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GOLD recovers, fueled by trade risks as key support Influenced by US President Trump's imposition of new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and the doubling of tariffs on Chinese goods, the situation has raised fears of a global trade war. OANDA:XAUUSD found support after fresh tariff concerns and rebounded to target $2,900 and above it the momentum is waning. Trump's tariff policy continues to boost inflation expectations while weakening economic growth expectations, and real yields continue to decline. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will have an important impact on the market. If data shows rising inflation, gold prices could fall as the market may reduce expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recently, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year, up from 44 basis points last week. Trump's tariff action, which could affect nearly $2.2 trillion in annual US two-way trade with China, takes effect at 12:00 Hanoi time on Tuesday. China responded immediately by imposing additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain US imports effective March 10 and imposing a series of new export restrictions on certain designated US entities, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa will immediately apply a 25% tariff on $20.7 billion worth of US goods. JPMorgan said it has a structurally long-term bullish view on gold and expects gold prices to reach $3,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. Trump's tariffs are considered inflationary and have prompted many investors to move money into the safe-haven gold, which has risen more than 10% this year. However, higher inflation in the United States could force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for longer, which could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Markets await the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for more information on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved the $2,900 target gain readers noticed in previous editions since it reached support at $2,835. Temporarily, the recovery momentum is weakening but maintaining price activity above the original price level of $2,900 is considered a positive signal for continued upside, and the next target is $2,942 in the short term, more than the all-time high of $2,956. The interim relative strength index is also showing signs of reacting to the 61 resistance level, a continued break towards the overbought area would be a positive signal for bullish expectations in terms of momentum. During the day, gold's price recovery prospects and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,942 – 2,956USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2945 →Take Profit 1 2933 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2927 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2884 - 2886⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2880 →Take Profit 1 2892 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2898
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2025-03-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very strong selling followed by very strong buying but bears defended where they had to. Another one for the 50% retracement if you go from ath down to 22348, the 50% is around 22849 and market stopped the bounce pretty much there. Now we have a big gap up from 22357 up to 22707 but I doubt this will stay open. My bias is bearish with stop 23091 but for now we can’t expect market to drop below 22300 since the buying down there was so strong. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22000 - 23351 bull case: Bulls reversed 78.6% of the selling almost to the tick. I let you figure out which glorified pattern that is. I do not care about them nearly as much as others. I only care about the 50% and then maybe 30% or 60% to determine how strong the pullback is. Bulls showed strength by rallying for 500+ points and that naturally makes me think the downside is limited for now. Problem for them is, the rejection from 22351 on Monday was so strong that they likely won’t buy high again and wait for pullbacks. Since bears also showed strength, we will likely continue sideways. Bulls need something above 23091 to retest 23355 or go higher. Invalidation is below 22300. bear case: Bears had an amazing small-pullback-bear-trend but bulls bought heavily the lows on the news that the EU will do a new fund and Germany will also likely do new debt to finance defense and infrastructure stuff. Does it matter? Not really. Clear descending triangle for us to trade until we make higher highs or lower lows. We are above the 50% of it and I favor the bears to retest at least 22400 tomorrow. So shorts close to 22800 are reasonable. Bears also have going for them, that lately not-bad news got bought but then reversed to the downside, which I believe suits the sell-the-rip market we could be in. US indexes will likely have more downside over the next weeks, since this whole move down could be seen as a bigger W1 on the weekly chart for sp500 and nasdaq. Dax will follow them, just takes a bit more time I guess. Plan for this week is still to hit 22000 and then some strong moves down to 21000 over the next 1-2 weeks. Invalidation is above 23091. short term: Neutral around 22700. Bearish above 22800 and bullish below 22450. Strong moves to both sides will likely result in sideways movement and not a strong breakout to either side. My thesis is still that Monday was a higher high major trend reversal and we could have seen the highs. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Small pullback bear trend from EU open 22955 down to 22357. It was so strong, you had to be short. 5m 20ema held like a champ. 