Fx-zone
Forecast for 2017Current traffic growth will only be a correction in the strong downward trend. The differences in the activities of central banks will continue to support the dollar, which should lead eurodollar to new lows. The aim at the moment seems to be the level of 1.0214 (peak of July 2012) and 1.00 A further target is at the level of 0.94.
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (12.12-16.12)Last week was the end of the correction from 1.0504, which reached just above an important resistance zone, located on levels 1,0847-64. Accordingly, the maximum target correction was completed and returned to the market declines. Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, which again may lead to greater volatility. However, in the longer term still applies downward trend.
The first trading hours should elapse under the dictation of the demand side, which will be willing to lead to a correction decline from the level of 1.0873. Increases should be limited in nature and should not exceed the levels 1,0600-31. Perhaps here we can see a trend side pending the meeting of the Federal Reserve. Then, after the expected correction we should go back in the direction of the last holes 1,0504-31, which break open the way toward last year's lows 1.0490 and 1,0456-60. Signal to the stronger downward movement, may be the information contained in the minutes of the FOMC.
Note: if the market will be strongly disappointed with the result of the meeting of the Federal Reserve, once again we see strong growth and perhaps a return to recent highs.
Analysis and forecasts for the pair EUR / USD at 25/11/16During Friday's session, we should see a continuation of today's gains. No readings in the first part of the day and the limited activity of investors from the US, should support demand. In this variant, after crossing the 1.0567 level, the demand should direct towards 1.0585 (maximum of Thursday). Another goal remains the level of 1.06, while the maximum goal for the moment, seem to be the last peaks located at levels 1,0649-57.
Whereas afternoon readings in the US, you should designate alternative variant, which assumes further declines. In this case, the correction again is completed. Supply should be directed toward 1,0492-1,0518 The maximum target for the supply seems to be support 1,0456-60. On the last of the levels I would expect activation of the demand side. Certainly last year's lows, should be a strong barrier to the supply side.
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (14.11-18.11)In my opinion, the beginning of the week should elapse for the local correction towards resistance level at 1.09 and 1.0938. Another fairly distant goal can be the level of 1.10. Higher price levels should be a good opportunity to open short positions. After adjusting I expect further declines toward this year's lows (1.0709)
It should be emphasized that the dollar should remain strong against the euro, which will be affected by the action of central banks. The ECB still faces the problem of low inflation, which should lead to changes in the QE program. The next meeting is scheduled for December. By contrast, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates at last year's meeting. Chances are valued by the market at present 81%.
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 10/13/16After the recent strong decline should expect a correction. The downward movement already has almost 200 pips.
Resistance level of 1.1050 and 1.1079.
It is worth emphasizing that when it comes to breaking the Wednesday minimum (1.1004), the supply should be directed toward support 1,0970-80 and only with this price level, we should expect a corrective movement. After completing the adjustment expect further declines.
The embodiment of motion correction is denied, in the case of overcoming support at 1.0970. The next target for the supply of support is at 1.0952 and 1.0909.
In the longer term, the dollar should continue to gain, due to expectations of another rate hike in the US. Further declines should be interrupted local adjustments.
EUR/USD long termThe situation on the Eurodollar market has not changed significantly, despite the recent volatility. All the time stuck in extended trading sideways around the level of 1.12, which is around 61.8% fibo increases the level of 0.8231 - 1.6038. However, there is thing I would especially like to draw attention. Looking at the graph interval of one month, we note that Eurodollar located in a triangle formation. With this in mind, and that this formation was preceded by strong declines, it seems that it should come to the bottom of issue. However, the upper limit is in the vicinity of 1,14-1,15, which is not deleted completely on the demand side. In addition, we can conclude that the last three months were characterized by the smallest range of fluctuation in the history of this currency pair. which may suggest that we are in the last phase. Breaking bottom may be preceded by increases in the level around 1.1427. Then breaking through the lower supply constraints, will open the way towards 1,0730-1,08. (Trend line growth led to the level of 0.8231).
