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Week of May 12 - AAPL/BTC/DJI/VIX/10yr Last week we had record low volume on indexes as they drifted higher. There as a drought of news to move the market - and the volume was reminiscent of a holiday week. Indexes The DJI went vertical to fill the last weekly imbalance we had that was MOST in the premium of the swing. From HERE - we are at a major deciding point. The weekly chart still is bearish and we need to confirm this was just our back-test. CBOT_MINI:YM1! needs to respect this weekly FVG and starting heading lower confirming this as our "lower high". Wicks above and outside the weekly FVG are permitted - but notice how they closed the weekly candle INSIDE the FVG - this means that the FVG is still being respected. IF we can get confirmation of this being the lower high as set - the next logical targets are the April Lows/LOY. The scam-ridden CME_MINI:NQ1! didn't do much this week but flop around inside a 2% range. I have no clear weekly bias on Nasdaq so I can't really comment too much on it. The best thing I can see is that NASDAQ:AAPL is holding up here, but its ready to drop lower into the gap that was created. Once that happens, the market will go with it. So far, its just a series of lower lows and lower highs. Sectors One thing I want to touch on - is where we are in the cycle. The way we can identify this, is that we can look at typical "late cycle" charts on Energy/Materials/Metals and compare them to the SPX. When you see these sectors rallying - its typically near/at the market tops. Here is chart of $XLB/$XLI/$XLE/$XLP/ When you see Materials/Industrials/Energy/Staples all running up like this - it means that money is moving from things like tech and communication services - and into "safer" sectors. Bitcoin One of my favorite things to look at for a risk-apatite gauge is Bitcoin. Weekly BTC is down by 17%. IF it doesn't bounce from down here and soon - a new bear market will begin. This week will give us CPI/PCE reports mid week that will be the key driver for the next market move. VIX Another concerning thing for bulls is the fact that the VIX is now near its yearly lows, and indexes aren't making ATH. Again - This all smells super trappy as the market is setting up for the move during the mid-week inflation report releases. Interest Rates Rates are rolling over. The 10year continued its march lower this week and is now respecting bearish FVGs which is what we want to see. Half the reason that markets were able to drift higher this past week was due to the rates market being stable. This Bond trade is a longer term swing as I think that rates will crater during the coming recession. So far - the 2/10 spread remains inverted for 2 years now. This is a RECORD duration and depth of yield curve inversion. This spread has a 100% accuracy rate when it comes to predicting recessions. Note the dates in the vertical white bars - once the 2s/10s un-invert - we have a recession 100% of the time. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; We saw YM pop into our MOST premium weekly IRL level - from here I will be looking for 4hr charts to displace lower and start the march towards nLOY. Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while. BTC needs to make a stand here - or its going to enter another bear market. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024Short
by Baero-Trading
"The Bodies Tell The Story.. The Wicks Do The Damage" - ICTIn this video I'm going to go through one of ICT's most famous sayings, which is "The bodies tell the story, and the wicks do the damage". If haven't taken the time to understand what he means, then you are seriously putting yourself at a disadvantage if you are using his concepts. This is one of the most crucial and useful pieces of the ICT puzzle. You often hear him say that the wicks are painting outside of the lines, which he sees as permissable when he is trading his PD Arrays. So without further ado, I'll try my best to provide some insight. For illustrative purposes I'll use his Market Maker Sell Model. Just to note that this is not a video teaching about his market maker models, so the focus will not be on that or his other concepts. If you don't understand a certain term or concept, please check out ICT's YouTube Channel or the countless other resources online. This video will be predominantly shedding some light on candle bodies and wicks. I urge you to go into your own charts and do your own study. This will truly be something eye opening if it is the first time you've actually decided to take notice. - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded
2
US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Expecting a BULLISH Move This WeekLooking for an Internal to External move this week. Price is currently in a a +FVG, showing respect, and Friday's candle shows momentum towards the high of the previous week, which is the draw on liquidity. Watch for the short term down move before the move up. Wed's opposing candle should act as support, and send price the other way. LIKE, COMMENT or SUBSCRIBE if you like and want to see more analysis. Thank you for viewing!
