Bitcoin - Expecting Liquidity Grab at 102.8k Before Relief MoveMarket Context
After a strong rejection from resistance, price has shown clear signs of internal weakness. We recently got an internal liquidity sweep followed by a sharp move down, confirming a shift in momentum. The market is currently compressing just below a key fair value gap, hinting at further downside before any real bullish structure can form
Internal Sweep and Bearish Pressure
The internal sweep acted as a final inducement before the market sold off. The reaction afterward was clean and aggressive, suggesting that smart money is offloading positions into trapped longs. Price has now stalled in a tight range, and the lack of bullish follow-through adds weight to the idea that lower prices are still on the table.
Fair Value Gap Below as Draw
The unfilled imbalance below, lining up near 102.8k, is acting as a magnet. This level has not been tapped and lines up cleanly with the idea of a final liquidity sweep before any retracement. It would make sense to target this zone to clear out remaining liquidity and rebalance price before reassessing.
Retracement Scenarios After the Sweep
Once that low is swept and the gap is filled, we could see a retracement back into the previous fair value gap around 106k. This could either form a lower high, continuing the broader downtrend, or potentially run the high if there's enough momentum. Either way, the reaction from that level will offer the next major clue on direction.
Key Expectation
Until the low around 102.8k is swept, the bearish narrative remains intact. The cleanest setup would be a liquidity run into that level followed by a reaction that leads us higher, ideally back toward the 106k zone. From there, we’ll watch how price behaves to decide whether a deeper correction or a trend continuation is in play.
Conclusion
Still leaning bearish short-term as long as that gap and low remain unfilled. Once we tap into the 102.8k area, I’ll be watching for a shift that could give us a play back into the 106k gap. It’s all about liquidity, structure, and the cleanest path for smart money to move.
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Fvg
Bitcoin - Will it explode up or down?Introduction
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, forming a series of higher lows and lower highs. This price action indicates a tightening range as the market approaches the apex of the triangle. A breakout is becoming increasingly likely in the coming days, and traders are now watching closely to see which direction BTC will choose. Will it break to the upside or the downside?
Pattern Trading
The symmetrical triangle has been a consistent feature of BTC’s recent price action. Price has been oscillating between the descending resistance and ascending support trendlines, gradually compressing the range. Based on the current structure, Bitcoin could continue moving within this pattern until around June 26th, when the triangle becomes extremely narrow and a breakout becomes imminent. Historically, such setups can produce false breakouts or “fake-outs,” where the price temporarily moves in one direction before sharply reversing and breaking out in the opposite direction. These moves often trap traders who enter too early, so caution is advised. Market manipulation is not uncommon in these tight formations, making it essential to wait for confirmation before entering a position.
4H Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Bitcoin has recently filled a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG), a zone that often attracts price due to inefficiencies in the market. Now that this gap has been filled, there could be increased selling pressure, potentially pushing BTC back down toward the lower boundary of the triangle. If BTC is unable to break through the resistance created by this FVG, we may see more bearish momentum. However, should BTC manage to break and hold above this imbalance zone, it would be a strong sign of bullish intent and could open the door for a move to the upside. For now, though, this area remains a significant resistance level.
Upside Target
If BTC manages to break out of the triangle to the upside with strong volume and confirmation, the first major resistance level is around $109,000. This would be a logical target for bulls, as it represents a key zone of liquidity and previous interest. A successful move toward this level would confirm the bullish breakout and could set the stage for further gains, depending on broader market sentiment.
Downside Targets
Conversely, if BTC breaks below the lower trendline of the triangle, the first area to watch is around $103,500. This level is where a significant amount of liquidity has built up, and it could act as initial support. However, if that level fails to hold, the next key psychological level to watch would be $100,000. A drop below this milestone could trigger panic selling and further downside, especially if market sentiment turns negative.
Conclusion
At this point, BTC is at a critical juncture, and traders should remain patient as the market decides its next direction. While the current rejection from the 4H FVG suggests some short-term bearish pressure, the overall pattern remains neutral until a confirmed breakout occurs. Trading within the triangle can be risky due to the possibility of fake-outs, so it’s best to wait for clear confirmation before committing to a trade. Stay cautious, manage your risk carefully, and prepare for volatility as Bitcoin approaches a decisive move.
