial, with support at 5191 (ideal hold) or 5184 being key for bulls to defend. Long Opportunities: Prioritize 5191 bids, but only after reading reactions for signs of defense (ideally, grabs below). A test and reclaim of 5184 could also be a long signal. If 5191 fails, consider longs at 5171 or 5157, especially after failed breakdowns of today's lows. Short Opportunities: If a rally occurs, potential backtests of breakdown levels like 5243-46 and 5269 could be shorting areas. Exercise extreme caution with counter-trend shorts in these conditions. Chop Zone Caution: The 5191-5212 zone is currently considered high-risk for overtrading. Bull Case Support Holds: Bulls need to defend 5191 or at least 5184 to maintain control. Spikes below 5184 with rapid reclaims could signal buying strength. Backtesting Breakdowns: A strong rally could lead to retests of today's breakdown levels of 5230 and 5243-46. A push to flag resistance at 5269 is possible, triggering a breakout. Adding on Strength: In this choppy environment, it's difficult to identify reliable adding points. Consider 5207 reclaims with acceptance above. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5191 opens the door for a deeper downside move. As with ALL breakdowns, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorts at 5188 (ideally within a trendline structure). Target 5157 on this move, with level-to-level profit-taking. News: Top Stories for April 11th, 2024 Interest Rates & Inflation Market adjusts to potential year without Fed rate cuts. Larry Summers suggests the Fed might raise rates further. Hotter CPI boosts the US dollar to a 5-month high. Oil, China & Global Markets Oil prices on the rise, Bank of America predicts potential $100 per barrel. China's inflation slows, while US inflation exceeds expectations. Swiss government proposes tighter bank regulation; concerns remain. US Labor Market & Stock Performance Strong US jobs report for March highlights economic resilience. S&P 500 posts strong Q1 gains. Banking Regulations & Debt Relief UBS benefits from less-stringent Swiss banking regulation plans. US Treasury calls for action on debt relief for developing countries. ECB Policy & Corporate Earnings ECB moves closer to a rate cut. Earnings season focus on big banks and consumer spending. Reminder: The CPI report has fueled volatility and uncertainty. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly!
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
Growing Divergences in Small vs Large CapsWhat do the labor market and the stock market have in common? They are both showing a huge divergence between the fortune’s big companies and smaller companies. From 2009 to 2021, the large caps in the S&P 500 and the small caps in the Russell 2000 moved more-or-less in lock step. Since the end of 2021, however, investors in the S&P 500 have earned a 9% return. Meanwhile, investors in the Russell 2000 small caps are down nearly 20% from the index’s peak. U.S. Labor Market Survey Data We are seeing a similar divergence in U.S. labor market data as well with a huge gap developing between two different surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The establishment survey, which is a survey mainly of big businesses, shows over half a million jobs were created over the course of December and January. By contrast, the household survey – which polls 60,000 American families each month and does a better job of capturing job creation among small and mid-sized firms – shows 1.2 million jobs have been lost in December and January, and nearly 700,000 people have left the labor force altogether. The Impact of Interest Rates Why would small businesses suffer while large companies prosper? One reason might be interest rates. Many large companies have significant cash reserves which are now earning 5% returns as a result of Fed rate hikes. Also, many large companies financed themselves by issuing bonds when yields were low during the pandemic. By contrast, many smaller businesses do not have large piles of cash earning interest in T-Bills. They typically borrow from banks and suffer the effects of higher rates more quickly than their larger counterparts. The good news for small firms is that if and when the Fed begins to cut rates, their stocks might outperform the big guys in the S&P. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by CME_Group
Bitcoin Halving 2024 – This Time It’s DifferentREPORT HIGHLIGHTS: The fourth bitcoin halving event, scheduled on or around April 19, 2024, heralds a significant transformation in the cryptocurrency landscape. This halving, marked by the reduction of bitcoin supply subsidy, the emergence of a liquid investment ecosystem via CME Group futures and options, the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the introduction of Ordinals, brings forth novel dynamics that could reshape prevailing narratives around bitcoin economics. The Halving Mechanics At its core, the quadrennial halving event entails a reduction in the reward granted to miners for each block mined on the bitcoin blockchain (the block subsidy) as determined by the bitcoin protocol. It is scheduled to occur roughly every four years, or every 210,000 blocks until the entire 21 million bitcoin supply is mined, approximately by 2140. As part of bitcoin's deflationary approach to its capped supply, the upcoming halving will reduce the bitcoin supply subsidy from 6.25 bitcoin per block to 3.125 