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EUR/USD:Market Risks Weigh on Exchange Rate, says INGAccording to economists at ING, the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is likely to be primarily driven by the US Dollar in the near future. The pair may see a surge above the 1.1000 level, but the economists believe that it will be challenging to sustain any further gains. The economists note that if the ISM services reading comes in below consensus, it could trigger a break above the 1.1000 level. However, they caution that the sustainability of rallies beyond that point would need to be tested against the market's confidence to consistently unwind defensive dollar positions. This is particularly important given the ongoing risks of fresh financial turmoil and tighter liquidity. Looking to the European Central Bank (ECB), several key members of the ECB Governing Council, including Boris Vujcic, Bostjan Vasle, and Chief Economist Philip Lane, are scheduled to speak. While there is always a risk of surprise remarks by ECB officials, the economists believe that these risks have moderated recently, as most key speakers have aligned themselves with a pledge to keep raising rates, in line with their position on the dovish/hawkish spectrum. In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair may see a temporary surge above 1.1000, it is unlikely to sustain further gains without the market's confidence in consistently unwinding defensive dollar positions. Furthermore, ongoing risks of financial turmoil and tighter liquidity add to the uncertainty surrounding the pair's future movements.
by FOREXN1
9
USD/JPY Bears Dominate as US Dollar Hovers Near 2-Month LowsThe bears appear to be in charge of the USD/JPY as the US Dollar lingers close to a 2-month low. The market's focus now shifts to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls jobs data. The USD/JPY has dropped in Tokyo, reflecting the US Dollar's continued weakness. The pair is currently trading at around 131.50 and has fallen from its earlier high of 131.73 to a low of 131.30. The US Dollar remains under pressure, hovering near its two-month lows, as a result of several concerning data releases from the United States. These developments have reduced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, which now seems to be approaching the end of its monetary tightening cycle. Overnight data shows that labor market conditions may finally be easing, with job openings, a key labor demand indicator, down by 632,000 to 9.9 million on the final day of February. Furthermore, US factory orders have declined for the second consecutive month, falling by 0.7% in February after a 2.1% decline in January, following a 1.7% increase in December. This data follows the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s report yesterday that its Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.3 last month, the worst level since May 2020, from 47.7 in February.
by FOREXN1
3
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 05.04.2023 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed strong Bullish at 2020.600 as Daily breaks above recent Daily Resistance and the previous Monthly High. – Buys on close above 2025.100 targeting 1h previous Support formed on 9th March 2022 at 2030.100, Leaving Runners to the next 1h previous Support formed on 9th March 2022 at 2038.600. – Sells on close below 2016.200 targeting Previous Weekly / Daily Rejection wick formed on 20th March 2023 to retest 2009.800, Leaving Runners to the 4h previous Resistance formed on 24th March 2023 at 2000.200. – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change to be released 15mins after New York session opens forecasting 208k / Previous : 242k. Later on the New York session we have ISM Services PMI.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SalimFX20
1
EUR/USD Expected to Break 1.10 Before US Nonfarm PayrollsBased on the analysis of economists, it is expected that the EUR/USD currency pair will reach the 1.10 level before the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data. However, some experts suggest that there may be a pause before this anticipated jump, and the pair may find some support around 1.0870/1.0880 due to a potential recovery of the US Dollar and the need for further tightening by the European Central Bank to address core inflation. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for the EUR/USD remains bullish, and the 1.10 level may be breached next week, unless there is unexpectedly strong data from the US ISM and a generally quiet data calendar until the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday.
by FOREXN1
11
USD/JPY Remains Depressed on Soft Data and Lower YieldsThe USD/JPY currency pair has declined to 132.20, continuing its retreat from a two-week high. The drop in US Treasury bond yields and softer data, as well as upbeat comments from Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, may be behind the recent losses. Kishida has pledged more investment to speed up private investment in green transformation bonds to promote domestic decarbonization. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields have dropped for the past four days to 3.42%, while the two-year counterpart has also declined for two consecutive days to 3.97%. Softer US PMIs and lack of inflation fears from the OPEC+ supply cuts and the resulting oil price run-up have weighed on yields. Furthermore, the downbeat Fed calls have also contributed to the decline in yields and USD/JPY prices. As a result, the USD/JPY may face downward pressure ahead of this week's key US jobs report.
