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2024-08-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - All green, all good. Bulls want more climactic buying but have to settle with grinding it up. Bears are not building enough selling pressure to print consecutive bigger bear bars on higher time frames. Only look for longs until that changes. As of now, there is no reason not to expect much higher prices and new ath. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Much two sided trading today but bulls closed it green and they are making higher highs and higher lows. We are close to 20000 and will most likely hit it tomorrow. Market is not stopping so looking for shorts is a bad strategy right now for most traders. Bears built decent selling pressure today but to no avail. Market refuses to go lower as of now. Above 20000 I don’t think bulls have any resistance until 20200 but that is weak resistance at best so it’s not totally out of the question that we will just continue in an almost straight line to 21000. For bears there is nothing but pain right now. They would need a strong 1h close below 19700 for a start and many stops would probably be below 19450-19500. current market cycle: Bull trend in bigger trading range key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls only see a 15% up move from the lows and absolutely no reason to exit longs anywhere. They want to dance while the music is playing. Buying is becoming climactic and this increases the odds of a pullback. 20000 is a big round number and we could see the start of some profit taking there but for now I have my doubts. Invalidation is below 19500. bear case: Bears are not doing much. They tried multiple times today to keep the market from advancing too much and at least they kept it below 20000 but as long as they are not even touching the 4h 20ema, they have to content with scalps and taking quick profits. The best bears can hope for is to keep it below 20000 but the odds of that are low. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Can’t be anything but bullish above 19700. Below I turn more neutral medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Between the orange lines was decent two sided trading but many many weird spikes and difficult trades to take. Buying 19800 was probably the best today.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
#BTCUSDT.P Daily trades//setup 1/5RR LONG X3 LEVERAGE# hello TRADERS , hope you’re doing well This our TRADE setup for today no further analyses of the entry since this position is lower-timeframe Based ######### POSITION SETUP ######## recommended leverage: X3 ENTRY POINT :58822 SL: 57730 TP:64500 ### Not financial advice disclaimer ### #You can use leverage at your own responsability and according to your risk management strategy ## remember to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research. always, trade with caution ## Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis #Make sure you follow and activate the notification to catch the move instantly If you have any questions, or any Coin to analyse you can write them in the comments section below. #####We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC) revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the functioning of the most powerful HIGH frequency trading algorithms very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps straight to the target Join US!! ********* WAKE-UP NEO =) follow the white rabbit********
Long
by LEETRADERS
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above. dax futures comment: Bears printed multiple bars below the 1h 20ema. What a time to be alive. Bulls took profits on the insane meltup but bought 18400 again, which has a bull trend line running through it. As long as that holds, bulls are good. If bears come around again tomorrow, open of the week is a magnet at 19379 and the low of the week at 18347. Tomorrow evening we get the FOMC minutes, so best to be flat going into it. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls took a breather and kept it above 18400, which is still above the 4h 20ema and max bullish. Below 18347 I think we will see more profit taking and some bigger move down, maybe to the daily ema at 18170. For now bulls remain in control and higher prices are expected as long as above daily ema and the bull trend line intact. For tomorrow I expect mostly sideways movement between 18400 - 18550. Invalidation is below 18340. bear case: Bears stopped the train for now and got near the open of the week, which is good for them. They probably made the market more neutral going into FOMC tomorrow evening. If they could break below the bull trend line, we could see 18300 but everything below would be a huge surprise. They probably wont fight the bulls for 18400 too much and come around above 18500 again. Technically the bears can be hopeful because the high is still a lower high below the start of August at 18650 which was also the high tick for the month so far. Invalidation is above 18650. short term: max bullish - only look for longs as long bull trend line is intact and we are above 18300. Below we can look for lower targets like the daily ema but it will probably be just a pullback in this bull trend (inside the big trading range on the daily tf) medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nopety nope nope. Only long scalps currently. trade of the day: I fought the bears too many times today. Denial is the death of your account. It was just bearish since the opening reversal below bar 31. 32 was strong enough to expect more downside but it was also the low of the Globex trading range. Tough to take. Market could not print more then tails and bar 54 above the 15m 20ema and bears had no reason to exit their shorts anywhere. Bad trading on my part today.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Long
