BTCUSDT.P | 0.618 Fib-level holds: price up three days in a rowBTCUSDT.P is (finally) up a bit. The weekly 0.618 Fib-level has held as support and now the chart shows three green daily candles in a row. That has been a while...
Price also broke the daily (downward) trendline.
That's the positive.
But on the other hand...
Price is now facing a big FVG (Fair Value Gap). Above that the 21 weekly EMA resistance is creeping closer. The weekly (downward)trendline (dotted) also has yet to be broken.
Once BTC has broken all of these, there's a bearish order block (red) waiting at 30.000ish.
So: price is up, but where not out of the woods yet.
Fvg
EURUSD M30What’s up traders. Looking at &EURUSD before London session on the 30 minute, it seems we’ve rejected higher time frame (H4) FVG and have created a MSS on the 30 minute causing another FVG. At this point I’m looking for price to come into that FVG for an entry short. Targeting NY session lows for a 1:3 RR! OANDA:EURUSD
IPDA Ranges to Cast Future Price Movement for ES Familiarizing ourselves more on IPDA Ranges to help form daily bias and to work on high time frame analysis. The first idea we ever published was actually a very similar thought but now that we have a better understanding of how to use IPDA ranges we wanted to post what we hope to be a more accurate version of what is to occur in CME_MINI:ES1! price action.
We are trading down off of a weekly order block that was traded into on July 18th; we have taken out the July 10th low of 4660.25 and we have failed to make a higher swing above 4683.50. It seems like the market has shifted to bearish conditions for the intermediate term. Using the look back and cast forward train of thinking, we have been trading higher for the 60 trading days prior to August 1st which is just 3 trading days after making our current intermediate high; meaning our cast forward should have plenty of sell side liquidity to draw to in order to clear out stops below our 20-40-60 day ranges.
It just so happens that we have a +Breaker Block that contains a Fair Value Gap/Liquidity Void inside of it. This gives us a lot of confidence in our bearish outlook as the 60 day low is quite literally is the top of our Liquidity Void and also falls into a zone for Optimal Trade Entry (OTE).
The only major bounce we should see is off of the March 13th Premium/Discount range as the Equilibrium for that range falls right in a Liquidity Void. The only thing that will push us through that with ease is some red folder news. Should be a piece of cake..
We are proud to put ourselves out there with ideas. It forces us to use logic and apply concepts and ideals that we have learned. Any questions or comments leave them below!
CME_MINI:ES1! EIGHTCAP:SPX500 CBOE:SPX TVC:SPX BLACKBULL:SPX500 SKILLING:SPX500
Weekly analyze for NQU2023Hello fellow trader.
in my analyze for this week 09/03/2023 i project a down close candle for NQU2023 if u open your weekly chart u will see the NQ reached an weekly Bearish OB and respected it, then if you move to the daily chart u will see a BISI/fvg bellow and a daily bullish OB i think the market will target that level for the upcoming days or weeks if we stay bellow the weekly Bearish OB ofc
BITCOIN IMBALANCE : March 2023 Fractal Today, we're delving into one of the essential aspects of trading - imbalances. This concept can be your trusted ally in navigating the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies. As an example, let's consider a situation from March 2023 when we experienced a drop due to an imbalance, followed by a retest and a continuation of the upward trend.
💡 What Are Imbalances? Imbalances occur when there's a significant disparity between supply and demand in the market. This can lead to rapid price movements as the market seeks equilibrium.
📉 The March 2023 Scenario: In March 2023, Bitcoin saw a significant drop, which many attributed to a market imbalance. However, what followed was a crucial moment. Instead of a continued decline, there was a retest of lower levels.
🔍 The Importance of Retests: Retests are pivotal events. When an asset retests a previous low or support level and manages to hold or bounce back, it often signals a shift in market sentiment. In this case, it marked a potential end to the imbalance-induced decline.
🚀 The Resumption of Uptrend: After the retest in March 2023, Bitcoin started to climb again. This example illustrates how imbalances can be opportunities for traders, especially when combined with a thorough understanding of market psychology.
