Trading Plan for Thursday, March 28th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, March 28th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5307, 5302, 5296-5299 (major), 5293, 5288 (major), 5284, 5280, 5274 (major), 5268-70 (major), 5265, 5258 (major), 5245-47 (major), 5240, 5235 (major), 5230, 5217, 5213-16 (major), 5208 (major), 5203, 5190-93 (major), 5178-76 (major), 5171, 5165 (major), 5155-58 (major), 5147, 5143, 5136, 5123-26 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5311, 5316 (major), 5320, 5326, 5336, 5342 (major), 5346, 5351 (major), 5360, 5364, 5372 (major), 5380-83 (major), 5388, 5395, 5403 (major), 5413, 5425-30 (major), 5445 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Price Discovery: After a strong surge, the market is in price discovery mode. Prioritize patience and focus on reacting to price action rather than predicting.
Long Opportunities: Exercise caution with after-hours long entries: prioritize profit preservation on your existing long runner. Consider bids at 5296-5299 for a backtest, or, for additional confirmation, wait for the 5274-70 zone to be tested and reclaimed. Below that, only the major levels are of interest for longs.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strength after a strong move carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action.
Bull Case
Support Holds: As long as supports like 5299-96 and the crucial 5274-70 zone hold, bulls maintain short-term control.
Breakout Continuation: A decisive hold and test of 5299-96 could lead to a surge towards 5316, 5320, 5326, with 5342 as the first major target.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5267-70 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 28th, 2024
U.S. Economy Outlook: Analysts provide insights on the U.S. economy's resilience, potential for soft landing, and the Fed's possible rate adjustments in late 2024.
Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500's recent gains, fueled by strong corporate earnings and optimistic investor sentiment.
Global Economic Updates: Updates on the economic conditions of the Eurozone, the U.K., and emerging markets, including growth projections from Vanguard.
Corporate Earnings Updates: Focus on financial results and guidance from companies like Sharecare, Janover Inc., and Medigene AG.
Stock Market Trends: Wall Street's positive reaction to the Fed's recent dovish comments and expectations for continued market gains. Review Indian equity market performance.
F&O Ban List: Securities facing F&O ban and their potential impact on trading activity.
Market Forecasts: Analyze market sentiment, gold and Bitcoin price trends, and potential cybersecurity investments.
Remember: The market is undergoing price discovery. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
Futures
GOLD record increase after FED's decisionFORECAST - OANDA:XAUUSD
- The Fed held borrowing costs unchanged and continued to indicate it would deliver three rate cuts this year
- The dovish policy outlook weighed on the U.S. dollar and yields, boosting gold prices
For context, the FOMC kept borrowing costs at their current levels at its March gathering, reaffirming its intention to implement 75 basis points of easing in 2024. Wall Street, fearing a hawkish outcome in the face of growing inflation risks, breathed a sigh of relief at the institution’s restrained response.
While there were some hawkish elements in the Fed’s guidance, such as the upward revision to the long-run equilibrium rate, traders chose to focus on the near-term future and the fact that the easing cycle is inching closer and looming on the horizon.
With all that said, the main takeaway from the FOMC meeting was this: nothing has really changed for the central bank; plans to cut rates this year remain on track and the process to slow the pace of quantitative tightening is rapidly approaching, with Powell saying tapering could start “fairly soon”.
Taking into account today’s developments, bond yields will struggle to move much higher in the near term, especially if incoming economic data starts cooperating with policymakers. This could prevent the U.S. dollar from extending its rebound in the coming days and weeks.
Meanwhile, risk assets and precious metals such as gold and silver could be better positioned to maintain upward momentum heading into the second quarter.
OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold surged on Wednesday, breaking past its previous record and notching a new all-time high above $2,220. With bulls seemingly in control of the market, a potential move towards trendline resistance at $2,225 is conceivable. On further strength, a rally above $2,250 cannot be ruled out.
Conversely, if sellers stage a comeback and pullback, support looms at $2,195, the swing high from early March. Below this level, attention will turn to $2,150, followed by $2,090. Bulls must vigorously defend this technical floor; failure to do so will expose the 50-day simple moving average at $2,065.
Resistance price ranges to note: 2225 - 2201 - 2189 - 2180 - 2175
GOLD goes down when the USD reverses to increase in priceGold price today, March 22, suddenly went down in the context of the USD reversing its price and US stocks rising sharply.
After setting a record level of 2,211 USD/ounce in last night's trading session, today's world gold price plummeted 30 USD to 2,181 USD/ounce at 6:00 a.m. on March 22.