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD: Delayed Move to 1.10 Due to OPEC+ Production CutThe EUR/USD pair was expected to surge past the 1.10 mark this week, as per economists' predictions. However, the recently announced production cut by OPEC+ has given the dollar a much-needed boost, causing a delay in the anticipated move to 1.10. While breaking above 1.10 is still a possibility, the OPEC+ cut has had a positive effect on the USD, making it necessary for some disappointing US data to come out before the EUR/USD can make the predicted move. This lack of Euro-specific drivers this week makes it unlikely to happen, though the bulls would still prefer the pair to finish the week around 1.0850/1.0900. If the US data does turn out to be strong and the Fed makes hawkish comments, the pair may test the supports at 1.0700 and 1.0600.
by FOREXN1
39
USD/JPY Rises Near Two-Week High Ahead of NFP ReportThe USD/JPY pair has surged to an intraday high near 133.50, close to the highest level in two weeks. The recent rise can be attributed to higher US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US dollar as the market anticipates the release of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The recent challenges to market sentiment, mainly from the OPEC+ group's inflation worries, have also boosted the pair's rally. However, mixed domestic data and pre-NFP jitters have challenged the recent buyer sentiment. The Bank of Japan's closely watched Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q1 2023 declined to 1.0 from the previous reading of 7.0 and an expected 3.0. Meanwhile, Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for March improved to 49.2 from 48.6, indicating a contraction in private manufacturing activities. On the other hand, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, fell to 4.6% YoY in February, below the market expectation of 4.7%. Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. The receding hawkish calls surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have also supported USD/JPY buyers. However, the market seems to have given little attention to the recent easing fears of a banking crisis and the Fed's hawkish moves. Currently, Japan's Nikkei 225 is up 1.0% intraday to 28,041, while the S&P 500 Futures snapped a three-day uptrend. The US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields are trading with mild gains near 3.52% and 4.11%, respectively, after paring the latest losses. Looking forward, USD/JPY is expected to continue its rebound amid firmer yields and a light calendar. However, any disappointment in the incoming PMIs and NFP may weigh on the US dollar prices, considering the receding hawkish bets on the Fed.
by FOREXN1
15
EUR/CAD: Possible Reversal MovementThere may be a potential reversal in the movements of EUR/CAD following the breaking of its dynamic trendline and testing the top at 1.4940. The negative correlation between EUR/CAD and EUR/USD suggests that an increase in EUR/USD and a decrease in EUR/CAD may occur. We are currently waiting for this to happen. Our indicator has already signaled a sell entry, which we have acted upon. There is a strong possibility of this trend continuing further.
by FOREXN1
10
FXS/USDTSPOT BUY PLAY: FXS/USDT BROKE the consolidation range & CONSOLIDATING ABOVE IT after retesting it. Looking to accumulate some. Buy Zones are always mentioned on the charts itself with potential TAKE-PROFIT zones. STOP-LOSS = 25% below the average buying price TAKE-PROFIT zones are mentioned in the chart itself. DYOR. Always DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH before taking any trade or before investing your hard earned money. Suggestion/Tip – It is always better to take profit, whether all the zones are bought or not. Suggestion/Tip 2 - When price is moving on right way "it is always recommended to move stop-loss to profit side". If you like the idea and benefited from it please like , share & comment to keep us motivated.
Long
by EsCApetHEmAtRiCS
USDJPY Long Setup, looking strongGood morning fellow Traders! I have been tracking the YENUSD pair with great interest in recent weeks as we have been rebounding from its local low. The pair has a beautiful long-term trend on the higher timeframes, setting the direction I have been looking to trade. We are currently sitting in a sweet spot, the price has been consolidating around 130-137, however, as soon as we have left this range in the past, volatility has kicked in, both ways. We have broken through the high of 137 two days ago, making the idea very plausible and easy to understand. This is my Game Plan: - Clean push above 137 - Pullback onto 137 area, preferably seeing a pullback down to 136.8 - Consolidation on the red line, smooth prices needed here - No big slippage into the box, staying around the red line - Trigger signal once price starts to recover between 137 to 137.2 - Entry upon jumping out of the box This trend setup looks very strong because the higher timeframes support the direction we are trading in. Make sure to follow my Tradingview for more ideas and check out my BNB short post, we are in profits! Thanks for tuning in and let me know if you liked the video in the comments below. Many thanks. TraderCH
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Long
by TraderCHgold
7