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GBP/JPY:Vulnerable Below 164.0 Amid Positive UK Economic OutlookThe GBP/JPY pair is poised to experience further weakness below 164.00, despite a promising UK economic outlook. The sentiment among UK businesses has improved as political instability and inflationary pressures appear to be easing. However, any positive impact on Japan's inflation caused by external factors could cause problems for BoJ policymakers. The GBP/JPY cross is struggling to stay above the immediate support level of 164.00 during the Tokyo session, despite the Bank of England's (BoE) efforts to curb inflation through quantitative restrictions. BoE policymakers believe that the surge in February's inflation was a one-time occurrence, and that inflation will fall below 4% by the end of the year as energy costs decline. However, the robust economic outlook suggests otherwise. According to a report by Reuters on Tuesday, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said that most UK businesses expect sales to increase in the coming year, a positive development from late 2022, despite experiencing no sales growth in the past three months. The BCC also noted that "business sentiment improved as political turmoil and inflationary pressures showed some signs of easing" after a slump in business confidence in the latter half of 2022. Meanwhile, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill cautioned on Tuesday that inflation prospects still require careful consideration due to the potential persistence of domestically generated inflation. He also stated that "wage developments, particularly higher frequency indicators of current momentum, appear to be easing." On the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen remains subdued despite rising oil prices. While this could increase Japan's inflation, any contribution to inflation through external forces would create problems for Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers.
by FOREXN1
7
USD/JPY Bears Dominate as US Dollar Hovers Near 2-Month LowsThe bears appear to be in charge of the USD/JPY as the US Dollar lingers close to a 2-month low. The market's focus now shifts to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls jobs data. The USD/JPY has dropped in Tokyo, reflecting the US Dollar's continued weakness. The pair is currently trading at around 131.50 and has fallen from its earlier high of 131.73 to a low of 131.30. The US Dollar remains under pressure, hovering near its two-month lows, as a result of several concerning data releases from the United States. These developments have reduced expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, which now seems to be approaching the end of its monetary tightening cycle. Overnight data shows that labor market conditions may finally be easing, with job openings, a key labor demand indicator, down by 632,000 to 9.9 million on the final day of February. Furthermore, US factory orders have declined for the second consecutive month, falling by 0.7% in February after a 2.1% decline in January, following a 1.7% increase in December. This data follows the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s report yesterday that its Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.3 last month, the worst level since May 2020, from 47.7 in February.
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD Expected to Break 1.10 Before US Nonfarm PayrollsBased on the analysis of economists, it is expected that the EUR/USD currency pair will reach the 1.10 level before the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data. However, some experts suggest that there may be a pause before this anticipated jump, and the pair may find some support around 1.0870/1.0880 due to a potential recovery of the US Dollar and the need for further tightening by the European Central Bank to address core inflation. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for the EUR/USD remains bullish, and the 1.10 level may be breached next week, unless there is unexpectedly strong data from the US ISM and a generally quiet data calendar until the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday.
by FOREXN1
11
USD/JPY Remains Depressed on Soft Data and Lower YieldsThe USD/JPY currency pair has declined to 132.20, continuing its retreat from a two-week high. The drop in US Treasury bond yields and softer data, as well as upbeat comments from Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, may be behind the recent losses. Kishida has pledged more investment to speed up private investment in green transformation bonds to promote domestic decarbonization. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields have dropped for the past four days to 3.42%, while the two-year counterpart has also declined for two consecutive days to 3.97%. Softer US PMIs and lack of inflation fears from the OPEC+ supply cuts and the resulting oil price run-up have weighed on yields. Furthermore, the downbeat Fed calls have also contributed to the decline in yields and USD/JPY prices. As a result, the USD/JPY may face downward pressure ahead of this week's key US jobs report.
by FOREXN1
5
USD/JPY Shows Bullish Continuation, Possible Retest 133.000Over the last few hours, the USD/JPY pair has been showing a bullish uptrend and has formed a bullish continuation uptrend price pattern. As per this pattern, the price may retest the support level of 133.000 today before experiencing a new long pullback in the direction of the main trend. However, it is likely that the price will eventually change direction and form a new bearish setup. We are prepared with a position to compensate for this alternative scenario.
by DAY_PROFITS
1
EUR/USD: Delayed Move to 1.10 Due to OPEC+ Production CutThe EUR/USD pair was expected to surge past the 1.10 mark this week, as per economists' predictions. However, the recently announced production cut by OPEC+ has given the dollar a much-needed boost, causing a delay in the anticipated move to 1.10. While breaking above 1.10 is still a possibility, the OPEC+ cut has had a positive effect on the USD, making it necessary for some disappointing US data to come out before the EUR/USD can make the predicted move. This lack of Euro-specific drivers this week makes it unlikely to happen, though the bulls would still prefer the pair to finish the week around 1.0850/1.0900. If the US data does turn out to be strong and the Fed makes hawkish comments, the pair may test the supports at 1.0700 and 1.0600.
by FOREXN1
39
USD/JPY Rises Near Two-Week High Ahead of NFP ReportThe USD/JPY pair has surged to an intraday high near 133.50, close to the highest level in two weeks. The recent rise can be attributed to higher US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US dollar as the market anticipates the release of the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The recent challenges to market sentiment, mainly from the OPEC+ group's inflation worries, have also boosted the pair's rally. However, mixed domestic data and pre-NFP jitters have challenged the recent buyer sentiment. The Bank of Japan's closely watched Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q1 2023 declined to 1.0 from the previous reading of 7.0 and an expected 3.0. Meanwhile, Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for March improved to 49.2 from 48.6, indicating a contraction in private manufacturing activities. On the other hand, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, fell to 4.6% YoY in February, below the market expectation of 4.7%. Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. The receding hawkish calls surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have also supported USD/JPY buyers. However, the market seems to have given little attention to the recent easing fears of a banking crisis and the Fed's hawkish moves. Currently, Japan's Nikkei 225 is up 1.0% intraday to 28,041, while the S&P 500 Futures snapped a three-day uptrend. The US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields are trading with mild gains near 3.52% and 4.11%, respectively, after paring the latest losses. Looking forward, USD/JPY is expected to continue its rebound amid firmer yields and a light calendar. However, any disappointment in the incoming PMIs and NFP may weigh on the US dollar prices, considering the receding hawkish bets on the Fed.
by FOREXN1
15
EUR/CAD: Possible Reversal MovementThere may be a potential reversal in the movements of EUR/CAD following the breaking of its dynamic trendline and testing the top at 1.4940. The negative correlation between EUR/CAD and EUR/USD suggests that an increase in EUR/USD and a decrease in EUR/CAD may occur. We are currently waiting for this to happen. Our indicator has already signaled a sell entry, which we have acted upon. There is a strong possibility of this trend continuing further.
by FOREXN1
10
Making The Right Decision On RE hit highs..Hey Traders, So the pound is going for a third hit in quick succession on a prev resistance zone. UK GDP news today did little to move anything at all and did not come at a suprise like the last inflation report and reaction from the UK Central Bank BOE.. WHY? Because there is no major downside sentiment whacking it down. That's why. Markets need impetus to make moves and you are lacking it at the moment. That is why falls have not been vicious and quickly rejected a local PA zones to the downside. There's no reason for it and not enough Poor GBP sentiment. We can however wait for a sentiment inflow to attain better prices. That means if you are looking short you must do so lightly especially as the level also contains ONLY weak PA. We can use our Key MA's smartly to determine where price is returning to reality off from the last harsh fall and fast rise. Closer to higgher MA's = better shorts and vice versa. The bottom Line as a channel on the chart describes where we can look to RE long on PA bounces. And absolutely you are too late and do not want to be a buyer. These are previous highs and not previous lows and you are getting a far worse deal than if you were buying on a fall of 1/2/3% to the downside. Remember, you want to pick up a good deal and you do not want to be on the bad hand inside the GBPUSD Market. Looking for shorts nearer circa 1.26+ Longs down lower nearer 1.20 Risk Averse.
by WillSebastian
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂️🟡 GOLD 4H ⏭ 1975/ 1979 ⬆HI Everyone✌As you can see, by examining XAUUSD the price fluctuated positively from the range of 1955. It is currently trading in the range of 1968. in the 4 hour time frame. We can expect the price to grow up to the target of 1975 and the range of FVG 1979/1984, and then by filling the FVG, there is a possibility of a slight correction of the price. We have to see how the price will react to the range of FVG. The desired targets are 1975/1979. Maintaining the range of 1955 is important for a positive swing. ❎ (DYOR)...⚠⚜ WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THIS ANALYSIS? I will be glad to know your idea 🙂✌ IF you like my analysis please LIKE and comment 🙏✌
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SasanSeifi
Bearish on the Euro below 1.0930Ever since the 1.1033 high from early February, it seems like the Euro is trading in a complex W-X-Y correction. The 1.0930 level reached last week is the critical point we are looking at. As long as we continue to trade below it, odds favor another run lower which should break below 1.0516, targeting at first 1.0460, the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 0.9569. A break above the mentioned resistance negates this view and confirms that the correction ended at 1.0516.
Short
by tchamoun