Bitcoin: New All-Time High — What’s Next?Bitcoin had an incredible run, breaking the old all-time high ($111,980) with strong bullish momentum and setting a fresh ATH at $123,218 (Binance). We just witnessed the first major corrective move of ~6% and a decent bounce so far — but the big question is:
What’s next? Will Bitcoin break higher over the summer or form a trading range here?
Let’s dive into the technicals.
🧩 Higher Timeframe Structure
May–June Range:
BTC was stuck between $110K–$100K, forming an ABC corrective pattern. Using trend-based Fib extension (TBFE) from A–B–C:
✅ C wave completed at $98,922 (1.0 TBFE)
✅ Upside target hit at $122,137 (-1 TBFE)
Full Bull Market TBFE:
➡️ 1.0 → $107,301 → previously rejected
➡️ 1.272 → $123,158 → recent rejection zone
Pitchfork (log scale):
➡️ Tapped the upper resistance edge before rejecting.
Previous Bear Market Fib Extension:
➡️ 2.0 extension at $122,524 hit.
2018–2022 Cycle TBFE:
➡️ 1.618 at $122,011 tapped.
Macro Fibonacci Channel:
➡️ Connecting 2018 low ($3,782), 2021 ATH ($69K), 2022 low ($15,476) →
1.618–1.666 resistance band: $121K–$123.5K.
✅ Conclusion: Multiple fib confluences mark the $122K–$123K zone as critical resistance.
Daily Timeframe
➡️ FVG / Imbalance:
Big daily Fair Value Gap between the prior ATH and $115,222 swing low.
BTC broke the prior ATH (pATH) without retest → a pullback to this zone is likely.
Lower Timeframe / Short-Term Outlook
We likely saw a completed 5-wave impulse up → now correcting.
The -6% move was probably wave A, current bounce = wave B, next leg = wave C.
➡ Wave B short zone: $120K–$121K
➡ Wave C target (1.0 TBFE projection): ~$113,326
➡ Confluence at mid-FVG + nPOC
Trade Setups
🔴 Short Setup:
Entry: $120,300–$121,000
Stop: Above current ATH (~$123,300)
Target: $113,500
R:R ≈ 1:2.3
🟢 Long Setup:
Entry: Between Prior ATH and $113,000
Stop: Below anchored VWAP (~$110,500)
Target: Higher, depending on bounce confirmation.
🧠 Educational Insight: Why Fibs Matter at Market Extremes
When markets push into new all-time highs, most classic support/resistance levels disappear — there’s simply no historical price action to lean on. That’s where Fibonacci extensions, channels, and projections become powerful tools.
Here’s why:
➡ Fibonacci extensions (like the 1.272, 1.618, 2.0) help estimate where trend exhaustion or profit-taking zones may appear. They are based on the psychology of crowd behavior, as traders anchor expectations to proportional moves from previous swings.
➡ Trend-Based Fib Extensions (TBFE) project potential reversal or continuation zones using not just price levels, but also the symmetry of prior wave moves.
➡ Fibonacci channels align trend angles across multiple market cycles, giving macro context — like how the 2018 low, 2021 ATH, and 2022 low project the current 1.618–1.666 resistance zone.
In short:
When you don’t have left-hand price history, you lean on right-hand geometry.
That’s why the $122K–123K zone wasn’t just random — it’s a convergence of multiple fib levels, cycle projections, and technical structures across timeframes.
⚡ Final Thoughts
Bitcoin faces major resistance around $122K–$123K backed by multiple fib and structural levels. A retest of the prior ATH zone (~$112K–$113K) looks probable before the next big directional move. Watch lower timeframe structure for signs of completion in this corrective phase.
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BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Bearish Momentum Towards Fair Value BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Bearish Momentum Towards Fair Value Gap
Bitcoin is showing clear bearish pressure after rejecting from the previous resistance zone around 118,800 – 120,000. The market structure and smart money concepts indicate potential for further downside.
🔍 Key Observations:
Previous Resistance Respected: Price failed to break through the strong resistance zone marked near the 119,200–120,000 level, showing strong institutional selling interest.
Market Structure Breaks:
BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed bearish shift.
Price has maintained lower highs and lower lows, signaling a bearish trend.
Liquidity/Fair Value Gap Zone: The market is currently targeting the liquidity/FVG zone between 116,400 – 116,100, which aligns with price inefficiency and unfilled orders.
Support Zone Ahead: A strong support zone is visible near 115,600 – 115,200. Expect a potential reaction or consolidation here.
📌 Strategy & Bias:
Short Bias Active until price reaches 116,116 (target).
Watch for possible bullish reversal signs in the support/FVG zone.
Ideal for scalp-to-swing short trades, with tight SL above recent EQH.
📚 Educational Notes:
Fair Value Gaps (FVG) indicate institutional imbalances and are often revisited by price.
CHoCH and BOS are early signals of smart money moves – always monitor them in confluence with volume and zones.
Bitcoin - Will the liquidity at $122K be the next target?Bitcoin is currently trading within a defined corrective channel, which has been developing over the past few weeks. Price action within this structure has been characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a mild downtrend. However, these movements lack strong momentum, indicating that the market is consolidating rather than entering a deeper correction. This kind of structure often precedes a significant breakout, and given the nature of the current price action, a retest of previous highs remains a realistic possibility.
Bullish Scenario
Looking at the overall structure of the channel, a bullish breakout seems increasingly likely. For this scenario to unfold, BTC needs to hold the midline of the channel as support. If this level is respected, it could pave the way for a push towards the upper boundary of the channel and a potential break above the lower high structure near $120,000. A successful breach of that level could trigger a move toward the $122,000 liquidity zone, with the potential to challenge the all-time high (ATH) in the near future. Holding the midline and breaking above key resistance would provide confirmation of strength and continuation to the upside.
