GOLD - 12?31?24.As we can see, in the future of this analysis - we may see price create a bearish pattern.
Will be looking to take advantage of this opportunity and trade the bearish pattern.
- FX_Dispenser .
Futures
2024-12-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral between 20000 - 20100, Bearish below 20000. Bears tried to break down the bear flag and make new lows but failed above 19900 and bulls retraced 50% of it. Good for bears is that they kept the 1h 20ema resistance and xetra closed the year below 20000, which is a sell signal going into January. Bulls did a good job at retracing more than 50% of the sell-off the keeping it above 20000. Market formed a triangle so buy low and sell high inside it. Below 19900 we could see an acceleration downwards and I see the chance of that happening much greater than going above 20160 again.
comment: Xetra closed below 20000 and that was very important for the bears. The December bar is now a nasty reversal bar and once we make new lows below 19800, bulls can’t hold long since we could easily pull back down to 19100 - 19400.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19800 - 20200
bull case: Bulls do not have much going for them currently, other than keeping the market close to 20000 and that means above the breakout price for the recent bull leg. They have to keep this above 19800 or this bull leg was indeed the exhaustive end of this bull trend and market will test lower. Bulls would need a daily bull bar closing above 20000 to begin with.
Invalidation is below 19800.
bear case: Bears are in control but not as strong as I hoped they would be. Daily bear bars all have tails below but at least bears have now printed 5 consecutive bear bars. This looks clearly like a bear flag about to break down after the strong selling from 20500 down to 19800. Confirmation would be a daily close below 19800 and bears next target then is 19500 and testing the bull trend line. Bulls would have to break above two bear trend lines to start making the market neutral again.
Invalidation is above 20160.
short term: Neutral around 20000. Bearish below 19990 and uber bearish below 19900 for 19800 or lower.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling the pull-back at 20100 down to 19900 was good. Buying 19900 second best trade today.
2024-12-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Bearish. Good selling today and bulls could not close above the breakout price around 5990. The close was near the open of the week and since we had a big gap down, this is bearish confirmation. Below 5900 this could very well close the year below 5860, which would be a nasty bearish reversal bar on the monthly chart and a clear sell signal going into January. Bulls need to break above the trend line and 6000 again and a close above it would be neutral.
comment: I am heavily favoring a yearly close below 5900 as of now. The selling is strong enough and bears made lower highs again. Anything below 5860 would surprise me though. We are in a clear bear channel and bulls need something above 5965 and bears a break below 5900. The open of December was near 6100 and the lower bears can close this monthly bear bar, the better.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5800 - 6050
bull case: Bulls retraced 78.6% of the sell-off which was the fib retracement to the tick. Did it help? No. Very strong selling into the close again and after hours. Bulls need to fight for 6000. The only thing they have going for them is that we made a higher low. Any yearly close above 6000 would be good for them.
Invalidation is below 5860.
bear case: Bears are trading below the 1h 20ema, daily 20ema and have 2 bear trend lines going for them. They need strong follow through tomorrow and close this below 5865, which was the previous December low. We have nested bear channels on the 1h chart but also a triangle with last weeks low. Objectives for the bears tomorrow are to keep the 1h 20ema resistance and break below 5900 to test 5865.
Invalidation is above 6038.
short term: Neutral 5950 - 6000. Bearish below 5950 for 5900 and then 5865. Uber bearish below 5865.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling since Globex open. The reversal from the 5918 low was very strong and trapped many late bears. Second best trade was to take it and hold until market stalled for multiple hours near 5990.
#Gold Is still bullish trend In 1H timeframe, gold is working in the channel which is a sigh to take the Previous low and show some strength to the upside, bias is bearish yet.