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
S&P500 (ES1!, SPX500, SP500) From Bullish to BEARISH1. Price swept a lot of low resistance lows with this bearish impulse, and created a new Swing Low. This is the External move. 2. Price retraced to the -FVG, a premium PD Array. This is an Internal Range Liquidity move. Expecting price to wick up past the PDH, but close inside the -FVG, and potentially end the retracement. Bearish PA should follow. Price is in premium prices now, as it crossed the Equilibrium of the trading range. Buys are not recommended until the price action shows a significant +BOS with a strong bullish close. LIKE, COMMENT or SUBSCRIBE if you like and want to see more analysis. Thank you for viewing!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RT_Money
EUR (6E1!, EURUSD) Taking a BEARISH TurnLooking for an Internal to External move this week. From the Weekly -FVG to the low at 1.06285. The early part of the week may see price head up to sweep LQ before turning over and dropping. * Should the 4H show a bearish break of structure with a strong close, it may provide an early signal that the retracement has ended and sells should be sought. LIKE, COMMENT or SUBSCRIBE if you like and want to see more analysis. Thank you for viewing!
CME:6E1!
by RT_Money
Trading EURUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 24/04/2024At 8:45 AM EST EURUSD made a big move down that took out the Judas Swing Zone Low. Then it came straight back up to create a BOS(break of structure). After the liquidity grab at the low and the subsequent break of structure (BOS), we patiently awaited a retracement towards the initial Fair Value Gap (FVG) that emerged during the displacement leg. We then waited for price to retrace, filling or touching the created Fair Value Gap (FVG), and only executed our trade once the candle that touched or entered the FVG had closed. After executing the trade, price initially moved favourably in our direction. However, it later took a turn towards our stop loss. Despite this, we maintained confidence in our strategy, given its extensive backtesting, which has demonstrated a win rate of 52.78% on EURUSD. Despite being in a drawdown at this point, we remained steadfast in our approach. Having accepted the calculated risk of only 1% of our account for a potential 2% gain, we were unfazed by the proximity of price to our stop loss, and maintained our trust in the strategy. Price eventually reversed and paused briefly around our entry point before resuming its favourable movement. We remained unperturbed by the duration of the trade, as our strategy data indicates an average trade duration of 8 hours and 27 minutes. We patiently waited, and our persistence paid off when our target was finally reached, securing a 2% gain on the trade where we had risked 1%
by CleoFinance
Trading ForexThe Forex Market is very consistent. It repeats itself day in and day out. It is an objective force of nature and follows rules. Therefore if you leverage the rules inside of an objective strategy you are able to extract as many pips out of every Macro move that the asset you are trading makes. Today we understand that EURUSD is Bullish. Therefore the algorithm will take out Sell Side Liquidity 1st typically to the 3rd or 4th Second Deviation. There is a FVG that may anchor the sell. 5am EST is PTT aka Profit Taking Time when the market typically consolidates and sets up the 7-10am Sniper Window. Never Over Leverage. Always remember your Narrative is your trade if you don't have one you don't have a trade. Trust your set up. Have a Great Trading Day!
Short
by Master-Jedi-Trader
GBPNZD Short TradeMARKET PHASE GBPNZD is in a long term downtrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour). AREA OF VALUE Price continued to break new highs within this corrective structure. Eventually, price reached an area where sellers stepped in, resulting in a buildup of liquidity (buy stops, longs, short stop losses) above the corrective structure swing highs. Price violently moved up to trigger the buy stops (liquidity) to pair against the sell orders needed to take price down. Price then started it's initial move down and actually sustained selling pressure for some time. Due to the velocity of the downward move, priced gapped orders around 2.11584. Price may climb back to 2.11584, before selling off during the London session (News: Inflation Data). Therefore, we've setup a sell limit order with the following parameters: TRADE Sell Limit: 2.11584 Stop Loss: 2.12124 Take Profit: 2.10504
Short
by Mankz
AUDUSD Long TradeMARKET PHASE OANDA:AUDUSD is in a long term uptrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour). AREA OF VALUE Price continued to break lows within the corrective structure until it began to hold the bottom. There was a buildup of liquidity (sell stops, shorts, long order stop losses) below the corrective structure swing lows. Price violently moved down to trigger the sell stops (liquidity) to pair against the buy orders needed to take price up. Price has now started it’s initial move up but due to the velocity of the upward move, it's gapped orders around 0.65340. Price retraced back to this level to meet the demand and our entry was triggered. We can now expect a strong push upwards in the direction of the larger trend. TRADE I've entered my long position on OANDA:AUDUSD as follows: Buy Limit: 0.65340 Stop Loss: 0.65072 Take Profit: 0.65877
Long
by Mankz
I'm Back: EURAUD ShortMARKET PHASE OANDA:EURAUD is in a long term downtrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour). AREA OF VALUE Price continued to break new highs within this corrective structure. Eventually, price reached an area where sellers stepped in, resulting in a buildup of liquidity (buy stops, longs, short stop losses) above the corrective structure swing highs. Price violently moved up to trigger the buy stops (liquidity) to pair against the sell orders needed to take price down. Price then started it's initial move down and actually sustained selling pressure for some time. Due to the velocity of the downward move, priced gapped around 1.64394. During this morning, price hit 1.64394 a couple times and sold off aggressively, supporting our thesis. Our sell limit order was filled and we are now in a short with the following parameters: TRADE Sell Limit: 1.64394 Stop Loss: 1.64534 Take Profit: 1.64114
Short
by Mankz
EURGBP LongMARKET PHASE OANDA:EURGBP is in a long term uptrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour). AREA OF VALUE Price continued to break lows within the corrective structure until it began to hold the bottom. There was a buildup of liquidity (sell stops, shorts, long order stop losses) below the corrective structure swing lows. Price violently moved down to trigger the sell stops (liquidity) to pair against the buy orders needed to take price up. Price has now started it’s initial move up but due to the velocity of the upward move, it's gapped orders around 0.85773. Price has retraced back to this level to meet the demand multiple times and is met with extreme buying pressure. We can now expect a strong push upwards in the direction of the larger trend. TRADE I've entered my long position on OANDA:EURGBP as follows: Buy Limit: 0.85773 Stop Loss: 0.85733 Take Profit: 0.85853
Long
by Mankz
1
GBPNZD ShortMARKET PHASE OANDA:GBPNZD is in a long term downtrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour). AREA OF VALUE Price continued to break new highs within this corrective structure. Eventually, price reached an area where sellers stepped in, resulting in a buildup of liquidity (buy stops, longs, short stop losses) above the corrective structure swing highs. Price violently moved up to trigger the buy stops (liquidity) to pair against the sell orders needed to take price down. Price then started it's initial move down and actually sustained selling pressure for some time. Due to the velocity of the downward move, priced gapped around 2.09800. During this morning, price hit 2.09800, and began selling off, supporting our thesis. Our sell limit order was filled and we are now in a short with the following parameters: TRADE Sell Limit: 2.09800 Stop Loss: 2.10100 Take Profit: 2.09200
Short
by Mankz
$CRYPTO:PEELUSD long (based on SMC)CRYPTO:PEELUSD (Peel) is a cryptocurrency renowned for its high volatility, presenting both significant risks and lucrative opportunities for investors. The coin's volatility is central to its appeal, attracting traders looking to capitalize on price fluctuations. The investment strategy behind Peel/USD is grounded in the Smart Money Concept (SMC), a methodology that seeks to exploit market inefficiencies and capitalize on shifts in supply and demand dynamics. At the time of entry, Peel/USD is positioned at 0.01240, leveraging the demand zone identified within the daily timeframe. This strategic entry point is crucial, as it aligns with the principles of SMC, aiming to enter the market at opportune moments to maximize profit potential. The primary profit-taking strategy involves setting a target price (TP) at 0.03642, representing a substantial upside potential from the entry point. However, it's imperative to adopt a staggered approach to profit-taking, securing gains at intervals leading up to the full TP. This mitigates risk and ensures that profits are locked in along the way, safeguarding against sudden market reversals. Given the inherent volatility of Peel/USD, implementing a manual stop-loss (SL) strategy is advisable. While a predefined SL based on a 3% loss can be considered, it's crucial to acknowledge the heightened likelihood of SL triggers due to the coin's erratic price movements. Traders must exercise caution and monitor market conditions closely to adjust SL levels accordingly, minimizing potential losses while maximizing profit potential within this dynamic trading environment.
CRYPTO:PEELUSDLong
by smarttrader012
1
Catching the Wave: BFIC/USDT Trade SetupWelcome to my trade idea for BITMART:BFICUSDT (BFIC/USDT), where I aim to capitalize on technical signals. For our entry strategy, we have identified two potential points: First Entry: Our initial entry point is at 9.8115. This decision is supported by a bullish 1-hour FAIR Value Gap (FVG) signal. Second Entry: We will consider a second entry opportunity at 9.5002. To mitigate risk, our stop-loss (SL) for both entries combined is set at 9.1682. Additionally, it's advisable to practice dollar-cost averaging (DCA) if the price retraces to 9.2716, further minimizing potential losses. Regarding our target price (TP), we're eyeing the all-time high (ATH) at 39.9. While it's natural to anticipate when this level might be reached, it's essential to remain flexible. You have the option to take profits before the full TP is achieved, ensuring you lock in gains along the way. In summary, we're riding BFIC/USDT with technical finesse, keeping our eyes on the charts. Stick to the plan, stay flexible, and let's ride those waves to profit town! 🚀📈 Like (boost), follow, comment and share this idea!!! For the optimal TradingView experience, upgrade now to unlock the platform's full potential: www.tradingview.com
Long
by smarttrader012
🚀🌕 Dogecoin Long Opportunity: Entry at Demand Zone and FVG💰Hey traders! 🎩💼 I trust you're all doing well. Here's an enticing trade proposition for BINANCE:DOGEUSDT (DOGE/USDT), offering not one but two potential entries. 1st Entry: 0.18157 We're initiating our first entry based on the presence of a demand zone (SMC). This strategic entry point presents a promising opportunity to capitalize on potential bullish momentum. 2nd Entry: 0.17400 Our second entry is triggered by a Fair Value Gap (FVG), adding another layer of confidence to our position. This secondary entry reinforces our conviction in the trade setup. (before reading further, follow, like and comment what you think about this idea...) Stop Loss (SL): 0.17058 To mitigate risk, our stop loss is set at 0.17058. This level acts as a safeguard against adverse price movements, ensuring prudent risk management. Target: $1 (Long-term Vision) 🎯 Now, our target is set at $1. But hey, we're not just staring at the stars here; we're ready to sell before the biggest TP hits if needed. (....and share) However, it's essential to exercise flexibility and consider taking profits earlier, albeit retaining a portion of DOGE. Elon Musk's tweets have historically influenced DOGE's trajectory, potentially propelling it "to the moon." This signal is based on SMC strategy... You also want to learn SMC strategy? Great, right it down in the comments!
Long
by smarttrader012
2
Smart Money Concept for 1000Bonk/USDT.P In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency trading, precision and foresight are paramount. Our analysis of 1000Bonk/USDT.P reveals an intriguing opportunity rooted in the Smart Money Concept (SMC), providing a roadmap for potential gains amidst market fluctuations. Over the past day, 1000Bonk/USDT.P has surged to considerable heights, but signs indicate an impending downturn, albeit the timing remains uncertain. Leveraging the principles of SMC, we pinpoint an entry point at 0.024720. This selection aligns strategically with a 4-hour fair value gap (FVG), presenting an opportune moment to enter the market. To mitigate risk, we implement a stop-loss (SL) at 0.023544, positioned 0.8% below the 4-hour FVG. This precautionary measure serves as a safeguard against adverse movements, preserving capital in the event of unexpected market shifts. Our take-profit (TP) strategy is finely tuned to capitalize on market dynamics. We identify a TP level of 0.031182, strategically located at a bearish Order Block (OB). This targeted approach ensures that potential gains are maximized while maintaining a disciplined exit strategy. Furthermore, traders are encouraged to exercise flexibility in managing their positions, with the option to scale out profits or adjust TP levels based on evolving market conditions. By integrating adaptability with strategic analysis, traders can optimize their returns and navigate the complexities of cryptocurrency trading with confidence.
Long
by smarttrader012
1