22350 was previous support and once market stopped making new lows, bears needed to reduce risk and take profits. Could you have anticipated that the bounce would be good for 500+ points? Hell no. If you took a long, good for you. To make a living from trading you don’t have to be perfect or amazing, you just have to be good and that meant, taking reasonable profits on shorts and not watching them disappear on the bounce.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD approaching 2,900USD, conditions for correction endOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery remains high after yesterday's strong increase and the current gold price is at about 2,887 USD ounce, equivalent to a decrease of 0.20% on the day, limited by the lower edge of the technical price channel and the EMA21. Geopolitical tensions and impending tariffs have boosted gold prices. Gold prices continue to rise again, but no other price increases have been confirmed yet. Spot gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday, recovering from a three-week low hit in last week's final trading session, as a weaker U.S. dollar and U.S. President Trump's tariff policies spurred safe-haven buying. On Monday local time, US President Trump said at a press conference that the US would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4 and said there was no room for negotiations with these two US allies. Additionally, the US government announced it will impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US starting March 4, citing fentanyl and other issues. Mr. Trump also said on Monday that the United States would impose "reciprocal tariffs" starting April 2 and would impose tariffs on countries that devalue their currencies as sanctions. In addition, Trump said on social networks that the United States will impose tariffs on "foreign" agricultural products from April 2. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After recovering from the support area noticed by readers in the previous issue at the area of ​​2,850 - 2,835 USD, gold has achieved the first target level at 2,880 USD and then approached the next target level at the original price point of 2,900 USD. It is also limited by the original price point of 2,900 USD when this is also the confluence of the lower edge of the price channel and EMA21. Once gold breaks the $2,900 level and trades above it, it will be primed to continue rising, marking the end of the downward correction with a target then $2,942 in the short term, more than the location of the all-time peak. The relative strength index is also receiving support from the 50 level, if bullish momentum takes it back above the 60 level, this will be a positive signal for gold price upside on the technical chart. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is recovery with the condition of ending the above adjustment cycle, notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,880 – 2,868USD Resistance: 2,900 – 2,942USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2921 - 2919⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2925 →Take Profit 1 2913 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2907 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2858 - 2860⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2854 →Take Profit 1 2866 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2872
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
2
NASDAQ: Bearish Engulfing PatternWhat is a bearish engulfing? A bearish engulfing pattern, which is a technical chart pattern that indicates that lower prices are on the way. The pattern consists of an up candlestick (white or green) followed by a big down candlestick (black or red) that eclipses or "engulfs" the smaller up candle. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature. and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
GOLD suffered a fierce sell-off, the US Dollar was strongerOANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to endure a fierce sell-off fueled by market profit-taking and a stronger US dollar, the US Dollar Index rose to a 10-day high on Friday of 107.66 amid concerns about US trade policy and data that raised fears of a recession. US President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs will be imposed on Mexican and Canadian products next week, March 4. This increases market uncertainty. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said Canada does not want to get into a trade war with the United States, but if the United States imposes tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, Canada "will immediately have an extremely strong response." Bloomberg said currency traders bought the dollar after US President Trump confirmed he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week. On Friday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model predicted that U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 would be -1.5%, compared with a previous forecast of 2.3%. The US Dollar was boosted after the data was released due to concerns about an economic recession. OANDA:XAUUSD fell to lows in early New York trading on Friday as Wall Street's major indexes opened weak as investors remained cautious about the potential for price pressure from President Trump's policies. As US PCE inflation data was in line with expectations, the data suggested the Federal Reserve may be more cautious in cutting interest rates, which helped the dollar remain at a two-week high. The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in January, in line with expectations. The overall PCE price index in the United States increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-over-year in January, also in line with expectations. However, “personally” believes that PCE data does not significantly change Fed price expectations, so it essentially has a small impact on gold