Gold prices weakened today in the context of the Swiss National Bank suddenly reducing interest rates. Meanwhile. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. As a result, investors focus on holding USD, helping this currency increase in price, which is detrimental to the gold market.
Another development is that after the US announced it was ready to reduce interest rates three times in 2024, the US stock market continued to increase sharply. Many people have moved their equity capital, causing very little money to flow into precious metals. Today's world gold price drops by dozens of USD/ounce, which is inevitable.
After the Fed meeting, gold prices are expected to reach the resistance level at $2,222/ounce. If this level is surpassed, it is likely that prices will reach between $2,228 - $2,234/ounce. In the long term, the Fed plans to cut interest rates three times this year starting in June, which will lead to a decline in USD compared to other currencies.
Resistance: 2188 - 2195
Support: 2172 - 2168 - 2152 - 2145
GOLD continued to decline compared to the previous sessionWorld gold spot price is around 2,165 USD/ounce, down more than 16 USD/ounce compared to the same time yesterday morning.
Gold prices on the international market continue to decline because the USD has not stopped its rise. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased sharply by 0.42% to 104,075 points at 6:05 a.m. this morning.
The USD benefited from positive economic and employment information in the US in February, despite the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announcing that it would reduce operating interest rates this year.
The positive recovery of the US economy has helped investors escape capital from precious metals such as gold - an asset that ensures capital safety - to invest in profitable assets such as stocks and bonds.
On March 21, the Dow Jones industrial index set a new peak, increasing nearly 0.7% to 39,781.37 points, the S&P 500 index increased 0.3% to 5,241.53 points, and the Nasdaq technology index Composite increased 0.2% to 16,401.84 points.
Investors turned to investing in risky assets such as stocks, which shows that the market is somewhat reassured when the US economy remains strong despite interest rates remaining at a 20-year high and the Fed expected to cut reduce interest rates this year.
CHARTOLOGY 101 --- 43 years in the makingThe bigger the pattern
the bigger the consolidation
the more explosive the move
how about this Chart Porn?
Cup and handle
I expect the log tgt not only to be made but surpassed given yesterdays event's in #baltimore
Yup Massive east coast supply chain disruptions to be expected
Ports jammed
Aviation fuel disruptions
Major economic ripples could transpire form this
the east coast is home to 120 million people I believe ..
Wow
Stock up on your Cadbury's and many other things ... :0
📈SOL Technical Analysis: Key Resistance Breakout Expected🔑🔍Today, it's Thursday and the Solana (SOL) price on the 4-hour timeframe indicates a consolidating pattern.
Over the past few days, SOL has approached the critical resistance level at $195.03. After testing this level once and then experiencing a fakeout, it retraced twice. This suggests $195.03 as a significant level, potentially marking the beginning of the next upward movement upon breakout.
📊Moreover, SOL's trading volume has decreased compared to its parabolic phase, reflecting decreased market excitement. Patiently waiting for the breakout above $195.03 is crucial for significant volumes to enter the market.
🚀Applying Fibonacci retracement tool reveals a correction to the 0.382 level, forming a range between 0.382 and 0 levels.
📈For long positions, consider entering after the breakout above $195.03, offering a favorable trigger point. If the breakout sustains without a fakeout, it could be one of the best entry points for the next upward movement.
📉As for short positions, exercising patience until SOL tests the range further, or alternatively, entering after the breakdown below $168.87, pending confirmation by the Dow Theory.
⚡️By staying vigilant and strategic, traders can capitalize on potential opportunities in SOL's price movements.
Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 27th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, March 27th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5266 (major), 5258, 5247 (major), 5242, 5233-36 (major), 5221, 5213, 5206-10 (major), 5198, 5188-91 (major), 5181, 5172, 5167-69 (major), 5162, 5153-55 (major), 5146, 5137, 5126 (major), 5119 (major), 5109
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5274 (major), 5281, 5286-88 (major), 5293, 5299 (major), 5305 (major), 5311, 5315, 5318-20 (major), 5328, 5336-38 (major), 5345 (major), 5354, 5365 (major), 5372, 5380 (major), 5392, 5399 (major), 5408 (major), 5416 (major), 5425, 5432, 5440-44 (major), 5448, 5457 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Support & Resistance: Watch for potential bounces on support levels 5266, 5247 (triangle backtest), or a deeper pullback to 5242. For shorts, look higher towards 5286-88 or the 5299 zone after a strong move up.
Long Opportunities: Consider longs only on strong reactions to support levels, ideally with confirmed failed breakdowns for added safety.
Short Opportunities: If considering shorts, strong moves up followed by signs of weakness near resistance zones could be potential areas.
