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Futurestrading

BTC trend lines and fib levels#BTC/USDT $BTC trend lines and fibonacci levels. price broke out from descending trend line, but faced another descending trend line that is the same with resistance zone between 0.5 and 0.6 fib levels of 4h swing down. 🐮 break out from this zone can increase price toward next descending trend line that is the same with 0.382 and 0.5 fib level of daily swing down around $23k and $24700. 🐻 rejection from current resistance can cause a pullback to broken line or drop price to $18k and even $16k
by parissap
EOS at lower line of falling wedge#EOS/USDT $EOS is above lower line of lower zone of long term falling wedge pattern. 🐮 holding the lower line of wedge as support will increase price to resistance zone around $1.2. and breaking out from this zone will head up price to upper line of wedge that is the same with resistance zone around $1.6. 🐮🐮 as you know if break out from upper line it will increase as high as the height of pattern. 🐻 breaking down from descending support will invalid this analysis.
Long
by parissap
Short Nasdaq futures or Nasdaq ETF.For futures traders, this trade involves shorting the nasdaq in anticipation of a resumed down trend tomorrow. While I do not like to present entertaining suggestions for overnight futures positions, due to low volume price volatility and potential manipulation at night, one could take a short position after the futures market opens at 6 p.m. Understand that this kind of trading presents an extreme risk of loss, because of the nature of futures or shorting stock. Futures is by far, the most risky. Full emini (/nqu22, for instance) bears a 29x leverage, according to the Chicago Mercantile exchange. do learn the risks and your suitablity before entering into any futures trade. I will not suggest a stop loss. That is at your discretion. However, if you don't set it above today's high's the risk of getting stopped out increases substantially. Conversely, the higher your stop loss, in a short position, the greater your risk is in terms of amount you can lose. If you opt not to trade at night, it is entirely possible that the futures market will go lower in the night, making a gapped down situation in the morning, which is a movement that may confirm bearishness, but also changes the risk / reward scenario. Such a downward night move may make the entry point less favorable, if a rally follows to close the gap on open of the exchange at 9:30 a.m. The target profit point, using the above chart might be 11568, above the double bottom of Thurday's trading day (11547). Theory: The market is heading lower, having in my opinion exhausted the multi day rally against the trend. The market may head substantially lower than the profit target. However, taking substantial profits, and then determining whether or not some recovery is likely is much preferred for many speculators over longer duration trades with increased time of exposure / market risk. Other considerations: There may be substantial buying in the morning, pushing the market higher before the anticipated failure. A still risky move may include waiting to put in an entry upon a failed (short). In that case, I would look for a rally to a point less than today's high's, followed by several minutes that fail to go higher. I might use 3, 3 minute bar charts where a top isn't exceeded. Other's use different points of entry. It depends on price action, so I leave that to your discretion as this is simply an idea for your enjoyment and is offered not as a specific trade, but as a tweakable suggestion to take at your own risk. Bear in mind, if you wait for a failed intraday rallly to enter, you could miss the move. That's part of what makes trading so challenging. It is always better to miss a move than to enter at a point at which you are not confident. Resistance and support are key considerations. I believe this Friday (tomorrow) could be a several hundred point down day. On the other hand, one has to be prepared for a reversal if residual bulls are not ready to close out for the weekend. I hope someone will find my observations interesting and educational entertainment. This is more art that science, as is any market trading, in my opinion. I am in no way to be confused with being a financial advisor.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by ericklee64
In Search of an Edge for Non-Professional TradersCBOT:ZW1! What do Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat have in common? Their prices all go up in a global crisis. In other words, these strategically important commodities are positively correlated with the level of risk. “Risk Up, Price Up; and Risk Down, Price Down”. Everyday non-professional traders (NonProfs) usually have a disadvantage trading these futures contracts. Let’s see who we are up against: • Commercial Firms, including producers, processors, merchants, and major users of the underlying commodities. • Financial Institutions, such as investment banks, hedge funds, asset managers, proprietary trading firms, commodity trading advisors and futures commission merchants. These professional traders (Profs) have industry knowledge, market information, research capabilities, trading technologies, high-speed and seemingly unlimited amount of money. They contribute to about 80% of trading volume for a typical futures contract. So, what could you do in an uphill battle? Recall our Three-Factor Commodity Pricing Model( ): Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Global Crisis Premium In peaceful times, the coefficient of Crisis Premium is zero. The Profs win out easily. When a global crisis breaks out, price pattern may be altered completely. The chart illustrates how CBOT Wheat Futures behaves before and after the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict. Based on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), a