NDX Trading-RoadMap
Weekly
• Context: Overall uptrend from 2022 is intact but under pressure as price slipped below some key weekly moving averages and trendline supports.
• Key Takeaway: The bigger picture has not fully turned bearish yet, but momentum has cooled. If the weekly chart remains above ~17,800–18,000, that “long‐term uptrend” viewpoint is still viable.
Daily
• Trend: Lower highs and lower lows (short‐term downtrend). Price is below the 200‐day SMA (~20,300) and also below the 50/100‐day SMAs (~21,000).
• Focus: Watch if price can reclaim the 200‐day SMA (20,200–20,700 zone) on a daily closing basis. That’s a major pivot for a potential reversal to the upside.
• Support: 19,000–19,200 is the near‐term floor; losing that puts 18,400–18,800 in play.
• Resistance: 19,900–20,100 (initial supply), then 20,200–20,700 (200‐day + Fib).
4H (Shorter‐Term)
• Recent Development: A bounce off ~19,150. MACD turned bullish on 4H, RSI improved from oversold.
• Trendline: The steep 4H downtrend line has been broken; price is testing overhead supply near 19,900–20,000.
• Key Focus: Does the 4H momentum carry price above 20,000+? If so, next stops are 20,200–20,700. If it stalls, watch for a return to ~19,200 or lower.
2. Key Levels to Track
1. Immediate Support Zones
• 19,600–19,700: Minor 4H pivot / mid Bollinger band on 4H.
• 19,000–19,200: Major short‐term floor; also a bullish order block from prior lows.
2. Deeper Supports
• 18,400–18,800: Strong demand if 19k fails.
• 17,800–18,000: Critical weekly zone, where the longer‐term uptrend would truly be at risk.
3. Immediate Resistance Zones
• 19,900–20,100: Overhead supply on Daily/4H; first real challenge for bulls.
• 20,200–20,700: Major confluence (200‐day SMA, Bollinger mid band on Daily, Ichimoku lower cloud boundary).
• 21,000–22,200: Larger daily/weekly supply if the index fully recovers.
4. Fibonacci Confluences
• From the larger swing: 50% retracement ~19,893.
• From the smaller daily swing: 23.6% ~19,886, 50% ~20,706.
• Keep an eye if price clusters or reverses around these fib levels.
3. Indicators You’ll Watch Each Day
• Daily Ichimoku: Price below the cloud → short‐term bias still bearish. A daily close back inside/above the cloud (~20,200–20,400) would be a significant bullish sign.
• Daily MACD: Still negative, but flattening. A bullish crossover on the daily could confirm the 4H bounce is turning into a multi‐day uptrend.
• Daily RSI: Hovering near 40–45. If it reclaims 50+, that’s a better sign of daily upside momentum.
• 4H MACD: Already bullish; watch if it remains that way or starts to roll over near resistance.
• 4H RSI: Currently ~45–50 or slightly higher. Over 60 would reinforce short‐term upside.
• Volume / OBV: See if up moves come on higher volume or if OBV slopes upward. That would show genuine buying pressure.
4. Daily Checklist / “If‐Then” Triggers
Use this section as a morning or intraday reference when you see price approaching certain zones.
A) Bullish Attempt
• IF price breaks above ~19,900–20,000 THEN:
• Check for 4H or daily candle close above that zone.
• Confirm if 4H MACD/RSI remain bullish.
• Potential next target: ~20,200–20,700.
• IF price subsequently closes above 20,200–20,300 THEN:
• This reclaims the 200‐day SMA → a bigger shift to bullish.
• Daily RSI likely near or above 50.
• Next target: ~21,000–21,500, with an eye on the 22k supply zone.
• IF 19,600–19,700 holds as support on a pullback, THEN watch for 4H bullish patterns to confirm a bounce. Potential to re‐attempt 19,900–20,000.
B) Bearish Continuation
• IF price rejects ~19,900–20,100 (4H or daily closes back under 19,600) THEN:
• Expect a drift back to test 19,200–19,000.
• Check if 4H RSI crosses below 40, MACD turns down again.
• If that zone fails, 18,800–18,400 is next support.
• IF daily closes below 19,000 THEN:
• The bullish bounce scenario is invalidated.
• Target a deeper move to 18,400–18,800, possibly 18,000 if momentum is strong.
5. What to Avoid
1. Over‐Leveraging: With the index near pivotal levels, volatility can spike. Keep position sizes within your risk tolerance.
