2024-12-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Clear breakout on the daily chart. ATH wants a retest and for now there is no reason why market would stop there. My upmost target is 22400ish but for now bulls want to hit the 3 upper trend lines and see which one produces most resistance. Bears come back into the picture with a daily close below 20800.
current market cycle: Bull trend but also nested bull wedges on the daily chart. Will end in the next 3-8 weeks
key levels: 21000 - 21500
bull case: Bulls have 3 obvious targets above now. First ath retest 21340, then 2 more upper bull trend lines from wedges. 22000 is possible over the next 4 weeks but we are in the last stage of the bull trend.
Invalidation is a daily close below 21000.
bear case: Bears gave up above 21000 and will probably try again above 20300 or higher. For now they don’t have any arguments before bulls begin to stall due to profit taking. It’s too late for bigger longs and too early to short. Be patient.
Invalidation is above 22000.
short term: Bullish for 21340 and then probably some more. Buying pullback is most likely the easiest way here.
medium-long term: Will update this over the weekend. 22000 is a possibility but a bit far for now. Daily close above 20500 would bring it in play. First target for Q1 2025 is 19000.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buy anywhere. Textbook breakout and market never looked back.
Futures
Oil focus on EIA data and OPEC+ meetingTVC:USOIL increased slightly during the Asian trading session on Monday (December 2), trading around 68.30 USD/barrel. Market volatility has continued to decrease and we need to wait for new changes in fundamental factors to shape the short-term trend.
This week we will focus on EIA inventory data and the OPEC+ meeting. At the same time, this week will release US non-farm data. If non-farm data continues to strengthen, it will continue to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which will be detrimental to rising oil prices.
Last week, as the geopolitical situation eased, pressure on the supply side eased and the market is now expecting that this OPEC+ meeting is expected to be postponed and increased production will support oil prices.
On the geopolitical side, there are no significant new points. Lebanon's official news agency said on Friday that four Israeli tanks had entered Lebanese border villages. The ceasefire, which took effect last Wednesday, has reduced oil's hedging premium and sent oil prices tumbling despite accusations of ceasefire violations between the two sides.
Although there are still many potential risks, the conflict in the Middle East has not disrupted oil supplies and oil supplies are expected to be more abundant in 2025. The International Energy Agency believes that there is a surplus of supply. is expected to exceed 1 million barrels/day, equivalent to more than 1% of global production.
OPEC+ is expected to decide to continue extending production cuts at the upcoming meeting. With stagnant demand and oversupply, OPEC will face an uphill battle if it wants to push up oil prices.
On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL The main long-term trend is still down with the price channel as the main trend, pressure from EMA21 and horizontal resistance levels around the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point sent to readers in previous publications. .
In the short term, WTI crude oil has enough room to continue falling with a target of around 66.44USD in the short term, more than 65.28USD.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is also maintaining activity below or around the 50 level, which is considered a bearish signal with the target being the oversold area.
As long as WTI crude oil remains at EMA21, it still has a bearish short-term technical outlook, and the trend from the price channel continues to trend in the long term.
In the current daily chart, WTI crude oil has a downward trend with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD
Resistance: 69.51 – 70.54USD
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 12.01 - 12.06.24Last Week :
Last week market opened up inside the Value of this 930s - 650s HTF Range, beginning of the week we were able to stay around the Value and balance inside this 620 - 970s Intraday Range with pushes out of Value that got sold back in. Wednesday again opened over Value and sold back in with RTH Volume but closed right under VAH to finish regular trading week. Shortened holiday sessions didnt have much supply so we were able to hold over VAH which build up stops that got squeezed in upper Edge once end of week covering came in on Friday.