baseline futures price reflects all information regarding the Intrinsic Value and Market Sentiment factors. However, the Crisis Premium is unknown to all of us. The Profs could not use fundamental analysis or technical analysis to gain a better understanding of Mr. Putin’s mindset. Few had inside information of the inner working of the Kremlin or the Russian generals, either. Your guesses are just as good as the Profs when it comes to what’s happening next. An analogue: In a close-range hand combat, the Profs have no use for their arsenal of missiles, fighter jets and tanks. NonPros with limited resources are on an equal footing to trade against the Profs. It’s critical to pick a fight that you have a chance to win. Recall that we discussed how to define global crisis with binary outcomes, and select financial instruments based on their responses to those outcomes. ( ) For CBOT Wheat Futures, Ukraine conflict has become the dominant price driver since February 14th. But after four months, we still have no clue when or how the war could end. Let’s define it in two simple outcomes: War and Peace. The first one includes all scenarios that the war would continue or intensify, where the second one could be a peace deal or a victory in favor of either Russia of Ukraine. As a NonProf, you don’t want to dive deep into the impossible task of forecasting the different scenarios. Keep it simple: War = Risk Up, Peace = Risk Down. The probability of either outcome is real. It’s difficult to predict which one is more likely. Therefore, directional trades of Long or Short are both risky. Many event shocks exist to make the wheat price fluctuate. If a major wheat producing country announces an export ban, wheat price could fly because of global market shortage. However, a phone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy could punch wheat price to the ground. Russia is the No. 1 wheat exporter. An end of the conflict could end the sanctions against Russia and increase global supply by 44 million tons of wheat. Looking back in 2018 and 2019, we know how strongly Gold Futures reacted to a call between the U.S. and China. A Long Strangle options strategy may be appropriate under these circumstances. Investor would purchase a Call and a Put option with a different strike price: an out-of-the-money (OTM) call option and an OTM put option simultaneously on the same wheat futures contract. This is based on my belief that wheat futures price could experience a very large movement, but I am unsure of which direction the move will take. The following is an illustration (not an actual trading strategy): September Wheat Futures (ZWU2) is quoted at $10.54/bushel on June 14th. An OTM call with a $12.00 strike price is quoted at 17 cents. An OTM put with a $9.00 strike price is quoted at 4.625 cents. Look at the chart again, you will see wheat price at $7.80 right before the war and up to $13.70 in early March. A Long Strangle will cost $1,081.25, as each call and put contract is based on 5,000 bushels of Chicago wheat. This is the maximum amount you would lose if wheat price stuck at current level in the next two months. A big move, either up or down, could make one of the two trades profitable, and hopefully with enough profit margins to cover the other losing trade. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT:ZW1!
by JimHuangChicago
4
CHZ parallel channel and trend lines#CHZ/USDT $CHZ is trading inside parallel channels. price rejected from upper line of descending channel and now it's at lower line of ascending channel that can act as bearish flag. 🐻 break down from lower line of ascending channel will active bearish flag and price can drop to middle line then maybe lower line of descending channel. 🐮 If bulls success to hold the middle line of descending channel, it is possible that price move upward to touch ascending trend lines around $0.12
by parissap
LBS / Lumber Futures potential long trade incomingMy chart idea illustrates a confluence of fundamental and technical analysis which leads me to believe a long trade in the Lumber futures market may getting close. On the fundamental side: - We have seen Commercial buyers become net long for a whole month, last time this happened was mid 2020 and this then led to a ~130% price rise over 2 months when the price went from roughly $350 up to $820, albeit it was a bumpy ride with numerous gaps up and down along the way. This recent commercial buying activity is shown with the blue above the zero line in the COT report indicator. On the technical side: - There is clear bullish divergence on the daily chart between price and the RSI. Key technical levels to watch: - Volume profile going back almost 1yr (as much as I could fit onto daily chart) shows the biggest volume cluster / Point of Control sits around $620, so price needs to break above this and hold the level to confirm break of down trend. - Coincidently the above mentioned level measures up almost precisely ($618) with a Fibonacci level when using the recent double top as anchor points. - When drawing a simple trend resistance line from the recent high in march and down to current price then you can see that this trend has not been broken yet, however the line recently intersected $620 level. If price breaks the trend then the $620 level shouldn't be far off. - Lastly on the weekly chart price is just touching oversold levels in the RSI. Historically Lumber hasn't prolonged periods at this level, it typically touches or breaks the level and reverses back within a few weeks. In summary it looks like ~$620 is a key level that needs to be broken above and if it can hold that level until weeks end then I'd be looking to position a long entry. The Lumber futures market does offer big reward when it moves however it is very illiquid with tendency to price gap once it starts trending so caution needs to be exercised!
LLong
by gary_trades