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Bitcoin - Repeating History: 100k Next Target?Bitcoin is continuing to move with clean structure, driven by demand imbalances and breakout continuation setups. After the initial breakout from the mid-April range, price moved in a highly technical fashion, consolidating, breaking out, forming a fair value gap, and then retesting it before continuation. That exact structure looks like it's playing out again. Bitcoin just broke out of another multi-day consolidation and left behind a fresh 4h imbalance, suggesting the potential for another leg higher if it respects that zone on a pullback. Consolidation Structure The prior breakout came from a tight range just below $86,000. BTC spent several days compressing in that area, then broke out impulsively, creating a 4h FVG and retesting it cleanly. That retest held perfectly and launched a rally of nearly $10,000. The current setup is structurally the same. BTC spent 8 days consolidating under $95,000, repeatedly testing the resistance without breaking it. It finally closed decisively above, leaving behind another fair value gap. The sequence is familiar, sideways accumulation, breakout, FVG left behind, and now a setup for retest. Bullish/Bearish Scenarios The bullish scenario is centered on a retest of the new 4h FVG, located between roughly $94,200 and $95,000. If price pulls back into that imbalance and buyers defend it, the setup for continuation is clean. Based on recent behavior, a successful retest here could easily carry BTC toward the $100,000 level. If price instead breaks back below $94,000 and falls into the previous consolidation range, that invalidates the breakout structure. In that case, Bitcoin could either enter another range-bound phase or trap longs with a deviation. That would shift the focus to reassessing structure instead of chasing continuation. Price Target and Expectations The short-term upside target is $100,000. That level is both a psychological milestone and a likely liquidity magnet. From a structural perspective, it aligns with the last breakout leg, which moved over $9,000 after a similar retest setup. If buyers defend the FVG, there is not much in the way until $100,000. The momentum behind the breakout supports that expectation. The move was impulsive, clear, and not showing signs of exhaustion. As long as structure holds, price is in a strong position to continue toward that key round number level. Current Stance This setup is not a breakout chase, it’s a retest setup. The breakout already happened, and the market left behind a fair value gap that now needs to be tested. If price pulls into the $94K to $95K zone and reacts strongly, that would confirm demand. That’s the moment to step in, with invalidation placed below the FVG and former resistance. Until then, it's about staying patient and letting price come to the key level. The structure is clear, the plan is defined, and there’s no need to force a trade in the middle of the range. Conclusion Bitcoin looks like it’s repeating the exact same structure we saw earlier this month. Range, breakout, FVG, retest, that sequence played out before and led to a major leg higher. It’s playing out again now with nearly identical timing and behavior. If the 4h imbalance holds, the next phase of this rally likely targets $100,000. The structure is clean, the behavior is technical, and there’s no reason to overcomplicate it. Let price do its thing, wait for the retest, and if the reaction is strong, follow the same playbook that’s already worked once this month. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Long
by TehThomas
82
EURUSD - CONSOLIDATION TO MANIPULATION?OANDA:EURUSD is currently going through consolidation on daily time frame, i expect price to manipulate a little by taking out the relatively equal lows below to tap into the weekly and daily fair value gap below around 1.12000 price level as illustrated in the chart attached. Overall, my bias on EURUSD still remain bullish until the weekly time frame shift market structure to bearish. Monthly bullish, weekly bullish, now I will wait for daily to correct and turn bullish back for me to take a trade.
Long
by Elijahenoch7
Gold next possible move Is down"Hello traders, let's analyze the current market conditions. Based on our technical analysis, we've identified a potential sell zone around $3260. The price has reached a key resistance level, and indicators suggest a possible reversal. Key factors contributing to this sell zone include: - Resistance at $3260 - Overbought conditions on the RSI - Bearish divergence on the MACD If the price fails to break above $3260-$3265, it may signal a downturn, targeting $3245-$3240 as the next support level. Let's monitor the price action closely and adjust our strategies accordingly." Comments your thoughts traders what you thinks about this setup
TVC:GOLDShort
by Jordan-Fx6
Bitcoin - Gearing Up for a Break Above Key ResistanceBitcoin has been grinding just below a key resistance zone, marked clearly around the 95,400–95,800 region. This area has seen multiple rejections in the past, making it a strong level where sellers are actively defending. Despite this, the broader trend structure remains intact to the upside, with price respecting a higher-timeframe ascending trendline and forming higher lows. Consolidation Structure Current price action shows a range developing just under resistance, with signs of weakening bullish momentum in the short term. We’ve had multiple wicks into the highs, but no convincing close above. On the flip side, there’s a visible support zone around 93,000–93,800, which has previously been used to absorb liquidity and fuel moves higher. This zone is confluenced by the ascending trendline from previous swing lows, offering a clear area for a liquidity sweep. Bullish/Bearish Scenarios In the short term, a pullback into the green support block looks likely. This would serve two purposes: sweep out late longs and provide fresh liquidity for a stronger bullish push. A dip into this level that still respects the trendline would maintain bullish structure despite violating the local higher low. If price holds this zone and begins forming higher lows again, we could see an impulsive move into and possibly through the resistance. A clean break and close above 95,800 would likely open the door for much higher prices, as the level has capped upside multiple times and a breakout would likely trigger stop orders and breakout buying. Failure to hold the green zone and the trendline, however, would break the short-term bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper retracement, possibly invalidating the breakout thesis temporarily. Price Target and Expectations If the resistance breaks, the path toward 105,000 remains in play. That target aligns with the macro breakout structure and continuation from the trendline, supported by higher timeframe bullish sentiment. What do do now Watching for a pullback into 93,000–93,800 to see if liquidity is swept and support holds. No interest in chasing price into resistance. The key is to see how price reacts at the next low and then again at 95,800. If the pullback unfolds and buyers step in with momentum, that would provide the cleanest long opportunity into new highs. Conclusion The market looks poised for a short-term dip to rebalance liquidity before mounting a serious attempt to break a long-standing resistance zone. As long as the trendline is respected, the bullish structure is intact, and any sweep of local lows may offer a strong risk-reward entry for continuation toward 105k. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