Bearish Scenario
On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold the midline as support and starts closing below it on the 4H timeframe, we could see a renewed move toward the lower boundary of the corrective channel. This could lead to a test of the unfilled 4H fair value gap (FVG) highlighted in the chart, located around the $112,000 – $113,000 area. This zone also coincides with a strong historical support level, making it a logical area where buyers might step in and provide the momentum needed for a more sustainable bullish reversal.
Final Thoughts
While both scenarios remain valid, the price structure within the corrective channel currently leans slightly more toward a bullish outcome. The lack of aggressive selling and the potential for liquidity above the previous highs support this view. However, trading is never about certainty but about preparing for various possibilities. Being aware of both bullish and bearish setups allows traders to react with flexibility and discipline depending on how the market unfolds in the coming sessions.
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GOLD – SMC ProTrading Breakdown Plan Next WEEK GOLD – SMC ProTrading Breakdown | Clinton Scalper | 4H Timeframe
XAUUSD is currently displaying clear institutional order flow behavior after a deep liquidity sweep at the end of July. Here’s a full breakdown using advanced SMC (Smart Money Concepts) methodology:
🔍 1. Liquidity Sweep at the Low
Price maintained a series of lower highs and bearish structure until it executed a classic liquidity grab between 3,270 – 3,290. This is a textbook move by Smart Money: sweep retail stop orders before initiating a reversal.
This zone aligned with:
✅ Untapped Fair Value Gap (FVG)
✅ Reversal Order Block (OB)
✅ Fibo 0.236 of the mid-term bullish leg
After the sweep, the market printed a micro CHoCH, indicating early signs of smart money accumulation.
🧠 2. CHoCH → BOS → Reaccumulation Structure
CHoCH (Change of Character) marks the first break in the bearish microstructure – suggesting a possible shift.
Then, price delivered a BOS (Break of Structure) around the 3,334 zone, confirming bullish intent.
Buy-side is now:
Positioned from a deep discount zone
Mitigating key inefficiencies
Targeting higher liquidity zones above current price
Price is currently reacting to a previous supply OB around 3,362.
📐 3. Institutional Order Flow & Target Zones
Now that price is in a key reaction zone, we prepare for two high-probability scenarios:
🅰️ Continuation Scenario (Reaccumulation)
A retracement to the 3,317–3,311 zone (Fibo 0.5–0.618) could offer a premium re-entry
This area is stacked with:
FVG
Order Block
Equal lows liquidity
🔼 From there, potential targets include:
🎯 TP1: 3,371 – previous imbalance zone
🎯 TP2: 3,392 – minor liquidity cluster
🎯 TP3: 3,429 – premium OB and high-liquidity zone
🅱️ Distribution Scenario (Bearish Rejection)
If price fails to hold bullish structure and forms a bearish CHoCH around 3,392–3,429
This would signal a distribution zone, and potential reversal back toward 3,290 support
🔂 4. Smart Money Flow Logic
“Smart Money doesn’t follow price. They lead price to liquidity.”
This chart reflects the complete Sweep → CHoCH → BOS → Mitigation → Expansion sequence. A classic SMC Pro model where:
Liquidity is engineered and swept
Structure is shifted
Price returns to mitigate institutional entries
Price expands into external liquidity
📌 Clinton Scalper Outlook:
We don’t chase reversals – we track the footprints of capital. The real edge is understanding where smart money is positioned, and aligning with their narrative.
🔔 Stay tuned for continued updates using this precise and probability-driven Pro SMC framework.
BTC | Swing Plan UpdatePrice failed to break out above 1D supply and sharply rejected, losing key 4H demand at $117,300.
HTF demand at $109,000 (1D FVG + BOS + S/R) is the next major area of interest—this is where I’ll look for fresh swing setups if the market flushes further.
No need to rush new positions until a clean setup prints or levels are reclaimed.
Plan:
Wait for price to test $109,000 zone before considering a swing long.
Only consider LTF scalp longs if we reclaim the 4H BOS at $118,300.
Stay flat until high-probability entry, let the market show its hand.
XAUUSD Smart Money Technical Analysis – Bullish Potential XAUUSD Smart Money Technical Analysis – Bullish Potential from Strong Support
Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading around $3,291.780, showing a potential bullish reversal setup from the strong support zone after a clear liquidity sweep and market structure shifts.
🔍 Key Technical Highlights:
✅ Strong Support Zone (Demand)
Price is reacting from a major demand zone (Strong Low) between $3,275 – $3,225, a level that previously triggered bullish rallies.
Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) and CHoCH indicate previous bullish control and a possible re-accumulation phase.
✅ CHoCH Near Support
A recent Change of Character (CHoCH) around the support area shows the first signs of smart money accumulation.
Liquidity below recent lows has been swept, triggering possible bullish intent.
✅ Bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap)
A clear Bullish FVG remains unmitigated around the mid-range, offering target confluence at $3,349.560.
Price may aim to rebalance inefficiency and fill the FVG as part of the bullish move.
✅ Resistance Zone Above
The resistance area near $3,325 – $3,350 acts as a short-term target for long positions.
Further resistance lies at the Buy-Side Liquidity & Weak High zone around $3,450 if momentum sustains.
🧠 Smart Money Concept Interpretation:
Liquidity Grab: Price dipped into strong demand to collect sell-side liquidity before potential reversal.
CHoCH + BOS Alignment: Indicates the market may now transition into a bullish phase.
FVG as Magnet: Price is drawn toward unfilled value zones—ideal for bullish target projection.
🎯 Trade Idea (Educational Purposes Only):
Bias: Bullish
Entry: Around current zone ($3,290)
Target: $3,349.560 (FVG zone)
Invalidation/SL: Below strong low (~$3,225)
US100 (NASDAQ) Analysis – 1H Chart | July 31, 20251. Vertical Bullish Rally
Price exploded upward from 23,251 to 23,705 with strong bullish momentum and no meaningful retracement, indicating a short-term overbought scenario.
