BNB USDT forming descending triangle.BNB has been testing the support of around 390 multiple times. and forming descending triangle showing bearish signs. so to trade this pattern we have to wait for the breakout which can happen on either sides.
Futurestrading
Fossil Fuel Fury: Natural Gas Takes The Bullish BatonNatural gas is combustible as producers extract the energy commodity from the earth’s crust. The energy commodity’s price action has been equally volatile since the CME’s NYMEX division rolled out futures contracts over three decades ago in 1990.
Natural gas probes above the $5 level- a nearly eight-year high
Heat and storms have been bullish
LNG demand is booming
US energy policy- lower supplies when the demand is rising- A potent bullish cocktail
Approximately ten weeks to go in the injection season- Inventories are low
The nearby NYMEX natural gas futures contract has traded from a low of $1.02 to a high of $15.65 per MMBtu. The futures price reflects natural gas’s value at its delivery point at the Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana. The Henry Hub price is a benchmark. Local prices can vary and trade a substantial discount or premium to the nearby NYMEX futures.
Massive discoveries of quadrillions of cubic feet of natural gas in the Marcellus and Utica shale regions of the US had weighed on the price over the past years. Technological advances in fracking lowered the production cost. Since necessity is the mother of invention, the demand side of natural gas’s fundamental equation rose with supplies as natural gas replaced coal in power generation and liquification opened a new demand vertical. LNG now travels worldwide via ocean vessels and is not limited to pipeline transmission.
After falling to the lowest price in a quarter of a century in late June 2020 at $1.432 per MMBtu, the price has more than tripled. Last week, it probed at over $5 per MMBtu for the first time since February 2014, during the heart of a colder than average winter season.
Natural gas probes above the $5 level- a nearly eight-year high
With the start of the 2021/2022 winter season still over two months away, the natural gas futures market was in full winter mode last week as the price exploded higher.
As the daily chart of October NYMEX natural gas futures highlights, natural gas futures eclipsed the $5 per MMBtu on September 8 and rose to a high of $5.058 on September 10.
Natural gas has made higher lows and higher highs throughout the 2021 injection season, with the latest highs coming last week. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the natural gas futures market, rose in June and remained elevated as the price continued its ascent. The metric was at the highest level of 2021 last week and the highest level since early 2020. Increasing open interest when a futures market price moves higher is typically a technical validation of a bullish trend.
The move above $5 was a significant event for the natural gas market.
The monthly chart illustrates that natural gas futures rose above a critical technical resistance level at the November 2018 $4.929 per MMBtu peak. The energy commodity rose to its highest price since February 2014, a nearly eight-year high. The next technical target stands at the 2014 $6.493 high.
Meanwhile, natural gas futures had not traded above $5 in September in thirteen years since 2008. At the end of last week, nearby natural gas prices have risen by 251.3% from the 2020 $1.432 low to a closing price of $5.031 on nearby futures on September 10.
Heat and storms have been bullish
It may be early for natural gas to soar on seasonal factors as the beginning of the withdrawal season in mid-to-late November is still two months away. However, the price had been trending higher as the summer was warmer than average, increasing cooling demand. Moreover, the devastation caused by Hurricane Ida pushed the energy commodity to new highs. In mid-September, we are still in the dangerous period when storms can wreak havoc with natural gas infrastructure along the Gulf of Mexico.
Since natural gas replaced coal as the primary energy commodity generating power, cooling during the summer season has seen natural gas demand rise. For many years, natural gas was a winter commodity, but electricity requirements have made demand a more year-round affair.
LNG demand is booming
Natural gas discoveries and technological advances in extracting the energy commodity from the earth’s crust via fracking fostered a new demand vertical. In the past, natural gas only traveled by pipelines, limiting demand to mostly landlocked areas. Liquefication evolved the market as it now travels around the globe to areas where the price is higher.
Natural gas prices are rising worldwide. On Thursday, September 9, in an interview on CNBC, Cheniere Energy’s (LNG) CEO said the company is “sold out” of LNG for the next two decades. Cheniere is doing so well it plans to pay shareholders a dividend.
LNG shares reached a bottom in 2020 at $27.06. At $88.05 on September 10, the leading US LNG company’s stock was 225.4% higher as it almost kept pace with the energy commodity. The bottom line is LNG demand is booming and has caused natural gas to trickle instead of flow into storage over the past months.