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Bullish Tone, and made a trade based on Pivots amd FVG in comboTrade Analysis
(1) Trade Plan:
The idea was that the short term trend looked bullish, hence I marked up the key levels and checks to see if the price was at any of the pivot levels. Based on the idea when price crosses the Centre Top Pivot and is above a support . Further more it already visited a recent Bullish.. Hence the price may continue towards R1 above.
-
(2) Indicators (4 of 5):
- Only Pivot and Support lines and FVG
(3) Confirmations (3 of 3):
- 30 min candle closing well above the TOP Centre Pivot line.
(4) Risk Management Plan:
- This was little high as it was set to below the end of the Bullish FVG at the bottom. On hindsight i should have waited on my entry for a revisit. However sometimes i don't wait as it does not revisit.
(5) Profit Target:
- R1
(6) Stop Loss:
- Bottom Of FVG
(7) Entry:
- First Candle after 30 min candle closed above TCP
(8) Profit Taking Plan:
-
(9) Analyzation:
-
(10) Psychology of the Trade:
-
(11) Overall Rating:
(12) What was Good:
-
(13) What was Bad:
-
(14) Improvement Areas:
-
(15) Rule Broken & Key Takeaways:
#Bitcoin is approaching a strong demand zone!#Bitcoin is approaching a strong demand zone!
This level has acted as solid support several times in the past.
According to the Fibonacci levels, we’re currently at the 0.5 level, which makes this area even more significant.
In my opinion, we’re likely to see a bounce from here.
However, if the price fails to hold this level, there’s a good chance we’ll retest the $92K zone.
But for that to happen, we need a daily close below $100K.
Until then, we’re still in a safe zone.
I’ll keep you updated as things develop.
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DYOR, NFA
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan – Monday, June 23, 2025Current Price: 3368.76
Trend: Bearish on H4 | Corrective on H1 | Weak Bullish Attempt on M15
Market Context: Gold is consolidating under EMA pressure after FOMC. Price is pinned inside a key flip zone, awaiting Monday’s fundamental triggers.
🔸 HTF Overview (D1, H4, H1)
📰 Macro + Economic Context – Week of June 23–28:
This is a high-impact week for USD with Fed speeches, inflation, and growth data. Monday opens with caution:
Monday, June 23
🟠 FOMC Member Waller Speaks
🔴 Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
🟠 Existing Home Sales
Tuesday, June 24
🔴 Fed Chair Powell Testifies
🟠 CB Consumer Confidence
🟠 Richmond Manufacturing Index
Wednesday, June 25
🔴 Powell Testimony (Day 2)
🟠 New Home Sales
Thursday, June 26
🔴 Final GDP q/q
🔴 Unemployment Claims
🟠 Durable Goods Orders
🟠 Pending Home Sales
Friday, June 27
🔴 Core PCE Price Index
🟠 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
📌 Monday is lighter in impact, but PMI data and Waller’s speech may spark the week’s directional bias. Avoid trading blindly into PMI spikes.
H4 Structure & Bias:
Bearish trend intact: Lower High = 3418, Lower Low = 3311
EMAs (21/50/100) aligned downward — price capped below 3380
RSI still under 60 = no bullish momentum
Rejection zone remains valid at 3406–3420 (H4 OB)
Strong demand expected at 3340–3352 and extreme at 3310–3288
🔸 LTF Precision (M30, M15)
Price compressing around 3365–3372
RSI around 56 → indecision
No bullish HH above 3380 = still within bearish control
EMA flattening → prepare for trap setups around NY open
🧭 Trade Scenarios
🔻 Sell Zone – 3406–3420
H4 OB, FVG top, liquidity above 3405
Entry: 3412
SL: 3426
TP1: 3312
TP2: 3288
TP3: 3265
🧠 Wait for sweep or strong bearish reaction — no early entries.