bitcoin, fostering a more stringent supply landscape. By gradually decreasing the number of bitcoin entering into circulation, and, so long as the adoption of bitcoin grows over time, the halving mechanism ensures that the laws of supply and demand will consistently impact the value of the asset. Satoshi Nakamoto, in the bitcoin whitepaper's Incentives section, noted: “In a few decades when the reward gets too small, the transaction fee will become the main compensation for nodes. I’m sure that in 20 years, there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.” Impact on Price Dynamics Source: CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate Historically, each halving event has been accompanied by a significant surge in bitcoin price in the months preceding and following the event. Notably, in the 365 calendar days after the November 28, 2012, halving, bitcoin prices rose 8,447%, when the reward was cut from 50 bitcoin to 25 bitcoin. In the year following the July 9, 2016 halving, bitcoin prices rose a more modest, but still impressive, 283%, and the block reward was reduced to 12.5 bitcoin. In the 12 months after the May 11, 2020 halving, where the reward was cut to 6.25 bitcoin per block, bitcoin prices jumped 527%. The pre-halving rally has shown a diminishing trend over time, likely due to miners selling off their bitcoin holdings to secure profits ahead of the impeding reward reduction. Nevertheless, the historical pattern suggests the potential for bitcoin to reach new all-time highs in the aftermath of the 2024 halving. Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs The landscape surrounding bitcoin has evolved significantly, particularly with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of institutional capital into the market. These ETFs have generated substantial daily demand, surpassing the pace of new bitcoin supply even before the halving and have the potential to absorb a considerable portion of the limited new issuance, To put the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows into perspective, at the current rate of block rewards, the bitcoin network produces about 900 new coins per day, or around $54 million worth of bitcoin (assuming an average price per coin of $60k). In April 2024, issuance will fall to 450 coins, or about $27 million worth of bitcoin. During the month of February, net inflows into the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs averaged $208 million per day, far outstripping the pace of new supply, even before the halving. This imbalance between new demand and limited new issuance has likely contributed to the strong upward pressure on the price. Evolution of a Large Liquid Derivatives Market The emergence of a robust, regulated derivatives market facilitated by CME Group Bitcoin futures and options marks a fundamental shift in the narrative surrounding the halving for three key reasons: it enables price risks to be hedged, facilitates the management of bitcoin demand risk and provides market participants with actionable price discovery. Miners typically sold their bitcoin for fiat currency as they mined them, to pay for operational costs. This constant selling meant that price appreciation was measured. After a halving event, miners would have fewer bitcoin to sell, meaning the price could go up. Mining is now dominated by larger, often publicly traded, companies and with a liquid regulated derivatives market, it is possible for these firms to hedge and lock in future bitcoin prices to cover expenses without selling their coins. If this is the case, then selling pressure from miners is less likely to act as a drag on bitcoin prices going forward. Through the emergence of a healthy options market, investors can take price signals and consensus estimates about market expectations. Options could allow for additional income to be earned by miners or enhance long bitcoin positions, which would further cushion the impact of the upcoming halving. A higher number of investors and traders means better liquidity and enhanced price stability for bitcoin. It’s worth noting that bitcoin has become less volatile in recent years, with fewer extreme moves both to the upside and to the downside (link to Erik.N’s article). Growing institutional participation drove Bitcoin futures average daily open interest to over $11 billion so far in March (+29,000 contracts). Year- to- date average daily volume in Bitcoin futures at CME Group is roughly $4 billion (+15,400 contracts). Large Open Interest Holders (a LOIH is any entity that holds at least 25 Bitcoin futures or Micro Bitcoin futures contracts) reached a record of 272 holders, indicating growing institutional interest for bitcoin exposure. Impact on Miners The impeding halving poses challenges and opportunities for miners, as evidenced by shifts in miner behavior and industry dynamics. Decreased bitcoin reserves held by miners, coupled with heightened competition and record high hashrates, underscore the need for operational efficiency and strategic adaptation. The number of bitcoin held in wallets associated with miners has dropped to the lowest level since July 2021, suggesting that miners are perhaps capitalizing on bitcoin's recent price surge, running down their inventory ahead of the halving or leveraging them to raise capital for upgrading machinery and mining facilities. The bitcoin hashrate, a measure of network security, is near an all-time