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The Ultra Idea : d-MR96nBa's Ultimate Market Journal🌌The Ultra Idea : d-MR96nBa's🌠Ultimate Market Journal🎨 Hello Fellow Travelers It's been some time since I've posted a Fresh Idea, though I've remained actively trading. What better way to mark my TradView return, than to start an Ultimate Market Journal. Financial Markets have taken my deep interest again recently, especially as we seem to be at a time of accelerating change and shifting regimes. I believe many opportunities abound to those with open, flexible and creative minds. A bit more about myself. I've been involved with financial markets in one form or fashion for 18 years now. I started out like most of us, approaching the game with fundamental analysis, only to later incorporate and then fully graduate to T/A. I'm a natural Contrarian. My brand of technical analysis is as much about aesthetics, creative expression, discovering hidden truths and applying Universal Principles as it is running the numbers. I'm starting this off with Ultra Bond Futures, as UB's are the trading instrument I've come to specialise in, having had the most ongoing consistent success trading. This by no means is going to be a "I bought here and sold there" type of Journal, as that's not my style. Nor am I going to focus on a single market instrument, observation or style of analysis. I'd like this to become a repository of accumulated wisdom and unique market perceptives. I've just begun contemplating what this may evolve into in time, and I invite you to join me in taking this Leap d-MR96nBa🌌 Concept Inversion📈📉 Seek out and analyse whatever moves exactly inverse to what you intend to trade. If you're having trouble discerning trend or observing price patterns, check the inverse. This can be an excellent technique for exposing Bias. This can work particularly well for currency traders, though can be Universally applied. For US Ultra Bonds, the inverse is the US 30 Year Yield Ultra Bond Futures US 30 Year Yield Currency traders, say you're about to trade AUD/CHF Check out the CHF/AUD chart first, if they both appear Bullish or Bearish, you've got a Bias. AUD/CHF CHF/AUD GBP/JPY JPY/GBP EUR/USD USD/EUR Are there any examples of Inversion in Trading you'd like to share ? What else is on my🧠 Well just casually, I believe we're currently witnessing Peak Bitcoin in it's entire Life-cycle. Have we Bull Trapped & Breakaway Gapped on Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B It's in the Detail
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
1
$3350 would indicate short-term strengthGold Price Analysis – Technical Outlook Gold is currently approaching a critical resistance level around 3350. If the price manages to break and close above this level on the 15-minute chart, it could signal the continuation of the bullish trend. A confirmed 15-minute candle close above 3350 would indicate short-term strength and increased buying pressure. To strengthen this bullish bias, we are also watching for a Break of Structure (BOS) on the 1-hour timeframe. A BOS would suggest a shift in market structure, potentially transitioning from a consolidation or retracement phase into a new impulsive leg to the upside. If both conditions – the 15M candle close above 3350 and a 1H BOS – are met, the next immediate target would be 3370. Depending on how the price action unfolds beyond that point, and supported by additional confirmations such as volume, momentum indicators, or price patterns, there could be further upside potential. As always, ensure you apply risk management and conduct your own thorough analysis before making any trading decisions. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research (DYOR).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Peter_Wade
XAUUSDGold kicks off the week with a strong bullish move — and the same applies to BTC, which is now getting very close to its all-time high. Gold is also showing impressive strength, so despite being on a lower time frame, I’ve decided to activate a Buy position on XAUUSD. 🔍 Trade Details: ✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50 ✔️ Trade Direction: Buy ✔️ Entry Price: 3308.62 ✔️ Take Profit: 3315.25 ✔️ Stop Loss: 3304.20 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I'm sharing a trade I'm personally taking based on my own strategy, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes. 📌 If you're interested in a systematic and data-driven approach to trading: 💡 Follow the page and enable notifications to stay updated on future setups, analysis, and strategic insights.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Nurlan_PT
GBP/USD Breaks Key Resistance Zone – Bullish OutlookGBP/USD has broken above a long-standing resistance zone on the weekly chart, signaling a potential shift in long-term trend. This breakout aligns with a strong rising trendline that has held firm for months, showing growing bullish momentum. If price continues to hold above the breakout level, the market could be setting up for a sustained upward move. A successful retest of the breakout zone would further confirm bullish continuation. The structure looks healthy, and the momentum is clearly on the buyer’s side. DYOR, NFA Thanks for following along — stay tuned for more updates!