2. Chasing Mid‐Zone: If price is between major zones (e.g., 19,600–19,700), entering randomly without a clear signal can lead to whipsaws. Wait for a confirmed break or test of a zone.
3. Ignoring Conflicting Timeframes: Weekly vs. Daily vs. 4H may conflict. If you see a 4H bullish signal but daily is still firmly bearish, manage risk accordingly (e.g., smaller size, quicker profit targets).
6. Risk Management & Positioning
• Stop Placement:
• For short‐term trades, use 4H ATR (~300 points) or place stops just beyond key swing highs/lows.
• For swing trades, consider daily ATR (~400–450 points) to avoid normal intraday noise.
• Targets:
• Set at least two profit objectives. For bullish trades, T1 near 20,200–20,300, T2 near 21k+. For bearish trades, T1 near 19k, T2 near 18.4k.
• Moving Stops to Breakeven:
• Once T1 is reached or a clear pivot forms in your favor, consider moving your stop to entry to lock in any open profit.
7. Potential News/Events That May Override Technicals
• U.S. Economic Data: Watch for major releases (CPI, Fed announcements, Tech sector earnings). These can create sudden volatility that breaks your technical zones.
• Global Sentiment Shifts: If risk aversion hits equity markets broadly, NDX could gap lower through supports. Alternatively, any strong bullish news in major tech names could swiftly break resistances.
8. Weekly Summary Action Plan
1. Check Weekly & Daily:
• Are we still below the daily 200‐SMA (~20,300)? If yes, short‐term momentum is likely bearish unless proven otherwise by the 4H breakout.
• Is the index forming a weekly candle that regains the prior trend channel or 50‐week SMA? That would be a bullish sign.
2. Monitor 19,900–20,100 & 19,000:
• These levels will dictate a lot of the week’s direction. A break above 20,000 on solid volume is your bullish trigger; a fail at 19,900 or a breakdown below 19,000 reaffirms the bearish narrative.
3. Intraday (4H) Observation:
• If price hovers between 19,600 and 19,900, remain cautious until a decisive push emerges.
• Use the 4H MACD/RSI to gauge if momentum is building up (or rolling over).
4. Risk Profile Guidance:
• Aggressive: Trade around 19,600–19,700 with tight stops, aiming for quick breaks.
• Moderate: Wait for 4H closes above or below key pivot zones (19,900–20,000 or 19,200–19,000).
• Conservative: Look for daily closes beyond 20,200 or under 19,000 before committing to positions.
5. Adapt & React:
• If you see a bullish break that fails intraday (price wicks above 19,900 but closes back below 19,600 on a 4H candle), that’s a potential short signal.
• Conversely, if price dips intraday to 19,200–19,300, but the 4H closes back above 19,600, that’s a potential bullish reversal cue.
Gann
Gold price analysis March 21⭐️Fundamental Analysis
The Federal Reserve’s forecast of only two 25 basis point (bps) rate cuts by the end of the year helped the US Dollar (USD) gain positive momentum for the third consecutive day, which, in turn, is seen as undermining the commodity. The decline could also be due to some profit-taking heading into the weekend.
However, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue its rate-cutting cycle will limit the USD’s gains and act as a non-yielding driver for Gold prices. Moreover, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies and their impact on the global economic outlook, coupled with geopolitical risks, deter traders from placing strong bearish bets on the safe-haven bullion.
⭐️Technical analysis
D1 candle has started to show a bearish candle after many consecutive days of increase. However, the buyers have pushed the price from the 3026 area, showing that a strong buying force is still in this area.
The European session, gold traded within the 3025 and 3038 range, the h4 structure shows this. Gold is pushing up to 3038, until the end of the European session, gold cannot break 3038, giving a SELL signal to 3025, the US breaks 3025, then it heads towards support 3008. In the opposite direction, Gold pushes back to 3025 first and does not break this area in the European session, giving a BUY signal to 3038 and heads towards ATH when the US breaks this area. Pay attention to the 2 areas of 3025 and 3038 to trade breakouts.
Gold is holding up correction as it establishes a topGold is holding up correction as it establishes a top
Continues to rise as it breaks through the top at 3057.6
Confirms short-term downtrend as it breaks through the bottom at 3022.8
Can trade in correction market now as it establishes sideways, trade in small range as there is clear trend
#xauusd
TESLA GOLDEN CHART ANALYSISI have analyzed Tesla with price & time square. I have considered Trend , chart pattern & Gann techniques. There is like chance that it will hit the low by 22-April 2025. Tesla is weak in Sales in last quarter. And in this quarter also number will be coming poor. Target is apple. This is for study purpose.