Focus on Reactions: Be adaptable – volatility can create opportunities and traps with equal measure.
Bull Case
Support Holds: As long as supports like 5266, then particularly the triangle backtest at 5247 hold, bulls maintain short-term control.
Breakout potential: A decisive breakout above the flag pattern's resistance around the 5300 zone could lead to a surge towards 5318-20 and potentially new highs.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5266 followed by continued selling could trigger a move downwards. Look for potential shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces with extremely tight stops due to FOMC volatility. .
News: Top Stories for March 27th, 2024
Regulatory Response to Bank Runs: Federal Reserve and regulatory officials prepare to announce new rules designed to prevent future bank crises, addressing lessons learned from last year's turmoil.
Economic Outlook: Recent CPI data, comments from industry leaders and analysts provide insights into inflation trends, monetary policy expectations, and the global economic outlook.
Market Performance and Expectations: A cautious outlook for 2024 due to various factors including geopolitical risks and monetary headwinds.
Corporate News: Updates on legal settlements, management changes, and stock market debuts affecting companies like Visa, Mastercard, Boeing, and Truth Social.
Legal Issues in Crypto: U.S. prosecutors file criminal charges against KuCoin exchange and its founders.
Currency and Interest Rates: Tracking movements in the Japanese Yen and potential actions by the Swedish Riksbank.
Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 26th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, March 26th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, consolidation after rally
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5274-76 (major), 5267, 5263 (major), 5257, 5247-51 (major), 5243, 5235, 5228 (major), 5221, 5217, 5212, 5200-03 (major), 5194, 5190 (major), 5179, 5171, 5167 (major), 5163, 5152-55 (major), 5147, 5137, 5126 (major), 5115 (major).
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5281, 5288 (major), 5292, 5299-5303 (major), 5307, 5311, 5316 (major), 5320, 5329, 5337 (major), 5346, 5351, 5356 (major), 5364, 5371, 5380, 5386 (Major), 5392, 5408 (major), 5416, 5426, 5434-37 (major), 5443-5446 (major).
Trading Strategy:
Tight Range: Be prepared for continued choppy trading within the range defined by the multi-day flag structure. Trade with caution and focus on range-bound strategies or consider sitting out.
Flag Structure: Observe the bull flag structure with support around 5274-76 and resistance near 5288 and the 5300 zone. A decisive breakout or breakdown could provide a clearer directional signal.
Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5274-76, particularly after a retest and reclaim. If this level fails, be extremely cautious about longs and consider bids only at major support levels like 5263 and 5247-51 (triangle back-test). Watch for failed breakdowns for added confirmation.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strength carries significant risk, particularly within the flag structure. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near 5288 or the 5300 zone. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold within this consolidation pattern.
Bull Case
Flag Breakout: A breakout above the bull flag resistance around 5288 and further above 5300 could signal a continuation of the uptrend, targeting 5316, 5338, and ultimately 5350+.
Support Holds: As long as 5274-76 holds, the bulls remain in short-term control. Look for potential add-on points if a breakout occurs, preferably after acceptance or a failed breakdown.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5274-76 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 26th, 2024
GameStop Earnings: Focus on the GameStop earnings report and its potential impact on the stock market and meme stock sentiment.
Federal Reserve Updates: Stay informed about the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans and their impact on market sentiment, particularly concerns about a potential market crash.
Global Economic Developments: Monitor updates on economic conditions in Germany, the U.S. housing market, and the China-U.S. trade dispute.
U.S. Economy: Analysis of the U.S. economy's resilience, and the implications for the Fed's possible rate cut plans.
Stock Market Performance: Track stock market movements, including updates on the Sensex, the Nifty, and the impact of new home sales data in the U.S.
Banking and Regulations: Examine the impact of Basel III regulations on the APAC banking sector and the outlook for emerging markets.
U.S. Fiscal Policy: Consider the CBO's warnings about rising U.S. federal debt and the increasing cost of debt servicing.
Remember: The market is consolidating after a strong rally. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
Trading Plan for Monday, March 25th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, March 25th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels after the rally
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5284-88 (major), 5276, 5259 (major), 5245-48 (major), 5236, 5230, 5219-21 (major), 5213, 5208, 5200-5197 (major), 5191, 5186, 5177, 5168-71 (major), 5163, 5155, 5145 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5295, 5302 (major), 5307 (major), 5313, 5320, 5328 (major), 5338, 5348 (major), 5355, 5363-66 (major), 5380, 5389, 5396-5400 (major), 5412, 5428 (major), 5438-42 (major), 5450, 5460-63 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Choppy Range: Be prepared for potential choppiness within the 5302-5288 range. Trade with caution and focus on range-bound strategies if this pattern persists.
