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2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - wti crude oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Relentless selling on every rip. Bulls can’t catch a break and only a daily close above 75 will change that. Bears will likely get 70 tomorrow and then we will either see some bigger support or acceleration downwards. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 75 bull case: Well, some bulls are buying heavily for an hour or two and then it crumbles again. Bulls have no arguments and they better make 70 support or 65 is next. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears are selling every rip. That’s about it. Their next target is 70 and for now I think it could be support for longer but we will have to see. I currently not trading this much. Bears have a wedge down and are still inside a bigger bear channel. Try to look for shorts close to the upper bear trend line with stop 75.2. Invalidation is a daily close above 75. short term: Bearish on pull-backs higher for target 70 but then neutral again. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling every big rip continues to be the name of the game.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2
2025-02-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong bull trend from the open and I now have several measured moves that lead to 21800 and 22k. It would be surprising if bulls could not get it tomorrow or Friday. Can only get bearish again below 21550ish. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21550. key levels: 21400 - 22000 bull case: Bulls continue with higher highs and higher lows but the highs are barely higher. They will likely get another ath over the next 2 days but the upside will probably be very limited around 22k. Pullback has to stay above 21550ish but best would be to stay above 21600. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: If bulls can not claim 21800 tomorrow, I do think we have a decent chance of a big reversal but for now, bears have completely given up and they need a bull trend line break to turn market neutral again. Invalidation is above 22100. short term: Bullish for 22k if we stay above 21550ish and if we get 21800 tomorrow early. 22k is possible over the next 2 days. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying anywhere I guess.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
Obvious Long on Soybeans Soybeans have been consolidating for some time between the yellow and red trend lines after finding support just above the 1500 week ma. Corn has led the market with downward action and now leads it with upward trajectory. Soy's have finally broken out of the RSI downtrend they've been in for almost 4 years. It seems obvious that Soybeans will follow corn and move to the green line at the very least. The stochastic RSI on the monthly has had a confirmed cross up signaling bu8llish momentum in the next several months. For reference corn had a confirmed cross up last fall. The price I'm expecting is 12.5 a 15-17% gain from todays prices. If corn can keep moving higher the next target for soybeans is 14ish. I will start booking my soybeans for the 2025 season if we can get a 10-15% gain from here. I'm a farmer from Canada and have been studying charts for about 8 years now. i started implementing my TA into commodity futures a few years ago. Thanks for reading
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by andrewcation1979
2
GOLD constantly renews ATH, global trade conflict risksOANDA:XAUUSD spiked to a new record high, with continued upward momentum pushing the relative strength index (RSI) into overbought territory. Upcoming changes in US trade policy could support precious metals prices as they will increase uncertainty about the outlook for global economic growth. Against this backdrop, monetary authorities may still face pressure to take measures to protect their economies, even though US President Donald Trump has postponed tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Additionally, the risk of policy mistakes by major central banks could push gold prices higher as gold becomes more attractive as an alternative to fiat currencies. After Mexico and the United States reached an agreement to postpone tariffs, Canada did the same and the world's attention immediately turned to China. However, a sudden easing appears unlikely after China retaliated against the US's comprehensive tariffs on Tuesday and warned some US companies, including Google, that they could face sanctions. While global markets welcomed the US postponement of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the partial easing does not eliminate long-running trade tensions in Asia. A planned phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday did not take place, a sign that relations between the two sides remain frosty. However, China's tariff measures will not officially take effect until February 10, giving Trump and Xi Jinping time to reach a "deal." While currency markets still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year (each time by 25 basis points), inflationary pressures from US tariffs are increasing, which makes the path of monetary policy through 2025 still very uncertain. On the daily chart, OANDA:XAUUSD renewed its all-time high after reaching the target increase at 2,846 USD, which readers noted in the previous issue. With that said, a break above this key technical level would qualify gold for a new bull run, and the target would then be around $2,878 in the short term rather than the original price point of $2,900. Although the RSI has entered the overbought zone, there are no signs of a decline indicating that the gold price may correct with the uptrend depicted by the line. As long as gold remains in/above the price channel, it still has a short-term trend to the upside, with the current position suitable for a new bull cycle to be opened. Notable locations will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,846 – 2,824USD Resistance: 2,878 – 2,900USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2863 - 2861⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2867 →Take Profit 1 2856 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2851 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2823 - 2825⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2819 →Take Profit 1 2830 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2835