The above outline of the situation as regards the very long term. However, it has now consider what draws a Eurodollar future, in the context of the next months. This technical arrangement would be in line with the fundamental situation, which implies a further weakening of the euro against the dollar. (Further increases in US interest rates and a possible expansion of the program QE by the ECB).
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 09/21/16The shape of the candle daily may suggest further declines, but whereas the Wednesday meeting of the FOMC, it seems more probable expectation and thus - lateral trend between 1,1149-1,1180. More likely to see declines in the evening and the movement of such could take place after the meeting of the Fed. Therefore, you should reckon with a fracture of the recent lows 1.1149 and 1,1123-30 (hole of 31 August). Further props levels are 1.1076 (23.6% fib level falls 1,11617-1,0909) and 1.1045 (minimum of 5 August). Very strong support levels zone extends between 1,0950-76.
In my opinion, a variant of further declines, and supply advantage for me is the preferred option. Negating this option will transfer pigeons Fed, which will lead to strong growth towards 1.1285 and 1.1346.
On Wednesday evening, after the meeting of the Federal Reserve, should expect strong fluctuations on the Eurodollar market.
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 07/09/16Today there was to break above the downtrend line, drawn from the top level of 1.1617. From a technical point of view, the demand side gained an advantage, but I do not think that further increases could be continued without the abolition of part of the gains. Therefore, Wednesday's session may take for correction. In my opinion currency pair should move between levels 1,1217-63. (Alternative Version involves crossing Tuesday's rush towards 1.1288, and only at this altitude will see counterattack supply side).
On Thursday, we have a conference Mario Draghi, which may lead to greater volatility and this should be taken into account in their investment strategy. (Mario Draghi could give a signal to the weakening of the single currency. If that happens, it's killing over the downtrend line will once again prove to be false).
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (05.09-09.09)Currency pair after Friday breaking above the downtrend line (drawn from the summit at the level of 1.1617), in the second part of the day back below of that line. On Monday due to the Labor Day in the US liquidity may be lower, but the demand side will try to correct some declines. Therefore, the movement toward the 1,1174-86 seems very likely. Considering the lack of data I do not think that the demand was able to bring back to above the level of 1.12. (The first important data will be released only on Tuesday).
Alternate version assumes deepening declines towards 1,1123-30 and only at this altitude counterattack see the demand side. Breaking down the last support 1.1123 will signal further declines.
Subjectively looking at the eurodollar market, I assume further weakening the single currency.
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (29.08-02.09)On Friday, there was a strong declines. Currency Pair stopped at the support of 1.1179 (38.2% abolition of inheritance from 1,1617- 1.0909. The end of the week there was a little higher at 1.1195.
Looking at the chart EURUSD in the coming hours, we can assume that the new beginning of a new week, he should bring a growth rebound Friday session. Therefore, one should expect increases toward resistance levels are located at 1,1217-45. Strong resistance will be here downtrend line (the level of 1.1617), which is located at 1.1217 and coincides with the 23.6% of the abolition of Friday's declines. In my opinion, the strength of the upward movement, will determine the future direction of the currency pair discussed. I will not be original if I say that the weakness of demand at these levels will lead to attacking the supply side. Therefore, it should be emphasized that, if the demand mean a return toward the last peak, at 1,1217-45 resistance must be overcome. In the case of defense by supply these levels, Eurodollar will head towards the last low of 1.1180. A pessimistic defeat of support will signal that the increases were finished and return to the falls towards lower price levels.
Analyzing the Eurodollar in a broader aspect, you should think about whether the recent rally from 1.0909 to the 1.1367 level was not only a corrective movement, falls from 1.1617 to 1.0909 level. In this variant could return to decline as the traffic growth reached 61.8% fibo level, which is usually the maximum range of the correction, because the movements of corrective rarely tolerate higher values. Certainly, maintaining the eurodollar rate below 1,1217-45, will support this thesis.