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Probably the most boring outlook to write. Oil has been in a triangle since 2023-09 and we will see a bigger breakout in 2025. To which side? Absolutely no idea. Oil has been stuck inside a 10% range for the past 10 weeks and it’s almost not possible that the range contracts further. We have nested triangles and the biggest of those can play out a couple of more weeks. It’s always possible that the pattern fails and market could just continue sideways for longer. Since I don’t have a crystal ball, I do not have an opinion on where this could break out. Market is in total balance around 69. I will continue to take this market level by level and play the given range. Since neither side has any arguments for their case, I won’t write a bull/bear case for this. If you don’t like trading ranges, just don’t trade this.
current market cycle: trading range (nested triangles on multiple time frames)
key levels for 2025: 65 - 75
short term: I won’t make up stuff. Market is as neutral as it gets. Clear support 66/67 and clear resistance 70.5 / 72.3
medium-long term: Nope to the nopedy nope. Go follow some macro schmackro dude who tells the world Oil will go to 100$ again because of *insert hypothetical macro event*.
current swing trade: None
#202452 - priceactiontds - year end special nasdaq eminiGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: If you have read part 1 of 2, much of the following will be the same. Nasdaq has now gained 80%+ since the 2022-10 lows. Again, if you think it’s more likely that we will do another 15%+ up next year because this time it’s different, I don’t have much for you and you can stop reading now.
Now matter how you draw the bull trend since, it has had at least 3 clear big legs up where the last one was the shortest with the least pull-backs. The confirmation for it to end would be consecutive daily closes below 20800. For now bears have not had two consecutive weekly bear bars since September. The trend is overdone to say the least. As for dax and sp500, a 20% correction would bring us down to big previous support 2024-04 and 2024-08 at 17900. My first medium-term target would be the big bull trend line, which is overlapping a fair bit with the monthly 20ema. The trend line is around 19700-20000 and the monthly 20ema is currently at 18900. For the near term I expect the market to get it’s second leg down early in 2025 and potential targets are the 50% pb of the last bull leg and the previous ath from 2024-07 which would bring us to 20400-20650.
current market cycle: Bull trend of the past two years has likely ended and new lows below 20900 will be the confirmation, at least to me. Technically only a break of the big bull trend line would confirm it (around 19700 currently)
key levels for 2025: 17800 - 22500 (decent chance we will see 20000 only in the first couple of weeks and then only in a couple of months or years again)
bull case: Bull trend is technically over once we break below the bull trend line which is currently 19600. Bulls are still very far above that and trading above the weekly 20ema. They remain in control for now but after such a long ongoing rally they are trading the momentum only because stonkz can only go up eh. I really don’t have much for the bulls here. We could do another try of 22000 and above and even print a new ath but the upside will probably be very limited. Don’t expect bullish outlooks from me over the next weeks. I will only scalp long on big support. The best outcome for bulls that I see is sideways above 20000. Anything below will accelerate to the downside.
Invalidation is below 17400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 15000 again.
bear case: In order, my first big target for the bears for 2025 is 19000, where I expect more sideways movement. Below 19000 comes 18000 which was previous support and the lowest I can see this for now is 17400. Bears would need stronger follow through below 21500 early in January and then make new lows below 20900. Then I see the odds of a measured move down to 19500-20000 as decent. On my weekly chart you can see my preferred path forward for the next months. 3 legs down where leg 1 was the drop from 22450 to 21000. I do think it’s much more likely to expect a break of the dashed bull trend line than another leg up.
Invalidation is above 22600.
short term: The year end rally was stopped short at 22110 and I don’t think bulls have enough strength to go above it Monday/Tuesday. We could see a spike up after new years but if we close 2024 below 21500, I expect the spike to be sold as well. If we don’t trade above 22000 by 2025-01-03, I see the odds that the top is in at 70%. My short term target for the bears is 21000 and lowest for now is 20700 for me. If 20700 is not bigger support, 20300 is my next target.
medium-long term: As stated above, “If we don’t trade above 22000 by 2025-01-03, I see the odds that the top is in at 70%.”. In that case, my bear targets medium term are 19000 and long term lowest target as of now, is 17400. Anything above 22500 would surprise me.
current swing trade: I will initiate longer term shorts depending on next weeks price action. Any short would need a stop with at least 22600.
$SPYWe will see a continuation from Fridays bullish reversal.
When the market opens we may see a Liquidity grab around $595 before retesting the selloff from $606.
If we fail to bounce off $595 we may see a retracement down towards $590 Order Block.
Overall I believe we will continue moving up towards the $606 price target.
GOLD tries to recover after the holidayOn this trading day, gold traders OANDA:XAUUSD will need to focus on data on initial jobless claims in the US, which could have an impact on market trends in the short term.
The seasonally adjusted number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week of December 21 will be released today (Thursday) and is expected to be 224,000.
