USD Index DXY - Potential MMBM Monthly Timeframe: (check the linked image)
- The market traded aggressively away from a Bullish Orderblock.
- Last Month, DXY created a Bullish 3- Bar Fractal (swing low) which lead to an explosively bullish move. We can easily see the next monthly candle being bullish as well.
- We have now disrespected a very strong Bearish PD Array: A Bearish Breaker. It showed no willingness of respecting it, which means that buyers are in control.
- 3 months ago, we traded through a bearish candle. This bearish candle works as its own structural Orderblock, and we shouldn't see price drop below this level (like the two green boxes below). If it does- we might see a reversal lower.
Daily Timeframe:
- We have a potential ICT Market Maker Buy Model playing out.
- We are in a massive uptrend, and we can easily see a continuation of it.
- We are getting closer to the Weekly FVG's High.
- At 101.000 (institutional number), we have very clean Equal Highs. Price can easily draw up to this level, as a massive liquidity pool resides here. Expecting a manipulation through this level, potentially up to the Volume Imbalance.
- At 101.640, we also have a daily Volume Imbalance Vaccum Block. This is a huge gap in price which likes to get traded to, and filled. Sometimes you'll see a reversal at this level as well.
Caution:
- This is just my view on the USD. Price may not play out as expected. This can especially be due to the current war situation in Ukraine. Price can create Black Swan events and massive volatility that can ruin the setup on a Daily TF.
- From 97.720 to 98.000 we have a volume imbalance below current price. DXY can easily retrace lower to fill this level. If this happens- it can respect this volume imbalance and go higher from there, or create a lower retracement.
Fvg
The pullback hasn't ended, keep an eye on this!Firstly, I want to say I'm sorry because I didn't announce I was going to take a break from posting this week. But I'm back. Bitcoin broke the $46.2k nPoC (check previous Weekly Review post) right after I published my thoughts, and ww rallied until $48k. After that, we started to see a pullback to around $44k, which got bought up.
The main thing I see on this week's price action is that price failed to set a higher high, and, to be even more bearish, it flipped the support level at $47k (0.618 fib, weekly PoC and anchored VWAP) to resistance. But this is not enough. We also see that, on the volume profile, that most of the volume traded is at the top, meaning that a consolidation is what whales are looking for.
My targets stay the same (again, check the last Weekly Review): mainly the FVG sitting at $43k. I do expect some crabbing around these prices at the start of the week, to be honest. Lastly, I want to thank you again for reading my posts. Have a good trading!
Hypos SPX 4-4-22Hypos on SPX:
1. Primarily looking to see if price pushes into the D-FVG to fill the imbalance and continue to push down. As it stands there hasn't been much movement and price is hanging just below the FVG(L) by about 10 points. Also we've traded in a about a 25 point range and that's about it all night with the opening sitting at about 50%.
2. Second hypo, we drop down into the daily wick and hold to buy in that wick range around 4525.05. If this happens then I could see us rejecting here to move up further into the FVG or continue to higher to take out the last high.
THE ICT BREAKER!hello, so you want a model that will get you profits? LOOK NO FURTHER!!!!
this is the ICT BREAKER, this mode (and other confluences) is ALL, YOU, NEED.
if you confluence the BREAKER with...
- BMS
- OTE
- PREM /DISC RANGE
- INTERNAL LIQUIDITY
WHAT. MORE. COULD. YOU. WANT.
what is labelled, as the purple box, THAT IS YOUR BREAKER BLOCK, YOU TRADE IN HERE WITH THE RIGHT FRAMEWORK AND CONFLUENCES.
ICT IMBALANCE / FVG / LIQUIDITY VOIDLiquidity void, Fair Value Gap, Imbalance... These terms are interchangeable.
As a Charter Member ill tell you what I've shown here, is a basic depiction, as I got asked a question on what is an imbalance?
An imbalance, is an imbalance in price, where price has NOT efficiently delivered orders in the market, price will like to revisit these areas, of imbalance, as seen here. The diagram on the left depicts the ideal model of what an imbalance is, the chart on the right is an in time example.
if you notice one of these getting filled, at a place where you are bearish/bullish... well.... there is your trade!
