USDJPY - Low Volatility Breakout in PlayUSDJPY is benefitting from Risk-On tone and higher US yields. We have also printed a low-volatility breakout and hence expect to see further upside.
Fxrenew
DXY - Negative Bias Remains, first target reachedPrice pushed aggressively towards 94.50 yesterday and today is poised to break through the support zone and see how strong orders are on the other side. 94.10s are the next target.
DXY - Negative Bias In PlayThe DXY has broken below 95.00 and as such, has created a negative bias.
We favour further weakness towards 94.50 and 94.10s.
USDTRY - Short-Term Pressure Down below 6.50The markets will be relaxed on Turkey so long as we remain below the 6.50 level. Until that level is broken, short-term bears hold the upper hand and EM stress is likely to be contained.
DXY - Still Neutral Within it's 95 - 95.70 rangeNothing to be done on the USD here. We're in a tight range and we simply need to wait until it pressures either boundary before acting.
DXY - Choppy Conditions RemainDXY is now officially choppy between 95.00 and 95.70. Only a break of these levels will entice further bets on the dollar.
GBPNZD - Weekly Volatility BreakoutFundamentally, GBPNZD relies on Brexit either coming to a “peaceful” resolution or market participants not getting too worried if it does not. It’s my belief that we will get one of these two scenarios. There is monetary policy and economic performance divergence in favor of GBP v NZD.
Technically, we are pushing on the top boundary of an extended weekly range. Volatility has been subdued inside the range and makes this breakout interesting.
USDTRY - Relaxation ahead of Central Bank MeetingThe USDTRY is relaxing a tad, and the short-term bias has turned south for the first time in weeks. The Turkish Central Bank meets this week but so long as Erdogan continues with his current political stance (adversarial stance vs. Western Countries) there is little hope for the Try.
Take note of the key levels.
DXY - Short-Term Pressure to the UpsideAfter Friday's strong NFP report, the USD is pushing higher again, and pressure will remain to the upside (in the short-term at least) so long as we remain above 95.20s. 95.70 is the first hurdle, where we found offers last time round.
DXY - Pressure on 95.00 and short-term bias flip in the cardsToday's action would suggest the possibility of flipping once again into a short-term negative bias on the Dollar.
The pressure on 95.00 is strong and we might attempt to push through it ahead of NFP today.
Once again these are short-term gyrations within a broader uptick.
DXY - Between Scylla and CharibdysThe Dollar is neither here nor there today. It hasn't changed bias but it's no longer moving upwards with momentum.
So right now it's untouchable. We remain neutral and look for better opportunities on the crosses.
USDTRY - Higher low into today with pressure on yesterday's highMore emerging market stress today, with USDTRY probing yesterday's high and a break will generate a new continuation move higher.
Look for intraday pullbacks to be bought. So long as we remain in positive territory today, this thing can press higher.
DXY - 95.70s Reject Price, Neutralizing momentum for nowDXY is still biased long, but the rejection from 95.70s was strong.
Look for 95.20s to hold on the pullback. So long as we stay above there, it's game on for longs.
Today however, we would avoid tackling DXY unless it does reach the support zone at 95.20.
USDTRY - Pressing slightly higher againEmerging Markets are once again under a tad of pressure with USDTRY, USDARS, USDBRL higher in early trade.
This is no doubt aiding the USD rally (or is it the cause?).
USDCAD - Bias LongThe Canadian Dollar is taking a beating across the board, but especially vs USD as NAFTA talks prove to be more difficult than with Mexico.
Pressure it to the Long side, as we approach the first target for the move.
DXY - Strength into LondonSame story as noted yesterday: bias remains long on DXY. Eur & Cable showing weakness. No change in levels.
BTPs - Showing more signs of stressClash between EU and Italy becoming more evident as Italy Rating Outlook Cut by Fitch on Possible Fiscal Loosening but "Italians come before ratings agencies" deputy PM says - “We have to put the financing in the budget so that at least 5 million impoverished Italians can get back to work.”
USDTRY - Longs still favouredPressure still to the topside for USDTRY. As USD gets bid vs. Try, look for risk-off
in G10 FX (Chf, Jpy buying).
DXY - Short-term bias flipped to LongCaution as today is a holiday in US and Canada. However, with a daily close back above 95.00, pressure is now
to the long side on the Dollar. This would mean, conversely, that pressure is mounting on the short side on
Euro and Cable.
USDARS - Emerging Markets in TroubleThe collapse of the Peso has accelerated after President Macri called yesterday for the IMF to accelerate disbursement under its standby programme amid rapidly deteriorating market sentiment. The Argentinian central bank hiked rates from 45% to 60% in a forceful attempt to shore up confidence. However, despite the hike, the Peso has continued to weaken. The ball is now clearly in the IMF's court...
USDTRY - Testing all-time highs6.68 is a sturdy resistance but the trend is up and pressure is on.
Do not sell this.
DXY - Momentum Weakened but Bias Still NegativeThe DXY is still holding between 94 and 95. Downwards momentum faded a tad yesterday, but nothing has changed materially.
Still some caution as month-end flows can kick in again today and push the USD lower.
DXY - Shorts still favoured below 95.00As we approach month-end, we should see further USD selling going through given the
monthly rebalancing effect. Beyond that, 95.00 is the closest momentum high that
would need to be vaulted in order for bulls to get involved.
