XRP short zoneQuick swing trade I am be playing. The amount is small and leveraged with a stop loss as it has a reasonable chance of failing and failing quickly. Top buyers from previous pump are either still trapped or sold at a loss. The coloured zones are levels of sell pressure where trapped buyers either escape (A) or where market makers exit the stressed/liquidated counter positions.
The major issue with this position is that the price range above dark red has basically no sell pressure other than profit taking so use dark red as a stop loss to escape destruction.
Gamma
BOOM! GME recovers to $320 KLI called this earlier, I believe that GME stock is very valuable because games are fun and I hear that hedge funds are desperate for this stock because they think it's going to rise.
This is of course speculation but it just so happens that these trends aren't so hard to spot guys. Just buy GME and hold it for some time and the business will be able to start making acquisitions to cement its value. The sky's the limit; besides, you have an insurance policy! The hedge funds have committed to buying back your stock already :)
GME BABY! HOLD TO THE MOON* short interest: 75.54% of float by Ortex, 113.31% of float by S3 Shortsight
* short share public availability: 0
Shorts are exiting their positions, but an amount of shares equal or almost equal to float is still shorted.
robinhood and other brokerages didn't have the capital to place buy orders at times yesterday.
Robinhood is apparently going so far as to liquidate GME shares in accounts that are not using margin trading(!) If you're still on robinhood, you should find a new broker ASAP.
Retail brokers who didn't blow up completely yesterday include:
* vanguard
* td ameritrade
* fidelity
XRP very bullish on the daily time frameXRPUSD looks like its continuing it's uptrend! As you can see, a nice Bull Flag has been formed with Fib level 0.386 coming in to help out with support after recent drop to 0.5578. I expect a continuation of price action to the upside using Rule 7 Calculator levels of 0.7050, 0.7600, 0.8600 as my 3 targets. The pulse indicator is still firing to the upside with blue gamma confirmation. The general trend is up so continuation of bullish momentum is likely.
If XRP decides to break lower, I expect a retracement back to the 21 EMA & correlated Fib level of 0.236 @ 0.52 cents.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Rotation hedge with Energy ETFOk boyz, so you guys are strong believer in momentum, you've ran your backtests on US Sectors and fund out that with a roughly 55% probability the best performers of last year will be the best performers of the next year. So you are still long tech like crazy and believe the FAANG stocks will keep rising. However what does financial professionals like to do? They hedge part of their risk, they maximize their sharp ratio by minimizing volatility with diversification in uncorrelated assets.
What is your biggest risk right now? With a new vaccine on the way? => A big rotation of smart money from leaders (tech, healthcare) to laggards (Energy, Financials, Transportation, REITS). It's already happening right now.
XLE US is down 45% year to date, it is the ultimate laggard ! And you know what? Historical probability of worst laggard to move to the top five leaders of next year is 65%, odds are in our favor.
The ETF showed strong momentum last week with a nice weekly hammer candlestick with strong volume, this is a bullish reversion pattern. Let's wait for confirmation on Monday's open, if it confirms, we are catching the first wave to a nice ride up ! up to recovery and post covid world. The vaccine wont be massively available and massively distributed before mid 2021 I believe, HOWEVER the stock market is merely the second order of the real economy, not the first order! It is the acceleration of the economy, so as soon as the vaccine is being shoot the first person, the widespread reopening will increase tremendously.
Option 101 => acceleration = second order = GAMMA, we want to be long gamma right now => buy calls 3 months on XLE. To save some carry cost, i would suggest a strike at 110% of the current spot, this translate to a roughly 35% Delta. This is quite out of the money but i believe the volatility on this sector is going to up with the spot.
my pick : call 31Mar2021 strike 37. Delta = 24%,
Remember: this strategy makes sense if your portfolio is globally long tech, and please do not risk more than 5% of your portfolio value with the premium. This is not WSB :D
Playing against the large 300 level Call WallFor expiration September 20th we have a very large call wall at 300 in $SPY and 3000 SPX. We're shorting here with a stop just above. Considering FOMC next week as well we think its a good place to sell some upside premium or scalp some shorts down to 297.5/295 support. Because the market is long a long of gamma we don't see a large selloff materializing before the FOMC.
Finally a decent Range to Play in $SPY $SPXAfter weeks of very wide ranges we see “trade-able” ranges forming. 2950 form as a bit of an upside resistance level. 2900 is also building as support as we move towards September Op-Ex. From our models perspective it seems like a decent bet we stay in this 2900-2950 range for the next few days. 3000 is still a very large hurdle overhead. From our note on spotgamma.com
Well, that escalated quickly. $SPYOvernight ramp on whatever news puts us back in long gamma territory. Headline/tweet risk aside that puts the market back in lower volatility mode where >1% moves shouldn't be the norm. Looking for a short term consolidation drift here due to dealers being long gamma.
I SPY a Large ChannelIn SPX and SPY we have 2900/291 as zero gamma meaning dealers are going to help buy stocks on a rally up to 2900/291. These levels are based on the SpotGamma options model. Over that there has to be real buyers to continue up. 285/2850 has held recently and is a large area of put open interest. That could provide support. Expect whippy markets until then unless we get solidly over 2900/291. Over that level it will be a grind. Whats needed to clear up this range is concrete, real resolution of trade and interest rate unknowns.
It Ain't Over Yet $SPXUntil the 2900 volatility trigger kicks in there is amplified risk to downside. 2900 is where options dealers flip from short gamma to long ie from "volatility fueling" to "volatility dampening". That's not a bearish call - simply means that risks of a 1-2% down move in very short order is still there. Market needs a real catalyst to move higher, other over 2900 itll probably just be a grind.
A Tweet is All It Takes: Short Gamma Update $SPXDealers are still short gamma until the market is over 2900. Based on last several days this indicates 2900 could be a decent topping target. Large Put open interest at 2850 may provide support. Because dealers are short gamma then will fuel the market higher or lower when the direction gets set. In summary: volatility is likely to continue unless markets push through 2900.
Downside risk outweights upsideNo idea which direction comes after the Fed today but based on the options market it appears that any negative news will be met with strong selling by options dealers and could make a large move down possible. Good news could see a decent rally, but there is resistance forming at 2950 and larger resistance at 3000. In other words it appears that a chance of a move down of >1% outweighs the odds of a move up over >1%.
Markets Cant Move Above Volatility TriggerMarkets had to hold 2920 to break the volatility cycle from last week. Under that level market makers will amplify and selloff. The fact that the market buyers couldnt overcome just a bit of dealer selling isn't great. FOMC minutes Wednesday and Jackson Hold starting Friday.