US energy policy- lower supplies when the demand is rising- A potent bullish cocktail
While the weather, LNG, and overall inflationary pressures have provided lots of support for natural gas prices over the past months, the most significant factor has been the dramatic shift in US energy policy.
The Biden administration has put the US on a greener path towards renewable, cleaner energy. Fossil fuels like oil and gas have been pushed aside as the administration addresses climate change. The Obama administration did the same with coal, which became a four-letter word in the US energy sector.
The fact is that fossil fuels continue to power the world. It will take decades for technology to replace oil, gas, and coal with wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources. Even if the US and Europe move to alternative energy sources, the world’s most populous countries, China and India, are likely to continue to burn fossil fuels. While natural gas is up 251.3% from the 2020 low, coal gas has done even better.
The chart shows that the price of thermal coal for delivery in Rotterdam rose from $38.45 per ton at the 2020 low to $169.55 at the end of last week, a gain of over 340%. In a world starving for energy, fossil fuel prices are on fire.
In 2021, the Biden administration canceled the Keystone XL pipeline, banned fracking for oil and gas on federal lands in Alaska, and is increasing regulations and taxes on the fossil fuel industry. Meanwhile, the administration gave the go-ahead for a natural gas pipeline from Russia into Germany.
The twenty-year war in Afghanistan ended, but the US war on hydrocarbons to battle climate change is only getting started. Meanwhile, the administration calls climate changes an “existential threat” to the world. It took twenty years, four US Presidents, billions if not trillions of dollars, and many lives to replace the Taliban with the Taliban.
It seems a bit hypocritical to transfer the production and pricing power in crude oil back to OPEC+. It took decades for the US to achieve energy independence. The current administration has replaced OPEC+ with OPEC+. Oil, natural gas, and coal are fossil fuels. Climate change is a global issue. The world continues to depend on these commodities. The US retreat only hands to other countries that will now dominate pricing. Moreover, the transfer occurs as the demand is exploding, putting more upside pressure on traditional energy prices.
Approximately ten weeks to go in the injection season- Inventories are low
In around ten weeks, the natural gas market will move into the 2021/2022 withdrawal season, when inventories begin to decline as heating demand rises. We are moving into the peak demand season with stockpiles at low levels.
As of September 3rd, 2.923 trillion cubic feet of natural gas were stored throughout the United States in preparation for the upcoming winter season. Stocks are 16.8% below last year’s level and 7.4% under the five-year average for the beginning of September. At the end of the 2020 injection season, natural gas stocks rose to a high of 3.958 trillion cubic feet. An average injection of over 100 bcf per week would lift inventories to that level. The robust demand for LNG, lower production, and the regulatory environment under the current administration means that there will be the lowest level of natural gas in storage at the beginning of the winter months in years. A cold winter could cause a shortage of the energy commodity.
Meanwhile, heating homes will be costly during the coming winter season. If temperatures are colder than average, the bullish party could become parabolic for the volatile energy commodity. Natural gas reached a milestone over the past week as the price moved above the $5 per MMBtu level for the first time since 2014. In early July, NYMEX crude oil traded at its highest price since 2014. Coal is at a thirteen-year high.
The Taliban now controls Afghanistan, again. The US was formerly the world’s leading energy producer. The current green energy path means that energy independence has also slipped through the administration’s fingers.
Bull markets rarely move in straight lines. Corrections can be fast and furious. However, the trends remain higher, and a new set of fundamentals support higher lows as the bullish fossil fuel frenzy is no flash in the pan.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Futures Levels | Week Ahead For The Week of Sept 12Heya Speculators - it's time for another look at the stock index futures levels heading into the trading week.
To start, you may want to check out the chart of the S&P (es1!) on a 4H chart. Do you notice a pattern there? It's quadwitching this Friday and already it looks like the sellers want to keep the option expiration week dips in the playbook. 5/19, 6/19, 7/19, 8/19 HIKE!
ES1! Futures - The beginning of something greatIve been trading futures recently and man.. im falling in love, I love the choppy yet directional trend that allows for predictable swing trades. Wide swings but respect the trend.. for now..
S&P 500 futures are sitting at a make-it or break-it level currently. I'm watching this closely as we will be able to determine if the short-term down trend continues into something bigger or if we return to an up-trend.