Data released last week showed initial jobless claims in the United States fell from 242,000 to 220,000 in the week ended December 14, below expectations of 230,000, showing signs that the labor market movement is still steady.
If the latest initial unemployment claims turn out to be lower than expected, this will have a positive impact on the US Dollar and a negative impact on the price of gold and major non-US currencies.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has recovered from the technical level of $2,613, but the recovery is still limited by the upper edge of the price channel, along with the nearest resistance level noted at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point. % and EMA21.
Considering the current price position, gold still has a technical outlook of falling in price with the main trend being noticed by the price channel. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet surpassed the 50 level, the 50 level is considered resistance/support depending on the position of the RSI and on the current daily chart it is considered a resistance.
In the short term, if gold falls below the technical level of $2,613 it will have room to fall a bit further with a target level then around $2,600 and more to the $2,592 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement. .
As long as gold does not break above the price channel, with price activity stabilizing above the EMA21, it remains biased to the downside, with notable levels listed below. Along with that, using POC Volume Profile, at 2,646USD there is also a large trading volume, this position should also be considered a technical resistance.
Support: 2,613 – 2,600 – 2,592USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,646USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2651 - 2649⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2655
→Take Profit 1 2644
↨
→Take Profit 2 2639
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2585
→Take Profit 1 2596
↨
→Take Profit 2 2601
ICP Growth Outlook: Key Levels You Need to Watch. 12/26/24The price of BINANCE:ICPUSDT ICP, after setting a new high, faced sharp sell-offs and entered a correction, during which it retested a mirror level. At the specified price level, buyers began to show activity, contributing to further price growth. I believe that positions can be confidently accumulated from the current levels up to $9.8.
Targets: $23 - $27.
DYOR.
AAVE. Strong Fundamentals Drive. 12/26/24BINANCE:AAVEUSDT #AAVE is a decentralized protocol for lending and borrowing assets on the Ethereum blockchain. AAVE is a rare, older project that managed to survive the bear market and is now making a strong comeback, signaling renewed interest and improved market performance.
The project has strong fundamentals, suggesting a solid and reliable foundation for growth. I believe #AAVE has massive potential to reach its all-time high (ATH) at the very least.
Look for an entry between $331 and $297, with a near-term target of $565. But ultimately, the decision is yours!
DYOR.
Why #LINK Could Be Headed for New Highs?BINANCE:LINKUSDT
At present, the coin continues its upward movement. Previously, the asset received strong buy support at the $19.78 level (also a key support level).
Now, buyer interest is focused in the $24 - $20 range (this is where the largest volumes are concentrated). Spot purchases should be considered within this range as well, with possible further accumulation at the $13.78 level (unlikely, but worth noting).
Spot Targets:
1️⃣ $35.76
2️⃣ $52.79
And we’re sure to reach them!
I believe #LINK has tremendous potential for further growth.
DYOR.
FTM. Golden Entry Opportunity: Growth Potential Intact.BINANCE:FTMUSDT
Growth potential remains.
It’s still a good entry point for both spot and futures trades. The nearest target for a futures trade is $1.1135–$1.3748, while for a spot trade, it’s $1.3748–$1.6888.
A more conservative entry can be considered in the $0.9800–$0.9000 range—ideal for maximum comfort.
DYOR.
DOT. Consolidation & Recovery. Ready for the Next Breakout.BINANCE:DOTUSDT At the moment, I believe most altcoins have hit their lows, making this an excellent opportunity to look for entry points. After reaching their minimums, prices have entered consolidation phases and started to recover gradually. I expect a return to the structure, brief sideways trading, and a subsequent upward breakout.
The $7.5–$6.7 range looks quite appealing for buys, with targets at $9.712–$11.649.
DYOR.
GRASS. Support Tested, Resistance in Sight. 12/24/24BYBIT:GRASSUSDT
The asset price has returned to the price range where support from buyers was previously observed. Support is a level where buyers are willing to purchase the asset, halting its decline.
In this case, the range is $2.3437–$1.9320, making it a safe zone to accumulate spot positions, at least targeting the nearest resistance level at $3.4860. Opening a swing position can also be considered.
I expect a reversal pattern to form at this support level, signaling a potential trend shift from bearish to bullish (the structure currently forming is highlighted on the chart).
