VELAS IS IN THE PROGRESS - TO THE TOP, WHERE IT BELONGSDescending Triangle Pattern:
A bearish continuation pattern is forming, typically indicating potential further downside if it breaks below the horizontal support. However, a breakout above the descending resistance could invalidate this pattern and indicate bullish momentum.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels:
$0.0075: A critical support zone. A break below this level could lead to significant downward momentum.
$0.0052: The next potential target for bearish continuation.
Resistance Levels:
$0.0165: Key resistance from the descending triangle trendline.
$0.0202 and $0.0251: Potential targets for a bullish breakout.
$0.0338: A major long-term resistance level.
Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is hovering near 44, showing a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. A move below 30 would indicate oversold conditions, while crossing above 50 could signal bullish momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator:
Currently near oversold territory (15.97), suggesting the potential for a bullish reversal in the short term.
VMACD (Visual MACD):
Divergences observed on the chart indicate a potential bullish reversal. Pay attention to the crossover points.
Market Sentiment:
The ongoing consolidation within the triangle suggests indecision in the market. A clear breakout or breakdown will dictate the next directional move.
Trading Plan
Entry Strategy:
IMMEDIATELY
Exit Strategy:
When you feel good about it :)
Futurestrading
Corn Futures: New All Time Highs Ahead 10x potential CBOT:ZC1! Straight forward MACRO LONG to new ALL TIME HIGH. Easy 2x upside to previous all time high within a year and 5-10x upside within the next couple of years. There is a huge fair value gap or unbalanced zone to the upside (yellow) to be filled. The 3 month chart has finally started to show signs of reversal as price retraced to a key high volume zone (gray) and printed a bullish hammer candle.
Weekly timeframe is lacking strength and looking like it wants to retest the low $400's. Rather wait for a further retrace or jump in upon a break of previous highs.
Timeframes and Correlations in Multi-Asset Markets1. Introduction
Understanding correlations across timeframes is essential for traders and investors managing diverse portfolios. Correlations measure how closely the price movements of two assets align, revealing valuable insights into market relationships. However, these relationships often vary based on the timeframe analyzed, with daily, weekly, and monthly perspectives capturing unique dynamics.
This article delves into how correlations evolve across timeframes, explores their underlying drivers, and examines real-world examples involving multi-asset instruments such as equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. By focusing on these key timeframes, traders can identify meaningful trends, manage risks, and make better-informed decisions.
2. Timeframe Aggregation Effect
Correlations vary significantly depending on the aggregation level of data:
Daily Timeframe: Reflects short-term price movements dominated by noise and intraday volatility. Daily correlations often show weaker relationships as asset prices react to idiosyncratic or local factors.
Weekly Timeframe: Aggregates daily movements, smoothing out noise and capturing medium-term relationships. Correlations tend to increase as patterns emerge over several days.
Monthly Timeframe: Represents long-term trends influenced by macroeconomic factors, smoothing out daily and weekly fluctuations. At this level, correlations reflect systemic relationships driven by broader forces like interest rates, inflation, or global risk sentiment.
Example: The correlation between ES (S&P 500 Futures) and BTC (Bitcoin Futures) may appear weak on a daily timeframe due to high BTC volatility. However, their monthly correlation might strengthen, aligning during broader risk-on periods fueled by Federal Reserve easing cycles.
3. Smoothing of Volatility Across Timeframes
Shorter timeframes tend to exhibit lower correlations due to the dominance of short-term volatility and market noise. These random fluctuations often obscure deeper, more structural relationships. As the timeframe extends, volatility smooths out, revealing clearer correlations between assets.
Example:
ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) exhibit a weaker correlation on a daily basis because they react differently to intraday events. However, over monthly timeframes, their correlation strengthens due to shared drivers like inflation expectations and central bank policies.
By aggregating data over weeks or months, traders can focus on meaningful relationships rather than being misled by short-term market randomness.
4. Market Dynamics at Different Frequencies
Market drivers vary depending on the asset type and the timeframe analyzed. While short-term correlations often reflect immediate market reactions, longer-term correlations align with broader economic forces:
Equities (ES - S&P 500 Futures): Correlations with other assets are driven by growth expectations, earnings reports, and investor sentiment. These factors fluctuate daily but align more strongly with macroeconomic trends over longer timeframes.
Cryptocurrencies (BTC - Bitcoin Futures): Highly speculative and volatile in the short term, BTC exhibits weak daily correlations with traditional assets. However, its monthly correlations can strengthen with risk-on/risk-off sentiment, particularly in liquidity-driven environments.