Long
by unichartz
GBPUSDHello traders! There’s currently an opportunity for a Sell trade on GBPUSD, and the position is now active. 🔍 Trade Details: ✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 ✔️ Trade Direction: Sell ✔️ Entry Price: 1.33695 ✔️ Take Profit: 1.33531 ✔️ Stop Loss: 1.33777 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’m personally taking based on my own strategy. It is intended purely for educational purposes. 📌 Interested in a more systematic and data-driven approach to trading? 💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay updated with future trade ideas and market breakdowns.
Short
by Nurlan_PT
XAUUSDHello traders! I’m sharing what may be your first trade of the week. This setup comes from the XAUUSD pair. I currently see a Buy opportunity in Gold, and the trade is already active on my side. 🔍 Trade Details: ✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50 ✔️ Trade Direction: Buy ✔️ Entry Price: 3223.82 ✔️ Take Profit: 3237.39 ✔️ Stop Loss: 3214.78 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’m personally taking, based on my own methodology. It is intended purely for educational purposes. 📌 If you're interested in a more systematic and data-driven approach to trading: 💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay updated with future trade ideas and market breakdowns.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Nurlan_PT
EUR/USD – BEARISH BIAS IN PLAY, IS A FAKEOUT COMING?EUR/USD – BEARISH BIAS IN PLAY, IS A FAKEOUT COMING? 🧠 Market Context: After a technical rebound earlier this week, EUR/USD is now consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle. Despite buyers attempting a breakout, low volume and price action still below the 200 EMA indicate weak bullish momentum. The DXY is recovering on expectations the Fed will hold rates higher for longer. Meanwhile, the Euro lacks fundamental support as the ECB remains cautious with policy moves. 👉 Given the current technical setup, the higher probability scenario (70%) is a bearish breakout, continuing the dominant downtrend. 📊 Trade Scenarios for Today: ✅ High Probability – SITUATION 1 (70%): Price breaks below the triangle’s base near 1.1185–1.1190 and continues lower toward the 1.1110 demand zone. ⛔ SELL ZONE: 1.1210 – 1.1220 (after minor retest of broken trendline) 🎯 TP: 1.1180 → 1.1150 → 1.1120 → 1.1100 🛑 SL: 1.1245 (above EMA200) 🚨 Lower Probability – SITUATION 2 (30%): Price breaks out and closes firmly above the triangle and 200 EMA (~1.124x) → short-term bullish reversal. 🔵 BUY ZONE: 1.1250 – 1.1260 (only after confirmed breakout with volume) 🎯 TP: 1.1290 → 1.1325 → 1.1350 🛑 SL: 1.1215 🔍 Key Technical Levels & EMA: Resistance (200 EMA on H1): ~1.1247 Major Support Zones: 1.1180 – 1.1150 – 1.1110 🎯 Execution Strategy: Favor short setups unless a clear bullish breakout occurs above 1.1247 with strong volume. Watch for a breakdown and retest below 1.1180 to confirm bearish continuation. Avoid premature entries — let price come to your levels. ⚠️ News to Watch: No major data today, but USD is still sensitive to Fed tone and macro headlines. Keep an eye on Fed speakers later in the NY session for potential impact on dollar direction. ✅ Final Thoughts: The triangle pattern is coiling tight, but overall momentum favors sellers. Expect liquidity sweeps and volatility traps, especially around session transitions. Stick to your plan, respect your levels, and let the market decide the breakout direction.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
GBPJPYHello Traders, Today’s first setup comes from GBPJPY. Based on current market conditions, I’ve identified a high-probability sell opportunity. The trade has already been executed on my end, with a Risk-to-Reward Ratio set between 1:1.5 and 1:2, depending on your individual risk appetite. 🔍 Trade Details: ✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50 / 1:2 ✔️ Trade Direction: Sell ✔️ Entry Price: 193.564 ✔️ Take Profit: 193.256 ✔️ Stop Loss: 193.768 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I'm simply sharing a trade I’m personally taking, based on my own methodology. It is intended purely for educational purposes. 📌 If you're interested in a more systematic and data-driven approach to trading: 💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay up to date with future trade ideas and market breakdowns.
