DXY - Position Squaring ahead of NFP and US Mid-TermsStale USD long positions were killed yesterday after position squaring aheda of NFP and US Mid-Terms forced a series of stop losses to fire off on all the majors. We covered over 200% of the ATR across the board on this move.
I suspect things will be choppy until after the US MId-Terms now, as players wait before committing fresh money.
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Dow Jones - Short-Term trend pushes higher on Trump/Xi commentsThe US-China trade war fears have subsided after a positive phone call between Trump and Xi yesterday. THe markets dismissed Apple's worse results and continued bidding up stocks.
We're now in full recovery mode as suspected, with retail traders shorting into this rise.
GBPUSD - Biased higher on Brexit NewsThe Times reported that British PM Theresa May has struck a deal with EU that would give UK financial services companies continued access to European markets after Brexit. The Irish border issue is still unresolved, and we have the Bank of England out later. So caution is advised, but for now the bias has flipped and we're short-term positive.
Dow Jones - Short-term momentum shifting higherPositive signs from the Dow as we overtook 25000 yesterday. We still need to clear the 25300/400 zone which is
holding the market down still, but we have definitely stabilized now and fears of a crash are gone (for the moment).
We may see some consolidation now ahead of the US Mid-Term elections on Nov. 6th.
Nasdaq - Downtrend intact. Longs require break of 7000Nasdaq is the canary in the coal mine. It peaked in August and now is showing the strongest rejection of lower prices.
Volatility will likely remain elevated ahead of the US elections but we are watching Nasdaq for signs of recovery.
First level to overcome is 7000 - that would be the first sign of a change and longs emerging.
Dow Jones - Key levels to watchInvestors are showing much nervousness ahead of the US Mid-Term Elections. Sources report the Democrats are so vindictive that they intend to reverse everything and anything that Trump has done, independently from the costs to the economy.
Downside remains intact despite the short-term consolidation we're seeing. Only a close above Thursday's high/25040 will release some pressure.
We may push lower into the week of Nov 5th, and the next key supports are 24400, 24000, 23100/200.
FTSEMIB - Pressure still to the downsideWith the EU still poised to reject the Italian budget, there's still room for downside movement
in the FTSEMIB, which will also take it's cue from equity markets in Asia and the current risk
off sentiment.
Signs of Caution from Consumer ETFsConsumer Staples (usually a defensive investment) are taking precedence over Consumer Discretionary (usually aggressive posture, when all is well) in October. We are pressing lower and showing the largest drop in a while. This is potentially a leading indicator of some kind of slowdown coming.
BTPs - Lower on the Anticipation of a Clash with BrusslesThe Italian Government sent the aggressive budget proposal to Brussels, with Finance Minister Tria suggesting he can "explain" things to EU counterparties and receive acceptance. Market participants know it's a long shot, and BTPs should come under more pressure.