Flag Structure: Observe the bull flag structure that has formed since Thursday. A decisive breakout or breakdown could provide a clearer directional signal.
Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5284-88, particularly after a retest and reclaim. If this level fails, be extremely cautious about longs and consider bids only at major support levels like 5259 and 5245-48 (triangle back-test).
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement, and focus on 5307 and potentially 5348 if we get that far.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the rally.
Bull Case
Flag Breakout: A breakout above the bull flag resistance around 5307 could signal a continuation of the uptrend, targeting 5320, 5338, then 5348.
Support Holds: As long as 5284-88 holds as support, the bulls remain in short-term control. Look for potential add-on points if 5307 breaks out, preferably after acceptance or a failed breakdown.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5284 could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 25th, 2024
Federal Reserve Updates: Analysis of the Fed's latest interest rate decision, economic projections, and implications for future monetary policy. Focus on how market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 may have shifted, and the continued focus on inflation data.
Inflation and Economic Data: Discussion of the latest CPI figures, job market data, and their potential impact on the Fed's approach to managing inflation.
Market Reactions: Examine how global markets have reacted to the Fed's decisions, including equity indices, treasury yields, and the dollar's performance.
Global Economic Outlook: Updates from Vanguard on economic expectations, contrasting the U.S. with trends in the Eurozone and U.K.
Lessons from Bank Failures: Reflect on the lessons learned from recent stress in regional banks and discuss implications for the financial system's overall stability.
Energy Transition: Analysis of the challenges and opportunities in the electrification of energy markets.
Stock Market Sentiment: Review market sentiment after the Fed decision and the potential for near-term changes.
Remember: The market might be consolidating after a strong rally. Be adaptable, manage risk, prioritize capital preservation, and always prioritize reacting to price action over any predictions.
FTSE 100 Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
--------------------
2-1-2024
Sideways Momentum with RED TrapZone established now and GREEN UMVD continues still. Price swinging UP & DOWN around the TrapZone. Cant seem to find a direction.
NIKKE 225 Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
>> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post <<
--------------------
2-24-2024
Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established now and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
GOLD remained motionless ahead of the Fed meetingThe Federal Reserve will announce its March monetary policy on Wednesday. Experts expect the benchmark rate to remain unchanged, along with the quantitative tightening program. The focus will be on forward guidance, with the Fed likely stating that they won't lower borrowing costs until there is more confidence in inflation reaching 2 percent.
The Fed may raise its GDP and core PCE deflator forecasts due to economic resilience and persistent price pressures. This could lead to a reduction in expected rate cuts for 2024 from three to two.
The following table shows projections from the December FOMC meeting.
If the Federal Reserve signals a greater inclination to exercise patience before removing policy restraint and shows less willingness to deliver multiple rate cuts, we could see U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar charge upwards in the near term, extending their recent rebound. Meanwhile, stocks and gold, which have rallied strongly recently on the assumption that the central bank was on the cusp of pivoting to a looser stance, could be in for a rude awakening (bearish correction).
Resistance: 2166 - 2175 - 2182
Support: 2146 - 2140 - 2137 - 2125
Hang Seng Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
>> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post <<
--------------------
2-25-2024
Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established for a while and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
DAX Analysis - Continuous, Just as the Markets !This is a Thread, so Follow for Technical Analysis performed with TrapZone Pro & UMVD Indicators.
* Trend is Based on TrapZone Color
* Bar Colors give us Momentum Green from strong Up Moves. Red Bars point to strong Down Moves.
* Red UMVD = Selling Pressure & Green UMVD = Buying Pressure. Purple is for Divergence = Battle of Supply & Demand
>> USE PAGE DN to go DOWN To the LATEST Post <<
--------------------
2-25-2024
Strong Upside Momentum with wide GREEN TrapZone established now and GREEN UMVD continues. Class A Entry at the top of the TrapZone.
Trading Plan for Friday, March 22nd, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, March 22nd, 2024
Market Sentiment: Cautious, watching key support levels
Weekly Volatility Risk: High
Supports to Watch:
Immediate Supports: 5302 (major), 5298, 5286, 5282-79 (major), 5275, 5257, 5246-49 (major), 5236 (major), 5231, 5225, 5218 (major), 5212, 5208 (major), 5203, 5191-94 (major), 5179, 5169-71 (major), 5162, 5153-55 (major), 5147, 5136 (major), 5123-26 (major), 5115, 5108 (major), 5102, 5092, 5077-82 (major)
Resistances to Monitor:
Key Resistances: 5308, 5320 (major), 5331, 5337-39 (major), 5347, 5350-5354 (major), 5362, 5374, 5381, 5385-90 (major), 5400, 5413, 5425-30 (major)
Trading Strategy:
Support Testing: The market is likely to test key support levels after the rally. Prioritize capital preservation and be watchful for potential bounce plays.