⚠️ Flip Zone – 3360–3380
No-trade zone: EMA cluster + mid-FVG
Only use for confirmations, not entries
🟢 Buy Zone – 3340–3352
OB + demand + Fib retracement
Entry: 3348
SL: 3334
TP1: 3448
TP2: 3472
TP3: 3490
🟢 Buy Zone – 3310–3288
Below LL sweep (3311)
Deep liquidity + OB demand
Entry: 3298
SL: 3280
TP1: 3365
TP2: 3405
TP3: 3440
📍 Key Structural Levels – June 23
Level Type Role
3460 Bull Trap Limit Irrational spike area
3445 FOMC Unfilled wick – trap zone
3426 Sell Zone Risk protection above OB
3418 H4 LH Confirmed bearish structure
3410 OB Midpoint Micro-rejection inside OB
3395 Previous HH Inducement target
3384 FVG Top Minor LTF rejection
3360–3380 ⚠️ Flip Zone MA/FVG compression – avoid entries
3352 OB entry edge Buy Zone 1 upper limit
3340 OB base Buy Zone 1 key level
3311 H4 LL Confirms bear structure
3300 Round Level Psychological + liquidity
3288 OB base Final demand structure zone
3265 Final TP Bearish extension only
✅ Final Action Plan
📉 Stay bearish below 3380 unless a clean HH + OB support forms
⚠️ Avoid trading inside 3360–3380 flip zone during NY PMI data
🛒 Longs valid only from 3340 or 3310 with confirmation (RSI, PA, OB)
🧠 Focus on structure integrity and clean OB rejections only
💬 Will you fade the 3412 OB or wait for the sniper bounce at 3348?
🔔 Follow and 🚀@GoldFxMinds for premium breakdowns, macro updates, and real-time sniper execution guidance.
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GoldFxMinds
Bitcoin– bearish momentum builds after rejection at $109KIntroduction
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing weakness after forming a lower high at $109,000. This level acted as a significant point of rejection, and since then, BTC has been moving lower. The price has broken through key support areas, indicating a possible shift in market structure. In this analysis, we’ll break down the recent price action, explain the technical signals behind the move, and discuss what could be expected in the short term.
Rejection from the 0.786 Fibonacci Level
The rejection at the $109,000 level aligns perfectly with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour timeframe. This level is often seen as a strong resistance point during corrective moves, and in this case, it held firmly. The precision of this rejection gives it more weight, and since hitting that point, BTC has been steadily declining. This move down suggests that buyers were unable to push through the resistance, leading to increased selling pressure.
Break of the 4H Bullish FVG
As BTC started its decline from $109,000, it broke through the bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) that had formed earlier on the 4-hour chart. This gap previously served as a support zone but has now been decisively broken with strong volume. The loss of this level is significant, as it marks a breakdown of the bullish structure and opens the door for further downside movement. In the process of this move lower, BTC has created a new bearish FVG on the 4-hour timeframe. This gap remains open and could potentially act as a magnet for price to revisit, offering a possible short entry if price retraces into that zone. However, the clear break below the previous bullish FVG indicates a shift in momentum and supports a more bearish bias for now.
Downside Target at $102.7K
Given the recent breakdown, the next key level to watch is around $102,700. This area marks the wick low on the 4-hour timeframe and stands out due to the size and sharpness of the wick. Such large wicks often leave behind unfilled orders, which markets tend to revisit over time. The presence of these resting orders makes this level a likely target for the ongoing move down. It also acts as a strong area of potential support, where buyers might step back in if the price reaches that point.
Conclusion
With the rejection from the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the failure to hold the bullish 4H FVG, BTC has shown clear signs of weakness. The breakdown in structure suggests a continuation to the downside is likely, with $102.7k being the most immediate target. This level could serve as a strong support zone due to the unfilled orders left behind by the previous wick. Until BTC reclaims key support levels or shows a shift in momentum, the bias remains bearish in the short term, and traders should remain cautious while expecting further downside.
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NASDAQ Bullish Play into Liquidity Before Potential ReversalForecast:
NOTE: At this moment, this is a forecast and trades will be taken dependent on live PA.
Price has reacted strongly off the 21,410–21,430 Daily Order Block, suggesting bullish intent. If bullish structure holds, I expect a move into the 22,060–22,130 liquidity zone, where sell-side setups could form.
This is a classic Buy to Sell model:
Buy from OB at ~21,420
Target liquidity above recent highs (~22,100+)
Look for shorts after sweep into 22,130–22,220 range
Invalidation: Break and close below 21,410 suggests the OB failed — potential deeper drop toward 20,700.
