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#202508 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Much more neutral again, since we are exactly at the 50% retracement of the recent bull leg. We are in a 4 month trading range and the middle is the worst place to take trades, at least on higher time frames. I do think bears will get follow-through and we will see 21300 or lower next week but we could also have a bounce first. Is this also still a bull trend? Yes. Only below 20600 we are making meaningful lower lows and market would have a chance of testing 20000. If you look at the weekly or monthly chart, there is no doubt that this is still a bull trend until we go below the 2024-08 lows below 17900. These time frames are good to look at on a weekly basis to remind you where we are but your daytrading should not be affected by it too much if at all. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 21000 - 22500 bull case: 22k failed and we went down to the 50% retracement. Bulls just have to buy here or we will go down 300-500 points lower early next week. What are the odds that this was another spike and now we strongly move back up again? That’s the question probably everyone is trying to guess. All previous spikes over the past 2 weeks were bought heavily and this could be as well. I have no opinion on who is likely to win this, so I think it’s 50/50, as it’s probably the best answer, given that we are at the most neutral price again. Targets above are 21950 breakout price, 22000 big round number and then likely the high at 22320 or even 22500 for a new ath. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Very strong selling on Friday by the bears. The odds of this happening on an Opex day are low. We are not at the 50% retracement and I have no idea if we get immediate follow-through down or not. Every time I have no bias, I am neutral and expect sideways movement. Since the bears closed the week at the very low, they remain in control until proven otherwise, no matter my neutral stance. If they keep it below the 15m or 1h 20ema, we could just continue down. The next lower targets are 21400 which would close the first gap and then 21200 which is my next bull trend line but that one is a big uncertainty. Below is obviously 21000 and I think the odds are decent we could get there over the course of next week. Invalidation is above 20900. short term: Neutral but if bears keep the bounce very shallow and below the 15m or 1h ema, I lean heavily bearish for 21400 or even 21000. The momentum is clearly on the bear side but given that Friday was Opex and some fishy news came out, I’d rather be neutral going into next week. The high was certainly high enough to qualify as another rejection above 22000 and market is free to test lower or even make new lows. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. current swing trade: None chart update: Only removed lines and added potential targets for both sides. Only clear pattern right now are the bull wedges on the weekly/monthly chart.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
#202508 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: How fitting that the week where I gave up on bearish targets, that we start to see big selling again. Bears certainly surprised with the intensity all of a sudden but it’s the nature of markets that highs get retested. After such a climactic move up, it is not wise to get uber bearish on the first sign of bear strength. Market has moved down very quickly now to important magnets and until they are clearly broken, I will not bet on a breakout below. I stop with the xetra update because I always questioned the decision to do xetra analysis as well. Is this really worth it because of the gaps or are futures just as good? What shattered my case was the futures 23000 touch and strong sell-off. You can not convince me that xetra is more important to most algo’s after this. No more xetra, only futures. If you do not trade futures, calculate the difference between eurex dax futures and your symbol and you are good. It’s not that hard and if it is, hit me up and I explain it to you. current market cycle: Bull trend until consecutive daily closes below 22000 key levels: 22000 - 23000 bull case: Bulls see this is a pull-back in a bull trend, down to obvious support. The last time we dipped to the daily 20ema, we rallied 1800 points afterwards. It’s hard to imagine this going to 24000 but I think it’s more likely than continuous selling through the bull trend line and daily ema and 22000. Too much support and important magnets to not expect a bounce. Targets for the bulls are 22400 and then 22600 which is the 50% of the bear leg and then probably already 23000 again. It’s likely that the market has to move sideways first before we can go higher. Right now we are still in a strong sell-off where the market is not touching the 4h ema on the pull-backs. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears are in a spike and channel bear trend and until bulls can make higher highs above 22500 again, bears are in full control. Problem for their case is, who is willing to sell at multiple support in hopes of further downside after such a big rally? We will likely get our answer early on Monday. I think bears are absolutely not favored here and will give up quickly if bulls start the week strong. What I do think is that any upside will probably be limited to around 23000. For now I need to see how Globex opens and if we bottom out around 22200 or need to get to 22000 before we can bounce. Below 21900 I think the odds favor a flush down another 800-1000 points. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral but if bulls show strength, bullish for retest 23000. Problem is that we could go down to 22000 as well and right now I don’t want to risk 300-400 points on longs. Below 21900 this could drop much much lower though. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: None chart update: Highlighted current bull channel.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
Can ES Hold Steady? This week’s data and Nvidia earnings (Feb 26) are pivotal. Options Positioning Volume: High, with daily averages ~1.5M contracts (CME data trends). Expect ~1.7M this week due to macro catalysts. Call vs. Put Skew: Call-heavy (1.4:1), reflecting hedging against a pullback and speculative upside bets. Key Strikes: NTM (6,000–6,050): GEX high (+$300M), IV ~25%, DEX balanced. Gamma pinning likely keeps NYSE:ES stable early week (Feb 24–25) unless data shifts sentiment. OTM Calls (6,100–6,150): GEX moderate (+$150M), VEX positive, IV 30%. Heavy OI (40,000 contracts) at 6,100 suggests a volatility spike target if Nvidia beats and PCE cools. OTM Puts (5,900–5,950): GEX low (+ LSE:80M ), VEX flat, IV ~20%. Put buying reflects downside hedges if PCE surprises hot (>2.7%). Term Structure: March futures (~6,050) in slight contango, but a volatility event (e.g., Nvidia miss) could flip to backwardation, boosting OTM call IV. Key Data Releases and Impact Feb 25 – Consumer Confidence: <110 lifts NYSE:ES to 6,000; >115 pushes to 6,100. Feb 26 – Q4 GDP: <2.5% supports 5,950–6,000; >3% pressures to 5,900 on inflation fears. Feb 26 – Nvidia Earnings: Beat holds 6,050–6,100; miss drops to 5,900–5,950. Feb 28 – PCE: <2.5% lifts to 6,150; >2.7% sinks to 5,900, spiking OTM put volume. Forecast: Range: 5,900–6,150. Base case: 6,000–6,050 unless PCE or Nvidia disrupts.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
NASDAQ Future long: after resitance broken, new support formed Current Analysis: Nasdaq futures are currently facing a critical support at 22100 I see the chance of a Bullish rebound: Support Strength: This support was a resistance in past weeks, then it was broken on Feb 14th and act as support in last 3 days. Additionally, from Dec. 17th to February 12th, price formed a triangle that was broken up on Feb.13th. Expected Movement: If the price successfully breaks above 22100, I expect it to rally towards the $22400 area. Action Plan: Entry Point: entered long with limit order at 22100 Target: Set a target in the $22425 (high of December 17th) Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at 21937.75, below minimum of Feb.20th and with Risk/Reward Ratio of 2.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by dPEngineering
2025-02-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Interesting day ahead of us. Selling was strong but bulls retraced 70% of it already. If bears come around again and keep this a lower high below 22230, it would show some strength and we could expect another test of 22000. The daily chart looks much more bullish than bearish. Big tails below bars and all bars closing above their mid-point. We have also touched the bull trend line above the daily 20ema. If anything I have a long bias but due to Opex I tend to lean neutral for tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22000 - 22500 bull case: Another dip another bad follow-through. Bulls buy it all and they have all the arguments on their side. They bought where they had to and we now have a decent two-legged pull-back to the bull trend line. Market is free to melt higher but tomorrow is opex and I fare best when I lean neutral on those days and trade less. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears can generate enough selling pressure to go down hard but as soon as the momentum is gone, so are the bears and market just reverses. I doubt bears can keep this a lower high and continue inside the bear channel. If they do, a weekly close below 22k would be amazing for them. That is the only target I have for them for tomorrow because I can’t imagine this going below 21900. Above 22200 bears just have to cover and we could accelerate upwards. Invalidation is above 22230. short term: Neutral. No bigger opinion on who wins this tomorrow. Both have reasonable arguments and we are inside the big bull channel and now also inside a bear channel. I wait for strong momentum again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this. trade of the day: Buying 22k. Was close enough to the bull trend line, daily 20ema and bears found no acceptance below it.