TOP IS NOT IN YET (MORE UPSIDE AFTER THE MINOR CORRECTIONS)We discussed the 5-year bull cycle that starts off every 20-year cycle. We identified that the current 5-year bull cycle will be one of the wildest in the history of the DJIA market by virtue of the current energy level within the log expansion. We will start a new progressive series to discuss the current 20-year cycle in motion.
First we will look closely at these three different 20-year cycles
From the three cycles we can identify a peculiar recurring structure, that is, after the approximately 5th year top we have a wild decline that averagely bottoms below the starting price. We will not dwell much on this cycle as it's not the current cycle in progress. Between these cycles is an (Alternate Cycle) that also has a similar fractal construction.
The first two alternate cycles directly lie between the cycles identified earlier and have a similar fractal. The most striking identity of these alternate cycles is that the origin point is the lowest point within the 20 year trend. The correction from the 5th year top is not so steep and never goes below the origin
The 1942/1962 cycle lies between the 1921/1942 and 1962/1982 cycles
The 1982/2002 cycle lies between the 1962/1982 and 2002/2022 cycles
This means the next alternate 20-year cycle is the 2022/2042 cycle which will lie between 2002/2022 and 2042/2062 cycles. From the internal construction of this cycle we can dive deeper and model the structure forward in both price and time. Example, the vertical price axis for the 1942/1962 cycle was (+648.61 pts) and total horizontal time elapsed was (+1052 wks).
We have a (648.61 x 1052) structure showing a perfect golden ratio of price and time
(1052 / 648.61) = 1.6219
1982/2002 cycle had price axis = 1098.03 pts and time = 1052 wks
We have approximately a 1098.03 x 1052 square of price and time
By observing the cumulative growth pattern we can make projection of the current cycle in progress. We would go through the growth gradually and identify price and time resistances as price action progresses. Please check back as we build step by step the growth structure of the current cycle.
Trade safe
XAUUSD:20/3 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold Technology Analysis
Daily chart resistance is 3050-3100, support is 3000 below
Four-hour chart resistance 3080, support 3030 below
One-hour chart resistance 3054, support 3042 below
Analysis of gold news: Spot gold fluctuated narrowly on Thursday, and gold prices continued to rise after Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech. Spot gold once broke through the $3,050/ounce mark, setting a historical record. The Fed announced the keeping interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting and hinted that interest rate cuts could be cut twice this year while slowing down the pace of balance sheet reduction. This series of measures has triggered a decline in the US dollar's gains and a decline in US Treasury yields, providing rising momentum for gold prices. This trading day requires attention to the Bank of England's interest rate resolution, changes in the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States, the United States' February existing home sales data and geopolitical situation related news.
Gold operation suggestions: Gold stabilized yesterday at the 3022 mark and continued to fluctuate strongly and break the high trend. Asian and European session prices rose slightly and pierced through the 3045 mark and fell under pressure. European session fluctuated and fell and stabilized at the 3022 mark. Then it rebounded and rose. The US session fell for the second time and stabilized at the 3026 mark. Then the gold price accelerated to pull up and broke through the 3050 mark and closed strongly at almost the highest point in the day.
Judging from the current trend analysis, the lower support is focused on the one-hour level 3042 and the four-hour level 3030 line, and the important support is focused on the daily level 3000 line. Relying on this position, it continues to be bullish. The target position above is still focused on breaking through new highs. Before the daily level falls below the lower support, it still keeps buying with the trend.
Buy: 3032near SL: 3028
Buy: 3042near SL: 3038
ECB Rate Cut Hopes Fade, EUR/USD Nears 1.0900EUR/USD fell for a second day, nearing 1.0900 in the Asian session. The pair found support as the dollar weakened on falling Treasury yields after the Fed reaffirmed plans for two rate cuts. However, uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies kept sentiment cautious.
In Europe, German lawmakers approved a debt plan by likely Chancellor Friedrich Merz to increase growth and defense spending. A shift from Germany’s conservative fiscal stance could drive inflation and influence ECB policy.
Investors await ECB President Lagarde’s speech on economic and monetary affairs in Brussels on Thursday.
Key resistance is at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000 and 1.1050. Support stands at 1.0880, with further levels at 1.0800 and 1.0730.