by TehThomas
46
Bitcoin - Major Daily Imbalance and Possible Move to $105k?Bitcoin already broke out of the bearish structure a while back, and honestly, that was the first major shift everyone should have been paying attention to. Ever since that breakout, we have been building bullish structure on the higher timeframes, higher highs, higher lows, and overall strong momentum to the upside. This gave the bulls a clear advantage, and so far, nothing has really changed that bigger picture. Consolidation Structure Now, looking at the current price action, something important stands out. During the last big push up, Bitcoin left behind a massive daily imbalance zone. It is way too big to just leave open like that. Markets hate inefficiencies, especially ones of that size, and more often than not, these kinds of imbalance zones get filled at some point. Because of that, I am fully expecting price to come down, revisit this imbalance area, and fill it properly before making any serious move higher. It is a natural thing for the market to do, clean up inefficiencies, grab liquidity, and then continue the main trend if the structure holds. Bullish/Bearish Scenarios The most important thing to watch here is how Bitcoin reacts once it gets into the imbalance zone. If we dip into it and then start seeing bullish reactions, I will be looking for confirmation that the bullish structure is still intact. Specifically, if we can avoid a daily candle close below the bottom of that imbalance, the bullish case remains valid. However, if we get a full daily close below the imbalance, that would be a strong warning sign. That would tell me that the bulls lost control and we could be looking at deeper downside or a shift back into bearish conditions. But as long as that does not happen, I am still looking for the market to respect the structure. A dip into the imbalance, hold, and then continuation higher, that is the ideal scenario. Price Target and Expectations If we get the reaction I am looking for after filling the imbalance, I think Bitcoin has a real shot at rallying towards $105,000. That level lines up perfectly with a strong resistance area on the chart, and it would make sense for price to reach for it if the momentum stays bullish. Now, reaching $105,000 will not be easy. That is going to be a major test for the market. There will likely be heavy selling pressure around there. But if the trend stays strong and we keep putting in bullish structures even as we approach that resistance, it is definitely possible to break through eventually. Current Stance Right now, I am being patient. I am not chasing the current move higher. I am waiting for price to come back down into the imbalance zone. If we get a proper retest and hold, that is where I will be looking for my entries, targeting the move towards $105,000. No daily close below the imbalance zone = bullish continuation plan still in play, Daily close below = reassess everything and possibly step aside. Conclusion To sum it up, Bitcoin already shifted bullish a while ago with the structure break. Now it is just about cleaning up the inefficiencies it left behind during the move up. If the market does what it usually does, fill the imbalance and maintain bullish structure, then the setup towards $105,000 is very much alive. Patience is key here. Let the market come to us. No need to force anything. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Long
by TehThomas
46
GBP/USD - Watch out for a possible rejection!The British pound is currently moving towards the upside, showing a gradual but steady climb. However, it is approaching a significant resistance area that could pose a challenge to further gains. ------------------------------- Double top This resistance zone was previously a strong support level before the market formed a double top pattern and subsequently broke below it. As is often the case in technical analysis, this former support has now flipped into resistance, making it a key area where price could face strong selling pressure and potential rejection. ------------------------------- 1h FVG Adding to the confluence, this resistance zone aligns closely with a 1h Fair Value Gap (FVG). FVGs often attract price back into them before a reaction occurs, making this area even more significant for a potential reversal. ------------------------------- Golden Pocket Just below the FVG lies the "Golden Pocket", the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent drawdown. The Golden Pocket is one of the most closely watched Fibonacci levels by traders and is known for its strong influence on price action. Its proximity to the current structure increases the likelihood of a notable reaction, as many market participants will be watching this area closely for signs of rejection. ------------------------------- Conclusion Overall, the combination of previous support-turned-resistance, the 1-hour FVG, and the Golden Pocket retracement forms a high-probability zone where the British pound could encounter heavy resistance and a potential downside move. ------------------------------- Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Short
by Youriverse
29
Stromm | SOLANA Key Zones for Next MovesWe've seen a very solid reaction here — similar to Bitcoin, but still with its own flavor. The Previous Monthly Low was swept and then reclaimed, which is always a strong bullish signal. On top of that, the Monthly Open was reclaimed and successfully retested, flipping market structure back to bullish. No doubt: the trend right now leans upward. The big question is: where do we go from here? When you look left on the chart, you see two massive candles: One day, +30% straight up, Followed by -22% the very next day. Pure chaos. Now, price is pushing back into that zone — and we need to watch how it reacts inside those previous candles. For targets: The Weekly Fair Value Gap near the Previous Monthly High is a major zone to watch. After that, there’s the 2h Fair Value Gap around the Yearly Open — the next big magnet for price. And it’s worth noting: Compared to Ethereum, Solana’s Yearly Open is way closer and much more realistically within reach. Another subtle hint that SOL is showing way better relative strength.