🔮 The Future Awaits: Imbalances are just one aspect of the intricate cryptocurrency market. While they can provide valuable insights, always conduct proper research, and consider other factors before making trading decisions.
In conclusion, understanding imbalances can be your compass in the crypto world. By recognizing their presence and closely watching retests, you may identify potential turning points in the market, just as we saw in March 2023.
Stay vigilant, stay informed, and remember - in trading, imbalances can be the precursor to significant opportunities! 🌐💰
Swing Trade on SPXNow that I have 2 funded accounts, going to use one for swing trades with around 1-2 lots just cause I'd like to have 1 funded account on a higher TF level. I find Swing Trading 1 account will let me keep my higher TF bias in check or analyzed consistently without choice, and so I am starting it off with this SPX trade.
We've had Equal Highs into a previous FVG around the 50% mark of said FVG. So I am placing a short here. Wicks show the damage done to that liquidity. I'm quite sure we are going to head downward on a daily level toward the next FVG. I have a bearish bias this week as long as we stay below the weekly open.
We are also sitting in Buyside Liquidity while we had pretty good displacement from the downtrend and this displacement has brought us to retest the break in market structure.
TP1 will be at 50% of the FVG, and TP2 will be at the fully closed FVG.
If that were to play out there are some Bullish Order Blocks formed below the FVG, and that would be where I can start to look for a long. Depends on what happens over the next few days.
Looking to stay in this trade to around Friday or Monday; Really depends on the price action. If the trade hits and we react strong off that FVG I will be looking for continuation trades to the bullish first Bullish OB.
My stop is set at the Equal Highs because if we return to those double Equal Highs there is a high probability we break above it a bit. So just trying to keep losses minimal with a bit of wiggle room to those highs. Let's see.
ES Morning Shorts From Last Nights IdeaGood Afternoon everyone,
I will show in depth order entries in this post, read the updates to see.
This idea was formed last night around 10PM NY Time. I originally was hoping to trade up into the most recent Order Block (green path arrow) during the London session and end at the Terminus -4 around 8:00AM NY time. I then would've liked to see accumulations followed by a Turtle Soup or sweep of that low at the Terminus -4 during market open. I wanted to take countertrend longs in that area into the Order Block resting above the Liquidity Void, this move is denoted by the orange path arrow.
However we ended up going straight to Terminus -4 during London and we rallied above Asia accumulation into the Bearish Order Block sitting right above (green path arrow). We took shorts from this area and we were looking to target the Sellside Liquidity below to complete our MMSM (Market Maker Sell Model) on the 15M chart. We were able able to bank 2.1% off the move just by taking profits at the short term low 4507.5 and holding a few more contracts to a slightly lower price once we noticed price wasn't wanting to break the low at the Terminus -4 just yet. The Sellside Liquidity is still a viable target, we have just been choppy since right after open so taking profits is worth the time spent waiting for price.
Hopefully this was more insightful on how to form an idea for the next trading day. I will commit to making more informational posts like this. Please read the updates for a 5M look at the entries and a reference to the MMSM.
EURJPYPrice for the first time reached a very old volume imbalance since the market crash of 2008.
Inside the V.E we have a 4H rsi divergence and two 4H balanced price points where i want to see price respect them if my short bias is correct.
Price forms a typical OHLC week with a creation of a bearish flag.
All these confluences lead to a short bias.
S&P500Price builds beautifully into a premium higher time frame pd array (Daily FVG) above the 50%.
Created an ascending channel.
We also started seeing some RSI Divergence.
Expected to see high of the week form at that area. (Open, high, low, close week)
Looking for shorts throughout the whole week as i'm bullish for DXY.
EURJPY HBD + FVG Bullish structure!The market is currently bridging a divergence between two bullish trendlines. The pair is continuing its ascent towards absolute highs; at the moment, it retraced to the lower part of the divergence, where we have a Hidden Bullish Divergence (HBD) on the H1 timeframe. This zone could potentially trigger an immediate price increase towards the upper part of the divergence and eventually break the structure.