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD's rise has been steady, limited by its all-time peakDuring the Asian trading session, OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery at about 2,930 USD/ounce; Yesterday the price of gold skyrocketed to 36USSD. On this trading day, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to cause major volatility in the gold market. On Tuesday, as US President Trump's tariff plan sparked market concerns about US economic growth, funds poured into the gold market in search of a safe haven. Spot gold closed up 36.28 USD, equivalent to 1.25%, at 2,934.87 USD/ounce. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting at 02:00 Hanoi time on Thursday. The market expects more information from the minutes on how decision-makers assess the risks of a global trade war that could be triggered by Trump's tariff policy. Last week's data showed the US consumer price index (CPI) rose at its fastest pace in nearly 18 months in January, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's stance that it is in no rush to cut interest rates. The minutes will be closely scrutinized for clues about the Fed's path forward, especially in light of recent data showing solid price growth, weak consumer sentiment and weaker-than-expected retail sales. If the Fed meeting minutes have a tough stance, the US Dollar could be boosted, which would put gold prices at risk of falling. And vice versa, if the minutes show the possibility that the Fed will continue with its goal of cutting interest rates, the USD will weaken and create room for gold prices to increase. CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows that the market actually sees no chance of a rate cut in March and about a 20% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold's gains were temporarily halted by its all-time high but the technical outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish. The technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the main trend and main support by EMA21. As long as gold remains within the price channel, above EMA21, pullbacks should only be considered short-term corrections without changing the trend, and should be seen as a buying opportunity. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not really sent out any reliable signals for a possible downward correction. To summarize, the intraday technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,911 – 2,900 – 2,881USD Resistance: 2,942USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2955 →Take Profit 1 2943 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2937 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2904 - 2906⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2900 →Take Profit 1 2912 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2918
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Feb 17 - Feb 21]OANDA:XAUUSD have leveled off after a series of record increases, ending the week below 2,900 USD/oz due to strong profit-taking activities. The main reason is that geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe have eased, reducing the need for safe havens. President Donald Trump had a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending hostilities in Ukraine and suspending tariffs until a review is completed in April 2025. Gold prices may continue to adjust in the short term, but in the long term, safe haven demand due to economic instability and trade war will push prices up. In addition, central banks stepped up gold purchases, with more than 1,000 tons in 2024 - much higher than the average level in the 2010-2021 period, contributing to supporting the rise of gold. China launched a pilot project allowing 10 insurance companies to invest up to 1% of assets in gold. It is forecast that these companies can buy up to 28 billion USD of gold (about 300 tons), accounting for 6.5% of annual physical gold demand, contributing to boosting the market. SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES NEXT WEEK: Tuesday: Empire State Manufacturing Index (economic index measuring business conditions of the manufacturing industry in New York state, USA. This index is announced monthly by the US Federal Reserve (FED) New York branch, based on a survey of manufacturers in the region). Wednesday: US housing data (New homes and construction permits), FED meeting minutes. Thursday: US Weekly Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. Friday: S&P Flash PMI, US Existing Home Sales 📌Technically, on chart D1, after surpassing the peak at 2790, the gold price increased another 150 and tends to adjust again. Currently, the support level to pay attention to is around the dynamic resistance level as well as the hard resistance level at 2790, while the resistance level is set around 2942. Next week, if the gold price maintains the trading level above the 2800 threshold, it is expected that the momentum will increase to set a new record high price. In case the price declines and adjusts too deeply, there is a risk that the gold price will be subject to downward selling pressure. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,881 – 2,857USD Resistance: 2,900 – 2,942USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2951 - 2949⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2955 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2789 - 2791⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2785