Long
by stromm
XRP - Bulls Preparing to Push Towards $2.50XRP has maintained a bullish tone after completing a significant gap fill, currently consolidating around $2.18. The previous impulsive move left behind an unmitigated imbalance below, suggesting that the market could be preparing for a controlled retracement. The overall structure remains bullish, but a corrective dip into key demand zones would align with healthy price development before the next leg higher. Imbalance Structure and Retest Expectation During the rally from the sub-$2.00 range, XRP formed a sharp move that created an inefficiency between approximately $2.05 and $2.12. This gap between buyers and sellers indicates that liquidity was left behind, often acting as a magnet for price. Currently, XRP appears to be positioning itself to retest this imbalance, refilling orders and potentially gathering the momentum needed for a stronger continuation. I expect price to sweep into this zone, likely finding responsive buyers as it rebalances the inefficiency and revisits previous structural points of interest. Reaction Zone and Bullish Confirmation The primary area of interest lies firmly within the $2.05 to $2.12 range. A reaction from this zone, confirmed by strong bullish price action such as a higher low formation or a bullish engulfing candle, would validate the setup for further upside. Following the retracement and bounce, the immediate objective will be a clean break above the $2.30 resistance. This level has acted as a cap on recent price action and represents a key liquidity threshold. A decisive move through this resistance would open the path toward higher targets, confirming the strength of the new impulsive phase. Upside Target Projection My upside target for this trade idea is located at $2.47. This level coincides with a previous high and clusters near the upper boundary of visible supply zones on the higher timeframes. Reaching this target would represent a continuation of the broader bullish structure while also completing a logical expansion leg relative to the recent price range. Risk Management and Invalidation The bullish bias remains valid as long as XRP holds above the lower boundary of the imbalance zone, around $2.05. A sustained breakdown below this level, particularly if accompanied by strong bearish momentum, would invalidate the idea, signaling that a deeper retracement is unfolding. Until such invalidation occurs, the approach remains to monitor the retracement into the key demand zone and assess the strength of the subsequent reaction for potential long entries. Conclusion XRP is showing strong structural signs of bullish continuation but may first revisit the unfilled imbalance below. A clean reaction from this zone, followed by a break above $2.30, would likely set the stage for a rally into the $2.47 target. Patience is key in awaiting the retest and confirming bullish intent before execution. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Long
by TehThomas
50
Bitcoin - Trap the Breakouts, Ride the PullbackBitcoin has been trading in a clearly impulsive structure, showing bullish intent after reclaiming previous consolidation zones. Recently, price action has driven into a significant area of interest, approaching the highs set on the 4-hour timeframe. These highs have not yet been swept, making them a likely target for liquidity grabs. Given the market's recent strength, it's reasonable to anticipate that market makers and larger participants may aim to run these stops to fuel a deeper retracement or set the stage for further upside. The higher timeframes continue to favor bullish structure overall, with price making higher highs and higher lows. However, within this bullish context, the market has left behind notable inefficiencies, particularly an untapped imbalance zone just below current price levels. These inefficiencies typically act as magnets, especially when preceded by strong directional moves, making them key zones of interest for potential pullbacks. Consolidation Structure and Key Zones After bottoming out near the $77,000 to $78,000 area in early April, Bitcoin has steadily climbed, forming intermediate accumulation structures and minor consolidations before each breakout leg. During the recent surge, price left behind a unified imbalance zone roughly between $89,000 and $91,000, which remains untouched. This area is highly relevant, as price has not yet returned to rebalance it. Just below that sits a previous strong support zone in the $82,000 to $84,000 region, which provided a solid base for the current leg higher. An additional lower imbalance zone lies slightly above $80,000, offering a potential secondary demand area in case the primary zone fails. Liquidity and Imbalance Zone The current expectation is for Bitcoin to complete a sweep of the 4H swing high, tapping into the resting buy stops above. These types of moves often serve as traps for breakout buyers, allowing institutions to offload positions into demand and prepare for a retracement. Once the liquidity is taken, the next logical move would be a return toward the unfilled imbalance zone highlighted on the chart. This zone not only represents technical inefficiency, but also aligns with the concept of fair value. Price often returns to these areas to find willing buyers, rebalance supply-demand discrepancies, and establish a base before continuing in the prevailing direction. Given the strength of the previous rally, a healthy retracement into this zone would still maintain overall bullish market structure. Bullish Scenario If the price sweeps the high and retraces into the $89,000 to $91,000 zone, we want to see signs of absorption and bullish structure forming within this region. Confirmation may come in the form of bullish order blocks, internal BOS (break of structure), or a clear rejection wick indicating buyers are stepping in. Should these conditions be met, this zone provides a compelling long opportunity, with upside targets set toward previous highs and potential extension levels above $96,000. Bearish Contingency Plan In the event that the unified imbalance fails to hold, attention shifts to the next key zones. The first is the minor imbalance closer to $85,000, which could offer a short-term bounce. Failing that, the broader support zone at $83,000 highlighted on the chart, becomes a more significant area to watch. This zone previously acted as the springboard for the current rally and may provide the structural support necessary for a larger bullish continuation. Conclusion This setup reflects a classic smart money concept, liquidity engineering followed by a return to inefficiency. The trade idea rests on the premise that markets rarely move in a straight line and often seek to rebalance themselves after aggressive trends. By allowing price to sweep the highs, fill the imbalance, and re-establish support, we can position ourselves with the trend in a favorable risk-reward context. The bias remains bullish, but execution depends on price reaction at key levels and confirmation of intent. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Long