high and a sign of high competition, meaning miners need to marshal ever more computing power to earn new rewards. The difficulty in mining a single block is also at a record, and with high energy prices, the mining landscape remains tough. In previous cycles, there weren't many large-scale miners and even fewer publicly traded ones. The halving may catalyze merger and acquisition activities among mining firms, driving industry consolidation and fostering innovation in sustainable mining practices. Several publicly listed mining firms have already indicated they will use the halving to capitalize on strategic opportunities as mining rewards decrease and competition among miners intensifies. Depending on the operational cost of each miner, less efficient, unprofitable miners may be forced to leave the network or merge with larger companies to survive. In a more competitive landscape, miners will be driven to enhance their overall operational efficiency, including machine optimization, enhanced security and best-in-class risk management practices. This could likely spur increased innovation throughout incumbent mining technologies and methodologies, ultimately benefiting the industry as a whole. As the world becomes increasingly conscious of environmental impact, bitcoin miners that are at the forefront of adopting eco-friendly, sustainable practices and renewable solutions, such as carbon capture and heat waste recycling, will likely ensure that the future of crypto aligns with global sustainability and ESG goals. The rise of Ordinals The recent surge in retail demand can be attributed in part to the rise of bitcoin Ordinals BRC 20 tokens, which are reshaping the crypto landscape. These tokens, often likened to “NFTs for Bitcoin,” have the potential to drive on-chain activity and increase transaction fees, thereby bolstering miners’ revenue streams amidst declining block rewards post-halving. Long Term Outlook Bitcoin’s designation as digital gold underscores its role as a store of value, particularly amidst the scarcity reinforced by halving events. Institutional investors who view bitcoin as a hedge against inflation may find the halving supportive of its perceived value. Shifts in central bank policies, such as prolonged higher interest rates and potential quantitative easing measures, could further bolster bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation. Looking ahead, the implication of bitcoin’s programmed scarcity intersecting with evolving demand dynamics remains intriguing. With 28 more halving events expected over the next 112 years, the future trajectory of bitcoin adoption and network growth warrants close monitoring – especially when broader retail and institutional access to bitcoin was only made possible in the U.S. less than 90 days ago with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. In conclusion, while past having cycles, with the associated price rallies offer valuable insights, the 2024 halving presents a unique confluence of factors that could usher in a new era for bitcoin. As institutional and retail interest converges with regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts, maintaining a balanced perspective is imperative to navigating the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available on TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Payal Shah, Director of Equity Research and Product Development at CME Group. *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:MBT1!Education
by CME_Group
9
GOLD stopped its decline and rebounded strongly againToday's world gold price is listed on Kitco at 2,175 USD/ounce, up 17 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning. World gold prices rebounded due to the weakening of the USD as investors still hope that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in June despite high inflation in the US. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions cause safe-haven demand for gold bars to remain. World gold prices rebounded due to the weakening of the USD as investors still hope that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in June despite high inflation in the US. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions cause safe-haven demand for gold bars to remain. Currently, there will be 2 scenarios for bullish gold speculators. If the Fed cuts interest rates, gold will skyrocket. If the interest rate cut scenario does not take place, concerns about inflation could also push gold higher. As of March 13, market indicators based on signals from the CME Fedwatch tool showed that there was a 64.7% chance that the Fed would lower interest rates at its meeting on June 12 with a cut of 25 to 50 points. percent, slightly lower than the 68.7% recorded on March 6. The possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the March 21 meeting is up to 99%, while the possibility of not reducing interest rates at the May meeting is 89.6%. In the second half of the year, the Fed is forecast to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts and precious metals will be strongly supported. Gold is forecast to reach 2,200-2,400 USD/ounce in 2024. Resistance: 2184 - 2192 - 2200 - 2210 Support: 2166 - 2157 - 2147 - 2137 Breakout: 2178 waiting for BUY test point Breakout: 2172 waiting for SELL test point
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
22