Short
by Nurlan_PT
Sellers Trapped! AUD/USD Flips Structure to BullishAustralian Dollar / U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD) 📆 Timeframe: 1-Day (1D) 📈 Technical Breakdown: 1. Sideways Consolidation Zone The price has been consolidating within a clear horizontal range. This range is defined by upper resistance and lower support zones, with several rejections confirming the boundaries. 2. Downtrend Resistance Line Broken A long-standing resistance trendline has been breached to the upside. This breakout suggests a potential trend reversal or continuation rally if price holds above. 3. Seller Trap Identified There was a strong liquidity sweep below the support zone, labeled “Sellers Got Trapped.” This is a classic liquidity grab, where shorts were likely triggered before price reversed sharply upward. 4. EMA 50 as Dynamic Support Price has reclaimed the 50 EMA (0.62701), indicating a shift in short-term momentum towards the bulls. If the price remains above this moving average, it could act as a dynamic support in the near term. 5. RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 57.62 RSI is in bullish neutral territory, suggesting there’s still room for upward momentum before overbought levels (>70). No bearish divergence is currently visible. ✅ Bullish Outlook: Breakout above resistance trendline ✅ Recovery above EMA 50 ✅ Seller trap below range ✅ RSI supports further move ✅
Long
by unichartz
EUR/USD – Golden Crossover & Breakout Confirmation (Multi-T.F)EUR/USD is showing strong bullish signs across both the weekly and daily timeframes, suggesting a potential macro trend reversal in the making. After being trapped below a long-term descending trendline for nearly two years, price has not only broken out but also successfully retested the breakout zone — a key validation for trend continuation. On the daily chart, a Golden Crossover is now forming, which historically precedes major uptrends in forex pairs. Combined with reclaiming key structural levels and building higher lows, EUR/USD could be positioning for a powerful upside move in Q2 2025. Let’s dive into the multi-timeframe analysis to understand why this setup could be one of the cleanest trend reversals on the board. 1W Timeframe – Macro Breakout in Progress EUR/USD has officially broken out of a long-standing descending resistance trendline. This breakout occurred from a structurally important zone that had acted as a ceiling for over 2 years. 📌 Key Observations: 🔹 Price reclaimed and held above the key resistance zone, turning it into strong support. 🔹 Minor resistance zones lie ahead, but structure favors further upside. 🔹 Projection shows potential continuation toward 1.16+ if momentum sustains. 1D Timeframe – Bullish Retest + Golden Cross Forming Zooming into the daily chart, we see: ✅ A successful retest of the breakout zone, which held as support (bullish confirmation). ✅ Price is now forming a Golden Crossover – where the 50 EMA is crossing above the 200 EMA. This is typically seen as a strong bullish signal in trending markets. 📌 What’s Bullish: Clean breakout ✔️ Retest with strength ✔️ Momentum crossover ✔️ EUR/USD is now in a strong bullish structure, backed by a confirmed breakout on the weekly and a golden crossover on the daily. If price holds above 1.09, we may see continued upside toward 1.13–1.16 levels in the coming weeks. Thank you for reading and supporting @unichartz. If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to like, follow, and share! 💙
Long
by unichartz
EUR/JPY Eyes Breakout — Can Bulls Push Through Resistance?EUR/JPY Weekly Chart Analysis EUR/JPY is holding strong above a rising trendline that’s acted as support since 2022. The pair recently bounced from a key support zone and is now testing a major resistance area. A breakout above this zone could trigger a bullish continuation, while rejection may lead to another pullback toward the trendline. Key Levels: Support: 153.5–155.0 Resistance: 163.5–165.0 Watch for: Weekly close above resistance for bullish confirmation. Structure remains bullish as long as the trendline holds.
Long
by unichartz
EUR/USD at a Pivotal Level – Will Bulls Push Higher?The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of a trend reversal after breaking above a long-term descending trendline. This breakout, coupled with an inverse head and shoulders pattern and RSI bullish divergence, signals strengthening bullish momentum. However, the price faces key resistance around 1.0500-1.0527, aligned with the 200 EMA. A confirmed break above this level could push the pair toward 1.10+, while failure to do so may lead to a pullback before another attempt higher.