The key levels im watching are the following retracement fibs: 4505.5, 4513.75, and the point of control at 4525.75. We are currently at the 2nd point of control and I see institutional longs accumulating, which is why I consider this a very important level. We need to break past the down trend and clear the .382 fib level. If we fail to clear any of those levels we can assume the down-trend will continue. IF these levels are breached, I would expect parabolic moves to the upside with long continuation and vise versa if they fail to clear the retracement levels. I entered long positions at the 4480 level, laddering my exits at the retracement levels. Watch these levels closely as they can provide good entries and a broader overview to follow the trend.
IF the 4480 support is broken, we can expect futures to move substantially lower at the long-term trend line at, see screenshot attached.
EOS/THETEREOS/THETER
Here is my point of view on EOS , people are worried with the current pump.
On the chart we can see the resistant holding for a possible breakout .
After a down curve, the down arrow it started with an Impulse Fib Retracement .
- For expected duration of the trade, probability, stop loss, profit target, entry price and risk to reward ratio ( RRR ) - please check my signature below ↓
Tutorial | How To "Roll" Stock Futures Contracts (When & Why)Futures contracts are derivatives with expiration dates like options. The stock indices expire quarterly on the last month of each quarter. In this tutorial, I show how to roll forward or rollover and easily add the new front month contract to a watchlist.
BTC Analysis Short Setup HTF HTF BTC Analysis
I think the best trade right now is no trade but we can plan for the move ahead of us .
In this case I favour a short off of the daily level highlighted which is confluent with the fib level shown .
After the move up to the said level I would be looking to fill a short with the targets down to the 100EMA and the POC
depending on other market metrics at that time .
Always know your Invalidation and use a SL
Like Follow and Share is always appreciated
If Commodities Break Up, The Fed is in a "Pickle". Watch DBCThe Fed keeps pumping money into markets, saying inflation is "transitory". If these commodities break up, they will have to finally change their tune. I watch DBC and DBA, the commodity indexes ETFs.
The German DAX at a Critical Support Level.The DAX needs to hold this support zone, or it could go down another 500 points.
Possible short position on ETHUSDTWait for reaction in order block area.
Price might search for liquidity left on big movement made today.
I can see the target of 60000 USDTBTC is following the trendlines on 4HR TF and it seems it will cross 60000 mark very easily. however if trade goes other way then our stoploss can be somewhere around last swing low.
BTCUSDT LongBTCUSDT showing rejection at around 47450 S&R level, so still looking Bullish on BTCUSDT with the next short Term S&R Level Waiting at around 50266.72 and 51100.00
NQ At a Critical Hourly Level.NQ has to hold this hourly trendline, or there is little support on the way down.
Cryptomania Is Back - Afghanistan Is BullishThis week is the beginning of September 2021, the twentieth anniversary of the horrendous terrorist 9/11 attacks on the United States. Soon after, the US began military operations in Afghanistan, a hotbed of harboring terrorists under the Taliban.
It took twenty years, four US Presidents, trillions in military expenses, and many lives to achieve the goal of replacing the Taliban with the Taliban. On August 31, the US will officially leave Afghanistan, and it will not be the first superpower to learn a lesson in the mountainous, tribal country. The Russians paid a price in the 1980s when they left the nation after failing to achieve military objectives.
Bitcoin and Ethereum rise above the midpoint of a very volatile move since April and May
The market cap is back above $2 trillion
Afghanistan is bullish for cryptos- Portable wealth that transcends borders and scrutiny
The Taliban’s return shatters faith in foreign policy
Weak governments weaken currencies - Expect the evolution of the crypto revolution to continue
Tens of thousands of Afghans that assisted the US and NATO are now in a dangerous situation at the hands of the new leadership. While promising to be a “kinder and gentler” Taliban, the punishment for treason is likely to cost many lives. Moreover, the strict interpretation of Sharia Law will bring a return of brutal punishments and human rights violations.
Scenes of the crowds of Afghans descending on Kabul’s airport in the final days of the US and NATO presence and the terrorist attack at the hands of ISIS-K were heartbreaking. While tens of thousands left their homeland to start over, others are stuck as the borders have sealed. Over history, we have seen many events where refugees fled their homes carrying little more than the shirts on their backs. The events over the past weeks strengthen the case for means of exchange that transcend borders and are easily portable. The case for cryptomania may have never been more compelling than right now.
Bitcoin and Ethereum rise above the midpoint of a very volatile move since April and May
Bitcoin reached its most recent all-time high on April 14, the day of the Coinbase (COIN) listing. Ethereum followed, making its high in May. Over the past years, cryptocurrencies reached new peaks on the back of supportive events. In late 2017, the leading cryptocurrencies rose above the $20,000 level for the first time when futures contracts began trading. Meanwhile, the parabolic moves that took the two leading cryptos to highs in April and May ran out of upside steam, and both more than halved in value, reaching lows in late June.