2. Fresh Supply at 23,705
The current candle shows hesitation just below 23,705.88 — forming a possible short-term top or reaction zone where sellers might step in.
3. Imbalance Zone Below
A visible Fair Value Gap (FVG) is left between 23,572–23,600 and the yellow highlighted demand zone (23,411) is untested. Price may revisit to fill that imbalance.
4. Projection: Pullback Possible
If price fails to break and hold above 23,705, we may see a pullback toward 23,600 → 23,411 before the next move.
5. Key Levels
Resistance: 23,705 → 23,992 → 24,278
Support: 23,572 → 23,411 → 23,251
Structure remains bullish unless 23,411 breaks.
USD Dollar Index (DXY): Pushing Higher As Forecast!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 30 - Aug1
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
USD Index
In my last USD video, the forecast was for higher prices. Check the related links below to see that video forecast. It played out exactly as analyzed. The +FVG was used to push for higher prices. The FOMC decision to keep the rate unchanged only pushed it further along.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD PLAN – LIQUIDITY HUNT BEFORE THE REAL MOVE? SCALPING PLAN – LIQUIDITY HUNT BEFORE THE REAL MOVE? 🔍
🔹 Timeframe: 30M
🔹 Bias: Intraday Bullish to Bearish Reversal
🔹 Posted by: Clinton Scalper | Smart Money Focus
🔹 Date: July 30, 2025
🔍 MACRO CONTEXT – WHY GOLD REMAINS HIGHLY REACTIVE
The macro backdrop continues to favor volatility in gold:
🟢 Dovish Fed tone ahead of FOMC
– Fed speakers hint at a pause or rate cut timeline.
– Inflation pressures are easing → lowers interest rate expectations.
📉 USD weakening + falling yields
– 10Y U.S. bonds retreating → dollar under pressure → gold gains ground.
🌐 Geopolitical risks remain elevated
– Tensions from Middle East and global recession risks continue to drive flows into safe-haven assets like gold.
🧭 Conclusion: Short-term upside still viable – but be cautious of liquidity traps and OB rejection.
📈 TECHNICAL + SMC INSIGHTS – THE CHART TELLS THE STORY
🔹 Structure Overview:
Market broke out of a descending channel and formed a bullish ascending wedge.
However, price is now approaching multiple OB SELL zones, aligning with smart money exhaustion levels.
🔹 Key Zones:
🔺 OB SELL Zones:
3,334 → 3,342
3,354 → 3,369 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension)
🔻 OB BUY Zones:
3,302 → 3,291 (confluence with previous liquidity sweep)
📍 Current Price: 3,330 – approaching first supply zone.
🔹 Smart Money Flow:
Liquidity above 3,334 has likely been targeted.
If price reaches 3,354–3,369 and shows exhaustion, expect distribution + reversal.
Key confirmation will be a break back below the ascending structure with momentum.
🎯 TRADE PLAN – TWO POSSIBLE SCALPING SCENARIOS
✅ SCENARIO 1: SHORT FROM PREMIUM OB SELL ZONE
Looking to fade bullish liquidity grab near top of range.
Entry: 3,354–3,369
SL: 3,375
TP1: 3,334
TP2: 3,302
TP3: 3,291
Ideal for reversal scalpers catching the distribution move.
✅ SCENARIO 2: LONG FROM DISCOUNT OB BUY ZONE
If price rejects OB SELL and dumps into unfilled demand.
Entry: 3,291–3,302
SL: 3,275
TP1: 3,322
TP2: 3,343
TP3: 3,354
Smart money often reloads after hunting liquidity beneath discount OBs.
⚠️ EXECUTION REMINDERS
✅ Wait for confirmation candles: engulfing / wick rejection / breaker structure
⛔ No market orders without OB reaction
📊 Risk max 1–1.5% per position
📉 Use volume to confirm absorption / exhaustion in OB zones
📢 FINAL THOUGHT – TRAPS COME FIRST, THEN MOVES
Smart Money doesn't chase price — it hunts stops first.
We’re watching closely to see if price completes its liquidity sweep at 3,354–3,369 before a potential reversal. Alternatively, we wait for price to return to the OB BUY zone around 3,291 for a high-RR long play.
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BONK | Waiting for DemandNo position yet—alerts are set for the FVG and HTF demand zone below. DOGE/BONK still showing relative strength, so patience here is warranted.
Plan:
Wait for price to tag HTF area of interest (FVG/demand).
Look for LTF trigger for a long entry.
Prefer clean sweep/reclaim for confirmation.
Reasoning:
BONK has strong momentum, but entry here is late after an extended run.
Letting the setup come to me reduces risk of getting caught in a local top.
DOGE/BONK relative strength signals not to rush.
SEI | Setup: Sweep & Reclaim Scenario:Wait for a sweep of the range low (RL) into the Daily FVG (gray box).
Look for a reclaim of RL as the trigger for a long.
Reasoning:
Sweep into FVG traps late sellers and sets up liquidity for a reversal.
Reclaiming RL after the sweep signals strength and confirms a local bottom.
No need to chase entries—best R:R is after liquidity is cleared and level is retaken.
EURUSD – Will the bullish parallel channel hold?The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading within a clearly defined bullish parallel channel, as shown on the 4-hour chart. This channel has provided consistent directional structure over recent weeks, with price respecting both its upper resistance and lower support boundaries. At present, the pair is approaching the lower end of this channel, raising the critical question: will it bounce off support and continue the bullish trajectory, or will it decisively break down, opening the door to lower price targets?
Bullish parallel channel
On the 4-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has been consistently moving within a bullish parallel channel, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This price structure suggests sustained upward momentum, with the top of the channel acting as dynamic resistance and the bottom as reliable support. Today, price action is testing the lower boundary of the channel once again. A successful hold at this level could confirm continued bullish structure and open the door for a potential rebound.