This Week :
This is technically the first tag of this new HTF Range Edge since our first push towards it failed just shy of it. More often than not first tests of big areas like an Edge provide a reaction in the oppositive direction, of course we could say the push that gave us selling from this area the first time was it and that this time we may hold long or continue but because this move was during shortened holiday sessions we need to watch out with looking for continuation from here unless market can hold over 640s - 50s, stay around/inside the Edge AND get through 670s with Edge top and start holding over it. Until this happens I would be looking for us to either try and balance around this Current Intraday Range of 620s - 670 which we pushed into Friday or if the buying just pushes us up during lighter volume days and wont stick come next week then we can see a move back towards VAH and if we can't hold over it then its possible to see continuation back inside the Value/Mean and if we have enough supply a push for lower VAL.
We have HTF stops built up there under 970s if that area gets taken it could bring in more selling to give us an Edge to Edge move from bottom to the top, if we can't take the stops at VAL then we could continue to balance inside this Value building Supply.
This is new month and last month of the year, will we start our first week with a sell towards the buyers who are under 940s or do we have enough buying to give us a hold over Value and try to test new one ?
On Daily TF we are still inside a 5720s - 6070s Range and currently we are inside Daily Edge, if we can't get through it then possible return towards Daily VAH which is in 980 - 60s Area.
MANTA 1D. Accumulation Ends. 12/02/24Previously, the price spent considerable time in an accumulation phase. After finding a bottom at $0.583, an upward trend began to form.
Currently, the price is testing a resistance level, attempting to break through and consolidate, which could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. Although unsuccessful so far, it seems to be only a matter of time. In the short term, a slight pullback is expected, followed by, in my opinion, continued growth.
Entry Plan (EP): $1.05 - $0.95
Take Profit (TP):
$1.535
$1.869
$2.222
Stop Loss (SL): $0.747
For spot positions: no stop-loss recommended.
DYOR.
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Bearish. Bears printed 4 consecutive bear bars and made new lows. Next target is 67. Only a daily close above 70 would do it for the bulls but even then the next bear trend line runs below 71. Market is once again forming nested triangles on the daily chart. Tough to trade.
Quote from last week:
comment: Was also bullish on this and bulls finally came around. Clear break of the bear trend line and next target is 72.6. Is this a very bullish structure? Hell no. I expect more sideways movement just in a bigger range 69 - 72/73 until the bear gap is closed. If bulls somehow manage to close it next week, we can expect 75+ next. Continuation of the current range is much more likely though and that is why you should not over analyze trading ranges. Market is in balance in the midpoint, so mark it and fade the extremes.
comment: The most likely outcome was a continuation of the trading range and that’s what we got. Bears are on their way to test 67 again and the market now have formed a head & shoulders pattern like in August where we broke down to make new lows. Most h&s patterns fail and are just continuation patterns. We will likely get the answer to that next week. Anything between 68 and 70 is a dead zone and I will only be interested in longs around 67, if bulls come around again. Shorts do not make sense below 70.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 67 - 72.6
bull case: Horrible week for the bulls with a clear sell signal going into next week. They have to defend 67 or we will likely go down to 66 or 65.74 again. Bulls who bought 67 have made money since September and we have no reason to expect it to be different this time. Daily close above 69 brings 70 and 70.5 in play.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: I do think Monday’s bar was a big bear surprise and market went mostly sideways afterwards. They also had a really good reversal on Friday which is a sell signal going into next week. They want to test the November low 66.27 and break below the very shallow bull trend line to test 65.73 or the lower bull trend line starting December 2023 at around 64.
Invalidation is above 71.6.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish that we reach 72 but upside is probably limited after that. Pullbacks are likely to be bought if not too strong and if we stay above 68.
→ Last Sunday we traded 71.24 and now we are at 68. Outlook was just plain wrong and that was already clear on Monday at US open. Market basically went nowhere after that.
short term: Neutral 68 - 70 and I doubt we make lower lows below 66. Even if bears push below, downside is likely limited.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing worth mentioning.
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral. Bulls need a strong break above 2700 to test 2720 and the upper triangle line, above that is 2750 and if they break even that, no more resistance until 2800. Most bullish target I have left is 2900 but that’s too far to talk about right now. If bears break below 2630, it’s likely going down to 2560 again.