My market entry will be planned if the market, in the zone between 158.10 and 158.30, creates an upward setup with two M15 candles. In that case, I will enter the market aggressively with a very tight stop and target around 159.50, which corresponds to touching the previous swing high. Let me know your thoughts, comment, and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and have a great day.
EURUSD - 30,000 ft ViewIn this video I walk you through EURUSD from the Yearly Chart, down to the Weekly Chart. Going over levels that have been swept, levels I see as upcoming draws on liquidity, and 3 scenarios I see possibly playing out for EURUSD over the next 1-3 quarters.
As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
USDJPY Bearish structure + FVG entry!
In the USDJPY pair, we have a bearish setup evident from the structure that is forming with lower highs and lower lows. There is a price that has broken a bullish trendline and is now supported by a bearish trendline. Furthermore, there is a zone of resistance/support between 145.50-145.70, along with a confluence in the area at 145.80. It's in this latter zone that I will consider initiating a short position in the market, provided that the market gives us operational confirmations for a short trade. Specifically, I will seek an entry if the market forms two consecutive 15-minute reversal candles. Please let me know your thoughts on this. Happy trading and good luck!
21/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $29678.9
Last weeks low: $26943.6
Midpoint: $24208.4
August so far has been living up to it's history of being a red month. Last week we saw price fall ~18.45% from weekly high to low, filling in the fair value gaps from the previous HTF rally and printing a new 1W lower high for the first time this year.
Now that the FVG has been filled and a bit of volatility reintroduced into the market the next move is very important. For BTC to stand a chance in the near term I think the bulls need to reclaim the 1D 200EMA very quickly. Last weeks midpoint at 26942.4 is also approximately at the 1D 200EMA. However, If price rejects off that level when retesting it then I do think price will slowly find itself tending towards the yearly open of around 19k.
US30 - Weekly reviewHello Traders!
Hope this week was a profitable one.
US30 had a rather bearish week - we can see that after last weeks low was broken. Market gave us clear direction for sellside to be taken out.
Yellow lines are showing us previous areas of where sellside liquidity could be.
I expect the bearish momentum to continue however we must also anticipate corrections before the real move happens.
Today is Friday naturally we notice reversals to the current trend for the week. Traps and sweeps will be on the agenda ;)
i will be watching price from 34765 to 34745 for entry zone
REMEMBER this is not confirmation but merely anticipation.
Follow your rules ;)
$ES New All Time High ExpectedOur projected path for CME_MINI:ES1! to take out the January 2022 High which also happens to be the All Time High. We are using a range from a Weekly Volume Imbalance and a Weekly Bullish Order Block combined to give us a price range between $4190-$4288 to find long positions. This price range is also in a discount for the current weekly price leg; giving us more reason to look for buying opportunities here. Look for price to reach this are late August or early September. We will post a smaller time frame once we get into this area and we see a favorable trade. We will take a small swing position but we are more excited to ride the price legs to the new high through intraday trading. We have used Fibonacci Projections to give us $4854 as our first target.
Just for fun we want to call $5092 as the 2023 High of The Year. Leave your best guesses for the 2023 High below :)
Happy Trading,
BlackOakCapital
TSLA fifth wave and bullish FVG 4h timeframeI've been keeping a close watch on TSLA's recent movements, and there's something worth sharing. It seems we're in the midst of the fifth wave, if we follow Elliott Wave Theory. What's even more intriguing is that on the 4-hour chart, a bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap) could be in the works, indicationing the end of the bearish (fourth) wave.
Adding to the excitement, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is giving us some interesting signals. It's right on the edge of slipping into oversold territory, a potential sign of a turnaround. Plus, keep an eye out for the impending cross between the RSI and its RSI-based Moving Average (MA), as that could indicate a significant move coming up.
This setup has definitely caught my attention, and I'm thinking there's a trading opportunity brewing. If taking the trade I would suggest a safe stoploss below the fourth wave or a more risky one below the next bullish liquidity void on the chart. I would target the end of the fifth wave as a TP area because after that I believe we will see the first correction wave of the ABC pattern.
Of course, as traders, we know the drill – careful analysis and risk management are key before making any moves.