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 03 - Feb 07]Gold prices have just completed an accumulation period and this week broke out to a record high. Specifically, gold price increased quite strongly from 2,732 USD/oz to 2,817 USD/oz, then decreased and closed the week at 2,799 USD/oz. The White House announced that from February 1, 2025, the US will impose a tax of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on goods from China. This information caused global financial markets to fluctuate strongly. US stocks plunged, Treasury bond yields increased, while gold and USD became safe havens for cash flow. Gloomy US economic data and the risk of tariff escalation have pushed gold prices to a record high. After a week focusing on interest rates and inflation, the market next week will focus on the labor market with the December non-farm payrolls report. Gold traders will also monitor many other important data such as ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment report, and Bank of England policy decision, along with a preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. Next week's gold price may still maintain an upward trend when supported by many factors, along with the positive views of investors who expect gold prices to reach higher levels in the near future. 📌Technically, after reaching a record price above the threshold of 2,817 USD/oz, on the weekly chart, the average price of gold has also exceeded the threshold of 2,335 USD/oz. This shows that the average price of gold is higher, creating room for further increases in gold prices. A shorter-term perspective with the H4 chart, if next week's gold price benefits from worse economic data, the price will break out of the old peak of 2817 and rise above the 2850 threshold. If the resistance level is not broken, the gold price will temporarily decrease and adjust to around the EMA89 moving average line of the H4 chart, around the 2738 mark. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,785 – 2,774 – 2,762USD Resistance: 2,802 – 2,817 – 2,824USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2851 - 2849⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2855 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2737 - 2739⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2733
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
2025-02-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Gap is still open but bulls making higher lows. Can go both ways tomorrow and it will probably be another news-driven impulse. 50% retracement is 21560 on my chart and we are close to it, so don’t try to be clever and think you know which way the breakout will happen. Odds are even. Wait for it an hop along. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21600. key levels: 21000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls making higher lows but failed to close the gap. I don’t think we have seen strong selling at 21600 but since we have not moved down either, bulls chances of a breakout are as good as those for the bears. Bull targets are 21650, then 21755 and finally 22000. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: I won’t make stuff up here. below 21550 bears are favored again but for now they are obviously not doing enough. First target is 21500 and then 21400. If 400 won’t hold, we quickly move down to 21200 again. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Bullish above 21600 for 700/800. If we break below 21450, we will likely test 400 and then if bears are strong, below 21370 we go for 21200 again. Most likely is a continuation sideways between 21370 - 21550. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying the double bottom 21400. Big bars with huge tails below at a big round number. Just buy it.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Higher highs and higher lows. Market have formed another bull wedge but until bears break below 21500 again, we can’t know for sure that we top out around 21700. Bears need something big tomorrow or we will likely reverse the complete sell-off and go above 22000 again. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21300 - 22000 bull case: Bulls want all those stops above the start of the sell-off on Friday and print 22k. They have closed the gap and closed today at the highs. They are in control and favored to continue higher. Can you long above 21600? I would not. We will likely get better pull-backs to 21550 or the 1h 20ema where r:r will be better. Invalidation is below 21450ish. bear case: Bears need a big surprise tomorrow or we will go higher again. They failed to make lower lows again and every bear bar after EU open printed big tails below it. Sure sign that bears are weak, despite the decent selling during Globex session. First target for bears is 21500 and if they get below 21450ish, they are favored to break below the bull wedge and go down further. Below targets are 21350, 21200 and then 21000. Invalidation is above 21900. short term: Neutral. Can go both ways but I think bulls are favored as long as the bull wedge holds. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying US open since bears just gave up after the gap close. Shorting 700 was also decent since every new high was heavily sold this week.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2025-02-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Huge gap down and bulls tried their best in making this an endless pull-back. Bears defended the gap to 21800 and even the Globex gap to 21700. As long as that stays open, bears can dream of a second leg down or at least retesting the lows. current market cycle: bull trend until we get a daily close below 21600. key levels: 21000 - 22000 bull case: Bulls bought the lows and closed the day 200 points higher. We have a clear bull wedge/channel up and as long as we don’t break below support, bulls can have an endless pull-back and move higher. Problem for them is that they were to weak to close the gap to 21700/800. Bulls now need to stay above 21450 and continue higher. If they poke couple more times at 21550, it will likely break and we move quickly higher. Bulls are not favored though. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears kept the gap open, Hooray. They need to break below 21450 and the bull wedge. Targets below are today’s open price 21398 and then 21200. My daily chart has a third bear target at 21080 and xetra closed 21428. The daily 20ema is there and a big open bull gap. Futures came very close to it, so it’s possible that this was all the bears get for now. Invalidation is above 21600. short term: Bullish above 21600 for 700/800. If we break below 21450, we will likely test 400 and then if bears are strong, below 21370 we go for 21200 again. Most likely is a continuation sideways between 21370 - 21550. medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full bear mode. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying 21400 was decent for many scalps.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD corrected and recovered, as the US Dollar soaredOANDA:XAUUSD Spot prices fell below 2,780 USD/ounce and recovered slightly. As of the time this article was completed, gold prices were trading at around 2,783 USD/ounce, as the strong US Dollar overshadowed safe haven demand. after the United States announced tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China. On February 1, US President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China. The United States will also impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada. On the evening of February 2 local time, Trump announced that he would "definitely" impose new tariffs on the European Union. While these developments typically boost safe-haven demand for precious metals, the stronger dollar and interest rate outlook have offset those pressures. The inflationary impact of tariffs could cause borrowing costs to remain high, which could put pressure on gold as it does not pay interest, while a stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold expensive. red and less attractive. However, the current price decline is not something to worry about for the uptrend of gold prices, and in terms of general fundamental assessment, it still has a positive outlook in the near future when there are too many risks. with the potential for a long-lasting trade war. On the daily chart, OANDA:XAUUSD recovered after approaching the 0.236% trendline Fibonacci extension and is currently trading around 2,783USD. With its current position, gold still has conditions to increase in price with the price channel as the main trend and main support from the EMA21. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in the green uptrend. Although the room for growth is not much, it does not mean it is over. If gold breaks above the $2,785 technical level it will have upside conditions with a target then around $2,800 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci extension. As long as gold remains within the price channel, above EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,774 – 2,762USD Resistance: 2,785 – 2,800USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2827 - 2825⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2831 →Take Profit 1 2820 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2815 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2769⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2763 →Take Profit 1 2774 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2779
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Huge rejection right under the previous lower high, which now makes it 3 failed attempts to get above 22k and find acceptance. The selling on Friday was surprising enough to expect follow-through because many traders got trapped. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20000 - 22500 bull case: Bulls need to keep this a higher low above 21400 or risk that market will go much lower to 21200 or even 20600. The 50% retracement of this trading range is 21600 and market stopped around that price on Friday. No matter how you want to draw this right now, it’s either a descending triangle or a trading range and the bulls are not favored to buy this rejection again. They need a bigger surprise than the bears on Friday to stop this from going down. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears have now the best chance of doing another deep pullback below 21000. The surprise on Friday was big enough that we can expect follow-through selling. First bear target is to make a new low below 21419 and then we have 21200 as bigger previous support. Last target for next week would be around 20800 where market decides if we make lower lows or continue in this trading range under the ath. If you look at the weekly NDX chart, you can see that we are also in a bigger diamond pattern, which is just a form of a trading range with expanding and now contracting ranges. Invalidation is above 22000. short term: Bearish. I do think the top 21965 will hold and we go down from here. For now I doubt we will make lower lows below 20800 though. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear trend lines