GOLD retreated from the threshold of 2,305 USDUS NONFARM PAYROLLS – OANDA:XAUUSD - The U.S. dollar and gold prices will be very sensitive to the upcoming U.S. jobs report - Market expectations suggest the U.S. economy created 200,000 payrolls in March - Strong job growth should be positive for the U.S. dollar but bearish for gold prices OANDA:XAUUSD corrected as the US Dollar recovered due to hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Kashkari warned that interest rate cuts this year may not happen without progress on inflation. He stated that if inflation trends continue to move sideways, cutting interest rates would be questionable. Kashkari finds the inflation data for January and February worrying and wants to see more progress before considering rate cuts. Kashkari is currently a hawkish representative on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), but he does not have the right to vote on monetary policy this year. Gold investors are currently focused on the US nonfarm payrolls report released today. Economists predict 200,000 new jobs will be created in March. NAVIGATING THE POTENTIAL MARKET REACTIONS How the markets respond to the NFP data will largely depend on whether the numbers exceed or fall short of expectations: Strong Report: A surprisingly strong jobs report could signal a resilient economy, leading the U.S. central bank to hold off on plans to ease interest rates imminently. This scenario should be bullish for the U.S. dollar, but is likely to put downward pressure on precious metals like gold and silver. Weak Report: A disappointing NFP release might indicate a cooling labor market. This could bolster market expectations for earlier interest rate cuts by the Fed, strengthening the case for a June move. Such a development could lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, providing potential support for gold and silver prices. OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS On the daily chart, Gold is experiencing bearish corrections after approaching the 0.786% Fibonacci Extension noticed with the Previous Strategy yesterday and it is also above the initial notable support area about 2,265USD. If the gold price is limited to downward adjustments and returns to above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level, it will again have conditions to increase in price in the short term with the target level maintained at around 2,300 - 2,311 USD. Meanwhile, even if the $2,265 level is broken below, gold still has many other notable technical supports such as the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level and the main uptrend from price channel will not change. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still heavily tilted towards the possibility of price increases and notable levels will be listed as follows. Support: 2,265 – 2,250USD Resistance: 2,275 – 2,305USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Consolidating within a tight range. Expect a breakout or breakdown with the potential for increased volatility. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5246, 5232-35 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207 (major). Major Supports: 5196-98 (major), 5181, 5172 (major), 5155 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5256, 5262 (major), 5274, 5285 (major), 5294, 5302 (major). Major Resistances: 5308 (major), 5327-30 (major), 5348 (major), 5379 (major), and others. Trading Strategy Rangebound Consolidation: ES is forming a tight base between 5235-5263. Exercise patience and prioritize either tactical adds on support tests/failed breakdowns OR hold a runner position with the trend. Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5246 and 5232-35 (prioritize the latter). Consider dips below 5232 to 5207 or 5196-98, especially if followed by reclaims. Stick to level-to-level profit-taking. Short Opportunities: While avoiding counter-trend shorts is generally advised, those inclined may consider potential shorts at 5285 (red downtrend resistance) or 5302-08 for dips. Bull Case Holding Support: Bulls maintain control as long as the 5232-35 zone holds. If it does, consolidation continues, likely forming a bullish triangle for another push toward 5274, 5285, and potentially 5302-08. Adding on Strength: If ES bases above 5246 (with dips below recovered) while staying under 5263, consider potential adds. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A failure of 5232 triggers the bear case. Remember, most breakdowns are traps, so look for a retest and failed breakdown of 5232 first, then consider shorts with level-to-level targets. News: Top Stories for April 9th, 2024 Economic Indicators CPI and PPI data in focus for inflation insights. Bond market signals potential for stable interest rates. Corporate Earnings Big banks to release quarterly reports. Interest Rate Decisions Bank of Canada and ECB announcements could impact FX and indices. EU Joint Borrowing Plan Success of the EU plan could inform future fiscal tools. Corporate Events Blackstone's potential buyout of L’Occitane. Reminder: Expect a breakout from the current tight range, potentially with volatility. Focus on reacting to price action, prioritizing risk management.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