by priceactiontds
2
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small stop in the meltup but bulls bought it above the bull trend line. Same as for dax that I do not expect anything below 5600 for now and it should not go above 5650 before FOMC or you can consider me surprised. If anything, I’d bet on a bull breakout and not for strong bears. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5600 - 5650 bull case: Bulls are currently buying the 2h 20ema and did so today. If they keep it above 5600 then 5650 is probably a magnet for tomorrow. On the 1h chart posted today was a two legged pullback down to the current channel and odds favor the bulls to trade back up. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Bears are happy with stopping the advance and scalps. They took profits at new lows today and the market was barely red on the daily chart. I absolutely expect bears to come around big time again but just not right now. Can JPOW surprise the markets this week or can the market look for an excuse to sell it hard again? Sure. Is this more likely than a continuation up? No. Invalidation is above 5650. short term: max bullish above 5600. Below I turn neutral and wait. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling above 5635 was good multiple times but only for scalps tbh.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
GOLD slows down but the trend remains unchangedUS dollar falls to 7-month low and yen hits one-week high, Federal Reserve's Kashkari (hawkish) says he is optimistic about interest rate cuts, a a change from the official's stance in June. OANDA:XAUUSD Spots hit another record high on Monday, and although they later fell, a weaker US dollar and tensions in the Middle East limited the extent of the correction. TVC:DXY , which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, fell to 101.97 and touched 101.85, its lowest since January 2, on Monday's trading day. The market's focus will be on whether Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday indicates that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Another key focus will be whether Powell signals that a rate cut is possible at each meeting. Powell also may not be in a hurry to release details this week, as August employment and inflation data have yet to be released before the Fed's September meeting. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve, recently stated that he is open to cutting interest rates at the next meeting due to the growing possibility of excessive labor market weakness. This is a change from his stance in June. Kashkari said the discussion about cutting interest rates has changed because “inflation is progressing and the labor market is showing some worrying signs.” He believes there is no reason to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points because the layoff rate remains low and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is not showing a clear worsening trend. Geopolitically Russia's Investigative Committee announced on Monday that a bridge on the Sem river, which flows through the Kursk region, was destroyed in a Ukrainian attack. The Ukrainian military said the attack was aimed at disrupting Russian supply lines and making it more difficult to mobilize Russian troops and weapons. Later, Ukrainian President Zelensky elaborated on his goals, saying in his speech: "Now, the top priority in our overall defense operations is to destroy the as much of Russia's war potential as possible and carry out maximum counter-offensive operations. This includes establishing a buffer zone within Russia's territory." Hamas rejects the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East Hamas accused the US of "continuing the fight for Israel" after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted transitional proposals for a ceasefire in Gaza and called on Palestinian groups to do the same on one's own. However, Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan said the Palestinian group would only “agree to implement” Biden's UN Security Council-backed proposal, which was accepted last month. Medical sources said Israeli forces had killed at least 35 Palestinians in Gaza in the past 24 hours and Kamal Adwan Hospital warned that 11 children were at risk of death due to fuel shortages, which could lead to close the door. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After renewing its all-time peak, gold had certain but insignificant adjustments and maintained its price activity around the original price of 2,500 USD. In terms of structure on the daily chart, gold is still being supported for an uptrend with the main trend being noticed by the price channel and main support by EMA21. Meanwhile, the nearest support level is noticed in the area of ​​2,484 – 2,471 USD, sent to readers in the weekly publication. As long as gold remains above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level, it still has short-term bullish prospects. On the other hand, once gold maintains stability above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, it will tend to continue to increase for a period of time. new period and the target after that is about 2,544USD. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish. But traders also always need to be ready for strong and widespread fluctuations in the current market context. Notable price points are listed below. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,503 – 2,509 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2536 - 2534⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2540 →Take Profit 1 2529 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2524 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2474 - 2476⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2470 →Take Profit 1 2481 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2486
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#BTC USDT 1H TF analysis + Swing trade Setup x5 # hello TRADERS , hope you’re doing well this is our analysis of BTC in 1H TF BTC just reached an OB of a supply after making A market structure shift we expect price to drop bellow the equilirium area and target the main internal liquidity shown on the chart we may swing this position to target the main internal liq down bellow trade may go fast due to the news coming today ######### POSITION SETUP ######## recommended leverage: X3 ENTRY POINT :61298 SL:62762 TP:54470 ### Not financial advice disclaimer ### #You can use leverage at your own responsability and according to your risk management strategy ## remember to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research. always, trade with caution ## Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions Don’t forget to boost and support our Ideas to receive more Analysis #Make sure you follow and activate the notification to catch the move instantly If you have any questions, or any Coin to analyse you can write them in the comments section below. #####We are using LEET ALGORITHMIC CONCEPT (LAC) revolutionary new trading concept developed by LEET TRADERS COMMUNITY and based on the functioning of the most powerful HIGH frequency trading algorithms very high accuracy, No psychological factor or stress, the only rule is to follow the steps of straight to the target Join US!! ********* WAKE-UP NEO =) follow the white rabbit********
Short
by LEETRADERS
2024-08-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - That reversal is something you will not witness often while you are alive. I don’t think there are many arguments beside’s “short squeeze” that could produce such a violent move but then again, who cares why. In my weekly outlook I wrote that I can only be neutral going into this week and all was looking decent until US opened and market almost went up again in a straight line. At this point I am fairly certain that in the next 2-6 weeks you will read about funds closing because they got caught so hard on this. Train is not stopping so look for decent entries when market refuses to go down again and ride the big wave up. dax futures comment: I wrote that best for bulls would be to stay above 18000 on a pullback and a measured move could bring us to 18800. Market can’t trade below the 1h 20ema and bulls are just unreal currently. Only look for longs until bears can do a 1h bar close below the 1h ema. Next targets above are 18800 and then 19000. Insane strength. current market cycle: huge trading range key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Bulls are just in a big hurry without any bears around. Must pump the market as fast as high as it can get. Please don’t look for macro reasons here, you are out of your mind if you try to come up with rational arguments. Just find an ema that is holding and long it. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Nothing. When bears manage to print a bar close below the 1h 20ema, I will look for bearish targets. As of now it’s 18400 they have to conquer but who on earth would short this right now. Unless we get a huge event and scared traders, this won’t stop until new ath is reached. Small chance we see a bigger pullback on the big bear trend line around 18750. Invalidation is above 19000. short term: max bullish - only look for longs until bears print a bar close below the 1h 20ema medium-long term: 17000/17100 was my target for at least 3 months now and bears got it. We are in a correction since we dropped more than 10% from the ath. Many long term trader buy a 5%, 10%, … dip and a bounce here was expected. I do think we are in a bear trend which will most likely lead down to 15600 or 15000 over the next months but we can only be more certain, once this pullback is done and we make new lows below 17000 and have a channel from which we can calculate new targets. I called the highs in early July and there is a decent chance we will not see them for a long time. —unchanged since early July current swing trade: Nopety nope nope. Only long scalps currently. trade of the day: Long EU open and never look at it until US close. Doji at the 1h 20ema, so go long above it. There were two decent targets above, gap close to Friday and last weeks high. Both are magnets, no reason to exit anywhere. When in doubt, zoom out.