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Market is probably finding a bottom here around 72 and on the 4h chart this looks like a lower low major trend reversal. Confirmation would only be above 74 though. So any longs with stop below 71.8 are a good trade from the current structure. Bears have tried to make meaningful lower lows but the Monday low 72.39 was only broken by 47 ticks. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 71 - 80 bull case: Bulls let it go a bit below 74 but it does look like they want to buy this more aggressively, given the last 2 big bull bars from Friday. They need to make higher highs now and then I don’t think many bears want to fight this after they have tried to get the market below 71 for a whole week. The 50% retracement for the complete bull trend was around 74 and for the bear leg from 79 down to 72 is around 76. So my first target for the bulls is finding acceptance above 74 and then 76. On the weekly chart you can see than bulls kept it way above the breakout price of 69, so once we are seeing decent 1h closes above 73, they have taken control of the market again. Invalidation is below 71. bear case: Bears want to continue sideways between 71 and 74. The longer they do this, the better for them because we are still below the daily 20ema. Market has gone nowhere the past 5 days but at least the bears closed 4 out of 5 days red. Their issue is, that they can not find sellers below 72 so the market will try only so many times at a support price before it tries the other way or strongly breaks below it. I do think we will see a bigger impulse either on Monday or Tuesday and my money is not on the bears right now. Invalidation is above 75. short term: Slightly bullish until we get a 1h close above 74, then really bullish for 78/80. Bearish only below 71 and on very strong selling pressure. Neutral 71 - 74. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: None chart update: Added broken bear trend line and possible very shallow bull trend lines on higher tf.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 2.02 - 2.07.2025Last Week : Globex opened inside VAL under the Weak stops from previous sessions that we have market off which signaled weakness, under 6100 market started taking out lower stops and key areas which gave a big flush into lower Value during ON hours to start the week but we ran out of selling after looking below lower VAL and rotated out of Value from there. RTH Session did not bring anymore size selling, instead we were able to hold above Value take in all the Supply and move back into/above upper Edge which brough stability and pushed us into 6114 - 064 Intraday Range where we found balance. End of week price made a push into upper Value again but the move was done during ON lower Volume hours and once we hit the bigger area of supply/where we previously found bigger sellers over 6144 the whole push came apart and gave us another move under VAL into the Edge where we closed right at a big area without really breaking under. This Week : This week is really tricky to try and call because we have new month starting, we had some news over the weekend which has made a lot of people bearish or at least think that we should be bearish and either open on gap down or continue lower, we have seen strong selling from above areas which probably trapped buyers to give us more weakness BUT as much as I like to cheer for the downside and a good correction most of the time as I am a short seller, we have to be careful here because we are at important HTF areas which if we don't get the needed volume to stay under could bring stability and continue to give us balancing action over them. We will have to see what we do on the open tonight and during ON sessions to really get a better picture but we can have a plan and keep things in mind that IF they start happening then we can be ready. Daily TF for now is still in uptrend after a failed correction in mid January and we are just grinding over smaller Daily MA with buying interest running out over 6100s which is giving us this sideways/selling action, weekly TF also grinding over its smaller MA and has closed right around weekly balance mid area after failing to hold under its low which is in 940s this could mean that we may potentially continue holding and grinding/sideways with weakness until we see some bigger change. Daily Edge top is around 6070 - 40s we would need to either see a push that can close under 50s to signal acceptance back in lower HTF Range or a push under with continuation to/through lower VAH which can then bring in more sellers and give us continuation towards lower targets at VAL/Edge and if things get really ugly to push us through 933 - 913 Edge from where we need to watch out for further continuation towards our Previous Distribution Balance. On the other hand we need to be careful forcing the short side under 6060-50s unless market can clearly show us that it wants to be under, if it does not then we can watch for us to stay inside Current Intraday Range where we could balance and maybe tighten up the ranges as things have been pretty wild, if this will be the case then we could see stronger sells coming from areas closer to above VAL and from inside/above it, weakness from VAL can continue until we can push into Value and start balancing around the Mean area without getting back under 6114.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: 1h 20ema is flat as your first girlfriend. Don’t over analyze this trading range. 50% of it is around 21560 and we are seeing bulls buying dips, taking the stairs while bears violently crash the elevator down in between. Will likely see a bigger impulse tomorrow or Monday. I have no bigger opinion on which side will get it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21300 - 21780 bull case: Bulls need to close the big gap to 21900 and maybe some points above to get all the stops and turn the market truly neutral again. For now bears are defending it well, which is bad for the bulls. Bulls have going for them that they are printing higher highs and higher lows and are trading above the daily 20ema but as long as the gap stays open, they are not doing enough. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears only argument is the open gap to 21900 but other than that, they are fumbling it again. If try get to 21450 or below tomorrow and fail again to print lower lows below 21350, odds favor the bulls to rally hard into the weekend. Invalidation is above 21900. short term: Neutral as can be. 21560 is my mid point for this and mean reversing was profitable the past 2 days. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 21450 or selling above 21700 has been good the past 2 days. Do it until it clearly is not working anymore.