by TehThomas
67
What is ICT FVG ? – ICT Fair Value Gap Explained Step by Step !ICT FVG knowns as Fair Value Gap, is a three-candle formation having an un-retraced area between the high and low of 1st and 3rd candlestick. A fair value gap is indicated by an imbalance and it acts as a level of support and resistance in the price chart. This blog post will teach you all about the ICT FVG from their formation to identification and their use in trading. You can jump to the section you are most interested in from below or can continue reading the whole article for better understanding. Table of Contents What is ICT FVG (Fair Value Gap)? How to Identify an ICT Fair Value Gap? Types of ICT FVG (I) Bullish Fair Value Gap (II) Bearish Fair Value Gap ICT FVG Trading Strategy Best Time Frame for ICT FVG Identification Best Pair for ICT FVG Trading Final Thoughts What is ICT FVG (Fair Value Gap)? ICT fair value gap is a three-candle structure indicating a gap between the high and low of 1st and 3rd candlestick. The gap between three candles is created because price does not retrace in that area and leaves it open. You can see the example of ICT FVG in the picture below : ICT FVG acts as a magnet for price and price retrace back to the fair value gap to balance the price delivery. After retracing to the FVG price then reverses and continues its trend . How to Identify an ICT Fair Value Gap ? To identify an ICT FVG, you need to look for a large candlestick with most body range. After identifying the large candlestick, mark the high of candlestick prior to the large candle and low of the subsequent candlestick . There will be a visible gap between the high and low of the two candlesticks which indicate the ICT fair value gap . Types of ICT FVG On the basis of price move the ICT FVG has two types which are explained below : (I) Bullish Fair Value Gap A bullish fair value gap in ICT terms appears during an uptrend with a three-candle pattern. It happens when the middle candle has a large body , leaving a gap between the high of the first candle and the low of the third candle . In an uptrend , a fair value gap can serve as strong support, with the price often retracing to fill the gap before moving higher . You can see the example of bullish fair value gap in the picture below : (II) Bearish Fair Value Gap A bearish fair value gap appears in a downtrend within a three-candle pattern. It forms when the middle candle has a large body, creating a gap between the low of the first candle and the high of the third candle . In bearish trend a fair value gap can act as a good resistance and mostly price tends to fill this gap before moving lower . You can see the example of bearish fair value gap in the picture below . ICT FVG Trading Strategy To trade using an ICT fair value gap, you need to go through below steps. Step 1 – Determine Market Trend: First of all we need to identify the market trend of any asset whether it is bullish or bearish. You can use ICT Daily Bias to anticipate the direction of price move. In bullish trend price makes higher highs and higher lows, while in bearish trend price makes lower lows and lower highs Step 2 – Identify Premium and Discount Zone: You would be looking for the premium fair value gap in bearish trend, while in bullish trend you would be looking for discount FVG. Step 3 – Identify Large Candle:Once you have determined the trend, next step is to find a large candle with large body & small wicks. If market is in bullish trend, we look for strong bullish candle with most body range while in bearish trend we look for large bearish candle with most body range. Step 4 – Study Preceding & Proceeding Candles: Once you have identified one large candle, now study the one candle before it & the one candle after it. Both of these candles should have such a structure that their bodies should not overlap the body of middle candle thus confirming a fair value gap between the wicks of first & third candle. Step 4 – Mark Fair Value Gap: In bullish trend the gap between the high of first candle and the low of third candle. While in bearish trend the gap between the low of first candle and the high of third candle will be marked as your fair value gap. Step 6 – Execute the Trade: If the price is in bullish trend, we will wait for price to retrace and test the discount fair value gap to balance the move. When price tests the discount fair value gap you can execute a buy trade with other technical confirmations like rejection or structure shift in lower time frame. In the picture given below you can see price is in bullish trend making higher highs and higher lows. It retraces back to test the fair value gaps and rejects from the fair value gaps, eventually going higher. In a bearish trend, you would wait for the price to retrace up and test the premium fair value gap to balance the bearish price delivery. When the price visits this gap, it can offer sell opportunities, especially when combined with additional confirmations like rejection or a shift in market structure. In the image below, the market is in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. It repeatedly tests bearish fair value gaps and rejects from these levels, leading to further price declines. Best Time Frame for ICT FVG Identification ICT FVG can serve different purpose, like it can be used as a tool to find the Daily Bias using higher timeframe like 1-Day. But if you are using the fair value gap as a PD Array to find trade entry then you would be looking for a fair value gap in lower timeframes like 15-Minutes or lower than that. Best Pair for ICT FVG Trading Initially the ICT introduced the fair value gap using the index trading like Nasdaq and S&P-500 and it yielded best results in that market. After that he demonstrated some examples of forex pairs using the FVG and it was equally good for that market too. So, now a days ICT FVG serve as a key tool for traders in every market. Final Thoughts While trading using a fair value gap we should keep in mind that every fair value gap in the market is not tradeable , to trade using fair value gap, we should use it in conjugation with other strategies like demand & supply or support & resistance . At these levels fair value gaps can act as a more reliable tool to take a trade. You can also check this article how traders use fair value gap to open the right trade. Plus to mitigate your risks, you should always trade with stop loss in place as no strategy is foolproof in trading.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by InnerCircleAnalysis
Trading EURUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 22/04/2025We've executed 4 trades so far this week using the Judas Swing Strategy and in this write up, we're breaking down exactly how each one played out. We didn't get any trading opportunities on Monday but Tuesday gave us textbook setups on both FX:EURUSD and OANDA:AUDUSD , and if you’ve been following this series, you know the Judas Swing Strategy thrives where liquidity lies and manipulation gives way to opportunity. Tuesday’s price action on FX:EURUSD opened with familiar signs: ranging structure and liquidity building on both sides. By 09:05 EST, price made the typical fakeout a sharp move to the downside that swept the lows and trapped breakout sellers. This gave us confirmation to look for the real move, the reversal. Price broke structure to the upside, creating a Fair Value Gap. As expected, price retraced into that imbalance, and we executed the buy. Entry: 1.14677 SL: 1.14559 TP: 1.14913 Take profit was cleanly hit with minimal drawdown. No stress. No second-guessing OANDA:AUDUSD printed a similar setup. The fake move to the downside swept liquidity below an earlier low and shifted structure to the upside. We entered buy once price returned to fill the Fair Value Gap The trade nearly hit TP but reversed just shy of it, eventually stopping us out. Entry: 0.63868 SL: 0.63770 TP: 0.64064 It stung a little, but here's where our data-driven edge comes in. We follow a set-and-forget execution model because our backtesting shows that this approach works more in our favor than not. Situations like this will happen. Sometimes price dances around your TP before flipping. It’s part of trading The next day was a solid one using the Judas Swing strategy, this time across both OANDA:AUDUSD and $NZDUSD. Let’s walk through how the setups unfolded on Wednesday and why both trades played out almost identically in terms of narrative and structure. The session kicked off with a consolidation forming, setting up a clean range to be targeted. Liquidity had built up nicely above the highs and lows of the pre-market structure. Classic. As expected, once our session started, price punched higher, sweeping the buy-side liquidity above the early session range. This was our Judas move a strategic fakeout to trigger breakout longs and inject liquidity. But the key here is what came next. Price immediately stalled after the sweep and printed a clean break of structure to the downside. That shift was our clue that the buy-side move was done and the real selloff was likely on deck for OANDA:AUDUSD and $NZDUSD. Price pulled back into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed during displacement, giving us a clean entry setup: Entry: 0.64130 SL: 0.64360 TP: 0.63669 As soon as we entered, the trade moved with conviction minimal drawdown and a smooth ride into target but the OANDA:NZDUSD couldn't hit TP and the trade is still running
by CleoFinance
Ethereum Hits Critical Resistance — Is a Drop to $1400 Next?Introduction Ethereum has been in a sustained downtrend over the past weeks, struggling to gain any real bullish traction. After a sharp decline last Sunday, the market remains under pressure, and although we’ve seen short-term attempts to recover, the broader trend still points downward. Technical indicators and price structure suggest this may not be over, with both Fibonacci levels and momentum oscillators hinting at further downside potential. Resistance from the FVG and Fibonacci Last Sunday, Ethereum dropped over 10% in a single move, forming a large 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) in the process. This gap signaled a strong imbalance between buyers and sellers, with sellers clearly in control. Earlier this week, ETH managed to retrace up to the 50% level of that FVG but faced immediate rejection, highlighting the strength of the resistance. Currently, price is once again moving into the FVG zone and has reached the golden pocket Fibonacci level between $1650 and $1664. This area often acts as a key pivot for price direction. If bulls manage to break through, the next logical target would be the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $1724, potentially completing the fill of the FVG. Stochastic RSI weakening on the daily timeframe While the short-term price action shows some bullish effort, the daily Stochastic RSI tells a different story. It has now almost entered the overbought zone, suggesting that Ethereum’s current upward move may be running out of steam. This indicator often precedes a shift in momentum, and if history repeats itself, we could soon see bears stepping back in. With ETH still unable to break recent highs, the setup favors a continuation of the downtrend. If selling pressure resumes, we could be looking at a move down to the $1400 level, or potentially even lower. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Short
by Youriverse
73
Gold - Why a drop to 3250 could be the perfect buy!Gold has been in a strong and sustained uptrend, showing impressive momentum with minimal pullbacks along the way. At the moment, Gold is forming a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate potential short-term downside price action. If we see a retracement from current levels, I’ll be watching closely for a long opportunity. A break below this rising wedge would suggest possible short-term downside movement. This would actually be healthy for the overall trend, as small pullbacks are a natural and necessary part of a strong uptrend. It helps shake out weak hands, reset indicators, and build stronger support for the next leg higher. Why a drop to around 3250? If the wedge breaks, there’s an imbalance zone (4h FVG) sitting just below the current price level that has yet to be filled. These imbalance zones are created when price moves sharply in one direction, leaving gaps in the market structure. These areas often act as magnets, drawing price back to fill them before the trend resumes. This particular imbalance zone lines up perfectly with the golden pocket Fibonacci retracement, adding further significance to the level as a strong area of support for the bulls. When technical confluences align like this, they tend to become high-probability reaction zones. It’s also worth noting that this was the last major high that was broken before Gold made its most recent move upward. That makes this level even more likely to be defended by buyers. Bulls who missed the initial breakout will be watching this level closely for entries. What are we watching for? If Gold fails to hold the structure of the rising wedge, it opens the door for a sharper pullback towards the 3250 zone. This level aligns with multiple key confluences: the support zone, the 4h FVG, and the golden pocket. All of these factors together make it a prime level to look for bullish setups. Conclusion Gold remains in a strong uptrend but is starting to show early signs of a potential short-term pullback if it loses the rising wedge structure. Should that happen, the primary target for downside would be the 3250 level. This is where I’ll be looking for long opportunities, as it aligns with major support, the 4h imbalance zone, and the golden pocket retracement. While this pullback would be short-term in nature, the broader trend remains bullish. As long as key levels hold and market structure stays intact, the bigger picture favors further upside. A healthy retracement here could set the stage for a more sustainable and explosive next leg up. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Youriverse
38
Bitcoin – Testing Major Resistance: 95k next target?Bitcoin is currently trading inside a significant resistance zone between $88,000 and $89,000. This area has acted as a strong supply zone in the past, evidenced by multiple rejections that led to notable sell-offs. The recent upward momentum that brought price back into this area was backed by a strong rally off the April lows, pushing through local structure and recovering critical levels. However, despite the strength of this move, price is now approaching a decision point where bulls need to prove continuation capacity or risk triggering another corrective leg. Consolidation Structure The current structure reflects a potential accumulation base forming below resistance, marked by a series of higher lows and a compression of volatility. This typically precedes a breakout, though it also heightens the risk of a sharp rejection should buyers fail to sustain pressure. The local trend remains bullish on the 4H timeframe, but the lack of follow-through above resistance so far suggests hesitation. Price is essentially coiling beneath a ceiling, building pressure for a breakout or breakdown move in the coming sessions. Bullish Scenario If Bitcoin is able to cleanly break above the $89,000 resistance level, the key confirmation will be a successful retest of this zone from above. This area, once flipped into support, would offer a strong launchpad for continuation toward the next key target at $95,000. This target aligns with the measured move projection from the recent range and also represents a psychological milestone that may attract momentum buyers. A confirmed breakout and retest would signal strength from bulls and invalidate the prior resistance structure, transitioning it into new support. Bearish Scenario Alternatively, if price fails to break above the resistance zone and prints another rejection, I expect a retracement to follow. The first major area of interest on the downside is the imbalance zone between approximately $84,000 and $85,500. This level also aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, and given the inefficiency left behind from the recent rally, it serves as a logical short-term support area. A bounce here would not be surprising, particularly on the first touch. However, should price break below and close beneath this zone, it would indicate weakness and open the door for a deeper corrective move. The next major downside target in that case would be the golden pocket between $79,500 and $80,500. This zone carries strong confluence: it’s formed by the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement, a previously unfilled price void (PVG), and the base of the recent rally. Price reaching this area would likely attract interest from both buyers looking for re-entry and shorts looking to cover. A reaction from this level could set the stage for a medium-term bounce or even a new accumulation phase. Current Stance At the moment, my stance is neutral-to-bullish while price remains within the resistance zone. I'm closely monitoring for a clean breakout and retest, which would trigger a long setup targeting the $95K area. Until that breakout occurs, caution is warranted due to the risk of rejection and retracement. If price breaks down from the current level, I will shift my focus to lower support zones, particularly the imbalance region and the golden pocket, for potential long opportunities or further confirmation of bearish momentum. Conclusion Bitcoin is at a pivotal point technically. The structure and momentum suggest the possibility of a bullish continuation, but confirmation through breakout and retest is essential. A failure to break and hold above resistance will likely initiate a retracement, with the imbalance zone serving as the first major test. If that zone fails, a trip toward the golden pocket at $80K becomes increasingly probable. This is a reactive zone-to-zone environment, and both breakout and breakdown scenarios offer actionable setups based on confirmation. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
by TehThomas
73
Bitcoin - Who Will Take Control: Bulls or Bears?Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a prolonged phase of sideways movement, trading within a clearly defined consolidation range. After a sharp move to the upside earlier this month, price has stalled and started to range between the resistance zone near $86,000 and support around $82,000. This type of price action typically suggests indecision in the market, where neither buyers nor sellers are in full control. The candles within this range are relatively choppy, with many wicks on both sides, further reinforcing the idea that this is a low-conviction environment. It reflects a battle between opposing market participants, and historically, such consolidations often precede strong directional moves. Until this range is broken, price is likely to continue moving sideways with potential for false breakouts and low-probability trade setups. The Consolidation Range The current consolidation is outlined with clear visual zones. The upper boundary acts as resistance and is highlighted in red, while the lower boundary, acting as support, is marked in green. The range itself is filled in blue, representing the broader area of indecision and price balance. This consolidation is not minor—it has held for several days with multiple rejections from both the resistance and support levels. The more time price spends within a range like this, the more significant the breakout is likely to be. Liquidity builds up at the highs and lows of these ranges, and eventually one side will be taken out, leading to an expansion move. Bullish Breakout Scenario If Bitcoin manages to break and close decisively above the resistance zone, this would signal a potential shift in market sentiment toward the upside. A breakout above this level is likely to trigger stop-loss orders from short-sellers and attract breakout traders entering long positions. The chart suggests that if this bullish breakout occurs, price will likely target the liquidity resting above recent swing highs, which are marked by the black horizontal lines. These levels represent areas where traders may have placed their stop orders, making them attractive targets for a price sweep. Following this, Bitcoin could enter a new trend phase, potentially setting up a continuation of the larger bullish structure that preceded the consolidation. It is important, however, to wait for confirmation. A clean breakout followed by a retest or strong follow-through volume would provide greater confidence in a bullish continuation. Entering prematurely could result in being caught in a false breakout, especially in a ranging market like this. Bearish Breakdown Scenario Alternatively, if price breaks below the support zone with conviction, this would be a clear bearish signal. A move below the lower boundary of the range would imply that the buyers have been exhausted and that sellers have regained control. In this scenario, the expectation is that price will seek out the inefficiencies and untested price action below, particularly the yellow zone marked on the chart. This area likely represents a previous gap or imbalance—zones where price moved rapidly in the past and did not spend much time. Such zones often act as magnets for price once a breakdown occurs, as the market seeks to fill in that inefficiency. This bearish move could lead to a significant drop, potentially targeting levels as low as the upper $70,000s or even lower, depending on how strong the selling pressure becomes. Much like the bullish scenario, it's critical to watch for confirmation. A candle close below support with strong volume would be an ideal trigger for this bearish thesis. No-Trade Zone and Strategy Until Bitcoin breaks out of this range in either direction, there are no clear high-probability trades. Entering within the range is inherently risky due to the lack of momentum and high chance of reversals. Whipsawing price action can easily trigger stop-losses and create frustration for traders trying to anticipate moves before confirmation. The most prudent approach in this situation is patience. Let the market show its hand. Once a breakout occurs, whether to the upside or downside, the path forward becomes more defined and trade setups with favorable risk-to-reward ratios will emerge. For now, this is a textbook no-trade zone—ideal for observing and planning, not for forcing entries. Conclusion Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture. The ongoing consolidation is a precursor to a larger move, and while the direction is not yet confirmed, the zones of interest are clearly mapped out. A breakout above resistance will suggest a bullish continuation, targeting liquidity above recent highs. A breakdown below support will imply a bearish move toward the inefficiencies and untested price areas below. In markets like this, discipline is key. The goal is to avoid getting chopped up in the range and instead position yourself on the right side once momentum returns. The next breakout will likely set the tone for the coming days or even weeks—so patience now could lead to greater reward later. __________________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
by TehThomas
92
Trading AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 15/04/2025Tuesday's price action on FX:AUDUSD , we got a textbook Judas Swing play and for those still getting used to spotting these setups in real-time, let’s break this one down and talk through what happened and more importantly, why it happened. Going into the session open, we had a relatively tight consolidation, with the 00:00 - 08:30est range acting as a container for liquidity. Price had built up liquidity at the high and low of the zone. Whichever side gets swept first will determine our directional bias for the session Just after the session began, we saw price aggressively push up taking out the buy side liquidity resting above those early highs. This is what is called the "Judas move", a false breakout meant to trap breakout buyers and entice liquidity into the market. This move is not random. It’s designed to induce traders into the wrong side of the market before the real direction reveals itself As soon as that liquidity grab was complete, we noticed price begin to stall and form a shift in market structure. This is critical. Once you see a break of structure to the downside, followed by a lower high into a FVG, that’s your confirmation that the real move, the sell-off is in play. We then saw clean displacement to the downside, confirming the manipulation phase was over Now we wait for a retracement into the Fair Value Gap (FVG). We'll only look to execute a trade once a candle enters the FVG and closes. After a few minutes of waiting, price finally retraced into the FVG, giving us the green light to execute the trade. Entry: 0.63749 Stop loss: 0.63849 Take profit: 0.63549 This FX:AUDUSD trade gave us a smooth ride with minimal drawdown. Right after entry price moved swiftly into profit. Although there was a brief retrace back to our entry point, it quickly corrected, and we were back in the green. With just a 1% risk, the trade delivered a solid 2% return all within 1 hour and 20 minutes This setup is an excellent example of why you don’t want to chase early session breakouts blindly. The Judas Swing strategy teaches us to look for the trap, wait for confirmation, and then trade in alignment with the real intention behind price. Beginners often get caught up in the initial move, thinking it’s the real trend. But if you can slow down, understand the time of day, the draw on liquidity, and the reaction around key highs/lows, you’ll start to see how often price manipulates before delivering.
by CleoFinance
What Is a Balanced Price Range, and How Can You Use ItWhat Is a Balanced Price Range, and How Can You Use It in Trading? Balanced Price Ranges (BPRs) offer traders insight into areas where market forces temporarily balance. Understanding how BPRs form and how to use them can help traders identify key zones of interest on the chart. This article explores the details of BPRs, their applications in trading, and how combining them with other tools can refine your market analysis. What Is a Balanced Price Range (BPR)? A Balanced Price Range (BPR) is an Inner Circle Trader (ICT) concept used to pinpoint areas on a price chart where market activity reflects a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. These zones, often identified through overlapping Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), highlight price levels where buying and selling pressures have offset each other, creating a balance. Here’s how it works in a bullish scenario: a rapid price move downward leaves a bearish Fair Value Gap—a price range the market skips over due to strong selling momentum. If the price rises with equal intensity shortly, creating a bullish Fair Value Gap in the opposite direction, the overlapping region between these gaps becomes the BPR. This overlap represents a zone of temporary balance, where the market has effectively “corrected” the earlier imbalance. BPR zones are not random. They often form in areas of high market interest—perhaps near key support or resistance levels, or after significant news events that cause sharp price movements. Traders look at these ranges because they frequently act as reference points for future price reactions. The boundaries of an ICT BPR—its high and low—serve as critical levels. These edges often function as dynamic support and resistance, helping traders gauge potential turning points. Furthermore, BPRs can appear across various timeframes, from minute-by-minute to weekly charts. How Does a Balanced Price Range Form? Now that we know the idea of the ICT Balanced Price Range, let’s look at how it forms step by step. 1. An Initial Price Imbalance A BPR begins with a strong price movement in one direction—either up or down. For example, in an overall bearish scenario, buyers initially drive the price up rapidly and leave behind a bullish FVG. This gap reflects an area where the market didn’t fully engage, often skipping over price levels due to overwhelming demand. 