Quote from last week:
comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity.
comment: Talk about you can’t time the market. Pretty good call that was from the above outlook last week. Higher low, and lower high. Triangle on the daily, very bullish above and very bearish below. Not rocket science to read this. I do think bulls are slightly favored.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 2500 - 2900
bull case: My line in the sand was 2650 and low was 2630. Next stop for the bulls is 2700 and 2720. A break above the bear line opens the market up to 2800 again. That is all there is to it right now. Clear invalidation levels and breakout points to set alerts.
Invalidation is below 2630.
bear case: Bears had a pretty amazing day on Monday but the follow through was disappointing and so we have formed a triangle. Wait for the breakout to either side and hop along or play the current range.
Invalidation is above 2750.
outlook last week:
short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2712 and now we are at 2681. Missed the low by about 20 points but ok. Not the best outlook but I wrote that a pullback is expected and we got one.
short term: Slightly bullish if we stay above 2630. Max bullish above 2750.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear trend line from the triangle.
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futurestl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures: Max bullish. New ath is done, now I have two upper targets left for this year. We have 2 decent upper bull trend lines where only the #1 target of 6300 fits. The other would be 6450 but too far and too low probability for now. Bears would need anything below 5850 to kill the rally.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again.
comment: Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Again. Market wanted up and it got it. Is this stopping here? Probably not. Look for longs .
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6500)
bull case: Last hurrah. 6150 is my next target and if we don’t stop, 6500. Is this a bubble? Yes. Can you short this? No. Trends can go much further than anyone can imagine and your account can not sustain the drawdown of early shorts. Breakout is clear, as is the chart.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Non-starter is this here. Daily close below 5850, then I start looking at this with a bigger bullish eye.
Invalidation is above 6070.
outlook last week:
short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5987 and now we are at 6051. Perfect outlook.
short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6150 and 6500 are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing.
The History of Forex Trading: How It All Began Ever wondered how forex trading became the massive, 24/5 global market we know today? Here’s a quick look at its fascinating journey:
1️⃣ The Gold Standard Era (1870s–1930s)
Forex trading originated when countries began linking their currencies to gold. This system created fixed exchange rates but collapsed during the Great Depression due to economic instability.
2️⃣ Bretton Woods Agreement (1944–1971)
After World War II, nations agreed to peg their currencies to the US Dollar, which was backed by gold. This made the USD the world’s reserve currency and gave rise to modern foreign exchange systems.
3️⃣ Floating Exchange Rates (1971–Present)
When the Bretton Woods system ended, currencies began to "float," meaning their values were determined by supply and demand in the market. This shift created today’s forex market, where traders speculate on fluctuating currency prices.
4️⃣ The Rise of Retail Forex (1990s–2000s)
The advent of the internet and trading platforms like MetaTrader brought forex to individual traders. What was once reserved for banks and institutions became accessible to anyone with an internet connection.
5️⃣ Today’s $7.5 Trillion Market (2020s)
Now, forex is the largest financial market in the world, with $7.5 trillion traded daily. Traders from every corner of the globe participate, using advanced tools and strategies to navigate this dynamic market.
Forex has come a long way, and we’re part of its exciting evolution. What do you think the future holds for forex trading? AI tools? Crypto integration? Let me know in the comments!
#SOL 4H: EXPECTING A LOCAL CORRECTION. 12/01/24Currently, the price is moving sideways and remains under a descending trendline that acts as resistance. If this trend persists, I anticipate a slight breakout upward followed by a correction to the $222-$218 range. This area could be ideal for considering a futures position or cautious spot accumulation, with near-term targets of $260-$290.
#SOL is definitely a must-have in your portfolio. My minimum expectations for #SOL are $300-$400. Everything is illustrated on the chart.
DYOR.
#BTC Rally Continues 2H. 12/01/24The monthly closing price is significantly higher than the opening, indicating steady growth throughout the month. The closing price was $96,475.