GOLD setting a new highest peak in historyOANDA:XAUUSD market continues its unstoppable trend, hitting a record high and up nearly 5% from last Friday. Gold prices continue to benefit from escalating geopolitical tensions, although the US March jobs report lent support to the USD. Gold prices reached a new high despite strong US nonfarm payrolls data. The report showed an increase of 303,000 jobs in March, surpassing expectations. This suggests the Fed may be patient in fighting inflation. Although gold prices initially decreased, they later recovered and rose by over 1.5%. The market's short-term reaction indicates a demand for shelter. The main factors driving gold price increases are starting to take effect more and there is more room for the next price increase. Issues such as rising tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine have increased the appeal of gold. Gold prices had their third consecutive weekly increase, after a series of recent records. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heat up, gold's safe-haven function will gradually become more effective. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that for the week ending April 2, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 20,493 lots to 178,213 lots . Notable economic data & events next week Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Bank of Canada monetary policy decision Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, US core PPI, US weekly initial jobless claims Friday: University of Michigan preliminary data on consumer sentiment Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continuously creates new all-time highs. After gaining support from the 2,265 USD level, gold continued to break the peak and also broke the important resistance level at the Fibonacci 0.786% price point of 2,311 USD. Note to readers in the previous issue. Gold now qualifies for a new bullish cycle as the next technical level in focus could be towards the $2,356 price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension. The $2,311 – $2,300 level becomes the closest support after the above break, and a bearish correction is possible only if gold manages to bring price activity below the 0.786% Fibonacci level, even in the case of a bearish correction. Gold price will also be limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci level and the price point of 2,265USD. In the coming time, the main trend of gold price will still be the upward trend from price channel in the short term and price channel in the long term. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,311 – 2,300 – 2,275 Resistance: 2,346 - 2,356
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Gold rebounded after falling at the beginning of the sessionGold price today April 8, 2024 on the world market increased dramatically, reaching a new record level of nearly 2,342 USD/ounce after adjusting downward in the morning. Gold prices set a record thanks to high trading volume after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that recent data will not change the overall economic situation. The US economy continues to grow positively, experts say the Fed still maintains its view on adjusting interest rates this year. Strong money flows are flowing into gold. Technically, gold prices may decrease next week. But according to this expert, the technical chart has no meaning right now, central banks continue to buy, which causes gold prices to still increase. In addition, increasing tensions in the Middle East also boost the demand for safe assets such as gold. Strong buying by central banks and speculative activity are supporting gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Volume-Trade
GOLD new all-time high, technical area can make correctionsOANDA:XAUUSD continues to make new all-time highs, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated that recent job growth data and higher-than-expected inflation data will not materially change the the general situation of economic policy this year (the Fed is expected to start its interest rate cutting cycle in June). Fed Jerome Powell Powell said that “if the economy expands as we expect,” he and his colleagues at the Fed largely agree that lower policy rates would be appropriate “sometime this year.” ”. Speeches from Federal Reserve officials, strong jobs data and a decline in business activity in the services sector weighed on the dollar. A slight decline in the US Dollar will create a boost for safe-haven precious metals. Investors still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time at its policy meeting on June 11-12, although recent strong economic data has tempered expectations. Overall, it doesn't have much impact. Gold, a hedge against inflation and a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, has risen more than 11% year to date, thanks to strong Federal Reserve buying and demand. safe haven. Macro data The ADP report showed that U.S. private companies last month saw their biggest hiring gain since last July, led by the leisure and hospitality industry. Job growth was strong in all industries, but employment fell in professional services. US ADP employment increased by 184,000 people in March, the largest increase since July 2023. “ADP data is not a game changer.” Along with the upward revision to February's data, this is another small piece of evidence that the US economy continues to grow, which should continue to support rising yields. Even in the case of better data than gold, there is still a lot of momentum, and we can even see the dollar market and bond yields rising along with gold. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the US non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 51.4 in March from 52.6 in February. This is the second consecutive month of decline. continued since the index recovered in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. Services inflation is also falling due to slowing demand. The survey showed that the input price index fell to 53.4 in March from 58.6 in February, the lowest since March 2020. Data last week showed inflation in the services sector, excluding energy and housing, cooled sharply in February after accelerating in January. The geopolitical situation drives the need for shelter Early on the morning of April 4 local time, the deputy governor in charge of security in Sistan and Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran said that military headquarters in the province's Rask and Chabahar cities were attacked by terrorists. The terrorist organization "Army of Justice" participated in this terrorist attack. The deputy governor in charge of provincial security said that in Lask city, terrorists tried to break into the Revolutionary Guard base but were unsuccessful and the conflict is still ongoing. It is known that 3 Iranian soldiers were killed in the battle with the terrorist organization "Army of Justice". Iran blames Israel for the deadly airstrike on its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus on Monday. The attack killed seven officers. Tehran on Tuesday pledged to retaliate for the attack, seen as a major escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian war. Geopolitical risks are becoming increasingly prominent, which is beneficial for safe-haven demand, especially assets sensitive to geopolitical instability such as gold. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD In terms of technical structure, the gold price still has all the bullish factors. All-time levels are continuously refreshed and currently gold slows down to reach the original price of 2,300 USD and the area near the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, this area is expected to create short-term corrections first. as the main uptrend continues. Since gaining support from the $2,265 level, readers noted in yesterday's edition gold has increased significantly with a break above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension making this level support. Current nearest support. The gold market is likely to receive downward corrections as the Relative Strength Index reaches overbought levels, a short-term price decline that could retest the support area of the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. In the short term, the main trend of gold price is still an uptrend and may adjust in the short term. Notable technical levels are listed below: Resistance: 2306 - 2315 - 2320 - 2330 - 2335 Support: 2297 - 2288 - 2282 - 2266
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Gold boom, reversal or new record ahead?Gold price today (April 9), the world market reversed and increased sharply again compared to the previous trading session. Rising demand and high expectations of investors have pushed gold prices up despite positive economic developments. A series of positive US economic information shows signs that the world's No. 1 economy is recovering well. Therefore, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) still maintains its stance of tightening monetary policy until inflation falls to the target level of 2%. Market forecasts for the Fed to lower interest rates next June have decreased from over 70% to over 60%. Gold has reached multiple record highs this year, mostly in the past two months. Surprisingly, its usual negative correlation with U.S. real rates has significantly weakened, causing concern among investors. Gold prices are reaching new record highs due to geopolitical concerns and a strong safe-haven demand. Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have contributed to the recent surge, and as the situation is expected to persist, the demand for gold will continue. Support: 2328 - 2313 - 2303USD Resistance: 2348 - 2354 - 2360USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Volume-Trade
Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, April 8th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish with potential for volatility as CPI data approaches. Important Note: CPI data will be released later this week. Expect outsized moves and potential traps. Prioritize risk management and adaptability. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5246 (major), 5230-34 (major), 5221, 5212, 5207, 5203 (major), and others. Major Supports: 5196, 5191 (major), 5181, 5179 (major), 5172, 5162 (major), 5155, 5144-46 (major), and many more. Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5255 (major), 5263, 5270 (major), 5279, 5287, 5292 (major), and others. Major Resistances: 5302, 5308 (major), 5311, 5316, 5321, 5329-32 (major), and more. Trading Strategy Defending Support: The 5230-34 zone is crucial for bulls. Holding this level signals potential for an upwards move toward 5287-92, with possible profit-taking dips along the way. Long Opportunities: Focus on the 5230-34 zone (if today's high remains unbroken). In case of a breakdown, use extreme caution and target major supports like 5203 and 5191. Look for failed breakdowns and reclaims as potential long entry signals. Shorting with Caution: Shorting into strength within bull markets is inherently risky. If considering shorts, the best area is the 5287-92 zone (red downtrend channel), with another potential reaction at 5270. Bull Case Holding Strong: As long as 5230-34 support holds (ideally with a minor dip promptly bought below 5203), the path is open to 5287-92. Expect another dip there before potentially reaching new all-time highs. Ultra Bullish Scenario: If bulls hold above 5246 and buy any small dips, this signals strength and could lead to potential adds. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: If 5230-34 fails, the bear case activates. Since most breakdowns trap, look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider short entries with level-to-level profit targets. News: Top Stories for April 8th, 2024 Stock Market Outlook S&P 500 hits record highs, strong Q1 performance increases bullish sentiment. Reduced recession fears and potential Fed pivot drive positive outlook. April historically favorable for the S&P 500. Analysts forecast strong earnings growth with significant upside potential. Corporate Earnings Intel's Q1 2024 financial results release set for April 25th. Perion Network updates guidance, increases share buyback. Economic Indicators Q4 GDP growth remains solid despite high interest rates. Bond market signals potential Fed rate cuts as early as June. Trade deficit widens, while manufacturing data shows strength. Technology Sector Modest growth expected in 2024, with IT investment plans. AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity to drive tech spending. Other Corporate and Market News Nvidia's strong performance continues in AI chip market. Tesla faces challenges in China, automotive growth slows. Boeing impacted by quality control concerns. Upcoming Events Tech conferences including Google Cloud Next and ODSC East. Women in Tech Global Conference highlights industry leaders. Reminder: The CPI release this week will likely cause significant volatility. Adapt your trading accordingly, with an emphasis on reacting to price action and prioritizing risk management.
CME_MINI:ESM2024Short
by spytradingpro
GOLD in March marked a record month of increaseWorld gold price stood at 2,259 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 26 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. MARKET RECAP: NEW RECORD IN THE BOOKS Gold broke its previous record and crossed the $2,200 per ounce mark in an exceptional first quarter. This surge was mainly driven by investor expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy outlook. Following a period of significant interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023 in many developed economies, investors anticipate central banks like the Fed to start easing restrictions as economic growth and inflation stabilize. The future potential for gold's upward movement may be limited due to the already priced-in transition to a more relaxed stance. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to adopt a more dovish posture, which is necessary for significant gains, given recent guidance and inflation risks. If the FOMC delays action and shifts towards a more hawkish direction, gold could face turbulence. Gold typically benefits from lower Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. dollar, which are associated with the Fed reducing borrowing costs. BEYOND THE FED: GEOPOLITICS, CENTRAL BANK DEMAND The impact of global interest rates on gold's trend is not the only factor to consider. Ongoing conflicts, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war, have already increased the geopolitical value of gold and could provide further support if tensions escalate in the next quarter. In addition, strong purchases of physical gold by central banks will contribute to market strength. In 2022 and 2023, central banks acquired more than 1,000 tonnes of gold each year, signaling a historic pace. The Central Bank of Turkey and the People's Bank of China were among the active buyers. Central banks are buying gold in record amounts due to its safe-haven qualities, stability as a store of value, and diversification benefits. As global power dynamics shift and U.S. dominance becomes less certain, central banks are strategically reallocating their reserves away from heavy reliance on the U.S. dollar. Limited data for 2024 shows strong demand for gold, with January's central bank acquisitions of 39 tonnes and projections suggesting continued robust demand throughout the year. This could provide a buffer against potential losses in a bearish market correction. THE OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL WITH A WATCHFUL EYE The second quarter may see consolidation for gold after its strong gains in the first months. A significant price surge is unlikely unless there are unexpected changes in global inflation and monetary policy. Investors should monitor economic data, central bank communication, and geopolitical developments for insights into gold's future. The upcoming U.S. presidential election could bring increased volatility and potentially benefit gold prices as a defensive investment. However, this is not expected to dominate the market in the second quarter yet. Assessing the outlook, it is estimated that gold price can easily reach 2,300 USD/ounce or higher in the second quarter of 2024. Resistance: 2260 - 2265 - 2270 Support: 2250 - 2245 - 2235 - 2225
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1