Hi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart! Have a great day everyone!
Hi guys, I have posted my thoughts based on the "Italian Debt Crisis" narrative a few days ago. We have popped nicely from then and now look to be correcting on lower timeframes!
Credit in Europe and US and not confirming a Sovereign debt crisis in Italy YET. This opens the door to long opportunities!
Been a busy last several days of moving into a new residence, but I'm back and ready to publish more ideas than ever. Thank you for sticking with me! The FXE, an ETF that tracks the value of the Euro, has been devastated in recent weeks due to political turmoil especially in Italy, but also in Spain. The Euro has the look and feel of a falling knife, but a...
Betting the Swiss Franc's Italian-Inspired Comeback Is Temporary drduru.com $USDCHF $EURCHF #forex $FXF $FXE
... for a 1.35/contract debit. I seem to be taking quite a few directional shots lately. Here's a neutral to bearish one in the Euro proxy (FXE) where I paid 1.35 for a two-wide (67.5% the width of the spread).
Case for FXE Bear Put Spread Next week’s ECB meeting seems unlikley to result in increased rates tapering while the Fed is actively unwinding QE Softer EU inflation data, manufacturing PMI’s, and Italian elections keep pressure low on Draghi to tighten despite solid GDP statistics Recent US equity spike in volatility likely to be top of ECB voters’ minds. Target...
It might work, taking out the EUR of the equation, there's a short-term breakout preceded by a divergence between the german 2-yr bond and the unique currency; as this is a relation, it means that choosing one of the side makes more profit that going for one and keep against the other. Just a matter of options.
On the Daily chart we see a beautiful pattern. The 113 level on FXE (EURO) has been resistance since 2015. We've tested that area 5 times. Finally in July, we broke though, came back and retested, and now we are bouncing off of that level. A beautiful pattern here. The base since 2015 has been forming for 2 years, so this looks like an amazing opportunity to...
Nice pop and now consolidating. Buy if the break upward.
Basically, a synthetic short FXE position with some put side flexibility in the event that I am totally wrong ... . Metrics: POP%: 46% Max Profit: $95/contract Max Loss/BPE: $105/contract BE's at 102.04/105.96 Theta: .38 Delta: -22 Notes: Shooting for 50% max ... .
FXE Short @ 108.36; TP 106, SL your choice
With the French elections now in the rear-view mirror, the Euro is at 1.10-ish at Asian open, and I'm looking to watch and short /E6 or FXE after seeing how far the spot forex pair goes here. Typically, the currency doesn't move all that much in the Asian session, so I kind of want to see what the European market does with the news before committing to a short...
FXE JUNE 16TH 105/108 SHORT CALL VERTICAL The first of the two setups is a "static" short call vertical with a break even around 106 resistance. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 58% Max Profit: $120/contract Max Loss: $180/contract BE: 106.20 Notes: Look to manage at 50% profit. FXE JUNE 16TH 107 SHORT CALL/SEPT 15TH 110 LONG CALL DIAGONAL This particular...
With VIX in another ebb and a paucity of high quality premium selling earnings plays in the making for next week with both high implied volatility rank and high implied volatility, I'm looking at exchange traded funds instead for potential plays. For instance, EWY, the South Korea exchange traded fund, makes sense in the current geopolitical environment, and its...
Post-French elections, the fairly obvious thing to do is to think about shorting the Euro here or its proxy, FXE. Unfortunately, we don't know exactly where FXE will open, but if the EURUSD chart is any indication, it will be in the vicinity of previous resistance at 105-ish. Similarly, we don't know exactly what this spread will price at, so I can't provide the...
With IV rank at over 46 on FXE, the expected move in 46 days is +/- 2.61 (Prices at 106.01-100.79). If I sell a Big lizard, my break even on the downside would be just below the expected move and we don't have risk to the upside (In case it wants to pull back to the 200 EMA). Sold the 103 Straddle with upside protection buying the 105 call with 46 days to...
With the IV rank above 50 on FXE its a good time to sell premium. I could do a Strangle or Straddle, but since we are at an extreme and very far from the 200 EMA I don't want the risk to the upside. So I will be making a at the money Put ratio spread. Selling 2 of the 102 Puts to finance one of the 104 Puts. This way we have a 69.5% chance to make money at...