In my opinion, Bitcoin's price is likely to continue rising in the coming days, either by the end of this week or early next week. Target range: $99,600 - $99,700. In other words, I’m expecting a new ATH soon.
DYOR.
#BLUR 1D: Retest or Rally – Setup Inside! 11/25/24The Blur token (BLUR) is the primary cryptocurrency of the Blur Network, a platform designed to provide private and secure transactions with a strong focus on user privacy.
Here’s how I see it: ready for a retest and then a move higher. It might even go higher without a retest.
Setup on the chart.
DYOR.
#STRK 1D. Risky Trade Setup with High Targets! 11/25/24We’ve broken out of the range with a strong upward impulse—exactly as forecasted. What’s next? Either a minor pullback to support or a continuation upward from current levels. To put it plainly and concisely: the nearest target, which we will 100% reach, is $0.6582.
Will we see #STRK hit $1 this cycle? Absolutely, yes. That’s my call, and I’m saying it right now. Lock this in your mind, and in time, we’ll check if my expectations were correct. Could we see #STRK at $0.8767 as early as next month? It’s entirely possible.
Key factors supporting this move: we’re closing the week bullish, with solid volumes, and above the upper boundary of the range. Ideal setup, in my view!
This is worth a shot, though it’s high-risk. Check the stop.
Setup:
Entry: $0.5800 - $0.5400
Targets: $0.6513, $0.8759, $1.1000, $1.3597
Stop-Loss: $0.3928
On spot: no stops.
DYOR.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 02 - Dec 06]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD fell quite sharply from 2,721 USD/oz to 2,605 USD/oz, then increased slightly and closed the week at 2,650 USD/oz.
The reason why gold prices dropped sharply in the early sessions of this week was because President-elect Donald Trump nominated Mr. Scott Bessent, a traditional Wall Street financier, to hold the position of the US Treasury. The market expects Mr. Bessent to contribute to stabilizing the US economy and increasing the strength of the USD.
Besides, a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, announced earlier this week, also eased worries about geopolitical tensions, reducing the appeal of gold as a safe haven.
In particular, Mr. Trump threatened to impose a 25% tax on Mexican and Canadian goods imported into the US and proposed imposing a 10% tax on all products from China, also increasing concerns about a tariff war. , causing the FED to delay reducing interest rates, or even increase interest rates again.
In addition, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) in November still increased by 2.8% over the same period last year, higher than forecast and much higher than the FED's target of 2%. This may make the FED more cautious in continuing to cut interest rates in the short term.
Many people believe that the gold market will have some unpredictable fluctuations in the near future as it continuously reacts to Mr. Trump's comments before his inauguration.
In the short term, gold prices next week will continue to be dominated by statements posted on social networks by Mr. Trump. In addition, the market will focus on important US economic data, such as manufacturing and service PMI index; Employment indexes: ADP, NFP, unemployment rate... If US employment figures, especially NFP, increase stronger than expected, it may cause the FED to delay cutting interest rates at the December meeting. coming, causing gold prices to come under pressure to adjust next week. On the contrary, if US employment figures continue to decline sharply, it will cause the FED to continue cutting interest rates, thereby positively supporting gold prices next week.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, gold price may still fluctuate between 2,500 - 2,750 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,600 – 2,606 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,693 – 2,663USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2539 - 2541⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2535
GOLD increased thanks to the weakening of the USDOANDA:XAUUSD rose, boosted by the weakening of the USD and safe-haven demand due to concerns about persistent geopolitical tensions. Despite recovering in the final trading session of the week, gold still recorded its worst month of performance since September 2023.
The US Dollar Index fell to its lowest in more than two weeks, but was still up 2% in November as Republican Donald Trump's victory earlier this month boosted expectations of big fiscal spending. , higher tariffs and tighter borders.
This month, gold prices have fallen more than 3%, the worst monthly decline since September last year. After Mr. Trump's victory, the USD continuously increased in price and triggered a strong sell-off in the gold market.