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD steadies at high levels despite FOMC looks toughDuring the early morning trading session on Thursday (February 20), spot gold prices suddenly increased rapidly in the short term and gold prices stabilized above 2,940 USD/ounce, approaching the historic high set in the previous trading day. Trump just issued another tariff threat On Wednesday evening local time, US President Trump reiterated that he will announce tariffs on cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. “I will announce tariffs next month or sooner on autos, semiconductors, chips, pharmaceuticals, lumber and a number of other items that have a significant impact on the United States,” Trump said. On Tuesday, Trump said he intended to impose tariffs of "about 25%" on autos, along with similar tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Earlier this month, the United States announced a 10% tariff on imports from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. Gold prices hit a record high on Wednesday, but the Fed meeting minutes sent gold prices down a bit Gold prices hit an all-time high in early trading on Wednesday as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs rattled investors, but later retreated from record highs as the dollar strengthened following a tough Federal Reserve meeting minutes. "Participants said that, as long as the economy remains near maximum employment, they would like to see inflation progress further before making additional adjustments to the target range of the federal funds rate," minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 28-29 meeting said. Assessment: The meeting minutes highlight the cautious approach of policymakers after they cut interest rates by 100 basis points in the final months of last year. Some officials have said they want to see inflation continue to fall toward the Fed's 2% target before supporting another rate cut. Minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting showed concerns about inflation risks, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts. Gold prices decreased after the Fed meeting minutes, but in general this is not a significant impact because the market is still accepting risks from President Trump. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Technically, gold is up 0.30% on the day, temporarily in front of the 0.382% Fibonacci extension considered the nearest resistance. Once gold breaks above $2,946, it will likely continue to renew its all-time high with a target then around $2,971 in the short term. The intraday technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 2,921USD Resistance: 2,942 – 2,971USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2971 - 2969⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2975 →Take Profit 1 2963 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2957 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2909 - 2911⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2905 →Take Profit 1 2917 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2923
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2025-02-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Biggest bear bar since November and we are close to the elections. Market printed 23000 to the tick and now what? Tops usually get a retest, which can be a higher or lower high. Given today’s strength and the timing of this move, it’s tough to hold any bigger bias for the next two days. current market cycle: bull trend (was trading range before and that was obviously wrong, sorry about that) key levels: 22500 - 23200 bull case: As long as this big bull gap down to 22000 stays open, bulls are fine. If bears close it, market turns neutral for the time being. We have elections on Sunday and at this point it’s probably a bumpy ride for the next two days. 22500 should be huge support for the bulls or we flush to 22000. Xetra high was 22935 which is too close to 23000 to not expect it to get hit. Can bulls buy the lows at 22500 in hopes for an immediate reversal? I doubt it. Too strong and we will probably need some time around (sideways movement) 22500 first. The big bull trend line is somewhat 250 points lower and if we get there, I expect huge buying. My bias is still bullish since I expect bigger upside from here than downside. Invalidation is below 21950. bear case: Bears had a huge day and closed below 22500, which is really god for them. Their next target is the big bull trend line around 22250 and if they have enough momentum, they can overshoot down to 22000. 22000 is also the 50% retracement of this recent bull leg, the gap close from last Wednesday and the daily 20ema. Big magnets there but I am cautious after big up and then big down. What I absolutely can’t see for now is anything below 21950. If we get down to 22000, we will probably see big buying for a retest of the highs. Invalidation is above 23200. short term: Neutral and cautious. Big up, big down, big confusion. If bears get follow-through, they have big magnets below but I highly doubt the bull trend line will be broken. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Sell anywhere. Market did not touch the 10m 20ema for 500 points down.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
