Fundamentals have not changed. The speculative flows are violent on cryptocurrencies. Gap Support has held. We would start attempting longs on continuation breaks. The continuation break is a confirmation that the pullback is over (at least temporarily).
Bitcoin remains bid despite the hack at a major exchange. Also, Starbucks, Microsoft, TD Ameritrade and Whole Foods are all making moves to adopt BTC. Finally, the story about an institutional cryptocurrency prime dealer partnering with M.Y. Safra Bank has been another positive headline. We like the odds of buying on pullbacks towards the highlighted support...
The Australian Dollar has been facing headwinds from this latest wave of risk reduction, mostly brought on by the breakdown in talks between the US and China on trade. The downtrend was accelerated by poor data overnight. Regarding the CHF, the SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any...
The Fed's dovish shift in 2019 that pushed prices higher has been overshadowed by ramped up tension on the global trade front. This should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment until other factors prevail. Our bias remains down on the Dow, as highlighted by the 55 SMA Slope and the fact we have not yet broken key resistance areas. It will be tricky today....
One of the questions I like to ask aspiring traders is this: are you bullish or bearish anything right now? It seems like a dumb question but it actually gives a wealth of information regarding the trader’s mindset and whether he is thinking multidimensionally or not. Compare these 2 replies: I’m currently bearish on USDJPY. I see strength in JPY across the...
NZDCHF remains anchored in a downtrend as highlighted by the 55 SMA Slope. The Kiwi sunk to a fresh yearly low last week, after the RBNZ cut interest rates. With risk sentiment deteriorating in the face of broken down trade talks between the US and China, Kiwi upside is likely to be limited. We favour shorts on pullbacks towards short-term resistance levels.
Bloomberg reported that Italian PM Conte accused Salvini of bringing down the coalition government in an end to a bad week for the Italian bond market. Meanwhile ramped up tension on the global trade front should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment. Technically we have dropped through our first target and selling continues. We favour continuation breaks...
Dow Jones remains the weakest US index and is in a downtrend as highlighted by the 55 SMA slope. The downtrend is generated by the US/China trade war issues. Headline risk is present. We favour further downside through the continuation level.
Momentum is positive on USDCAD as highlighted by our 55 SMA Slope. We are pressing agains a clear continuation level. The USD has gained strength since yesterday across the board. We favour breakouts today.
Markets remain in risk-off mode on the US/China trade debate. Also, BREXIT issues are surfacing again. This is adding pressure to the FTSE. Momentum is negative as highlighted by the 55 SMA slope. We favour adding on a continuation break today.
NZDJPY was pushed through our target on the dovish RBNZ meeting. Downtrend remains intact as highlighted by the 55 SMA slope and key level breach. Positions have likely been squared after the widely expected RBNZ decision. Pullback area is now the main focus but be cautious, we likely need worse data to spur further shorts.
Dow Jones is the weakest US index. Trend is down as highlighted by the key daily level break and the 55 SMA Slope. Everyhing hinges on US/China trade talks so we would wait until the US Cash Open before trading and would prefer a continuation break on bad news.
Italy's stock market is the weakling in Europe due to the risk-off sentiment and on the back of the downward revision of growth in 2019 from 0.2% to 0.1% and a deficit in 2020 above 3%. The 10Y spread to Germany widened. We have broken through a key daily sup/res level. Momentum is negative. Consider adding shorts on a pullback.
Directional movement is stalled currently, as highlighted by the lateral 55 SMA. We need a break of either the short-term support or short-term resistance in order to start trending movement again. Patience is required for now.
NZDJPY matches strong vs. weak pairs in FX. Downtrend is intact and key resistance and continuation levels are highlighted. We suggest patience because the RBNZ is due tonight and can materially change things. Markets are looking for a rate cut (which would enhance the downtrend), but if they hold steady it will push NZD much higher.
President Trump's tweet has escalated the US/China trade war. We also have a possibility that the RBNZ will cut rates this week. Bias is down on NZDJPY and short-term resistance and continuation levls are highlighted.
President Trump's new escalation of the US/China trade war has enhanced the downtrend. Short-term resistance and continuation levels highlighted.
The long bias was flipped by President Trump's new escalation of the US/China Trade War. Whether it is a bluff or not is yet to be seen. For now, charts point lower. Short-term resistance and continuation levels highlighted.