China’s ban of crypto mining and trading and news that Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) decided not to accept Bitcoin for its EVs because of the carbon footprint helped push crypto prices appreciably lower from the highs.
As the weekly chart shows, Bitcoin dropped from $65,520 to a lot of $28,800. The midpoint of the move stands at $47,160. At the end of last week at $48,030, the leading crypto was above the mean and had probed above the $50,000 level on August 23.
The market cap is back above $2 trillion
The overall market cap of the cryptocurrency asset class peaked above the $2.4 trillion level when Bitcoin and Ethereum were on the highs in April and May. The correction sent it well below $1.4 billion. As of the end of last week, the asset class’s value was back on the upswing, over the $2 trillion level.
According to CoinMarketCap, on Sunday, August 29, a total of 11,468 cryptocurrencies had a market cap of over $2.088 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum accounting for 61.8% of the value. Meanwhile, the other 38.2% was spread over 11,466 tokens. Only 94 tokens or 0.82% of the asset class have market caps above the $1 billion level, so there is plenty of room for growth.
While two trillion is a huge number, considering Apple’s (AAPL) market cap was $2.,456 trillion on August 27, cryptocurrencies remain an emerging asset class that poses little systemic threat to the financial system. However, the potential for disruptions will rise with the value over the coming months and years.
Afghanistan is bullish for cryptos- Portable wealth that transcends borders and scrutiny
Capital flight occurs when assets or money flow out of a country because of an event of economic consequence or as the result of economic globalization. There are many historical examples of people fleeing their homeland because of a change in the political landscape.
In 1930s Nazi Germany, many people fled to other countries with only the shirts on their backs. Some carried gold and diamonds as flight capital to assist in starting a new life in another home.
The latest example comes from Afghanistan, where the sudden takeover by the repressive Taliban caused panic to get western citizens and Afghans that assisted in the two-decade failed war effort out of the country. As the Taliban took control of Kabul, banks shuttered, and it became impossible to withdraw cash. Those with the foresight to open cryptocurrency accounts could carry a flash drive or secure password out of the country, protecting their wealth and savings.
Cryptocurrencies that sit in computer wallets in the cloud are portable wealth instruments that transcend borders and scrutiny and are likely to gain utility and acceptance in the aftermath of the situation in Afghanistan.
The Taliban’s return shatters faith in foreign policy
Meanwhile, the US and NATO defeat at the hands of the Taliban after a costly twenty-year war and the surrender of control, leaving many at risk, has divided allies. Criticism over the retreat logistics could change the US’s role as a world leader over the coming years. Afghanistan’s legacy could make countries think twice about the US commitment to world security.
We could see the event trigger other political changes as some interpret US foreign policy as weakened. China has made no secret of its desire to “unify” Taiwan, which it considers a part of Chinese sovereign territory. Russia has designs on influence in Ukraine and other bordering former Soviet bloc countries. After a twenty-year war where the Taliban and terrorist organizations believe the US occupied their lands, the potential for attacks in the US and NATO countries will increase. Afghanistan is back in the hands of a government with a history of harboring terrorists that seek to strike outside its borders.
Fiat currencies reflect the full faith and credit of the governments that issue legal tends. The dollar may still be the world’s reserve currency, but the standing along with all fiat currencies has taken a giant step backward. Monetary and fiscal stimulus have diluted the currency values, and the foreign policy missteps have taken the US down more than one notch in the world’s eyes. The bottom line is the faith has declined, and the credit is suspect, weighing on the dollar and all other fiat means of exchange.
Cryptocurrencies are the embodiment of libertarian ideology, returning power to individuals. The decline in faith and credit only bolsters the case for the burgeoning asset class.
Weak governments weaken currencies- Expect the evolution of the crypto revolution to continue
An almost perfect bearish storm has descended on fiat currency markets. It is challenging to watch them depreciate because the foreign exchange arena is a mirage.
We watch the value of one currency versus another; the dollar versus the euro, the euro versus the pound, the dollar versus the yen, and the many other cross-currency relationships. It is easy to identify when one currency weakens against another. However, what is not readily apparent is the decline of the entire fiat currency asset class.