prices. Spot gold prices fell 2.7% in the past trading week, the largest weekly decline since November last year. Next, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), (ADP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will become important market data. If inflation data rises too high, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in gold, and the opposite effect if slowing inflation data stimulates market bets on the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. Of course, further analysis of the above data will be sent to readers in daily publications. Economic data to watch next week Monday: Euro Flash CPI Estimates, US ISM Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: ADP jobs report; ISM US Services PMI Thursday: European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision, US Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: US nonfarm payrolls. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD In addition, investors will also pay attention to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision, which could have an impact on gold prices next week. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again next week, which could partially support the USD, thereby negatively impacting gold prices next week. With its current position, gold does not have enough conditions to continue falling in price as long as gold maintains price activity above 2,835 USD and Fibonacci retracement of 0.382%, along with the Relative Strength Index above 50. On the other hand, a confirmation signal for gold price to end the downward correction cycle is price activity returning to the price channel. However, traders also need to be careful as a new bearish cycle will open up once RSI goes below 50, the price chart is sold below 2,814 USD, so protective positions should be placed behind 2,814 USD. In the short term, gold is still in a downward correction cycle and the notable points will be listed as follows. As for "personally", I continue to defend the view that declines are only short-term corrections and not a sustainable trend, declines can also be considered an opportunity to buy. Support: 2,835 – 2,814USD Resistance: 2,868 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2896 - 2894⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2888 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2882 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2819 - 2821⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2815 →Take Profit 1 2827 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2833
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-03-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 791 points from low to high today. The selling stopped exactly at the 50% retracement and this is the line in the sand for my outlook. We have two very big patterns now possible. We either melt much higher to 23800+ or we do a proper correction like the US markets but we very likely won’t continue sideways around 23000. current market cycle: bull trend until trend line is broken (daily close below 22300) key levels: 22500 - 24000 bull case: Bulls are likely in do or die mode. They melted higher but if they can’t stay above the important breakout price 23000, this could become a bull trap/higher high - major trend reversal and we go down from here. If we stay above and correct sideways some around 23000, we will likely retest 23350 tomorrow and could get a second leg up to 23800+. The bull channel is valid until broken, so respect it. Invalidation is below 22900. bear case: Bears need to break below the bull channel around 22300. Everything else is just neutral, since we are in such a strong bull trend. They have to stop new highs or we continue up. What are the odds that today was a climactic bull trap at the end of this bull trend? I don’t know right now but I have given my invalidation prices, so mark them and look what the market does when we get there. My wave thesis was already done at the previous 23k but we can obviously have another break above and another rally higher. Market is beyond overvalued but who cares if it’s only going up. I start favoring the bears if we can get below 22900 because then the odds that the highs are in become much bigger. Invalidation is above 23400. short term: Neutral around 23k. Bearish below 22900 for more downside to potentially 22300 again but this is much lower probability. Bulls are favored to retest 23350 or get another leg higher. medium-long term from 2024-02-26: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. Daily close below 22000 is needed to turn this neutral and end the bull trend-. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long below 22600. Market found no acceptance there and the gap to Friday’s close stayed open. Congratulations if you took it and banked 600+ points.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
ES Futures & Macro Trends: Key Levels and Market ScenariosCME_MINI:ES1! Macro and Geopolitics: There was continued news flow over the weekend after derailed talks between Trump and Zelensky. Europe, UK and Saudi Arabia are still pushing for a Russia-US-Ukraine peace deal that will likely include rare earth minerals. We also heard Trump commenting on an executive order on digital assets strategic reserves helping reverse losses in CME BTC futures. Investors see this as a positive development prior to the upcoming Crypto Summit in Washington on March 7th. US March 4th tariff deadlines loom for Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump repeated America's first stance commenting that border security and stopping illegal drug trades should be America’s prime focus. Economic Calendar: Looking ahead this week, key economic events include manufacturing PMI data on Monday, employment and services data midweek, and major central bank decisions and