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Finally some higher highs again. Market could now transition into a wider trading range and 70 - 76 is my rough guess for now. Bulls need to keep the tiny bit momentum going tomorrow and break above the bear channel and trade above 74 again. If bears dip it below 72.6, we could very well print a lower low below 72 and the range might also expand to the downside. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 70 - 76 bull case: Bulls made the first higher high again and need follow-through badly. Above 74 the bear trend is for sure over and a trading range is most likely. Good for the bulls is, that on the daily chart we are still trading above the breakout price which was roughly 70. If they can reverse this strongly, they have a chance of retesting the highs over the next weeks. For now I think they have to be content with staying above 72 and maybe get to 74 again. Invalidation is below 70. bear case: Bears want to keep the market below the daily 20ema and prevent bulls from making meaningful higher highs above 74. The bear channel is still valid and on the daily chart the past 3 trading days look like a weak two-legged pullback to the moving average and that is usually a very good buy/sell signal in the direction of the trend. Bears want to print a new low below 72 and then testing 70. Invalidation is above 74. short term: Neutral. Bullish above 74 and bearish below 72. medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying below 72.4 was good since Monday.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-29 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Not much news. Trade the bull channel until broken. I won’t try to pick the top again. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 21400 - 22000 bull case: Bulls next targets are 21800, 900 and the next big number 22000. We are in a clear bull channel and bulls are in full control. Longs closer to the 1h 20ema are printing, so trade them until they stop working. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears doing absolutely nothing right now. Below 20400 we would have clearly broken out of the channel and best bears could hope for then is sideways to down movement to 21200. For now I don’t think you should even thinking about shorting any of this. Invalidation is above 22100. short term: Bullish on pull-backs and target 21800 and then 22000. Still only scalps though. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buy anywhere.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears fumbled again, who could have known. Can’t hold the full bear mode when seeing this price action. Weak wedge rally up to ath now with decent sell spikes in between. Don’t try to pick the top. Let the market show you clearly it wants to go down again, like it did on Friday. Until then, long pull-backs because market is just going up. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 21300 - 22000 bull case: Bulls want a new ath and print 21700. If bears step aside enough, we could actually get to 22000. The bull wedge is the pattern to trade until clearly broken. I doubt bulls will let this drop below 21500 before we see 21700. My second target is 21800 and last one is the obvious 22000. No idea where this might turn again but for now you should not think about bigger shorts. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears sold new highs but that’s about it. The bull wedge is broad enough for both sides to make money. Will we see bigger selling above 21600 tomorrow? I doubt it. Bears can only really think about bigger shorts if we break below 21500. If you have too many bearish thoughts, just look for more time at the daily dax xetra chart. Should go away then. Invalidation is above 21700. short term: Bullish on pull-backs and target 21700 or higher. Only scalps though. I still think this will crash at least 20% over the next months but for now I am not willing to risk being wrong about the top and having to scale in 500-1000 points higher. medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again. current swing trade: None. trade of the day: Buying any dip or selling any new high. Sounds way easier than done but that’s what happened today. Market respect the trend lines perfectly. Show those charts to people who say technical analysis is whatever.
EUREX:FDXS1!Long
by priceactiontds
2025-01-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bulls won the decision again and we are on our way to close the gap to 21900 and likely print 22k again. It would be a huge surprise if the gap would stay open. Tomorrow is FOMC and it could be good for a huge surprise to either side. No matter what, I will be flat going into it. Decent looking bull wedge up now and I expect a better pull-back to maybe the 1h 20ema before we can have more upside tomorrow. Dips should stay above 21400. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21400 - 22000 bull case: Bulls took control again after the nasty bear trap on the US open. They are once again in full control and their next targets are 21700, gap close to 21900 and then obviously 22k. The breakout retest is 21420 and any pull-back should stay above or this could become something else. Invalidation is below 21400. bear case: Bears sold the double top 21420 for a decent 200+ point sell-off but bulls were having none of it afterwards. Bears had to give up and we are on our way up again. Best bears can hope for is to scalp 50-100 points on new highs. Bears really have nothing here. Jpow could help but until then I expect market to trade much higher already. Could this move up become a lower high below 22000 or could the gap to 21900 stay open? Obviously yes but for now the buying is strong and I don’t want to hold swing shorts when bulls are in full control again. No matter how amazing the selling on Monday was. Invalidation is above 21900. short term: Bullish on pull-backs. Bears fumbled it again and next target is the gap close to 21900. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the bear trap around 21200 once it turned violently to the upside. Market could not get below 21100 which was a warning to the bears, that we are printing higher lows after higher highs.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds