Unlocking the Secrets of Price Inefficiency: Dive Deep into FVG👑Price inefficiencies are also known as imbalances, gaps or voids. Healthy price action moves in a zigzag fashion, making highs and lows in line with the directional bias at any given moment. When price isn’t trending we find it consolidates, in which case highs lows are still being made. However, we may also see price move in straight lines with huge volume and momentum. When this happens, price finds itself unable to deliver price in an efficient manner. For example, in a bullish environment, price may continue to make higher highs without providing higher lows at a discount price. When price moves with this much momentum, it leaves behind imbalances.
🟠An imbalance can be identified by open space in price action, where the wicks on either side of a candle do not match each other. On the left is an example of price inefficiency, since the wick high of candle 1 does not meet the wick low of candle 3, leading to an imbalance on candle 2.
🟠This is an example of healthy price action with no imbalances. This is because all candles have wicks on either side of them. Since wicks were bodies during live price action and are bodies on lower time frames, this shows that price was delivered efficiently to buyers and sellers in this area. Whereas the example above shows an imbalance on a bullish candle, which shows that price was only available to buyers in that imbalance and therefore is not efficient.
👉For price to be efficient, it needs to be delivered to buyers and sellers. This helps us understand that in our original bullish imbalance, price has to come back and fill that imbalance using bearish price action in order to make that price available to sellers. This re-balancing could take hours, days, weeks or years, but it is our job to understand that it must happen at some point. Inline with the rest of the strategy, we can use this knowledge to pick out the specific imbalances that will be filled and how we can capitalise on this.
🟠This is an example of the correctly identified imbalance and where we expect price to react from
🟠This is an example when is our level being met, it is at this point that we use the rest of the strategy and knowledge to capitalise on the move that is about to unfold with high risk:reward entries.
🟠This is the completion of this particular market cycle, with our level being respected and price giving us a nice bullish leg.
🔴Bearish Order Flow:
🟢Bullish Order Flow:
Fvg
EUR/USD BEARISH SETUP WAITING NFPWe have a bearish setup on the Euro Dollar, with the price currently located around 1.0945, practically retesting a block that previously acted as support and is now serving as resistance. The objective will be to look for a short entry in the golden square I have highlighted, as that area aligns with the 50-61 Fibonacci levels. However, please be cautious as today we have the NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) data release. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
USD/CAD LONG & SHORT SETUPOn USD/CAD, we have a bullish setup, with the price navigating within a high volatility zone (fvg) since this morning, suggesting a potential long opportunity. Today's trading activity will be focused solely on the London session, as we have significant macroeconomic data from 14:00 to 17:00 Italian time. Currently, I am waiting for the price to close a candle on the H1 timeframe outside the fvg. Once that happens, I'll look for a confirmation on the next candle at the M15 timeframe. If it's not a pin bar or doji, that will be my entry signal. Have a great day from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
AUDNZD BUY ICT 20 PIP SCALPSince the Yen will be dropping some suspect news tonight, I'm moving my usual ICT 20 Pip Scalp (21 with the spread) from my AUDJPY pair to the AUDNZD. It already bounced from my 1 hour Breaker Block/4 hour FVG point of interest. If price doesn't clear the buy side liquidity resting above, I believe I'll have a scalp this Asian Session.
XAUUSD Buy I'm interested in a tight Order Block entry seen on the 1 minute time frame. I like how it swept out previous liquidity and started towards the upside. The stop would be safest below the Fair Value Gap that the point of interest dipped into towards the left. And I would target the equal highs above.
Gold is Ready For a Bullish WeekFOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Gold is currently bouncing off monthly and weekly FVG.
It has taken the Sellside liquidity on 4HR with a clear Buyside liquidity above to take and clear FVG to fill, both serving as draw on liquidity.
Hence, I expect gold to be bullish for the next few days till atleast those liquidity above are taking and FVG is filled.
Entry:
Entry is at the extreme of the fvg below, precisely the optimum trade entry level of the Fibonacci retracement tool.
What is your view on gold?
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My July And Long-Term Bias on Gold (Xauusd)FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Monthly View On Gold
Currently Gold is at a monthly time frame premium level, which means we can see sell moves on lower time frames anytime from now.
However, when you follow the monthly order flow and price delivery on Gold, you will discover that, prior to this current leg move to the premium draw on liquidity, gold took out sell-side liquidity first before making the move up.
And right now, price has formed a triple top liquidity draw above through the wicks of the 3 leg moves to the premium zone.
I expect price to keep going higher, at least to take out the liquidity at the triple top above.
Also, price is currently at a bullish order block, which can help to push the price higher.
Weekly Time Frame
On Weekly, price is currently at a discount level of the range and currently reacting to the discount PD array of FVG serving as a support for price. Which might hold and push price higher.
Overall, for July, I expect Gold to be bullish.
The only reason price might drop is to rebalance an imbalance below the price, which is less likely to happen this month.
But, hey, this is a Financial market where market makers determine the direction of price delivery they want.
What do you see on your chart for Gold?
The Two Reasons I Might Go Long On TeslaOn the weekly timeframe for NASDAQ:TSLA , I noticed two things immediately.
- A candle closed above the downwards trendline indicating strength in buyers
- NASDAQ:TSLA recently bounced off of a Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Given these two reasons, I am bullish on NASDAQ:TSLA as of now.
Stop Loss / Take Profits
Stop loss:
The stop loss of this trade is set at a close below the low of the candle that bounced off of the FVG. A close below the FVG would signify that the bounce was fake, and there is still more downside.
Take Profits:
All of these take profits are set at levels that were recent highs.
My plan would be to scale out half of my position at TP1, 1/2 of the remaining position at TP2, and fully out at TP3
Let me know what you think of this trade!
Short Trade = Daily Anti Cypher + Bearish Maxlev PatternShort Trade = Daily Anti Cypher + Bearish Maxlev Pattern
Price seems to be in a downtrend, creating lower low market structures.
Confluences:
1. Price below FRVP POC
2. Price below AVWAP bands
3. Large Bearish Harmonic Pattern
4. Bearish Maxlev Pattern
Target:
1. Liquidity Hunt from Maxlev Pattern
2. FVG
SP500 probably "peaked". Powe(r)ll "shocked/Shorted" on 26/7/23?After reviewing SPX smaller time frame chart and referring back to the "bigger pic". SPX probably at its top "temporarily". P/s. There are many gurus/ textbook written "documented" that E.G : "Market is unpredictable";' Never try to predict the market".. BUT but.. not just Option / Future trading instruments but many others instruments "are designed" for "Big Boy" who has "edge" over retail traders to "Speculating/ Anticipating" Next Market Moves.. E.g Warrent Buffet "Getting his stock's portfoilio "discounted" by "speculating" option..
Last but not least, As many said : No one can predict the long term trend. e.g Monthly, Weekly or even daily market ..See money "in short term e.g 5 min , hourly chart" take money first is their "Trading's motto". BUT tell you what. If we can't tell what the longer chart next moves, we will "failed more" in short term chart, it's like "zooming" into our face's skin.. Silky "SMOOTH" from far But "Lot of cracking" Much more "chaostic" "surface once zoom into 1min, 5min etc "skin face"!!! So trade lesser in higher time frame chart is "Making lesser losing trade with better risk/reward Setup!
Harmonic + OB + IMB + OTE: Failed1. I used the Previous OTE ZONE as my entry area when it has already been tapped a few times...
2. I did not plot a fib ret on the latest swing low/high for some reason despite there being a ChoCh present.
One thing to note about this though, is that the FIBRET is Reversed. Seeing the non-reversed version meant there was no OB + OTE confluence anywhere.
Maybe that's why I didn't bother with it.
Here's the thing though.. and what is probably a crucial information that I wouldn't have learned if I didn't lose this trade:
Putting fibret on reverse, meant it confluenced with the FVG.
So what I've learned:
1. OTE + FVG MIGHT JUST BE AS VIABLE AS OTE + OB.
2.Try out both reversed and non-reversed versions of fib ret. There might be a confluence you are not seeing.
ALSO, VERY IMPORTANT NOTE:
If price left your entry point, and reached target take profit (liquidity, fvg, s/r levels, etc) first...
Close the trade.
Reaching the target take profit means the market maker move is done.
It means the intention has been fulfilled, and it's time to make a new price action setup.
So the next time it reaches your target entry point, the price has a higher chance of not bouncing, because price is already moving with different intent.
CANCEL COMPLETED TRADES.
SAVE YOUR CAPITAL.
DON'T GIVE IT UP EASILY.
Harmonic + OB + IMB + OTEHarmonic + OB + IMB + OTE
Check the pic.
Main Reason for Entry is the harmonic pattern.
Waited for Choch, and there it was.
Entry point will be the Orderblocks confluence with the OTE Zone, based on Fibonacci .57-.8,
Targeting Previous Daily High.
Stop Loss at below liquidity points.
I made 2 entry points in case the first one gets SL hunted.
Overall good trade if it works.
EUR/USD Short - July 17 '23We are currently on a very high premium zone on EUR/USD. Formed lots of liquiidty with equal highs as well. Price liquidated higher forming a bearish engulfing candle on the H1 timeframe. Now price is closing the bearish engulfing candle imbalance and shifted market structure as well. Price above the NY opening price. Targeting a very nice zone of imbalance below. Lots of zones to rebalance below. Aggressive reversal trade, good luck traders!
EURNZD SHORT SETUP ABOUT FVGOn EUR/NZD we have a bullish setup this morning. a strong level has already been formed in the market, closing in less than 3 hours with a +1.5% gain. currently, the price seems to be heading towards the 1.7878 zone, where we have another bearish strong level. As always, we need to wait for the right confirmations on m15 and h1 before entering the market. risk management first and foremost. Wishing everyone a good day, greetings from Nicola, ceo of Forex48 Trading Academy.
CPI (June)CPI YoY:
Forecast: 3.1%
Previous: 4.0%
Actual: ?
With CPI on the very near horizon, here are my thoughts on what Bitcoin could do in terms of price action:
Bullish scenario - We all know that CPI tends to be a volatile event with aggressive whipsaws in price in both directions irrespective of the outcome. Therefore there is an opportunity to capitalise on the frantic LTF price action.
For the bulls A good place to enter is the local range low if we see a reclaim after a demand zone sweep. I think this is fairly likely and ideally we see price move to the downside first upon the data release as in general, THE FIRST MOVE IS THE WRONG MOVE... following this initial move to the downside a reclaim would be primed for local highs in my opinion. If there is no reclaim then unfortunately there really isn't much support on the way down as BTC would seek to fill the FVG at 27K. A reaction off this level will leave BTC in a good place to attack 32.5k, reinforced with the ETF narrative and decision coming not too far down the line.
Bearish scenario - As was suggested previously, the first move is wrong, therefore the second move is the true move and for the bears it's the opposite to the bulls. If we see price move to the upside upon data release, I would like to see a SFP of the local range highs before entering short with the range midpoint as first target, then range low, then FVG as final target. If that LTF range high holds after being broken, I would like to see a strong wick up into 32.5K resistance and a reaction off this level to the downside and supply liquidity has been taken. Any slow grind up into this level would have me concerned as to BTC printing a swing fail and not just blasting through after consolidating. If that does play out then I would re-evaluate and stay in cash while doing so.
Reminder: First move is the wrong move.
CPI is usually very volatile and therefor risky. It's easy to FOMO into random positions as a gamble, the market usually wins in those positions.
My Next Week View On GBPUSDFOREXCOM:GBPUSD
GBPUSD is still bullish.
But since we just took out external liquidity, I will wait till it retrace back inside the bullish range to rebalance an imbalance or find support at the 4H order block.
I will be buying GBPUSD at any of the discount PD arrays on 4H.
I will keep buying GBPUSD till we reach the 1.30043 level on weekly and monthly or till we have a shift in market structure on 4H.
Looking at the fact that we are currently at weekly and monthly premium, i expect price to give a some sort of retracement on 4H for smart money to accumulate more positions at any of the 4H discount arrays like FVG, Order Block etc, giving price the necessary support it needed to push up deeper into higher time frame premium arrays.
My GBPUSD Buy Setup For Next WeekCheck out this Buy setup for GBPUSD projection for next week move.
FOREXCOM:GBPUSD
Thoughts Process Behind the Setup:
Weekly Time Frame: Bullish plus FVG and bearish order block above price serving as a draw on liquidity.
Also, price already retraced to fill the FVG below price. Which means price is now ready to push higher to fill the FVG above.
Daily Frame: Price bouncing off daily bullish order block to fill an imbalance.
The only setback on daily for now is the bearish order block where price is currently at.
2HR: Price took out sellside liquidity and dropped further into the weekly FVG and then created a shift in market structure leaving a clear FVG behind.
Entry: I used my FIB to locate OTE around the FVG which is where i will be placing my limit order for entry.
What do you see on your own chart?