Inflationary pressures erode currency values. In 2019 and 2020, gold rose to a new record high in almost every currency on the planet. Over the past months, commodity prices have increased to multi-year, or in some cases, all-time highs. The US Fed calls the inflationary trend “transitory,” blaming it on supply chain bottlenecks and other pandemic-related reasons. Meanwhile, the Fed, other central banks, and governments planted the inflationary seeds with a tidal wave of liquidity, artificially low interest rates, and a tsunami of fiscal stimulus to stabilize the US and global economy because of COVID-19. The currency markets were already under pressure from a credit perspective. Afghanistan is another blow to the faith component of their value.
Cryptocurrencies are in the right place at the right time, and timing is critical in markets. Expect the evolution of the cryptocurrency revolution to continue. The technical trends remain higher. Moreover, the underlying fundamentals on the political and economic landscapes favor the continued decline of fiat values, lifting the potential for gains in instruments that embrace fintech.
Cryptomania is back, and the events in Afghanistan add another reason for the asset class to thrive. As the prices rise, expect the speculative fever to reach even higher levels over the coming months and years as market participants search for the next Bitcoin or Ethereum.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
/ZB Overbought at Resistance/ZB right at price and 50 SMA resistance. With the jobs report Friday, this could drift lower.
Futures Levels | Look Ahead For The Week of Aug 22The VIX popped and dropped last week making the selling again a very short term event. The S&P ES1! is right back on trend after holding the 55EMA on the daily. Gold GC1! is in balance and crude CL1! continues to look like it wants lower prints.
Economic Calendar Week Starting Sun, Aug 22
Monday, August 23
EU Manufacturing & Services PMI 2:15 AM CST
US Manufacturing & Services PMI 8:45 AM CST
Thursday, August 26
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium All Day
US Preliminary GDP 7:30 AM CST
Friday, August 27
US Core PCE Price Index 7:30 AM CST
NQ1!, Trading the Market one Swing at a TimeThe market remains massively unchanged. The sell side made an attempt to go lower but the buy side had entered aggressively at the 61.8% extension of the most recent swing, a confluence with 50 DMA, and pushed back. A strong rejection suggests higher prices to come. The monthly R1 retest is not ruled out. I've been mentioned that level in the previous posts. The buyers success is easy to gauge through Fib levels. Holding 23.6% put them on the path to a new all time high. Breaching it would lead to a retest of the 61.8% and potentially monthly S1.
I continue to emphasize that the market is very technical. This is the result of the Algos being involved more and more in the trading. Without hard "stop and turn" they move the price from a level to level.
It makes sense to trade one swing at a time. Applying Fibs and watching the reaction on a smaller timeframe is a proven strategy. It is also very mechanical and objective helping to overcome the overthinking syndrome.
The Fib levels are more accurate for the most recent swing.
08/21/2021
BNB USDT forming ascending channelBNB USDT is forming an ascending channel on 4HR TF. means it can be traded for longs when price action forms on lower trendline and for short on higher trend line. make sure you enter the trade after confirmation on lower TF. if you are using 4HR TF for identifying trend then you must enter on 1HR TF.
ALPHAUSDT forming falling wedge, watch the dip for best entry!after the price breakdown it's consolidation block on 0.95 price level, ALPHA start to form falling wedge, there are 2 possible scenario :
1. it's continue to complete the falling wedge pattern and will blast out (cause by the time it will be on the bullish divergence area).
2. it's hodling up on the consolidation box and start rising up, but if this scenario happen i dont think it have enough buy pressure to reverse the trend.
keep wait and see for the best possible entry cause at the end the market will tell.
safe trading and have a continouse profit !
BTCUSDT reversal on 4h timeframeas we can see, for agresive riks taker trader, there is a chance that BTC will continue it paterns (as shown in 1,2,3,4) supported by the deivergence indicator that curently on oversold level. so it's time to make your decission !
have a safe trade and coninous profit !
Day Trading ES with Simplicity! Initial Balance VWAP and LevelsHey everyone I thought I can share with you what I see working intraday trading the Futures markets. One size definitely does not fit all. Beware of people that tell you their way or the highway! This may resonate with some traders and not with other traders. Getting really good at identifying the Initial Balance, VWAP and Daily Weekly Monthly Levels for areas of Supply and Demand, (where macro traders sit) you can get a great edge over time with your trading and build a ton of confidence. Check it out for yourself. I also use order flow to actual enter and manage my trade ideas but that is for another topic. Everyone take care out there.