Long
by unichartz
Behind the Curtain The Economic Pulse Behind Euro FX1. Introduction Euro FX Futures (6E), traded on the CME, offer traders exposure to the euro-dollar exchange rate with precision, liquidity, and leverage. Whether hedging European currency risk or speculating on macro shifts, Euro FX contracts remain a vital component of global currency markets. But what truly moves the euro? Beyond central bank meetings and headlines, the euro reacts sharply to macroeconomic data that signals growth, inflation, or risk appetite. Using a Random Forest Regressor, we explored how economic indicators correlate with Euro FX Futures returns across different timeframes. In this article, we uncover which metrics drive the euro daily, weekly, and monthly, offering traders a structured, data-backed approach to navigating the Euro FX landscape. 2. Understanding Euro FX Futures Contracts The CME offers two primary Euro FX Futures products: o Standard Euro FX Futures (6E): Contract Size: 125,000 € Tick Size: 0.000050 per euro = $6.25 per tick per contract Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours, Sunday to Friday (US) o Micro Euro FX Futures (M6E): Contract Size: 12,500 € (1/10th the size of 6E) Tick Size: 0.0001 per euro = $1.25 per tick per contract Accessible to: Smaller accounts, strategy testers, and traders managing precise exposure o Margins: 6E Initial Margin: ≈ $2,600 per contract (subject to volatility) M6E Initial Margin: ≈ $260 per contract Whether trading full-size or micro contracts, Euro FX Futures offer capital-efficient access to one of the most liquid currency pairs globally. Traders benefit from leverage, scalability, and transparent pricing, with the ability to hedge or speculate on Euro FX trends across timeframes. 3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators For day traders, short-term price action in the euro often hinges on rapidly released data that affects market sentiment and intraday flow. According to machine learning results, the top 3 daily drivers are: Housing Starts: Surging housing starts in the U.S. can signal economic strength and pressure the euro via stronger USD flows. Conversely, weaker construction activity may weaken the dollar and support the euro. Consumer Sentiment Index: A sentiment-driven metric that reflects household confidence. Optimistic consumers suggest robust consumption and a firm dollar, while pessimism may favor EUR strength on defensive rotation. Housing Price Index (HPI): Rising home prices can stoke inflation fears and central bank hawkishness, affecting yield differentials between the euro and the dollar. HPI moves often spark short-term FX volatility. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Swing traders looking for trends spanning several sessions often lean on energy prices and labor data. Weekly insights from our Random Forest model show these three indicators as top drivers: WTI Crude Oil Prices: Oil prices affect global inflation and trade dynamics. Rising WTI can fuel EUR strength if it leads to USD weakness via inflation concerns or reduced real yields. Continuing Jobless Claims: An uptick in claims may suggest softening labor conditions in the U.S., potentially bullish for EUR as it implies slower Fed tightening or economic strain. Brent Crude Oil Prices: As the global benchmark, Brent’s influence on inflation and trade flows is significant. Sustained Brent rallies could create euro tailwinds through weakening dollar momentum. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Position traders and institutional participants often focus on macroeconomic indicators with structural weight—those that influence monetary policy direction, capital flow, and long-term sentiment. The following three monthly indicators emerged as dominant forces shaping Euro FX Futures: Industrial Production: A cornerstone of economic output, rising industrial production reflects strong manufacturing activity. Strong U.S. numbers can support the dollar, while a slowdown may benefit the euro. Likewise, weaker European output could undermine EUR demand. Velocity of Money (M2): This metric reveals how quickly money is circulating in the economy. A rising M2 velocity suggests increased spending and inflationary pressures—potentially positive for the dollar and negative for the euro. Falling velocity signals stagnation and may shift flows into the euro as a lower-yield alternative. Initial Jobless Claims: While often viewed weekly, the monthly average could reveal structural labor market resilience. A rising trend may weaken the dollar, reinforcing EUR gains as expectations for interest rate cuts grow. 6. Strategy Alignment by Trading Style Each indicator offers unique insights depending on your approach to market participation: Day Traders: Focus on the immediacy of daily indicators like Housing Starts, Consumer Sentiment, and Housing Price Index. Swing Traders: Leverage weekly indicators like Crude Oil Prices and Continuing Claims to ride mid-term moves. Position Traders: Watch longer-term data such as Industrial Production and M2 Velocity. 7. Risk Management Currency futures provide access to high leverage and broad macro exposure. With that comes responsibility. Traders must actively manage position sizing, volatility exposure, and stop placement. Economic indicators inform price movement probabilities—not certainties—making risk protocols just as essential as trade entries. 8. Conclusion Euro FX Futures are shaped by a deep web of macroeconomic forces. From Consumer Sentiment and Oil Prices to Industrial Production and Money Velocity, each indicator tells part of the story behind Euro FX movement. Thanks to machine learning, we’ve spotlighted the most impactful data across timeframes, offering traders a framework to align their approach with the heartbeat of the market. As we continue the "Behind the Curtain" series, stay tuned for future editions uncovering the hidden economic forces behind other major futures markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by traddictiv