EURUSD M15 Forecast - Check related IdeaAs explained in previous post we are expecting a pull back down to our order block (H4) then a bullish reversal to retest last weeks highs (1.16) region. If price breaks and closes above the M15 supply zone will have to re-evaluate and potentially take a long position from a retest into a FVG.
EURUSD to Retest 1.16 regionWatching the 1.1490–1.1450 zone for a potential bullish reaction. This area includes a 4H Fair Value Gap and Order Block. If price gives a 15M CoCH within this range, I’ll look to enter long.
Targets: 1.1540, 1.1570, and 1.1610
Invalidation below 1.1440
Patience until price delivers a clear setup.
EURUSD - BreakdownApologies video is a bit rushed.
Wanted to get it done before the weekend arrived.
There's so much more to this video and entry reason that I have left out unintentionally like the fact we swept the Asia lows before creating a BoS. There are also a few other things like I have left out but without looking at the chart right now I cannot remember off the top of my head.
I will post the idea of this trade below so you can see that I was taking it before it played out.
Hope you all have a great weekend and a better trading week than you had this week.
Enjoy
P.S if you have any questions please do message
EURUSD - FVG Rejection and Bearish Continuation PlayEURUSD has been showing consistent bearish pressure on the 4H chart, with a clear shift in momentum after forming a double top near 1.162. That marked the beginning of a structural change, which was confirmed once price broke the most recent higher low. Since then, the market has transitioned into a bearish structure, with lower highs forming consecutively. This suggests that the bullish trend is over for now, and the market is more likely to seek liquidity below.
Rejection at Fair Value Gap
After the low was broken, price retraced back into a 4H fair value gap, which has now acted as resistance. This is typical smart money behavior, sweep liquidity, shift structure, then retest an imbalance before continuing lower. The wick rejection inside the purple FVG zone is a strong signal that this area is being respected and that sellers are defending it. The rejection aligns with the overall bearish market flow and suggests that the market has likely completed its retest.
Short-Term Support and Liquidity Target
The light blue FVG around 1.144 could offer temporary support, but the bias remains bearish. That level sits right at the midpoint of the recent bullish leg that was already violated, and while price may pause here, the more logical draw on liquidity sits deeper. Unless there’s a sudden shift in market structure or high-impact fundamental news, this area is expected to eventually give way.
Liquidity Below and Final Target
The cleanest and most obvious liquidity pool rests around the 1.137 zone. This is where price previously consolidated before initiating the impulsive move higher, and it remains unmitigated. If the current bearish structure holds, the market will likely target this area next. The path there might not be linear, we could see a short-term bounce off 1.144, but as long as price remains below the 1.153 FVG rejection, the bearish continuation remains valid.
Trade Expectation and Risk Context
This setup aligns well with typical displacement-retest-continuation behavior. The risk is clearly defined above the FVG rejection, and as long as lower highs continue forming beneath that zone, the bearish thesis remains intact. Key downside targets are 1.144 for partials, and 1.137 as the final draw on liquidity. This setup offers both precision and strong narrative confluence, ideal for swing or intraday positioning.
Conclusion
Price has shifted bearish on the 4H, confirmed by a break of structure and rejection from a clear FVG. As long as we remain below that imbalance, the market should continue hunting liquidity to the downside. 1.144 may act as short-term support, but the real magnet sits at 1.137. Patience and risk control will be key in riding this move effectively.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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$ETH / USDT – 4H Time Frame Analysis 3,000 INCOMING?? CRYPTOCAP:ETH / USDT – 4H Time Frame Analysis
Structure: Bullish Flag | Outlook: Neutral-Bullish | Target: $3000?
🔹 Chart Overview
-Pattern: Bullish Flag (continuation structure)
Current Range:
- Supply Zone: $2,680.00 – $2,786.21
- Demand Zone: $2,319.79 – $2,417.61
Price Action:
- Tight consolidation between higher lows and lower highs, forming a symmetrical triangle within a flag structure.
Trend:
- Consolidation, but within a macro uptrend (prior strong rally).
Volume Profile:
- Anchored Volume shows high participation around $2,540–$2,600.
OBV:
- Flattening, signaling indecision and potential energy buildup.