Crypto has had the most bullish breakout this yearBitcoin. Crypto bull market. I think I've said these words pretty much lately, especially since many different approaches (especially on-chain, where I've shown my most biased analysis) have been making confluence on the same bullish direction. And the time has come. We have finally broken the structure by going closing the daily, as well as the weekly, above $46k.
What did we break exactly?
Let's talk a bit more about the chart itself. We broke out from the all-time high anchored VWAP and the resistance that we formed at $45-46k (which also was a fair value gap - or FVG). My opinion on the mid term implies a continuation of the current trend until around $49-50k (basically trap every retail trader), and then retest the level we just went above. After this correction, we should have the enough space to set a higher high (at around $57k, where the FVG makes confluence with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement).
So, is a bull market like late 2020 - early 2021 coming?
However, I'm still not convinced about a new all-time high. I think that Bitcoin is maturing: in previous cycles (2018 and 2014) we retraced about 80%. Not even comparable to the retrace we've had since the current record price: only around 50%.
And why am I saying this? Exactly for that reason. We might start a long consolidation period, make sure we don't go below the last summer lows, $28k. On the other side, this bear market (I don't even know if I should call it a bear market) could extend until $20k, but, with the same arguments I can say that this is really unlikely.
Even if we reach those prices, we'd have a generational opportunity to buy.
Lastly, what I'm doing right now is take some profits from the longs that I've opened previously. I'll wait for that $49-50k target to open some shorts (short term), and just ride the move on spot. I really hope that you liked the post, as it took me a while to write it. Have a good week!
Notes of $MNQ_F 3/22 #ICT for reference 9.6:1 R/R tradeHere is now my annotated chart of $MNQ_F from 3/22 with some extra descriptions. Can only share the 15min chart here, so can' go into a lower timeframe like the 5min one on public TV ideas.
There is a 60min FVG right before market open from Overnight session 3:00AM -> 5:00AM, the grey box.
The little red triangle on the 5:00AM candle is an ITH (also “King High”, “Key High”), which is violated to the upside from the 9:00 candle (marked that with a 💡).
That is our Imbalance! = Bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS) Now we can start to dig deeper into lower time frames.
This info from here is all in the ICT videos Episode 1-5 and 12/13.
The 5min Orderblock in purple is from the lower timeframe (I cannot show this here), that is not visible in the 15min. But you could have also chosen the last red down-close candle as an entry signal on the 15min chart.
The usage of these Fib levels is shown in ICT Episode 12 for reference.
The big grey zone is the 60min FVG from above, everything else mentioned above is also there.
Red Triangle
Red 💡 for marking the Bullish MSS
Orderblock purple zone
Additonal 5min FVG, not needed
As we know from the videos, Orderblocks are the real trigger.
I don’t think I need to write more about the entry trigger, price drops into the 5min Orderblock and 🧨 explodes up.
Now, remember the Market Structure Levels from the 15min chart, they are also shown here. ICT talks about a -1.5 as profit level as ideal (Watch Episode 12! :-) ) and now watch where price trades into. 👀
Entry is right at the top of the 5min Orderblock (Watch Episode 12!), Stop gets right below the Orderblock. Profit targets up to the -1.5 level.
9.61:1 Risk/Reward -> 278 handles long, even on $MNQ this would be $556/contract, with 29 handles risk. Crazy and precise!
ICT Short EURUSD OTE Entry (just mute, I cannot disable laptop mic)
Another example of an NY trade today, Shorted the higher time frame bias, Have marked the chart up to show my logic, When you determine what you are looking for to fit criteria pre market and pre trade IE ( A rules based system) its much easier to sit back and wait for the boxes to tick themselves, I dont force trades and I don't make the market give me something, I just ride the wave.
This is another FTMO DEMO ACCOUNT pass for me while still testing this Strat, in just this trade. The market is making these moves everyday, Deciphering the chart and looking for evidence is all I do, It doesn't need to be more complicated, I truly believe that, I know my chart looks dirt but I've written all over it for this video and I'm also colour blind so trust me, In my eyes its beautiful (lol) -
Side note, If your studying ICT or OTE etc etc hit my inbox to join a discord with me, I'm not selling anything I'm not looking for anything other than to exchange ideas with like minded people as trading is a lonely game, What ever stage of your journey you are at. Hit me up lets start a conversation, Especially if your a London / NY session trader..
NAS is about to go down - Kevin Hart voiceGood Morning Traders, so as you can see in my chart right now we are experiencing a bear market shift. Im expecting price currently to come in and fill that gap that it left when it shifted back to the downside. This 1 hour trade analysis also matches my Weekly analysis that ive been studying for this entire month where Nas is heading towards a bearish sentiment. Happy Presidents Day btw and shoutout to ICT Micheal himself.
Bitcoin idea for long and shortHello everyone,
This is a continuation of the idea I posted yesterday which is linked as a related idea.
Yesterday I posted relevant FVG and NPOC levels to look at for now. It seems the FVG level was hit precisely, only for price to drop back to the channel which is now acting as support as was to be expected in case of a rejection at FVG level.
I have indicated two zones of interest I am looking at for possible longs or shorts at this point.
Whether or not I will decide to long or short is dependent upon whether or not support will hold, and I will wait for confirmation (retest).
At this point, I think support is more likely to break than to hold. But you never know. Just talking in probabilities.
If you get value from this idea, please leave a like.
Much success, and as always: just an idea - not financial advice.
Trade Idea for Feb 8 - AUDUSD & GBPCADAussie dollar has tap into H1 and has rejected aggressively and also creating another FVG which can be used as an entry going short. GBPCAD has rejected from a FVG and I'm looking to take an OTE going longs on the pair after yesterday's trendline liquidity was cleared.
BTC: relevant nPOC and FVG levels to look at for nowBTC is showing bullish momentum to the upside, right now.
Given that FVG and nPOC levels are relatively powerful predictors of price movements, I highlighted some relevant zones to look out for in current times.
The FVG levels are the thicker lines, the nPOC levels are the thin lines.
Regarding upside potential:
Relevant nPOC level to the upside is located around $46200. I find it especially relevant given the yet untouched FVG level located closely below it, at $45480.
I think both FVG as well as (n)POC levels are best interpreted as zones, so I take it as a 45500 - 46200 zone. I look at that zone as a place of relevance with regards to upside potential.
However, in order to get there, BTC would need to break some psychological support barriers (round numbers) which should be taken into account.
Regarding downside potential:
A relevant nPOC is located at 37950. This is located closely to an FVG level (which has been touched multiple times). So regarding downside potential I would look at 38000 - 37900 first.
However, in order to get there, BTC would need to break some psychological support barriers (round numbers) which should be taken into account.
I have also highlighted a horizontal channel (the dashed lines) which we could spend some time consolidating in before either breaking out to the up- or downside.
As always, just an idea and not financial advice.
EDUCATIONAL POST (FVG - Fair Value Gap)EDUCATIONAL POST: (FVG - Fair value Gap) 📊📈
Let's take some time to explain a trading term I often use in my TA. 🤓
FVG - or Fair Value Gap (= inefficiency, void...)
👉 What they mean by that is an area of the chart where the price moved past in just 1 single candle, meaning the candle before + after haven't touched this area.
👉 This is how such a gap is formed.
👉 This gap frequently works as a magnet for the future price, indicating a CONTINUATION (bullish —> bounce, bearish —> drop)
NOTE: this is the strongest on the first touch it does, after that it's power deminishes and price often moves back through it.
EXAMPLE: (bullish) price moves up fast and creates a FVG. This area will act as a bounce area for when the price drops back down to this, before continuing higher. I've added a theoretical + $BTC example. (scroll back to see it on the chart)
Hope you learned something. 👌
Oli 🤙
Risky S&P500 long on nowDon't try this at home! LMAO! This only fits some of my criteria (it's against a higher tf trend). With it being late in the day this is a very low-quality setup but going to throw it on the demo account and see what happens. learning experience here.