Projected movement is outlined on the chart.
DYOR.
ADA. Spot Entry Alert: Perfect Fibonacci Reversal! 12/24/24BINANCE:ADAUSDT
The market experienced a pullback, with the price returning to the lower boundary of the range. After breaking its support, it moved to a high-volume level, where strong buyers were present. Additionally, a proper Fibonacci correction was achieved, which might signal a potential reversal and an attractive spot entry point.
The $0.9388–$0.9088 range appears appealing for purchases, with targets at $1.2350–$1.3264.
DYOR.
GOLD trading liquidity is low during the Christmas holidayAmid sluggish trading during the holiday season, OANDA:XAUUSD decreased slightly, dragged down by the strength of the US Dollar and high US Treasury bond yields. And the market needs to wait for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve's 2025 monetary policy.
Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, this signaled fewer rate cuts in 2025, sending gold prices to their lowest since mid-month 11 last week.
While non-yielding gold benefits from the low interest rate environment, the market will need to readjust expectations for the year ahead.
The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 have weighed on gold prices, and gold will face pressure during the holiday week.
Interest rate cuts initially boosted gold prices, but the Fed's forecast of only two rate cuts by 2025 (down from four in September) sparked a sell-off that sent gold prices to lows. lowest since mid-November.
With economic data limited this week due to the Christmas holiday, gold prices are expected to remain in a tight range. Liquidity remains low, reducing volatility and keeping price action subdued.
Gold has hit multiple record highs this year and is up 27% year to date, its best annual gain since 2010, thanks to strong central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and monetary policy monetary easing by major banks.
President-elect Donald Trump will take office on January 20. The market is about to return to trading in a Donald Trump environment, we cannot forget the trading period when he was in office, how the market fluctuated with his emotions on each line.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to maintain activity below the confluence resistance area noted by readers in yesterday's publication at the upper price channel edge and the 0.618% Fibonacci level, to maintain the trend. main discount.
While the recovery has been limited, gold is also trading above the $2,613 technical level, and gold could fall a bit further with a target of around $2,591 as it is sold below $2,613.
The relative strength index (RSI) is operating below 50, which should be considered a negative signal for the trend of gold prices.
During the day, as long as gold remains below the EMA21, the upper price channel edge and the 0.618% Fibonacci, it remains inclined towards a bearish outlook with notable technical points listed as follows.
Support: 2,613 – 2,600 – 2,591USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,643USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2650
→Take Profit 1 2639
↨
→Take Profit 2 2634
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2594 - 2596⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2590
→Take Profit 1 2601
↨
→Take Profit 2 2606
GOLD recovered quite strongly, falling after FOMCOn the Asian market today (Thursday, December 19), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading recovered strongly after a sharp decline in the previous trading day. Gold price reached its highest level at the time of writing at 2,618 USD/ounce, an increase of nearly 30 USD during the day.
The market will next receive US economic data, including final third-quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims.
Market attention will then turn to Friday's release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which will boost the U.S.'s copper performance. US Dollar and gold in the short term.
FOMC
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected and predicted less policy easing in 2025. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the threshold for the next rate cut could be higher, which sent the US Dollar and US Treasury yields soaring, while at the same time, Gold fell more than 2% to a one-month low in trading on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates for a third straight time on Wednesday, but lowered their forecast for the number of rate cuts next year, signaling they are increasingly cautious about being able to reduce spending. How quickly does the loan cost?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 on Wednesday to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against, in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged.
In the FOMC policy statement, Fed officials noted that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace. Labor market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low. Inflation has made progress toward the committee's 2% target but remains high.
The new Dotplot chart shows some officials expect fewer interest rate cuts next year than they estimated just a few months ago. Fed officials currently expect the benchmark interest rate to be between 3.75% - 4% by the end of 2025, which, according to the median estimate, would mean two rate cuts of 25 points each. basic.
Jerome Powell
The Fed will cut interest rates only twice next year amid rising inflation, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, a forecast consistent with Trump's wait-and-see approach when he returned to the White House in January.
Powell said Fed policymakers want to see more progress in reducing inflation when considering future rate-cutting strategies.