Key Psychological Levels:
$2,860: Minor resistance from past S/R flips.
$3,000: Major round-number psychological resistance.
📐 Technical Confluences
Fibonacci Retracement:
- The 0.618 golden pocket aligns with the support trendline, reinforcing this as a critical zone.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
- Above Price: Acts as a magnet in bullish continuation.
- Below Price: Risk zone if price drops; aligns with liquidity and trendline support.
- Liquidity Zone: Aligned with 0.5–0.618 retracement; strong reaction expected.
📈 Bullish Scenari o
Breakout of Pennant Resistance:
- A clean break above $2,786 (supply zone & swing high) with volume.
Close above Upper FVG and Liquidity Zone:
- Confirms bullish intent. Targets psychological level at $2,860, then $3,000.
Volume Confirmation:
- OBV uptick and high breakout volume would validate the move.
Bullish Target Zones:
TP1: $2,860 (psych level + previous resistance)
TP2: $3,000 (major psychological level)
TP3: $3,120–$3,180 (1.618 Fib extension)
📉 Bearish Scenario
Rejection from Current Supply or Liquidity Zone:
- Fails to break above supply; rolls over from the upper pennant line.
Break Below Support Trendline:
- Break below golden pocket and $2,417.61 demand zone.
Invalidation of Bullish Flag:
- A breakdown below $2,319.79 (swing low) invalidates the bullish flag and may signal a trend reversal.
Bearish Target Zones:
TP1: $2,200 (local volume gap + structure support)
TP2: $2,060–$2,120 (previous accumulation zone)
TP3: $1,950 (macro support & last strong demand)
✅ Summary
Structure:
- Price is compressing within a bullish continuation pattern, awaiting breakout confirmation.
Bias: Slightly bullish unless the swing low at $2,319 is broken.
Confirmation Needed:
- Break above or below pennant boundaries with volume.
USDCAD SWING TRADE LONG IDEA - MASSIVE BULLISH MOVE COMING?OANDA:USDCAD USDCAD has given a massive bullish break of structure on 4 Hour time frame after tapping to a strong key level on weekly time frame that is serving as support.
Now am bullish on USDCAD for a weekly income swing trading moves.
All I need right now to enter for a long to ride the move is a pull back to key level of support like old highs or imbalance levels.
That is when I will take a bullish long trade on USDCAD.
This is my A+ Trading Setup.
What do you see on your chart?
EUR/USD - Eyes on the major resistance at 1.1540!Introduction
The EUR/USD currency pair has been trending downward on the 1-hour timeframe, indicating that bearish momentum is firmly in control. In this analysis, I will outline what to expect from the pair moving forward, and highlight the high-confluence zone that could offer a potential short setup. This area combines technical factors that suggest it may act as strong resistance if price retraces upward before continuing the downtrend.
Market Structure
On the 1-hour chart, the EUR/USD continues to form a series of lower highs and lower lows, which clearly confirms a bearish market structure. This consistent pattern reinforces that sellers have the upper hand, and that any short-term rallies are likely to be corrective in nature, not trend-changing. As long as this structure remains intact, the broader expectation remains bearish, with sellers likely to defend key resistance levels.
Fair Value Gaps on the 15-Minute and 1-Hour Timeframes
During the latest downward movement, the pair left behind two notable Fair Value Gaps, one on the 1-hour chart and another on the 15-minute chart. These imbalances are closely aligned, creating a strong confluence zone where price may face resistance if it moves back upward. The zone between 1.15400 and 1.15600 represents this overlapping FVG area. Because these gaps were formed by aggressive selling pressure, revisiting this level could trigger a bearish reaction, as traders look to re-enter short positions from a premium price.
Golden Pocket Fibonacci Retracement
Adding to this confluence, the Golden Pocket, the area between the 61.8% and 65% Fibonacci retracement levels, lies between 1.15407 and 1.15441. This zone is widely respected among traders due to its tendency to act as a reversal point in trending markets. The fact that it aligns so closely with both the 15-minute and 1-hour FVGs increases the likelihood of price reacting here. If the market retraces into this pocket, we could see renewed selling pressure, making it a valuable level to watch for short entries.
