Crypto Analysis - Bitcoin Monthly Price Action FVGWith so much indecision in the market the sentiment has been forked with Bulls and Bears ... the highest since 2003 according to bloomberg's analysis on the S&P targets for analysts High vs Low targets -
This general sentiment goes thru out markets that just follow an ebb and flow till something happens in that particular sector. A good example of this is Nasdaq bullish movement due to mostly AI boosting tech into new highs. Or the banking industry affecting the Dow.
With that said , Crypto looms with much uncertainty as nations adopt digital currency formed by legislations in their respective localities.
My personal standpoint is from a thesis that price action moves to liquidity and inefficiency. Crypto bull runs left much inefficiency and liquidity sits at key areas on the Monthly Timeframe:
The Annual Range midpoint for 2022 is noted at 31850
Orderblocks from June 2021 Mean threshold for Open to Close - 36168
Range midpoint 35061
A Fair Value Gap is formed for the month of May 2022
Quad levels for this area:
High - 37590
upper quad - June 2021 OB mean Threshold
Consequent Encroachement - Near June Close 2021
Lower Quad - 33370
Low, IOFED = ’22 Annual Range Midpoint
COINBASE:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BINANCE:BTCUSD
Fvg
03/07/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $31291.8
Last weeks low: $29420.6
Midpoint: $30356.2
The week starting on Monday 19th of June was the latest rally for bitcoin, a strong move up leaving some large FVG inefficiencies left behind that price will look to fill in the future. The upside capped off at just under 31.5k, a high that the bulls couldn't top last week while chopping sideways in a much tighter range than previous, and consolidating under the all important 32-32.5k region where a lot of traders will look to do business.
This week for me will go one of two ways in my opinion:
A slow and steady drop from current price down into those FVG areas, the main one being 27.2-27.75k.
OR
We wick up above recent highs, tag liquidity in the supply zone around 32.5k before a sharp sell off back into those FVG zones before anymore progress can be made above this range.
FOMC minutes event on Wednesday may provide the volatility required for this liquidity grabbing wick.
WINLEV + PULLBACK OTE OB Pattern: Failed.WELP.
SL HIT.
It got so close to TP point yesterday though.
Sad.
Anyway.
Reason trade failed?
1. Strong resistance
2. Too ambitious tp point?
3. I should have closed the trade once I saw price made a lower high and flipped to the downside.
4. Maybe I should have made the SL or even entry point a lot lower than the FVG? Current price just bounced from the FVG and it looks like a good re-entry point. I'll see what I can do.
Pullback OTE + OB Trade StrategyPullback OTE + OB Trade Strategy
Pump + Pullback to OTE + Orderblock Strategy.
Tapped FVG below + Weak High = ripe for more pump. Just has to gather more gas at the orderblock to fuel the breakout.
I just can't think of any good or new thing to say about this.
I've done this several times.
You can follow this or not, it depends on you. Just put a stoploss and proper position sizing so you're good.
Gold W Buy Idea 5/20/23Gold is still at all time highs at the moment, so I am still not sure if it will go higher and break the previous month high (PMH)/the monthly high from 3/1/22 again OR break and retest this weekly (W) zone that it is currently playing in and go bearish again. I do know that there is a M liquidity zone + a W B (buy) FVG (fair value gap) right under where price is currently at.
For the STRATers, The W has formed a 2-1-2d-Rev.
So what I would like to see price do is break down to the W B FVG and bounce back bullish to hit the PMH(s).
ICT Power of 3 Strategy on GoldPower of 3 at work on Gold producing a 8.6RR move on 30/06/2023
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
AMD:
A: Accumulation
M: Manipulation
D: Distribution
Accumulation : Price range during Asian session, accumulating liquidity on both sides of long and shorts.
Manipulation : Price broke the low of the accumulation during London session to take out sell side liquidity and then fill the previous day imbalance.
Distribution : Price move away from the FVG leading to a shift in market structure on 5m time frame, plus a short pull back, follow by a massive move to the upside during the New York session to take out buy side liquidity above.
Fair Value Gap Strategy (FVG): GBPUSD 7.32x Reward TradeCheck out this 7.32RR trade I took today on GBPUSD.
OANDA:GBPUSD
Trade Process:
Daily is bullish with FVG serving as draw on liquidity.
1HR: Took out Sellside liquidity left with BuySide liquidity to take out.
15M: London Session open took out 15M sellside liquidity with high probability of taking out Buyside liquidity.
Entry: I used my fib to locate OTE at the FVG which is where i placed my buy limit.
Price retraced to pick my order and fly high to take out the buyide liquidity and the daily FVG.
CROUSDT Long Trade Idea (1H + 5m)1H:
- Price rallys downwards with momentum
- Price creates equal lows which is sell side liquidity
- This gets cleared as price moves lower
- Price also clears a major low, identifying a break of structure lower
5m:
- Price moves upwards with momentum, forming displacement
- Price clears multiple highs in this bullish move up
- Price forms a fair value gap (FVG) which is at a discount and this is where we go long
TP set to resting Buy Side Liquidity on 1H - 0.06040
SL set to the lowest low of the move upwards - 0.05604
EURCAD SHORT TO 1.38000EURCAD have been on the rise since August 2022, and now approaching the highs of 2022, what are my expectations?
We can see that above the 2022 highs, there is a weekly imbalance I labelled, so price might get to that highs before going bearish, remember that the first leg of the M formation, formed on December, so this will be our second leg. So we expect this move to flow to 1.38000
Why shorting?
There on the monthly timeframe, there is a high resistance zone we are currently on and we expect continuation of trend to the downside.
Please do share, and give a follow to support.
BTCUSDT LIQUIDITY STRUCTUREBTCUSDT price has been experiencing upward movement toward the previous SELL IMBALANCE & LIQUIDITY VOID created by previous sharp SELL OFF , so it is wise to consider SELL around these levels
Also price is reaching the BUY SIDE LIQUIDITY above previous EQUAL HIGHS at 32500
there are still strong UNMITIGATED SUPPLY LEVELS on the way and it is smart to consider SELL POSITION to the target of UNMITIGATED DEMANDS and FVG's around 24k$ to 20k$
If market want to become BULLISH it must clear the SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY first , which this HAS NOT HAPPENED yet , so I'm waiting for SELL ENTRY above previous EQUAL HIGHS to the target of DEMANDS from previous upward move that they pull the price down like GRAVIGY
SMC analysis on GMT/USDT (Bearish!!!)Hello guys ,Today i found a great opportunity on GMT with SMC.
the price is trying to breakout the trend line.(wait for the pullback)
open your position when price breaks the last LL(new CHOCH) and pullback to the trend line.(open your sell position at 0.2200)
the SL should be above the local green channel.(SL at 0.2225 is a good choice)
we have a FVG between 0.2075 and 0.2085, you can close the position at FVG.
it's just an idea , always do your research and analysis.
don't forget to follow and boost this idea :) thank you.
ES/NQ Weekly Analisys Weekly Analysis
June 20 - June 23, 2023
During the previous week, NQ entered the zone of the daily Order Block (OB) and came close to testing the Mean threshold of that OB. It also entered the Monthly BB-.
Therefore, this week, I anticipate a retracement to the 4-hour OB level between 15188.00 and 15094. For an ideal scenario, I would like to see a bounce from the range of 15186.75 to 15142.50, targeting the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB at 15534.00. It's also worth monitoring the Critical Level of the Monthly Break Block at 15722.75, although it may not be reached this week.
To recap the structure: Consolidation, followed by Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal.
Hence, my retracement level before the Order Block is set at 15186.75. Inside that zone, there are 15-minute BB+, as well as 15-minute FVG and 1-hour FVG. If the retracement fails to hold at the OB level, we should anticipate a reversal phase where it breaks 15066 and drops further, ideally reaching the Daily SIBI level between 14963 and 14866.75.
The same analysis applies to ES: ES also entered the zone of the Daily OB (4615.00-4486.25), which aligns with the Monthly BB-. Remembering the structure: Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal.
For ES, my retracement level is set at 4431.75 to 4423.25. The 4-hour OB is located at 4419 to 4404.50, with 15-minute FVG and BB+ within this range as well. If the 4-hour OB fails to hold, we can expect a Reversal Phase, leading to a test of the SSL at 4393.75. The Daily SIBI is found at 4381.75 to 4369.50.
However, a bounce from the Retracement Area should fill the Weekly SIBI at 4506.25. Additionally, there is a Daily Breakaway Gap to consider. Key levels to watch are 4524.00 and 4531.25, which correspond to the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB.
Ethereum climbs past $1700 but can it continueThe H4 imbalance (white shaded box) was filled and the structure of ETH on the 4-hour remained bearish. The OBV saw a bounce but did not trend upward.
The Fibonacci retracement levels plotted for the move down to $1630 last week showed that the $1716 and $1740 are important resistances.
Entry: $1716
Stop-loss: $1753 (a move above $1740 and $1750 will signal bullish intent and a bullish MSB)
Take-profit: $1597 (the 23.6% extension level, although a drop below $1600 could eventually see $1500 retested in the coming weeks)
R:R- 3.45
USDJPY Short IdeaWe are Currently in Premium, testing a Bearish Orderblock in the form of PDA. Inside this Orderblock, we have a new orderblock from which price moved rapidly away from as well as it took out previous high, which validates the OB. Price Manipulated the Previous Highs with a long wick, making this a Smart Money Reversal. We have a lot of FVG and EQL (SSL) to fill in. As another confirmation, we expect a retracement down as we have an overextended W, which should attract the market to move downwards.
If the price should reach there, I'm looking to scale off some profits at around 110.077.
Two possible Scenarios,
One entry (main setup), it's a lower entry so more likely to get triggered.
One entry at Equilibrium (CE), which has way better Risk to Reward but is less likely to get triggered. (however, LTF created lots of imbalance inside the new OB, which could definitely get filled)
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Confirmations:
- In Premium
- Orderblock INSIDE bigger Orderblock
- Manipulation of the High
- FVG & SSL Targets
- W formation Retracement
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My ONLY Concern for me is that we have a lot of News today which could impact price to move the other direction.
This may fail, but at least I'm not afraid to show my risk to reward box BEFORE it happens, unlike 95% of everyone on this platform.
If it fails, I still have a strong belief that these FVG and SSL level will get filled soon, and I'll still keep them as targets for future trades.
S&P500 to Sellside Liquidity
S&P500 DAILY TIMEFRAME / ("ESM2023" Futures Contract)
____________________________________________________
ORDERFLOW & TARGETING:
The Orderflow in S&P is Bearish. Every Bearish Orderblock and Fair Value Gap have been holding price lower. I'm looking for this Orderflow to continue being Bearish until the Sellside Liquidity gets mitigated...
S&P500 has now engineered Sellside Liquidity below current price, inducing Retail traders to Buy at this price point. Therefore, many orders are resting below these equal lows, so the market should seek this Liquidity.
TREASURY BONDS:
The Bond-Market is looking Bullish, which would indicate Lower prices in the S&P - due to their Inverse Correlation against each other.
The Bonds are aiming for their Equal Highs Buyside Liquidity:
POTENTIAL INVALIDATION OF THE IDEA:
- Although I'm Bearish... From where price is at right now - I NEED to see the current Bullish Orderblock's Equilibrium 50% traded THROUGH to the Downside with a Daily Candle closure. (The Bullish Orderblock is that Bearish candle I marked up that price is currently testing) . So right now, price is above the 50% price point, and therefore Orderflow is still Bullish short-term. Only when the first Daily Candle CLOSES Below the 50% of the orderblock is when I will be looking to Sell down into Sellside Liquidity. (The 50% of the Orderblock is at 3940. I need to see price Close Below that) .
- Market Structure is currently Bearish. However, if the Protected High (the High that caused the Lower Low - Annotated "PH" on the chart) gets traded Above (at 4057) , that would become a Bullish Market Stucture Break, and I would no longer be Bearish, but I would rather aim for Buyside Liquidity at 4245 (annotated "SMS" in the chart) .
But as long as we Remain Below the Protected High, I still hold my Bearish Bias down into the Sellside Liquidity.
So in Summary of the Invalidations...:
I need to see the Bullish orderblock's 50% get traded Down through, and only then I will start looking for selling into Sellside Liquidity.
As long as price remains below the Protected High - I'm Bearish.
#TechnicalScience ;)