#BTCUSDT #4h (Bitget Futures) descending channel breakoutBitcóin just regained 20EMA support, printing a three-white-soldiers pattern. Looks good for bullish continuation from here. ⚡️⚡️ #BTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: Bitget Futures Signal Type: Regular (Long) Leverage: Isolated (10.0X) Amount: 4.9% Entry Zone: 98356.7 - 97312.9 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 102615.4 1) 106215.9 1) 109816.3 Stop Targets: 1) 93834.3 Published By: @Zblaba CRYPTOCAP:BTC BITGET:BTCUSDT.P #4h #Bitcoin #PoW bitcoin.org Risk/Reward= 1:1.2 | 1:2.1 | 1:3.0 Expected Profit= +48.9% | +85.7% | +122.5% Possible Loss= -40.9% Estimated Gaintime= 1-2 weeks
Long
by TradingOn
1
TONUSDT: Bearish Setup or Bulls' Last Stand? Hey, traders! 😱📉 BINANCE:TONUSDT.P is in a high-risk zone, and the market is tense. We see the price testing support at *3.6191 USDT*, while resistance at *3.6891 USDT* is keeping the pressure on. The classic scenario: if support fails, we could see a sell-off. But what if the whales are lurking, ready to turn the price around? 🔑 *Key Levels:* *Support:* *3.6191 USDT* – bulls are defending this level aggressively. *3.0087 USDT* – deep liquidity zone, where the price could drop if support breaks. **Resistance:** **3.6891 USDT** – if sellers hold this level, the downtrend continues. **3.8000 USDT** – a breakout above here could mean a bullish reversal. 🚩 *Trading Strategy:* *Short Entry:* After breaking *3.6191 USDT* with a retest. *Stop-Loss:* Above *3.6891 USDT* – if bears are wrong, it's time to exit. *Profit Targets:* *3.5000 USDT* – quick scalp target. *3.3000 USDT* – solid take-profit zone. *3.0087 USDT* – full breakdown potential if panic selling intensifies. 📈 *Technical Analysis Insights:* Sellers are dominating – market structure remains bearish. Volume shows liquidity accumulating in this range. If we see a bounce from *3.6191 USDT*, a short squeeze could trigger a sharp move up. 💡 *What to Watch For?* *Manage risk!* A downtrend doesn’t mean going all-in. *Wait for confirmation!* No clear break = possible liquidity grab. *Watch volume!* False breakouts are common without strong volume support. Is BINANCE:TONUSDT.P about to dump, or will bulls hold the line? Share your thoughts below! 🧐🔥
Short
by Max_Pr0fit
2025-02-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears started the day very bearish and printed decent bear bars down to 22200 but bears failed to find sellers below 22130 and we went sideways 22100-22200 until we saw bigger buying coming through again and bears gave up late into the day. Bulls closed it between Friday’s close and today’s open, so the day was neutral as can be. Bears failed to get down to 22k which is my line in the sand for them. We have to expect higher prices, given that this was a shallow sideways correction on the daily chart. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22100 - 22500 bull case: Bulls happily buying every dip and bears could not even touch the breakout price of 22094 (January high). Can only see today’s price action as bullish and on the 4h chart it’s a two-legged pullback to the 20ema with a decent buy signal bar now. Longs with stop 22090 are reasonable for target 22450+. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears tried an failed. They made some points and then covered as bigger buying came late in the day. They need a strong 1h bar close below 22k to turn this neutral again. For now they can only hope to sell new highs and scalp some points. Most bears wait for 22450ish and if we find more sellers there. Invalidation is above 22150. short term: Bullish. Below 22k that changes but for now you can buy every good bullish signal bar after a dip. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this. trade of the day: Very good bearish signal bar going into US open and then follow-through to 22200. Market then printed bar 36 + 37 and the big tails below was a good sign to be cautious with shorts because we are finding more buyers in that area, so the downside might probably be limited. Market then went sideways until we made a lower low major trend reversal with bar 53 + 54. 55 was the bar to go long on but could also have waited for bar 56. This has now also build a head & shoulders bottom and a measured move brings us above 22300 again.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
2