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FXY

Trade Idea: FXY December 16th 2 x 67/December 16th 72 Call RatioWith the yen at multi-year lows, looking to take a bullish assumption directional shot with plenty of time to work out in the Yen proxy, FXY. The basic setup is to buy 2 x the 75 delta strikes and sell the 50's, resulting in a ~100 net delta long setup with a hypothetically infinite maximum profit. Currently, the setup is pricing out at 9.90 with a 71.95 break even, which is slightly above where the underlying is trading pre-market. Will post if I get filled.
AMEX:FXYLong
by NaughtyPines
4
Another Strong Jobs Report Paints A Bullish HueIt has been a while since I took note of the impact of economic numbers on the Australian dollar (FXA). For most of this year, I have instead been a lot more focused on what the Australian dollar, combined with the Japanese yen (FXY), might be saying about risk attitudes in financial markets. Today, I finally took note of economic drivers. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) delivered another strong jobs report for the Australian economy: “The trend unemployment rate fell from 5.2 per cent to 5.1 per cent in the month of October 2018…Today’s fall in trend unemployment to 5.1 per cent marks the lowest unemployment rate since early 2012. This month is the 25th consecutive monthly increase in employed full-time persons with an average increase of 20,300 employed per month…” The Australian dollar jumped in response. The 5-minute chart below of AUD/JPY shows the immediate pop. The daily chart shows the likely bullishness of this move. So far, it looks like AUD/JPY confirmed a new 200DMA breakout. The currency pair could be off to the races if it surpasses the highs from last week. {Most of the pop in AUD/JPY occurred in the first 5 minutes after the jobs numbers were released. It took over three hours for momentum to start picking up again. AUD/JPY broke out above its 200DMA last week and retested it this week. The jobs numbers helped confirm a successful test.} Interestingly, the odds for the next rate hike are far out into the future. So if these economic numbers are harbingers of a strong or strengthening economy, the potential for a rate “surprise” must be increasing. In other words, I need to maintain a bullish bias on the Australian dollar as the odds seem to favor a more hawkish statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the near future. I can only imagine how much the Australian dollar could soar whenever trade tensions between the U.S. and China ease. {The market is not expecting a full 25bps rate hike until February, 2020.} For now, RBA interest rates remain at historic lows.
Long
by drduru
USDJPY: Critical level testedUSDJPY has hit the previous monthly uptrend mode, and is currently stuck inside this zone. It would be a colossal feat, for Yen bulls to drive the pair under this key level, so I will watch it with keen eyes during this week. I'll update the post with intraday and daily/weekly charts as needed. It would give us clues about the future of the S&P500 and Nikkei, if we see the smart money players start to accumulate long positions again. After Monday's close, I'll add a 'Brexit key level' to the chart in an update, and will monitor price action closely from here onwards. I labeled a monthly downtrend signal, as per the 'time at mode' method, comprised of 7 months worth, and a price target that was exceeded already. There are 2 bars left for this decline to potentially end, and send USDJPY back up to the highs, unless yen bulls are strong enough to push the pair below support. Keep your eyes wide open, this is a really significant level, and from here we might get a terrific trading opportunity once the direction is clear, wether the downtrend ends or it continues further down to the 2011 lows. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
by IvanLabrie
1
Gold/Stocks ratio: Long gold, close equity longs/find shortsThis ratio gives very timely signals as to when to more optimally switch between risk on or risk off biases. It's clear that we can long gold, bonds and yen now, I'd be careful with equities, at least not going long indexes, or looking for shorts in weaker securities would be my favored approach. I have booked profits on a few profitable long trades, and reentered gold and bond longs. Waiting for an optimal entry to long Yen again. I did short it after the BOJ news, but I have covered for now since we found support at the previous lows. Check my other publication for the suggested long entry and stop locations for gold longs. If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
7