labor market reports toward the end of the week. Here’s a breakdown of important releases: Monday: Manufacturing PMI data release Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Services PMI Crude Oil Inventories Thursday: European Central Bank (ECB): Interest rate decision & monetary policy statement U.S. Data: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Jobless Claims U.S. Trade Balance January 2025 Imports & Exports data Friday: U.S. Employment Data: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report Average Hourly Earnings Unemployment Rate Federal Reserve Speakers: Bowman & Powell scheduled to speak ES Big Picture: Despite increased volatility and risks mounting, looking at the daily chart shows that ES futures are still within range and trading above Nov 4th, 2024 and January 13th, 2025 low, however, 2025 mcVAH and R1 confluence has been acting as strong resistance and keeping the markets from reaching new all-time highs. Despite the risks, our analysis suggests that with the U.S. economy showing resilience, a "buy the dip" approach remains favorable. However, staying selective and strategic with opportunities is key to balancing risk and reward. Key Levels: Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. 2025 VAH: 6,150 2025 VPOC: 6,133.75 LVN: 6,113.25 Neutral Zone: 6,000 - 6,015 2025 VAL: 5,972.50 LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.50 Neutral Zone: 5,916.50 - 5,927.25 Feb 2025 Low: 5,848 Jan 2025 Low: 5,809 Scenario 1: Range bound week Market remains volatile, however, within the neutral zone below key LIS/yearly open and neutral zone above Key LIS/yearly open. Scenario 2: Weak data points slowing economy Worsening economic data points along with progress in Ukraine- US minerals deal points towards further buying. Weaker data points may provide room for further rate cuts should economic weakening further materialize. Scenario 3: Mounting risks and weaker economic data On the contrary, mounting risk and weaker economic data may point towards stagflation as inflation remains sticky while the economy weakens. This provides room for further decline in ES futures.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.02 - 03.07.25Last Week : Globex opened above VAH of 6054 - 5933 HTF Range and February RTH Cost basis which gave a hold to start the week to push us into the above Edge but more strength didn't come in, instead we ended up holding under 6074 - 60s and closer to Monday RTH open price failed in the Edge giving us a move into lower Value with a close inside it. Holding under Cost Basis meant weakness for longer term buyers and triggered moves lower all week as they needed to get out closer to month end we got. Lower Edge kept giving bounces back into Value which kept building more supply and when MM Month end came on Thursday we were able to take the stops under 5930 to give us continuation to test lower Value under 5870s. To finish the week we found buying inside lower Value and what I think was end of the Week short covering before the weekend which pushed us back into the Edge in the afternoon, all momentum traders had to do was buy it up under the Edge to push price back inside which triggered stops on the way up to give us end of day squeeze back into above VAL where all the supply was. This Week : We are starting a new Month and things can be tricky to start, we are at interesting locations on Weekly, Daily and Hourly charts with quite a few options going into this week so we really have to be open to different scenarios as things are not as clear as they were last 2 weeks going into Month End. On Daily TF we have showed a failure over Daily Edge Top and at the same time have transitioned into a correction mode under it which gave us the move from Daily Edge into Daily VAH at 987 - 67 and flushed the buyers under it through Daily Mean towards Daily VAL at 846 - 28 without tagging it. End of week covering took us back into Daily VAH but left Daily TF in Correction mode under its MAs. On Weekly TF we had a long consolidation in new Weekly balance over 5950s but we never transacted through the whole balance which means no acceptance in it, instead we built up a lot of Supply inside which at the end of the Month gave us this move back into lower Balance with a strong break and close under smaller MA with price closing right at the top/bottom ( depends which way we look at it ) of Weekly Balance. For now this tells us that we could see more weakness going into this new Month, as long as we hold under Weekly Smaller MA which is around 6010s and don't accept back above Daily VAH of 5987 - 67 then that could bring in continued weakness to rotate lower back towards Daily Mean and possibly test Daily VAL and maybe see a push under it. Holding under the Daily Edge of 6073 - 43 implies continued weakness as well and will continue to target lower Daily areas all the way down into its bottom Daily Edge at 5754 - 24 which has Weak Stops and a Gap to fill under which was made during contract roll. Does not mean we will go there right away or go there at all of course BUT there are lots of things stacked up for more downside so far, of course we have to watch each area for continuation through but if there is still more sell volume to come out then we have to watch out looking for much higher prices from here and instead look for balances with weakness and rotations back down. This week could play out as an inside week with weakness towards the bottom of previous week and IF there will be stronger volume then we could see last weeks lows get taken to give us pushes towards Previous Distribution Balance that we have made back in October which would be next big spot to visit. On the Upside IF buying from Friday sticks and we start holding over 5930 - 40s then need to be careful forcing downside as we could build up enough and bring in more buying to push into above Value again, we do have trapped buyers inside it from last week so it would be a spot to be careful at as we could continue to see selling out of that Value on any pushes into it, for more strength inside that Value we would really need to push through VAL and start holding over 5970 - 90s which would signal stability and could have the price balance inside that Value and of course for anything higher we would need to take out February RTH cost basis above VAH because we have most of the buying from last few months trapped over it.