Safe-Havens (ZN - Treasuries and GC - Gold Futures): On daily timeframes, these assets may respond differently to specific events. Over weeks or months, correlations align more closely due to shared reactions to systemic risk factors like interest rates or geopolitical tensions.
Example: During periods of market stress, ZN and GC may show stronger weekly or monthly correlations as investors seek safe-haven assets. Conversely, daily correlations might be weak as each asset responds to its unique set of triggers.
5. Case Studies
To illustrate the impact of timeframes on correlations, let’s analyze a few key asset relationships:
o BTC (Bitcoin Futures) and ES (S&P 500 Futures):
Daily: The correlation is typically weak (around 0.28) due to BTC’s high volatility and idiosyncratic behavior.
Weekly/Monthly: During periods of broad market optimism, BTC and ES may align more closely (0.41), reflecting shared exposure to investor risk appetite.
o ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures):
Daily: These assets often show weak or moderate correlation (around 0.39), depending on intraday drivers.
Weekly/Monthly: An improved correlation (0.41) emerges due to their mutual role as hedges against inflation and monetary uncertainty.
o 6J (Japanese Yen Futures) and ZN (10-Year Treasuries):
Daily: Correlation moderate (around 0.53).
Weekly/Monthly: Correlation strengthens (0.74) as both assets reflect broader safe-haven sentiment, particularly during periods of global economic uncertainty.
These case studies demonstrate how timeframe selection impacts the interpretation of correlations and highlights the importance of analyzing relationships within the appropriate context.
6. Conclusion
Correlations are not static; they evolve based on the timeframe and underlying market drivers. Short-term correlations often reflect noise and idiosyncratic volatility, while longer-term correlations align with structural trends and macroeconomic factors. By understanding how correlations change across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, traders can identify meaningful relationships and build more resilient strategies.
The aggregation of timeframes also reveals diversification opportunities and risk factors that may not be apparent in shorter-term analyses. With this knowledge, market participants can better align their portfolios with prevailing market conditions, adapting their strategies to maximize performance and mitigate risk.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
GOLD Weekly Outlook Nov. 24, 2024Gold has aggressively bought up into now a premium level to finally begin to send price lower. Staying with my initial bias, that we have indeed capped the high of the year for Gold given the fact that it has bought aggressively the entire year and must now form the closing wick for 2024 trading year.
For the upcoming week I'm anticipating rejections out of the imbalances currently above price and the daily order block currently above price. I would love to see Monday range and either Tuesday or Wednesday manipulate that range. Looking at the Economic Calendar I see that the first significant High Impact news event occurs on Wednesday (Unemployment Claims 8:30am, and FOMC Minutes 2:00pm). so I would like to see that day either manipulate or be a continuation day from a Tuesday manipulation. If you have any questions regarding this analysis or outlook, feel free to send me a message here or on my other socials. Thanks.
GOLD Outlook for the week of Sun. Nov. 17, 2024I'm firm on my bias that we have capped the high of the year as it pertains to Gold and Silver. With the past week having accomplished the -2SD Draw on price, things are moving according to plan. My overall objective remains the same, as I believe price is headed to 50% yearly retracement and or -4SD selloff. Sells still look very good up until that point. Let me know your thoughts as well. Bless.
QQQ - GAP Fill QQQ - Gap Fill.
Will we be seeing this Newley formed gap that has occurred this week be filled in the next coming weeks?
We can see from 6th of May this year that a gap occurred and we waited a 3 months for this to be filled. Giving a great support zone for future price.
End of October we did see a gap that happened and it took just 1 month for this to be filled Including great pump through giving us a good support for our Newley supported Gap.
This would be a great opportunity for the investment traders / swing traders to get a hold off and keep buying till this gap has been filled.
We do have 2 VWAP anchored on this chart High and Low all showing positive turns to fill this gap in the upcoming weeks coming to Christmas market close.
The Corn Comeback: How High Will it Go!??🌽 Corn CBOT:ZC1!
Macro timeframe is showing strength.
The weekly RSI is back above the 50 EQ.
Last weekly candle closed with a bullish range expansion and engulfing bar. Now price has retraced and we are currently standing at the ideal re-entry point.
Entry market buy and dca now towards the stop.