EUREX:FDXSU2024Long
by priceactiontds
2024-08-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Bear channel continued down and next target is probably 72 if 73.5 won’t hold. Pure weakness in this market. quote from my weekly update: bear case: Bears need a daily close below 74.5 to trade back down to 71/72. comment: Look at that beauty of a channel. Holding like a true champ. Market is much weaker than expected and only going down. Bottom of the channel is where a pullback is expected and if bears are strong, they keep it below 74.5. Next targets for the bears are 73 and then 72. Anything above 75.5 would be a big surprise. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 72 - 75.5 bull case: Bulls are so weak that they currently can only correct sideways. They need to create a pullback at 73.4 or risk a breakout below the bear channel, where the selling would accelerate. A reasonable target for a pullback would be the breakout retest of last weeks low 74.52. Invalidation is below 73.1. bear case: Bears had a strong bear day again and a measured move would bring us to 71.5. If they manage to create a breakout below the bear channel, we could get there much faster than most expect. My drawn big bullish trend line from the triangle runs through 71.7, so close enough. Bears need to keep any pullback below 75, better would be below 74.5. Invalidation is above 75.5. short term: Pullback to at least 74.5 is expected but below 73.1 we print 72 or even 71 pretty fast. medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Mostly sideways during Globex and EU session. US session opened weak and when bulls could not get above 75.5 again, bears tried again and bulls just gave up. Had to be short since the bear bar breaking below 75 and the 1h 20ema.
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by priceactiontds
WTI has a lot of technical pressureTVC:USOIL weakened in early trading in Asian markets on Monday (August 19), fluctuating near its lowest level in more than a week. Currently WTI crude oil is trading around 75 USD/barrel. That added to traders' concerns about falling demand in the Asian giant, where refiners cut crude processing capacity last month amid sluggish fuel demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) last week lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year due to weakness in the Asian giant's economy. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) last Tuesday lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing weak demand from major countries in Asia. On the other hand, according to the Lebanese National News Agency, the Israel Defense Forces carried out airstrikes on the 18th. Lebanon's Hezbollah armed forces claimed to have attacked multiple targets in southern Lebanon, including Israeli military spy facilities. On the 18th, the Israeli army launched multiple attacks on several towns on the Lebanese side of the temporary border between Lebanon and Israel. Market sentiment this week will be determined by speeches from global central bankers at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will be held from August 22 to 24 and Fed Chairman Powell will speak on the economic outlook on Friday as US inflation weakens but remains difficult and markets Weakened job market. Easing is imminent, but is unlikely to confirm continued expectations of significant interest rate cuts. On the daily chart, WTI USOIL moved narrowly after falling below the price channel and structurally it has not yet formed a specific trend. But technical factors are leaning more towards the possibility of price decline with the nearest resistance being noticed at the confluence area of ​​the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement and EMA21. As long as WTI crude oil cannot break and move above the 0.50% Fibonacci level, it does not have enough conditions for bullish expectations. Meanwhile, once WTI crude oil continues to be sold below the 0.236% Fibonacci level and returns to the price channel, it will open a new technical down cycle. The notable point is that the Relative Strength Index is pointing down from the 50 level but has not yet reached the oversold level, showing that there is still room for technical price declines ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil leans towards a downside with notable levels listed as follows. Support: 75.71USD Resistance: 76.59 – 77.58USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
All-time high, GOLD prospects continue to increaseThe market fluctuated wildly in the past week, OANDA:XAUUSD skyrocketed from the week's low of 2,423USD to the weekend closing price of 2,508USD/oz and set a new all-time high. However, Iran could retaliate and attack Israel next week. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole is a market highlight that could once again cause volatility. Next week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole. The focus will be on Friday, when Powell gives a keynote speech on the economic outlook. First, they want confirmation that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. But as the Fed faces risks to both inflation and employment through recent macro data, the next move and the pace The next rate cut will become more complicated and of course this will bring even more intense fluctuations in the market in general and gold trading in particular. The US economic calendar will not release any important data in the first half of next week. Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July 30-31 meeting. At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Powell admitted there was “real discussion” about tapering interest rate at the July meeting. Investors will pay attention to comments surrounding interest rate cut discussions. If the minutes show some policymakers favor a sudden rate cut in July, the USD could face fresh selling pressure and gold continues to be supported and pushed to renew levels. all time. At the Jackson Hole meeting, even if Powell confirms a rate cut in September, it is unlikely to trigger a market reaction because such a decision is already fully priced in. In what could be a shock to markets, Powell will likely dismiss market expectations that the Fed could cut policy rates by 50 basis points at a future meeting, noting that they could will loosen policy at a steady pace. In this scenario, US Treasury bond yields could rise higher, putting gold prices under pressure to adjust in the short term. Powell will likely use his speech in Jackson Hole to announce that the 'appropriate' time to cut interest rates is approaching. With the support of the approaching interest rate cut environment and the increasingly complicated geopolitical developments and successive escalating moves, basically, the gold price is being absolutely supported by investors. increasing trend. This has been mostly noticed by readers throughout the publications since the beginning of this year, all macro fundamentals will support gold to continue to increase in price, as it is a safe haven asset. leading in all cases of risk or monetary policy that does not support the USD. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD With outstanding strength from all fundamental factors, gold's technical chart also has all the important conditions necessary for an upward price trend. The main trend is highlighted by the price channel and support from EMA21, which was brought to your attention in recent publications. On the other hand, gold has rallied to break the plateau and stay above the $2,500 level after achieving last week's upside price target in the $2,500 - $2,505 area. The fact that gold closed above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension allows gold to continue to increase in price towards $2,544 in the short term when the Relative Strength Index points up but has not yet reached the overbought level. shows that there is still wide room for price increases ahead. However, in the current market context, traders must be ready for huge fluctuations, when gold can also face strong correction sessions with the nearest support being the The previous all-time peak was broken at 2,484 USD. In the coming time, gold will continue to have the main trend of increasing prices with notable technical levels that will be listed as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,544USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2541 - 2539 ⚰️SL: 2545 ⬆️TP1: 2534 ⬆️TP2: 2529 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2474 - 2476 ⚰️SL: 2470 ⬆️TP1: 2481 ⬆️TP2: 2486
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Easy analysis. We are 4 points above last weeks close. We are in a triangle and exactly at the midpoint, again. Market is as neutral as it gets. Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. Either buy low and sell high inside given range or wait for a breakout. comment: Bulls got a new ath but the highest monthly close so far was 2473 and there is no reason to expect a huge breakout above 2550 with follow through. If it happens, hopp along but odds favor the bears for another reversal like so many times in the last 4 months. No matter how you interpret the patterns on the chart, all favor a reversal and betting on a breakout after 4 months of trading range price action is a losing strategy in the long run. I am neutral and wait for bears to show strength but will join the bulls on a strong breakout above 2550. current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged key levels: 2400 - 2550 bull case: Bulls printed a new ath. They finally want their breakout above and much higher prices. All patterns are against them and the odds obviously also. I would not look for longs above 2500. If they could break above 2550 and any pullback would stay above 2530, their chances of another leg up would be decent. Invalidation is below 2550. bear case: Bears see the trading range since April and the nested bull wedge on lower time frames and want a reversal down to at least 2430 again. They absolutely need to close this month below 2500 or the breakout above could actually happen and market would have to find new resistance, which could be much much higher than 2550. As of now market is almost making only perfect two legged moves inside the trading range and bulls just had their second. Market favors a reversal if bears come around on Monday. Invalidation is above 2550. outlook last week: short term: Neutral around 2475. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. Want to see 2500 to look for shorts again. → Last Sunday we traded 2473 and now we are at 2537. Neutral outlook. short term: Neutral until bears come around or strong break above 2550. If bears build good selling pressure, I want a retest of 2500 first and lower i look for 2470. medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed the bear trend line.