Crude Oil - Momentum Returning Crude Oil has finally exited it's retracement and is pushing in line with the trend again.
Fxrenew
GBP - UK CPI likely to be non-influentialAmidst the Brexit mess, UK CPI will likely carry much less weight today.
We expect a disappointment and lower inflation, but we are skeptical
that there will be a news trade.
GBP - Untouchable until the VotePrice action has no weight until the Vote later today (19.00 GMT)
so best option is to not touch GBP until after the Vote.
DXY - Movements Driven mostly by CNYThe USDCNY seems to be the main component of USD moves lately.
Chinese data is becoming more influential and China is becoming
a clear protagonist in the FX market.
GBPCHF - Low Volatility Breakout in progressGBP is rallying ahead of the Brexit vote.
We like this low-volatility breakout setup to take advantage of a potential pop in GBP
depending on the nature of the Vote.
Pay attention also to PM May's address today at 15.30 GMT.
Dow - Volatility Still Sky High, Buyers BewareBased on volatility considerations, it seems like we're in a consolidation pattern after the leg lower. This might last some time - possibly until Brexit (March) or the EU elections. We are not buyers in current conditions.
AudUsd - Shorts in Play after Fakeout of 0.7300Worse AU Data alongside broader risk-off sentiment has turned AudUsd 180° and we are now in a decline. We effectively faked out 0.7300/technical resistance and are headed towards 0.7040s.
DXY - Pressure still favours ShortsUSD still under pressure testing the recent swing low at 96.60s which is also the longer term
trendline. This is a key level and there will be lots of technical play around it which
will make things challenging in the very short-term.
DXY - Key Reversal Day after Powell's SpeechThe USD is backing off from recent highs and printed a key reversal day yesterday. The upward sloping trendline is likely the next technical test, and then it's down to 95.80/96.00 to hold this trend in place.
November has been a choppy month thus far and the fate of the USD hinges on FOMC minutes and Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.
DXY - Trend remains up ahead of PowellRetail traders have started to short the USD in the past couple of days and this adds convinction to our USD long stance.
We do believe Powell (and FOMC tomorrow) will offer a more hawkish stance than the market currently expects.
DXY - Bullish Engulfing off SupportThe USD is back with a blast after posting a bullish engulfing from 96.00.
We see further upside today towards 97.00, 97.19 and then current cycle highs.
EURUSD - Long Stance in PlayThere are various reasons supporting our long EurUsd stance: a major double top forming on the dollar index and corresponding busted breakout
USD is ignoring positive data (quite a bearish sign); Fed shifting it’s lingo to a less hawkish tone; President Trump has been hamstrung by the mid-term elections in his ability to implement domestic growth policies; the trade war with China.
We are hence issuing a long EURUSD stance with initial target around 1.1800
Crude Oil - Downtrend Still Intact The Downtrend in Crude is still intact. Look for sellers either at 58.00 today or on a break of 56.00.
In between is the chop zone. Caution as OPEC meets tomorrow and there might be talk of production cuts.
DXY - Short Term momentum still negativeLast week closed in an evidently bearish manner. We seem to be en-route towards 96.00 which is where the next bull/bear battleground
is. The most recent swing low on the Daily chart should hold if the USD is to regain strength. But for now, the USD remains a sell on rallies.
GBPUSD - Biased short as a No-Deal Brexit is likely Key resignations in May's government are putting pressure on the Pound. We might not get much downside again today until we see whether the DUP will pull its support from the government or not. Technically, 1.2800/30 is the main area where sellers should appear.
DXY - Rangebound conditions persistIn the short-term, the USD has established a range which needs to be broken on either side in order for momentum to appear.
96.80-97.40 are the barriers to watch. Careful of false breaks also, and keep in mind that the move in GBP is distoring the DXY a tad.
DXY - Still in a retracement towards 96.00DXY is making a slow and volatile retracement with target at the swing low of 96.00.
Short-term bias remains largely neutral due to the nature of it's movement.
DXY - Wait & Watch until today's CPIThe DXY is going through a pullback ahead of today's CPI data.
Data should come in strong, so watch 97.40 as a momentum re-engagement line.
USDJPY - Close to Target at 114.50Our bullish USDJPY call is coming close to it's target and delivering a 3:1 reward.
We are watching for signs of reversal up here, but at the same time we hope 114.50 breaks and we can simply trail
our stops and obtain an even better reward.
GBPUSD - Sell on RalliesGBP has been hit hard on the latest Brexit developments.
There is always headline risk looming, but for the moment we are in a strong sell-rallies posture.
The first target is 1.2700.
EURUSD - 1.1300 taken out, sell rallies the way to goUSD strength, along with the Italy-EU jitters, has forced the EurUsd through 1.1300 which was the main support zone in the near-term.
We not have considerable downside opportunity. Keep an eye on Italy's budget issues into tomorrow, but make no mistake: the trend is now
pushing down with force.
DXY - After the break of recent highs, 97.80s are in sightUSD remains a buy on dips after the FOMC. The next upward target is 97.80.
DXY - Biased Long post FOMCThe FOMC has stimulated another round of USD-buying which has pushed the USD through our momentum high
marker (green line) and as such we see EUro and Cable lower today.