Bullish scenario
In the bullish scenario, the EUR/USD holds its ground at the support region around 1.164, where the lower boundary of the channel intersects with price. For upward continuation, it must overcome the short-term resistance posed by the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 1.169 and 1.174. A reclaim and close above this zone could signal a shift in short-term momentum and lead to a move back toward the upper boundary of the channel. However, the path upward is not without resistance , price must navigate through potential supply zones and maintain higher lows to preserve the bullish structure.
Bearish scenario
On the other hand, a break and close below the channel support could indicate a change in market sentiment and invalidate the bullish pattern. In this bearish case, we would expect a structure break confirmation followed by a possible retest of the broken trendline and the 4-hour FVG. If this retest fails to reclaim the trendline, bearish continuation becomes more likely. The next significant area of interest lies around the 1.150 level, where a bullish 4-hour FVG exists. This zone could act as a potential short-term support and serve as a target for the downside move before any meaningful bounce occurs.
Final thoughts
The EUR/USD pair is currently at a technical crossroads. Traders should watch closely for price behavior around the lower channel boundary to determine whether bullish momentum will resume or whether a bearish breakout will set the tone for deeper retracement. Confirmation, either through a bounce or a breakdown with a retest, will be key in validating the next directional move.
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XAUUSD SNIPER OUTLOOK – JULY 28, 2025🔥 Macro & Sentiment
The dollar remains dominant — DXY holding above 105 keeps gold under pressure. No fundamental support for bullish continuation unless major macro shifts. Risk flows are defensive, not aggressive. FOMC and US GDP data remain key drivers for direction this week.
BIAS:
• Short-term bearish under 3350
• Market still in distribution mode — every bounce gets sold
• Real buy interest only deep below 3315
🔻 INTRADAY SUPPLY ZONES (Short Only With Rejection)
1. 3382–3370 (H1/M30 Premium Supply)
🔹 H1 order block, FVG alignment, EMA21/50/100 convergence
🔹 Liquidity inducement above → then rejection
📍 Short only if rejection shows via engulf / upper wick.
2. 3355–3340 (Decision Zone / Micro Supply)
🔹 EMA100/200 alignment, former support flipped resistance
🔹 M30 FVG fully filled, structure flip from mid-July
📍 Short bias below. Long only if reclaimed with H1 close above 3355.
🔵 NEUTRAL / PIVOT ZONE
3. 3338–3326 (Decision Band – M30/M15)
🔹 Consolidation area post-BOS, internal liquidity sweeps
🔹 EMA21 base on M15, no clear dominance
📍 Wait for clean reaction. Bullish engulf = scalp long to 3355. Failure = slide to demand.
🟢 DEMAND ZONES (Buy Only On Strong Reversal Confirmation)
4. 3314–3302 (M30/M15 Deep Demand)
🔹 H1 OB + hidden FVG + fib 38.2%
🔹 First real demand zone where buyers may engage
📍 Long only if strong M15 confirmation: engulf + RSI cross + EMA5/21 angle change.
5. 3289–3272 (True Reversal Demand – H1/M30)
🔹 Full NY reversal origin (July 18), major FVG left unfilled
🔹 Institutional volume + liquidity grab zone
📍 Buy only on full flush + fast snapback with BOS on M15/H1.
🧭 BIAS & EXECUTION BY TIMEFRAME
H4 Bias:
Bearish while below 3350. No valid supply above until 3370+. Avoid longs unless price sweeps 3314 or 3272 and confirms.
H1 Bias:
Sell clean rejection at 3355 or 3370–3382. Only flip long above 3355 with full-bodied close.
M30 Bias:
Watch decision zone 3338–3326 for direction. No-man’s land in between — don’t force trades.
M15 Bias:
Scalp long from 3314 or 3272 only on full confluence (OB + RSI + EMA realignment). Short only confirmed rejections above.
📊 FULL INTRADAY KEY LEVELS (Top → Bottom)
Level Context
3405 Fib ext. 127% (HTF sweep target only)
3385 OB
3375–3350 Valid Premium Supply (H1 shelf)
3350–3340 Micro Supply / Flip Zone
3338–3326 Decision Zone – watch reaction
3314–3302 Deep Demand (H1/M30 confluence)
3289–3272 Extreme Demand Base
3260 Fib 61.8% + HTF support
3250 Minor volume node
3240 Final structural floor
✅ EXECUTION NOTES
⛔ Avoid entering inside 3340–3326 → fakeout zone
✅ Play only clean sniper triggers with structure
⚠️ Wait for macro — FOMC / GDP releases may fake both sides
💡 Patience wins. Pick your zone, wait for setup, strike.
Which zone are you watching to strike? Drop your bias below.
📍 Like, comment & follow GoldFxMinds for the most precise sniper maps on TradingView.
Disclosure: This plan is based on the Trade Nation chart feed. I am part of their Influencer Program.
XAUUSD H4 Outlook – “Fed Week: Only the Real Zones”Hello, gold traders!
FOMC week is here, the dollar’s flexing, and gold is stuck under a fortress of supply. No fantasy, no overlaps, just your real, actionable H4 map—zones spaced, logic tight, and all fluff deleted.
⬜Bias:
Neutral to bearish while price is capped under 3,355 and the EMA cluster.
Only flip bullish if price closes and holds above 3,375 with strong confirmation after news.
Current Price: 3,336.81
Summary for your audience:
Neutral–bearish: All the EMAs (21/50/100/200) are overhead, and the primary supply and decision zones are blocking any upside.
No reason to flip bullish unless gold breaks out and holds above both the decision zone and the full supply ceiling after major news.
All bounces into supply are likely to get faded, unless the structure changes dramatically post-FOMC.