2. A Counter-Move Creates an Opposing Gap After the initial move, the market can shift in the opposite direction with equal momentum. In our example, sellers step in, pushing the price downward. This creates a bearish FVG that partially overlaps with the earlier bullish FVG. These rapid shifts often occur around key events, such as news releases or liquidity grabs, which ignite temporary market imbalances. 3. Overlapping Fair Value Gaps Define the Range The overlapping portion of the bullish and bearish FVGs is what forms the BPR. This zone represents the price levels where buying and selling forces are temporarily balanced, neutralising the earlier imbalances. 4. Market Consolidation and Testing Once the BPR is established, the price often consolidates near this range. This zone acts as a magnet for future price action because it’s seen as an area of high market interest, where traders may take note of previous balance. In the example given, a test may precede a bearish reaction. Combining BPRs With Other ICT Concepts Balanced Price Ranges in the ICT methodology become even more powerful when combined with other related concepts. By layering multiple tools, traders can refine their analysis and pinpoint high-probability areas for market activity. Here’s how BPRs work with key ICT concepts: Fair Value Gaps Since BPRs are defined by overlapping fair value gaps, understanding how to read these gaps adds depth to BPR analysis. FVGs outside the BPR can act as supplementary zones of interest. Order Blocks Traders often spot BPRs forming near significant order blocks. When these zones overlap, they highlight areas where institutional activity may have left a footprint, increasing their importance for analysis. Liquidity Pools BPRs often align with liquidity zones where stop orders are clustered. Price may gravitate toward these areas before reacting, offering traders insight into potential price reversals or continuations. Market Structure Shifts BPRs can reinforce insights gained from market structure shifts. For example, a BPR forming after a break in structure might signal consolidation before the next major move. Higher Timeframe Confluence When a BPR aligns with key levels on higher timeframes, it can provide added confidence in the zone’s relevance for price reactions. How to Use a Balanced Price Range The Balanced Price Range can provide traders with valuable insights into price behaviour, acting as a reference point for analysing potential market movements. By understanding how these zones function, traders often use them to refine their strategies and enhance their market analysis. Identifying High-Interest Zones As BPRs highlight areas where the market found an equilibrium between buyers and sellers, traders typically monitor how the price reacts when revisiting a BPR. For example, if the price approaches the upper or lower boundary of a BPR, it may indicate a potential turning point or a continuation, depending on the market context. Support and Resistance Dynamics One common approach is to view BPRs as dynamic support or resistance zones. When the price tests the range, traders often anticipate a reaction. For instance, a rejection from a BPR in a bearish trend may suggest continued downward momentum, while a breach might signal weakening selling pressure. Contextualising Larger Market Structures BPRs don’t exist in isolation; they often align with broader market structures. Traders may use them in combination with tools like liquidity zones or order blocks to build a more complete market picture. For instance, if a BPR forms near a major resistance level on a higher timeframe, this confluence could strengthen its importance as a reference point. Adjusting for Timeframe and Strategy The relevance of a BPR often depends on the timeframe being analysed. Day traders might focus on intraday BPRs to find potential trading opportunities, while swing traders could look for these zones on higher timeframes, considering them significant levels for long-term moves. Either trader can use lower and higher timeframe BPRs to inform their analysis and entries. Managing Risk Around BPRs Traders may incorporate BPRs into their risk management plans, such as by using the boundaries of the range to set stop-loss or take-profit levels. A breach of these levels can indicate a shift in market sentiment, helping traders refine their analysis. Risks and Considerations When Using BPRs While BPRs can be a useful tool for analysing price behaviour, they aren’t without limitations. Traders need to approach BPRs with a clear understanding of their potential pitfalls. Here are some key considerations: - Not Predictive: BPRs don’t guarantee future price movement. While they highlight zones of interest, traders must combine them with broader market analysis to avoid over-reliance. - Subjectivity: Identifying BPRs can sometimes be subjective. What one trader sees as a balanced range might not align with another’s interpretation, especially on different timeframes. - Timeframe Sensitivity: A BPR on a lower timeframe may lose significance in the broader market context. Conversely, higher timeframe BPRs may lag behind fast-moving markets. - False Breakouts: Price can move beyond a BPR briefly before reversing, creating potential traps for traders relying solely on breakout strategies. - Market Context Matters: BPRs are analysed alongside market conditions like volatility, news events, or broader trends. Ignoring these factors can reduce their reliability. The Bottom Line Understanding Balanced Price Ranges can help traders interpret key market zones and improve their analysis. By combining BPRs with other tools and strategies, traders gain deeper insights into price movements. FAQ What Is the ICT Price Range? The ICT price range refers to specific price levels or zones highlighted in the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology. These ranges often represent areas of interest in the market, such as liquidity pools, fair value gaps, or balanced price ranges. Traders use ICT price ranges to analyse price movement, identify potential reaction points, and refine their trading strategies. What Is the Meaning of a Balanced Price? Balanced price describes a market state where buying and selling pressures are in equilibrium. It typically forms in areas where overlapping fair value gaps exist, reflecting zones where previous imbalances have corrected. These areas can act as key levels for future price reactions. What Is an Optimal Trade Entry in a Balanced Price Range? Optimal trade entry in a balanced price range refers to identifying high-probability entry points within or near a BPR. Traders often look for price reactions at the range’s boundaries, combining BPR analysis with other ICT tools, such as order blocks or liquidity zones, to refine their approach. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1