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Very erratic price action the past week. Monday and Tuesday closed below the mid point of the daily range, just to have a 2% up day on Wednesday, followed by retest of the lows and closing almost exactly at the middle of it all. Bulls keep making money buying the dips and bears are not strong enough to even get to 22000. Can only expect more sideways price action inside the triangle. If anything I’d say the bulls are favored to retest 23k since we are staying at these highs and above the daily 20ema. current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000 key levels: 22000 - 23000 bull case: Not much changed to last week since we have only made lower highs and higher lows. Bulls want to retest 23k and since they are producing prominent tails below the bars that dip below 22300, they are slightly favored vs bears that hope for a test of 22000. 22500/22600 is the middle of this range and the worst place to trade. If bulls come out strongly on Monday, I will heavily favor them to trade up to at least 22700. I have no opinion on targets above 23k. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears finding no acceptance below 22400 and Friday has touched the daily 20ema and reversed strongly. They can not hold short if we continue above 22550 because we could easily do 22700 or 23000. Only question for me is, do they try to force another lower high and continue with the contraction or could we retest 23k and maybe then some? I don’t know and if anything I favor the bulls since the bears are just not doing anything strong besides that one Wednesday where we sold 569 points. Targets for bears remain the same. Daily close below 22300 and below the daily ema and bull trend line opens op possibility for 22000. Zero doubt that we will see a bounce at that price. I don’t see this dropping meaningfully unless we get some really really bad news. Technically it’s clear as day that only bulls making the easy points. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral around 22500/22600 and only interested in strong momentum trades. Shorts above 22700 and longs below 22400. Play the triangle until clearly broken. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed previous bull channel and added triangle.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: My line in the sand for bears was 20600 and bears actually got there but the very bullish close on Friday destroyed many bear hopes. Biggest question for Monday is now, does the bear channel hold or will we strongly break above to test the highs again? I don’t know and that’s when I will lean neutral. Both sides have reasonable arguments and the bear channel is valid until clearly broken but Friday’s close was special. 20900 is probably a bad place to trade and I will be cautious on Monday. There are multiple bigger patterns we are currently in. Most recent is the tight bear channel down from last week, which would be broken above 21100. Then we are also inside an expanding triangle on the daily tf where the upper trend lines goes through the ath 22450. On the weekly tf I have two bull trend lines and both could be right or wrong, you never know. The lower one runs a bit below 20000 and that is obviously a magnet market will test over the next days or weeks but I have no idea if we do another leg up first. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 22500 bull case: Bulls have probably seen enough selling and Friday’s close showed some strength that they want more exposure again. Their first target is 21000 and then break above the bear channel from last week, which would be above 21100ish. Next targets are then the mid point around 21500 and then likely no more resistance until 22000. Bullish ABC move on the chart, which would be my preferred path if we close above 21200 on Monday. Invalidation is below 20400. bear case: Bears want to see this as a W1 and get at least another strong leg down or even a third one. What are the odds of that? The last strong selling we had was 2024-07 where nq dropped for 16% over 5 weeks. So a long time ago where we did not correct for 10% or more. Right now we are down 8% in two weeks, which is the strongest selling we have seen in the past 7 months. Bears certainly would have a bit more room to the downside to touch 20000 or a bit lower to hit the bull trend line around 19800 (depending on how you draw it). I’m just having a really hard time believing this is more likely than a trade back up to at least 21500 since we are still inside the bull trend and two weeks ago we were 130 points below the ath. An expanding triangle is likely the more dominating feature for now. Every dip below 21000 has been bought and selling here has not been profitable for the past 2 months. Invalidation is above 21100. short term: Neutral. Tough spot. Bears could want more downside since the bear channel is still active until we break above 21100. Bulls see the expanding triangle and two weeks of selling with -8% was enough for them to strongly buy into Friday’s close. If 20k is now resistance, I’d like to short with a stop 21410 for target 20500 or lower. If bulls come out strongly early tomorrow, the 4h ema + bear channel could break and we would likely test the highs above 22000 again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. current swing trade: None chart update: Added possible paths for both sides. There is a very low chance that the past 2 weeks were the W1 of a very strong 5-wave series down but until we see daily closes below 20000, I have zero confidence in this.