🟥 ULTRA SUPPLY ZONE: 3,390 – 3,405
127–161.8% Fib extension—liquidity grab and stop-hunt target for news-driven spikes
Only short if you see a monster upper wick and hard rejection
🟥 PRIMARY SUPPLY: 3,365 – 3,375
All EMAs (21/50/100/200) are stacked overhead; unfilled FVG at 3,370–3,375
Short on a clear rally rejection or bearish engulfing candle—this is where most breakouts get trapped
🔶 DECISION ZONE: 3,340 – 3,355
EMA100/200 straddle this level; small FVG at 3,350–3,352
Market “decides” here—fade unless price closes decisively above 3,355
🔵 EQUILIBRIUM SHELF: 3,320 – 3,335
50% Fib at 3,327; filled FVG at 3,325–3,330; SMA50 just below
Bounce/fake-break zone—wait for a clean H4 reversal, not a guess
🟢 FIRST DEMAND BASE: 3,290 – 3,310
H4 Order Block, hidden FVG (3,300–3,305), Fib 38.2% around 3,295
Longs only with strong pin-bar/engulf and quick EMA50 reclaim
🔵 DEEP PULLBACK BAY: 3,250 – 3,280
Weekly EMA21 and 61.8% Fib (~3,260), strong volume
Only consider a long on a panic flush and a powerful reversal wick
⚡️ MACRO CONTEXT
USD: On fire into ADP and FOMC; gold moves will be explosive, not logical
Events:
Tue: ADP
Wed: FOMC + Powell
Thu: Core PCE
Fri: NFP, ISM
Bias: Neutral-bearish under 3,355; only bullish if we close and hold above 3,375
EMAs: Clustered tightly overhead—bulls get no respect until this ceiling is crushed
🎯 TRADE LOGIC
Shorts:
3,390–3,405 (big wicks and clear rejection only)
3,365–3,375 (news spike or failed breakout with bearish candle)
Longs:
3,340–3,355 (only on a confirmed close above)
3,320–3,335 (strong reversal only—don’t front run)
3,290–3,310 (classic H4 pin-bar/engulf + EMA50 reclaim)
3,250–3,280 (deep panic flush and major reversal only)
NO TRADE: In the gaps—let the gamblers get chewed up, not you.
💬 Which zone will you snipe? Drop a comment and show you’re here for structure, not noise!
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Disclosure: Chart via Trade Nation’s TradingView feed. Influencer Program participant.
GoldFxMinds 💛
Daily XAUUSD Outlook — Riding the Fed Wave (July 28, 2025)Hey Gold Hunters! 🌟
Today feels like the calm before a storm—ADP whispers tomorrow, the Fed speaks Wednesday, and gold is inching toward its next big move. Let’s weave the macro pulse into our Smart‑Money map, highlight the five real zones, then plot our sniper‑perfect entries. No fluff—just the human beat of the market.
1️⃣ Macro Pulse & Market Mood
US Dollar: Bullish tilt as markets price in another hawkish Fed pause.
Tomorrow (Tue): ADP jobs print could spark an early swing.
Wed PM: FOMC Statement & Powell’s press conference—biggest catalyst this week.
Thu/Fri: Core PCE, Unemployment Claims, then Friday’s NFP + ISM Manufacturing.
Gold is caught in suspense: a squeeze here (into supply) or a slide there (into demand) will come fast once the Fed drops its hint.
🧭 Bias: Neutral‑bearish—looking for lower highs under the 3,345–3,375 supply zone, with a preference to short rallies into that band until price convincingly breaks and holds above 3,375. Once we see a clean weekly‑style close above that level, we’ll flip to neutral‑bullish.
2️⃣ Five Breathing Zones (Top → Bottom)
🛑 Zone 1 “Sky Trap” (3,380 – 3,415)
The final airspace above our daily EMAs (10/50) where stops are hunted. Fib ext’s 127%–161.8% and an unfilled Fair‑Value Gap live here. Any spike that ends in a long upper wick or bearish engulf = short‑trap.
(let price fall clear of this zone before the next)
⚔️ Zone 2 “Premium Supply” (3,345 – 3,375)
The two‑week high order block, hugged by EMA50 and Fib 61.8%. Friday’s rejection candle was born here. Watch for bearish PA after a retest—your core sell zone.
(space down to next)
🌊 Zone 3 “First Demand Cove” (3,290 – 3,320)
Where mid‑June’s buyers piled in: June consolidation OB, filled FVG, and Fib 38.2–50% confluence. SMA100 sits below for extra gravity. A clean drop and bullish reaction here = sniper‑long trigger.
(gap to deep zone)
🚀 Zone 4 “Deep Pullback Bay” (3,240 – 3,270)
Hidden Fair‑Value Gap, BOS origin, and weekly EMA21 converge. If Zone 3 breaks, this is your deep‑dip reload—hunt that D1 reversal wick.
(last space)
🛡️ Zone 5 “Macro Reset Block” (3,000 – 3,140)
The root of 2024’s CHoCH, EMA200/SMA200 cluster, and 78.6–88.6% Fib retrace. Only if gold truly panics on a USD blitz—ultimate accumulation.
3️⃣ Sniper‑Perfect Scenarios
🔴 Short Setup
Where: A thrust into Zone 1 or 2 (3,345+).
Cue: Long upper wick → bearish engulf on D1/M30.
Edge: FVG fill + Fib confluence + RSI rollover.
🟢 Long Setup
Where: A dip into Zone 3 or, if swept, Zone 4.
Cue: Bullish pin‑bar or engulf + reclaim of EMA10/50.
Edge: June OB base + RSI bounce from ~50.
4️⃣ Your To‑Do List
Morning Watch: Does gold flirt with 3,375? Prep your shorts.
Mid‑Day Pull: A drop to 3,300? Hunt your longs.
Avoid: The gaps between zones—those are “no‑man’s land.”
News Trades: Let the daily candle close post‑Fed before committing.
💬 What’s your plan today? Comment below—let’s refine our edge!
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GoldFxMinds 💛
XAUUSD FULL WEEKLY STRUCTURE MAPHello traders! 🌟
We’re stepping into a pivotal week for gold (XAUUSD), and the weekly chart tells a story of tension, liquidity hunts, and potential big moves. Let’s dive into the three truly critical zones, backed by SMC/ICT logic, Fibonacci, EMAs, RSI, and fair‑value gaps — all in one elegant map. 🎨✨
🔹 HTF Overview & Macro Pulse
Current Price: 3336
Weekly Trend: Bullish overall, but momentum is fading as price coils under premium highs.
EMAs (5/21/50/200):
EMA5 & EMA21 are flattening beneath price, hinting at stall.
EMA50 sitting near 3120 as a deep support magnet.
RSI (Weekly): Cooling from ~75 down to ~66, showing bearish divergence vs those upper wicks.
Fair‑Value Gaps:
Unfilled 3365–3405 zone above — institutional imbalance still waiting.
Partially filled 3280–3320 below — common reaction pocket.
Fibonacci Extensions (1984 → 3365 high): 127.2% at 3405, 161.8% at 3439 — the exact top of our supply wick.
Macro Catalysts This Week
Wed (Jul 30): FOMC + Fed Statement
Thu (Jul 31): Core PCE + Unemployment Claims
Fri (Aug 1): NFP + ISM Manufacturing
Prepare for violent spikes into one of our zones — then trade the reaction.
🔸 The Three TRUE Weekly Zones
W1 Supply (Ultimate Wick Zone)
🔥 3350 – 3439
This entire wick from May–July is YOUR one and only supply zone on weekly.
Pure liquidity sweep area
Confluence: unfilled fair‑value gap, 127–161.8% Fib, RSI divergence
Every touch here is a short‑trap until we see a full weekly close above 3439.
W1 Demand (Primary Buy Zone)
🌊 3220 – 3285
The last robust order block & BOS base before gold ran vertical.
Confluence: filled FVG, weekly OB body, EMA21 target, RSI back at 50
Ideal sniper entry after a news‑driven sell‑off into this range.
Deep Discount Block
🛡️ 2960 – 3050
The origin of the full 2024–2025 bull trend — true institutional accumulation.
Confluence: March 2024 CHoCH base, EMA50/200 proximity, 78.6–88.6% Fib retrace
Only for a major quarterly reset; not on the immediate radar unless USD spikes dramatically.
🧭 Strategy & Execution
Short Bias: Wait for a liquidity spike into 3350–3439 (likely around FOMC/NFP), then watch for a clean rejection candle.
Long Bias: After a thrust down into 3220–3285, look for wick‑based rejection plus EMA21 hold and a bullish engulf on weekly.
Avoid the mid‑zone between 3285–3350 — that’s noise, not structure.
Patience is everything. Let price sweep, then let us strike. The real power trades this week will be born from clear structure — not guesswork.
💬 What’s your favorite zone to watch? Drop a comment below!
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GoldFxMinds 💛
Gold - Eyes on the Final Flush Before ReclaimGold recently dropped after reacting perfectly inside a higher time frame fair value gap. That zone acted as clean supply, offering a precise close within the imbalance and initiating a strong bearish leg. The move confirmed that buyers were overwhelmed at that level, and price began its descent back into a broader consolidation range.
Support Cluster and Fibonacci Alignment
The current zone being tested holds significant weight. Price has tapped into a clear support region, one that has already caused multiple strong bounces in recent sessions. What adds further confluence is the alignment of this zone with the golden pocket region of the entire upward leg. This kind of technical overlap increases the chances of responsive buying once liquidity is cleared below.
Liquidity Target and Inducement Setup
Just below current price action, there's a clean low that hasn't been taken out yet. This low acts as the inducement, sitting right above deeper Fibonacci levels, especially the 0.702. If price continues lower in the short term, a sweep of that low into the golden pocket would provide the ideal liquidity grab before a reversal. The market often rewards those who wait for that final flush.
Bullish Recovery Path
Once the liquidity is taken and price stabilizes at the golden pocket zone, the path is open for a recovery move back into the midrange and potentially higher. The most likely magnet for price after a successful bounce would be the previous resistance zone, which coincides with the 0.5 retracement of the recent drop. That area should act as the next decision point and could either cap the rally or provide the base for a continuation if buyers show strength.
What I’m Watching
The cleanest scenario would be a sweep of the low just below support, ideally pushing into the lower green box near the 0.702 level, followed by a strong bullish reaction. I’ll be watching for a market structure shift on the lower timeframes at that point to confirm the entry. If that happens, the trade has room to develop back into the prior resistance zone, offering a solid range for intraday or swing setups.
Conclusion
Gold remains in a broader range for now, but the technicals suggest one more drop to clear late long positions before a recovery. The reaction at the support cluster will be crucial. If bulls step in after the sweep, there’s a high-probability path back toward resistance, with the move likely supported by the golden pocket confluence.
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BTC Breaks Structure After Liquidity Grab! Massive Move Loading…BTC/USD Technical Analysis – July 25, 2025
Structure Overview:
The current BTC/USD price action showcases a classic market structure shift, with multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS), liquidity grabs, and a clear intent to revisit premium pricing zones. The chart follows a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, identifying key supply and demand areas.
Key Highlights:
🔹 Break of Structure (BOS):
Several BOS events indicate momentum shifts and short-term trend reversals. The most recent BOS near the support zone suggests a potential bullish move after liquidity sweep.
🔹 Sell-Side Liquidity & Equal Lows:
BTC swept the Equal Low level near $114,000, triggering Sell-side Liquidity. This liquidity grab is often a manipulative move by institutional players to collect orders before driving price higher.
🔹 Support Zone:
The support zone near $114,900–$114,000 is holding strong. Price wicked into this area, collected liquidity, and reacted with bullish intent.
🔹 Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG):
A Bearish FVG exists around $117,500–$118,000, which may act as short-term resistance. Price could partially fill this gap before resuming direction.
🔹 Target Zone:
Projected target lies at $119,637, aligning with the prior resistance zone and offering a high-probability area for price delivery based on the current bullish market structure.
🔹 Volume Profile Support:
The volume profile suggests high volume accumulation in the current range, further supporting the possibility of a bullish expansion phase.
Forecast Summary:
Bias: Bullish (Short-term)
Entry Zone: Confirmed after BOS and liquidity sweep near support
Target: $119,637 (resistance zone)
Invalidation Level: Sustained break below $114,000
⚠️ Risk Note:
A rejection from the Bearish FVG or failure to break above $117,800 may cause a deeper pullback. Monitor reactions around key levels before continuation.
XLM Explodes +132% — Is the Party Over or Just Starting?XLM has been one of the top movers, sweeping the January 2025 swing high at $0.515 before stalling and moving sideways for the past 4 days.
Is XLM gearing up for another push toward the highs, or is a correction imminent?
Let’s dive into the details.
🧩 Market Structure & Fractal Pattern
XLM skyrocketed +132% in just 13 days, mirroring the explosive move seen back in November 2024.
If we apply the November fractal, the current price action suggests we could be setting up for an ABC corrective move.
📉 Key Levels & Confluences
FVG Zone: ~$0.49–$0.50 — likely to be swept before any major move down.
Monthly Support: $0.4142
Key Level / Liquidity Pool: $0.4056 — likely cluster of stop-losses.
Anchored VWAP (from $0.2228 start of trend): currently near $0.4056, adding strong confluence.
1.0 Trend-Based Fib Extension (ABC projection): If price pushes to ~$0.49 to complete wave B, the projected 1.0 TBFE for wave C lands right on the $0.4056 key level + VWAP, creating a perfect confluence zone.
➡️ Conclusion: The $0.4142–$0.4056 zone is a critical support and liquidity area with multiple confluences lining up.
Trade Setups
🔴 Short Setup:
Entry zone: $0.48–$0.50 (ladder in)
Stop-loss: Above $0.5166 (prior high)
Take-profit: $0.4142–$0.4056 zone
R:R ≈ 1:3
🟢 Long Setup:
Entry zone: $0.4142–$0.4056 (preferably near VWAP)
Stop-loss: Below $0.395
Take-profit: $0.44
⚡ Final Thoughts
Watch for a potential final push toward $0.49–$0.50 before a corrective wave unfolds.
The confluence at the $0.4142–$0.4056 zone — including monthly/weekly levels, VWAP, liquidity pool, and the 1.0 TBFE target — makes it a key area for decision-making.
Stay patient and wait for confirmation at these levels. Will post an update as things unfold!
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DOGE – HTF Plan & Spot Reload ZoneSpot Position & Realized Profit:
Spot position held from the $0.19 sweep.
Previous long from demand taken and partially realized at $0.26, de-risking the core position.
Current Structure:
After reaching resistance ($0.26–$0.27 zone), price is retracing.
Daily demand/support sits around $0.20–$0.21, with multiple confluences for spot re-accumulation.
Immediate Plan:
Waiting for price to revisit daily demand ($0.20–$0.21) to reload spot and/or open fresh longs.
Watching for a possible lower timeframe (1H) bullish confirmation (e.g., 1H change of structure/1H CSD) as a trigger for a tactical long before daily demand is tagged.
LTF Play:
If price prints a 1H CSD, a quick long up to daily imbalance ($0.24–$0.25) can be considered.
Invalidation:
Loss of daily demand ($0.188) would invalidate the bullish scenario and require re-evaluation.
Upside Target:
If demand holds, looking for moves back into daily supply/imbalance, with ultimate HTF targets at $0.26, $0.32, and higher.
Reasoning:
The core plan is to build spot exposure at strong demand after de-risking on the first move up. The context is that DOGE has shown willingness to bounce at major demand, and with realized profits in the pocket, risk can be managed comfortably on new entries. Short-term, LTF confirmation (such as a 1H CSD) can offer a tactical long back into daily imbalance before the main reloading zone is tagged. Patience and precise triggers are key—no need to rush until price action confirms.
Understanding Market Structure: GBPJPY Trendline Support 📊 GBPJPY Technical Analysis — 15-Min Chart (As of July 24, 2025)
Trend Structure & Price Action
The chart shows a clear ascending trendline, connecting higher lows across the last sessions.
Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) points confirm bullish market behavior, with price consistently forming higher highs and higher lows.
The most recent BOS and price rejection from the lower boundary of the cloud band indicate bullish intent is still active.
Indicators Used
Custom Cloud Band (EMA Based 20, 1.5 settings):
Price is oscillating within and around the cloud band.
Recent candles are attempting to reclaim the upper band, suggesting building bullish momentum.
Volume Profile (VRVP) shows strong volume support around the 198.200–198.500 range, aligning with the trendline.
Support & Resistance
Support Zone: 198.200 (trendline confluence + volume shelf)
Immediate Resistance: 198.800–199.000
Major Resistance: 199.400 (next psychological level and prior high)
Forecast & Trade Idea (Educational Purpose)
If price continues to respect the ascending trendline and breaks above the recent local high (~198.750), we could see a bullish breakout toward 199.200+.
A bullish flag or small consolidation above the trendline before breakout is likely, as illustrated by the arrow.
Invalidation occurs if price breaks and closes below the trendline and 198.200, which may trigger a short-term correction.
✅ Conclusion
GBPJPY is currently in a bullish market structure with support from both trendline and volume profile. A clean breakout above 198.800 with volume confirmation could fuel continuation toward 199.200 and beyond. Risk management is crucial — watch for false breakouts or a shift in structure below the rising trendline.
Mastering Buy Side and Sell Side Liquidity - How to trade it!In trading, understanding liquidity is one of the keys to predicting where the market might go next. The Inner Circle Trader (ICT) method teaches traders how to recognize where big players like banks and institutions are likely to enter or exit trades. Two important ideas in ICT trading are buy side liquidity and sell side liquidity. Once you understand what these terms mean and how to spot them on a chart, you can start using them to find better trading opportunities.
What will be discussed?
- What is Buy Side Liquidity?
- What is Sell Side Liquidity?
- How do you see Buy and Sell Side Liquidity?
- Examples
- How to trade BSL and SLL Liquidity?
What is Buy Side Liquidity
Buy side liquidity is found above market highs. It refers to all the stop loss orders from people who are holding short positions. When the market is going down, some traders sell (or go short) and place their stop losses above recent highs to protect themselves. These stop losses are actually buy orders because closing a short position requires buying. Big institutions know this, so they push price upward to trigger those stop losses and grab that liquidity. That’s why you’ll often see the market spike above a recent high before reversing. That spike is the market grabbing buy side liquidity.
What is Sell Side Liquidity
Sell side liquidity is the opposite. It’s found below recent lows. This is where traders who are buying (going long) place their stop losses. If someone buys a market, they’ll usually put a stop loss just below a previous low. That stop loss is a sell order. Smart money looks at these areas as pools of sell side liquidity. So when the market moves down quickly and breaks a recent low, it’s likely collecting those sell stop orders. After that, you’ll often see a reversal because the liquidity has been taken.
How do you see Buy and Sell Side Liquidity?
You can spot buy side and sell side liquidity by looking at the chart and identifying recent highs and lows where many traders might have placed stop losses. These are usually obvious swing highs and swing lows. If you look at a chart and see a clean high where price previously reversed, that’s likely where traders are placing stops. That makes it a target for buy side liquidity. Same for a recent low, if it’s a clean level where people might have bought in the past, that low probably holds sell side liquidity. The more obvious the level looks, the more likely it’s full of stops and therefore a liquidity target.
Examples
How to trade BSL and SLL Liquidity?
Trading liquidity means watching for the market to run above a recent high (to take buy side liquidity) or below a recent low (to take sell side liquidity), and then looking for signs of reversal. Once liquidity has been taken, the market often changes direction.
When you’re trading the ICT concept of liquidity, the key is not just spotting where liquidity lies, but also knowing when price is likely to reverse after that liquidity has been taken. Reversals don’t happen randomly, they leave clues on the chart. Here’s how you can recognize those signs in a simple way:
1. Market Structure Break
This is one of the clearest signs of a reversal. Let’s say the market grabs sell side liquidity by breaking below a recent low. If price then quickly starts moving up and breaks above the last lower high, that’s a break in structure. It shows that sellers are losing control and buyers are stepping in. It’s the first confirmation that the direction might be changing.
2. Rejection Wicks or Strong Candles
After price runs into liquidity (above a high or below a low), watch the candlesticks closely. If you see a long wick rejecting the level, or a strong candle in the opposite direction right after the liquidity grab, that’s a clue. It means price went there, collected the orders, and got rejected fast. That rejection shows the market might be reversing.
3. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
Fair value gaps are small “windows” left in price when it moves quickly in one direction. After liquidity is taken and price starts reversing, it often leaves an FVG behind. If price pulls back into that gap and holds, that can be a great entry point. FVGs act like magnets and support zones in ICT.
4. Displacement
Displacement is a strong, impulsive move that breaks structure. It usually happens right after liquidity is taken. If price moves very fast in the opposite direction after hitting a liquidity level, that’s a good sign smart money is behind the move and it’s not just random noise. That strong push is a hint that a new trend might be forming.
5. Change in Character (CHOCH)
This is a shift in how the market behaves. For example, price might be making lower highs and lower lows (a bearish trend), but after liquidity is taken, it suddenly starts making higher highs and higher lows. That change in character tells you the trend might be reversing.
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EUR/USD - Bullish parallel channel formation!The EUR/USD currency pair is currently exhibiting a bullish market structure on the 4-hour timeframe, moving steadily within a well-defined ascending parallel channel. Price action has consistently bounced between the lower and upper boundaries of the channel, with each dip finding support at the lower trendline and each rally meeting resistance near the upper trendline. This ongoing pattern suggests a strong and orderly bullish trend as the pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows within the channel.
The Market’s Upward Momentum
One notable feature of this trend is the recurring formation of 4-hour Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) during each upward leg. These FVGs act as temporary inefficiencies in the price movement, which the market consistently returns to fill before resuming its bullish momentum. As shown in the chart, the EUR/USD has filled multiple FVGs over the past week. Today, the pair once again retraced to fill a newly formed 4H FVG and has since continued its move higher. This repeated behavior reinforces the strength of the uptrend, as the market efficiently corrects itself and then propels further in the direction of the overall trend.
Bullish Outlook
From a bullish perspective, the key level to watch is the horizontal resistance zone around 1.1766. A confirmed break and hold above this level would signal a strong continuation of the current uptrend. Should the price sustain itself above this level, it could initiate a renewed push toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel, potentially targeting levels near 1.1820 and beyond. This scenario would confirm market confidence and open the door for further gains.
Bearish Risk
On the flip side, the bearish case would involve a false breakout above the 1.1766 resistance level, followed by a sharp rejection and a break below the rising lower trendline of the channel. Such a move would invalidate the current structure and shift the bias to the downside. In that case, the 4-hour FVG located between approximately 1.1710 and 1.1740 will act as a critical support zone. If this area fails to hold, it could trigger a deeper retracement and potentially lead to a more prolonged bearish correction.
Final thoughts
In summary, the EUR/USD is currently respecting a bullish parallel channel on the 4-hour timeframe, with upward moves consistently leaving and then filling 4H FVGs before continuing higher. The 1.1766 level is pivotal, a sustained break above it favors continued bullish momentum, while a rejection and breakdown from the channel could signal a bearish reversal. Traders should closely monitor price behavior around this key level and the integrity of the ascending channel to anticipate the next significant move.
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