Point of Interest and Liquidity Zone
Within the latest leg down, there was a brief two-hour consolidation before the pair continued lower, leaving behind a distinct wick to the upside. This area is significant because it likely represents a point of interest where buy-side liquidity was grabbed. Many traders who entered shorts early may have placed their stop-losses above this consolidation high, creating a liquidity pool. This level, sitting inside the broader resistance zone formed by the FVGs and the Golden Pocket, adds another layer of technical significance. Price may move into this liquidity before reversing lower, offering a potential trap for buyers and an opportunity for sellers.
Downside Targets
If the price reacts to the resistance zone and resumes its downward movement, there are two logical targets to the downside. The first is 1.1485, which corresponds to the most recent swing low. The second target is 1.1475, which represents a deeper low and a stronger potential support level. These levels align with previous structure and could serve as key take-profit zones for traders holding short positions.
Conclusion
The EUR/USD remains in a well-defined downtrend, and several technical elements now converge between 1.15400 and 1.15600 to form a strong resistance zone. This area includes the 15-minute Fair Value Gap, the 1-hour Fair Value Gap, the Golden Pocket Fibonacci retracement, and a significant point of interest tied to liquidity. While the pair may not need to reach this zone before continuing lower, if it does, it is likely to act as a barrier to further upside. For traders looking to follow the dominant trend, this high-confluence area offers a potential entry point to the downside, with clear structure-based targets below.
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Bitcoin - Trend Shift Confirmed, Eyes on $102.8K LiquidityMarket Context
Bitcoin showed signs of exhaustion after a strong short-term rally within a clean upward channel on the 1H chart. Price action had been respecting the trend structure until a key deviation occurred near $108,500, where we saw an internal liquidity sweep that hinted at potential distribution.
Fake-Out Confirmation and Shift in Momentum
After taking out local highs around $108.5K, price failed to continue higher and instead reversed sharply, confirming the sweep as a classic fake-out. This kind of internal liquidity grab is typically used to trap breakout buyers before reversing and targeting previous lows.
Break of Structure and Channel Retest
The rising channel was broken convincingly, and price has now retested the underside of the channel, aligning with the 50% equilibrium of the entire high-to-low range. This reinforces the bearish bias and suggests the market has likely shifted from accumulation to distribution.
Downside Targets and Key Levels
Immediate support sits around $104.6K, which served as a consolidation base during the earlier run-up. If this level fails to hold, the next key target would be a sweep of the previous significant low at $102.8K. This area is marked as a point of interest and could offer a reaction or reversal.
Price Expectations and Trade Outlook
As long as price remains below the broken channel and under $107K, the bearish scenario remains in play. I’m watching for bearish continuation into $104.6K first, and a potential full sweep toward $102.8K if that support fails.
Conclusion
The internal sweep followed by impulsive rejection, combined with a clear channel breakdown and retest, shifts the bias to bearish. A move into the $104.6K region seems probable, with a lower liquidity target at $102.8K in sight if downside pressure accelerates.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USDCAD SHORT IDEA- USDCAD Is EXTREMELY WEAK AND READY FOR SELLOANDA:USDCAD USDCAD Is extremely weak I expect price to drop hard from here.
TRADE BREAKDOWN
Weekly Trend is Bearish.
Daily Trend is Bearish.
4H Trend is also Bearish.
This is 100% a trend following strategy trade.
The entry is taken on 4H time frame targeting the recent weekly swing low.
This is a 4RR Trade.
ETH Short – Smart Money Setup | 17.06 🔍 Context:
After a strong dump on ETH, clearly visible on the 1H chart (left side of image), I waited for a retrace into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone — typical Smart Money behavior. That’s where I started looking for a short setup.
🎯 Entry Logic:
Now here's the part I’d love to discuss with you.
The classic and maybe "cleanest" approach would be to wait for a market structure break on a lower timeframe and then enter on the continuation, targeting rejection zones visible again on the 1H.
But…
Lately, I’ve been taking entries directly from FVG, even before the break, if another FVG forms on the lower timeframe inside the higher timeframe zone. That’s what happened here — I saw a second FVG form in the key area, and took the short from that.
Sometimes I even treat two FVGs in the same direction (on the same or different timeframes) as a valid entry point on their own.
