We got some decent news over the weekend: US/China trade truce, constructive surprise Trump meeting with Kim Jong Un, a Russian/Saudi OPEC+ agreement on extending cuts. The markets are currently digesting this risk-on sentiment with CHF and Jpy sold, NZD, CAD and USD bought, and equities strong. We like Dax longs this week especially after the strong gap...
Technical Setup forming on BSVUSD with a continuation breakout towards recent highs.
RBA Gov Lowe came out and said that it is "not unrealistic" to expect a further cut to the RBA's cash rate. We like playing AUD weakness against recent CAD strength, after a splendid CPI beat yesterday. Prefer pullbacks to get aboard, towards the short-term resistance because the main target is close.
Stocks received a boost from the more positive wave of headlines relating to a US-China trade deal. This led to a big push in the equities markets, before things settled down. Ranges are likely to hold before tonight's FOMC decision. The trend is up and continuation breaks are favoured if we get the dovish FOMC that everyone expects. Trade AFTER the event -...
Yesterday we said most traders were waiting for Draghi at Sintra. Here is waht we were waiting for! Euro fell after Draghi says "rate cuts" are part of the policy measures going forward. Continuation break in play!
Slow morning in FX. Most traders are waiting for Draghi at Sintra or the FOMC on Wednesday. Euro fell back after the bullish ECB meeting and now momentum is negative. Is the market is ready to embrace a U-turn and explore the opposite direction? Only Draghi or Powell will provide the answer. Play continuation breaks, likely on any Sintra news today.
There has been a lot more buzz around adoption as the price of Bitcoin surges, with many mainstream names coming out in support of blockchain integration. Demand for web 3.0 applications is on the rise. As usual, the technical aspects are more influential than the fundamentals for BSV. The upwards momentum has started again and we like the odds of buying a...
Gold continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats. Breakout in play!
Risk appetite is once again sour after Trump tweeted and a Washington Post interview fuelled concerns over political pressure on the Fed and trade woes anew. The US President first tweeted that the US is put at a ‘big disadvantage’ as US rates are kept too high while others are devaluing their currencies, explicitly mentioning the EUR and CNY. Separately,...
The Jpy crosses have benefitted from the weekend news of an agreement between the US and Mexico, and on reassurances from the Chinese government that it will continue to provide stimulus. We like using the risk-on sentiment to buy CadJpy given the strength seen in the Loonie since last week's employment numbers. Buy on dips towards 81.80 or on a break of the...
UK leadership hopefuls launch campaigns to take control of Brexit today. Initial news due around 17.00 CET. Boris Johnson is the main candidate and he is pro-Brexit. GBP is being pressured because of this, since no EU-Government wants to see a no-deal Brexit. At the same time, Canadian data was extremely strong and we like the odds of further weakness in...
PM May will be leaving today, and this opens the debat for her successor. Boris Johnson is the main candidate and he is pro-Brexit. GBP is being pressured because of this, since no EU-Government wants to see a no-deal Brexit. At the same time, IVEY PMI was better yesterday and CAD Employment may beat. We like shorting pullbacks from current levels to 6980.
Oil prices rose around 1% to move further away from five- month lows hit earlier in the week, buoyed by a report that Washington could postpone trade tariffs on Mexico and signs OPEC and other producers may extend crude supply cuts. We like the odds of a bounce from 53.00 towards the short-term resistance in the 54.20s.
EurUsd remains in a range after the ECB left rates unchanged, announced favourable TLTROs and pushed the first rate hikes into 2020. This was ALL PRICED IN. The Euro is now higher as a result. We may take out the 1.1300 level if Draghi does nothing to inspire dovishness.
The Euro has held up recently due to the US Dollar weakness. However, ECB Villeroy said Europe was facing great economic uncertainties, with trade tension the biggest threat to growth. On the data front, Eurozone CPI was softer than expected. At the same time, Kiwi did receive a bit of support after the RBNZ Assistant Governor said rates would remain 'broadly'...
No change in our stance on BitCoin. We are in a range, consolidating ahead of future breakouts. Bias remains up as the market accumulates for a break through all-time highs.
The Australian Dollar has been bid up on Tuesday, despite today's RBA rate cut and round of softer Aussie retail sales. Why is AUD stronger despite the rate cut? Simply because it was already priced into the market, while the softer data has been less of a focus. We are close to targets currently, and we have Gov Lowe speaking in just over 30 minutes. Stay flat...
US equities slid and sovereign bonds surged as investors feared President Trump's shock move to slap tariffs on Mexico risked tipping the United States, and maybe the whole world, into recession. The risk-off move has been strong during Asia and we like Dax shorts as a way to play this theme into Europe. Today, since we already pushed through the target, we...