Long Opportunities: Look for potential long entries at 5302 (after retest and reclaim), 5282-79, or the triangle backtest at 5246-49. Avoid aggressive longs if the triangle backtest fails.
Short Opportunities: Counter-trend shorting on strong up moves carries significant risk. Use extreme caution if considering shorts near major resistances. Watch for signs of a breakdown or retracement for better risk/reward entries.
Focus on Reactions: Don't force trades, be patient, and react to price action. Let price discovery unfold after the rally.
Bull Case
Triangle Backtest Hold: Bulls maintain control as long as the 5246-49 triangle backtest holds. A bounce here, particularly if it extends to the 5282-79 zone, provides a strong entry for a move back towards the 5320 resistance.
Basing and Building: Bulls could base above 5302 after a retracement, creating the potential for further upside moves. Watch for flagging in this zone for potential upside.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Breakdown below 5302 and especially below the 5251-47 triangle backtest could trigger selling pressure. Watch for shorting opportunities on failed breakdowns or bounces. Exercise patience as these setups often involve traps.
News: Top Stories for March 22nd, 2024
Global Economic Developments: Labor market developments in Germany, housing market indicators in the U.S., the Panama Canal's financial performance, and the global semiconductor industry.
Federal Reserve Updates: The impact of the Fed's latest interest rate decision and economic forecasts.
Inflation and Jobs: Analysis of the latest job market data and inflation trends, and their implications for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy actions.
International Markets: Updates on foreign direct investment in China, German business sentiment, inflation in Japan, and the Australian economy's response to interest rate pressures.
Legislative Updates (U.S.): Developments regarding the U.S. spending bill and geopolitical concerns surrounding the CHIPS grant in Arizona.
Indian Equity Markets: Analysis of recent movements in the Indian markets, including IT, auto sector news, and performance of the Sensex and Nifty.
Corporate News: Stock market reactions to company announcements, such as news from Larsen and Toubro and IDFC FIRST Bank. Outlook on Accenture and other tech stocks.
IPO and Stock Market Updates: Discussion of how Reddit's IPO performance may impact the overall market sentiment and encourage other companies to go public.
Remember: The market is likely in a price discovery phase. Be adaptable, manage risk, and react to price action rather than predicting.
GOLD Fed in spotlight – Bullish explosion or crash ahead?OANDA:XAUUSD OUTLOOK
- Gold prices retreated this week but are still up more than 5% in March
- The Fed’s monetary policy announcement will take center stage in the coming week
Gold prices (XAU/USD) fell 1.05% this week to $2,155 due to higher U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. However, gold has maintained strong bullish momentum in March, with a gain of around 5.5% and recent all-time highs.
Earlier this month, gold prices surged as investors anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The rally further intensified after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that policymakers were close to gaining confidence in the inflation outlook. However, recent consumer price data suggests that progress on disinflation may be stalling or reversing, causing a shift in the market sentiment for gold.
With inflation risks emerging and reflected in recent CPI and PPI reports, the central bank may adopt a more cautious stance, indicating the need for patience in removing policy measures. This could result in fewer rate cuts than initially expected. The Federal Reserve's plans will be clarified next week when they announce their March decision. While policy settings are anticipated to remain unchanged, there could be revised guidance and forecasts based on new macroeconomic information, as data-dependency is a key principle.
In the latest Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed hinted that it would deliver 75 basis points of easing this year and market pricing has converged to this estimate of late. If policymakers were to indicate an intention to deliver fewer cuts than what’s currently discounted, we could see bond yields and the U.S. dollar push higher. This should be bearish for gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices fell this week, but managed to hold above support at $2,150. Bulls must actively protect this technical zone to prevent an escalation of selling pressure; failure to do so may trigger a pullback towards $2,085. In case of further weakness, the spotlight will be on $2,065.
On the flip side, if buyers regain decisive control of the market and spark a bullish reversal from the metal’s current position, the first obstacle lies at the record peak established earlier this month at $2,195. Further upward movement will draw attention to trendline resistance near $2,205.
Resistance: 2160 - 2165 - 2173
Support: 2146 - 2135 - 2125 - 2100