🤔 Question to the community:
How do you usually approach this?
Do you wait for confirmation/structure break on the lower TF before entering, or do you also go straight from the FVG if the zone is respected well enough?
Would love to hear how others manage similar setups.
US100 – Eyes on $22,040 as bulls take chargeIntroduction
The US100 is currently showing signs of a bullish breakout, moving above the boundaries of a previously established parallel channel. It is now approaching an important area of imbalance, known as a Fair Value Gap (FVG), on the 4-hour chart. If the index manages to break through this zone, there is a strong potential for continued upward momentum. Let’s take a closer look at the technical setup and what might come next.
Parallel Channel
For some time, the US100 had been trading within a downward-sloping parallel channel, consistently making lower highs and lower lows. However, today's price action has changed that narrative. The index has broken out of the channel to the upside and is currently pushing towards new short-term highs, which could mark the beginning of a bullish trend reversal.
4-Hour Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The current focus is on an open 4-hour FVG that ranges from approximately 21,840 to 21,870. This zone could serve as a significant resistance level, potentially rejecting further upward movement. However, if the US100 breaks decisively above this range, it could open the door for a rapid push toward previous highs. Such a move would signal strong bullish momentum and confirm the breakout as legitimate.
Possibility of a False Breakout
There is always the risk that this breakout could turn out to be a false move. If the US100 fails to hold above the 4-hour FVG and reverses back below the channel breakout point, it could indicate a bull trap. In that case, the index may resume its downward trend. Still, based on the current momentum and market structure, this scenario seems less likely at the moment.
Upside Target
If the breakout above the FVG is successful, the next significant target lies at the recent highs near 22,040. This level is expected to act as strong resistance. Should the US100 manage to break through it, we could see a test of the all-time high in the near future. However, it’s important to approach the market with patience and let each level confirm itself before expecting further upside.
Conclusion
While the US100 has successfully broken out of its parallel channel, it is now facing a key test at the 4-hour FVG. A clean break above this zone would likely shift market sentiment to bullish and set the stage for a move toward 22,040 and potentially beyond. Until then, traders should watch closely for confirmation and be mindful of the possibility of a pullback.
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EurUsd Daily Profile and expectation for New YorkMy Monday Protocol normally is to sit on my hands and see how Monday prints and trade from Tuesday onwards. With FOMC coming Wednesday, I'm allowed to deviate from this because Monday can be trending to "get somewhere in a hurry", trap Traders and go the other way during FOMC.
When I now look at the Market I see that London kept Asia Lows in tact and expanded higher leaving Failure Swings. Now consolidating which is normally a continuation signature... But then it should first sweep the consolidation Low and make a Reversal Signature. When we sweep or run the Consolidation High first, then the Long idea is not valid anymore.
Im watching the FVG below and see how we trade there and then decide if a Long is in play... I don't want to lose the Equilibruim Level of London Session otherwise the Failure Swings below the Market are the target.
Bottom Line, no hard Bias because its Monday. Favoring the Bullish side with FOMC on the Agenda this week, but not in a hurry to trade.
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Happy Hunting, Stay Safe!
Warm Regards,
Mariinus
US100 - Trading within a bearish parallel channel!Introduction
The US100 is currently trading within a well-defined parallel channel to the downside, consistently finding support along the lower trendline and facing resistance near the upper boundary. This structure has led to a clear pattern of lower lows and lower highs on the 1H timeframe. Most recently, price action broke market structure, and we now anticipate a reaction near a high-confluence resistance area.
Parallel Channel
A distinct parallel channel has been developing on the US100 over the past several days on the 1H timeframe. During last night's move, the price touched the lower boundary of the channel and has been trending upward since. After breaking above the midline at $21,640, momentum suggests a potential continuation toward the upper boundary of the channel around $21,830.
FVG
During the most recent downward move, the US100 created a significant 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG), stretching from $21,775 to $21,840. This zone represents a key imbalance that could generate a strong reaction to the downside if price revisits it.
Conclusion
Given the break in structure on the 1H timeframe, short-term upward moves are likely to face resistance. The confluence between the upper boundary of the parallel channel and the 1H FVG creates a high-probability area for price rejection, making it a critical level to watch for potential downside pressure.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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