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202509 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 300 point range last week and we closed near the middle of it. Bulls buy new lows and bears sell every rip close or above the 4h 20ema. Bear channel is still valid but it’s getting weaker. We have also touched my bull trend line from 2024-09 and market has formed a triangle with a nested bear wedge. No big moves, both sides make money. So either scalp the range or don’t look at this. Update after crypto reserve news spike: Bear channel could still hold and if it does, the move down will be even more violent because of so many new trapped traders. Above 97k the bear channel is dead and we continue sideways inside the previous range 90k - 110k. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 68 - 72 bull case: Bulls have to be content with buying new lows and scalping a couple of points. Every rip is sold and they just can’t catch a break. Until they have a daily close above 72 again, there is nothing going for them. Sure they keep new lows shallow and the bear trend is getting weaker but that does not help any bull if they don’t make higher highs again. Very low chance that bulls see this as a very broad bull channel where this leg down was a test of the breakout price 70. If you look at a weekly chart, we are still making higher lows and higher highs. Invalidation is below 67.8. bear case: Bears fear that the bull trend line from September is bigger support and the bear trend is getting weaker. That is likely a reason why we will probably see more sideways movement now and less new lows. Bears are still favored until we have higher highs above 72 again. Shorts below 71 are bad, no matter how you put it. Invalidation is above 72. short term: Neutral. Shorts close or above 71 are fine and longs below 69. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: Bear trend is getting weaker but I still see this going sideways around 70 instead of a range expansion. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated bear channel.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 03 - March 07]OANDA:XAUUSD this week were under pressure to take profits. After opening this week at 2,934 USD/oz, gold prices rose to 2,956 USD/oz, but then continuously dropped to 2,832 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,858 USD/oz. Thus, gold prices this week dropped sharply after 8 consecutive weeks of increases. The reason why gold prices dropped sharply this week is because the USD continued to increase strongly compared to many other major currencies. Market sentiment changed slightly after the US announced the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) for January 2025. Accordingly, PCE increased by 2.5% over the same period last year, thus down from 2.6% in December 2024 and in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, core PCE, excluding fluctuating food and energy prices, also increased 2.6% year-on-year, but down from 2.9% in December 2024 and in line with forecasts. Notably, in the recent meeting, US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had many disagreements and could not reach any agreement to contribute to an early end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. This is a factor that may increase gold's role as a haven, but it is unlikely to push gold prices up sharply next week, perhaps just a slight recovery before adjusting again. There will be a lot of data released next week, but the US February non-farm payrolls (NFP) report will be of particular interest to investors. According to forecasts, NFP is expected to reach 156,000 jobs, compared to 143,000 jobs in January. If NFP reaches the forecast level, it will not affect the Fed's interest rate policy direction, unless NFP increases far beyond the threshold of 200,000 jobs. Therefore, NFP news is likely to have little impact on gold prices next week. In addition, investors will also pay attention to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision, which could have an impact on gold prices next week. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again next week, which could partially support the USD, thereby negatively impacting gold prices next week. 🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Next week, the market will focus on jobs data, with the US February non-farm payrolls report released on Friday morning. Other key economic events include the Eurozone FMCG and US ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, the ADP jobs report and US ISM services PMI on Wednesday, and weekly unemployment data on Thursday. The other big event of the week is the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision on Thursday, with many experts expecting the ECB to make another interest rate cut. 📌Technically, gold prices next week may continue to adjust, with the level of 2,790 USD/oz being an important support level. If next week's gold price stays above this level, it will increase slightly to 2,900 USD/oz. On the contrary, if gold prices fall below 2,790 USD/oz next week, there is a risk of a deeper correction. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,814 – 2,835USD Resistance: 2,900 – 2,868USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2955 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2739 - 2741⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2735
