WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST: USD Still Bullish? YES! Buy It!This forecast is for the week of Dec. 16th - 20th.
The USD INDEX is indicating strength, continuing from last week going into this week.
The economic calendar has red folders for every day this week.
THe xxxUSD pairs are looking bearish, while the USDxxx pairs are looking bullish.
The USD Index closed last week very bearish, trading through the previous week's low. A pullback makes sense for this week, at least for the beginning of it. With NFP coming on Friday, trading up until Wed may be the safest way to go.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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Transcript
Fxmarkets
GBPJPY H4 - Short SetupGBPJPY H4
This pair has been very one sided this week, completely bearish, reversal, completely bullish. Had my eye on 150.000 which exploded, eyes peeled for 151 region to see if we have any signs of slowdown.
This is the spanner in the works as compared to EJ, UJ etc as mentioned on the previous post. 1:5 from the indicated order details.
NZDCAD H4 - Long Trade SetupNZDCAD H4
Mean best value in between the middle of the zones indicated? We talked about this in the webinars we have been pushing out, and hopefully it makes logical sense now as I post examples more frequently.
Potential double bottom on support again, this was out preferred buy zone, and obvious zone to look to catch bid. Eyes peeled.
GBPUSD H4 - Long Trade SetupGBPUSD H4 - Corrections seen after the big rally and upside break yesterday, eastern session has pretty much been purely corrective moves, coming back into the EUR/LON open, we may be able to expect bullish continuations, may hear a little more on Brexit progress today before the weekend.
NZDCAD D1 - Long Trade SetupNZDCAD D1 - Daily close yesterday saw the upside breakout, a retest of the newly formed support zone could warrant buying opportunity off the back of todays close. Already starting to see a pullback, we have breakout highs, resistance to support and 0.90 whole number too, so a handful of confluences. RR is also sitting at a huge 1:6.
FX Minors: Current Market Trends & Covid-19 / U.S. ElectionsIn this analysis, we take on the Swiss Franc (CHF) versus the Brazilian Real (BRL) to gauge the prevailing sentiment in the FX markets, in the context of U.S. Presidential Elections uncertainties around the U.S. Dollar (USD), as well as the diminishing in importance of Covid-19 globally & a generalised overextension of major currencies to the upside against FX minors (such as the BRL, HUF, PLN, HRK & so on).
A short sell-off in this CHF/BRL pair is particularly significant due to the 'safe-haven' quality of the Swiss Franc in comparison to the rather fragile Brazilian Real, which is interesting when we consider the underlying fundamental factors driving such a move, less influenced by a strengthening in the Real, but rather a global cooldown in the pandemic situation, which favours baby steps towards business as usual, portfolio diversification & a healthy profit-taking / opportunity-seeking in the markets.
When we take into account the dramatic moves to the downside across all FX minors, a global recovery from this pandemic does imply some gradual increase in demand for minor currencies such as the Real, which in turn also means the nearing of supply levels for major currencies, as the need for 'safe havens' diminish inasmuch as the generalised fear of abnormal global conditions gives way to a slow return back to normality.
Wish you guys good trading and if you enjoy this analysis, please give me a like and share your ideas on the comments section, I'll really appreciate feedback from you guys and I promise to read and reply to each and every one of them as soon as possible.
An amazing week for all of you and until the next post! :)
CAD/USD Medium-Term Analysis: Weekly Market AnalysisThis is the second analysis on this series of majors against the U.S. Dollar (USD). In the previous post we analysed the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) against the USD; now we're taking a look at the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the USD. The CAD is second in our ranking of currencies in relation to the 'Rate Of Change' (ROC) with the U.S. Dollar as quote currency. With over 2% appreciation in the last quarter (ROC, 15, W), with technicals indicating the nearing of supply zones, we'll be tracking the CAD for countertrend shorting opportunities in the short-term, and longing pullback opportunities in the medium-term, as it approaches previous key levels of demand.
Wish you guys good trading and if you enjoy this analysis, please give me a like and share your ideas on the comments section, I'll really appreciate feedback from you guys and I promise to read and reply to each and every one of them as soon as possible.
An amazing week for all of you and until the next post! :)
CNY/USD Medium-Term Analysis: Weekly Market BreakdownIn this analysis, we started taking on the majors against the U.S. Dollar (USD), beginning with the Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY). Despite its still lower status in comparison with the traditional majors (USD, GBP, EUR, CHF, JPY, CAD, AUD & NZD) and also its lower liquidity and overall current non-relevance in the wider FX market, it nonetheless scored the highest appreciation in the last quarter in USD terms, higher than any other traded currency, either major or minor, with over 5% up on the 'Rate Of Change' (ROC) for the last 15 periods on the weekly.
With that in mind, we begin this series by carefully analysing this pair, taking into consideration major support and resistance levels, as well as divergences between price action on the IDC (i.e. 'broker-neutral') compiled chart & oscillator data (ROC, 15, W). For this specific analysis, we opted for not using Fibonacci levels and instead adopted price action pivot points for framing our perspective on market movements.
We're hoping to continue this series on the other majors and (if time allows it!) dive into some of the minors as well. Wish you guys good trading and if you enjoy this analysis, please give me a like and share your ideas on the comments section, I'll really appreciate feedback from you guys and I promise to read and reply to each and every one of them as soon as possible.
An amazing week for all of you and until the next post! :)
DXY H4 - Long Trade SetupDXY H4 - Resistance zone has now been turned to support after breaking and retesting. New highs required to maintain upside momentum. Trying to follow YEN and USD strength in line with market risk. For example, minor bounce on EJ (Yen relief) but soon to be reversing downside once again as EUR/LON market volume resumes.
NZDUSD H4 - Long SetupNZDUSD H4 - DXY pushing marginally above 93.350 ish, need to keep an eye on DXY resistance to see if it breaks upside, if it does we can expect continuations of ***USD bears and USD*** bulls. Just marking up some setups and zones for consideration. Best practice to wait for the dust to settle and see which zones holds before entering.
GBPUSD H4 - Long Trade SetupGBPUSD H4 - Still creeping higher after a reversal threat, initially pushed 1:1.75 off the initial bounce, before correcting and dumping, partials taken and stopped in profit with the remaining position. Managed to get a late re-entry after fresh highs broke on the hourly.
GBPAUD H4 - Short SetupGBPAUD H4 - Still trading between the S/R range, approaching resistance at the moment, may want to look for reversals to then trade back down to support. 30 minutes until H4 close. Selling from resistance was calculated at just under 1:3 yesterday, ultimately depends on entries etc.
EURUSD H4 - Long Trade SetupEURUSD H4 - Seen some consolidation on this 1.19 handle since we tie in with our previous resistance highs. We could see some market relief, to correct this recent bull run, but I think we should break resistance at some point and trade above 1.19. DXY is on support, anticipating DXY support to break, but as mentioned, we may see a mild bounce/correction first, before breaking on attempt #2
USDCAD H4 - Short Trade SetupUSDCAD H4 - Slow markets like I mentioned in the video rundown, typical Monday, USD bear setup here on UC. New lows being set is required, nice break and retest already seen, CAD was an out performer last week, and USD was weak, trying to established whether this is a continued theme into this week too.