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment: Market got to 5100 way faster than I expected but it was climactic selling and a pullback was expected. Not much difference in reasoning compared to dax and the same would apply to the nasdaq. Market is trying to find the big sellers again and we are probing higher. We will most likely hit the daily 20ema soon, which is around 5440 and that is also around the July low and therefore a breakout retest. After the 2 bull bars from Thursday & Friday, I do think the odds of disappointment for the bulls is greater than another bull bar on Monday. comment: Not much difference to dax, just that this market was a tat stronger even. Bulls almost reversed completely but 7 consecutive bull bars is as climactic as it gets. A pullback is due but that does not mean you can short it at 5578. Could go further since the obvious pain trade is up. current market cycle: Trading range. key levels: 5000-5700 bull case: From panic to euphoria. Good times. Bulls want a close of the bear gap to 5650 now and if they manage that, no reason we can’t print a new ath. More likely though is that we stay below 5600 and go much more sideways and wait for a new impulse. Invalidation is below 5400. bear case: Bears are gone it seems. Best they can hope for now is to stay below 5600 and make the market go sideways. If big sellers appear again, first target would be 5500 and then a close below daily ema but that is very low probability as of now. No bigger update this week since parallels to dax are big and I do think it’s best to be neutral here and wait for a pullback and see where that goes. Invalidation is above 5650. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode if we stay below the daily ema. Retest of the lows is higher probability than breaking above the daily ema. I gave clear key levels, mark them and watch what the market does when it gets there. → Last Sunday we traded 5370 and now we are at 5578. My upper targets were 5450 and bulls just melted it. Part of outlook was ok because you don’t get bearish at climactic selling lows but this reversal is not anything that is likely to happen after such selling. short term: Neutral af. Want to see a pullback and also how market reacts to 5600. medium-long term: Same as dax. I wait and let market give more info. Right now it’s max confusion. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed all but the small bear gap.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#202434 - priceactiontds - weekly updateGood Evening and I hope you are well. Quote from last week: comment : Above pretty much described exactly what happened last week and for now all my bearish targets are met. I still expect another test of the lows. These tests can be higher,lower or pretty much the same. You never ever know in advance and you have to trade it as it comes. After that retest we will likely see another pullback to the 20ema or previous pullback highs (right now 17862) and more sideways movement inside the current range. It’s always an obvious pattern that we get another strong leg in the trend direction, when the daily 20ema is close enough or we hit it 1-3 times. Going into next week I am absolutely neutral and I think 17700-17900 is a dead zone for trading. Want to see strong momentum in either direction for me to scalp. comment: Breaking above the wedge bear flag after a -8% move is a low probability event but that’s what happened. Bulls are under the most recent bear trend line starting mid July and there is no reason why this should hold when all other technical resistance prices did not hold in the last 2 weeks. It sure looks like a cup where the handle is missing but after such wild moves, I will only ever be neutral and take the market hour by hour. current market cycle: Big nope of that bear trend take last week. Trading range price action with a big range. key levels: 17000 - 19000 bull case: Last Sunday I wrote about mostly overlapping bars for the bulls and since Thursday they left no doubt that this was not the start of the bear trend. Huge bull breakout above the previous bear gap to 18200 and they are not right at the minor bear trend line from mid July. If bulls are really strong, they can get a third push up and maybe a measured move from Thu/Fri which would bring us to 18800ish. The buying is climactic though and a pullback is expected over the next 1-2 days. Best for bulls would be if they would stay above 18000 and the daily ema/bull trend line. Invalidation is below 17900. bear case: 18000 was my target last week where we should reverse at latest and bulls just melted through it to 18400. Most traders knew the selling down to 17100 was climactic and a pullback was expected but most markets almost reversed all of it and dax is also on it’s way. Where does this leave the bears? Humbled to say the least. They are focussing on the two bear trend lines above us at 18430 and the big one from the ath at 18650. So my preferred path forward would look like the drawn bullish 5 wave series where we can expect some pullback over the next 1-2 days and a potential W5 to 18650 or higher but it is very possible that we stay below 18500 and trade back down. Invalidation is above 18450. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode. Pullback has two sided trading and I think a test below 17500 comes before 18000 but after a low, we should see another try from the bulls to print 18000 again or touch the daily 20ema. At which I will load up on shorts again, if we see bear strength. → Well, at least I wrote multiple times that a pullback could get to 18000 but since the bulls were just too strong on Thursday, I did not look for shorts as written last Sunday. Part of my outlook was ok but overall bearish reading was obviously as wrong as can be. short term: Absolutely neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. medium-long term: Bearishness from the last weeks was wrong. Need to see price action this and maybe the week after to take another shot of an medium term outlook. Long term is still maximum bearishness but that does not help with trading because an early trade is a wrong trade. current swing trade: Nope. chart update: Removed the bear gap, wedge bear flag and added a potential 5 wave series and an alternative two legged correction.
EUREX:FDXSU2024
by priceactiontds