OANDA:XAUUSD forecast
Geopolitical instability is still increasing, gold prices may still increase in the near future. Gold is often considered a safe investment in times of economic and geopolitical instability such as trade tensions or conflict.
The new administration's policies in the US can impact economies, causing the central bank to increase gold reserves. This prompted a sharp increase in gold trading by central banks. This is the group that bought the most gold on the market recently.
BCA Research recommends buying gold when prices fall due to long-term prospects. Gold is a commodity that benefits from the policies of the new administration in the US. Increased global policy uncertainty will support gold buying demand.
Geopolitical risks pushed GOLD to increase rapidly in the short In the early trading session on Asian markets on Friday (November 29), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot rose suddenly and rapidly from the intraday low of $2,633 and headed into a key technical position for technical downside expectations. Impacted by escalating tensions in Ukraine.
Russia launches joint attack, Putin "speaks tough"
While Israel and Lebanon have reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement, this will essentially create pressure on gold as market risks become less. However, the escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may continue to keep gold prices stable above 2,600 USD/ounce in the near future.
The latest Reuters report on Friday said that Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday local time said Russia could use the new "Hazel" hypersonic missile to attack Kiev in response to Ukraine's missile launch. Western fire penetrated deep into Russian territory.
So far in the 33-month war, Russia has not yet attacked Ukrainian ministries, government agencies, parliament or the presidential office.
Putin said on Thursday that Russia's large-scale attack on Ukraine was a "response" to Ukraine's use of Western missile systems to attack Russian territory.
Earlier in the day, Ukraine reported that energy facilities across Ukraine were being attacked by Russian armed forces.
Ukraine's Air Force said Thursday that Russia launched a joint attack on Ukraine using missiles and drones starting early that morning. Most regions in Western Ukraine are under attack, especially Ternopil, Lviv, Lutsk, Vinnitsa, Khmelnytsky and others.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said on the social platform on Thursday that he had a conversation with the Air Force commander, the Minister of Internal Affairs and the Minister of Energy that day about the Russian attack. Mr. Zelensky said that the target of Russia's attack this time is Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Russia launched about 100 attack drones and more than 90 missiles of all types.
In the current market context, traders need to pay attention to geopolitical conflicts, their escalation or reduction will have a sudden impact on gold in the short term.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold recovered from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level but is temporarily limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level and the EMA21 moving average.
In the short term, Gold can still decrease in price as long as it has not broken the medium-term trend price channel. In the immediate future, gold does not have enough conditions to increase in price in the short term, but a drop below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level will cause gold to fall further with the goal of reaching the original price point of 2,600 USD.
However, geopolitical risks are dominating the market, so any purely technical structure could be broken quite easily during this time. The $2,693 level will be the next target in case the 0.50% Fibonacci level is broken above.
The market is very volatile in the short term, so long-term open positions will be less effective, and notable technical levels for the medium-term bearish outlook from the price channel on the daily chart will be seen. noticed again as follows.
Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
→Take Profit 1 2586
↨
→Take Profit 2 2591
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures - Same as for dax. Retest of yesterday’s open price and bears could only correct sideways and biggest dip was 5 points. Big bull trend line was support and we are on our way up. I expect 6040 and probably higher. If not tomorrow then next month. We have a perfect channel upwards which leads 6100+. I don’t think bears can even get below 6015 again. If they do, 6000 has to hold or we could have seen the highs.
comment: Not much difference to my dax outlook. Relentless buying today, ath in sight and a decent channel upwards. Bears need something below 6000 to make bulls cover. Big bullish bias for me. Possible that we stay around 6000-6050 for November, to then do the Santa rally somewhere in December. Closing 2024 above 6000 would be amazing for bulls.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 6000 - 6050 (above 6050 comes 6100 in play)
bull case : Higher lows and higher highs. Clear invalidation price given and big resistance above. I doubt bears can get this below 6010/6015 tomorrow. Only longs for me. If we stall around 6040, you should have a tight stop and from a r:r perspective, new longs above 6040 are bad.