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 24 - Feb 28]OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase for the 8th consecutive week, marking the longest increasing streak in many years. Opening the week at 2,886 USD/oz, gold price peaked at 2,955 USD/oz and closed at 2,936 USD/oz. The main reason is concern about US tariff policy causing economic instability, increasing global gold demand. In addition, many central banks, especially in the BRICS bloc, are also actively buying gold. Gold prices will have more room to rise higher due to the ongoing geopolitical and geo-economic instability, including the Trump administration's tariff policy and the risk of political instability in Europe. Additionally, demand for investing in gold-backed exchange-traded funds is also growing. The US PCE inflation report, released next Friday, may affect gold prices through FED interest rate adjustments. If PCE increases, the FED may delay cutting interest rates, which is detrimental to gold prices. On the contrary, if PCE drops sharply, the gold price could exceed 3,000 USD/oz. SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Tuesday morning will see the February US Consumer Confidence report, followed by January New Home Sales data on Wednesday. On Thursday, markets will receive preliminary reports on US fourth-quarter GDP, January Durable Goods Orders and weekly jobless claims, followed by US pending housing contract data later in the morning. However, the most important event of the week will be the US core PCE index on Friday, along with the January personal income and personal spending reports. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, helping gold traders gauge the outlook for interest rates in the near term. 📌Technically, although the gold price is still maintaining an uptrend, however, on the Weekly and Daily charts, some technical indicators such as MACD show signs that the price has diverged, the moving average lines (EMA34,89) are quite far from the price line, this shows that the gold price next week may face adjustment pressure before continuing to increase again, unless there are fundamental factors that have a strong impact on the gold price. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,922 – 2,915USD Resistance: 2,946USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3001 - 2999⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3005 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2834 - 2836⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2830
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD is under great pressure by the US DollarThe US Dollar Index soared again, which put pressure on OANDA:XAUUSD adding momentum to the adjustment momentum taking place in recent days. Bloomberg said that after US President Donald Trump confirmed he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week, currency traders bought the US Dollar, while currencies other than the USD were negatively affected, with the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso being hit the hardest. The soaring US Dollar is also detrimental to precious metals, commodities and digital currencies. Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4. He stated on his "Truth Social" account: "Drugs are still flowing into our country from Mexico and Canada in unacceptable quantities. We cannot let this scourge continue to hurt the United States, so until it stops or is tightly controlled, tariffs are proposed." with Canada and Mexico) scheduled to take effect on March 4 will actually take effect as planned." Trump also said he would impose "reciprocity" tariffs of 25% on cars and other European goods. OANDA:XAUUSD In recent times, it has still been going fast and strong, although fundamentally there are still many existing support risks, mainly due to profit-taking activities after a long period of price increases and the strong increase in the price of the US Dollar. Thanks to the influx of money into safe havens, gold prices hit an all-time high of $2,956.15 an ounce on Monday after a rapid downward correction. Gold prices are clearly fluctuating, short-term fluctuations and some profit-taking are just a normal part of the cycle Since the presidential election on November 5 of last year, the Dollar Spot Index has gained 6.62%. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD The medium-term uptrend of gold price is threatened when the sell-off momentum brings gold price below the price channel and EMA21, these are negative signals with the next support level being noticed at the price point of 2,835USD, more likely is the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, the $2,880 level is the previous support turned resistance with the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement becoming the nearest resistance. On the other hand, the RSI tests the 50 mark. Once the RSI passes the 50 mark, this will be a warning of continued price decline because there is still room to fall with the RSI quite far from the oversold level. As noted to readers in previous publications and short comments during the day, the downward correction will not stop easily before the original price point of 2,900 USD, so you must always be ready for stronger corrections when gold has had a very long period of technical increase. Although gold has not yet formed a clear downtrend in the medium term, there is still room to fall ahead and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,850 – 2,835 – 2,814USD Resistance: 2,868 – 2,880 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2911 - 2909⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2915 →Take Profit 1 2903 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2897 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2849 - 2851⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2845 →Take Profit 1 2857 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2863
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading