11/26/23 US30 Weekly Outlook11/26/23 US30 Weekly Outlook
#US30 #WeeklyOutlook
Last week did as expected by continuing to take out highs. We were busy Sunday to Wednesday and stalled out on early market closure because of the holiday. Next week should be busy with a lot of news and we may also get some early reports on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. We have news to watch out for everyday up until Friday at 11am when Powell speaks. However, we don’t have #NFP until next Friday. So #powell, #UnemploymentClaims, #PCE, #gdp, #Consumerconfidence, will be the big news releases to watch out for
#BullishCase: The bullish case is to take the PWH on each of the time frames. There are -POIs above us that are still our HTF draw. We tapped a W-FVG around 16000 and are in the moment fading into a 4H+FVG that we have already traded up from. On the LTF, after we take the PDL we made on Friday, we will need to watch how price reacts with the FVG on the LTFs
#BearishCase: The bearish case is the PDL from Friday as well. If we trade through this low with impulse, then I will aim for the PDLs from Wednesday and Thursday on the LTFs
1H chart
4h chart
D chart:
W chart
Fvg
ATOM/USDT, Potential to Reach FVG ZoneThe price is currently testing the 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) zone, which is often considered a critical level for maintaining bullish or bearish trends. It appears that the 200 EMA zone has been broken, suggesting potential bearish momentum but the breakdown was too quick without securing this zone there. In addition to that the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone that has not yet been filled, indicating that there may be a price movement towards this area in the future.
The presence of strong support zones below suggests that if the price continues to decline, these areas might provide some level of price stability. However, the break below the 200 EMA may lead to further downside risk, potentially activating sell-side strategies targeting the lower support levels what we are also waiting for as well!
Swallow Team
11/21/23 All Indices Daily Outlook#NAS #SPX #US30 #DailyReview #DailyOutlook
In the over night sessions, price was the smoothest on the indices, as the price failed to take out the PDHs on SPX and US30. NAS tapped the PDH and traded above it only to move back into the previous day’s range. The #fomc meeting notes and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the afternoon seems to have held up up for now. The #homesales numbers came in off projects:
10:00am
USD
Existing Home Sales
3.79M 3.90M 3.95M
The interest rates have dropped but this isn’t the time we’d typically see this number kicking up.
Each of the indices has traded into 4H+FVG and that implies that we could still move up from where we are. The PDL from yesterday is my SSL draw if we push to the downside and the PWHs are still my targets for an upside move.
#BullishCase As we have rest in this 4H+FVG on all 3 indexes, we’ll need to look for price to hold. As long as we don’t have an impulse to the downside through a PDL, we should be okay to still see a move from the FVG range. SPX and NAS, both have BSL as targets from the Closing session. But the targets, aside from this will be the the BSL, PDH and Was for all the Indices.
#BearishCase If we manage to trade through the PDL on each of the indices and we do so with an impulse this will change my view of the short-term/ midterm to look for a sell. This would imply that the 4H+FVG has been mitigated and we could potentially see that IFVG or inverse FVG setup play out.
For either situation patience and price action will lead the way!
All Charts 1H
XAG/USD ↘️ Short Trade Setup ↘️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽♂️
Oversold + Demand zone
🟠 EP 23.41685
🔴 SL 23.71720
🟢 TP1 23.10085 ⚠️( Close 33% of the trade and Set the SL on EP )⚠️
🟢 TP2 22.81060 ⚠️ ( Close 33% of the trade )⚠️
🟢 TP3 22.50200 🔥 ( Final result)🔥
We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone,
manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $.
Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us.
Follow us for more 🙋🏻♂️
Best Regard / EMA Trading .
Disclaimer:
----------------
It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market
SNX/USDT Long Trade Setup ⬆️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽♂️
FVG + Nadaraya Watson
🟠 EP 3.367
🔴 SL 3.202
🟢 TP1 3.534 ⚠️( Close 33% of the trade and Set the SL on EP )⚠️
🟢 TP2 3.699 ⚠️ ( Close 33% of the trade )⚠️
🟢 TP3 3.861 🔥 ( Final result)🔥
We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone,
manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $.
Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us.
Follow us for more 🙋🏻♂️
Best Regard / EMA Trading .
Disclaimer:
----------------
It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market
11/19/23 DXY Weekly Outlook#DXY #WeeklyOutlook
Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On Tuesday we do have #ExistingHomeSales which will ll be something that's an economic gauge more so than something we may want to trade off of, but we can see what happens on Tuesday. After Wednesday, there's not really much going into Thursday and Friday because Thursday is a holiday, although we do close out the week with #PMI.
Probability for dollar this week looks like we will definitely take out the PWL last week that I was sitting at 103.815. We are sitting inside a D+FVG but we have the yearly opening price #YOP just about 0.31% below us and that may be what we’re drawn to at least to tap it. We could see some LTF moves to the up side but the daily and weekly charts are pretty heavily favored to the downside meaning that:
XXX/USD bullish
USD/XXX bearish
D chart
11/19/23 SPX Weekly Outlook#SPX #WeeklyOutlook:
Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On Tuesday we do have #ExistingHomeSales which will ll be something that's an economic gauge more so than something we may want to trade off of, but we can see what happens on Tuesday. After Wednesday, there's not really much going into Thursday and Friday because Thursday is a holiday, although we do close out the week with #PMI.
We set the PWL inside of a 4H+FVG and never came back near it. We expanded and created +FVGs on the Daily, 4H, and 1H that held price near the WHs once the #cpi news release on last Tuesday. If we stay in inverse correlation to the dollar I would assume the PWHs are still our targets on the HTF. Nothing is really standing in the way of of us pushing higher into them and if we see any LTF moves to the downside I’d take them with the logic that we are trading into bullish points of interest POIs .
#BullishCase: We see price stalling and react to a LTF POI and bounce to take the PWHs out. I would look for any recent bullish order blocks or fair value gaps and look for price to react there.
#BearishCase: We are pushing up hard over the past 3 weeks and all the down moves, even the ones that seem to be setting us up for lower price have been bought back up. LTF moves at fresh bearish POIs from the 4H or 1H are the only sell setups I’ll probably look for and doing so with the #BullishCase in mind. We closed out Friday to the downside and we have two PDLs and into the FVGs, and these would be my short terms downside targets.
1H chart
4H chart
D Chart
11/19/23 NAS Weekly Outlook#NAS #WeeklyOutlook
Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On Tuesday we do have #ExistingHomeSales which will ll be something that's an economic gauge more so than something we may want to trade off of, but we can see what happens on Tuesday. After Wednesday, there's not really much going into Thursday and Friday because Thursday is a holiday, although we do close out the week with #PMI.
We set the PWL inside of a 4H+FVG and never came back near it. We expanded and created +FVGs on the Daily, 4H, and 1H that held price near the WHs once the #cpi news release on last Tuesday. If we stay in inverse correlation to the dollar I would assume the PWHs are still our targets on the HTF. Nothing is really standing in the way of of us pushing higher into them and if we see any LTF moves to the downside I’d take them with the logic that we are trading into bullish points of interest POIs .
#BullishCase: We see price stalling and react to a LTF POI and bounce to take the PWHs out. I would look for any recent bullish order blocks or fair value gaps and look for price to react there. We have a W-FVG that is my main target for us on NAS
#BearishCase: We are pushing up hard over the past 3 weeks and all the down moves, even the ones that seem to be setting us up for lower price have been bought back up. LTF moves at fresh bearish POIs from the 4H or 1H are the only sell setups I’ll probably look for and doing so with the #BullishCase in mind. We closed out Friday to the downside and we have two PDLs and into the FVGs, and these would be my short terms downside targets.
1H chart
4h chart
D chart:
11/19/23 US30 Weekly Outlook#US30 #WeeklyOutlook
Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On Tuesday we do have #ExistingHomeSales which will ll be something that's an economic gauge more so than something we may want to trade off of, but we can see what happens on Tuesday. After Wednesday, there's not really much going into Thursday and Friday because Thursday is a holiday, although we do close out the week with #PMI.
We set the PWL inside of a D+OB and never came back near it. We expanded and created +FVGs on the Daily, 4H, and 1H that held price near the WHs once the #cpi news release on last Tuesday. If we stay in inverse correlation to the dollar I would assume the PWHs are still our targets on the HTF. We set an equal high EQHs with the PWH from 8/28/23. Nothing is really standing in the way of of us pushing higher into them and if we see any LTF moves to the downside I’d take them with the logic that we are trading into bullish points of interest POIs . We are inside of a W-OB (not drawn) and D-OB but the is holding and setting up to push higher.
#BullishCase: We see price stalling and react to a LTF POI and bounce to take the PWHs out. I would look for any recent bullish order blocks or fair value gaps and look for price to react there. We have EQHs that is my main target for us on US30
#BearishCase: We are pushing up hard over the past 3 weeks and all the down moves, even the ones that seem to be setting us up for lower price have been bought back up. LTF moves at fresh bearish POIs from the 4H or 1H are the only sell setups I’ll probably look for and doing so with the #BullishCase in mind. We closed out Friday to the downside and we have two PDLs, SSL, and into the FVGs, and these would be my short terms downside targets.
1H chart
4h chart
D chart:
AUD/NZD ↗️ Long trade setup ↗️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽♂️
🟠 EP 1.08030
🔴 SL 1.07825
🟢 TP1 1.08220
🟢 TP2 1.08405
🟢 TP3 1.08595
We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone,
manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $.
Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us.
Follow us for more 🙋🏻♂️
Best Regard / EMA Trading .
Disclaimer:
----------------
It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market .
11/12/23#NAS #DailyReview #WeeklyOutlook
Last week was a weird week with the drop on Thursday and then price on Friday setting the Weekly High after trading into the D+VIB and near the Weekly low. We also traded through the D-OB and if it is going to continue to the upside may use this as a new POI. Dollar moved up the entire week pretty slowly but the Bonds pulled back and that caused the buy on Friday. Tuesday we'll have CPI and Wednesday we'll have PPI and Retail sales. Then Thursday we will have Unemployment Claims so that will definitely move the markets on those days for sure.
#1 Taking the PWH should be the first move and we might see price move into this 4H+FVG to move higher from there.
#2 Selling for now isn't an option at the moment but taking the sell into the +FVG on the lower time frame may be a move on the 15m chart and below.
4H chart
11/12/23 SPX Weekly Outlook#SPX #DailyReview #WeeklyOutlook:
Last week was a weird week with the drop on Thursday and then price on Friday setting the Weekly Low and high. Dollar moved up the entire week pretty slowly but the Bonds pulled back and that caused the buy on Friday. Tuesday we'll have CPI and Wednesday we'll have PPI and Retail sales. Then Thursday we will have Unemployment Claims so that will definitely move the markets on those days for sure.
#1 Taking the PWH should be the first move and we might see price move into this 4H+FVG to move higher from there.
#2 Selling for now isn't an option at the moment but taking the sell into the +FVG on the lower time frame may be a move on the 15m chart and below.
4H chart
11/12/23 US30 Weekly Outlook#US30 #DailyReview #WeeklyOutlook
Took out the PWH and traded into a W-FVG up to the mid point at 34300.6. The 1H/4H+FVG is sitting right at the W-FVG(L) at 34098.9 and if we move up this is likely where I may look for a move up. Tuesday we'll have CPI and Wednesday we'll have PPI and Retail sales. Then Thursday we will have Unemployment Claims so that will definitely move the markets on those days for sure.
#1 main goal is the PWH for an initial upside move
#2 Pushing down into the +FVG that is the downside move on the LTF but, I want to see if the move is pushing down to move up from there.
4H chart
BTC possible next move.here is my insight on BTC, as expected BTC did bounce in the zone I placed from my previous analysis.
BTC might try to go range, or try the highs because of the divergence in lower timeframe before going down to retest the support.
I placed the possible entry for long:
1. previous high
2. 50% of the previous gap.
Ofcourse this might go lower, touch the middle of the channel maybe.
Overall I'm still bullish but still expecting some pullbacks before going up again.
#BTCUSDT
This is not a financial advice, It is not 100% guarantee, and I only share base on what I see.
Still DYOR, and TYOR ^-^! just giving you a possible next scenario in my perspective. Happy trading everyone, hope you will have a profitable year.
What is ICT Power of 3?Power of 3 at work on Gold producing a 8.6RR move on 30/06/2023
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Ict power of 3 is a strategy that reveal the market maker algorithm model for price delivery.
Power of 3 simply means there are 3 things market makers algorithm do with price in ever trading days.
Those 3 things are; Accumulation, Manipulation and Distribution.
AMD:
A: Accumulation
M: Manipulation
D: Distribution
1. Accumulation: They accumulate liquidity through the delivery of a ranging market.
The purpose for delivering a ranging market is to induce both buyers and sellers to enter the market thinking that price will go in their direction.
2. Manipulation: After accumulating both buying and sell orders, they then manipulate the market to further induce another set of traders which are breakout traders.
But, that particular manipulation move is not their intended direction for the day. They only use it to gather liquidity, Which will then lead them to the next action which is to move and distribute price in their real direction for the day.
3. Distribution: After manipulating price to a particular direction different from their plan, they then distribute price to their original intended direction.
e.g to buy, they will first sell the market and then buy at the discount price level.
Example of Power of 3 on Gold
AMD:
A: Accumulation
M: Manipulation
D: Distribution
Accumulation : Price range during Asian session, accumulating liquidity on both sides of long and shorts.
Manipulation : Price broke the low of the accumulation during London session to take out sell side liquidity and then fill the previous day imbalance.
Distribution : Price move away from the FVG leading to a shift in market structure on 5m time frame, plus a short pull back, follow by a massive move to the upside during the New York session to take out buy side liquidity above.
30/10/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $36748.0
Last weeks low: $33314.9
Midpoint: $29881.7
Bitcoins crazy rally continues after smashing through the 32k resistance that has limited BTC's progress all year. After 18 months and multiple HTF attempts to reclaim the level the bulls have managed it, and by doing so a FVG has been created.
This FVG starts at 31850 and ends at 32500, which is the HTF S/R level. I've said before I'd like to see a retest of this level to see if this rally is serious in the long run or if it's more of a fakeout. That retest would also see price fall below the supporting trendline. This isn't the end of the world but it does give an indication that the bulls are running out of fuel and that the trend may be turning. For now it's a no trade zone while we're experiencing LTF chop between the midpoint and 0.75 range line.
It's also worth noting that SBF is taking the stand in court currently. This may not mean much but it only takes one comment for the market to react.
My mid-term plan for BitcoinMainly looking for price to form a new swing high first, before dropping to the 31.5k level.
Keeping an eye on the RSI oversold level - a bearish RSI divergence could signal the start of the small drop.
31.5k price level seems appropriate to place an entry as a support level and FVG is there.
From there, price could bounce and chop sideways around 38 to 39k, before moving higher to 45k price level.
ES | Oct. 23, 2023 - Weekly FVG, NWOG, and BreakerUsing the 15m bellwether chart for ES, we observe price opening higher creating a nice new week opening gap (NWOG).
At the 9:30am open, a Judas swing takes out London sell-side liquidity before rallying to take out the 8:00am swing high, closing above the high forming a bullish breaker.
Price continues to climb into the NWOG and retraces back down into the breaker and into the fair value gap (FVG) providing a clean entry for the ICT 10 - 11am Silver Bullet.
Price continues to run higher, trading above the NWOG and showing support as it ultimately trades into the consequent encroachment (CE) of the weekly FVG.
Throughout the NY PM session, price fell back through the NWOG, touching the breaker one last time before closing and consolidating at the NWOG's CE.