Summary:
At the moment, sentiment is starting to change and investors begin, look favorably towards the US dollar. Last occurrence Janet Yellen is confirmation of this. However, everything will depend on the future of US data that may (in the case of weaker readings), quickly put out the enthusiasm of the market that prevailed during Friday.
The key for the future direction of the Eurodollar will be data from the US.
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 08/17/16On Tuesday there was a strong growth, which broke last important resistance. Overcoming the level of 1.1233 is a signal that there has been to knock the mountain with more than several weeks side trend. The currency pair reached the 1.1322 level, which covers the cleft of 6 June and represents around 61.8% abolish inheritance from 1.1617 to 1.0909. From a technical point of view, the road to higher levels has been opened. In this case, we should see a correction of Tuesday's gains and then the game should include the demand side. (Support is located at 1.1263 (50% fibo), 1.1245 (downtrend line) and 1,1217-33).
After breaking the level of 1.1322, the next target seems to be the level of 1.1346, which can be a strong barrier to demand. (The model range of motion correction downward from the level of 1,1617-1,0909). It was therefore to be expected at this level, attacking the supply side. While overcoming resistance will signal that we are heading towards 1.1427 and 1,1449-60. At the moment the market sentiment favors a common currency.
Alternative variant involves breaking the support at 1,1217-33. In this case, you must reckon with further declines towards 1,1166-91.
In connection with empty calendar in macroeconomic major fluctuations to be expected in the evening, when investors learn about the FOMC protocol.
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 16/08/16The technical situation on the main currency pair has not changed. At the moment a small advantage is the demand side, which is trying to once again lead to break the resistance level at 1.12. However, increases are limited, as the market awaits Tuesday's readings, which may be the signal for a stronger movement.
If you receive readings support the European currency, the demand side will receive strong support, which may result in attack and breaking resistance at 1,1217-33. In this variant will to break with the top side of the trend of several weeks, which will open the way towards 1.1427. Previously, however, the demand will have to face, with a line drawn downward from the top of the 3 May (1.1617). Resistance is located in the vicinity of 1.1250.
Otherwise, you must reckon with the acquisition of the initiative before the supply, which is supported by the data will lead to declines. The first resistance will be the last local minima at 1,1054-66, whose defeat will pave the way toward support level 1,1092-1,1125.
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (25.07-29.07).Last week brought weakening of the euro against the dollar, which was consistent with my assumptions, which I presented in the last daily reports. On Friday also they came to break the bottom of the nearly three-week trend side. Overcoming support at 1,0972-81 may suggest a further weakening of the euro against the dollar, towards the level of 1.0909 (at least after the announcement of a referendum). At this level (1.0909), I expect to activate the demand side, which will certainly defend that level. Any break 1.0909 support will indicate the weakness of the euro, which further confirms the downward trend. In this case, the aim in the longer term may be last year's lows.
EUR/USDImportant resistance zone 1,1100-30 . In my opinion, a good place to open short positions . The first objective 1.1029 . The second objective 1.0909
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD at the 30.06 / 16The technical situation on eurodolarze has not changed much from yesterday's session. Demand side all the time trying to correct previous declines, but from what we see upward movements are limited. The demand side was able to lead to the abolition of the 38.2% fibo recent decline from 1.1427 - 1.0909. Wednesday's breakout above 1.1111 may suggest that the correction has not finished yet and perhaps demand side will take yet another attempt to attack towards 1,1168-88. Previously, however, the demand will have to overcome the resistance level 1.1130. After completion of the correction expect further declines towards the recent lows. Higher price levels will be a great opportunity to play for a short time.
In the case of taking the initiative by the supply side, the Eurodollar will head towards 1.1050 and 1.1013. Overcoming these levels will open the way toward 1.0971 and 1.0909. In the version of the more pessimistic, Eurodollar market may experience decreases even in the area 1,0810-1,0825.
Fundamental situation is not conducive to a common currency and hard in this case to assume that the current correction can turn into a greater movement upward. European currency not only pregnant but Brexit on the horizon, we also have a referendum in Italy, which applies to limit the political role of the Senate.