US federal funds rate futures have reflected that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at its policy meeting on January 28-29 next year.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Thus, gold has enough conditions to decrease in price after falling below the 0.618% Fibonacci level and bringing price activity back below the EMA21 moving average, with a sudden impact from fundamental factors.
In the short term, although gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,591, which was the bearish target noted by previous readers, it could still continue to decline further with a target around $2,538. . When the Relative Strength Index dropped below the 50 mark and was quite far from the oversold area, it showed that there is still plenty of room for price decline ahead.
During the day, gold price increases as long as they do not surpass the 0.618% Fibonacci level and EMA21 should only be considered short-term recovery.
Along with that, the downward trend in gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD
Resistance: 2,624 – 2,634USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2635 - 2633⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2639
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2623
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2549 - 2551⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2546
→Take Profit 1 2556
↨
→Take Profit 2 2561
2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bears defended the Globex gap and market stayed below the lower bear trend line, which we broke below on Thursday. Very good for the bears but since we opened and closed near Friday’s close, market is in balance for now. Bears need to break below 20000 and bulls above 20150. Clear support and resistance, so play the range or wait for a breakout.
comment: Let’s try not to extrapolate more from today’s price action than there was. Open was 40 points below Friday’s close and US session closed 10 points above the EU open.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19800 - 20200
bull case: Bulls stopped the selling near the 50% retracement of Friday’s bull leg. Until they get a 1h bar close above 20150, the market is as neutral as it gets. Above 20150 there probably won’t be any resistance until 20250ish or even 20300.
Invalidation is below 19970.
bear case: Bears have going for them that they kept it below the channel we broke below from and below Friday’s high, which means we have an open Globex gap. Problem they have is that they tried 3 times to get below 19990 today and failed. Now market has made two credible higher lows and bears can not hold short once we get above 20140.
Invalidation is above 20140.
short term: Neutral around 20050. Very bullish above 20150 and bearish only below 19980.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 20060 and buying 20000 was good for much more trades than you should take.
2024-12-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. We stayed below Friday’s high but bulls had a really bullish close. Until they get a strong move above 6050, I lean neutral. Above 6050 there is no more resistance until 6100. Bears something below 5965 but for now they could be very happy with any daily close below 6000.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5950 - 6050
bull case: Very strong close by the bulls. Year end rally is on if they get follow through above 6050 tomorrow. A measured move up from Friday’s rally would bring us 6230+. For now we have a clear bull wedge which leads perfectly to 6100 tomorrow.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears did ok until the breakout above 6030. Now they have a do or die moment again to keep the market below 6050 or they need to cover because market could go all the way up to 6200 or higher.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Neutral. Very bullish close but bulls need follow through above 6050 tomorrow. If they get it, we probably won’t stop until 6100 or higher. Market is in balance around 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling 6030 before EU open and buying 5985 because of the head & shoulders bottom (head was the low 5965) after US open on the 5m tf.
TP REACHED ON XAUUSD | GC1!Earlier I posted to Buy XAUUSD, and reversed before hitting the SL to enter as a seller since the market gave us a reversal of the movement.
I didn't post it since I was busy with my students, here's the screenshot for you.
Follow for more daily trades!
BUY CAUUSD | GC1!You can buy on XAUUSD | GC1! after that we got a reversal at the end of the bearish movement and the beginning of an uptrend. Use same SL and TP as mine.
Follow for more!
GOLD rebound and limited, trading week with ChristmasUS economic data shows inflation is slowing. Supported by the weakening of the TVC:DXY and US Treasury bond interest rates, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase on Friday (December 18). However, the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook caused gold prices to fall 0.9% last week.
The Federal Reserve's headline inflation index (PCE) showed price pressures eased last month.
According to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.1% over the previous month. in November, slower than the 0.3% increase in October. The increase was slightly lower than economists' expectations of 0.2%.
On a yearly basis, core PCE rose 2.8%, matching the increase in October and below Wall Street expectations of 2.9%. Overall PCE increased 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in October.
Earlier this month, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and gas prices, showed prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in November, marking the fourth straight month of increases.
Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks price changes across companies, showed prices rose 3.4% year-on-year in November. The increase was higher October's 3.1% increase also exceeded economists' expectations of 3.2%.
At a press conference following Wednesday's interest rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the final phase of the Fed's response to inflation will be more difficult than initially expected.