Invalidation is below 6010.
bear case: Bears need something below 6000. That’s it. How likely is that? Look at the daily chart. Is there any bearishness in there?
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term : Bullish.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere.
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Max bullishness. Bulls bought it all today. We barely made higher highs and are still under 19500 but every small dip was relentlessly bought. Bulls also defended the Globex gap and that fact + that we closed right at the highs is the strongest buy signal going into tomorrow there is. I expect a quick move abov 19500, followed by some sideways movement before we go for 19600 and I don’t think it can prevent a new ath either tomorrow or next week. I only get bearish below 19350.
comment : Bulls set up a big breakout for the coming days. Every dip was bought and we closed at the highs. Easy validation levels now. 19519 was high of the week and we will likely hit it tomorrow for some sideways movement afterwards. Very bullish for 19600 after that. If we drop below 19380 again, means the bull trend line broke and we have many support prices between that and 19300. Do or die for the bulls here. Fail and down to 19300 or lower. Break above and likely 19600 and new ath.
current market cycle : trading range
key levels: 19300 - 19600
bull case: Bulls want the breakout above 19520 and they are perfectly set up to get it. Measured move from today brings us almost exactly to the ath 19802. There. Are. No. Coincidences.
Invalidation is below 19350.
bear case: Bears need to stay below 19500 to have a reasonable chance of going more sideways and then down below 19350. Below that, they will likely gain more momentum and go down to 19300 or 19200. Until then, they have little arguments on their side after today. Market now closed 4 consecutive bars above the daily 20ema and bears could not even close the Globex gap today. That is so bullish because it’s so rare, you can not think about shorting this until bears have shown strength again.
Invalidation is above 19520.
short term: Bullish. Expect a meltup.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Longs only. Every dip buy made you money.
GOLD fell rapidly in the short term, pressured by US dataIn the early trading session in Asian markets on Thursday (November 28), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly dropped sharply in the short term, currently trading around 2,629 USD/ounce. Gold prices gave up much of their earlier recovery gains after data showed inflation progress was stalling, as the data could make the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates further.
According to Wednesday's economic data, US durable goods orders rose 0.2% month-on-month in October. While it did not meet expectations of 0.5%, it was an improvement. improved compared to a decrease of 0.4% in September.
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US in the week of November 23 remained stable at 213,000, lower than the expected level of 217,000.
The real (quarterly annually adjusted) rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States in the third quarter was unchanged from its baseline value, at 2.8%, and growth slowed from 3% in the second quarter.
But the GDP report still shows that the US economy still has good resilience. GDP growth has exceeded 2% in eight of the past nine quarters.
A report released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the Fed's favorite inflation index rebounded in October compared to September. The data supports Fed officials taking a more cautious stance in recent times. next interest rate cut.
The Fed's favorite measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index that excludes volatile food and energy, rose 2.8% year-on-year in October, a highest since April this year compared to September, up 2.7%.
Additionally, the core PCE price index increased 0.3% month-over-month in October, in line with expectations.
The PCE price index increased 0.2% month-over-month and 2.3% year-on-year in October, both in line with the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones. The PCE index's annual increase in October was higher than September's 2.1% gain.
Wednesday's data showed that U.S. personal income rose 0.6% month-on-month in October, significantly better than the expected increase of 0.3%.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting released Tuesday showed that although Fed officials said they expected to continue cutting interest rates in the future, they said the pace Interest rate cuts will take place “gradually”.
The gold market fluctuated strongly this week. As Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon declared a ceasefire, reducing demand for safe havens, gold suffered its biggest one-day drop in more than five months on Monday and prices fell to a low. most since November 18 on Tuesday.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to maintain its main bearish trend after approaching and coming under pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
The drop below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement is a good signal for bearish expectations as the target behind that is at the levels of 2,606 – 2,600USD. Note to readers in the previous issue.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is flat below 50, if it is pointing down this can be considered a good signal for a downtrend.
As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, it will remain bearish in the near term and price rallies should only be considered short-term recoveries without changing the current primary trend.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,644USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
→Take Profit 1 2586
↨
→Take Profit 2 2591
GOLD should continue bullish as the Dollar takes a breakcaught a nice move yesterday and looking for the move to continue today. We are sitting in a high volume level on the VP and bears are starting to fall back from being active. waiting for the next 2hours of the Asian kill zone to show me what price wants to do.
#IOTX 1D: 100% Circulating Supply – Stable Growth. 11/28/24Launched in 2017 as an open-source project, IoTeX has evolved into a decentralized platform empowering the open economy for machines. It is an ecosystem where people and machines interact with trust, autonomy, and carefully designed economic incentives.
Nearly 100% of all tokens are already in circulation, a crucial factor as it eliminates future unlocks that could lead to large-scale sell-offs. This reduces market volatility caused by major sales.
The current price level appears to be a "bottom," making further declines unlikely.
With a market cap exceeding $400 million, IoTeX has growth potential. If its market cap increases significantly, the token price could follow, indicating the project has yet to reach its full potential.
IOTXUSDT shows promising potential for further growth, supported by the limited availability of tokens for large investors.
#DOGS 1D. Symmetrical Triangle – Key Levels Inside! 11/28/24Over the past week, I noticed that trading volumes for this token on Binance have risen to levels comparable to many popular tokens, both on futures and spot markets.
Currently, the price has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on increasing volume, bouncing off the support level. This could indicate potential for further growth.
I plan to take profit on both spot and futures positions in the $0.010 - $0.012 range, as I don’t see value in holding beyond that. Setup is shown on the chart.
DYOR.
2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra - 19300 was crushed early and we tested 19200 and given yesterday. Market tried to reverse it but failed below the breakout point. That’s bearish on one hand but we closed above the daily and 1h 20ema. Bulls need 19500 and bears 19100. We are trading right in the middle of it and that zone is death for your account. Wait for a strong breakout. It will likely happen tomorrow.
comment: Market hit the midpoint of this trading range and went back above 19300. We are in no mans land between 19200 and 19400. Bearish below, bullish above. Break above 19350 tomorrow and we will see 19400 and likely 19460 afterwards. Fail at 19200 and we go down to 19000. Absolute in balance is what this is, so no bias on my end.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19200 - 19400
bull case: Bulls need a 1h close above 19350 for higher prices. That’s all there is to it right now.
Invalidation is below 19250.
bear case: Bears want to stay inside the bear channel and test 19200 again. We are seeing many converging lines for tomorrow, so it’s reasonable to hope for a bigger trend day tomorrow.
Invalidation is above 19350.
short term: Neutral. Clear levels given, hoping for a big day tomorrow.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Short from the open, which was a bit unexpected imo. Market then formed clear and expected support at 19200, which was a good long for 200+ points.
2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Market tested the 50% retracement to the tick and reversed up. It also closed above the daily 20ema, so bulls remain in control but barely. Clear triangle on the daily chart and it has room for 1-2 more days but it could also break out big time tomorrow.
current market cycle: Bull trend but also nested triangle on the daily chart
key levels : 20500 - 21500
bull case: First target is a break above 2100 and we would likely see giving up by the bears then and no more resistance until 21340. If bulls fail here and the bull trend line from August breaks, market is free to crash down to 18000.
Invalidation is below 20500.
bear case: Bears need strong follow through selling below 20700 or we won’t see lower prices. 20850 is around the mid point of the triangle and my line in the sand for bears. If they manage to keep it below, we could test down to 20700 and maybe break below.
Invalidation is above 21000.
short term: Neutral. Either wait for a bigger breakout or play the range.
medium-long term: If we stay above 20500, will likely rally more into year end before a bigger correction.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling the US open. Market traded below the 2m 20ema for 240 points down.