Stop: $409
Target: $475
GOLD NEXT TARGET A bearish outlook on gold suggests that prices are expected to decline over a period of time. This could be due to various factors, including a strong U.S. dollar, rising interest rates, or a lack of investor demand. When gold is bearish, it typically indicates a market sentiment where traders and investors believe that economic conditions or market forces are reducing gold’s value as a safe-haven asset. Traders might look for short-selling opportunities, aiming to profit from the potential decrease in gold prices.
AVAX Futures Stop Buy Signal - 4-Hour Timeframe🔹 Position Type: Stop Buy (Entry after breaking $38)
🔹 Entry Price: $38
🔹 Stop Loss: $33 🔻 (−13.15%)
🔹 Take Profit: $51 🔺 (+34.21%)
🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.6
⚙️ Risk Management:
Max Risk: 3% of total capital
Leverage: 10x
✍️ Note: Entry will trigger after breaking the $38 level, indicating potential for a strong upward move. Adjust position size to stay within risk limits and manage potential losses effectively.
Silver1! Weekly Chart analysis-NFASilver1! Weekly Chart analysis-NFA
-Price came back inside weekly range after sweeping Buyside.
-Expecting price to bounce from next Weekly BISI (Support Level)
- i want the price(candle body) to stay above midpoint of green rectangle(BISI/Support)
-Weekly market structure also forming an inverted head and shoulder
-Any bearish weekly candle close below green support rectangle will invalidate the long setup and next target will be Sellside.
JASMY IS ABOUT TO SKYROCKET SOON! TA + TRADE PLANPrice Trend:
The chart shows a downward trend for JASMY/USDT, indicating bearish sentiment. This is evident from the lower highs and lower lows.
Volume:
Volume appears moderate with periodic spikes, suggesting occasional bursts of buying or selling activity. The recent downward trend does not have significantly high volume, indicating a lack of strong selling pressure, which could suggest potential consolidation.
VMC Cipher_B (Divergences):
The VMC Cipher indicator, typically used for divergences and momentum shifts, is displaying mixed signals with some green dots that might hint at potential bullish divergence. However, without a strong upward momentum or green dots appearing more frequently, this remains inconclusive.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is around 45.95, indicating a neutral to slightly oversold condition. It hasn’t reached extreme oversold (below 30), so it doesn’t signal a strong reversal but could imply some buying interest around these levels.
Stochastic Oscillator:
The Stochastic oscillator is at 68.84, pointing upward, which may suggest a short-term bullish signal as it exits oversold territory. However, it's not yet in the overbought zone (above 80), so this could imply limited upside momentum.
HMA Histogram:
The HMA histogram shows mixed colors, signaling a lack of strong trend direction in the immediate term. The histogram bars are also close to zero, indicating limited price momentum.
Trading Plan
Entry and Exit Strategy:
Short-Term Entry:
Consider entering a long position if RSI drops near 30 or if the Stochastic Oscillator enters the oversold zone and begins to cross upward, confirming potential upward momentum. Alternatively, wait for a breakout above the nearest resistance level at approximately $0.018.
Long-Term Position:
Given the overall downtrend, a short position could be considered if JASMY retests and fails to break above resistance levels at $0.019 - $0.020, signaling a continuation of the downtrend.
Stop Loss:
For a long position, set a stop loss below recent support at around $0.016 to limit downside risk.
For a short position, consider a stop loss above $0.020 if the price begins to trend upward past resistance.
Take Profit:
For a long trade, potential take-profit targets could be $0.0185 and $0.019 if the price breaks out of the consolidation zone.
For a short trade, consider take-profit targets at $0.016 and $0.015, aligning with previous support levels.
Risk Management:
Limit exposure to a small percentage of the trading portfolio due to current trend uncertainty.
Monitor volume and momentum indicators for any changes, as low volume on a breakout or breakdown can be misleading.
Wait for Confirmation: Patience may be required, especially if the price continues consolidating. A confirmed breakout with strong volume could offer a more reliable entry.
Set Alerts: Place alerts near critical levels such as $0.016 (support) and $0.019 (resistance) to act swiftly based on price movement.
NQ is losing momentun and going redHello traders,
As you can see The Nasdaq is starting to lose momentum after being bullish for several days. This is because NQ came back from strong levels, the daily 20.790 and the weekly 20.296.
From a 1H chart point of view, the price made a beautiful pull back on the weekly getting strong momentum then was rejected downward looking for the next daily level of 19.973 giving us a beautiful short trade.
If price hit the daily level and gets rejected, look for a pullback then go long searching the next daily level 20.144. But if price breaks the daily 19.973, wait for a pull back then go short searching the next weekly 19.760.
Good luck everyone and Happy trading!