“We were forecasting inflation at the end of the year, but as we got closer to the end of the year, the forecast was off a little bit,” Powell said. “I would say that's probably the biggest factor, inflation is once again missing expectations.”
So far this year, inflation has slowed but remains above the Fed's 2% target, pressured by recent unexpectedly hot monthly "core" price growth data.
According to the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed expects core inflation to peak at 2.5% next year, up from a forecast of 2.2% in September and falling to 2.0%. 2% in 2026 and 2027 to 2.0%.
Higher inflation expectations, coupled with a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year, have weighed on markets.
On the other hand, the election of Donald Trump as the next president has added to this uncertainty, with some economists suggesting that the United States could face another surge in inflation if Trump makes his move. True to his campaign promises.
Policies proposed by Trump such as imposing high tariffs on imported goods, cutting taxes on businesses and restricting immigration could have an inflationary effect. These policies further complicate the Fed's future interest rate path.
Data and events this week
The market will also welcome the Christmas holiday this week, traders will focus on important events such as "where to get money to buy gifts for bears, where to go so as not to eat dog food, or open the door." Is it a pan or a greeting, honey,... I don't know but I wish you all a happy Christmas and good health hehe." However, some important economic data will be released.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Monday: US consumer confidence
Tuesday: US sustainable goods, US new home sales
Wednesday: Christmas break
Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci level during the weekend trading session, but the recovery is also limited after testing the target resistance level noted by readers in the previous issue at the confluence of the upper edge. price channel and Fibonacci level 0.618%.
Currently, the closing position still supports the possibility of a technical bearish price for gold, with the price channel as the main trend price channel, resistance from Fibonacci 0.618% and pressure at Ema21.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is still operating below the 50 level, quite far from the oversold area, which shows that there is still quite a lot of room for price decline ahead.
As long as gold remains below EMA21, within price channel, it still has a bearish technical outlook and the notable points are listed below.
Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,656USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2650
→Take Profit 1 2639
↨
→Take Profit 2 2634
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2604 - 2606⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2600
→Take Profit 1 2611
↨
→Take Profit 2 2616
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I know it’s an ugly chart, bear with me.
Gold spent 2020 - 2024 inside a 570 point range and started the recent bull trend with the breakout in 2024-03. Since then Gold has made 30%, which is more than unusual to say the least. From 2018 to 2020 it made 50% but only because it lost 36% from 2011 to 2018.
Market is much less obvious on higher time frames than I’d like. Both sides have reasonable arguments going for them. For bulls it’s that the bull trend is ongoing while bears could see the leg down from 2826 down to 2566 as the first in the new bear trend. Bulls would like a third leg up which could lead to 3000. Both are valid and that is why it’s most likely that the market will move sideways rather than trend big time to either direction. My favorite path forward would be a trend down to 2300 and then sideways inside a big range 2300 - 2600.
current market cycle: Bull trend is ongoing until bears can close consecutive weekly bars below the 20ema, which is at 2640 right now. Could the new bear trend have started with W1 from 2826 down to 2566? Yes. Both can be valid at the same time.
key levels for 2025: 2500 - 3000 (if 2500 breaks, 2300 would be the next big target below)
bull case: Bulls want a W5 up to 3000. Easy as pie is that read and seeing it on the chart. Hard part, as always, is giving probabilities to it and as of now, I won’t make any. The market is in balance around 2650 and I would need prices above 2760 or below 2560 to have a stronger opinion about it. That’s short but all I have to write about it for now. Can’t make stuff up where there is none.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Bears see the move down from the ath as a W1 of the new bear trend which could lead down to my biggest bear goal for 2025 at 2200ish. Here are the big bear targets in order. First is the 50% retracement of the recent bull trend at 2500. It’s also the breakout price from the W1 high and the old ath from 2011-08. Second bigger target would be 2300 which is a measured move down from the bearish W1 from the ath, the 2023-05 high (breakout-retest) and it would close the big bull gap the market left behind. Third and final target, which is the most unreasonable one for now, is 2200 which is the 50% retracement from the whole bull trend since 2018.
Invalidation is above 3050.
short term: Neutral. Lower highs and higher lows. Market is in a triangle again and in balance around 2650.
medium-long term: Will only give one above 2760 or below 2560.
current swing trade: None
